Why China Will Not Last This Decade - Peter Zeihan
2022 ж. 8 Там.
907 534 Рет қаралды
With tensions heating up between the United States and China, questions are being asked about the future of US global dominance, with China seen as the rising power to dethrone Uncle Sam. Peter Zeihan, a political strategist sees this picture very differently, arguing that China lacks many qualities to overtake the United States of America. Contrary to popular opinion, Peter Zeihan insists that the CHinese system is facing collapse and in this video, we will look at Peter Zeihan’s views on the future of China to see why China, as a country, will not last this decade. I hope you enjoy this video and without further adieu, You’re watching All Things Humanities.
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I bet in 10 years he'll be telling us about why china wont last past the 2030's.
i'm so tired of clickbait youtube. Just a waste of time. Try to find someone whose analyses are trustworthy and stick to them. The rest is just clickbait for money.
China will exist next month and 1000 years from now. The CCP may not make it through the decade .
First it was china won't last in the next 30 days now we are at 10 years...lol
Not without the others I'm their own groove.
He brings up all good points !
One can go back and forth about this subject all day and night…but being a former Veteran and someone who has spent some time in the Pentagon, I can say this…without being specific… The DOD, NSA, CIA and numerous think-tanks throughout this country, study China from top to bottom every minute of every day… I think this guy has some valid points, but he’s just scratching the surface when it comes to a geo-political and strategic analysis of China…
Agreed, he hasn’t even touched on the severe drought issues facing China, which are potentially the most important thing that they have to deal with. The entire world is facing similar challenges, but when your population is 1 billion + it becomes much more acute much more quickly. I don’t think his analysis is deep enough to support his conclusions with certainty, but without question it’s facing challenges like never before as so many people now live in cities as opposed to being a massively rural and agrarian economy. It’s unbelievably hard to do the transition China is attempting in such a short timeframe without also encountering huge obstacles.
@@sjsomething4936 spot-on…couldn’t agree more Sir…
@@sjsomething4936 In another video he mentions much of the Chinese grain storage methods do not preserve the grain. These videos tend to be a broad overview geared towards the specific audience.
@@jamesp3902 ah, this is the first video of his that I’ve watched, I’m rather fascinated by the status of China as it doesn’t get any real coverage in most news channels unless it involves mass casualties like an earthquake or flood. I was actually quite surprised by the non-payment of mortgage issues occurring with unfinished high rises so just had this video suggested to me. Thanks for the tip, I’ll watch a few more of his videos.
What you folks over look ad nauseam is cultural influence. How many Russian movies, music or other cultural influences do you see?
Fifteen years ago I was hearing the same dire predictions. Back then the line was 'Their banking system is a joke, it's a house of cards, just wait until the Olympics have been and gone. Everything will fall apart.' Uh-huh. Yeah, well... I pity the ordinary Chinese people who are caught in the trap of perpetual lockdown. We had our share of that in Australia, and thankfully we're past it.
Well, it is - their housing crisis is the most severe across the planet and your demographic collapse is inescapable. You can harp on as much as you want about how our predictions have been off, but a demographic collapse isn't something that will go away, it's a ticking time bomb, and it will go off sooner than later.
I want you to make a list of people you think weren't worth locking down for in Australia and then send them letters explaining why you believe they were expendable.
@@speedmastermarkiii Oh. Is that what you want?
@@Gregoryno6 Yep. I think it would be good for you.
I believe people are watching China with an eye that saw the fall of the Soviet Union that on the outside looked like a quick fall even though the Soviet Union was rotting for decades. I don't believe China will go away, but its glory days are more behind it than in front of it much like what happened with Japan.
I am actually a bit surprised by this guy, coz hardly could I find even a single point right about China in his speech. Anyone who has spent several months in China will get my point. It would be the best gift to China if all the so-called geopolitical analysts in USA are like him.
And when 2030 rolls by and China is still a nation, I want my 11 minutes and 10 seconds back with interest.
Watch indian astrologers predictions . China will break up in to 7 nations by the end of world War 3 i.e by 2032
Those was 11 min of pure stand up comedy. I was LMAO from start to the end
They endured through massive famine and decades of poverty, so…
What a joke, when Sunzi was writing the Art of War, Europeans were eating raw meat. A 245 years old nation is trying to play tactics with a 5,000 years old civilization.
China is a police state, with extremely firm grip on its population. Of course it won't collapse. It will just get hollowed out... more and more.
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing …. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China’s COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think 2022. Business Basics: China’s Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.
If I get a penny every time major publishers announce "China is crashing", I'll have maybe 20 bucks by now, which isn't much but it made me question the intentions behind these articles
It's all fun and games until one of those things happens.
@@Roonasaur Yeah, but Peter Zeihan is the one running with scissors in his outstretched hand, not China.
Talk to people who are there or been there recently who know the country. Things are going downhill fast as hell.
Real economic growth mostly ended in 1996. The real estate Ponzi scheme and mostly useless mega-projects has given the appearance of growth for the last 25 years.
The salient point to bear in mind with regards to China is that , unlike western governments, they look to the long term 15-20 years. Western politicians sadly only look to the next elections and there lies the nub of the problem.
Perhaps you haven't heard of the New American Century - 100 year plan...
@@_truthful_q_ never been sure if that was / is preceint or total neo-con madness.
Sometimes they think in terms of centuries. For example, they have yet to open the first emperor's tomb which if the legends are true would be the greatest achaelogical find ever.
This idea that China thinks long term is a myth. Their handling of covid is ample evidence 😊
These idiots predicted China would collapse but I predicted the total opposite. And I predict China will keep rising for at least two hundreds years. I am tired of these idiots.
A 250 year old former country (now just an economic zone w/ nukes) is saying a 5 millennium old civilization is going to evaporate. You can't make this up😂
Interesting take. Its the China & Asia that is rising. unless they are brought to their knees by perpetrated wars. The west can't bear to see the change in super power status.
He just means it won't exist as it is today in like 10 years. He also said that the lack of people will really hurt them in 2050, IF nothing else goes wrong. I think he says in 10 years because there are too many things going wrong all at the same time. War, COVID 19 virus, less people to make things, corruption in government, producing too much money, Americans losing interest in keeping the waterways and oceans safe for trade, etc. Just Peter is saying this, not America, but a few people agree with him in some things and the US military asks him questions and consult with him. Whether they take his answers seriously, that I don't know.
The “China will surpass the US” talk is almost identical to what everyone was saying about Japan 10-15 years ago. And it never happened.
I guess this is what I like about Peter zeihan. He looks at the political realities of each state and then makes arguments about the future, rather than being theoretical.
It might happen for a couple of years and then is free fall. China has like 20M single men that won't get married. They have a bleak future ahead of them
@Circuitous 2 for that you need severe R&D and for that, you need talented people. That people dont stay in china
@Circuitous 2 True. Fortunately, they aren't going to develop such a thing. They've reverse engineered practically all of their technology from stolen US and Soviet IPs (most of which were US knockoffs to begin with), and barely have anyone who truly understands how any of it works or why as a result. Anyone who did has probably been purged by Xi the Pooh at this point. So even when their tech does work, it's subpar. Plus practically nobody in China innovates because slaves don't innovate. There's no incentive to besides not being shot, and that's not a substitute for true passion and drive.
@@sinenomine7115 by the way. Where is jack Ma???
As a Chinese, I have to say that we've heard "the incoming collapse of China" for at least 3 decades. And we expect to continue hearing it for another decade.
