Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses Antifragility at NYPL.mp4
2013 ж. 19 Ақп.
382 647 Рет қаралды
Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses Antifragility at NYPL on Feb 5, 2013
www.pleasemishandle.com/video/
Fat Tony's Antilibrary: An online directory of books, articles and videos by Nassim Taleb.
Taleb and Kahneman are two of very few of people that I've read in my life that actually brought genuine clarity to my understanding of the world.
Yeah, Taleb gave them the idea to release a pandemic to make society more anti-fragile.
In what way though? Pray, do tell.
Naval Ravikant is also great if you're into tech
@@quasa0 what has he done?
@@vancedadder Just listen to him and his ideas instead of just naively asking "what has he done?" you moron
I wish we could have Danny and NNT talk again in 2021. Fascinating minds.
Their books changed how I see the world
Black Swan is about the epistemological limits of humans. Antifragile is about how you might work with the knowledge of those limits to create a more nourishing and honourable life
Me, too!
AnnetteWarren how?
Same here
@@gm679 i see modernity as an experiment, and try to reduce my exposure to the untested novelties. Let the naive risk takers test out things like trans fat, coca cola, diet fads, pesticides, pollution and such. I'll stick with the significantly more time tested and therefore more trustworthy things like running, walking, bone marrow, avoiding desk jobs, gave up driving, invest in social relationships, etc.
The way Prof. Kahneman gives a better answer than NNT at the end to a question on antifragility...impressive.
I would modify the keyword in the question, from gasoline, to 'energy deliverance', because that's what we're trying to achieve in a crisis. Today, the answer would be solar energy plus batteries at the home level. The cars would be electric, of course.
ny1152 And flying with bio fuel?
but they are both right.
@@gm679 kaneman have NO IDEA what is nassim talking about
@@gm679 as i said recently u only respect and get NNT if u deal with humans, if you deal in markets and you deal in maths. He is so ahead of the curve its unreal.
"Antifragility" is a must-read book for everyone!
"Options Traders know 2 things. Volatility and Alcohol" - NNT "You have F*ck You Money" - Daniel Kahneman This was great getting these 2 on the same stage talking about Antifragility. My Day is made.
"...And we had Mr Greenspan. Two big mistakes." (Incidentally, that sounded very Trumpean.)
Kahneman is a true teacher.
What a fantastic debate between two of the greatest modern minds. Pure exchange of ideas, to the core. So inspiring and refreshing! Taleb and Danny K, you guys have changed my life, thank you so much!
Holy crap. What an absolutely brilliant interlocution. I so wish, I was smart enough to find this 7 years ago. Would have been a really different and better past. Better late than never!
Haha true an I'm only 23!
@@quasa0I'm 23 too
thank you for posting
39:35 Taleb, the one behind the concept of anti-fragility, mentions sitting on a chair your whole life will make your back weak. And what does Kahneman, the illuminator of anchoring do? Sits up straight. Fitting. =]
Can you explain further?
S P A short explanation of anchoring is that information received effects actions. Taleb says, “sit up,” and kahneman obliges, physically and subconsciously displaying the study in which earned him the nobel prize.
Brilliant
Wow, good call. Daniel took it to heart and shaped up. Imagine if Nassim said, "If you sit and fantasize about sexy girls all the time, you never notice the ones right in front of you." [Daniel immediately stops a daydream of Pam Anderson passed around the showers of an NBA locker room and squints into the crowd and smiles at a pretty girl in the third row.]
so much wisdom in just an hour! great!
Thanks for posting.
Loved the ending! Thanks Nassim. You are a gift.
so apparent how much Nassim respects Daniel. Makes one enjoy his other raging bull videos much more :)
Well worth the 90 minutes. Great conversation.
Such a great talk. Nicky's enthusiasm in speaking with Danny is so endearing.
Man, what a brilliant talk. Truly a godsend
Thanks for sharing this. Enjoyed it
They are both incredible!
A fantastic discussion. It was inspiring to see Daniel take an objective look at Naseem's perspective.
The most genuine thinkers of our time.
Thanks to Brother Taleb for teaching us the value of Ekadashi!
You need a Keith AND a Mick. You need an Iggy Pop AND a Berlin-era Bowie. You need a Lennon AND a McCartney. You need a Morrissey AND a Marr.
These two complement each other perfectly
+Kevin Yang - the irony of it: one is Lebanese, the other, a Jew; oh, the wonderful things these two peoples (the Lebanese and the Jews) might concoct together, if they just put their two brains in the same tank !
