Ukraine War Update NEWS (20240417a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Massive Strike on Dzhankoy
Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
Del's open-source Russian loss stats:
onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?r...
Bill's stats dashboard: www.ukrainewarstatistics.com/
Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and KZhead channel. www.redbubble.com/people/john...
Buy me a coffee: www.buymeacoffee.com/GkxsyfQ
Paypal Donate: www.paypal.com/paypalme/johnn...
UA Supporter merch: uasupporter.com/atp
Check out this website of pro-Ukrainian inks:
www.heroyam.org/slava_ukraini
Discord: / discord
Videos/sources:
Hits/losses
twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/st...
twitter.com/shashj/status/178...
twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/s...
twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/...
Strikes
twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/s...
twitter.com/wartranslated/sta...
twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/...
twitter.com/Tendar/status/178...
twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/s...
twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/...
twitter.com/HamWa07/status/17...
twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/s...
twitter.com/ukraine_map/statu...
twitter.com/blyskavka_ua/stat...
twitter.com/blyskavka_ua/stat...
twitter.com/Tendar/status/178...
twitter.com/wartranslated/sta...
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0:00 Start
1:00 Hits/losses
21:50 Strikes
35:54 Other
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DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
1) These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
2) These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
3) All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
4) Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
5) Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
6) Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
7) Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
8) All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
9) Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Good mornign JP and family - I think your family likely provides substantial support for your work so I want to pass on a 👍 for them :)
Hello 👋 and happy hump 🐫 day.
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hello from Canada, overcast and chiily here today. Hope you are having better weather. Gotta love Hump day :)
Well said!
40K subscribers....well deserved. Lets get this up to 50K people.
TARGET: 250k before Christmas
Thanks JP, morning all 🫡 Eagerly awaiting news about Dzhankoi 🇺🇦
Greetings and G'Day 😁👍Thanks for your updates at this time on this day...remember @ATPG... "its not about me not about you...its about the music"👊😎
Spinnin' those hit sounds that get you downtown!
😀✨🌻
Question for the trolls: Ukraine MOD claims only 4 tanks for today, but Andrew's list have 7 tanks visually confirmed damaged/destroyed. I don't hear you complain when the visual evidence is bigger than what Ukraine MOD claims, but only the other way around?
great point
Silence from the trolls. Well done Lasse 👍
Thank you from this random American
Hey Team!
Hi Steve
Hey Steve!
Hi Steve A
Hi Steve, happy hump 🐫 day 🏜
Just habe to throw that in, man, Jonathan, Sir: Canada rocks!: BTO, Loverboy, Saga, Rush (!), Triumph, April Wine, Boulevard etc etc. Cheers
Hello all!
Hi Mika
@@Finnishguy777 Terve!
Hey Mika!
@@petervandermierden9346 Hi Peter!
Happy Wednesday evening Mika ❤
Canadian music you must hear: Gordon Lightfoot; The Guess Who; RUSH; Oscer Peterson 🇨🇦 ❤ 🇺🇦 ❤ 🇬🇧
🇨🇦🇺🇦 Morning hugs to everyone ❣️🎶 ..and thanks JP🌻💙💛
Hi Tania, here is a hug from 4 dogs 🤗 💐
@@surpriseitsus9622 💜 awww, needed that ❣️thank you and hugs back to the pack 🐕💟
Hello from Canada! I've been watching you since the war started, great job. You mentioned canadian bands, have a listen to The Tragically Hip. Take care.
Russia struggling with Ukraine and picking a fight with Israel, can one say over stretched
Morning JP.
Good morning 👍
G'day CFG 👋😊🌻
Have a great Wednesday 🏜
Good Morning Jonathan and the ATP team
Happy hump 🐫 day Richard 😊
@@surpriseitsus9622 Nice Greeting Lynn😀
Props for the Godspeed You Black Emperor shoutout. Truly music for our times.
I listened to Neil Young this morning
Keep on rocking in the free world
His biggest influence was Bert Jansch
Hello Team, Thank you Jonathan,
Hi Finnishguy ❤
@@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn, hope you have nice day
Morning JP Greetings troops 👍😊
Morning Team, Jonno and all wellthinking others. Have a nice wednesday!😊
You too Peter
Happy Wednesday Peter 🌴 🏜
Ello ello
How is ya ?😊
Hello 👋 Julian 😊
Good morning everyone!😊👍👍👍
Hi Sheryl!😊
Good morning Sheryl
@@greenhighlander7 Morning Mika!☺
@@Finnishguy777 Morning Tomi!☺
Hi Sheryl 💐
Thank you for reporting Jonathan, and as a resident of Vancouver Canada, Go Canucks!