Nobody wants to deal with Chynnnna any longer, you guys suck at ruling your own people and yall are fake af. 😒 Communisn sucks and your people does not deserve it!
next 3 decades until the USA collapses, then this crap will end 😂
Hope it falls soon...
@@mikewheeler3994 Even if you are biologically 3 years old, you still won't live to see the collapse of China, nevermind you only have the mental capacity of one.
No, no you have not. When China was legit growing at 6%+ no one was saying they were doomed in the short term. No one. The Population Pyramid (with fake data hiding female infanticide) is an overhang that is inescapable. In 20 years, who is going to occupy all of the real estate they are currently building? It’s simple math.
Very interesting and thought provoking information shared! But still need to wait a long way for that. 🤣🤣
Very interesting however! 3:30 I was living in China 15 years, I had all my vacinations in China, returning to UK a few months ago and caught covid, 2 days sick and fine. My point! Chinese will not die but they think they will.
Most Chinese will not die. But there's a lot of them. Millions will die and that is trouble.
@@seanbear69 My point Sen is; Their vaccinations work, millions wont die but is their way to keep foreigners out and the fear in their minds.
I was told China will collapse when I was a little kid and now I am 32.
We were also supposed to 'drive' flying cars. Alas, only in cartoons.
China is such a vile police state with hundreds of millions of cameras the population can be controlled
China is Unstoppable and will be the dominant power and displace the American Century A good move forward
You were told no such thing. The main story about China in the last 30 years was its rise. It's only now people are starting to predominantly talk about its collapse. It's not as recent as you think it is.
@@shawna3394 Let's talk about the deterioration of US's social and economic downfall which is more imminent.
This guy is right. China has been dying for 5000 years, but still in the process of dying. How many thousands years needed to complete this process. So funny to have such a mindset.
It's like a dying star.
5000 years? PRC is barely 70 years old. By your logic Modern Iraq is Mesopotamia, modern India is IVC.
@@dheera8889 it's China that keep insisting on "ancient" Chinese documents and routes and influence and whatnots.
@@alexanderthegreatoz5945 that's called stupidity..
@@dheera8889 india is just a 70 years old country and also present day india would not be like be big before British came to south asia.
Considering how connected our economies are, I struggle with isolating the demise of one super power without considering our own local fiscal blemishes. The west has been exporting its inflation for decades. Hard working Chinese are going to lose their retirements due, in part, to their government enabling a property bubble. However, I see similar conditions existing close to home as well.Central banks have somehow managed to create massive asset bubbles that may result in similar 'pain'. We are in the beginnings of a quantitive tightening cycle in the mouth of an impending recession. How can anyone be throwing a rock when all of us are living in glass houses?
We are not perfect so we shouldn't try to predict future risks from other countries. 🤔
As a young man without sin, I threw the first rock, now that's rotflmao
America is on it's way to a collapse as well. If China collapses we will just get there sooner
I live in a wooden and metal house. Idk what ur talking about bub. Go back to ur Libral thought bubble, nerd.
China isn’t a super power. If they were they’d be openly supporting Russia. China is the C in BRIC.
Potash is also used in gunpowder they may be using it for that purpose rather than use in producing rice crops.
As we all known, China has been collapsing for more than twenty years. And eventually, today, it becomes the 2nd largest economy in the world. I believe it will continue to "collapse".
Indeed
Well the bank runs aren't a good sign...
Zhina's economic growth rate has decelerated to such a point not even Xilter the Poor is confident Zhina will escape the middle income trap. Look no further from the disastrous demographic problem Zhina is facing, neither immigration nor pro-birth policies will save the ageing Zhina
@@chunkailau2448 What's with the Z's? But yeah they are heading into a massive real estate pop which makes up around 30% of their GDP and by the time that they have a chance to pull themselves out of it they hit their demographic wall.
You were not listening to the lecture, it was showing the problems China is facing because of many different things. It wasn't talking about China in the last 20 years. The problems he brought up are very real and honest, not that China can't over come them. But at it's current trajectory unless they change certain things their in trouble.
Hey, love this content and thanks for the upload. But please could you in the intro/description let us know when this talk was given? It’s really relevant for context! Thanks!
Hi George, it was from the Iowa swine day 2022, from the Iowa pork industry centre.
@@allthingshumanities5328 June 29th, cool! Many thanks!
@@allthingshumanities5328 Recently, China has had major problems with diseased hogs. Xi, of course, is the CPC's fattest and most problematic hog.
A look into what made America great--at least in the later part of the eighteenth century--can be found in the book Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin. The book says that newly-elected President Abraham Lincoln CHOSE to have cabinet members and other advisors with a variety of views, often in sharp conflict to his own. While Abraham Lincoln often had to make very difficult decisions, he did so with a broad knowledge of many of the factors involved.
Abraham Lincoln wasn't even alive in the 18th century.
America was not Great until the end of the 19th century at the earliest. Greatness before that rested entirely on the British ...
@@speedmastermarkiii Yeah, I was about to say.
Common sense is what it takes to raise a child,a household and a safe and furnishing neighborhood. Greed and goverment criminal greed is the downfall of any country. Flood and fire seems to be the least of the world ending predictions. Greed and stupid men..... THAT IS THE END that's coming.
@@speedmastermarkiii He meant to say during the 1800's and THAT makes sense !
Being an Indian who lived in and out of Chiina many times, there is only one thing I can say. It's the people who builds and destroys a nation. If you have a free thinking nation that stands together, nothing can destroy it.
But the Chinese aren't free thinking
@@ronaldalexander5377 You mean they sometimes think about things besides mutilating children ?
But they don't have a "Free thinking nation"
Tell the American GOP group that please. They might... listen.
@@Orcalein7367 they have much more rights than Americans
From Forbes; _"The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the aerospace industry and the mining industry. The three largest employers in the U.S are Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot"_ You do the Math.
Where are their products coming from ?😁😁😁😁
Chinese Aerospace? This is joke, right? I don't recall seeing a lot of Chinese airliners being purchased by foreign countries like I see with Boeing in America or Air Bus in Europe, or Falcon, or Cessna, or Beechcraft or Bell or Bombardier or Gulfstream or Embraer. There is no "Aerospace" industry in America? China may employ a lot of people in oil and gas but that is for domestic consumption, not export.
The largest employers in China is the central government, the internal security organisatioon and the military.
I am afraid you are the one who didn't. Where are the numbers telling about economy? The largest employment doesn't translate into prospering and sustainable economy.
Where is the math in your statement?
Surely, that's been what a lot of "geopolitical experts" believed in the past 30 years...
Yeah like russians and chinese are saying the west is falling for double the amount of time and still today rely completely on western technology.
What are the other two reasons? We got #3, what are #2 & #1? Seems important, and why wasn't it shown in this video?
It also depends on how our leaders get along with each other . It's up to the world leader's and their policies in the future.
Can we have the link to the full lecture??
he is not a professor or an educator, don't kid yourself that this is a lecture lol
@@Trenacetate43 his talk is very factually based and just makes predications given current events. Granted in a nihilistic twist
As Roger Stone once said to me "China doesn't have the Oil for War"
It has plenty of gutter oil 😩
That's actually the only anti-China comment in here that makes any sense at all.
@@justanotheroldguy738 With the russian oil... problem solve!
@@ottorucavado2242 Maybe. But in time of war, it's a foolish country that trusts another for its survival. Tho, I do bet that the Chinese have a HUGE stockpile of oil. Their government plans ahead and I bet they buy when prices are low and store it all over the country.
