China is ‘big winner’ in Ukraine-Russia war, says leading US political scientist
2024 ж. 9 Мам.
193 417 Рет қаралды
Subscribe to our KZhead channel for free here:
sc.mp/clipssubscribe
The West needs to prepare for an “ugly” Russian victory in Ukraine with China emerging as the “big winner” in the conflict, according to US political scientist John Mearsheimer. The R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago spoke with Post columnist Alex Lo in this conversation about where the Ukraine war is headed.
Support us:
subscribe.scmp.com
Follow us on:
Website: www.scmp.com
Facebook: / scmp
Twitter: / scmpnews
Instagram: / scmpnews
Linkedin: / south-china-morning-post
#scmp #SCMPOriginals #Ukrainewar
China is the biggest winner in this conflict simply by not being involved in this conflict
you are right
Every country that not involved are indeed the benefits but USA makes Billions in Arms sales.
I think China doesn't really need their trade partners to be in a war. But if saying that China is gaining will help people want stop the war then I am for it. The people really gaining is the Western military contractors and the pro-Putin oligarchs they make sure that the war is at a good pace so that their power is increased. China has a demographic crisis just like Europe, and other economies like LatinAmerica, India, and ASEAN are also growing.
@@aoeu256 China is the world's biggest trade partner with it being the biggest trade partner to almost all nations. War destroys world trade and world economy. China will become the world's leading economy before the decade is done without firing a single shot. China is the last nation to want a war.
And cheaper oil
Mearsheimer forget that the Taiwanese are also Chinese and will never act as the Ukrainians. They have a brain for other things than a war in their life.
Ukraine has a history with Nazism.
Yea. Taiwanese won't panic like the Vietnamese did...
And people in Taiwan Island have no the nz root like the western Ukraine!
Mearsheimer sadly is an amarikan, as such his view points will always be slightly warped, he can't help it, just the way things are in U$A.
Mearsheimer is not capable of interpretating geopolitical events objectively. Consider how the united states opened it's markets to Chinese manufacturing. Yet he asserts that the Americans do everything they can to thwart the Chinese economic success. Xi made a trip recently to the united states. I Wonder why? Mearsheimer takes himself much too seriously. Every time he states the phrase ( I think) I ask myself oh really??
Prof M is not a pessimist person! He is a realistic person!
Realistic about what? His preference is for the US to disengage Russia and concentrate on countering China.
@@stephenc6955 I’m from a little country from Eastern Europe and “the thinks” look different than from USA; but I believe that Prof M is more informed, more competent than your politicians and american people, related to geo-political movements in the world
John is not just a fool, he is a liar.
@@jane-ih4fo Oho-ho, you are an expert, you are PhD in something, you study history of the world, geopolitics and other things and you can say without doubt that hi’s a liar! Good!
I think China doesn't really need their trade partners to be in a war. But if saying that China is gaining will help people want stop the war then I am for it. The people really gaining is the Western military contractors and the pro-Putin oligarchs they make sure that the war is at a good pace so that their power is increased.
a strong, competitive German/European economy based on cheap Russian gas/oil and minerals scares the hell out of the USA.
All developing and under-developed countries benefits from the down fall of US or EU, best of it, both.
The US is already out of ammunition, munitions and equipment so is NATO, this shows neither the US not NATO is capable waging a long war, even if they like to think otherwise reality is truthfully harsh, one must think if NATO or US fights Russia now they be obliterated and the Russians calling it day 😂
Yah you are right
There are not down fall only in your brain.
yeah Mearshimer is agree with you
where would they get all their aid from????
Chinese leaders have said repeatedly over the past few decades they have no intention of invading Taiwan, unless the Taiwanese declare independence. China has the patience to wait a long long time for the unification to happen but the Americans don't. If the US and its allies were to eventually go into a war with China, it would be more advantageous to do so sooner than later. They know, by giving China more peacetime to build up their military and to strengthen their economic readiness, China will eventually become too big to fight. Therefore the urgency is with the Americans to provoke China into taking actions. Without such provocation, there will be no war. Hence Ukraine is indeed buying time for China.
The US only have to bribe Tsai IngWen USD 1 billion for her to declare independence
Absolute nonsense. You need to consult a psychiatrist. The USA and NATO does NOT need or want a war with China. That has zero positive effects. The chinese people themselves must change their fascist leadership and replace it with democracy.
USA is not Crazy to attack China. Actually Western countries knew before that if they attack China, Russia will supply weapons to China and maybe send some soldiers to help China. that's why they came up with the idea to weakened Russia first then they go for China but their plan failed they underestimated Russia. Since they killed Khadafi, Putin didn't like it. that's why he sent military in Syria, He stopped American in Turkey. He helped Ethiopian government. Putin has been stopped them in their last intervations. they didn't like it that's why they wanted to weakened him as all costs.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing's control. Hopefully, this will be later rather than sooner. The US is too weak right now to fight.
Yes, angl0regime talking point and fear mongering is hilarious
The days of Chinese killing Chinese are over. To mainland Chinese, Taiwanese are also Chinese. China will not invade Taiwan. However, if provoked, China will enforce a naval embargo surrounding the island. Any US carrier group coming to Taiwan’s aid will be met with hypersonic missiles. If Taiwan is truly democratic, it should hold a referendum to let the people decide whether to seek independence or not.