Closer to the Heart by Rush isn't a bad track as Canadian songs go. Cheers for the vid. Ukraine has M-270 and MARS launchers. They have two launchers to HIMARS' one so they only would have needed three of them to launch 6 ATACMS.
Good morning Jonathan and folks enjoy you day everyone 🇨🇦☕
G'day Bud, enjoy that coffee ☕ 😊
Morning! You tuu, thank you
Hi Bud ☕
The strike on Dzhankoy almost certainly hit a large ammo storage facility. Russians are unlikely to house such a large storage above ground, so bunker penetrating missiles were likely used. You do not get a 5-hour cook-off from only hitting an S400 battery.
Precisely.
How’s about Rush? JP they rock like you🙏🇺🇦 🇨🇦👍
Thank you, Jonathan for part one👍👍👍👍
GREAT JOB JP.......keep up the good work.....instead of an OBE you should get an OUE..order of ukrainian empire award when this is all over
Thank you Jonathan saw you with Rick, now I'm catching up again! Slava Ukraini 💙💛🇺🇦
Morning Jonathan. Excellent outfit. Keep up the good work. SLAVA UKRAINI from the United States
A "fun" comparison to Wagner: as horrible as we often hear the conditions were on pirate ships 18th century, very often these were people who had escaped the British (or other) navy, because those treated their sailors even worse.
I would expect Moscow to be extra stingy, and if a combatant's injuries exacerbated after returning home, I expect their passing wouldn't be classed as a casualty of war, even though they'd still be alive had they not been injured initially.
First !
👋😊🌻 .. 👍
Pakistan switch off X stating misuse and abuse plus unwillingness of the company to address the issue
I want a trident cap like that!
The Russians are in to their third 250,000+ recruitment. Half a million is the minimum that they've lost. I don't think anyone goes home.
Cheers JP!
👋😊🌻
As usual, wait for the satellite imagery.
Thank you Jonathan 👍🇺🇦
The Diodes. A great new wave band in the 80s!
09:50 - On the Ukrainian side, one should never forget all the civilian casualties and those Ukrainians who have perished in the occupied regions or in Russian captivity.
Great reporting as usual JP, thank you for the news update around Ukraine.
Don't forget that Gerasimov was fired shortly after his reappearance.
You like godspeed!? my maaaan:) seen them live once, where the bonus number was 45 minutes lol. they also left written poems all over the venue. Love that band!
👋💙💛✌💯
Hi Jason, hope you have good day
@@Finnishguy777 Good Day my Friend! So I will be keeping my mouth shot in the Livestreams and on Comments! I am here to learn not really to argue with teammates over Caps! I almost left altogether, but I am not going to punish JP or myself cause a few don't know what respecting others means. As I did ASAP with telling everyone I will stop using Caps! Got people telling me I am screaming! WTF! I know it can be used like that and people look at it like that. But I was using Caps just talking to people. There was nothing to scream about! So because of that last live I will be much quieter now! It's amazing to me how many people in this world have no respect for anyone but themselves! Biggest Pet peev!
@@jmtpolitico80 Don't worry about that guy, I didn't like his behavior at all myself, and many others also commented after you left the stream that he should have let it go after you already said you don't use caps anymore, if you watch the stream again sometime, you can notice from the top chat comments that a lot of people mentioned the matter to the guy in question
@@Finnishguy777 Who Mika? There were a few people and Mika was one of them and him and I talk and have talked everyday for months! Never had an issue with him at all. He actually sounds like a really good dude! But hey what do I know!!!! All I know is I do not want to be arguing with our Community or Team members! Not what I am here for! I am here to learn more about what is going on in Ukraine than I am Privy to. Especially being at home right now. Not like I get a Daily Intel Update from Ukraine cause I don't. I get some info on my Brigade, Unit, and Team. That's it basically unless there is a huge strike from Russia. That is usually the only time my Team get ahold of me or if something good or bad happens with my Brigade or Unit! This channel gets me much more Info and Intel on what is going on in Ukraine. That is why I am here and the only reason I am here. So I will just stick to listening to JP! Thank You for reaching out, you re good people. Keep being the Person you are, never let no one change you! Thanks Finnish!!!!! Much Appreciated!