@@justanotheroldguy738 Twitter was Streamed at me for making that my highlighted tweet onto, considering someone in the Saudi Royal Family and dozens of other Blue Check Marks from around the World, so I didn't last long on Twitter. And to that twit going problem solved Russian Oil.. well that takes time, and given all the fundamentals against China now is their Peek of Power, and by the time they sort out their Oil Issue, they'll be past their peek power and alliances against them firmly rooted. Right now, the Vast Majority of their Oil is Imported, and even excluding India, the US, Japan, UK, Australia and others can 100% cut their maritime Oil Supply off which is most of their Oil. With India Involved, it would be far to easy. So the Fact is, China doesn't have the Oil for War at the Peek of their Power. Look into China's Population Demographics, Rising Costs, Global Hatred, and all the Debt, Cooked Books, and Bubbles. And by the time they start feeling it, and have to draw down spending on the Military, will be with the lag time of Republics when we really start building, and a Future China will be Dwarfed Militarily, and may have to Pay the Piper again, and here comes another 100 years of shame, started by the same piss poor Behavior by them as the 1st time. A Silk Road Existed, so China must be Number Wone and every Bow for all Time, accept Rome was Number Wone, places like Eygpt before and all of Christidom which took over the world. So I'm just not sure how a Silk Road, means China was Number Wone and it's So Unfair if we don't bow down and let it happen again in a nasty zero sum gain game...
Thank you All Things Humanities. Your warn or curse alerts us and makes us do better to survive this decade. Thanks.
Not until you get rid of the current leadership. Useless fools.
Both Peter Zeihan and George Friedman are social engineers much more than analysts. They create an US-centric version of possible future and attempt to sell it as the only possible one.
Not true. They tell you the truth but you can’t handle the truth. Europe will probably survive current changes. US definitely will. Russia has a problem. They have a very small economy, a small population, health issues, and demographic problems. None bode well for the future. Three of the four likely poles in the new world order are on their borders and have cultures and religious views counter to Russian heritage and traditions. Those new civilizational powers have 30 times Russia’s population. So, who’s in the jam actually?
I am not sure about that. I watched another geopolitical person discussing Zeihan and he did not disagree with him. He made a few observations regarding small disagreements, but basically agreed with Zeihan
I been hearing about his for the last 20 years about China. When it happens, it is not because of these analysis, but an inevitable of all economies and empires.
China will 'implode' (and was destined to FAIL) because of "communism," alone. You cannot maintain a REAL (sound) economy for long the way these narcs and psychos operate... Their GOAL (the CCP) was "global dominance..." (and theft, by deception, under a very 'corrupt' regime...) so they too, will soon FAIL quite, miserably. Socialism and Communism simply DO NOT WORK. And BTW, that "analysis" was known by the (much more "devious") Frankist School, when they invented it back in the 1830s, to take- down 'sovereign' countries and governments. The CCP clearly aren't very "street wise" smart, in the "Western" sense. The IH$/ BANK$TERS make and break these "puppet dictator" nation states of all sizes and "isms" under their UN, central banks/ WB/ IMF/BI$ and now 'fused' with the WEF's "new rules" of globalized, totalitarianism." Had China built a viable (sound) alternative... then they wouldn't BE in their current predicament. Nor would Russia, Europe, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, or anyone else. When 'tyrants' are allowed (by the people...) to "run the show" off a fiscal, to "physical cliff..." the OUTCOME, is then inevitable. ;-)
The general consensus of China in the early 2000s were the exact opposite though, china would be an unstoppable giant that would eventually replace the US as the world leader
Interesting lecture and explaination.
China has over a 3000 year history compared to the U.S 250 years. Chinese has discipline, patience and are group focused, they will overcome any short term obstacles and rise to dominance.
Right maybe you mentioned the drought that has drained their river system. The factors leading to this dramatic drought are getting stronger and the drought will get worse. They do have access to coal but this will only worsen their continental heat wave. They are in trouble . The US will also have a profound drought in the Southwest.
To counter the oil problem; China is developing the silk road, which, in theory, allows roads, shipping ports, and railroads to transport energy to multiple spots throughout China. A massive undertaking indeed with plenty of problems.
It’s US’s nightmare and doing everything to stop it. Sadly Europe, especially Germany, let US took over and lead them into disaster
30 of those bridges have already collapsed because of corruption
What has the 3 (and now possibly an additional northern) silk roads modern China proposes got to do with China's oil problems? As of today, China's oil and gas infrastructure is nearly non-existent. China largely depends on coal for its energy needs and imports what it can't produce. China is building as much Green source energy as it can, but as large as those efforts are, are hardly making a dent in China's overall needs. Hardly any pipelines connect Russia's oil fields to China, I think there might be one slow capacity line and AFAIK doesn't lead to any manufacturing center in China so has to be transported further once in China. China hardly has any oil tanker ships and is buying as many decommissioned and near decommissioned ships as it can. Oil and gas is not transported efficiently or economically by road or railroad, and China has little or no port capacity to support oil and gas.
Thats another reason bcz till now no study of economical value is done on that and china is taking huge debts for that and for last India is still in b/w that's why US is betting on india.
Inflation is already here . . . and not going away anytime soon. China real estate market collapse, draught and food shortages. Maybe in twenty yrs the silk could be completely, but china will run out of money long before then.
If you don’t even know your enemies, how do you expect to win? Surely, one can be the winner forever in Lala land.
Prioritising health in a country where the air is thick with pollution, rivers are full of heavy metals, and there is literally not a single bird in the sky.
He did not even talk about investment on the American economy by CHina like pork processing companies, and farm real estate or land near Air Force and other military installations.
To the people that say “ i knew this was coming” Cmon, you did not, this dude slapped everyone in the face with his recent book and turned conventional wisdom on its head.
@@wesdonovan821 Guess no one listened, until COVID.
@@kanahildjaminami2542 Wrong, nobody listened EVEN during COVID to both real & fake experts, from Fauci to this charlatan political strategist.
gordon chang since 01.
It's still just a theory, so no one has been slapped yet. Relax.
He's a Yank, He's got yank VALUES, money PROFIT, SO HE IS HERE TRYING TO SELL HIS. B O O K. That is why he wrote it, JUST saying what he knows suckers want to believe , oil bet he's never had a real job in his life AND he has no intention of getting one
Peter is great, but I regard him more as an informer and entertainer than a serious geopolitical analyst. He's emotive and his facts are often wrong so I take him with a container ship of salt.
Nice joke kiddo ! This clown is just a bigot which he has ignored how many gringos has died
justice will prevail
@@alanpatterson4217 yes for all the atrocities committed by the Gringos In Middle East and all over the world
True. As much as I want the CCP to fall, I'm taking this with truckloads of salt
Peter sells copium to Western civilization.
Where is the rest of his presentation?
Love this guy!
Nice idea to get liked by an American audience and thus generate a significant income with a series of lectures simply by telling people what they deep down want to hear. What is sold here is the pleasant feeling that arises when a possibility is opened up that one's own longings could still be fulfilled. The prospect of a safe and secure future is given space by the postulate of China's economic, political and military inferiority and the audience is sedated and lulled with the drug of a rosy future. A certain level of plausibility that satisfies minimum requirements is completely sufficient, the actual truth content plays no role at all for the successful effect.
How is China to remain competitive as a net fuel and food importer when they no longer have a low cost labor advantage? With food and fuel shortages?
@@billyjoeallen I think there is a misunderstanding here. My comment was much less about criticizing what is being said and more about sharing my guess as to why what is being said is being said.
