I handicap the top 3 horses for the 2024 kentucky derby.
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I agree with your strategy about building tickets around one key horse that can hit the board! SL is a logical candidate, and Fierceness is not because he either wins the race impressively or he finishes up the track! I can see a mid/long shot beating them both! The study work is half the fun! Great video!
@Mar.T.365Ай бұрын
In my opinion the handicapping part of a race is easy. The wagering part is where I've suffered a few heartbreaks in the past
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
Agreed. Fierceness is the most likely winner, but keying Sierra Leone 1st 2nd and 3rd with 8-10 others with some long shots is probably the way to go.
@jamesnewberry3155Ай бұрын
What was amazing about Sierra Leone's last race involves the fact that he was running last, or next to last through the stretch, around the first turn, and when the field straightened out in the backstretch. While this was going on, the horse who wound up running 2nd had raced just off the lead horse throughout most of the race which proves that the pace was not fast. Sierra Leone was still able to pick off horse after horse, running from behind and wide, while still overpowering everyone to win easily. The extra distance of 'The Derby' should allow him to romp in this race.
@ridgemanron29 күн бұрын
Gaffalione said SL hasn’t even peaked yet. I’m all in.
@Superscout19Ай бұрын
Friend SL better peak fast because he may have to catch a bullet in Fierceness on Derby day so Tyler will have to be at his riding best in order to catch Johnny V and Fierceness end of story
@jeroldchinttgmailАй бұрын
Go look at how wide catching freedom was in the last derby. He ran a monster race.
@maddogmattas864811 күн бұрын
T O Password is a toss for me in the Derby, because: 1-Only 2 lifetime starts 2-He ran a slow 1-1/8 mi in 1:54+ 3-No horse has won the Derby in 141 years off only 2 races 4-He’s bred for the Belmont distance and slower pace, so the Derby might be a good prep for the Belmont.
@bbbailey47Ай бұрын
I respect all the reasons you stated. Valid points
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
Can we please run this damn race before i go completely bonkers trying to figure it out... I've got mine but feelings change..study long study wrong.. sometimes that's true..
@philturner6642Ай бұрын
I couldnt agree more. I could see this race being the top 2 favorites winning just as easy as I can see chaos happening
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
What’s your opinion on West Saratoga? I believe he can lay off the speed and hopefully pick up the pieces at a huge longshot
@SupermanChiChiАй бұрын
In a year like this I wont talk you off any horse that you like
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
I won't leave him off my tickets but I won't be betting him to win
@johnmoeller2480Ай бұрын
It must be derby season if johnmoeller is in the comment section. welcome back to the channel
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
Horse that load last help. It did for Rich Strike.
@thegodfather7927Ай бұрын
You forgot to mention the winner , STRONGHOLD , if he draws the right post position his pedigree will insure the victory. GHOSTZAPPER.
@robertlosasso4222Ай бұрын
I gave him some consideration but given how bad the west coast horses have been this year I couldnt pull the trigger
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
There is nothing in horse racing that insures a victory.
@question_it_701Ай бұрын
Re the Japanese horses, i think, they need to do what Mandarin Hero's connections did last year. Come over hear early, compete in a prep or two here, and I believe they would greatly improve their chances of finally winning a Derby. It's a big ask to ship, quarantine, and race at the top of their game in their first American start.
@Mar.T.365Ай бұрын
I agree. I wonder how much financially it would cost the owners to do it that way without Japan trainers having a base in America to put their horses
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
Those jap kamikaze bastards got lotsa bucks
@randyswanson6912Ай бұрын
@@HorseRacingDaily I have given up playing Japanese horses because their best 3 yr olds, never leave Japan. We get their second best horses.
@patrickbateman1960Ай бұрын
@@patrickbateman1960Only 3yo turf horses of japan never leave Japan. Their are few choices for 3yo dirt races unlike 3yo turf races, so most 3yo dirt horses prefer to run aborad.
@contrail__29 күн бұрын
I think Fierceness will win the Derby,Sierra Leone probably would have traffic problem
@user-ob2mq1di6b29 күн бұрын
First,we've to see four things in racehorse,cardiology,lung system, muscle and feet,that'll.
@valentinvargas821924 күн бұрын
I can't take a horse that has gone down at 1-2 and 1-5 in a 5 race career.
