Peter Zeihan Presents Disunited Nations: The Trade Breakdown | Upfront Summit 2020
2020 ж. 2 Нау.
723 609 Рет қаралды
Geopolitical strategist and author Peter Zeihan explains how we got to the current state of geopolitics and the changing demographics across the global superpowers that will impact our coming economy.
*Please note: the background noise in this video is due to high winds outside the theater tent at the Rose Bowl Stadium, where this presentation was filmed. It was loud but harmless!
Love this style of lecturing…..mixing facts with sarcasm and humour….addicted to Peters style.
it's a Gen X ers way.
@@Mr.chickensoupwe are the best
@@schnarfschnarf5886nah zoomers
Good talk. Would have been even better if a basketball game wasn’t going on in the background
Best opening ever. Saying what he wasn’t going to do was actually doing what his professor told him to do and that’s pretty hilarious
And he got exactly zero laughter from it.
@@wutangisforever2798 yes, interesting topics, but this guy is wayyy unfunnier than he thinks..
Still funny after all these years.
@@Billytheshit True but he's so unfunny that it became funny
@@Billytheshitthat's not the right crowd for one but his delivery isn't the best, he nervous when he tries to crack a joke most times
If your longtime Zaihan fans just so you know there is nothing new here.
never is; we like the familiarity
Murica is demanding the city of London. That was my first time hearing that. 31:45
yes same BS.
If my long-time Zeihan fan does what?
I disagree. Read it again.
2 years before the Ukraine was Peter called it. I need to listen to this guy more
So did most of eastern europe
Many seem to complain 'there is nothing new here...' I urge you to rewatch his earlier speeches. He, like any good analyst, takes his initial briefing and updates it as events unfold. There is a lot of similarity to earlier speeches, but it is updated. I look forward to the next update!
Well if you listen to him in the early 2000s he predicted the fall of China in 5-10 years
I am remindec of of H L Mencken's quote: "There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong."
love that troop of tap dancers on the roof that breaks in every few seconds.
I don't care how many times I've heard Peter's same old jokes. They're still great.
He not that good . He is appeaser like joe Biden he thinks Putin will use . So he thinks Putin wants to kill himself
The audience thinks differently haha
Everything was great except the jokes
I liked the jokes as well. This crowd was brutal
The "jokes" were the worst part. Great talk besides him bombing on the jokes though.
He didn't get any laughs because he's in California. When you call the last 3 presidents Morons he deflated their knowledge of reality
Also he not that funny.
Let's get something straight....we don't have a government..... what we have is an enemy force and occupation masquerading as our government
I was enjoying the part where the last 3 president were morons & they still are too!
@Lauren B if your replying to me 5 international, 100's in US all medical
@Lauren B I come across people like you, a simpleton that can't relate to reality and your proof. Grow up and live prosperous 😘
NGL was hoping the new book came with a new lecture.
instablaster
Are people like clapping mud off of their shoes in the background or something?
Clog dancing?
If you look at the notes under the post, you'll see noise is due to high winds
He is always fascinating; I'm not sure if he's right, but I'm sure I'll listen.
There is a lot of insight in this keynote, looking back a few years later
At the 18: 00 mark he talks about US dollar devaluation around late 80's. That was actually the impetus for the crash of 87. Japanese etc heard Americans wanted 40% currency devaluation ; so they pulled out of US Stock markets to avoid the hit.
yeah, and the result is the Japanese have been in permanent RECESSION since 1990 with a population demographic that is shrinking. hence Japan will have half of the population it has now in 30 years with a 6 to 1 ratio of retirees to young employed citizens PAYING for the elderly
Well I got to sleep sometime tonight. *Sees Peter Zeihan video* well it’s not like I haven’t put up with a all nighter before.
I like Peter Zeihan's talks. He's like one part Historian, one part economist, and one part comedian. Even though I don't really care for the Millennial jokes....
