Peter Zeihan - What Will Happen If China Invades Taiwan?
2022 ж. 27 Қыр.
238 235 Рет қаралды
Peter Zeihan explains what could happen if China tried to invade Taiwan. Is the Chinese invasion of Taiwan likely? Does Peter Zeihan think that China would succeed if they tried to take Taiwan? Why do China want to invade Taiwan?
#peterzeihan #china #taiwan
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population of taiwan 23million VS china 1 Billion 🤣 Ukraine population 44 million vs russia 146 million 😂 there is nothing we can do to protect taiwan if china really want taiwan. absolutely nothing. it wont be like ukraine war.
@@tocreatee5736 you missed the part about global monetary sanctions and blockades on supply routes. Yes, the CCP could invade Taiwan, and the CCP would collapse in under a year if they did. Xi is incredibly ignorant, but that is ignorance of another level. Cheers.
@@tocreatee5736 Taiwan is always part of China, therefore, there is no invasion at all, except reunification.
Distance didn't stop the advance of Japan in WW2 they nearly got into Australia
@@tocreatee5736 Not with Biden as President. Trump: 4 YEARS OF PEACE IN UKRAINE, 4 YEARS OF PEACE IN TAIWAN. Biden: WAR IN UKRAINE AFTER 13 MONTHS IN OFFICE. TAIWAN.....TO BE DETERMINED.
*Seriously, Peter Zeihan and Jordan B. Peterson are perfect compliments.* One is an extreme economic hyperrealist, taking all emotions out of the equation. The other turns emotions into a science, and explores the deepest reaches of humanity. Both take the extreme and complex and give them a frightening amount of sense.
I really really like this.
Peter understands a lot about geopolitics, but biased for sure. Jp understands nothing much about geopolitics. He has good points on human behavior, but very few and some not well thought
Baaa you good sheep
Jordan Peterson is not a serious thinker
@@lipby Really, I'd be interested in how you apply this criticism to his field of expertise beyond an insult.
There is also the fact that there are only 14 small beaches suitable for an amphibious assault that are backed by mountains with dense forest or dense urban areas. Plus there is the Taiwan Strait which is only in a short window of time making naval and amphibious assault difficult.
The first casualty would be Walmart . Every store would close .
China has the cheapest labour but not the only one…
I have to agree with you on this one, Peter.
I’m a retired Recon Marine, so I looked at the topography of Taiwan, and the water shelf approaching their beeches , not to mention the mining that Taiwan would install around their coast, and then of course you have the USN to contend with, and more than likely, the Japanese Navy, GOOD LUCK CHINA
Lmao. Japs hitting china will literally unite the entire country to use nukes on Japan. No one likes them in Asia. Good luck with your woke tranny military.
Good luck sending weapons and ammo to Taiwan.
@@Checkthisontube china won’t need to invade. Blockade and total destruction of civilian infrastructure will force Taiwan to surrender. Taiwanese aren’t Ukrainians. They aren’t Slavs. The young tbere are just weak AF.
@@Checkthisontube You didn’t listen to the video, or you don’t believe it.
@@jrwstl02 I was responding to his comment that it would also be harder to send supplies to Taiwan than to Ukraine.
if China invades Taiwan, i'm not convinced the world will do anything. what consequences has China faced for lying about covid for before letting it loose on the rest of us?
China invading Taiwan would be the straw that breaks the CCP camel's back.
But in your imaginary world, China could simply release covid 20xx to its enemy countries again if they think it is necessary.
I like the intuition he is showing here. Makes a lot of sense. I had never thought of it from this perspective.
I never thought much about how the war in Ukraine might affect China's hesitancy in invading Taiwan. Peter Zeihan has a good point. I will say, China and Russia's military are completely different and so comparing the two is a bit of a stretch. We are essentially giving Ukraine super powers to fight Russia. If we were to aid Taiwan in the same way, I don't think the gap could be closed nearly as well.
Yeah, except China holds all the cards, being the producer of all the cheap goods we've made ourselves dependent on.
@@TheDionysianFields : Chins ia very dependent on the west for many things from minerals, energy, technology, etc. China is totally dependent on the west to buy their produce. Xinnie the Pooh knows that.
@@buildmotosykletist1987 No, they have been buying up our farmland like wildfire.
He’s a know it all and experts in the subjects he seems to know everything about all say he’s full of shit
A US - China sea battle would be one sided. The US has 11 aircraft carriers and 9 amphibious assault ships that can carry F-35C stealth jets. While China only has ONE really crappy aircraft carrier that is already falling apart.
1:43, did he say they'd build a few nukes ?
yep that totally discredited his take.
Yeah, he says a lot of goofy things about Ukraine too. He may know a lot about supply chains and demographics but American Exceptionalism severely clouds his thinking on conflicts.
