Today’s guest is geopolitical strategist and New York Times bestselling author Peter Zeihan.
Peter’s work focuses on global politics, demographics, and geography to better understand economic, cultural, political, and military developments to predict future trends. His firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, provides custom analytical products to an array of clients including energy companies, financial institutions, agricultural interests, intelligence agencies, and the U.S. military.
Join Jack and Peter as they explore Iran’s historical and geographical influences on culture, along with the greater Iranian threat via proxy groups including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
They also discuss China’s birth rate crisis and the potential motives for a Taiwan invasion, portraying a bleak vision of the future as a desperate attempt to save a dying empire.
Peter is the New York Times bestselling author of, The Accidental Superpower, The Absent Superpower, Disunited Nations, and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning.
To learn more about Peter, subscribe to his KZhead Channel - Zeihan on Geopolitics, follow him on Instagram @zeihanongeopolitics and visit his website, zeihan.com.
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Jack Carr and Peter Zeihan, always a great interview to listen to!
Ya theyre both solid af. Zeihan knows his shit and Carr legitimately is there to learn. Great talks between them.
Peter 💩 the bed with his Iran history and analysis, just like he does with China, Russia and the rest! He’s like he took Econ 101 and to average American he sounds like an economist!! To people who can’t point Iran or Iraq on the map, Peter knows his 💩 , but for people who actually are from the region and know it intimately, he sounds like fraud and grifters which he is!
Outstanding shakedown. I'm very familiar with Peter's work and still learned a ton of new info on this. Great questions make for great answers. Well done Jack!
I agree. I have read all four of Peter's books. I have watched many of Peter's presentations. Every time I watch a Peter Zeihan video, I learn some more.
Just on its face the assertion that Iran is the most backward and weak as it has been in the past 5000 years is ridiculous. Iran actually has a decent industrial complex, mostly low and mid level, and good weapons manufacturing. The 1940's Persia was way weaker and more backward.
Z is See Eye A
Have you by chance heard Zeihan's explanation for the 73' Oil Crisis? He says that after 73 we got most of our oil from Mexico, so why was there such a crisis?
This is the lowest level of fear mongering bullshit available on youtube these days, congratulations, you've beaten Russel Brand !
Jack has always been one of Zeihan's best interviewers. Gets him to elaborate on things I never hear elsewhere.
😊
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Agree, he doesn't interrupt but keeps the interaction going.
Maybe he can teach Peter how to pronounce Xi.
This is absolute gold. Peter was on fire, even more than usual. And he was asked great questions 🙌
Peter lies about health mandates, Ukraine, and Russia. But the rest is entertaining.
@@0my Lmao cope Russian troll🤣
LMAO..... He believes in climate change and orange man bad.
He’s nearly wrong on everything! He butchers history as well as current situations! He might sound smart, but if you know the subject he’s talking about, he’s shallow analysis will infuriate you! If you read the Wikipedia page on a country like Iran and study three maps of Iran (ethnic, elevation and neighboring countries) and you’re a good BSer you’ll be able to say what he said! And he still butchered it!
At this rate, Jack, you gotta cast Peter as a "Geopolitical Expert" in Terminal List Season 2/True Believer
He'd be perfect. His whole schtick is a performance. He's a China expert that does not speak Chinese.
His core points of demography, geography and availability of capital can be analyzed by non-Chinese speakers. Just sayin.
Peter is really just selling what everyone wants to hear, too bad it’s fiction!
@kdaleboley My brother, he does not need to speak Mandarin or any Chinese regional dialect to understand a whole lot about the Chinese political system and economy. He makes observations and opinions.
You don't need a Chinese Speaker to know which way the wind blows.
I really enjoy listening to your talks with Mr Zeihan. The regional histories, political, financial, and warfareing are all fascinating. I am constantly blown away by the closeness of reality and the books. Scary. By the way, pre-ordered Red Sky Mourning on Audible. There is something about Ray Porter speaking gentle Reeces in my ear while working... thank you, Mr Carr!