Geo strategy requires you to understand all
I didn't care for him constantly ripping on Trump while praising sociopaths as the smartest people in the room, either, but sometimes, you understand that the comedian's job is to offend everyone equally.
He's just a woke gen xer
Pre-Ordered that audio book real fast.
Thank you so much for your talk it was great
Great lecture
Peter is amazing. He has completely changed my world view
You're an idiot. Trump noes more about the 🌎 than this 🤪 guy. If he was so smart, where is his hotel 🏨 with his name on it. 😆
He is a propagandist. Check out his view on Ukraine , it is obvious nonsense which to me shows everything he says is tainted by agenda.
I’ve been ferociously consuming Peter, zeiHans material lately particular his weekly updates. But it’s cool to look back at some material he did a few years ago. The message is polished, but he’s definitely been even more polished over the last three years. It’s also interesting to hear his objective takes on the presidents with regard to foreign policy not get bundled up on whether Biden had incontinence. Trump did a mean tweet blah blah like the press gets so wound up about.
Fast forward to 2022 and everything he said makes perfect sense
Zeihanbois represent
This is what a history teacher should be.
Idk why he’s so popular all of the sudden. Peter has made many wrong predictions & still sounds so confident. I don’t understand him
@@JONCOOK61420 I understand! Fascism! Trump lover! Racist scum
Peter Zeihan needs to run for President and win! We desperately need this man in charge! He will provide guidance for our country to follow for decades!!!
Bugger off! We need him in disunited kingdom more!!
Awesome Knowledge. THANK YOU MUCH.
20: 20 I laughed at the 'All in one guy' so much, I had to stop cooking to come like this video.
Worst fringe joke ever. He practically insulted everyone on the political spectrum with broad one note labels. That joke would probably do well with people that dislike governance, are anarchists or similar. The type of people I very much doubt was in the audience or he intended it to be for...
@@Lobos222 his jokes fell flat every time....
EXCELLENT!
Great work Peter 🙏🙏🙏
I love listening to this guy talk
Good job Peter!! Informative as always
Peter really nails it in his talks. His lectures are the most interesting to me. Hes a great speaker!!!!
I wished more teachers were like that, it's just so interesting
I know a lot of people are snarky online but I’m genuinely asking; Nails what exactly? Are you new to Peter?
@@Tenchi707 he’s excellent at presenting with confidence & a great speaker overall
@@JONCOOK61420 peter presents accurate data professionally from a combination of demographic, input, and commodity models. No im not new to peter. Its ok to be snarky sometimes:)
I wonder if he ever gets tired of telling the same story in every presentation...
I was thinking the same lol but he sometimes sprinkles in new stuff. The interviews and any q and a sessions are always the most informative.
@@edgeldine3499 do you have some new interviews
I always think that too, then I talk about some of the stuff he talks about with friends and such, and i realize no one knows this stuff.
that is why he switches ties, to mix things up :P
I never get tired of cashing a paycheck no matter how many times I build up the same set of valves for a customer.
1000 points of light~castle of mother of darkness.Good point!
great talk love the whole economics of it, i am very pro trade
So you (the US) are exceptional! So exceptional that you will leave your friends to dry, even when they are in an existential pinch. You will never place loyalty over interests, and no matter how good a friend someone is to you, you will still ask for the highest price. You have complete autonomy and self-reliance in military security, energy security, and perfect geographical circumstances. God forbid you ever need someone else's help with something and they treat you like you treat everyone else. There is a saying in my country: "What a smart person is ashamed of, a fool brags about!"
This is geo-politics and trade. There are no friends and loyalty for loyalty sake is a meme.
Nations have no friends, only interests. Even if they put on a smile.
A king has no friends, only followers or foe
You sound bitter. Where was your nation when the Americans were building up to be a global juggernaut? And doing all of that while projecting an image of valuing human rights and democracy. Quit crying
There is nothing the US or anybody can do for these countries. Many of these countries have had decades to get their house in order but failed to do so. It is nothing to do with high and dry there is no saving many of these countries. Everyone of them will not have a population to function so how is the US to help with that?