Correct- the US Pentagon has done simulations of attacking. On 17/18 scenarios, the hypersonic missiles wiped out the entire Pacific fleet.
Just blocks all economy and Arms in & out to Taiwan can put their knees down. Need Not to send any PLA.
“War in Ukraine is good news for China.” This is a very narrow view from an otherwise respected scholar. I believe Beijing would like the war to end because the war is hampering China’s economic growth and preventing the development of some global initiatives such as the BRI. To Beijing, security is vital to win-win economic growth, China’s efforts in the Middle East being a recent example.
The Americans will never coexist peacefully with both Russia and China. World war is inevitable. From the late 2019 forecast update from Deagel, Guide to Military and Civil Aviation The situation between the three great powers has changed dramatically. The only relevant achievement of the Western powers during the past decade has been the formation of a strategic alliance, both military and economic, between Russia and China. Right now the potential partnership between Russia and the European Union (EU) is dead with Russia turning definitively towards China. That was from the beginning the most likely outcome. Russia has been preparing for a major war since 2008 and China has been increasing her military capabilities for the last 20 years. Today China is not a second tier power compared with the United States. Both in military and economic terms China is at the same level and in some specific areas are far ahead. Six years ago the likelihood of a major war was tiny. Since then it has grown steadily and dramatically and today is by far the most likely major event in the 2020s. The ultimate conflict can come from two ways. A conventional conflict involving at least two major powers that escalates into an open nuclear war. A second scenario is possible in the 2025-2030 timeframe. A Russian sneak first strike against the United States and its allies with the new S-500, strategic missile defenses, Yasen-M submarines, INF Zircon and Kalibr missiles and some new space asset playing the key role. The sneak first strike would involve all Russian missile strategic forces branches (bombers and ground-based missiles) at the different stages of such attack that would be strategic translation of what was seen in Syria in November 2015. There was no report that the Russian had such a capability of launching a high precision, multiple, combined arms attack at targets 2,000+ kilometers away. Western intelligence had no clue. The irony is that since the end of the Cold War the United States has been maneuvering through NATO to achieve a position to execute a first strike over Russia and now it seems that the first strike may occur but the country finished would be the United States.
If US is going into a war with China over Taiwan, how long does it intend to fight and at what cost to American lives? In the age of technology, China would not commit physical bodies to an amphibious landing in the initial stage but instead fire tons of missiles at Taiwan to flatten it as in the case of American approach in the Iraq war. How many aircraft carriers is the US prepared to sacrifice in the Taiwan Straits?
and Taiwan will launch missiles into Shanghai, Xiamen, Beijing and Tianjin to gain the CCP's attention just before decimating the 3 Gorges Dam which will put China back 2 centuries. That is a total waste of all the advances made before Xi Jin Ping took over.
In their war games, they assumed two Carriers lost with about 2x5000 crew members
I dont buy that China can win the war by simply bombing Taiwan into submission. Time and time again, history tells us that the only way to win a war is to send boots on the ground and a war for Taiwan will be no different. Even your example of the Iraq proves my point
@@tongwu4667 One carrier sunk is enough for US to pull back BIG time
As has been stressed by Xi... Chinese people will not go to war with Chinese people...😢
It's not Ukraine-Russia war. It's USA-Russia war.
It's USA-China war.
A simple point noone ever understand. Thank you brother
It always makes my day when I see a new John mearsheimer video posted
Great minds thinkd alike!
he is brilliant and knowledgeable
He has definitely found an echo chamber in which speak with the Chinese and Russians, yes he has. Everyone else understands mearsheimer's political "realism" is nonsense.
Yeah, he's a CCP shill. Well paid too.
This bald man is an excellent angl0regime parrot. He wanted the west to take onto china first but US did exactly opposite. So, this bald man is an angry man crying foul everywhere😂😂😂
John Mearsheimer is one of the sanest analysts around but his views will never see the light of day in our government.
no he's not. He's been wrong on all things except that russia would invade. Meirsheimer is the perfect example of an academic who is trying to smash all events and facts into a theory that just isn't true!
I never listen to John Mearsheimer cause he is wrong and I listen to Yale Sutherland and Peter Zeihan.
He's only good when it comes to Russia. He doesn't know China and his take is only skin deep, derived from western texts.
@@RichardLionheart12Only idiots listen to Peter zeihan. He's knows nuts, a pea brain camouflaging as a Mr. know it all. And followers are also one and the same.
He's anti-communist/ anti-socialist and wants to keep both Russia and China down so he supports the status quo, capitalism. Fully supportive of the cold war he now wants to go after China, considering Russia a has-been that no longer represents the threat that it once did, having become a lesser threat that can be tolerated as long as it stays within its box. He supports US hegemony he's just concerned that other countries might now be able to fight back and so he wants Uncle Sam to be a little more circumspect when threatening its nuclear-armed rivals. In the USA there are only three types of people: those that want to go after Russia, then China; those that want to go after China, then Russia; and those who want to go after both at the same time. He's the second of the three.
- It's NOT what US Intelligence Community saying !!