You'd be interested in content from Stratfor (Peter used to work there) and George Friedman (specifically book Next 100 years). Kind of the precursor to current geopolitical thought
Follow him to be misled and misinformed!!
I love listening to Peter. Since I was a kid I’ve been a huge history nerd and hearing how that history influences modern geopolitics in an easy to digest way via his penchant for drawing straight lines between cause and effect suits me perfectly!
You should check out whatifaltist then. He ties history to larger modern phenomena.
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Peter Zeihan is kinda full of crap. At least he constantly makes predictions whithout actually knowing a ton about the topic.
@@Admiral-General_Aladeen it’s not his predictions which interest me, people from many fields make failed predictions, even Nobel Prize winners. Again, what matters to me is his rich understanding of history and the effects it has on geopolitics today.
He has a lot of very ... convincing ... answers to a lot of problems. Therefore you could say that he is a con-man ;-) You always have to check if there are other convincing explanations and projections of outcome.
Always enjoy Peter's commentary, don't always agree with him but find it useful.
Zeihan has some great data and makes some good points, however, something prevents him from either following them to their logical conclusions or at least from expressing those conclusions. The most recent being the Russia situation, which most free thinking people could see what the result would be without western boots on the ground and also why that would be even worse. Even their current economic situation was predictable once they kicked a country off SWIFT and with how the west has exported all our industries. Heck, we are two years in and we still can not get our munitions manufacturing even started.
Great interview w Zeihan. Thank you for posting.
Love you, Peter. Thank you Jack for sharing this interview and your deeply insightful questions. My next step is reading all of Peter's books.
Awesome, thanks for the video.
Amazing insights. Thank you so much.
Love the conversation and information Peter puts out for the rest of us. My brother and I (both vets) really enjoy reading your books Jack.
I just found this channel. What Jack Carr books would you recommend, order important?
@@hitchensghoststart at the beginning of his series and yes order is important. Easiest to go by publishing date. Another guy to check out is Clay Martin, has a couple fiction and a couple nonfiction that are also good. His Last Son of the War God is a great Rambo/The most dangerous game homage.
Heard Peter a dozen times and still love hearing it and the few updates with every new podcast. Still reading the first book. Hate to say it, but I'm using his analysis (and others) to plan some decisions.
I was getting in my truck to drive to work when this rotated up for play. I saw it was an hour and was going to skip it but by the time I got my ride started, I was hooked. Good content.
Always nice to see
Peter's analysis of Iran is brilliant.
Go listen to his analysis on Russia from April-Aug of 2022 i.e. 3-6 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. I listened to him back then. Yes, he gives some facts & figures which no one is talking about and which seem to be important detail others are missing. But, he exaggerates the consequences of those facts like he does at 17:35. So, his analysis of the future is little too off be it China or Russia or even Iran. And he analysis was little odd, he says rightly at the start that there is a "dominant group/race" controls other i.e. Arabs,Azeris,Balouchis and he misses Kurds(not a big issue). But oddly he doesn't identify/speak much abt the "dominant group", who are? "Aryans".
@@simple-eastner he is been more correct than other analysts his main problem is timing which he has admitted to be the case
Its all fallacy arguments and outright lies. Zeihan is always wrong about everything. He is just a paid liar.
He's a depp stater wrapped in a thin veneer of populism. Don't be tricked.
@@simple-eastnerThe China situation is potentially way more dire than even he predicts. He is not comfortable going to that edge. It’s hard to discuss the potential loss of hundreds of millions of people. The “West” is not used to this idea though Asia and Africa have seen similar catastrophe.
Peter's analysis of China over the years has steadily become true. I think some times he does exaggerate a bit, but he's generally on point.