@@redsock4843 that's fair.
China wants to rule the world. China has very publicly stated this. China is growing economically and is on a path to surpass the West. China Xi can't wait for the 2050 plan to unfold. He sees a shortcut to surpassing the West, economically, Destroy their economies. The Globalists don't want to hear this, that they will be beat. So, yes you are correct, Zeihan is a Snake Oil Salesman, offering the weakest idea on how China can't win. But, if we acknowledge an evil plan, we should not just dismiss a failed defense against it, but think of a functioning one.
@@BigWoofers so much wrong. China is not even a regional power. China wants to BECOME a regional power, not to rule the world but they are failing at even this. They are hemmed in by mountains and island chains, cursed by lack of energy resources and arable land. Their one advantage was people but they destroyed that with population control.
Chinese culture had been around for some 5000 years and I think it will continue for at least 10 more years.
are you living under a rock or did you not know the communist completely destroyed any thing that was left of "chinese culture"
LOL, don't discuss winter with bugs, they don't even know winter exists. That's literally what happens when Americans talks about China
When you have benevolent leaders , who respects diversity, religious and economic freedom the country will flourish! But when you have totalitarian regime that controls everything what their citizens do, this regime will crumble sooner or later…
Sure that culture invested by 19th century ideologues who've never worked a day in their lives and never picked up anything heavier than a book sure while traditional culture has been in decline since Mao. The sooner the CCP kicks the bucket the better as what is there now is little more than a cancer on the backs of the Chinese people.
culture.. not the nation.. 2 very different things.. can you count how many times china became whole again and then it broke again? Failing to see this first step is already a failure on your part.
When he shows the shale map China seems to have a large amount of it, I'm confused .
Just a note from a European perspective on your intro. Without further ado is a phrase I hear often and sometimes I hear without further adieu spoken. Adieu is a French word for goodbye. In Europe we could never confuse. However without further goodbye could mean goodbye for the final time. This might accidentally work.
If everything was static i agree with Peter, but Russia as well as China recognize the problem and create new customers, allies and suppliers all the time. Its all dynamic. Russia permafrost will not freeze the pipelines because there is no customers moving their oil. They will hustle to reduce being cut off. This is not North Korea were nothing goes or functions to get in or out. Most countries realize that after COVID and the Ukraine conflict and reduce the risk. The Chinese Navi has not been in a hot war since I was born 1974, so their reach and capabilities + not high ranking officer with any experience might be worse then Russia unless they take on undefended islands.
You are correct about the PLA Navy. Numbers and sheer firepower is one thing against a small and weak objective, but facing a peer adversary is when the SHTF. The ability to fight a ship successfully is down to training, disclipline and experience and the PLA Navy has never been tested in actual combat. You only have to look at the conflict in Ukraine to see how a larger and better equipped force can be defeated by a smaller but better trained and motivated adversary employing superior tactics.
@@iankuah8606 No. It's the doctrine of any military that matters the most, then comes the tactics. And tactics entirely dependent on the level of technology that the military is employing. The technology of each nation is not equal. Some are obviously superior to others and some are obviously inferior. If any superior military is being beaten in a war then it is not the failure of the technology but the military doctrine, tactics and ultimately the geographical strategy. What we are seeing in Ukraine is the failure of Russian military doctrine, it is not the failure of Russian firepower at all. Don't be so deluded at all, know this - that Russia could squash Ukraine anytime it wants, if they are enduring such losses then there is definitely something they want or else they could have blown all of Ukraine by now. By general observation, it is clear that Russia is sparing the powerplants and industrial units of Ukraine so that they can use those for themselves later when they capture the entire Ukraine.
@@ajaykumarsingh702 This comment aged like milk. Haven't laughed so hard for a long time. So anyway, how's Russia's control over Izyum and the adjacent cities?
@@iankuah8606 if theres a war between the US and china its already game over. Nukes will fly, Guaranteed.
Zeihan's theory of money may not be on point, but the possibility of him being close to accurate on resources is quite an eye opener.
His point about demographics is the real killer….he thinks china (not being overrun by “refugees” or being demographically replaced by foreigners) won’t outlast America (first empire I can think of whose goal became genocide of its founding stock was made policy)….on that I believe he’s completely and painfully wrong
zeihan is a neo con, people like him have been responsible for the managed decline of the states based on the false notion that an america led world order is morally superior. Hence america has Gotten itself entangled in forever wars wasting lives and resources, accelerating the decline of an otherwise healthy country. Listen to him at your own peril
I'll trust his theories over anything you have to say.
Come on, stopping stealing shiitt, you thieves, china has collapsed long ago and many times.
What theory of money? That RMB is a total fraud and a political token?
Yes I agree
But .. the map of shale clearly seems to show a very large shale area in China, and it can be brought online quickly, apparently, and Russia is looking for places to export its oil as the EU is cutting them off?
The oil problem is the same as the Japanese navy had during ww2
Good point. We all know how the Japanese tried to solve that problem. Hope history does not repeat itself yet again, even if we are talking about other countries.
@@pp2021 Most modern wars are fought over scarce natural resources.
@@blaisepascal5197 ALL wars are fought over resources, or, what you have got and how Im going to take it away from you. Has been since the first caveman lobbed a rock at his neighbor
@@pp2021 I considered that response, and discarded it , but upon reflection I agree with your conclusion. Thou shall not covet your neighbor's ass.
This is why Chinese hate Japanese as well, because Japanese also invaded China to rob their land and resources. Yet today America is sided with Japanese, the devil.
Interesting contrarian view. Most points not well evidenced. But the key observation that China is dependent on oil imports mostly from the Middle East and that such imports are easily interdicted both by US surface and submarine forces was well taken. In addition, China has an export based economy that would be shut down globally by the US Navy. China is building a navy but it is short on substantial ships and submarines and it takes decades to build a navy that is actually effective, well-trained, and has first-rate battle tactics.
The USA has them on the navy, but China is circumventing all of that. The Belt and Road Initiative is providing them all forms of trade transport via land. They have a base in Djibouti, Sri Lanka, and many others in places people are totally unaware of......yet. Pakistan is in their hip pocket because India is against China and Pakistan is against India. When TSHTF, China is prepared. They can get all the energy they'll ever need from Russia.
Dig a little deeper. Only 20% of its energy mix is oil & gas. It's mostly coal. US allies in East Asia are actually far more dependent on imported energy. Is the US just gonna "block Malacca"? Western brains are not very developed. Too much nationalism, not enough thinking. This is why West is crushed by Russia on energy.
My oh my, you are so easily led.. As an ex military man, all I can say is "Never underestimate your enemy"
Hold on a minute... The US can have the best army in the world but couldn't win the Gulf War, Vietnam wars or even be successful in Afghanistand and you guys want to fight with a army which is bigger than yours?
Nonsense. The Belt and Road project is being built for a reason: Facilitating trade. And the Russians will sell them all the energy they need. The US may not be able to shut down their trade via the sea because of guided missiles. Battleships and carriers are sitting ducks to guided missiles, so the Navy itself is not nearly as important as it once was. They can hit a destroyer from hundreds of miles away spot on with a guided missile. Subs are still very important though and the US has the edge there as of now.
Same as america. They have shell oil too. Look at the graph when he talks about oil.
The world is dependent on China for manufactured goods so if China's economy ceases up, the rest of the world will suffer from massive shortages. The cost of reversing offshoring is often more than if we'd just kept local manufacturing going.