If I remember correctly, Scott Ritter said that China would only need to put a blockade on Taiwan, and that China also has an advantage over the US when it comes to hypersonic missiles.
Scott Ritter? Hahahaha you guys are grasping at straws
The USA is developing and fielding hypersonic missiles faster than people think. There are multiple programs moving forward in the USA.
@@weewillywongathey dont even need to do this, just wait for burgerstan to collapse and implode😂😂😂
Yeah. None of China’s modern weapons system has ever been tested or verified by 3rd countries. The US weapons are all tested by other NATO countries so faults can’t be just covered up. It looks like these so called experts just believes whatever China says without any verification.
@@weewillywongaI would love for u to offer a more credible analyst. Tucker Carlson? Piers Morgan? John bolton? Boris Johnson? I am running out of names
Prof. Mearsheimer makes a lot of sense when he talks about Russia and Ukraine, but the idea that China poses any kind of threat to the United States is truly insane. And moreover Prof. Mearsheimer's lack of respect for China's sovereignty in Taiwan is deeply disappointing.
You're missing the point if you think it's about Mearsheimer's preference or personal opinion. He's strictly following his realist theory where it leads him. Nothing else matters.
His position is about the difficulty of amphibious military operation on Taiwan by the Chinese PLA. But is that the only way to capture Taiwan? I believe Taiwanese will surrender after just a few hours without electricity 😅 After all, what it takes away from Taiwan in unifying with China are military expenses and foreign affairs, these have nothing to do with the ordinary Taiwanese people, they can enjoy themselves as ever before. Here I also doubt the persistency of American intervention, you know things change and politics changes even faster. American people's wellbeing will the top priority over Taiwan, will you sacrifice your own life to intervene some body's family affairs?
Maybe, or just maybe Prof. Mearsheimer still has the mentality of the MSM and MIC. Maybe he has not even been to China or maybe he never has any Chinese friends to talk to. Up to now, you still can find a lot of Americans who are still mixed up Thailand with Taiwan and/or Hong Kong is in Japan or still a Brit's colony. Isn't it sad?
@@henrytan5707 Tiawan's self-destruct mechanism is located on the 3 Gorges Dam.
@@AndyFromBeaverton you know reciprocal damage agreement? The real conflict parties over Taiwan are China and US, these two super powers by principle already have insurances placed on each other. Just like between US and Russia, they won't fight each other directly due to this reciprocal damage agreement. They know who have the capability to do so.
16:40 The Taiwanese army has not fought a war since 1949. Would not same argument be true for Taiwan?
If you are referring to the Nationalist Chinese army that retreated to Taiwan then the other thing to add is that the war they last fought in 1949 was one that they lost.
Taiwan is a civil war issue for Beijing. It’s not to be determined by USA or Ukraine.
If the NATO weapons (from all major NATO countries, not just the USA alone) have failed to repel Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Would the US alone sustain Taiwan support on its own if China invaded Taiwan? I see no basis for NATO countries to fight China in Taiwan, is this not doomed for failure for the US?
Usa need to defend Taiwan per the defense pact. Trying to cancel your defense pact make you look so bad so even if usa will be lose they still need to give their defend
It would be doomed to failure for China. It can take Taiwan, sure, but it cannot HAVE Taiwan. Taiwan would be a wasteland by the time the conflict is over and China will have gained nothing other than the condemnation of the most powerful players in the international community as well as crippling sanctions that it wouldn't be able to endure in the same way that Russia has because of its reliance on food and energy imports. Should China invade, its combat power would be crippled. It will lose all hope of courting the European market, one of its core objectives. It will shatter the diplomatic and peaceful image of China that Xi has been trying to cultivate for some time now. A lot of problems. China won't invade Taiwan, even if it could win the war, it won't win the peace. You need both to end the conflict and be successful on the other side of it.
Doomed to fail with the current "leadership" we got...
@@GentlemanJack705 These are good points. It really seems like China is better off playing the long game. If they continue to increase their economic standing maybe one day THEY could be the ones imposing sanctions for, say, sending weapons packages to Taiwan. They should focus on eventual de-dollarization, and not turning Taiwan into Russia's Ukraine disaster.
Also the geography. The distance. What NATO can do in the west Pacific beside all the PR and posturing??? Distance and resources!
Mr Mearsheimer is like a prophet who speaks absolutely clearly about geopolitics. One just has to see his conference of 2015 on this Ukraine issue, he hatched the issues from its beginning and how henceforth it's going to end. And that's exactly how it has been. My hat is up sir.
Dmitri Medvedev- “I will note one thing that politicians of all kinds do not like to admit: a nuclear Apocalypse is not only possible but it is quite probable. Why? There are at least two reasons. First. The world is in confrontation much worse than during the Caribbean crisis because our opponents have decided to defeat the largest nuclear power - Russia. They are, no doubt, idiots, but that’s just the way it is. And the second reason is quite prosaic - nuclear weapons have already been used, and everybody knows by whom and where, which means there is no taboo!”