Well stated
Peter Asks: Do the Koreans know the US will honor security commitments? Of course. Because to bail on any one commitment, puts all other commitments in doubt, and destroys the alliance.
Speaking about Economics is a lot like preaching about religion. There are only so many themes to work with. What Ziehan does is layer detail on top of his regular stump speeches. If you listen to him long enough you get a richly nuanced tapestry of the current world!
Speaking as a Brit, this explains why the Japanese and British were so eager to sign a trade deal with each other. I'm pro-Brexit for non-economic reasons, and i've got a personal fondness for Japan. However, realistically, i appreciate that both the UK and Japan are both presently up shit creek without a paddle. They need all the trade deals they can get.
Weird way to say you have rice fever.
I love sticky white rice. I have rice fever as well
@@justinrieper8883 White rice gives you cancer
The UK has still not got its finger out and done something and is still prancing around the edges.
Long story short, everyone has enjoyed prosperity the last 70 years thanks to the United States especially China, Canada and Mexico
AND THEY surreptitiously used a LOT of it to stalk and subvert AMERICA ALL THE WHILE ! They not only have mismanaged billions, they DID SO AS ENEMIES TO ALL WE STAND FOR, USING THE BENEVOLENT NATURE OF OUR PROGRAMS only to the missions of GLOBALIST TAKEOVER ! The present "MEDICAL MANDATES" is the worst, BUT LAST, NWO FRAUD 4 Control !
@odegaard They are mobile military bases. Not just airfields. They, are the reason china hasnt moved militarly on several targets. Im NOT into policing the world, but we DO have enemies.
@@Withnail1969 What's your country?
@@LosizakIIThe UK.
@@Withnail1969 if it wasn’t for the United States the Brits would speaking German. You had better pray that we don’t remove our military installations from your country because you cannot stand alone. You proved that in WWII.
you can use the norther sea route for trading u got on one side russia and on other side canada,us,greenland sounds pretty safe to me not to mention much shorter, need to w8 a lil tho when the ice melts more
Obviously, he doesn't like Trump. But the portrait he painted of Trump was that he is BRILLIANT.
I’m a French Canadian-American and he’s right about Canada’s crappy demography, and Mexico having become a true partner! We’re headed for a demographic problem here in the USA too.
T'es parti du Québec pour les états?
I think his point was we’re one of the only countries that won’t have that problem. Granted that you trust the generations coming up to get their shit together.
@@mikestefan7386 they will
@@mikestefan7386 -- That is a huge concern.
@mikestefan7386 it's an axiomatic generational concern. Everything will be fine.
His talks seem to be the same but actually they evolve as he adds material
Like the lecture.
where can i find the debate with Freeland that he supposedly won? 22:06
Who did the f-ing sound in that building?
Liberal retarded morons....Obama's youth movement
@@lingli314 "Liberal retarded morons....Obama's youth movement" Having sound engineered more than once in very large halls, had it been Obama's Liberals operating the sound, I'm sure it would have been much nicer...but those are the cards were dealt.
@David Rogers @Ling li "Liberal retarded morons....Obama's youth movement" Do tell; are you with Obama's Youth Movement? Or was I correct in my analysis?
David Rogers ...Popstar Barbie Microphones??
@David Rogers"Do tell" are you that gay tim Chisholm. You mean amongst all the straight Tim Chisholm's? Are you the gay david Rogers?
- No International trade before 1945? - Pax Brittanica? - Climate Change? - AI and automation?
He talks about climate change and automation in another version of this talk, a good recent one is his VM Sustainability forum talk. Also everything he said about international trade is said in college classrooms, it was non existent in the 1800s and was in its infancy during the interwar period. Colonialism trade triangle and imperialist supply chains were never international.
@@amatthew1231 It did exist, and it grew as economies and supply chains became more sophisticated. It's not just because of a strong US navy. The idea trade didn't happen because everyone sank each others ships prior to 1945 is ridiculous. What about digital and financial services? These aren't physical and make up a huge percentage of developed economies exports.