He's giving a synopsis of geopolitical history in an hour on a podcast, there's going to be some broad strokes
@@sethhussey5804 yeah people will say "oh look theres a specific error here" and I am just like dude these are BROAD predictions. Wide paint brush. Not pinpoint accuracy. It's still interesting.
@@firefly9838 It's not just the broad strokes. It's the totally unjustified air of confident certainty with which he discusses things he can't possibly actually know. A lot of what he makes sound inevitable isn't. I agree it's still interesting, though. And he's probably right about a lot of things. Just don't put total faith in his crystal ball.
@davidbaker231 yall must not watch sports... the markets... politics... eveything!!! Is a guess when the future of complex systems is in question, and every pundit talks with certainty... no one wants to listen to well, hmm, its complicated... give me ur best shot!
To me he just says what a desperate west wants to hear and he is almost always wrong. Then when he pivots his predictions its with really bad information
Thank you both.
Great interview!
If you have seen Zeihan anywhere in the past year for more than ten minutes, you've likely heard more than half of this.
he is a master of saying the same thing a million different ways.
Until the majority can wrap their heads around geopolitics 103, it's worth repeating.
Yes. A little knowledge goes a long way. A lot of knowledge goes a long, long, long way. Too bad our government "leaders" don't know much of this stuff.
Not true. I’ve seen hundreds of hours of Peter’s videos and there is a wide range of variation. Maybe you should watch more?
He applies a fairly consistent means of analysis to a variety of countries and situations. Not quite the same thing. ;)
Jack Carr, Peter mentions that Kharg Island is an easy target and very important to Iran's oil infrastructure and exporting ability. Peter should mention that a US company, RMKBRJ (Root, ..., Johnson) built Kharg Island before Iran had its Islamic Revolution. Three (3) bonus points: 1. The Johnson in RMKBRJ is Lyndon Johnson, and 2. The Islamic Revolution has moved Iran back into the 16th century. 3. Since the US built Kharg Island (we have the blue-prints of the facility), the US knows exactly where to hit the facility to cause the most damage with the least explosives, least danger to us.
Informative! Thank you
Iran was once the most progressive modern society in the Middle East until the CIA started meddling, and we now reap the result.
Yea, don't worry all the best Iranian technology comes from west. Iran is not interested in getting into a direct war with United States. But they will try something before the elections.
I used to live on Khark island during the Iraq- Iran war and they attacked the oil facilities and endangered the lives many civilians who live on the island. My dad sent my me, my mom and brother to the mainland to keep us safe from Iraqi attacks. It’s so heartwarming to hear this grifter and the Neocons running the US want to attack Iran for their hegemonic purposes!! 🙄
@@willchristie2650nope! It was always conservative! The Shah’s modernization was top down in a bifurcated society and caused more problems than solving them!! The liberalization was faster than the society could absorb the changes. Today’s Iran after 45 years of heavy handed theocracy has become the most anti religious country in the world!
Awesome work, Jack. You give the best overview with PZ. Think I might try one of your books.
Great conversation! Thanks Jack. Semper Fi.
38:49 Am a huge fan of Peter Zeihan and so his brain fart warms my heart (he's human like the rest of us). Mr. Zeihan said "Hu Jintao" but probably meant to say Xi Jinping
Also, he used to say wind turbines are 1,000 meters tall when he really means 1,000 feet.
I’ve noticed him get names switched around a bit, and I give him a pass on account of all the information bouncing around his brain 😂
@@djones1770 Yes! You noticed that, ha ha! For instance, he once made a mildly funny jab at Mr Xi by comparing his ego to that of Nero and Caligula (not so historically accurate but the image of a sandaled madman going off the rails is funny enough). In a later speech, he confused Caligula with... Cicero! Ha ha, wtf!!