Lavrov-“Don’t Think That Your Geographical Location Will Save You”: Lavrov Shocked The U.S. With His Statement. This statement was made on Friday and has already caused outrage in Washington. The representatives of the American establishment sitting in the White House were speechless by Lavrov's statement in the most direct sense of the word. So, answering journalists' questions, the Russian Foreign Minister bluntly stated that the United States would not be able to stand aside in the event of the outbreak of a global conflict, which Washington is so diligently provoking. Its geographical position will not save the United States. On the contrary, the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which saved the United States during the Second and First World Wars, this time will not be the saviors of the United States but the executors of punishment. Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast “Russia’s submarine-launched Zircon hypersonic missile was the 1st underwater firing of a low-altitude weapon that flies at nine times the speed of sound. A Russian sub lurking a hundred miles off the American coast could nuke Washington in a flat minute Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington. Each of the missiles in service with the submarine is capable of carrying up to ten nuclear warheads. According to NetEase publication, Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project (according to other sources, it was an Akula project submarine), approached the US coast unnoticed.” A submarine of this class is capable of destroying most of the territory of the United States of America in minutes.
From the late 2019 forecast update from Deagel, Guide to Military and Civil Aviation The situation between the three great powers has changed dramatically. The only relevant achievement of the Western powers during the past decade has been the formation of a strategic alliance, both military and economic, between Russia and China. Right now the potential partnership between Russia and the European Union (EU) is dead with Russia turning definitively towards China. That was from the beginning the most likely outcome. Russia has been preparing for a major war since 2008 and China has been increasing her military capabilities for the last 20 years. Today China is not a second tier power compared with the United States. Both in military and economic terms China is at the same level and in some specific areas are far ahead. Six years ago the likelihood of a major war was tiny. Since then it has grown steadily and dramatically and today is by far the most likely major event in the 2020s. The ultimate conflict can come from two ways. A conventional conflict involving at least two major powers that escalates into an open nuclear war. A second scenario is possible in the 2025-2030 timeframe. A Russian sneak first strike against the United States and its allies with the new S-500, strategic missile defenses, Yasen-M submarines, INF Zircon and Kalibr missiles and some new space asset playing the key role. The sneak first strike would involve all Russian missile strategic forces branches (bombers and ground-based missiles) at the different stages of such attack that would be strategic translation of what was seen in Syria in November 2015. There was no report that the Russian had such a capability of launching a high precision, multiple, combined arms attack at targets 2,000+ kilometers away. Western intelligence had no clue. The irony is that since the end of the Cold War the United States has been maneuvering through NATO to achieve a position to execute a first strike over Russia and now it seems that the first strike may occur but the country finished would be the United States.
@@SuanLuangnever seen a bot cope this hard before. Pathetic. Even China has told Russia they cannot use nukes, as it would end in complete disaster for both Russia and China.
@@zeek8189 he makes predictions based on his knowledge and realism, the incompetence of American voters is not his fault
The ugly victory Professor talks about here seems like a sweet victory for Russia. They wouldn't want the entire Ukraine to begin with.
This man is a great analyst. Why can't American congress invite this figure to lecture them . Rather they thought fighting Russia would make them supreme in the world. Foolishness!!!!!
This bald man is an excellent angl0regime parrot. He wanted the west to take onto china first but US did exactly opposite. So, this bald man is an angry man crying foul everywhere😂😂😂
Great interview, thanks! Short and precise questions. Honest and full answers! Zero bullshit. So rare these days !
So you like bullshit. OKaayyy.
I wonder why they didn't talk about the economic crisis in the PRC. Or, the corruption problem in the PLA ??? That would have been a lot more interesting.
@@buildmotosykletist1987Oh yes the economic crisis in China with expected growth of 5% and an expected robust economy of USA improving by 1%? And yes the corruption of PLC with defence budget of less than a third of that of USA with more warships and airplanes coming out of China. Now you must be extremely happy.
@@buildmotosykletist1987 How about the corruption in the USA? Wouldn't be nice to deal with our problems first? We are led by a corrupt two party system that answers only to the billionaire funders. We borrow, print money and wage wars to enrich the military industrial complex. We wrecked Europe's economy by blowing up Nordstream. Germany is deindustrializing. Who needs enemies when you have the US as an "ally". And you're asking about China?
The guy is a Russian shill.
I have followed John mearsheimer for a long time. His political analysis, ideas and views felt very realistic and unbiased to me. It's just a dream that i have, someday the world political leaders will see the truth and work for a peaceful world.
That's what is happening right now, the leaders of the free, democratic countries are working for a more peaceful world. You have to break all dictatorships in every country and turn the into democracies, because in these countries always at least a part of the population is repressed, sometimes a very huge part and we cannot tolerate that. Why there are people of russia, iran, china etc. in jail for their opinion - or even worse, get executed? P.e. take russia where you can go to jail for 15 years if you say the word 'war' in public, it's crazy. We have to do everything to make sure that dictators don't win any war anywhere, which might break their domestic power, but also support the alternative actors within their country. Best thing that can happen in russia is a domestic uprising, some kind of civil war, maybe not an armed conflict, but at least mass protests that can evict putin from power.
God, I hope so. I live on Oahu, which is the home of Pearl Harbor and the Pacific Fleet. We are the headquarters of the entire Pacific military command. In the event of war with China, we will be among the first targets. If it's a nuclear war, everyone on this island will be vaporized in a flash of blinding light. Vote the warmonger, Joe F**king Biden, out!