@tomhall606517 күн бұрын
I wouldn't blame you for not backing him.he does have his flaws
@HorseRacingDaily16 күн бұрын
SL dangerous horse will go off co chalk with Fla Derby winner Ill be looking to beat both of them for the win but I do have SL rated higher then the Fla Derby winner and he's not the only powerful closer in the field
@charlesbadrock26 күн бұрын
If both favorites fail to win the super could pay at least 50 grand
@HorseRacingDaily25 күн бұрын
@@HorseRacingDaily Certainly a possibility SL is a legit threat to win the Derby but he's not the only powerful closer in the field I'm taking a stand against the FLA Derby winner for a few different reasons he won't have things his own way in this race like he did in the FLA Derby small horses ??about him getting the distance and other horses in this field have tactical speed so I don't see him alone in front turning for home in Louisville like he was in Florida
@charlesbadrock24 күн бұрын
I’ll give you 70 to 1 for a T O win bet.
@jamesn351316 күн бұрын
If Endlessly enters the derby he is gonna win easily.. if he doesn’t & Fierceness gets a good inside-middle gate position he will win.. Jockey hand rode him the whole time never asked anything.. that was all horse. Him on top because Sierra Leon will not be able to catch a horse who wont get tired in the stretch.
@lescape2834Ай бұрын
Endlessly looks good but one major problem for me is he hasn't ran on dirt
@michaellucas66929 күн бұрын
@@michaellucas669 it doesn’t have to be a problem.. he could improve even. he ran 5 straight over Turf before he ran on synthetic & still dominated..
@lescape283426 күн бұрын
@@lescape2834 that can also be true but it makes me wonder why they never tried him on dirt , maybe he doesn't like it in the mornings ? But then again some horses just run differently in the afternoon.. if he can handle the dirt he is very much a player for sure . But the derby is the derby and so much can go wrong without having to worry about if a horse will like the surface , I'll respectably pass on endlessly but won't talk you or anyone else off of him , the talent is definitely there
@michaellucas66926 күн бұрын
@@lescape2834 and one more point , alot of turf horses take to the synthetic quite well, but they all don't transform that performance to the dirt the same way, specially closers having to deal with all that kick back for the 1st time
@michaellucas66926 күн бұрын
RE Sierra Leone. When a horse gets that stressed out loading, they do not run their best. Big red flag.
@LABoykoАй бұрын
Don't let his gate antics fool you
@steelhead7704Ай бұрын
In other words he won the Blue Grass while stressed out so if he's not stressed out in the Derby he'll run even better. If he draws in the middle of the gate away from the crowds on each side of the starting gate he should not be as affected. Also, after his positive experience at Keenland he will be more adjusted to the noise. His trainer Chad Brown is a good horseman so he will be able to help his horse maintain a calm attitude. Brown might even try some ear muffs or stuff his ears with cotton.
@vernonfrance2974Ай бұрын
It's good to play with some muff before gambling
@randyswanson6912Ай бұрын
Your kidding right? The only bet should be if he comes in last or not! Wrong Japanese horse.
@joecastanon247923 күн бұрын
Japanese horses don't run at all in the derby
@steelhead7704Ай бұрын
I think we will see a different style of training where they run more workouts against other horses.
@vernonfrance2974Ай бұрын
You mean Japanese horses 🐎 don’t run well in KD. Forever Young will do it this time.
@thegodfather7927Ай бұрын
@@thegodfather7927 Good horses sometimes can overcome adversity such as getting over the long flight, adjusting to different surroundings and possibly dietary and water differences, the quarantine and the strange customs of the different environment. Some have won the Breeder's Cup now so it is only a matter of time for one to be good enough, lucky enough and adaptable enough to win.
@vernonfrance2974Ай бұрын
I think that's just coincidental. American horses ship to Dubai and Saudi Arabia and run well all the time. I'm not picking Forever Young, but just because they haven't done well, doesn't mean they won't do well. Past performance is USUALLY indicative of future performance when its the SAME horse. I don't think Derma Sotogake running poorly has anything to do with/projects that Forever Young will run poorly. I also think horses not winning from post certain post positions is coincidental. #5 and #8 have the most winners. #6 has the least. No explanation for that other than - coincidental. That's my .02.
@question_it_701Ай бұрын
@@question_it_701 Derma broke outwardly and got slammed at the break. Mendelssohn got sandwiched and jostled about at the break. Thunder Snow balked and bucked like a bronco. I have not studied the rest. I feel these three would have definitely done very well but a bad start in a race with so many horses really has a negative impact especially on horses that appear to like to be forwardly placed.
@vernonfrance2974Ай бұрын
Is it me or does Fierceness look very very skinny
@tubntxhwyaaj8264Ай бұрын
@tubntxhwyaaj8264 I agree. In some venues they will give the weight of the horse before each race like they do in greyhound racing. No such luck here.
@vernonfrance2974Ай бұрын
Nothing new here-everyone has them on thier ticket-where's a longshot at. Post your tickets online the day after the race-all you so called handicappers all pick the same horses with no longshot picked anywhere-talk is cheap and I can read the Racing Form too. Not hard to tell who the favorites are it's all over the web. Nothing new here-same old same old.