@@jmtpolitico80 Not Mika but the guy who was nagging it many times but i dont remember his nickname anymore, Mika is very good guy and so are about 95% of other subscribers too, but there are also a few bad apples in the group, god how annoying I can't remember what that nickname was anymore but he was the one who was nagging the most about the caps thing, and he continued to do it long after you already said you would stop it, and even after you had already left the whole stream
Again the truck losses are interesting they are loosing a serious amount of them due probably to being sent to the front or at least 5ks behind the lines amazing 🇺🇦🇬🇧✌️
AFU numbers are down slightly today but I’m happy as a pig in sh*t because I woke up to *4* wonderful ATP geopolitics videos! Xmas (spelled that way just for JP 😉) is every day with ATP Geopolitics! Heroyam slava.
Heh
Great work as always 👍💙🇸🇪❤️🇺🇦💛
I figured you to be a Rush fan.
The Russians are throwing everything they can at the front lines right now because Ukraine is low on equipment and ammo. It’s been like this for an awful long time now and Russia has been and is still experiencing unsustainable losses while barely advancing. This makes me wonder if Ukraine is pretending to be low on ammo to keep Russia on the offensive, because that makes things easier for Ukraine. This seems like an incredibly smart thing to do.
Been wondering the same myself. Is it some type of "Appear weak when you are strong" type of moment?
😅😅cope
@@MikeStuart20 It might very well be cope. But it does seem strange that the Russian is not making bigger advance, when Ukraine is running out of everything. So it's either an exaggeration of the problem, or the Russian are having bigger problems than we know of.
@@lassebodilsen sure i agree with you on the second one but the one about giving land as a trap its just coping nothing more
@@MikeStuart20, In a war, what do you believe is more important? Territory or personal, equipment, ammo, and other resources? The side that loses this war will be whoever runs out of stuff first. Can you explain why Russia has started using Chinese golf carts? How pathetic is that? Who the hell would be willing to charge the front lines in golf carts?
09:25 - + missed in the sweep + other foreigners from different countries + a large portion reported as MIA + secondary reasons (ie indirect) ... and the Russian death toll keeps rising ...
That 'turtle' tank might be somewhat useful, but think about that worlds next biggest army have to do this, tear down a shed to get some sheet metal, and build up this homegrown tank.. think if USA whipped out something like this..
The USA don't have to. They have whipped out MGT and MJ.
Form follows function. At least the Russians still have ideas, while the West seems to have none.
That’s literally how the first tanks were created…and look at the effectiveness on breaking trench stalemate’s in ww1. And here again it’s doing the same thing. Same thing was said about cope cages yet now Israel is doing it? Yet no one says anything about that
@@John_shepard as I remember in WW1 there were not drones, ATGM's, precision ammunition..
@@greenhighlander7 well duh, that’s my point this turtle tank was created out of necessity for the current battlefield conditions as was the original tank in ww1.
Hello everyone 😊 please press the LIKE button 👍 it help with youtube numbers voodoo 💥
Hi smithy!
Hello 🤗 a big hug to you from way south 😀✨
@@smith...1 🤗
Hey Smitty!
…Thanks Johnathan for the update, sending this further afield… 💙💛💙
🙏👏🇺🇦👍
🤙
Could it be that Ukraine waited untill russia got the most helicopters, weapons and ammo in place before they attacked?
I am not convinced that Gerasimov is injured badly enough to carry out his duties. However, he may have been relieved of his duties as army chief. That would also be a reason why he never appears in public. The Kremlin could never do such a dismissal publicly because it would be an admission of the losses facing the Russian army. But Putin knows that if things go wrong for him in Ukraine, he will need a scapegoat. Gerasimov would certainly be more generous than Shoigu. However, if Gerasimov is removed from responsibility now, he will no longer be suitable as a scapegoat later. So if Gerasimov is released, if I were Shoigu I would be seriously worried.
I totally believe these numbers.
Blue rodeo, tragically hip! 🎶 🇨🇦
The Tragically Hip are one of the greatest bands in the world. Your Canadian music experience is incomplete!
Thanks for the update JP!!
Canadian shirt and Ukrainian trident (truzyb) hat great combo.
What makes you think that MTG and friends would even care when seeing these images? I highly doubt it, they are spineless, have no morale, and are just evil.
Not necessarily, Green is a coward and a brat who freaks out when she can’t get her own way
@@Nick-pq4ri She knows Putin butters her bread.
They have strong morale, it is moral character they lack.
They have strong morale, it is moral character that they lack.
You should listen to I Mother Earth, a Canadian band from Toronto, they came out in the 90s but they are a great band
Isn’t it mud season too? That would slow things down.