@John Chen then why dont they move everything all out of China? No infrastrusture can be better in the world then China has
@John Chen Vietnam is China's natural ally, they'll continue to drift closer to China. It would take a lot longer than 3 years for India to build up the equivalent manufacturing base that China has to supply the West. Also, I know the West (or specifically the Anglo countries) have been pinning their hopes on making India their new China. However, one must consider for a moment that India has her own direction. Any Western deal with India will have to seriously take into account the interests of 1.4 billion people. So things won't be as simple as India hitting pause on their balanced economic development, and doing everything it can to save the West. No doubt the West has put a lot of effort in the past 20 years to position things in a way to increase the odds of the West winning the cold war. Alas, it's proving the West has sacrificed a lot in this battle. Humanity would've been a lot better off had the West embraced China's rise, respected that they have their own non-Western values & culture. Instead the West, in particular the US has a problematic model which dictates that it must be No 1. in the tech tree. the top stone in the pyramid. However it only has 350 million, mostly poorly educated people suffering from a great deal of physical and mental health issues, drug addiction, mass shootings, and single-parent children. It's rather arrogant for a nation to presume that they're the only ones worthy of furthering humanity, when they reached their peak over 50 years ago when they landed on the Moon. Since then, their monopoly of corporations have been been artificially putting the brakes on technological innovation in order to control their people, and by extension the world.
How about having the rest of the world starts to manufacture some things?
In a few years, all that china makes could and would be made somewhere else.
The cost of independence is always high and always worth it
I'm Indian, so watching China prosper was nerve-racking for us, mainly because we knew when China becomes all powerful, it'll wield it militarily and squeeze India economically. Something that's happening right now. However, Indians always had an affinity towards the Chinese people, largely because of our centuries old cultural relationship. That's why despite China's aggression in Galwan in 2020, which resulted in the death of 20 of our brave soldiers, you don't hear too much cynicism from the India government nor the people against China (for comparison see how we see Pakistan). That said, I believe China will somehow swim through (a Mao Zedong pun) these dark times. The west, especially America would love to see China falter and disintegrate, but it won't happen to the magnitude they expect.
I'm American. I would not love to see China falter or disintegrate. What I would love to see is a China that does not want to rule the world, that is not aggressive, that does not threaten and bully its neighbors, that does not use debt trap and wolf warrior diplomacy, that does not steal intellectual property, that does not make unsafe products, food and medicine, I would like to see a China that was democratic, believed in human rights, that believed in free trade. I would love to see a China, and an India, and many other nations that live in peace with one another, are prosperous, and free.
@@scottperry7311 i am indian i hate communist china or any country but i dont hate chinese people you white racist xhristians will keep on hating play dirty games but asia will rise again usa is biggest violator or human rights your government support radical islamic terrorism against my country bangladesh liberation was is a good example of it
@@scottperry7311 that's USA
@@scottperry7311 China will never want to rule the world. Only the USA does. The USA goes further than that, the USA steal, rob and kill. Just look at what they had done to Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Vietnam, and the list goes on.
What is the REAL population of India?
For anyone wanting the full lecture, look up Peter's Iowa Swine Day lecture from June of this year
Why don't you just post the link so we don't have to search for it?
@@thund3rstruck kzhead.info/sun/is2YnqqyaHWAhoE/bejne.html&ab_channel=IowaPorkIndustryCenter
@@thund3rstruck I dunno. Some people don't like it. Not much else if you're looking for just China-related bits of the speech
He is simply rehashing many points that have been in circulations since 1980s. His approach is so similar to that of Gordon Chang and his best selling book The Coming Collapse of China. The fact is, internal cohesion within China is much more harmonious compare to that of USA. USA has very serious polarisations between different groups. And the Census USA 2020 that released some data in 2021 indicates that the percentage of those classified as 'Whites' has dropped below 60%, Those under 15 years old, 'Whites' are below 50%. Even Ray Dalio and many others have expressed fears of USA descending into a civil war. After watching this video, I understand why USA is in such a state.
Yes, bring this fact up with any Zeihan fan and watch them shut up immediately. "demographics is destiny' alright. And the destiny of the US is to turn into another LATAM country.
This.... Is. Good. I. Wish. There. Was. More. Info. GOOD. STUFF
Peter Zeihan should be appointed as director of China Strategic Broadcasting Bureau and he will be paid 100 million yuan per year for his brilliant broadcasting work
Yes Please, Please make the politicians in the USA believe this.
The only thing USA politicians believe is the gas they produce when they speak, nobody else can stand the smell though.
I totally support your proposal 😁. Unless the US politicians discovers that Peter is a agent of the communists 😂.
It's even WORSE than we thought... kzhead.info/sun/pc-poLNspl-HfKM/bejne.html
The people of China have the same aspirations as most people in the world but the CCP is no better than hitler or stalin or putin. We are waiting for these tyrants to fall and biden to go.
The economy of major nations has global ramification, China has invested in several countries including Australia, Africa, South America and China's own military, even in the U.S. who depends on China more than China on U.S. Chinese exports are down ~7.5%, but we'll see if the trend continues, Chinese people are very resilient, shrewd and focused.
A talented stand-up comedian!
Well said! Very Difficult to take him seriously even from a Hongkonger living in the U.K. The Mid-West have their own "Sub-Culture"' and Narrow View on the Rest of the World; similar to some "Counties" in the U.K. Most have never ventured further East than Western Turkey and they Profess. to know the Whole Of Asian and E. Asia. Some still believe that Alexander the Great really did conquer the WHOLE of Asia and China/ Korea/ Japan. What can U do but smile!😄
OMG, I admire this you tuber for how short sighted he is and yet brave enough to show the world his limitations of knowledge. This is the exact reason why humanity cannot advance more
Where is he wrong?
@@janetracer you need better education, outside of US-controlled media
@@Western_Decline obviously you need the education. I asked one simple question..."where is he wrong?" Yet you can't opine even one thing about what he said you believe is incorrect.
The people of China have the same aspirations as most people in the world but the CCP is no better than hitler or stalin or putin. we are waiting for these tyrants to fall
Love your sarcastic wit..!! But still very true..!! 🤣
They'll survive, of course they will, these countries always find a way to respond and adapt.
Sure, they will survive, but in what condition in comparison to the other economic/political powers?
@@kamcobbe ,,,,what, Like the US, pretty much broke, crumbling from the inside out, yet they carry on like so many other countries in similar positions.
China will survive, but not at the level it has enjoyed over the last few decades due to western investment. That last is leaving and won't return. China will decline as a result. They cannot exist without the West pumping cash into them.
@@kamcobbe Like which one? Japan, Korea, EU which are all aging faster? USA useful population is also aging. The young don't earn back their cost of capital.
China will always exist. With any luck they will throw off the corrupt CCP and have some real reform.
What's funny about the original Silk Road - that was built by the Arab merchants not the Chinese. China stayed isolated for centuries but the Arab (and some Jewish) merchants saw the goods China had and exported them from China to Europe via both sea and overland routes. Both the Chinese and Europeans never met each other (not until the 1800's) only the Arabs merchants were the middle men. Also don't forget Marco Polo was a merchant like his father and probably heard of China from the Arab merchants his father did business with.
He raised valid points. He did not mention that there are forces breaking down the US way of life. Whichever system fails 1st will by default makes the other the winner.
And that's what scares me.
