Nassim Nicholas Taleb: How to Live in a World we Don't Understand
2013 ж. 16 Сәу.
253 270 Рет қаралды
concordia.ca/now
The Department of Political Science and Loyola College for Diversity and Sustainability present Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a world renowned author and scholar who will discuss his work on uncertainty, randomness, and disorder outlined in his new book: Antifragile. Taleb's works focuses on decision making under uncertainty, as well as technical and philosophical problems with probability and metaprobability, in other words "what to do in a world we don't understand"
31:23 - "At no time in the history of mankind have we had as many people in positions of power with as little downside to themselves".
Cc
His other book - Skin in the Game
He means the Richter scale, not the Geiger Scale, when talking about earthquakes. Geiger is for radiation.
Always enjoy listening to a man who is intellectual while still having a sense of humor
He is so disruptively inspiring--and brave. Great talk. Thank you.
Of course there people equally wise; perhaps even wiser - but good luck finding them or their books! What a mind - and heart!
The greatness of uncertainty and randomness or disorder rhyme in creative thinking. It is quite interesting to seek meaning from odd phenomenon.
This video was filmed in Antarctica during a blizzard, as you can see clearly
@Shikhar Srivastava it's intended :D
if you read his works and then come to this presentation, this talk is easy to understand but if you dont, then you'll probably think he's insane i love that about him he's doing EXACTLY what he describes in his books, it makes perfect sense and it proves that he eats his own cooking
1 hr 33 min A man ought to read just as inclination leads him; for what he reads as a task will do him little good --Samuel Johnson
Brilliant
I greatly appreciate mr taleb’s work. We need to personalize the idea of skin in the game. Simply meaning you must be willing to suffer the consequences of your risk and make others equally aware of the risk they may be taking in with you. However in not allowing me Taleb a disproportional part of your value system, regardless of a feeling you understand him completely or possibly incompletely… you must then take on in complete good faith and with a hole hearted intent his self proclaimed nemesis… what we do best is judge peoples commitment to their beliefs… hence the skin in the game they are willing be attacked for. So if they are honestly committed to their work they should not be blown off… now we then must judge how open they really were to scrutiny and differing opinion, how strong they examined differing thoughts and work themselves and how honestly, and/or how valuable their belief system was in their own existence. It may not be about success but value they added by quality of life they enhanced… if they hold up I suspect their work/ideas/existence will live on inside the future… if after looking at the work in contrary to your own beliefs that seem to fail to meet the standards I laid out then likely they will dissolve away as an exercise…
Around 4:22, the connection to Kahneman's system 1 and system 2 thinking connected two ideas in a remarkable way
Great thinker!
A now you all must catch me yumi
Nassim says that we should go to a lot of parties!
I've been to very little parties over my life time as always kept myself away from people... I'm going grey now
1:30:00 on reading because your are interested in things
great talk!!
superb
I have watched 22 min of video and realized that understanding life is dependent on a few things. If your a mathematician you see in math. If your good with word you see it linguistically ...etcetera ...ecetera. no one can be develoed in all areas. Thus being part of understood the world is incomplete.
And if you carry on with that thought, you will come to realize some stunning things about how incredibly genuine you (YOU) are. Kind regards.
@@furlockfurli2719 thanks. No offence taken . I look at my life as it was and see alot of times when i saw life different. Mabe that a reason we could be here. To learn to be better?
@@johnramirez5032 Even if this won't be the main reason, I would happily sign any future contract on that! Wish you the best, mate. Ah, my English is terrible, so when I said "genuine", I mean unique with it. :)
So many responses in here that fail to address the content. If you care about his message READ HIS BOOKS. Don't watch some youtube video. That is only fun after reading, and appreciating, his written work/art. "Fooled by Randomness" is the best start, then proceed with "The Black Swan". Yes, Nassim has poor presentations skills. I DON"T CARE! His brains work just fine, and he has surprising insights to share. Smart people can learn a lot from him. The rest nothing, because they just don't understand it at all.
Thank you I needed this comment. Was told to read his books and have just tried to listen to KZhead videos. I think I just need to start reading.