Silk Road, too, or the Spanish and Portuguese opening of sea lanes to Asia. Shit, even evidence of widespread trade btw nations in the bronze age. Obviously wars were fought, but trade has grown and prospered, apace with the ability of the civilization to do so.
@@nvonliph He is preaching to americans for americans that's his market ,give the punters what they want right. GODDAMN RIGHT KICK SOME ASS USA.USA USA USA MAGA !!!!!!!!
@@ltaylor9704 The detail that you are missing is that Western empires of the last 500 years only protected THEIR OWN territories and trade routes. That's the very logic of imperialism and colonialism: you gain new territories in competition with native powers and other imperial/colonial powers in order to secure your own economic interests. That's why, for example, the Dutch colonized Indonesia: at first to secure supply and price control over spices and which then evolved to include palm oil, petroleum, rubber and timber. The colonies supply raw materials, the mother country supplies law and order, industrial products and modern infrastructure. A truly global and international multilateral trade didn't exist until post-WW2.
Been saying for a while now... take the elderly and those with underlying issues and protect THEM. The rest of the healthy workforce should still wash their hands and be responsible, but be out at work.
The two things I give Obama credit for are these: (1) Bin Laden eliminated on his watch (2) stayed out of Syria Other than that, he was just a seat warmer.
He also helped make the US energy independent.
@@aperture413 ""Just say thank you, please,” Mr. Obama said."
@@kudjo24 i dont get it, obama didnt send conventional military in, its that simple.
@@aperture413 by making things so bad that the US voted in Trump?
@@banjax80 "so bad", I'd be curious to see what you think Obama did that was so bad that isn't just the run of the mill neoliberal ethos for the past 30 years.
When he talks about the USA bread basket with two systems of rain... does he know that the irrigation is being pumped from aquifers that we’re left from the glaciers. Not from annual rainfall? Any one please help me out with this one, I don’t see him take questions.
I am from a farming community. We probably get 60-70% of our crops from irrigation... But we wouldn't starve if the wells dried up. There are a lot of "dryland" farmers who make their living off rainfall fed land only.
Very first time, I've heard this guy, very first time... I've never heard this guy's name, this guy is my age range, sad part is no crowd manners, nothing positive too take away from this except when, they clap when he walks off stage, God Almighty bless and have a good day today....
Very interesting.
The audio is just sad, luckily most of the presentation has not changed (only exception i noticed was mention of signing a deal with Mexico)
This made the lock down effect in NZ vanish. Kids loved it. Great talk. God bless.
Hi from NZ. Sir you do all a great service with the demographic angle. Nice!
Does anyone know what that noise was?
Great presentation, but it was a bit difficult to concentrate on what he was saying during the 2nd half with whatever that noise was.
Now that globalism has failed (thank God) can we please get to the really big fire so that we can be happy again
If we're still alive
So for all the snide remarks about President Trump, it seems like he's doing a great job in trade negotiations. Especially if you're an American and not a globalist. Now add in the Covid 19 factor and I'm curious how your thesis will add up. BTW I actually enjoyed your speech especially your connection between pre Cold War economics and post Cold War economics. As a retired naval officer, I watched the shift in world threats over my career from the 1996 until 2015.
Sorry 1986 to 2015.
Who needs college when you can gain this amount of knowledge in 30 minutes.
Great
He did not have India on his graph, and as for millennials , he was making his comments predicated on them having employment. You can have a need for consumption, but if you do not have jobs you have no currency to consume
“The United States bribed up “ Interesting rhetoric . Let’s you know where this conversation is going ! I shall watch a few of his lectures and see if my suspicions are correct
so, verdict?
Incendere Moonlite yeah let us in on ur thoughts
Peter is my new guy🎉🧠🧐
This was a great talk... was someone setting off fireworks the whole time, though?