@@60degreelobwedge82 The USA is exceptional though. I dont get this idea that all is equal and the same.
@@rleriche5044 Taiwan has nukes
I enjoy this guy’s takes… still though I can’t help but wonder what X-factors, if any, China has been developing in whatever underground infrastructure they may have
OMG WHY DOESNT THE US INVADE TAIWAN!!!! THAT WOULD BE SUCH A BRIALLIANT MOVE
@@kinbolluck476 fast track to a nuclear exchange with china after we lose all of our allies
Exactly
@@kinbolluck476 😅
What is his qualification to say with certainty what the best strategy and only strategy for this and for that is ...?
Time. I'm willing to wait. So far, he was spot on when he deduced that the Ukraine war was coming, down to the year, back in 2014. We'll see if he's right, in due time.
I think he has been a geopolitical analyst for a while working with think tanks.
@@willywonka4340 Hard not to be right when Putin FLAT OUT said WELL before (even in a NYT piece HE WROTE) , that if NATO kept encroaching toward the Russian border that there would be conflict. Same U.S. that threatened war because of military alliance between the Soviets and Cuba.
hes a geopolitical analyst that works with the DOD
Taiwan also has 1.66 million reservist, which is ridiculous given its size. They might only have four weeks of training, but just being able to point a gun in the direction of the enemy would mean that they would have a huge force of arms packed in a small area, and sometimes just being determined to root out an invader with little arms training on your own is enough.
Taiwan will collapse the moment missiles hit. They are as progressive as the left in the US. The ones willing to fight is long gone. 4 months training. They shoot less than 200 rounds lmao.
Many of those reservists will be fighting against the US! Something you currently don't realise! Don't believe me? Check out the result of the mid-term Taiwan election - November 2022 and see how well Tsai Ing Wen's DPP party did. Only won 5 out of 23! She resigned as party leader, because she fought the election as a referendum, to send a message to Beijing - it did! - the Taiwanese people rejected the US, and voted for closer ties to the mainland!
Just look at what ukraine was capable of. Taiwan isnt going down that easy
and in WW2 Japan honey-combed the island with underground defensive tunnels. They are still there....
well thats great i was getting worried about there domonace not so much after watching this video
Well, our friends that live in China have been told to prepare for food shortages. They have to keep they’re messages cryptic but they are concerned as to why they have been told to do this.
Trump did not get to sell their future to the Russians, and Biden will not get to sell it to the Chinese.
Doesn’t China and Russia both have everything each other needs anyway? China has all the industrialization and Russia has all the agriculture/natural resources. They could strictly trade with each other and cut themselves off from the rest of the world
This makes perfect sense.
Wow!
Looks like everyone here forgot about the one China policy recognized by the US and a majority of nations.
Man I didn't even think about that trying to making that Crossing all that water would be a huge Chum Bucket Beyond hell on Earth
It's crazy that estimations are showing that the us would lose 2 aircraft carriers in this conflict. Not many people alive today have seen an aircraft carrier go down
Taiwan has it least 600-700 anti-ship missiles and builds hundreds each year. Japan is upgrading 1,000 of it’s land-based anti ship missiles to have a range of 1,000km. The US has 2-4 submarines in the area each with 150 precision tomahawk missiles and hundreds of land-based and air-to sea missiles. And these are just some of the anti - invasion capability elements. Ukraine with far more backward and unorganised missile squadrons sank Russia’s capital ship with a single missile. There is no way China’s navy or amphibious ships survive the journey. China trying to disguise a drill as an invasion doesn’t work. For an actual invasion they would need to assemble what the allies had to assemble for D-day on a much larger scale. With satellite technology there is no way it can go unnoticed. US intelligence predicts they will have 60 days + of being confident of an invasion and 30+ of being 100% certain of an invasion. If they do a surprise bombard before their troops are assembled then they will be under fire before their troops even get onto the transport vehicles. There’s no way it works out well. But this is just the military challenges. In a war Taiwan would wipe out China's major dams and ruin the prosperity of 600m chinese people, meanwhile after the war there would be no recovery with the average age of china being 40+ and no energy imports for the economy or iron ore imports to rebuild. Sure, China would survive - but there would be no great economic rejuvenation.
they would be back in the stone age in a matter of months..
Great analysis 👍
So, is Taiwan waiting for mainland China to collapse so it can reunify?
I don't think they are getting across that channel without losing at least a million men in the Channel. Water is extremely hard to get across when there are missiles, bombs, and bullets coming your way in unfriendly fashion.