@Glenn-dp8vn19 күн бұрын
The Japanese horses can't match the Class of our horses her, leaving them out.
@johnkonley142129 күн бұрын
Not a chance
@randyswanson6912Ай бұрын
Derby not the same when the best trainer cant run his horses!...
@markdecarolis8714Ай бұрын
Baffert is truly a giant trainer but the juice thing sought of makes him huger end of story
@jeroldchinttgmailАй бұрын
It should make for a interesting Preakness this year
@HorseRacingDailyАй бұрын
Does being "the best trainer" include using the Cream & the Clear?
@Matthew-rr4deАй бұрын
Baffert does cheat,glad he's not in the derby
@randyswanson6912Ай бұрын
@@randyswanson6912 The Derby is for horses and not for Cheetahs the fastest land animals on the planet
@jeroldchinttgmailАй бұрын
The manner in how Fierceness won his final prep race leads me to believe Fierceness is ready to take on the triple crown contest in one day end of story
@jeroldchinttgmailАй бұрын
Don’t cheat 🫢
@freddie76129 күн бұрын
If the best trainer cheats it doesn’t sound like he’s the best trainer. He just got caught.
I agree with your strategy about building tickets around one key horse that can hit the board! SL is a logical candidate, and Fierceness is not because he either wins the race impressively or he finishes up the track! I can see a mid/long shot beating them both! The study work is half the fun! Great video!
In my opinion the handicapping part of a race is easy. The wagering part is where I've suffered a few heartbreaks in the past
Agreed. Fierceness is the most likely winner, but keying Sierra Leone 1st 2nd and 3rd with 8-10 others with some long shots is probably the way to go.
What was amazing about Sierra Leone's last race involves the fact that he was running last, or next to last through the stretch, around the first turn, and when the field straightened out in the backstretch. While this was going on, the horse who wound up running 2nd had raced just off the lead horse throughout most of the race which proves that the pace was not fast. Sierra Leone was still able to pick off horse after horse, running from behind and wide, while still overpowering everyone to win easily. The extra distance of 'The Derby' should allow him to romp in this race.
Gaffalione said SL hasn’t even peaked yet. I’m all in.
Friend SL better peak fast because he may have to catch a bullet in Fierceness on Derby day so Tyler will have to be at his riding best in order to catch Johnny V and Fierceness end of story
Go look at how wide catching freedom was in the last derby. He ran a monster race.
T O Password is a toss for me in the Derby, because: 1-Only 2 lifetime starts 2-He ran a slow 1-1/8 mi in 1:54+ 3-No horse has won the Derby in 141 years off only 2 races 4-He’s bred for the Belmont distance and slower pace, so the Derby might be a good prep for the Belmont.
I respect all the reasons you stated. Valid points
Can we please run this damn race before i go completely bonkers trying to figure it out... I've got mine but feelings change..study long study wrong.. sometimes that's true..
I couldnt agree more. I could see this race being the top 2 favorites winning just as easy as I can see chaos happening
What’s your opinion on West Saratoga? I believe he can lay off the speed and hopefully pick up the pieces at a huge longshot
In a year like this I wont talk you off any horse that you like
I won't leave him off my tickets but I won't be betting him to win
It must be derby season if johnmoeller is in the comment section. welcome back to the channel
Horse that load last help. It did for Rich Strike.
You forgot to mention the winner , STRONGHOLD , if he draws the right post position his pedigree will insure the victory. GHOSTZAPPER.
I gave him some consideration but given how bad the west coast horses have been this year I couldnt pull the trigger
There is nothing in horse racing that insures a victory.
Re the Japanese horses, i think, they need to do what Mandarin Hero's connections did last year. Come over hear early, compete in a prep or two here, and I believe they would greatly improve their chances of finally winning a Derby. It's a big ask to ship, quarantine, and race at the top of their game in their first American start.
I agree. I wonder how much financially it would cost the owners to do it that way without Japan trainers having a base in America to put their horses
Those jap kamikaze bastards got lotsa bucks
@@HorseRacingDaily I have given up playing Japanese horses because their best 3 yr olds, never leave Japan. We get their second best horses.
@@patrickbateman1960Only 3yo turf horses of japan never leave Japan. Their are few choices for 3yo dirt races unlike 3yo turf races, so most 3yo dirt horses prefer to run aborad.
I think Fierceness will win the Derby,Sierra Leone probably would have traffic problem
First,we've to see four things in racehorse,cardiology,lung system, muscle and feet,that'll.
I can't take a horse that has gone down at 1-2 and 1-5 in a 5 race career.