And the king of the crop is Antifragile
I tried reading fooled by randomness and for first hundred pages which is one third of the book all i got were some random stories about people in the trading business i thought his book addressed a bigger population but no its just a compilation of anecdotes which really have no value whatsover so i stopped reading the book almost midway i might pickup again but its not really what a expected
@@ahbarahad3203 Definetly hard to get started, you gotta have that Eureka moment. I personally started with Skin in the Game (really doesnt matter where you start, as NNT's books are written in a fractal-like style), and never looked back on it. I'm only missing Antifragile and Bed of Procrustes, though I am reading Fooled by Randomness for the second time - and I feel like I understand it much better now, paying attention to some stuff I didn't before.
I disagree with Nassim on many points but it was a pleasure to hear him speak. Cheers
I am very curious what did he say about smoking at 1:00:00 as the video has ben cut
When i hear Nassim i think if he knew about Bernard de Mandeville, wrote The Fable of the bees, they called Man Devil. Some similarities.
Good video. I own XRP and it was frozen. I see things opening up with gold/silver and crypto. I thought it was venus retrograde in leo for me. Since I'm a Leo and that was a past opportunity from 3 years ago . My xrp was frozen for almost 3 years
52:57 The guy asks "what do you suggest to the people attending your lecture so that they don't get out of the lecture hall ...", and at the same time someone was getting out of the lecture hall :D
45:20. “That’s very nice” hahaha
He didn't mean saints in a moral sense, but in terms of them absorbing the bad turnout of risks to safeguard other people from such turnouts. Anyone that fits that description would be a saint with regards to fragility. He used police and firefighters as illustrative examples.
So basically we have to think outside the box. Tinkering and heuristics. Break some rules.
OTM calls and puts gain more from Vega than gamma?
Taleb throws the F Bomb.
WOW REALLY F BOMB!?
@@TheNameIsFreddy yep, more than one F bomb and several BS bombs. Taleb went thug life here.
Can someone help me - he said that there are four kinds of life. I can't understand the last kind - 1. Honorable, 2. Comfortable, 3. Long - what is the last one?
Very entertaining. But earthquakes are measured by the Richter (not Geiger) scale (and by some scales derived from Richter's). And IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that harm from earthquakes IS LINEAR AFTER ALL: because the SCALE is itself already logarithmic....
He's believe's in: this bares repeating.m
How one would summarie it
In today’s world the top 1% people have majority of upside, and transfer their downside to the system or to others.
I get the feeling he has no time for communists. Just a hunch.
👌🏾
"To match a tinker with intelligence you need Tarzon IQ points" In other words a tinkering entrepreneur is like a person with Tarzon IQ. Really motivational sentence for starters.
Just tinker with things that have low downside and great potential
"Thousand" IQ points
4:55 then they understand it better 😂
Interesting. Got yellow swan?
12:00
1:13:22~ 1:14:00 a guy try to ask Mr. Taleb a question about consipracy theory..
You know when I was listening to this I thought I was listening to a nut; like the seeing the four doctors thing. Then I found out it was Taleb. Weird.
I don't want to ask him what he thinks of Nostradamus. :)
....that would make central bankers anti-saints.
perhaps Nassim can publish a list of foods and the risk that is inherent in eating each different morsel of each listed food
🥴
So "Fat Tony" says be rigorous, not religious, the difference being rigorously established truth/fact.., costly investment, ..and beliefs that work OK most of the time but cost nothing until they cost you everything!. That's why we have to grow up when we leave the protection of our "real" perceived parents and have to do risk assessments on the World as it actually is. Fair Warning from an experienced Academic.., thank you. The "Leaders are too incompetent", which is the real reason why there's been no nuclear war, because the people who administer power have to double up on competence, and they understand general principles with real consequences. Are people "really" good or bad? Ask about the difference between a good and bad Predator, the Prey can't give any sensible answer without having a bias, like the Predator, that is why the population polarises naturally into Political Parties that reflect their self delusions(?). Fraud is active, deliberate ignorance of actual consequences. Exceptionally high quality information, if you have the right preparation, which is probably true for most things..
Spacex!!!!!
Taleb doesn't mention the largest class of fragility transferers: voters. Voters never pay individually for their mistakes.
You realize that every voter has an infinitesimal fraction of "responsibility" in elections. So they do pay individually it's just as tiny a fee as it gets.
Responsability is shared among voters. As is the risk. If they vote a "wrong" system, they will live in it. I don't see how is that not paying for their mistakes.
Until Sars2 in the US.
@@Mica-sf9ud voters prolly won't swing an election individually anyway, so getting it wrong isn't likely going to punish anyone and getting it right isn't worth the research individually because it is so unlikely to affect the outcome.