It has dried in the Andiivka area according to Ukrainian defenders.
"Sjojguuuuuuuuuu!!!" Take care team!
To put RU and UKR casualties in perspective... Allied casualties in the Italian Campaign in WW2 from 43-45 were in the region of 350k, and approx 1.3m allied soldiers cycled through the theatre in these 2 years
Hello from Vancouver Island! Nice jersey.
I was just thinking about this the other day, about all the different groups that have fought alongside the Russians, and whether or not they're included in any casualty figures. There's the DPR/LPR, Chechens, Wagner regular/ Wagner prisoners, Regular Russians from regions across 11 time zones, regular Indians, etc. that got arrested while on vacation in Russia and sent to the military, Ukrainians from occupied areas that were force-conscripted into the army, the list could go on and on. I'm thinking all of these are represented in the Ukrainians daily reports, and only regular enlisted Russian soldiers are listed in whatever number the Russian MOD comes up with. Russia is also pulling humans from somewhere (middle east, etc.) to get the people it dumps off at the Belarusian border to try and push their way past border guards into Europe. I'm always surprised when I see military aged men in that group. But it's food for thought. Thanks for spending 3/4 of your waking hours making videos to keep us informed. It is appreciated
I stand by my theory that Gerasimov has Korsakoff's Syndrome, brought on by excessive alcohol use. Although somewhat treatable in the early stages, once you reach a certain point, the cognitive and physical problems are irreversible. I expect that a replacement will be named around the May 9th celebration, perhaps after they give him a nice wristwatch.
Hi crime Canada. You are wearing a Vancouver Canuck’s hockey jersey. Everyone should enjoy a bit of Canada by listening to one of our classic bands. You won’t go wrong with Rush, Neil Young, The Guess Who, Gordon Lightfoot and even our teen idol Bieber. Slava Ukraine
Gerasimov was replaced months ago as Commander in Chief, but still has a role. It's less public-facing so that is why we have not seen him. He doesn't look well, which is probably why he was replaced. He was rumored to be drinking heavily last year, which might be an explanation.
Evening ATP community. Has anyone heard of any sort of news on these thousands of small diameter bomb jobbies? I thought they were supposed to be in the field by now. In numbers.
They are, but no F-16s to drop them.
surely Rush is among them!!!
Thank you Jonathan for another good report. Gen Cavioli estimates 315,000 Russian military killed and wounded. That could well be accurate. Then we add foreign mercenaries and convicted prisoners and there’s another 100,000. Then we add Ukrainian men recruited from occupied territories for Luhansk and Donetsk militia and there’s at least 150,000 more kia and wia and we have 565,000 casualties. Now add nonbattle casualties due to pneumonia and infections and other disease due to horrible conditions lack of clean water and food and chronic alcohol abuse and we have 250,000 more men down. A Russian soldier who served at the front said men were constantly drinking vodka and as many were evacuated for pneumonia as for drone and artillery strikes. There’s a reason that Russia has recruited over 600,000 18-19 year olds and mobilized over 300,000 reservists. If you believe Shoigu they’ve additionally recruited up to 40,000 men per month for over one year. This is at least 1.5 million men recruited for Russian military in just over 2 years. If you add up Russian claims it’s over 2 million men mobilized for military service.
On 34:00: FIRMS uses two types of sensors: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS): MODIS is an instrument on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. It detects fires in 36 spectral bands, with a resolution of 1 km. Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS): VIIRS is an instrument on NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite and NASA's JPSS satellites. It detects fires in 22 spectral bands, with a resolution of 375 meters. These sensors detect fires based on the emission of thermal radiation. FIRMS then uses various algorithms to distinguish fires from other sources of thermal radiation, such as sunlight and volcanic activity. Near Real-Time (NRT) Active Fire Locations: This product provides the location of active fires with an accuracy of 1 km (MODIS) or 375 meters (VIIRS). Fire data is available for most locations within 3 hours of satellite observation. For the US and Canada, fire detection is even available in real-time. Fire Radiative Power (FRP): This product provides the amount of thermal radiation given off by a fire. FRP can be used to estimate the intensity of a fire. Fire Daily Burned Area (BDA): This product gives the amount of agricultural land destroyed by fires each day. FIRMS data is used for a variety of applications, including: Fire monitoring: FIRMS can be used to track fires in real time and determine their location, size and intensity. Firefighting: FIRMS data can help firefighters plan their efforts and allocate resources more efficiently. Fire research: FIRMS data can be used to study the causes and consequences of fires.