What about the drone factor? The CCP could send drones and other unmanned warcraft (or decoys) to wear down Taiwan's defensive systems before sending in the troops.
interesting he missed the most important part , the same people that own the west , own china . all our differences are created by those people that own us . there are a lot countrys that would collapse if santions were put on china .
I think maybe we can be connected to discuss sometime if u feel comfortable with, at least u get the access of a genuine Chinese perspective, not any third party personal illustrations
Taking on Taiwan, plus AUKUS, and, probably, Japan and France, wouldn’t be fun. Probably, sea, air, space and cyber, rather than infantry, from Taiwan’s allies. Taiwan would need to keep a watch-out for fifth columnists, loyal to the Mainland. China could be softened-up by the United States dropping MFN trade status and Australia stopping the supply of industrial quality raw materials.
Japan has totally committed to defending Taiwan. An easy search to confirm.
Oh no, where would China get gay pornography if USA cuts them off?
@@buildmotosykletist1987 Vietnam and The PI would back Taiwan too.
The high tech amphibious assault ship carries 500 men and 10 tanks per trip and China got 6-8 of those. It's not enough to carry the force needed and keep the army supplied for the occupation, you need at least 2 million soldiers and the supplies will last 1 day. If you use every civilian ship in China to do the job then it means it will get sunk by the low-tier mid-tier native produced anti-ship missiles which Taiwan has in tens of thousands. Not to mentions the anti ship harpoon missiles bought from the US. The only feasible way to make Taiwanese Government come to the table for negotiation is Naval lockdown/starvation of Taiwan which the US would simply re-supply without starting a formal war, if the US gets involved then the land invasion is pretty much impossible. That's why it's even more difficult then Ukraine, it's not like you can place the 20 thousand strong army with thousands of tanks all around the border on day one.
Defensive position is always easier than an offensive position. Taiwan can make China's invasion very costly, indeed.
@Fabel Bagel Yes, I understand Taiwan and the US holds the monopoly on those semiconductors and will readily use it against the invaders.
"It's not enough to carry the force needed and keep the army supplied for the occupation" - they can mobilize their civilian ferrys. plus they produce 40% of the world's commercial ships. because they don't have them today, doesn't mean they won't have them tomorrow. this is just lack of imagination "low-tier mid-tier native produced anti-ship missiles which Taiwan has in tens of thousands" - taiwan is set to produce 1,000 of them over the next five years in response to china's recent drills. please link to this tens of thousands stockpile claim, because this sounds like 🐝S "Not to mentions the anti ship harpoon missiles bought from the US" - they have not been buying these, as well as other weapon systems, in the amounts that are needed, to the dismay of the pentagon. if china invades today, it doesn't matter, they slacked off for too long. "Naval lockdown/starvation of Taiwan which the US would simply re-supply without starting a formal war" - how is the US going to resupply a blockaded island? "That's why it's even more difficult then Ukraine, it's not like you can place the 20 thousand strong army with thousands of tanks all around the border on day one." and, because taiwan doesn't have a border, is the reason they can't get resupplied, and that's the reason they will lose. in addition, china is 50x the size of taiwan, russia is only 4x the size of ukraine. nobody seems to mention or grasp this, it's unreal.
@@FUTUBEFLAGS The US ship in resources and weapons to the blockaded island with their naval fleets and the moment PRC fires a shot it's a total war at that point. You know the PRC is not even confident of Taiwan invasion let alone a war with the US which Biden has declared the US will conduct a war against China the 4th time in black and white statements. PRC army is completely corrupt like the Russians they they would disintegrate while the Army in Taiwan will perform as defenders. Either way the US is determined to use this opportunity is drag down China and in the process kill the PRC crossing the strait in the millions even at the expense of Taiwan. What's the land invasion going to be like? 500 men per trip on a random location against a nation? All semi-conductors shipment will come to standing halt and I would easily send China back to the 1950's and the CCP will disintegrate. That's why the invasion is all talk year after year.
@@FUTUBEFLAGS pretty much said what I was going to. Anyone who underestimates his enemy is likely to get shafted. Taiwan has been paying lip-service to the invasion threat for decades and has only now somewhat gotten serious thanks to the war in Ukraine. Taiwan has not been preparing for an inevitable invasion over 8 years like Ukraine did. Has anyone else seen videos or read up on the Taiwanese draft/reserve system? It's an absolute joke. Most of their equipment are modernized relics. What tech they do have is likely nowhere in the numbers they need to really repel an invasion on their own. I see two things saving Taiwan, the US and Chinese incompetence.
Yay! Less to worry about. 🇹🇼 🇯🇵
2:36 except for that coup attempt 🙄
How bout I just give you a thumbs up
Hard to argue against a man with such a towering intellect. Even harder to argue against his clear-eyed common sense.