"we have the Town class" 👍👍👌
Yeah even though that was a funny story how he told the story but it was still a dirty joke to play on the Brits. I believe Naval historians consider the Town class the worst destroyers ever built by anybody.
@@guyvalentine7258 yes, we haven’t forgotten
China's one child policy 30 years later: "Because that is how math works!"
When Zeihan got to his descriptions of Freeland, Trudeau, and the Trump-relationship and I realized how off he was, then I started to question the rest of what I’d already heard…
Off about what?
Ikr. Wondered if anyone else noticed that🧐
What's the background noise?! Fireworks?
I wonder what COVID-19 will do to elderly populations and these projections. It is early days, but italy had a surge of sick, with a 6 to 8% death rate, and almost all elderly people
It's possible that things like wars and diseases can alter the age structures of nations in ways we can't foresee. Just like how the baby boom didn't go on indefinitely, the baby bust won't either.
So what's going on
Sounds like he doesn't know the real George HW Bush very well.
He absolutely doesn't know!!!
Yeah I was thinking that too as my blood pressure was rising!
What do you guys mean? Genuinely curious.
@@hydernoori146 George HW Bush has a very dark side. One thing that's quite stunning: He stated that he could not remember where he was when JFK was murdered (by a cabal of which, in my opinion, he was likely a part). Photos show where he was (Dallas, Texas) and with whom (his son). Another thing that is striking is the relationship between the Bush Family and the Bin Laden Family. Very close is so many ways. A third thing is his involvement in the Iran/Contra scandal. This HW guy had power, he used whatever he could to advance himself and his family. Today, even leading Republicans, such as Chris Chistie and Rand Paul, agree that the war on drugs, ramped up by Bush during his four years in the White House, has been a dismal and racist failure. HW was ruthless. Most US Americans (lazy to think or learn) remember this man as a classy guy, likeable, a real family man.
@@wmc9722 Thank you so much for explaining this to me.
WTF is that background noise? Is this speech taking place at a racketball court??
Why am I finding this dude 2 years after? Forget it I can figure it out
Town? The Brits had a Town Class. This guy is so from Iowa!
They were Caldwell, Wickes, and Clemson class destroyers in US service. The British treated the transferred ships as a single class and renamed them for UK or commonwealth towns. Those transferred Caldwell, Wickes, and Clemson class destroyers were old, but not at all bad. The US Navy used its retained Caldwell, Wickes, and Clemson class ships extensively during WWII, some as destroyers, others converted to light mine-layers (DM), Destroyer minesweepers (DMS), high speed transports (APD), seaplane tenders (AVD), etcetera. The Royal Navy also had a group of Light Cruisers which they called the Town Class. One Royal Navy town class cruiser, HMS Belfast, is still extant
What was that popping sound I kept hearing? Was someone lighting fireworks?
It's probably just a faulty microphone, its cable or connector. Technical issues happen.
Yeah, sounds like a technical error. I've gotten the same thing trying to record stuff.
There's a lot of wind, I noticed the white screens were moving considerably in the background. There must be an open window or door somewhere letting in a lot of wind.
It´s wind outside the tent. It says in the description.
Wow this presentation is 2 years old
Many big & small variables, & small unknowns in geopolitics. Our only hope in predicting the future is in at least identifying the major influences, which is what Peter Zeihan does very well. When a small unknown thing suddenly makes it's way on to the stage without warning (i.e., Covid-19), it at least temporarily changes things. When predicting the weather, macro atmospheric events, possible to see & track, allow pretty good but not perfect predictions, as an analogy. It's the Butterfly Effect you have to watch out for, yet usually cannot.
Things like the pandemic just speed things up and bring policy to bear much quicker.
@P A The Pandemic just speeds that process up.
I think the population decrease is a unconscious human condition resulting from over population. This will be interesting. A move towards automation.