I thought Lebanese Christians are not particularly anti-Jewish. After all, they are natural allies in a region dominated by Islam. Atheists are in the same boat, Zoroastrians, etc. Even smaller Muslim "heretical" movements.
they don't kaneman have no idea what nassim is talking about
@@jackglore4043 Kahneman just gave a better answer than Taleb to a question about anti-fragility. So what are you talking about? Have you even watched the discussion?
These kind of discussions learn us what risk is all about!
Just amazing video, thank you for more than an hour of a great pleasure to listen to these two intellectuals.
Awesome! continue your good work to inform the people....
This video is such a good revision after reading the book
Some lady asks about gun control, and they both shoot her down. Oh, the justice.
most powerful ideas I've found come from these two
Beautiful minds.
Best part about nassim is even at the age of 65 or 68 plus 72 he is still learning. But cannot define antifragilr
He did, perhaps its your lack of intellect thats preventing you from grasping the concept and resorting to petty ridicule.
NICE TO SEE NNT and Daniel Kahneman. Put both their brains together, you get a Universal Question of Life.
I'm obsessed with these two
Taleb is just amazingly unpretentious. Love this discussion!
I don't think Kahneman was saying that we are harmed by small stressors. I think he was just saying that we don't like even small stressors. So, he is identifying what humans have a tendency to avoid. He is not saying that it is good to avoid it.
Without knowing the connection between the two authors, I've read both Thinking fast and slow and Antifragile. There's definitely something special about these two
I am so happy that some people are really fighting neo-capatalist thinking without going neo-romantic. These are great thinkers both shaking the foundations of what is taught at schools and universities as economics.
What is "neo-capitalism"? Is central banking a unique property of "neo-capitalism"?
Neo-capitalism. lol. Do you have a degree in political economy or something equally degenerate? Capitalism is free trade, full stop.
Whoever says neo capitalism is retard.
Surprisingly good discussion on an interesting topic.
They should make it a 10h session next time!
The best youtube video I have seen in years. I knew Nassim point of view very well before and Daniel has added a very good angle to it. Now, I am wondering if people who understand Nassim like myself have not experienced in their life a *personal* BlackSwan making a huge impact on our life. This personal event makes us more conscious of BlackSwan events and value protection more than short-term, fragile, ignorance driven worryless quality of life. Thank you for sharing.
You’re on to something with this idea about personal black swan
I totally agree. I had been freelancing with little success for about a year and the Black Swan helped me understand that all I needed was a positive black swan event which would likely occur if "I kept positioning myself" in such a way as to benefit from it. And that's what I did. I bumped up my applications while trying to keep all else equal. When normal jobs came, I tried to do them well but not let them interfere with sending out applications. And then it happened. I made more money from one Client in a month than I did from 10 clients 6 months before. Of course it was painful sending applications and not getting responses. Or getting responses and no hires, but the understanding that always sending applications (while trying to keep all else equal or better, improving my skills while waiting) was one of the most important things I could do. Please note that this only works when you have very good evidence to believe that the platform you're using, niche, skill level etc can provide and have provided for others the kind of success you need. So Nassims Idea has really helped me a whole lot. Daniel's too. As knowing that the pain I was feeling was normal allowed me ride it much more easily. These guys are legends.
I loved the "too big to fail" -prevention heuristics 👏👍
Tinha que ter conhecido vocês antes💚foda putz.
5:53 - "Time can detect fragility and take care of it"
Taleb says that a system that allows small losses makes the system more robust and safer for all of us from larger shocks. Yet Kahneman says small losses are intrepreted as the most painful by humans. Just a marvelous discussion. And as a side note I'm glad Dr. Kahneman pointed out that Taleb goes overboard when attacking others he disagrees with.
Perhaps. His bombastic attitude, however does make for a more interesting read. Moreover, NNT is going after people who concoct ritual bs paper citation rings, transfer risks onto others, and/or blow up the economy through their system fragalizing interventions--perhaps some heckling is exactly what the doctor ordered.
There are free market dynamics such as first move advantage, economies of scale, learning/experience curves, etc. that allow companies to get bigger without necessarily being propped up by government. However, in the longer term, big companies start to divert more resources to protecting their incumbent markets and less on disruptive innovation, and that is where smaller/newer firms usually come along and displace them unless regulatory capture of gov prevents this (bail outs etc.).
Holy Cow. I haven't watched it yet, but Daniel Kahneman and Nassim Taleb are two of the most reality based, scholarly and freshest thinkers in economics I have seen. This should be good. (And neither is an Austrian nor a Keyensian)
I’ve never felt so alive as I do after watching these two philosophical black belts wrestle.