Because the USA is democracy It will survive the breaking USA forces internally and externally - look back at US history how many times the Breaking USA forces attempted to destroy the Union.... The next 10 years will be hard for all countries China is unlikely to survive the Demographic collapse of an unimaginable scale. this Decade is the Tipping point
Home-grown, made in the good ol' USA forces, too. As an outsider, I look at the USA and see a bunch of people who hate each other but don't have the guts to do anything about it.
Marxists in control of both system now seek only to make bloody sure only they stay (forever) in power. The critical error in the USA (200+ years ago) was not to incorporate robust Term Limits in our Constitution. Now we're reaping the results of lifelong blood suckers in our federal government system.
Well said, your very insightful to state what is not right in the face of many stupid, oblivious people. There are most certainly forces which are most definitely communist chinese moles as well as other nefarious frenemies that are currently & actively undermining the U.S. population.
Peter Zeihan is very funny. He has a very good sense of humour for someone that discusses such heavy topics.
He is an entertainer of heavy topics,...
people listening will need a good sense of humour because there is no way China will be over in a decade, this is a classic example of a Westerner not understanding China
@Circuitous 2 I'll bet you any money you want
Well, you have to learn how to make with the hahas or eose you'd either cry or be paralyzed with fear or worry.
@@stephenglover8828 so how do you think they are going to diffuse their demographic timebomb and secure their energy source in the event of a conflict with the west? These are very real problems they need to solve if they are to continue to exist as a major power.
I agree with Peter Zeihan's basic analysis of the problems China is facing. In fact, in some areas, I think he might be understating them. However, for me, his analysis falls short because -- IF China collapses -- we have some very serious questions that our leaders need to know the answer to. 1. What will be the nature of the collapse? Will it be limited to financial/economic collapse. Like the US system collapsed during the Great Depression & Dust Bowl, but our political system wasn't fazed. Or, will the collapse be more like the fall of the Soviet Union, where the center failed, and the constituent parts split off. China has had several periods where that has happened. 2. If the political center fails, and China breaks into multiple parts -- who would rule those parts? What kind of political system might they adopt? Will any be pro-US, or pro-west? Will they be war-like, or accommodating? How should the US navigate that situation? What are the threats, risks, and opportunities that we may face? 3. What role would the PLA play in the change of regime? Especially if the center holds. 4. Can the center hold? Is that even a possibility? 5. What other ways can China collapse besides military coup, failure of center, and financial/economic? 6. Can the process of collapse cause a war to break out? If so, who would be the enemy? India? Taiwan? someone else? I have way more questions. This is what I would like to see analyzed. Concluding that China will fail is really low hanging fruit, and doesn't take much to understand that. A few years ago, it was prescient. Now, its old news. C'mon Peter, put on your thinking hat, and do some real analysis. We need it now.
If you have lived in China for any length of time, you can understand how ridiculous this speech is. You'll also realize that the chances of what you've listed happening are almost zero. So don't worry about what can't happen.
@@nlmw I understand that to someone inside the system, that the CCP and Xi would appear to be all powerful. But, the fundamentals are there. The current system is unsustainable -- and therefore must end. The only question is when and how? Now, when a huge country like China declines, it may take decades to end. Rome started declining in the 4th Century, but it took almost 200 years for it to finally end. I don't think China will collapse tomorrow, though it might. It could go on for decades more. But, if it does, it will be increasingly isolated -- like a gargantuan North Korea.
@@nlmw Years ago Zhinese idiots were confident the fast pace of the Zhinese economic growth will persist for a long time and surpassing the USA was just a matter of time. Everything was so rosy until it suddenly became not. Brace yourself for the imminent demographic disaster, no country is bailing you out this time.
given current social trends in china, a populist modi/putin style conservative nationalist revolution will replace the technocratic CCP, it will be just as authoritarian as the CCP but with a far more rightwing bent.
@@nlmw Collapses happen suddenly. The ancient romans also had an economic high and people were living a good life just until the day the collapse started out of nowhere.
The Shale Map that Peter displays at video time 8:50. He says we are the only ones that produce shale where we live. Peter does not mention the elephant in the room as far as his Shale Map showing China having substantial deposits of Shale Oil in the lands of “rump” China where most of the Han Chinese live and in the far north west of XinJiang China where most of the Uhighur Muslims live. Peter does a fantastic job explaining this in his 2nd book Absent Superpower and I believe maybe(can’t quite recall and need to pull it from my bookshelf) in his 3rd Book Disunited Nations. In a Video presentation Peter cannot go into as much book level detail as he does in Absent Superpower but he should not show the map and let it pass without a brief two sentence explanation if the premise of the video is a collapsing China of which one contributing factor would be a future lack of access to fossil fuel energy.
We shall see...
He sounds very convincing to himself. Good job!
Yup. He mentioned india🇮🇳 is a contributor.
@Asahi Ogawa Hello bot
he's a grifter, selling cope to Western civilization
People need to rub it in how wrong he got his 2020 predictions were. He literally said that covid was going to see the CCP overthrown that year.
I am watching this from India a country where as a child we used to read that we would be overtaking the Chinese economy by 2020, now it's the year 2022. The thing is that the west over enthusiasm in downplaying countries with differing ideological views has created a world order where we live in a make believe scenario while the monster grows bigger and bigger.
In india we think we are sole super power 🤣🤣🤣 but reality is we are still struggling china economy 17 trillion at the moment but our economy just 3.3 trillion but we still thinks we will surpass usa and become a largest economy..
I fear for India relative to AGW - in the near future, much of your country will be subjected to deadly wet bulb temperatures making it lethal to be out side (for over 24 hours - not for a few hours.) This will happen in a few decades at best. Frankly, this is THE issue that truly scares me and should be talked about NOW. I don't want this to occur to such a great country and culture.
@@dennisbrown5313 what if the next glaciation begins early due to any number of factors not predicted by climate modeling?
@@Metatropian What if the sun doesn't rise tomorrow morning? It's so terribly hard to predict the future, you never know what's going to happen. There may be any number of factors not predicted by sun-rise modeling.
@@LinasVepstas I think we can all agree that the climate models have proven to be much more accurate than the sun-rise models. Great comparison!
Well, now, that's about the most encouraging international news I've had in the last couple years.
And that includes the economic turndown (collapse?). Now, if we could only get this insane correct politics AND economic and gender insanity, we might survive.
#INSECURE...
@@buravan1512 Yup
China imports a large percentage of nearly all commodities to keep its factories running. They use as much oil as the US but need to import 75 to 80% of it. USA imports only about 25% of its oil and most comes from Canada and Mexico. To beat China in a war the adversary only needs to sink the commodity ships going to China, then their economy stops, along with their ability to wage war. That's why the US has over 140 submarines and is building the fleet out to nearly 200 subs.
I may be all wet here, but doesn't (or couldn't) China get plenty of fuel overland or by truck, train, or pipeline, from Russia?
by the 2050s overland pipelines and chinese efforts to build renewables will make that more or less a non-issue. the US has less than 30 years to start WW3 or it will just lose.
@@waterfcalllane Russia may think twice about fueling the biggest military threat it faces as a neighbor. when China rolls in with a million or more well armed soldiers and confiscates the ol wells with Russian fuel driving the Chinese military vehicles that thought could keep a Russian leader here and there up at night. Pray for the USA we are now our worst enemy because the dem party is our communist neighbor, the enemy within.
So let me get this straight: a country and civilisation that has lasted close to 5000 years is going to have trouble lasting another 10?
If you think China's covid over reaction is bad let's see how it reacts to being a nursing home in 25 years. See the Unprecedented Aging Crisis that's about to hit China by PBS on KZhead.