Yeah for a second I wondered if somehow this was an old interview that got reposted! Lol
@@expensivefreedom 😁
The one thing I've not heard Peter speak to in relation to China's dissolution, which concerns me, is what we are going to do about all of the loose nukes. We still don't know where all of the Soviet nukes are. Same concern goes for Pakistan.
china isn't going away. peter is full of it, he just says it confidently. dude's a dnc hack
Historically the USA had dealt with problems in a very different way from say the British government. Americans deal with today's problems today and tomorrow's problems tomorrow, whereas in the UK we think of the ramifications on each action and the ramifications of the ramifications, etc. I don't know why this is (perhaps religiosity?) and of course it is an exaggeration, but nonetheless it's broadly true. At the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union I can remember hearing talk about nuclear security too, but it worked out. Perhaps China's nukes will be used? Pakistan may sell theirs to India for food? Who knows, likely we'll deal with it. Or we won't and the world will be less safe for a while. NOTE that a nuke needs to be completely rebuilt every 25 or so years anyway after which it probably won't work anything like as designed. The same goes for missiles. A solid propellant ICBM designed to hit the other side of the planet simply won't 25 years later because the propellant degrades and deforms (the last two test firings of British Trident missiles failed, IMHO because of this 🤫). Unless very well maintained liquid fueled missiles will likely explode when fueled. I get the impression that most people think that nuclear weapons are like modern cars which work every time you turn the key, whereas no one worries what a bunch of terrorists would do if they got hold of a space rocket. Literally no one thinks that a terrorist could become an astronaut, yet they're afraid that the same terrorist could successfully use a nuclear missile to threaten the West. What I'm trying to say is don't worry about it too much Nick. We pay our militaries to do that. And take the American example of worrying about today's problems today and tomorrow's problems tomorrow. 😉 All the best. 👍
Great interview! Must see it and listen.
That was so good, thank you.
Fun fact: there was no “Byzantine Empire.” It was the Roman Empire.
The Germans liked the name and the specific weight it carried along, so they invented the term Byzantine for the remaining east Roman empire and kept the term Roman for their empire! The russians claimed it as well (that's why the titles Czar -Tsar for the king of Russia and Kaiser for the king of Germany). Both translate to Caesar!!!
You’re exactly right.
Well the territory with “roman“ civic the longest period of time was Greece. It could be said it was a culturally Greek empire and so was Byzantium
I described Peter Zeihan to my LT like this: "Even if he's 100% wrong about WHAT he says, which is impossible, he puts so many things together that shows HOW to analyze things."
His predictions are consistently wrong though, So his methods are an example of how not to analyze the data..
@@mikeborrelli193absolutely not. It’s staggering how directionally correct he usually is.
@@shanghaiffgg Peter couldn't have been more directionally wrong concerning the Russia Ukraine conflict and that's what got him views.. Prior to 2022 his view counts were consistently sub 15K on his content.
@@mikeborrelli193 wrong on both counts
@@shanghaiffgg Hey brainiac, you're aware you can log to his channel and click on oldest videos.. His pre Ukraine war videos are mostly below 15k veiws, he was a KZhead nobody.. And no serious geopolitical analyst takes that clown seriously..
Thank you!
Peter Zeihan ‘s books are as interesting as his podcast! I’ve read one of them , the man’s Genius!
The royal navy was not sunk, in fact in 1945 it was about 2/3 to 3/5 the size of the US Navy.
Yup but Peter loves to beat down on anything non american. Although i love hearing his analysis he neglects to say why the other former powers have a history of many millenia. We have pubs in the UK that have roots twice as old as the USA. The determining factors of world geo-politics going forward will be leadership. The same as the past. With Americas near future choice of those two clowns for president things can't look good 😂
He was being hyperbolic. Britain was bankrupt after the war though so he has a point.
@@VancouverInvestor Understandable, except for the fact that he never stops being hyperbolic lol, even though I do enjoy him.
Lol...very hyperbolic.but he's right more often then not. I think he's a public mouthpiece for the CIA to release some of its views to the public and shape opinion.