In 2007 after a conference at the World Bank, when he signed his “The Black Swan” to me I told him he was wrong, this was not a Black Swan, it was a man-made crisis… and that he should not provide the bank regulators the perfect excuse,
Mr. Nassim has not once/never worked in a intellectual hothouse irrespective of being worked under a supervisor as trader. Not employed for a long time. Ultimate goal-Politics
1:11:41 protect the weak, encourage the entrepreneur
Of course we prefer robustness to anti-fragility, but that is precisely why we go to churches and pray God make us daring!
The prospect theory somehow reminds me of Irrationality from Dan Ariely
The last few questions... Hahahahaha what a way to end an otherwise fantastic discussion
Vaclav Smill also has a very interesting, well-researched perspective.
Sabastian Gorka and Nassim Taleb.. Love them both...great men!
It feels as if Taleb is making arguments for a normative model, whereas Kahneman is focussing on a descriptive model
great final answer
Hahahaha... the answer to the final question is memorable!!
variability is important. seasons in nature!(with periodicity)
Danny saying FU Money made my week
I´m an alcoholic (4 years sober). I have just realized that my cronic disease is that I have a innate tendency towards acting as if I were antifragile, when it is robustness that cures my fragility.
I love the part when someone from the audience asks "why are we so bad in calculating probabilities?" and Kahneman answers - in an elaborate way - "because we are bad at math". A question I would like to suggest: "Why do impostors get the and Nassim Taleb does not?"
Ninguém acreditava passado eu sempre amo vocês meus amores
Her question had nothing to do with the things they had talked about before. She could have just as well asked "but what about the obesity crisis/abortion/candy?". It was just random. The way she posed it was insulting and loaded with prejudice against intellectualism.
Hah! The end was perfect, I swear I was thinking the same as Daniel Kahneman like, "Huh, wait, why isn't Taleb quickly replying that simply relying on gas isn't anti-fragile at all and focusing more on transportation tech would be?" This was better than a damn movie.
Rest in peace Prof danny kahneman
Great heuristic is to build your buisness, so of income fall by 10%, your losses are only that 10%, not more. It is absolutelly impossible running big companies. I have not read all of Antifragile, but this one sticked in my head. If try harder, i could get You more solutions.
Exercise is good for you but nobody wants to exercise.
Love Taleb he is pure genius :D
These are the content for which I pay my internet bills.
I think I learn a lot from reading and listening to Taleb, but I am also usually frustrated. I think Kahneman latched onto the cause of the frustration, Taleb does a very good job of explaining what is bad or what you should not do. In his past books he has given short shrift to exactly how you accomplish the good that he is prescribing. I am hoping that when I read about Antifragility, he will do much better at explaining how to be antifragile. How do you arrange to benefit from variabilit
I think the message is to never get so enamored with the stability you become excessively fragile; rather, a middle ground is required. To live a life we can bear while being able to take in some level of instability. Bones get harder from stress but excessive stress may break them. I think antifragile was written as a reaction to people who bet everything on stability and predictions; completely misrepresenting the world, which will remain inherently volatile and unpredicable
How about that lady at the end that hadn't read their books who asked about gun control? Jeez, talk about a preamble.
peanutgallery77 its a question of relevance or usefulness. They seemed have the organizers to thank for that in how they billed the event (she references this). They perhaps were trying to cast a wide net to fill the room.
The piaf march intro almost killed me :-))) Vive la France!
Surely the black swan event for the turkey would be known as a red turkey event.
Why would you be injured if you had a roughly constant caloric intake ? Does it still apply if the "constant" part is in regards to the consumed calories ?
Although I admire the works and personas of both these people, I was disappointed that NNT was basically repeating himself over and over again strictly BY the book he wrote, and not straying even the tiniest bit from it. SO basically absolutely nothing new, even in the way of portraying examples. All of this upsetting me even more with that one of the main ideas of the Antifragile was that one should not limit oneself to the confines of owns educational luggage OR the vector of the discussion/research, so to speak. That reflects in the example NNT gave in the book about the medical experiments leading to unexpected results and being able to grasp the opportunities or possible implications of those deviant but not necessarily invalid or erroneus results. Same goes for the wheeled aztec toys or greek steam engine he wrote about. And here we see that NNT is wholly confined in the limits of his own work, literally word to word. Daniel Kahneman tries to pull him out of this stupor, but he seems to have failed in this with this discussion. NNT is running in circles here
1:17:33 bossing it up!