Only if you are a neo con or neo liberal and believe on the supremacy of western civilization withstanding crisis better than the east
China has failed many times. Dont confuse China, with Chinese Empires.
Yes. China is made up of different groups of people and they speak different languages. The soil is not fertile. It is hard to grow crops in China. A conqueror named Chin united them under the Chin dynasty. The new country was called China. It existed as different groups of people, speaking different languages. Mandarin was made China' s official language. China has a lot of debt. Half of the women who should exist are gone, killed as babies. They don't have enough people to keep making goods to export to other countries. They don't have a strong navy. Many of its people are going to starve to death. Right now, Sept. 3, 2022, they don't have electricity, according to a podcaster who had his Chinese language lessons cancelled. He told his teacher, just use your cell phone. The teacher said, "you don't understand. There is no electricity , anywhere. I am looking out of the window and everything is dark". I agree with Peter. China will naturally go back to a collection of city-states. I doubt China will get the help they need fast enough, because too many countries have a labor shortage and they will be focused on their own problems.
The trouble just come to you, Scott Webb your mind got mental disability.
With the current threat of nuclear annihilation, I'm surprised this fellow is only singling out one country. Everything is connected.
the best is to get more viewers if talking anything about China LOL
I've read several of his books over the past decade, and somehow he's been right in the majority of his projections.
Name one.
Which books?
So me being able to name a book seems significant to you? I read his first three. You can look up the names if you really want to. The main things he seemed to predict pretty accurately were the 1) breakup of the post-war consensus in which the United States promised to defend much of the world in exchange for global free markets and 2) economic instability and conflict caused primarily by demographic decline, i.e., aging, in many regions of the world.
he's been dead wrong on china though.
As a humble guess, I think China will certainly last longer than this decade, which is just < 8 years from this point. Let's revisit this later as to who is making a better prediction.
None of this will matter, I'm sure Saint Greta promised us we would all burn up in 7. (In ten years three years ago)
@@KillerBill1953 Agreed. This may be sooner if someone inadvertently pressed the nuclear strike button!
The scenario could change in the next 5-10 years. Europe is in the process of becoming less dependent on Russian oil and gas. So Russia will be forced to look for new customers and this is where China comes in. There are still hardly any pipelines to China, but that could change quickly. And with this secure energy supply over land, in the future you will no longer be so dependent on oil tankers.
Not so easy, oil from Siberia will collapse because the only people who can maintain the system have pulled out.
Russia has already found new customers. China, India and others. The Russian economy is doing great - even with the sanctions. Europe; however, has put itself in a deadly spot. They have no where else to get their oil/gas other than the US (and Middle East) and we charge them a ton.
There are pipelines already in place and its operating normally. Its not their habit to announce their plans or action. Only US does that irrational thing.
Building pipelines takes years, and there are mountain ranges and deserts actoss which they would have to run. And if Russia were to collapse it does not take a stretch of the imagination to see China invading its eastern territories. Due to US hostility to both at this point in time the Sino-Russian alliance is one of convenience, but you have to remember that China and Russia are also historical adversaries. Political winds blow both ways!
@@silentwatcher1455 That's right, there are two or three pipelines from Russia towards China. But they are not enough to transport the required amounts of gas and oil to China, so that Russia can compensate for the loss of the European market and China becomes independent of the supply routes across the sea. This means that new supply lines have to be built, and that will definitely take several years.
Peter Zeihan deserves the Gordon Chang Award for his efforts!😆
The difference is that he predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine down to the year a decade in advance and he relies on data not prognostication. He also predicted the current inflation years ago, so you might want to just check his data before you go all Chang on him. Just a thought
@@0s0n3gr0 many people made that prediction, even the dead clock is right twice a day.
Look what he sayed before ,then ....
He is more clumsy than Chang. This Peter has no brain at all - no !
@@0s0n3gr0 Every Russian predicted the invasion of Ukraine. Thats not an accomplishment. even the Ukrainians themsleves saw this coming. Currently inflation is also predictable if you been paying attention to how america prints money
I've been saying the same thing.
Shop at Wal-Mart. Notice that many of their goods have transitioned from Chinese to other eastern and mid-eastern nations. I bought a sweater from Wal-Mart last week. It was made in Jordan.
00:07 I don't know why nobody has commented on 19th Century cartoonist Thomas Nast's eerily accurate picture of America 100 years later! 😆
would love to see Peter Zeihan debating Martin Jacques!
That would be a slaughter. Peter could be folding laundry and win that debate. lol.
There are many CPC supporter that info, that China is already the Richest and Most Wealthiest Country in the World, as well the MOST POWERFUL Country in the World, all countries will kow-tow to China.
@@Fr.VeniceLAI Really? Nancy Pelosi took a dump in Taiwan and China wiped her butt without any ramifications? They don't seem that powerful to us mere mortals...just saying
@@Fr.VeniceLAI China imports 70% of food and energy. They have no Navy that can ensure delivery. A naval blockade in Indian Ocean will destroy China. What do you propose China can do in response?
@@Fr.VeniceLAI *There are many CPC supporter that info* That is CCP, not CPC. And that is false. *that China is already the Richest and Most Wealthiest Country in the World* That is false. *as well the MOST POWERFUL Country in the World* That is false. *all countries will kow-tow to China.* That is false. Well, thanks for playing!
spot on
Most important tho alWays move hands and arms When talking for more effect😂
I have heard this many times before, yet China is still standing.
I totally agree with you that China will stand. But the regime will change, it happens in Chinese history all the time.
The "Mandate of Heaven" is coming for Xi and the CCP.
I suspect the Chinese economy will adjust similarly to how the United States did moving from an industrial producer to a consumer industry with service, tech and financial sectors. The biggest challenge for them will be handling this transition without unemployment going over 10%. 10% of 2 billion is a lot of angry people, especially people who used to have jobs that permitted savings and wealth gain. Compared to how it is for the "lower" industries in the US where large sectors of employed workers are in stagnated wage gains that can't keep up with the rising costs of living. A cost that is fueled by the huge wealth gains many Americans can make in other sectors (think Walmart employee vs Developer both living in San Francisco). Still, it seems pretty obvious that they are looking to expand their export markets to Africa in hopes that they can keep the industrial sector going as well as possible and employ as many factory workers as possible. They have a lot of central control of their economy and the leaders are fairly serious about managing their countries growth and less preoccupied with Reality TV Show style politics like we have here in the US. I don't think it will be a smooth path, but I don't see the train derailing. *edit After looking at recent Chinese leadership and attitude, it looks like they are going to try to be more towards North Korean like isolation and posturing. This is not a good hallmark for successful economic gains.
Unlikely. China's rapidly-declining demographics preclude it from ever becoming an internal consumer-based economy. They aren't going to have much of an export market either, to Africa or anywhere else, due to lockdowns crushing their manufacturing capacity. Throw in their housing crisis and banking liquidity crisis, and by 2050, China will likely be back to farming rice paddies with a few hundred million people. And that's, as Peter Zeihan likes to say, "if nothing else goes wrong" (such as a major regional war or somebody preventing oil getting to China through the Strait of Malacca). China cannot exist as an industrialised nation without US shipping guarantees.
The US is far away from the world market, The Euro-Asian continent. Without WW1 and WW2, It could not be world factory. So losing industrial producer position to China is a normal thing as it is not competitive regarding the price. China is close to the world market and has complete supply chain, thus making everything the cheapest in the world.
@@andyw_uk74 Those are transitory issues and while they may cause bad years, they aren’t fundamentals.