@@VancouverInvestorAnd now the U.S. is bankrupt 🤔
One of the finest minds on geopolitics today. I remember reading 'Accidental Superpower' 10 years ago (and thinking this guy was full of BS). Pretty much everything he said in that book has happened over the past 4 years
He's been saying China would fall in a decade since 2010.lol. He states obvious moves that could happen. I'm not aware of any of his big predictions coming true before they happened. Of course, we would near shore since covid. In my mind, he realized that the in fragments since covid and these are his best guesses.
@@user-uc7dc2dd4q IF you don't mind my asking, have you read his books? "Accidental superpower" (2014) did not say China will fall in a decade. "End of the world is just the beginning" (2019) I don't recollect him giving that timeline (but could be wrong)
@toothlessseer3153 he has said he doesn't see china lasting a decade... but in the past 2 years or so. He's certainly Said China will not last, and often pointed to the 2020s as the decade where things go unstable.
No he hasnt, quit making things up. I've read his book and have been following him for a long time. He only started saying that about China around 2019
His main claim to fame is predicting a Ukraine invasion to the year in 2014. He did this based on demographics. Russia is running out of soldiers to throw into a conflict.
I agree with Jack Carr's assessment of Peter Zeihan. Zeihan is not afraid (everybody ELSE is terrified!) to make very plausible predictions of war, conflict, economics, etc. whilst bringing receipts! Zeihan is a breath of fresh air in a stifling miasma of media misinformation.
i finally watched this podcast for the first time. I need a drink maybe two. I think that i will drink the whole bottle
Has anyone read "The Foundation Trilogy" by Isaac Asimov? Civilization falls, you have a "Dark Ages" epoch, and then a new, better civilization arises. The only real question is how long does the "Dark Age" last....
Every time I see Zeihans name somewhere I picture him saying bitcoin is going to 0 and it has no value. Having a strong oppinion on something you did not spend the time to understand is a sign of a huge ego. Historicly huge egos are mostly wrong about the world
Finally a normal comment
I wonder whether Zeihan ever reads the newest comments he would quickly realise the majority of commenters are onto him and his BS!
he does not care, he is just an engagement farmer @@whenuakitekid
Great interview (as usual). Peter is the best. Knowledgeable and professional. Pure fun listening to.
On Wisconsin! Thanks Pete for the shoutout!
Thanks Jack! I listen to Peter nearly every morning. I watch him give all the lectures and interviews I can find on the interwebs. When he is on your show, it is the only time (with the exception of the one Rogan appearance) he actually has a conversation with all the wonderful give and take. Like you mentioned, he has this unique but very easy to comprehend understanding of history and geopolitics. This interpretation of events makes so many things happening around the world click into place and make so much sense. Again, thank you! Also, I work at the "Big Bookstore" and cannot wait to sell your next novel to my customers! Good luck Mr. Carr! 🤘
Fantastic interview! Great info!
My favorite Economic Analyst. Peter always scares the absolute hell out of me, the most pleasant way possible.
He's not an economic analyst though 💀💀
Thanks for the input patrik@@paaaatrika
@@JAG-oz5vh "In 1995, he obtained a BS in political science at Northeast Missouri State University and in 1997 a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies at the University of Otago." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan If he has any advanced knowledge of economics he didn't prove it with a degree. Therefore calling him one is a stretch.. He's a self-described generalist in a field (geopolitics) that deals in generalisms. Just bear that in mind.
He also has been wrong on literally everything he has stated...hilariously biased and misses the boat on what is really happening entirely
He's a shill for the party / intel community destroying the US at the moment
This was a good one. Nicely done Jack
Geography determines History! Always great fun listening to Peter.
Great interview! I read the books written by both authors and find them enjoyable and insightful. Looking forward to Carr’s new book!
Great questions, loved this episode
Incredible i love when you have him on
Fascinating as always 🙃
Peter is just the best. Can't stop listening to his ideas. But I find the podcast host almost dozed off!! Thanks for another great Zeihan interview.