Whi is the person mentioned at the start Henry ? Thanks
1:12:00 (audience member translation) "You are discriminating against women, I haven't read your books, have no interest in any of the subjects you cover, but please, tell me what you feel about a controversial subject because I like to stir up shit and cause trouble" Ridiculous, it's like going to a Formula 1 convention and asking Vettel "I don't care about motor racing, or anything you've done in it, or anything related to it, but please, give me your views on abortion and the middle-east"
Dan Swers Yes, it was astonishing how stupid, self-centered, and inane the woman was.
+JimInNashville Yes, I was somewhat infuriated by it because she prevented a true scholar from having an opportunity to contribute something valuable. She was very entitled, arrogant and unapologetic, which made it harder to bear.
+M Ryan I burst out laughing when she finally said gun control.
Kevin Riley Professional shit-stirrer I bet. Notice how she leaves as soon as it's clear Nassim isn't having any of it.
I was hoping for an out-of-left-field question that invited an interesting, surprising answer which wouldn't have occurred to {Kahneman, Taleb, a reader} otherwise. A truly outside, yet potentially more insightful, perspective. But nope. She was just asking for a miracle cure to a terminal disease... from a local interior decorator. "I understand about half your design philosophy. I was told you help create flow in spaces, so I was wondering how your principle of feng shui applies to colonizing outer space." Just a blown opportunity for a good question. If it were me, then next time I would ask for ONLY the people under 19 or 20 (the younger and more precocious the better) to come up to the stand. I think the lad who'd just graduated high school asked the single best question of the night
Bogdan, A "constant caloric intake" is, by definition, the absence of stress induced by volatility (fluctuation) of intake. Taleb's view is that an antifragile system such as the human body requires such stress; otherwise you are living outside of the evolutionary milieu where volatility in frequency of eating (and composition: veg vs carnivore) was the norm. Brief and intermittent starvation is a good thing.
gomertube
52:00 information can be generated from iterative trials & error
two wonderfull men :))
"I'm talking to a shrink so I realized there's a factoni in me" lmao
You get protein in carbs also, such as buckwheat
And I gave him my book “Voice and Noise” and mentioned that it contained this: “There is a thesis that holds that the old agricultural traditions of burning a little each year, thereby getting rid of some of the combustible materials, was much wiser than today’s no burning at all, that only allows for the buildup of more incendiary materials, thereby guaranteeing disaster and scorched earth, when fire finally breaks out, as it does, sooner or later. Now listen to minute 16:05 to 16:15…
Where can i find your book sir? i hope you still alive, . . . .
Honor os livros que comprei. Mesmo desempregado
It's amazing how he belabors defining anti-fragile in every speech like he's vexed or frustrated. He's be better off to plan a simple definition ahead and get over it and move on to more interesting things like applications. The concept is not as difficult to define as he makes it appear with his stops/starts and repetitions.
Muscles
Cardio. Hormesis.
Saw your video about Universa marketing material, risks, what? Airlines? Do you even know how many hours of 'flying' a category one commercial pilot needs to fly to secure it? Also, i'll give you an analogy, you are a junior pilot first, youbget a 100k portfolio to handle.
1:01:25 Taleb on inflation 1:03:45 Barbell strategy (On health context)
i have read almost all of the books by the Nassim nicholas taleb , they are really wonderfull with deep insights about the functioning of economy , but the main point is about the solutions ,, there are almost no solutions to non linearities , for non linear equations we do Common solution plus Particular solutions , from the view point of mathematicians , but how about the real world non linear problems of economies , how do we do their CS + PS and = what ,,,,,,,,, so i feel we all need to
i think flexibility is robustness...an anti-fragile skyscraper would probably store energy from the movement of the building, it gains from uncertainty not just adapt to it
Eu sigo na risca os conselhos dos senhores coroas de respeito.🦍💚🎎
He makes a good argument against the Euro and for free banking.
15.07? So what is the stock market ?
Taleb's mental models of life come from spending a majority of his time using system 2. Kahneman's bias is towards defending system 1 because his research has shown the masses live by it and get by just fine. Creates for an awkward dynamic between the two.
I feel more whole after listening to the Two Titans who have taken a massively positive troll on my understanding of the Basic principles of Life
Meu libanês amado meu judeu que amo com todas as forças do planetas
Ainda bem que lê uffa
There’s a thing called plasticity which is essentially extraversion + openness that makes people more likely to like randomness than routine. It is based on the Big Five Personality. My point is the speakers usually say people like stability, people are loss aversive, etc., but I think they’re missing the point that people are fundamentally different in temperaments, so some will like randomness more and some will like routine more. And this is apparent in Nassim’s preference for robustness and Daniel’s for stability.
Isn't it obvious that when someone says "people like..." they speak statistically? So pointing out that people are different, as an counter-argument, makes no sense...