It is so nice to hear from someone that is almost as brilliant as Putin speak to us in almost as eloquent words as Putin does.
This bald man is an excellent angl0regime parrot. He wanted the west to take onto china first but US did exactly opposite. So, this bald man is an angry man crying foul everywhere😂😂😂
@@afriedrich1452Trump's eloquent words: CHINA..CHI....NA..... CHINA.... CHI.....NA..😂😂😂😂
On a different youtube video from the start of 2022 this guy said there was NO POINT defending Kiev as the Russians would flatten Kiev to capture it, he's not as clever as he imagines.
The fact that Russians behaved badly in the initial phase of the war does not imply that China might not be able to prepare for war correctly. For instance Germany started WWII after being at peace for more than 20 years. And it invaded all Europe without problems. The Russian state is not the most efficient state in the world and Russia was not expecting to start a real war. The special operation was supposed to last a few weeks, the time needed to sign an agreement with Ukraine and the West. Americans did not allow such a peaceful conclusion and Russia found itself in a war. Nonetheless Russians took notice of the situation and slowly started to prepare for the fight. And it seems that they are going well now. But if China starts a war in Taiwan, China will be fully prepared in advance. And the Chinese are methodical and very efficient. If I would bet I think that if China starts a war it will be more like Germany. And there will be a big difference. At the time of WWII the industrial superpower of the time was USA. Today the industrial superpower of our time is China. If I were old Uncle Sam I would not play with fire. It might be the last time.
I'm pretty sure the wealthy WEF oligarchs will force Uncle Sam to commit suicide by nuclear war. Nuclear war with China helps them achieve their population reduction agenda for the whole world, and in record time. It eliminates all the useless eaters competing for resources they feel rightfully belong to them alone. And who could stop them? After 10 years, when the sun can shine through the dust clouds again, there will be too few survivors who can oppose them.
??????????????? What are you babbling about?
like he said at 16:55, times are different, it is very difficult to achieve surprise, or even move your troops in the open because of the intelligence assets we have today, in other words nowadays offensive operations are much more difficult to conduct. Also, amphibious operatations that china will have to conduct are much much harder than the on land operations that germany did.
Who said the SMO was meant to last a ‘few weeks’ ? Which Russian said that and when?
@@yellowwasprakija2869 The Russians were not prepared to fight a long war. They thought that the operation was going to conclude successfully in a few weeks. This is well known. They realized the real situation only after a while.
My profound appreciation and deep respect to this well-informed unemotional interviewer and to this eminent well-read professor for nourishing our grey matter adequately on world affairs!
The dark situation is thanks to America. Let this Ukraine war be a lesson to nations following blindly the interest of USA and promoting American tyranny.
As always, fascinating, insightful, and convincing!
that "ugly" victory seems reasonable, and arguably quite satisfying for the Russian in my opinion. It might be "ugly" for a pro-Ukrainian, but I don't think the professor is one of them.
The speaker has a very strong understanding of the situation and the issues involved. Excellent analysis!
the speaker is the world's foremost expert, a luminary, in international relations. Despite being a member of the elite US CFR, he and his realist ilk are not very at home in today's very non rational, highly ideological oriented US political situation. He would be more welcome in a rational, realist, non-ideological, meritocratic, technocratic expert led country like China today.
Not on Taiwan is delusional
It's NOT what US Intelligence Community saying !!
Very insightful conversation with Mr John Mearsheimer. 👍👍
This man is absolutely brilliant. He points out the facts right. 💯 ✅️
The winners are the whole world apart from Colective West. Get courage to say that ❤
I would suggest Australia and Japan are not war ready as well but China has the sheer numbers to wear any adversary down.
They are taking steps.
@@landontesar3070 yes australia have to wait till 2040 to get their 7 sub😂😂
The US has more experience in warfare than the Chinese, that’s what mearsheimer said. It doesn’t mean the US will win war against China in South China Sea (China’s backyard) The US lost the jungle warfare in Vietnam, China won against vietnam while the “experienced” USA lost. The US bombs and committed atrocities in Afghanistan for 20 years but still cannot defeat the Taliban who has much smaller military and less experienced warfare, all those countries the US had bombed were small and weak nations. China is an economic and military Superpower, a totally different beast. Also, The Chinese has stronger motivations to defend itself from the US aggression that came to Asia from thousands of kilometres away to provoke war with China. Just don’t underestimate China’s military capabilities, a Nuclear armed Superpower.
usa have more experience in war, but they lost most of the war to even a very poor country like vietnam and afghnistan, they start lots of conflict with tiny nation, they have never fought a war with a near peer enemy. modern warfare is much different it all about technology
Prof JM hit it spot on about the war in Ukraine ages before any of the analysts predicted it..🎉💯🎯👏
im curious though.... who ever said russia WANTED to take over the whole of Ukraine??
Peter Zeihan says this.
@@landontesar3070 Ahhh - then it's definitely wrong. The man talks a lot - says a lot of nothing -but is so ultra USA biased that he's hard to take seriously. He's good at taking info that people already know about but that's it. Putin has never said he wanted to take over the whole of Ukraine... so chances are he's telling the truth. I'd sooner listen to what Putin says than what someone else thinks.