Nassim is a great thinker. His writing is much better than his presentation skills, mostly because his voice is very dimmed and rambling… If he could go on a training and significantly improve, he would make a much needed IMPACT in the world… look at Jordan Peterson, he also wanders mentally, however he has varied intonation and a more precise and clear diction, therefore we can bear with his ramblings… Nassim is an unpolished diamond, stage-wise
Imagine if he practiced presenting on stage before his books were published..
Peterson is a native english speaker whereas english is Taleb's third language.
At 50 min. - the only time I've heard NNT be "not even wrong" - re religion. For so many reasons. Still love him but boy he's off base there. D.A., J.D., NYC
all kinds of crazy beliefs [46:30] - like religion? It's recursive
Le Sserafimからここに来たw
Mr Taleb seems to be doing quite well at living in a world he doesn't understand. The answer, as he so admirably demonstrates, is to mostly talk and write bollocks.
This guy to mathematics is what Deepak Chopra is to Quantum Mechanics. He can convince the average Joe by giving him average Joe logic sugared by undergraduate math jargon.
So far he is very successful in risk management and makes more money with every crises He is not a "mathematician" But whatever the F he is doing has been working since 1987
You know you're important when you can drop f bombs in lectures at university and one cares.
Hmm linking the european debt problems to declining catholicism...sounds like he is being fooled by randomness?
He is a Maronite Lebanese, so his background prejudices him.
His books are amazing, he is a lousy speaker....Not engaging at all, does not articulate well, and just loses me. I LOVE his books though....Thought about using his videos in class, but after listening to several, no, no, no.......
can't follow him.
He's a lousy public speaker, but his books are good. He has no discipline as a speaker. It's shameful. He stammers and doesn't finish sentences he starts. He should try harder!! This is a rambling mess!! Surprised he doesn't demand more of himself. He'd be better off reading his book, but he could not without STAMMERING ALL THE TIME! Dammit! Do it right!
i couldn't finish his books either.
Dexter Haven He does this on purpose and he explains why in Anti-Fragile.
ilikechess1 You bought that lame argument? Don't be so gullible. No one speaks lousy on purpose. It's possible to make a self-serving face-saving excuse about it, though. Just don't' be a sucker for it. He speaks the same way in debates and interviews, silly, where there is no justification, however lame, for it. C'mon, don't be a 'turkey,' as he would say.
Dexter Haven But it's not possible to either: A) speak lousy on purpose, B) not care about not polishing his public speaking skills to some standard? So someone is "gullible" for buying his argument, but your skepticism, unsupported by anything more than personal incredulity, is somehow, what? somehow less fallible? No justification? At all...? More personal incredulity it seems.
The idea is talk like Bob Costas not like this 'hot mess.' Take any section at random and write a transcript for someone else: say, at 6:41: "The two way, ah, you know, the two way, ah, um, ah, ah, the, the, the effect… And let me, let me, let me explain that simple point." Painful!
***** No that was just your snarky way to try to defend the indefensible. It is possible to have good content, as in his books, and a lousy manner of saying it, as in the transcript excerpt above. How come you are unable to distinguish between speaking manner and content? You conflate the two. Also, the following strictly consists of the content of his speech too, as in his exact locution, "the two way, ah, um, ah, ah, the, the, the effect… And let me, let me, let me." So, you are basically a lying sack of shit who is trying to float a sophistry. Shame on you.
Dexter Haven Can you send us some videos of yourself public speaking, so we can see from a critic (I mean expert) how it's done?
Mark Joinnides Why change the subject? That was a total non sequitur by you. The issue here is this speaker. But you avoid the section I quoted above at random and tried to call attention to some other speech somewhere that may or may not exist? How does that help resolve this issue? It doesn't. Try to be logical. Start from the transcript section quoted above and compare it to common-sense standards for good speaking skills - classes in oration at college, say, or the sermons of Billy Graham or Louis F. Try to stay on topic. Then we can move on to the issue of my speaking skills. In the meantime, imagine any speech by George Will. Listen to the diction.