This comment is a GREAT example of the vibe given off by this guys brand. Everything from his political opinions to the comments littering his KZhead channel, screams state funded internet outlet. He's an ideological clone of the perma-states & Pentagon, and appears to travel with a pack of mindless cheerleaders.
Waiting for Nathan Rich to go ballistic on this video.
If China were to invade Taiwan (or attempt to invade) it would at best be a Pyrrhic victory as what it might gain in such an effort would not recoup the losses. China would have to "flatten" Taiwan in preparation for invasion which would destroy Taiwan's computer chip manufacturing...driving the price sky high and the quality deep into the ground. China would also suffer serious economic sanctions and diplomatic repercussions. Then there's the causalities and loss of material. The combination of the downsides makes any attempt not worth the gains...pride in regaining Taiwan won't feed the populace.
We can't assume tyrants and tyrannical regimes will behave rationally: yeah they will starve whilst being nationilstically happy that they have reunified haha and the CCP will have secured continue legitimacy and kowtow over their gain despite the human losses: go figure!
You're talking about a country that killed tens of millions of its own people by accident and spun it as a victory...multiple times. The CCP doesn't care about feeding its people. The whole regime survives on pride and saving face. Don't anticipate your enemy by your mindset unless you want to get reemed up the keester.
Now the good news, chip manufacturing has and is moving back to the US mainland. Covid and supply chain issues was enough to shock manufacturers that it is necessary. Some HUGE plants being built in Texas right now.
Taiwan won't be invaded for strategic military purposes either (for access past the first island chain). Japan would wipe the CCP from history.
Even if the Chinese deliberately avoided the chip manufacturing facilities, I suspect that someone else would take them out. If you look like you might win, Taiwan will go scorched earth on you. By reducing the possible reward, it deters the attack.
I have heard him in other videos and he seems great but this time his predictions sound more like a Michael bay movie.
Lets not forget that a lot of really rich people own factories in Taiwan.
Having lived in China for 8 years (and just got back a few months ago), it must be pointed out that Taiwan consists of more than just the main island. There are also strings of smaller islands, with some less than 3 miles from the mainland city of Xiamen, and these could be taken rather quickly if Xi truly wanted to (and yes, he wants to, and yes, he's prepared to lose as many people as need be). And that's what I feel is far more likely to happen... sort of a Crimea first, Ukraine second approach... China would take the Kinmen Islands first and then make a play for greater Taiwan second- with the duration between the two based upon how easy the first was. Most Chinese men that I've met WANT China to take Taiwan- and by any means necessary too. They also felt the same about Hong Kong... and this from people I thought were fairly westernized, educated, global-minded people... When it comes to the subject of Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan, they became ultra-nationalists. The real question to ask is... would the world community, the EU, the US and Canada, none of which formally recognize Taiwan and have no embassies there, go to all-out war, including nuking mainland China and imposing throttling embargoes? I say, not a chance. China can get its energy from Russia, has a populace used to deprivation, and war solves the CCP's biggest issue, which is a constant 20%+ unemployment. Xi said Taiwan MUST be a part of China by 2049, which is twenty-six years from now.... I would believe him
BRITAIN SHOULD INVADE TAIWAN
The PLA is inexperienced and corrupt, Russia won’t be providing as much food as necessary to counter the food sanctions by countries supplying China also there is the fact that millions of people throughout China are protesting for the end of the CCP. By 2049 the CCP probably push the goal posts back like they have been doing with Taiwan. Also there is the fact Taiwan will target Oil supply lines from Russia with long range missiles and Taiwan being natural fortress with 14 small beaches suitable for an amphibious landing and the Taiwan strait being calm a small window time makes taking Taiwan massively difficult.
The unthinkable ? And what we thought unsinkable,sinking faster than the TITANIC???🇨🇦😱
While the crossing the sea part being a huge obstacle that Russia never had to deal with obviously makes a lot of sense I'm not so sure about the whole Taiwan 'building a few nukes' thing.
They have had them since the 60's
Submarines, f22s, oh my
Won't be able to pull it off so easily 👽
This may not have aged that well. Note that China recently brokered a normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It's interesting that they made friends with two countries that just happen to have massive petroleum reserves. They will have a source of oil that will help them survive sanctions from the U.S. and other allies.
And they can avoid naval choke points by shipping oil from the gulf states to their terminals and pipelines in Myanmar
All they’ve got to do is get it
The us controls the best oceans they will sink all Saudi oil tankers
Thats my depressing take on it as well. The US is going to seriously misjudge this one .
Two points were utter nonsense. One is the belief energy imports would be restricted and would cripple China. Russia would continue to provide China as much gas and oil as needed without interruption. Second is the belief that if China were to build up to an invasion Taiwan would recognize this and “just build a couple of nukes.” You don’t just decide to “build nukes” and have them within 2-3 months. Taiwan’s best defense is the military stockpile provided by the US, establishment of an Asian NATO and the threat of unified sanctions by the worlds biggest economies.