Polyhalite from Yorkshire to my knowledge should help eleviate the Pressure of potash from Russia/Ukraine going off line. Check out the Boulby Mine and the Woodsmith mine. There is a vid on the Woodsmith mine,The engineering behind it is insane!
Jack, the new library looks great, love the ladder!!
34:00 - great explanation for several minutes
Wonderful, you should have Peter on every Quarter year. Cheers
Fantastic interview with Peter. So looking forward to Red Sky Morning. I have been re-listening to the James Reece series in anticipation.
Jack, you are a patient and courteous interviewer. It's refreshing. I don't much about your background interests, but it might be a good idea to invite Art Berman on your pod cast. Probably the most informed, down to earth, leading expert on global oil extraction, refining, and the supply chain issues facing us. He has some sobering analytical projections where US oil stands, particularly the current state of the Permian basin. I enjoy Peter's global insight, but I think he could delve more deeply into the relationship between oil and the global economy and how the sobering predictions of our climate tipping points going back to the 1972 MIT climate research papers may impact human civilization in the not to distant future. Thanks!
Sorry. I meant to write that I don't (know) much about your background interests.
Awesome
I love the Peter Zeihan podcasts from the wild places of the earth.
Awsome❤
Peter is the best ❤❤❤❤ I learned so much from him and your interview ❤❤ thank you
Great information
U both killed it. Good shit bub.
Peter killed the facts alright!! 🤦🏻
THANK YOU FOR COVERAGE OF IRAN & our history!! So little info is out in the world about us for so many reasons. Americans need to know how crucial our involvement always has been in the world....
Except PZ is wrong about the timeline and how old Persian culture/civilization is. Nowhere close to 6400 years. Persian civ. begins with Cyrus circa 600 BC.
Currently reading The End of the World is Just the Beginning! excellent interview!
Anything with the zeihan is worth a listen
Except his take on the US, his TDS gets in the way of coherency there, and he carefully omits some glaring events/movements.
Fantastic interview. Thank you for the content. Keep it up fam.
Well, I think I just crapped my pants. Thanks
Respect for Ben Hodges. He presents himself knowledgeably and without arrogance. It's past time for the Administration to clearly state what our strategic objectives are. Giving in to nuclear blackmail leads to worse danger. That can't be our strategy.
I can totally see Jon Hamm playing this man in a movie! I’m beyond impressed with the substance of this interview. I’m still learning things every day! Thanks, Danger Close!!
I don't get why there'd be a movie about him, but you're right that the voices are quite similar.
I love the bond villian motif of Zeihan's backdrop.
Peter is the best
The revelations from this interview is just WOW! At the Precipice we go…
It was lovely to see Carr interview Zeihan
AAA+. Excellent, insightful interview!
Can't wait for the new James Reece book!!! When is season 2 of the show coming?
Peter Zeihan has a fantastic voice.
Peter Zeihan reverberating Peter Quill briefing the CIA from Homeland to the letter. Epic
Wow!
All of it" excellent!
Thank You Jack! My favorite podcast interviewer doing an hour long podcast of my favorite morning briefer. Can’t wait for the next book!
Fascinating conversation Can’t wait for the book
Great episode! Thank you 🙏🏻
Peter has been spot on with a bunch of predictions in Ukraine. He's brilliant
Except he said that the US had no presence in Ukraine and never provoked a war with Putin. NYT just came out with article confirming the CIA was doing just that. He pulls a lot of debatable opinions out of his ass but says it like it’s absolute fact. Entertaining political commentator but that’s all he his.
I appreciate that as dark as Peter's statements are, he still comes out with a positive outlook.
"RED SKY MOURNING" is now BURNED into my LED monitor for an hour after i fell asleep to your podcast! CHANGE THE CHIRON!!!