Putin did, when he tried to take Kiev.
@@Black.Irish.Charmer.Explores Hardly. He had around 190,000 men there when they went into Kiev. There was never the intention to invade the whole country with so few. He was trying to get Ukraine to the negotiating table - which he managed by March 2022. The war would have ended there had it not been for the americans and british preventing peace talks. It was after this that the russians had to change strategy (which took a while).
The intention was there, but he misjudged the quality of the Ukrainian forces. He was figuring they were pre-Crimea quality, and that he would be able to steamroll over them, taking the whole of the country in 3 days (maybe a week). Ukraine's military is now a force to be reckoned with, no longer tired, corrupt Soviet leftovers. He learned this, to his embarrassment, and had to change plans on the fly.
In one point, Russia is going to push forward in one point and Ukraine is going fail totaly. This is going to make USA to think twice about confronting China which is much more strong from Russia militarily. So is going to be total lose for USA.
You are totally wrong, Ukraine is not fighting because of the US support. If they don't get anything from the US, they will still keep fighting with everything they have, and don't forget Poland, which is also a 40 M population country right next to Ukraine and in Poland EVERY political side, every party support Ukraine 100%, moreover they are lobbying for sending NATO troops to Ukraine right now! russia could 'win' this war one way: using nukes, but also China told them clearly that this would be a huge mistake.
@@gaborszabo3110😂😂you are more comical than comedian begginsky😂😂😂
@@pisablavatsky-cb3dd This is your opinion or something like that? If yes, if you're only capable writing things like that, next time maybe just shut the f up 😀😀😀
"In one point, Russia is going to push forward in one point and Ukraine is going fail totaly." when will this happen?
If the US are paying Ukrainians to keep fighting Russia, could you explain to me who paid the Afghanis to keep fighting the US?
With all due respect, but this analysis completely ignores the economic and industrial aspect of the conflict. The West doesn’t have material resources to support Ukraine even for the next year.
It is not in the best interests of CCP to rush to conquer and integrate Taiwan, which is once done means the end of one of most fundamental base of CCP ruling legitmacy.
Very well put together I can’t disagree!
The man who predicted the immediate failure of Ukraine. So many talking heads. So little sense. Talking as though he knows what he is talking about.
Ukraine failed. It wasn't immediate because Russia is fighting Europe, USA, Canada and Australia at the same time. The thing is, these countries can only send out a limited amount of weapons and ammunitions, once the limit is reached, the war is over. It was clear downfall of Ukraine during the NATOs members meeting in Lithuania, when UK PM said "Zelenski, stop asking for weapons"
seriously what chance ukraine going to win? weapon supplied from nato will run out soon.
Having peace for forty years is big problem?!?!
Always nice to hear the great realist John Mearsheimer talk about how he think geopolitic works. Artillery have been king for a long time but now we are in the drone age. We well see more drones and more at autonomous system that will be integrated down to pluton level.
China is surrounded by military-rusted countries including the US and self. Agreed with most of John’s analysis but with fishy resentment of China. The US is in front of China door’s step and plays righteous brothers with tracks record of everywhere it touched disaster happened. Isn’t it ironic? John.
Your statement is confusing and doesn’t make any sense?
This bald man is an excellent angl0regime parrot. He wanted the west to take onto china first but US did exactly opposite. So, this bald man is an angry man crying foul everywhere😂😂😂
@@peredavi2023, when were you?
Top Professor, no ones fool!!!
Interesting that in March 2022 this bloke said it would be all over in a few weeks. I wonder what excuse he uses or does he deny that video exists.
the war can become more low intensive. it can then last 10 years.
A PRC war against ROC will mostly impose a blockade. The DPP regime has foolishly deactivated the various nuclear power plants on ROC. As a result, the ROC is now totally dependent on external energy sources. The PRC can drive ROC to internal economic collapse by keeping a blockade to prevent energy resources from coming in.
And what happens if China sanctions the US by refusing to sell them anything, remember, China accounts for more than a trillion dollars of trade with the US, annually.
And the US can do the same to PROC. And that will be the literal first step for the US, to cut off all imports and exports to CCP. . . and can do so safely out of range of Chinese missiles.
I think Mr. Mearsheimer overestimates the difficulty China would have in taking Taiwan back by force. That said it'd of course be costly. Appreciate John, he's a colonizer but he's an honest one. Most colonizers aren't. Respect.
Mearsheimer is a US/Western exceptionalist tru and tru ... agree that he underestimate China's will. PLA navy is capable to blockade Taiwan and use their mobility to waste the resources of Taiwan i.e fuel and weapon stockpile follow by the main force to invade.
Im not aware of mearsheimer colonizing anything...
The wise thing for China to do is probably increase its nuclear arsenal to rule out the possibility of a direct US intervention..
@@khoroshoorange as a political realist, he doesn't factor in ethics, humanitarian concerns so his approach is exactly like a colonizer or the survival of the fittest aka great power politics. He uses how the US created a hegemony in the Americas with the Monroe Doctrine, Sphere of Influence foreign policy etc to apply to China and tell everyone this is how China will act in the future. Then the conflicts happen when two great powers clash at the border of their perceived sphere of influence. The problem right now is that US's perceived sphere of influence extend all the way to Russian border that led to the Ukraine war and in Asia it extends all the way to Chinese border that will trigger a Taiwan war in the future.