Yeah, the US prevented Taiwan from going nuclear, and they certainly wouldn't attack Shanghai and Beijing because that would spark retaliation against whatever Taiwan has which is much less and cannot afford to be lost.
Even in the "best case scenario" for China, where the US and Japan do not militarily get involved before the invasion succeeds, this doesn't work well for China. Taiwan produces about 90% of the high-end computer chips that both China and the rest of the world need and use to keep their economies going, and you can bet these facilities will be destroyed once it was clear China would succeed in invading, which would almost immediately push the world into a recession. Japan, the USA and South Korea can make these chips, although not in the quantities needed (at least at first), but China cannot - they have spent a lot of money and effort trying to make these and failed. It would be painful to all involved, but you can bet that sanctions similar to what were placed on the Russian government would also be placed on the CCP, and if the US put in a total blockade of anything going in or out of China by sea (which I would expect), this would create the fuel and food shortages very quickly that the video mentioned. I would expect Chinese casualties to be in the hundreds of thousands, most of them drowning victims after their transport ships were sunk by the Taiwanese. This is not going to go over well with the families on the mainland who lost boys, in many cases their only child. As factories close for lack of parts and power rationing goes into effect due to fuel shortages, this will be problem for the CCP that could end up with them being replaced.
I agree with the vast majority of what you stated. The world is already either in or entering a very prolonged recession. Some examples include the UK, the US, CCP China (complete housing and banking collapse, large amounts of huge Japanese, Korean, and US multinational companies relocating AND CCP financial information is delusional at best). Coupled with a huge strain on the world's supply of food and energy from Putins Final Mistake and it will be tough sledding for the foreseeable future. We're living in very challenging times indeed. Cheers.
Good point about families losing their sons. Parents would lose their means of support they have hedged their golden years on. Serious societal collapse/repercussions
I disagree Taiwans chip manufacturing capabilities while being the best in the world have and are consistently under threat from the frequent earthquakes that appear almost daily in the country and the prospect of a long and protracted drought threatening critical water supplies, already we're in the midst of a global chip shortage and a recession albeit caused by other factors.
I can't imagine the Chinese even trying. The USN has the distant maritime intervention strategy to strangle them at Malacca and Hormuz, and 3rd, 7th, and 5th fleets would be turkey-shooting Chinese container ships from minute 1, so even if the blockade was lifted... They have no shipping. Thats the most hands-off, casualty averse path the US could take and it still puts the CCP upside down into a trash can. For the fishing boat blitz strategy... The second that Taiwan gets verified I&W of a Chinese amphibious assault, forget missiles and everything else, you are going to be able to walk from Taiwan to China stepping from sea mine to sea mine without getting your feet wet. Look how many quicksink mines a B-2, B-1, and B-52 can deploy in a single sortie. It's bonkers. And the straight is only like 80 feet deep so it's the perfect bathymetry for mines. You can sweep, sure. But they don't have that many sweepers, the mines are resistant to it, and it slows the overall pace of the assault from 30 knots to less than 3. While getting pounded by every black box horror DARPA has been stashing in the closet for a rainy day.
He has some valid points, but went off the deep end quickly.
For fucks sakes. Pronounce his name like SHE, the pronoun. X in Chinese is Sh and XI is SHE, not zheee.
Can you elaborate?
@@waflwiro I watched this video. The only two things he said that "may" be considered "deep end" were: 1. Taiwan builds nukes in 1 month and fires onto China 2. Text messages to the army are sent by China to reduce awareness (this was said in jest) and 1 million people die trying to get to Taiwan by sea. Otherwise, a very well and succinct series of statements and hypotheses.
He has _big brain_ positions like Fox News is comparable to enemy states as it relates to their threats to America. Oh, while he goes on Fox News to shill his books. Every political position he has is in parallel with the DC perma-state/Pentagon. He thinks people like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden are quality leaders for the country. Lets forget that Biden is such a quality leader that one of his kids is a literal crackhead and the other one says her father "bad-touched" her and thereby flucked her up for life.
@@waflwiro The nuke comment was based on nothing. Getting a million people to just sail to stop the Chinese crossing doesn't make much sense. I think we have the blueprint of a China military option and it looks like a blockade slowly tightening.
I’m going to start disinfecting my driveway, damn! I didn’t know that helped!
What do you think about Australie
You are so smart❤️ I adore you Kissy kissy
did he say Taiwan will build a nuke? Can they? Will to build so quickly?