All but four of the Urals were at night - night resupply convoys.
Gowan for Canadian live singers is the bomb.
The Guess Who were huge
I thought it was funny that Shoigu was there looking serious over the ambulance drones to pull wounded out of the field.
Where are the million plus shells that are coming to Ukraine?
A bit of Front Line Assembly on the Canadian music for me.
I don't know if anyone else noticed that truck Shoigus was driving but the way in which the windscreen vibrated made it look like plastic
Sup bois
ATACM's - S400s and aircraft/helicopters. Storm Shadow/SCALP -munitions storage, comand headquarters
When there are floods surely Russia will call out troops to help with big trucks etc. I guess that is the downside of 400k casualties and 300k fighting!
They are not Western. People are totally on their own.
MTG knows fine well and doesn't give a shit.
For the 'turtle tank' - would the cover be easily swept out of the way if the turret rotated. If so then it would just be a temporary cover to protect against drone attack until they were ready to 'engage the enemy'. Just a thought, I don't know enough about tank mechanisms.
It is heavy steel welded in place. The turret motor would burn out first.
PRSM lot 1 has been delivered, this is a test lot, lot 2 was delivered in December, also a small training batch, lot 3 funding has been awarded in March, for another smaller batch. These are small batches being produced, going to military units for testing/training... 140 missiles are supposed to be produced and delivered in 2024, 190 in 2025, with production growing each year until it reaches 400 per year.. these lots are being produced at a different facility, until the full, i believe $1.4B package goes into production and my local facility comes on line and begins producing. But as you said, they have been successful, they are through actual military testing, no reason to withhold ATACMS now, that excuse is gone. These products go through research and development, then they go through company testing, then funding gets approved for x amount, at which time specific military units are selected for testing, the equipment will be delivered to that unit at a training facility, and they will spend time in the field running missions, simulations, and in this case, firing the missiles.. once that is complete and they have a full operational picture, then full funding will have to be approved and bigger orders sent and full production begins.. Same process that HIMARs went through in early 2000s, my unit did the initial operations tests in 2005.. we never fielded them, we fielded the M270A1, upgraded tracked version at the time, much faster LLM speeds, launcher loader module. To us, at the time, the A1 upgrade was huge, the original M270A0 could only move in 1 direction at a time (the launcher).. when loading, unloading or firing, it could only elevate before turning, and it was Slooooooow.... The A1 upgrade it could lift and once clear of the cab, could then begin turning at the same time, and moved way faster. Greatly reduced reload time and exposed time out on firing points carrying out a fire mission.
And now Lockheed is beginning work on a 1,000 km version.. according to public reports. Didnt specify if they were tasked for this, or if they are taking the initiative on their own. If lockheed is doing this on their own, then it will be developed and sent, and go into a category of we didnt request this, but it could be useful, and sit here until they decide to order and procure funding, at which case that will happen and it will go into full production, or they decide we dont need this and they could approve access for foreign buyers and orders could be taken, or if not then it would just be filed away and nothing happen. Im trying to remember the specifics of the treaty that the US a part of on bans of certain ranged missiles, i believe 500km-1000km or something falls into that range.. which is why the PRSM officially falls into that 400+km range, but not 500km 😉, and why this new one in R&D is 1000km +... I do know that the PRSM has 3 variants itself and it has been successfully tested at a minimal range of 85km.. bc of the hypersonic speeds, launch trajectory and ability to maneuver some in that ballistic trajectory that is about as short of a range, but has also been successful in every test beyond 400km as well.... Maybe Ukraines could find some funds, get permission, and place an order for these, though they aren't a NATO ally nor do they have a weapons/defense pact with the US, this would be very very unlikely.... But again, the excuses for not giving old ATACMS are dwindling...
The satellite imagery issue makes me wonder what nations, if any, are developing technology to deal with that problem. I imagine a more powerful version of a blinding laser similar to the Dazzler that is directed up at the sensitive optics as they are scanning down to burn them out, but I don't know enough to know if that is possible let alone viable.
@20:26 'The Shed'
Alright, one of my favorite YT channels talking about GY!BE? You sir just blew my mind.
i think ukraine have made ther own ballistik missil now ,,
that bright explosion looks like phosphorous?
@20:00 Russia sends Garden Sheds to war ... they are on the ball that's for sure :)
Canadian bands: RUSH!
Canada 😮 Summer of 69 !!! Bryan Adams!
The Ruzzians destroyed a tree? LOL