That';s like saying, I'm a big winner by not being involed in the war - lol
It is true that the PLA hasn’t fought a war for quite a long time. But when was the last time the Japanese and Australian armed forces went to war ? And I don’t mean a handful of Australian special forces going to Afghanistan or Iraq. I mean the deployment of a Japanese or Australian field army .
PMC are in it for the Glory. There was no glory in slowly grinding the Ukrainian troops that Kiev was constantly sending to Bahkmut. The Russian Army accountants were just focusing on the costs ratios and it was their best demilitarisation operation so far. So they would have love to make it run as long as Kiev was fixated on sending more soldiers. But from the Wagner point of view, with more firepower supplied by the Russian army they could have win that batle more quickly and with an overall smaller loss of men. Wagner was fighting the Ukrainian army but the Russian Army was fighting an attrition war with NATO. Of course their point of view on the best strategy was different.
Thank you! Mearsheimer is one of the very few last anchors in a thing called global reality. Thanks to the Western/Nato psychosis, it will be a miracle if we're all still alive a year from now.
This bald man is an excellent angl0regime parrot. He wanted the west to take onto china first but US did exactly opposite. So, this bald man is an angry man crying foul everywhere😂😂😂
Excellent interview n dissection
Always happy to hear some Mearsheimer! Thanks for the interview.
The professor always provides the top analysis. Rational, well balanced, insightful...
But he is simply wrong
@@nealbeard1 really insightful, thanks! I changed my mind about him. 🤣
thank you sooooooooooooooooo much for this interview.
John Mearsheimer is not qualified to say anything about china ... .
This was an excellent perspective and an extremely mature and thoughtful opinion.
Somewhat correct Mr. Mearsheimer… There is no solution between Russia and the current Ukraine government. I don’t see how the current government stays in power, whoever replaces them will either sue for peace or the remainder of Ukraine will cease to exist as a sovereign state. If the new Ukrainian government does not accept new territorial realities, Russia will destroy the new government. Terrible relations with the west is now a foregone conclusion, it didn’t need to be that way but Russia now sees the West as an unconditional enemy, they are likely not willing to try anymore as the trust level is below the “hope” threshold.
So China wins big. All that Russian gas an oil to China and India while Europe buys expensive American products and their economies wither.
if an election was held and pro-mainland China forces were elected ... the political system can itself choose to join China... the question is whether they will accept it or refuse.
pro-china and reunification are two completely different things. Former President Ma was Pro China, but he never considered reunification an option.
Like in Ukraine, when they worked out a deal between Ukraine and Russia in March of last year, goofy Boris went to Kiev and told Zelensky the US didn't want them to sign the deal, proxies don't get to decide.
Ever since Hong Kong crackdown, the number has been radically trending up. Now at over 75% against at this point. Well played Xi. 4D chess indeed.
If a Taiwanese government chooses to reunify with China then the US will just have that government overthrown.
There is an agreement Budapest Memorandum 1994. UK and USA signed it. Now what you gonna say. Why did you choose not to mention it? Cope?
He is obviously not experienced enough in global finance and military.
When John speak is like seeing a Cristal ball. His vision is as accurate as reality.
Don't underestimate China military capabilities, thus why the west always fire the blanks, they think other side doesn't have strategies n tacts
give that man a cigar.
It doesnt mean that China did not participate in war for last 40 to 50 years mean that they cant fight in the start. You have underestimated the Chinese!! US fought in Afganistan for 20 years and sudden quit, so what does it shows?? Please do not use the lenses of US to look at other countries!
Brilliant as ever, Prof
when Westerners joked that Chinese troops have no combat experiance, I'm going to be speechless...so they expect China to join more wars? it seems peace is a mistake for China. well, NATO also got no combat experiance, today Ukraine troops must fight better than US troops, because fighting with Russia is different than fighting with Taliban.
What was the US doing in Iraq then? Or Syria or Libya for that matter? Planting roses?
@@dmfitzsimcounter insurgency doesn’t translate well into conventional warfare. A lot of veterans went into Ukraine and left after they realized they had drones, artillery and ISR as well.
@@jordonstewart2092 fair points, but Iraq was a full scale invasion along with Afghanistan. But then they morphed into counter insurgency as part of the occupation. I think it’s a moot point regarding the type of combat experience, the phrase “Ukraine must fight better than the US……….” would be more accurate if “better” was replaced by “differently”.
@@dmfitzsim You gotta remember the state of Iraq prior to the war. The UN sanctions, the Iraqi Kurdish war and its economy was crap. The media did a good job hyping them up but at the end of the day. It was a mismatch.
@@dmfitzsim- they were against the defenseless opponents with full air superiority at the US/NATO side. Against major opponents like Russia or China, such air superiority by the US/NATO won't happen, thus we witness the meat grinding process in Ukraine!
Prof is always right at analysis.