Maybe someone you know…happens to misplace a couple of them and Taiwan finds them on the street
@@andreilikayutub3496 If Taiwan used US supplied nukes against mainland China you could expect Chinese nukes hitting the US. I can't see nukes being used in this conflict, no one would win.
What happened when US invaded Hawaii or California? Taiwan is China
Well for one thing, Taiwan will get a lot more crowded
Day one and oil is cut off from the Persian Gulf No Oil No War
Yep. Would take one, maybe two destroyers to shut them down in the Indian Ocean.
Of course, the reason that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor was that the U.S. cut off their oil supply.
What is his track record when it comes to his past predictions?
Very good. It's the only reason I follow him.
Important question.
There are YT videos from 2014 where he states Russia would fully invade Ukraine by 2022. Pretty spot on with that one at least.
He predicted like 5 or 6 years ago that Russia would invade Ukraine by 2022. They did exactly that
He’s got a decent record. But just don’t take his views as prophecy, either. I’d look at other analysts and weigh things out. I think he kind of falls into the trap of taking predictions to their most extreme conclusions sometimes. And as a “popular” analyst, that’s a decent strategy for self-marketing. But, frankly, I haven’t seen anyone else claiming a Chinese collapse is even remotely imminent whether it invades Taiwan or not. Their system has a load of issues, but I sort of question the idea that the regime will pull a U.S.S.R and just fall apart. I do believe, however, Taiwan is now looking far more costly a purchase to China than it was pre-Ukraine. He’s probably correct in saying that they have to redraw some of their plans.
It would be a missile massive bombardment... After that...who knows?
If u say INVADING? Which indicates your recognition of Taiwan as an independent country, which contradicts your own government stance.
Questions are: Does world equate China versus Taiwan the same as Russia versus Ukraine? Would world boycott China and for how long? Would Taiwan fight well? Would chip fabs survive? Would China allow Taiwanese citizens to leave? Would USA attempt a naval blockade or mine the straits? Would US President get the approval of Congress? PS - too many unknowns. Perhaps Tom Clancy could parse things out!
Taiwan is far more important to the economies of the west than Ukraine. Not only is it the 800 lb gorilla of chip fabbing but the area around it is Japan and S. Korea's shipping lane to the Middle East. And let's not forget that China claims the Japanese Sengoku islands. Taking over Taiwan gets China past the first island chain and into the deep Pacific. It would also intimidate the other smaller nations in the region. The US, S.Korea, Japan, and the states around the South China sea don't want that to happen. Australia would have every right to feel threatened. China is also claiming a big portion of Kashmere province as theirs so India would feel threatened. The UK would get involved because the US and the Aussies are their biggest allies. France might even get involved. Any actual attack on Taiwan probably starts with attacks on Okinawa and Guam. President would not need Congress' approval to respond to a direct attack on US forces. I'd expect a short very intense battle. Either China gets a couple of divisions of troops across quickly or their plans have been foiled. Taiwan may be rubble but won't be taken and may no longer be worth taking. My prediction is massive losses on both sides but China's navy will no longer exist. Neither will the bases on those artificial islands they built. The Quad/AUKUS/whatever for the win but we'll still be decimated. But that's OK because we have a spare fleet in the Atlantic.
Politics aside, people are forgetting that Russians in Ukraine are fighting for Russia. In Taiwan the people are ethnic Han Chinese, many do not want war but do want a 1 China policy, regardless of politics. And there's more and more discontent around the world with the US playing cop and totallyscrewing over and destroying nations. And just like in cucked Germany, there's still a significant number of Japanese that feel shame for WWII, and do not want any military intervention of any kind.
I think there's WAY more interest in defending Taiwan than Ukraine, I mean what is Ukraine? Taiwan manufactures the most important chips in the world and if China invades they'll have full control over them and anyone in the world will have to go through China to get them. Also if China are in Taiwan the'd be in arms reach of Japan their possible next target.
At the end of the day boycotts sound lovely until you miss all the stuff that comes from China nowadays . .. nearly everything... just ask the yanks .... sanctions do fook all ... always a back door ..look at North Korea
But what about all those ubiquitous Chinese restaurants spread world wide?
Some of Pete's comments I don't buy. He says if Taiwan was invaded China loses energy imports. Yet, what if Russia imports it's energy to China.
Disinfecting airport runways. Yeah, that'll work. 😄
You laugh but they were even running covid tests on pillows and mobile phones...
I lived in Taipei in 1985. People are wonderful there. If China would have the intention to get Taiwan they would have done years ago. Chinese are very practical people, what we can get if we have Taiwan there? It’s always intention. I don’t know who is this new guru but he is wrong.
No no, this guy is so innocent.
A bit of a swim
Listening to this guy makes me sleep better every night. Thought Biden would sell my grandkids future to the Chinese. Now I'm not so sure!