All this sounds great. When this guy talks ive noticed it always sounds good for America. I hope its all true. Id like to hear a debate with somone that disagrees
A positive ending to an episode with Peter? What a twist!
“Netanyahu just missed that this was going to happen”. I am amazed that Zaihan missed all the signs that he knew perfectly well and even funded it!
He knows and he is paid well not to say anything about it. Zeihan is a neo conservative. If you know who they are and their origins then you know what informs all of Zeihans extremely slanted perspectives.
Enjoyed the discussion!
Unreal. And I have read Peter's latest book. But this was the most lucid and detailed presentation of Peter's core ideas.... ...must be the interviewer or a special cup of coffee that Peter drank or a good day. Thanks!
Why would anyone listen to this grifter!
So much Wisconsin mentioned in a middle-east topic? From a Cheesehead that enjoyed this cogent and engaging discussion...
Good interview as always. Being from Wisconsin, I love Peter's random ISIS/WI comparisons! Makes me laugh every time.
Same lol
What comparison?
I was going to call BS on Peter’s theory of Siberian wells having to be redrilled if they froze off but then I had an epiphany. I am a 37 year veteran of the Alberta oil patch and I have seen well heads,surface and production casing split when frozen under extreme conditions. In Canada when this happens we intervene immediately to address the problem before it becomes a complete right-off. But in Russia the territory is so vast, the oilfield infrastructure is substandard, the petroleum workers and management are so complacent or just completely incompetent that the complete destruction of a well is absolutely possible if it is not addressed in a prudent and timely manner.
Would be cool if you could have a narrator through up some charts photos and statistics during your pod cast to show how some of the bias learning scenarios are being developed for those of us that are not proficient historians. Great job getting everyone thinking more big picture.
Zeihan is briliant, even if he is wrong, his use of data and logic is always defendable...
Nice to hear what I consider trustworthy news
Thank You for this Jack! I’m going to order your book, part as a good read and part to show appreciation for your podcasts!
Beyond the books, when does the Zeihan Merch line come out?
Zeihan is always a good listen. Listening to his presentation and answers to questions, I am reminded of a suggestion I made after 9/11. During my Brigade Military Intelligence briefing on the 9/11 attack, while the smoke was still rising, I presented my analysis of the situation and what would happen. I also added a warning. My warning was 3 world class Superpowers had fought and won in Afghanistan only to lose the postwar peace. Therefore, I suggested planning a postwar peace and speedy withdrawal. I offered specific recommendations for what to leave behind. My idea came from an article in SOF magazine. Do not nation build in an Afghanistan. It has only its capital as a modern city, with an educated population, capable of western style democracy. Instead, I proposed using a National Council representing all people groups as well as natural regional areas. I also suggested giving only limited military add in Afghanistan and mostly to just the Northern Alliance. I sent my Report and Analysis up my Chain of Command to Division. Obviously, it was not used. The situation in Iraq as very different. It’s a colonial fabrication of people groups designed to further colonial governance interests. The US should never defend colonial borders unless these borders use a federal governance system allowing respect of minority people groups rights. Iraq has 3 people groups: Shia Muslim Arabs, Sunni Muslim Arabs, and Kurds. Iraq also has 2 huge Cities in Baghdad and Basra. These 5 natural divisions lend themselves to be 5 States in a Federal system. Each State could have an Army National Guard of its own. The Air Force would have 3 bases in Shia, areas, 1 base in Sunni area, and 1 base in Kurdish area. The Iraqi Navy would be only Federal located in the Basra State. My goal was to diversify control from a colonial model. This idea never went anywhere with an authoritarian minded Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. It amazes me how the US Military has manuals on everything except a Pacification Corp and a Peace Corp. The Pacification Corp would be designed on Units and equipment to transition from a wartime victory to peacetime governance. The Peace Corp would take over at some point, to promote social independence. These groups would not be hastily assembled. The Pacification Corp and Peace Corp would plan out the Operations as if they were Combat Units. The Pacification Corp would actually work with the Combat Units to plan a post battle handover. The Pacification Corp may determine the situation might never be suited for handover to the Peace Corp. If determined prior to the war, Pacification will handoff to local Forces sympathetic to US interests. This would demand an insertion and exertion plan. If the Pacification Corps could not stabilize a country or area of a country, the Combat Military might have to resume control until Pacification is possible. Previous examples in the involved country like Vietnam and Afghanistan cannot be ignored by either Political or Military Leaders. The Peace Corps I mention is NOT a pot smoking do gooder band from the 1960s. My Peace Corps is Engineers, Accountants, Financial Experts, Teachers, and Medical Service Professionals who can plan out development of a war torn country. The Peace Corp cannot and will not get mired down in transforming a backward country into a modern country. Nevertheless, if a country has untapped potential resources, it might be considered for limited development to coincide with reconstruction. If given a particular country, I could detail a specific answer.