Time to rethink your equations about population and labor. In 1960 the first robotic welder was introduced into an auto plant. Soon, the only people working in the factories, farming, fishing or the operating room will be those either taking care of robots or working the robots. This redefines labor, population charts and the human experience which up to now was defined by the classification of one’s career. As we enter this Brave New World we will have to rethink “old way” vs “new way”. It will make the 60’s cultural revolution seem quaint, nostalgic and simple. It will also break every “rule of thumb” analogy that Peter uses for future-casting. Still, I find Peter bright and do enjoy his shows.
Great lecture, other than basketball game off to the side
He skipped talking about Green tech? In California?
He adjusts the presentation to the crowd. What's this group all about? I have no idea. But judging by the title of the video I'm guessing he was invited to talk about trade.
Actually, they were called the Town class by the British. The US named them the 1000 toners, the flush deckers, or the four stackers.
Put together a new presentation already
"Town class". No such ships in the USN. That is what the Brits called the 50 Clemson-Wickes that Roosevelt gave them. They were faster, more seaworthy, had greater range and better torpedo armament than ANY contemporary DDs. They also were the ONLY DDs of the time with a gun fire control system. On the down side, they did have a very poor turning circle, and the newest British DDs had a more powerful and better arranged gun battery, but outside of that, they were pretty good. They were built late because congress would only fund BBs, the Wickes just barely made it to the war, the longer ranged Clemsons arrived en-mass in 1919. Not their fault the Germans gave up the ghost earlier than expected.
This guy is what’s wrong with academia today. They never will get it.
Just enjoying the things he said in the past that's coming true like how the next financial collapse wont be fiscally related
they always are though sometimes they are disguised as other things.
Ok forgive my ignorance but towards the end at the G7 meeting in France, he says look who's at the back of the room. Who is that?
bob lighthizer
@netflix give this guy his special
Am I the only one to notice that “W” Bush’s portrait looks a bit too much like Mad Magazine’s. Alfred E. Newman. 😆😆😆
16:20 You forgot India vs Pakisthan/China
Yep...audio was atrocious....message somewhat repetitive...but he does it with GUSTO and Knowledge....I just found this channel due to this video...wondering where the channel is going...maybe I will be back.
For some reason, this harkened back to H. Ross Perot & his admonition about that "giant sucking sound" we would be hearing.
Fear of the USA leaving the order we set up is the reason this year has gone Nuts.
Peter, you can't just rehash the same material for every standup special. At some point you'll need to write some new jokes.
Ah, you're just a Chinese who doesn't like what he has to say about your sick country.
@@junkscience6397 Incorrect. I'm a fan of Peter's. I've got all his books.
@odegaard This is an interesting one. The oil fields will still be there. Average cost price of $42 pb and viable at, say, $60 pb. The virus situation will abate. In geopolitical time frames, it is but a blip on over the horizon. Short to medium dislocation will pose transitory problems. Firms like Exxon will survive but may other juniors and mid-tiers will collapse. All those engineers will find jobs elsewhere such that, once the sector recovers, there will be a talent drain. It's a setback in terms of lost time and opportunity cost but nothing too substantial as to change the energy security calculus if US shale is truly a self sustainable industry (with a little help in the way of subsidies from Uncle Sam). Personally, my conviction theme is that crude oil, will be an increasingly sought after commodity in the long run. It has a replacement time frame measured in geological eons.
odegaard bro they’re gonna get bailed out
@@joannaliu4977 What about the demand side of things? Per his view it doesn't sound like demand will move higher in any way as it has in the past as far as I hear him.
This is not about super powers, there is a power above that, it plays us all off of each other, they win no matter the outcome, the are names we do not know, faces we have not seen... This is an elaborate 5th grade presentation designed to make you feel informed. You are fools to believe it. It is the show, the spectacle, the drama, that is created and controlled by a few.
man, what he has said about Freeland.... oh boy! not the description of her I would have used.
Absolutely! He is wayyy out to lunch on that witch.
The problem with megalomaniacs is their extremely narrow point of view and conclusions unrelated to presented data. It's interesting anyway.
I also got that vibe from the speaker