Just let your grandkids marry to the Chinese ? Unless you are racist and believe white genes are superior than Chinese genes
Gotta disinfect those runways!
Yeah that's what I do. I mean if someone is looking like they want some trouble I just build a few nukes.
By the way, it'll look nothing like Ukraine. There are far more facets, and there has to be an air campaign that supports an amphibious operation, and almost every facet is different.
I hope China doesn’t have a Japanese Admiral like Yamamoto. Who concluded early that war with U.S. was not winnable. But Japan could raise havoc for 6 months then must sue for peace.
Everything this guy predicts turn out wrong. I watched him on his predictions about the War in Ukraine he made ten months ago. Not one of them turned out as he predicted. He is very convinced in the USA and western foreign policies. I don’t think that what is happening now in the world under USA bullying is proving to be succesfull and beïng liked by people all over the world.
The fact that a topic like this is an intellectual discussion really demonstrates what a shitty world we have created for ourselves.
How so?
Don't internalise the shit that Xi and Putin cause because of their own ego driven stupidity. That is not on us or you.
Shitty comment. Not at all one bit. Communism has tried to take over and subjugate the world since day one. This conversatiin is a very real and very good intentioned look at a situation that the world needs to solve. We as people have no reason to feel bad about it.
I really like Peters perspective, Ive read his books and listened to a lot of his interviews. But I think he looks at this issue as if the rest if the world doesn’t need china. If China does invade and there is blow back, they probably have definitely factored this and have enough control over their people to work through boycotting and sanctions. They also have control over many industries outside of China, they can still participate and influence the world economy while being economically attacked. Peter makes China sound like they are not informed, don’t have a plan and are dependent on foreign policies, from what Ive learned about Chinas world wide influence, I unfortunately think they can pull this off and get away with it.
They are not going to do it!
Hey Stars and Stripes hawk, I've been following your vidz for a short while, hoping to find some honest analysis. While there were some, u definitely leave out alot about the pipelines and what if u guys were the ones who did them in...well, I suppose the loudest and "victor" gets to write their version of history ...as u do
China's been talking about this since the 70's, they'll keep talking.
Taiwan has the nuclear infrastructure to build nukes? 😳 didn’t know that
I like Peter Zeihan, he his a great orator but I always feel like he is making up this stuff on the fly... haha
From an Indian pov: If China captures Taiwan, India takes over. Infrastructure will come with investments and necessity, and manpower is ample.
What should happen is ww should leave them to it. It isn’t our fight at all. Local countries need to step up to respect their local security.
"Chiner"
Doesn’t China and Russia both have everything each other needs though? China has all the industrialization and Russia has all the agriculture/natural resources. They could strictly trade with each other and cut themselves off from the rest of the world
We have yet to discover in both the Russian and Chinese cases just how willing each are to get their own forces destroyed in order to achieve strategic objectives. In the Russian case, they lack abundant personnel resources but in China's case, they have huge numbers that they can sacrifice in order to destroy an enemy of more technical capability but far fewer numbers and very little appetite for absorbing high casualties (the US). So, throwing more than enough manpower into the fight though being far less capable could still mean that China could prevail in a Taiwan conflict but it already looks like Russia has lost even if the Ukraine war drags on ad infinitum.
China has the ability to move 20k men during the first wave of an amphibious assault. Having a billion back on the mainland won’t help the troops on the beaches. Taiwan is able to deploy 250k anywhere on the island on day one. This also assumes no one decides to help Taiwan.
The current generation of Chinese combat soldiers are only children--not only the sole child but the "heir" (male child) of a Chinese family. The entire future of the family depends on them. Xi will destroy his own society if, as Zeihan says, a million of them get killed in the invasion.
It's a point worth considering, but I have two issues. Modern day war is not so much about superiority of manpower. China can't hurl millions of bodies at a problem and assume it will win. The name of the game, like it was by the end of WWII, is to destroy industry and ability to make war. If China can be starved with trade sections, and enough of their industry crippled through kinetic or cyber strikes, it's only a matter of time before their billion bodies are ineffective. I'd wager Taiwan and its close allies could hold the island long enough until the Chinese system is starved into backing off. On Russia, I first came across this idea from Jordan Peterson a couple days ago. What does it mean for Russia to win, really? Do they need full control of Ukraine, or do they just need to make sure NATO doesn't have it? Leaving it a scorched earth would serve his likely goal of being the natural gas hegemon for the entire continent. So... as long as he can throw enough bombs and bullets at it without resorting to nukes, he can achieve that goal. The real question is can the funds and arms from the West last long enough in the proxy war to thwart that end? It's obvious Putin is willing to pull out all the stops, so can the western suppliers outlast his war machine before Ukraine is all rubble?