Interesting take on things. My concern was not winning the battles, but what to do the next day. Here in Canada, we sent and spent a lot on Afghanistan with very little long term benefit. Too bad something wasn't tried along the lines you suggested. I would add that creating and protecting an honest judiciary is also very important to preventing reversion to sh**hole status. (for any country)
@@dougsmith5690 My point with Afghanistan is that unless Afghans thought of the idea themselves, they would fight. The US cannot make a backwater into a modern country. Afghanistan is a Muslim version of Appalachia. You bribe, with money only, those people required to kill Bin Laden and as many Al Qaeda confederates as possible. Then you get Afghans to kill the blind sheik. If you need airport security, only the Northern Alliance gets armed with vehicles like Strykers. Then you exit leaving a National Council of Afghan people groups leaders and regional leaders. Left behind is an Afghanistan almost the same as prior to the invasion only minus about 1200 bad guys. It was a 2 year maximum operation. It never should have lasted longer than the introduction drones with hellfire missiles. Here is some good advice I learned long ago. Do not fight over an ugly girl at a bar. When you wake up sober with teeth missing you realize she was not worth it. If you do the same thing with a pretty girl, for loss of the same teeth, at least sober you think it was a good decision. Countries with strategical value like location, natural resources, good manufacturing, and/or an educated population are pretty girls. Any country lacking these assets is an ugly girl. If you know Afghanistan is an ugly girl sober, but you have to go in anyway, you do whatever you have to as fast as you can and leave. I used nicer language, but this was my prewar exit plan for an Afghanistan invasion I submitted in writing to my Command.
The fact that your insights were not given the slightest consideration should tell you what the rest of us clearly see: the system isn't remotely interested in things like freedom, peace and prosperity. Its goal is chaos and profit for the sake of chaos and profit. Get it?
@@kimmyj1512 What it tells me is leadership in every occupation and in every environment often does not seek out those thinkers who can make an impact. I know for an absolute fact even well managed corporations have pockets of dinosaur thinkers trying to defend themselves, or their area, or are just blind to innovation. The US Military does many AARs (After Action Reviews) which impact positively on some change. Why was an Armor Officer like me “volunteered” to transition to Military Intelligence? It’s because MI was deemed ineffective as was needed in Desert Storm/Kuwaiti Liberation. My Colonel overheard me tell the Battalion S2 at the time how GEN Schwartzkoft would attack through the Neutral Zone to cut Iraqi supply lines. The S2 actually laughed and said that would never happen. When actually came to pass, my Colonel must have remembered my comments. The AAR took about a year to complete, and then I was transitioned. My only request was to still wear my Tanker Boots which just arrived from the Cav Store. It’s hard to believe MI work could be as rewarding as firing a MBT or leading an Armor Unit. Nevertheless, leading a MI Staff and helping your Commander make wise and timely decisions has its rewards.
Did anyone else go check their front door after the intro played?