I wouldn't blame you for not backing him.he does have his flaws
SL dangerous horse will go off co chalk with Fla Derby winner Ill be looking to beat both of them for the win but I do have SL rated higher then the Fla Derby winner and he's not the only powerful closer in the field
If both favorites fail to win the super could pay at least 50 grand
@@HorseRacingDaily Certainly a possibility SL is a legit threat to win the Derby but he's not the only powerful closer in the field I'm taking a stand against the FLA Derby winner for a few different reasons he won't have things his own way in this race like he did in the FLA Derby small horses ??about him getting the distance and other horses in this field have tactical speed so I don't see him alone in front turning for home in Louisville like he was in Florida
I’ll give you 70 to 1 for a T O win bet.
If Endlessly enters the derby he is gonna win easily.. if he doesn’t & Fierceness gets a good inside-middle gate position he will win.. Jockey hand rode him the whole time never asked anything.. that was all horse. Him on top because Sierra Leon will not be able to catch a horse who wont get tired in the stretch.
Endlessly looks good but one major problem for me is he hasn't ran on dirt
@@michaellucas669 it doesn’t have to be a problem.. he could improve even. he ran 5 straight over Turf before he ran on synthetic & still dominated..
@@lescape2834 that can also be true but it makes me wonder why they never tried him on dirt , maybe he doesn't like it in the mornings ? But then again some horses just run differently in the afternoon.. if he can handle the dirt he is very much a player for sure . But the derby is the derby and so much can go wrong without having to worry about if a horse will like the surface , I'll respectably pass on endlessly but won't talk you or anyone else off of him , the talent is definitely there
@@lescape2834 and one more point , alot of turf horses take to the synthetic quite well, but they all don't transform that performance to the dirt the same way, specially closers having to deal with all that kick back for the 1st time
RE Sierra Leone. When a horse gets that stressed out loading, they do not run their best. Big red flag.
Don't let his gate antics fool you
In other words he won the Blue Grass while stressed out so if he's not stressed out in the Derby he'll run even better. If he draws in the middle of the gate away from the crowds on each side of the starting gate he should not be as affected. Also, after his positive experience at Keenland he will be more adjusted to the noise. His trainer Chad Brown is a good horseman so he will be able to help his horse maintain a calm attitude. Brown might even try some ear muffs or stuff his ears with cotton.
It's good to play with some muff before gambling
Your kidding right? The only bet should be if he comes in last or not! Wrong Japanese horse.
Japanese horses don't run at all in the derby
I think we will see a different style of training where they run more workouts against other horses.
You mean Japanese horses 🐎 don’t run well in KD. Forever Young will do it this time.
@@thegodfather7927 Good horses sometimes can overcome adversity such as getting over the long flight, adjusting to different surroundings and possibly dietary and water differences, the quarantine and the strange customs of the different environment. Some have won the Breeder's Cup now so it is only a matter of time for one to be good enough, lucky enough and adaptable enough to win.
I think that's just coincidental. American horses ship to Dubai and Saudi Arabia and run well all the time. I'm not picking Forever Young, but just because they haven't done well, doesn't mean they won't do well. Past performance is USUALLY indicative of future performance when its the SAME horse. I don't think Derma Sotogake running poorly has anything to do with/projects that Forever Young will run poorly. I also think horses not winning from post certain post positions is coincidental. #5 and #8 have the most winners. #6 has the least. No explanation for that other than - coincidental. That's my .02.
@@question_it_701 Derma broke outwardly and got slammed at the break. Mendelssohn got sandwiched and jostled about at the break. Thunder Snow balked and bucked like a bronco. I have not studied the rest. I feel these three would have definitely done very well but a bad start in a race with so many horses really has a negative impact especially on horses that appear to like to be forwardly placed.
Is it me or does Fierceness look very very skinny
@tubntxhwyaaj8264 I agree. In some venues they will give the weight of the horse before each race like they do in greyhound racing. No such luck here.
Nothing new here-everyone has them on thier ticket-where's a longshot at. Post your tickets online the day after the race-all you so called handicappers all pick the same horses with no longshot picked anywhere-talk is cheap and I can read the Racing Form too. Not hard to tell who the favorites are it's all over the web. Nothing new here-same old same old.
The Japanese horses can't match the Class of our horses her, leaving them out.
Not a chance
Derby not the same when the best trainer cant run his horses!...
Baffert is truly a giant trainer but the juice thing sought of makes him huger end of story
It should make for a interesting Preakness this year
Does being "the best trainer" include using the Cream & the Clear?
Baffert does cheat,glad he's not in the derby
@@randyswanson6912 The Derby is for horses and not for Cheetahs the fastest land animals on the planet
The manner in how Fierceness won his final prep race leads me to believe Fierceness is ready to take on the triple crown contest in one day end of story
Don’t cheat 🫢
If the best trainer cheats it doesn’t sound like he’s the best trainer. He just got caught.