Chinas populous may be large however you gotta consider the demography of those numbers. That’s not a billion fighting-aged men (or women) and even if it were, wars of attrition just wouldn’t work when all that’s needed in modern warfare is a button pusher
@@Robert-fx3ng that's the estimation going by China's known military transportation vessels. The US military has admitted that if they converted their civilian craft into transport, which they have started doing, by the way, their transportation capacity is near limitless. Obviously, they wouldn't storm a beach with a freighter. But, they can dock it at a port, of which Taiwan has many.
The Chinese would have to ferry their troops over a sea patrolled by nuclear attack submarines and probably stand-off ground mines just waiting to be activated. The initial loss would be seismic. Then the economic hit would bring them to their knees. If after watching the Russian /Ukraine war they still went ahead it would be crazy; but YES they might still try.All for one leader !!
Let me give you the short answer. Go back in time with me just a moment and rephrase the question. What will we do if Russia invades Ukraine?
Look, it’s the guy that doesn’t think Canada is a country.
U r saying a sovereign country INVADING its own province?????
Can’t setup supply lines into Taiwan like Ukraine. Might be a messy war but ultimately China could grind out a victory.
China's own supply lines are precarious. Over 60% of its oil comes via the sea with no easy overland route replacements. The three chokepoints for importing oil into China are controlled by the US Navy. A single destroyer group could blockade the Strait of Malacca, for example. The US Naval War College has published numerous papers on this topic. I take it you've not read any of them?
That isn’t the point. At all.
Yeah, but it could never hold onto it. If the US stopped Chinese companies from transacting in the US Dollar, the Chinese financial system will collapse. Imports of high grade coal stop so their cities and industry goes dark within months, like Peter said. There is really no way they could hold onto Taiwan even if they could nut out a very messy initial military win.
The dependency of supply ljnes is on the attacker, not the defender. The US allies could supply from sea, air, and maybe space. Thats besides whatevwr secret food bunkers and factories they have unserground on the island. All metrics of data show this invasion would be ridiculously hard to pull off while USA is supporting.
Did you even listen to the point in which he said "Mass starvation in under a year" for China?
Well west got involved with Ukraine because invasion lasted for so long. Look when Russia took over Crimea in 2014 or when it took over two regions in Georgia in 2008. nobody did anything because it was too quick to react. Same goes with Taiwan, the involvement of the west really depends on how long will the invasion last.
Mate!! All supposition, you have no idea.
Nope. Don’t like that.
The CCP would fall as unemployment skyrockets due to the West’s trade boycott.
I have no problem with his analysis, but I think he is underestimating how badly China wants Taiwan and how much they would be willing to loose to capture it. What the Chinese lack in technology and ability to defend itself from American Navy and Air Force power it can make up for in shear man power!!! What if China decides that loosing 4 million men, a small fraction of their total population, is an acceptable outcome in order to conquer Taiwan???
Nothing will happen as far as the U.S. is concerned.
There could be an amazing cuisine of new Thia and China food,.... let them invade.....
This is only true if you trust mainstream information... I have a bridge for sale.
I think China would become much closer with Russia for energy and food needs if this happens.. A lot of those waterway choke points could become less important if that happens.
Russia won’t be able to provide the amount of food necessary as in the long run it would need to secure its own food security.
Peter makes several leaping conclusions. 1. Taiwan will just build nukes? You have any idea how long that would take to develop those capabilities? China has nukes right now and Taiwan is a much smaller place with 3 main cities. 2. What sanctions will be placed on China and based on what exactly? Taiwan isn't an internationally recognized country like Ukraine. 3. Taiwan had 60 years to prepare, sure you think their weapon systems are up-to-date? How is their armed forces? They trainimg far less than Ukraine does. How many would stand and fight considering it's practically a death sentence and China has more bodies. 1 million people to China is a statical error when you have 1.3 billion people. 4. There are many Taiwanese that also believe in not separating from the mainland and the KMT is opposed to the DPP's declaration of independence. Many Taiwanese also see themselves as Chinese. It's a matter of government not a matter of country. The question is, when it comes time, how many Taiwanese would stand up to China when a large portion isn't opposed to China. It's fair more like there is a coup backed by the KMT to silence the DPP and force the military to stand down than to have a nuclear war. There's military personnel that are ready to respond against the DPP and declaration of independence. Look at the 1992 resolution that took place between KMT and CCP.
Clearly this guy didn't know what happened between 1946 to 1949.
This man has his homework done
but taiwan is lot lot smaller then ukraine
lol Taiwan does not have nuclear weapons though?
Stop standing sideways who are you trying to impress
They won't make it across the straight.