@@andyw_uk74 “rapidly declining”, care to quantify that? OMG China will only have 1.3 billion by 2040!!!! How will they stay powerful?!?! Western brain is not very big. It enjoys simple conclusions.
Good luck transitioning to services and consuming when your population make 300$ on average, and your economy is based on being cheap labor hands for the rest of the world .it's like saying france could go from a service economy to an industry economy. I lived in china for the biggest part of my life and I cant tell you you dont understand how economy works here and the mindset . The train is already derailing hard.
Is anyone analyzing the effects tropical storms with extremely heavy rains have done to CCP's food supply and manufacturing production in 2023?
Oh geez!
I have been following everything in China for about 10 years and find this fellow to be in line with my findings. The demographic issue is very real and this fellow has researched it well and his books are very good . Good video!!!
he has being saying "China is done" for last 25 years.
“Your findings?” Are you another “expert “ or just another egoist full of his own opinions?
Everything in China? From CNN?
Well it is one thing to research it, but I have lived here in China for many years and the situation is very dire. Beyond the demographics, the economy is completely hollow, nearly 40% of the workforce is paid by the government and are completely unable to afford any home. The work culture is completely toxic.
@@johnm7267 Yes, only egotists have their own opinions...
This guy has the movement, delivery and facial expressions of a standup comic while trying to make broad and highly questionable claims about current and future conditions in China. I wouldn't bank on it, but he obviously believes what he believes and wants to entertain you as he worries you about that. I don't expect geopolitical commentary to be the same sober monotone delivery from every pundit, but this delivery undercuts the seriousness and credibility of the speech content.
I agree, he seems overconfident to me. These are very difficult things to predict and he seems to underestimate adaptation by individuals..
He's right. China won't be the leading superpower of the next decades.
Enthusiasm is a good thing. He's done his research, he has his numbers, and he's confident in his conclusion. It helps no one if he's a boring speaker that inhibits the communication of his own ideas.
Typical neo-con projection and deflection propaganda, and done in a gloating manner. The problem is how he glosses over domestic issues that affect Americans to a far greater extent
Ok you don’t like his delivery. But can you refute his main points and conclusion?
A whole lot of turmoil in China today incuding their president who is rummored under house arrest and a 50 mile PLA military convoy headed into Beijing. The real question with their housing and banking collapse along with a covid lockdown and large manufacturing slowdown I would ask if China has 10 weeks left under its current leadership.
"I would ask if China has 10 weeks left under its current leadership" ooh...wanna bet a case of Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon ? We will get back here by the end of this year to see if that happened. I would Fedex them to the address of your choice if you are right.
Very Very interesting. Great video. I hope you are right about China.
I wish the folk I deal with in China all the best, thank you for the dedication to delivering my purchase with diligence and steadfast dedication, wish I could say the same about my countrymen 👊 I wish you the best ahead in these turbulent time's
The people of China have the same aspirations as most people in the world but the CCP is no better than hitler or stalin or putin. we are waiting for these tyrants to fall
what turbulent times do you have planned for China Arran? There are no problems on the horizon for China except a wave of Covid Omicron that they can readily manage with widely available and effective vaccines as they unwind zero-covid.
Traitor. Greedy and selfish. How pathetic.
Lots of Europeans are appreciative of their China-made Teslas. Such will help stabilize their economy & encourage resistance to demagogues like Xi. 😅
They’ve been saying the same thing for the last 50 years😂
Up until the mid 1980s the talk was about Japanese power, then China took the baton from Japan. 💰
Yeap China boycotted Australian coal then later came back wanting to buy and got told NO so they get Australian coal via third parties which cost them alot more.
A big call. People get annoyed at not accessing the internet.
A very long time ago, I watch something that said Japan was going to be the next economical super power. Things have limiting factors that most ignore. China hit most of these at least 5 years ago and has been failing badly to either hide or ignore them.
If it hit these 5 years ago why did we still see such explosive growth? And Japan is a very strong economic power still. China still has lots of growth potential GDP per capita wise where as Japan hit the upper limit of it and had no room to grow. China's GDP PPP is already bigger than ours (US) and up until Q2 of this year was actually catching up at an accelerated rate. Yes China is going to have issues but to not call them an economic super power is kinda stupid.
@@Gongolongo The problem with China's PPP based GDP numbers is two fold. Number one, a good chunk of it is probably exaggerated/fake. No one can audit China's economic numbers, world organizations just cite China's official government statistics and take them at their word, when they should be adding an asterisk and saying these are unverified numbers. You don't believe China had only 5 covid cases in late 2020...so why would you believe their GDP numbers. Number two, PPP is essentially pricing things in the local currency, while nominal GDP is priced in USD. When China conducts international trade, nominal GDP is more relevant, because most international trade is done in USD. As far as the worlds economy is concerned, Chinas GDP is not 30 trillion USD but actually 19 trillion USD, the nominal figure. (And see above why its probably much lower than even that.) Given all the factors above, I'd say its likely China's economy priced in USD is probably around 12-15 trillion USD. Does this make them an economic superpower? I would say no...being an economic superpower is about more than just having a big economy, its about being able to have a degree of control over the worlds economy. China exports cheap things people want, but nothing anyone actually needs. You can get by without cheap toys and appliances, just buy them elsewhere even if a bit pricier. The US exports things countries need, like food (the US is the worlds leading exporter of food, China is the worlds leading importer of food), and Aircraft, the US is the worlds leading producer of aircraft. Not to mention unlike China, the US has a large degree of control over the worlds financial sector. The US is a economic superpower, China is just a large economy built on shaky foundations.
@@Gongolongo lolol imagine beliving chinas gdp numbers are real when they lie about literally everything
@Meme Memeson This is why Japan allied with the US. Together they will strangle China. Also Japans 4.9 trillion dollar economy is much, much closer to China's size than Lichtenstein is to Germany.
@Meme Memeson LOL LOL LOL. Is that how you're coping?
He, he, he.. Americans should travel more. Not just to see what’s really happening in the world but to see what the other 95% of human beings think of them and their politics. This guy misses the mark on almost every subject I’ve seen him speak about…. Bitcoin.. the Economy.. and now China.
I can tell how they feel about us, based on the amount of people trying to get in the country!
@@prosay Yep.. un-travelled people in my Country think the whole world is trying to flood in here as well. Just not true.
We know our politics are chaotic and our general reputation on the world stage is shit but in general we are in a pretty solid position all things considered so the world just has to deal with us.
jasper. the kind of foreigners you're talking about will tell an american something about america as if they're an authority and it's like what they think is insane. so it doesn't really matter what they think... when you come right down to it, if 95% percent of the world has a problem with america, it's just hating the boss.
@@peterdisabella2156 I think the "hate" is predominantly a media clickbait thing. Most people worldwide just go about their day to day like Americans do and have nearly the same complaints as they do to varying degrees. Sure, foreign policy and speeches about exceptionalism and other things get poked at but when you are number 1 it is expected to be in the spotlight a lot. The only time everyone gets a bit serious is when the Dollar dips and M.I.C is involved but aside from that we consume a lot of your stuff from entertainment to services to science and expertise and share at least some common values.
The hardest thing to fore-tell is the future. Either if he's right or not, he challenges notions and popular views, giving food for thought.
There are 3 guys in KZhead who made predictions about the future economy of the giants. Peter Zeihan about China, Joe Blogs about Russia and Professor Richard Wolf about US. Of the 3, I think Richard is the only one with credibility. In 5 to 10 years' time, we will see who leads the world.