Dexter Haven So, I guess you can't send us a video of yourself public speaking. The "issue" is not the speaker, but your inability to hear his message because he says "um" a few times when searching for the right word. English is, I believe, Nassim's third language, after Arabic and French. Even native speakers say "um" here and there. Bob Costas is great at what he does -- no doubt a talented broadcaster and an insightful sports journalist. Nassim is an author. He doesn't speak (English) as well as Bob Costas because he doesn't have to. Nassim writes extremely well, and he doesn't need to waste his time on people too dumb to understand him just because they're too shallow to look past his speaking style. Bob Costas is an exception because I believe he's actually smart, but most of the empty suits on TV speak like smooth hotshots while the content is just hot air. Idiots like to watch them because they sound slick, which is enough for them. This is a tangent to the content of Nassim's words. Criticize what he says, not how he says it. And if you want to criticize how he says it, at least step up to show how you can do it better yourself instead of referring me to George Will and Billy Graham. There are a thousand examples of better public speakers than Nassim -- big deal. Give me one example of someone who can convince me that he's wrong. I came to this video with an interest in Nassim after reading The Black Swan and starting Antifragile, not for public speaking tips from somebody I've never heard of.
***** Aha, you must insult, because you can't rebut. That proves you're illogical. You also just violated the principle of fidelity in philosophy by falsely claiming I believe "good diction trumps message." No, I don't, and don't conflate the two things. Treat them separately, as I do. That's called being able to make "distinctions." A good thing. Read the transcript I faithfully transcribed above again, and then address the issue of oratory skills separately. Ortherwise, you are being intellectually dishonest.
His opinion on Dawkins and Pinker, two of the greatest minds of this century, makes me wonder why he (Nassim) doesn't follow his own principle regarding fragility in this case. He doesn't take into account that he might be wrong and being open minded and antifragile would help him grow as a person. It weird how some smart people become stuck in their own heads sometimes. That's reminding me of the shoemaker who has shitty shoes.
Pinker is naively optimistic about AI risks. Taleb correctly critiques his bad understanding of statistics. Dawkins just arrogantly rants about "muh atheism". He never says anything profound.
Axel Schultz read his books.
Well nobody is perfect.
What’s funny is that taleb talks about this flaw in his book fooled by randomness. How someone so ingrained with a certain belief that they end up not following it themselves. I won’t spoil the but it was a good part of that book and taleb acknowledges that he is aware of this.
@@seren1ty755 please spoil it!!
Am I the only one who thinks this is BS?
Yes
Reading the book we will be rich ,to tune 3,4 million dollars or not
He's so smart. Too bad he stammers so badly and can't finish his sentences half the time, like at the start!! That's not how to earn the viewer's attention. Gosh! Try to speak without ah's and um's at least and to finish sentences!
He stops because it's apparent the direction he going. So instead of babying people he expects his energy and time will be be better used not______.
Adam Lakes No, you are making excuses. I wrote out what he said in transcript form in some comment and proved the point beyond doubt, with all his repetitions and self-interruptions. He's just not in control of his words; he starts a sentence and then trips his way along, groping in the dark to find a period somewhere .
It's not about the ah's and uhms. If you psychoanalyze Taleb's comments, then he comes across as anti-science. That's a problem.
Adeel Khan Well, it depends what sort of psychoanalysis. Do you mean traditional Freudian analysis or a derivative kind? I prefer a Rogerian analysis with Taleb, whereupon I detect a sort of Popperian and Wiggensteinian aversion to universality, which manifests in a skepticism that can be mistaken for anti-science when it is actually pro science, in the sense of radically empirical, always ready for the exception to the rule.
Taleb explains the value of opaque presentation at the outset of this very talk. It draws attention and therefore understanding. See also www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/01/31/easy__true/
Nassim the clown of wall street.
+TheMarketsLive that clown made his firm a billion dollars in august 2015. How much money did u make during that time?
+Benjamin Dorsey This guy in another video is telling people to read books of Nassim /watch?v=pqzcCfUglws
Benjamin Dorsey You have been drinking too much Kool Aid, I mean Coke.
Benjamin Dorsey 2.5 M without been a Clown. Your friend Bernie Madoff made his firm 60 billion so what?
+TheMarketsLive you made 2.5 million to talebs billion. so your saying the clown out performs you by 1000 times then? hahah
for a writer, he is really bad at talking and explaining his ideas. this is horrible.
This is all speculation and waffle. We need data to know if what Taleb is saying makes any sense. If he's been doing this for twenty or thirty years let him show us the success in his portfolio results. But instead we see a track record of him lurching from one job to another and writing books for a living without any evidence that he can produce Warren Buffet or even John Bogle type returns. If you can't show that you can either beat or equal the index over the long term, shut up.
his failure in the markets too him to write about black swans and uncertainty and NOBODY can predict the markets consistently over the long haul.