This guy is dangerously convincing ❤
dangerouis yes, but convincing not always so much, Remember that Mearsheimer is an ivory tower academic whose real life experience in the Vietnam War is way back but still potentially useful, this continues to colour his thinking while the world has moved on in terms of world governance and economica realations. I am not convinced that China is a net beneficiary of the Russo-Ukrainen war. Moreover, Mearsheimer assumes that the world is divided into two great powers, China (with Russia a junior partner) and the United States and its allies, I am convinced that Europe will pull up its pants and defend its own interests independent of its North American partners, how that pans out for Ukraine remains to be seen but Poland and the Baltics/Scandinavians will drive the European security push so that Russia's grab of Finnish territory and ethnic cleansing does not occur in Ukraine as it did in part to Finland and particularly the Ingrians.
That's exactly why it's dangerous. You probably see charisma as a trait equal to honesty and being right. People should be wary of charismatic people, because they're very well capable of presenting even completely flawed ideas as plausible.
His analysis is pretty good. On the tainwan invasion issue he thinks like an egghead. Hard to imagine China conducting a medieval style amphibious invasion while Australia and Japan pick off the invading force. More likely China would use missiles then air bombardment. They also would aim missiles at any country that attack their invading force after Taiwan was destroyed by missiles and air. Not to mention knocking out the emp of Taiwan. That’s just modern war
🤣
Emp? You think China will use nuclear weapons on Taiwan?😁
Always a fan of John. I admire the cold and emotionless way he tears down a complicated international affair into simple elements.
Maybe we should go to auction for the territory, the highest bidder get the land, and the losing side will get compensated. You know, it is not long ago that territories are considered to be sacred and not negotiable.
A pin-point analysis. I think my former "Soviet Military Policy" professor, the late Lt. Gen. William Odom, ret.,would agree, were he still among us to witness current events and to advise American foreign policymakers.
Good luck to the US sustaining let alone winning a war that is 12000Kms away in Taiwan. Just keeping up supply will be enough of an obstacle by itself. It would be crazy but then again, there are a lot of crazies in the Whitehouse that are promoting this conflict.
It is reasonable and objective analysis .I could not recognize the interviewed one
China is the greatest catcher in this war
The same logic with regards to what he said about China (cost and reason for reluctance of action) is probably what the Neocons used in the case of Ukarine when they assessed the likely Russian reaction (or the lack of) as they instigated Maiden and nudged Ukarine ever closer to NATO. Their argument had always been that Russia will consider it too costly to have a war with the West that they will just have to swallow whatever the provacations whole and complain but not do much about it. The same exact thing is happening in Taiwan. It is very clear that US establishement is nudging towards a war in Taiwan (whether knowingly or unknowingly), the general policies and actions are leading to that conclusion, not just "a few loose cannons". It is also quite clear that the China is seriously preparing for war as we see that as the most likely, almost inevitable outcome if the trajectory of US foreign policy and to a larger extent development in politics remain in its current direction.
Great to hear from Mearsheimer as he is one of the very few voices worth listening to on U.S. foreign affairs. I wonder though if he is correct about the future with respect to Taiwan not declaring independence with the support of the U.S. administration. My reason for saying this is because this is almost exactly like the situation with the Ukraine and its desire to join NATO. Many voices, including Mearsheimer`s, declared years ago that pursuing this would be a disaster for Ukraine. In spite of this, the U.S. administration under Biden has pursued this option. As predicted, this has turned out to be a disaster and I suspect Ukraine has been pushed into this by BIden. BIden's activites in Ukraine, when he ws VP under Obama, probably have a lot to do with this as he was put in charge of U.S. foreign policy there by Obama and that resulted in a lot of turmoil. Mearsheimer is a realist but I don't believe those who set U.S. foreign policy are but rather driven by the desire for the U.S. to retain a dominant position in the world. I also wonder if, from China's point of view, this isn't the right time to up the ante so to speak by increasing pressure on Taiwan. This will put the U.S. in a very difficult position where it will have two major points of conflict to deal with. Biden is a disaster and not just for the U.S.
NATO is the enemy of the majority of the world's population. They have had quite enough of American imperialism and neocolonialism. Blinken's boomerang sanctions have done little to weaken Russia and a lot to weaken the industrial economies of Western Europe. Indeed, the boomerang sanctions have accelerated the pace of de-dollarization. The more we sanction, the more the rest of the world outside of the West de-dollarizes. This is a stupid, dangerous game. Anybody but Biden in '24!
Ugh.. there is only a disagreement over the PLA's fighting experience. Who would have thought that an army WITHOUT an air force nor Navy was able to defeat the US & UN forces in the Korean Peninsula!!??? Just a reminder that the US & UN forces has the logistical support of everything including from the US bases in Japan!! And yet.. the US was driven back to the 38th!!!! And the extensive PLA military exercise already makeup for the no real war experience!!! Moreover, if the 20 years Afghan war have given the US military the necessary experience.. than the US military would NOT be driven out of Afghanistan and they have to chickened our under the cover of darkness!!!😅
Interesting take. Different from Stephen Koltin, and Peter Z but who knows.
American geopolitical analysts have been thinking about war in Europe against Russia for 75 years, and it shows. On Ukraine he’s excellent. But it’s frightening to see even Mearsheimer assuming that war against China would be basically the same as war against Russia: that it would stay contained.
i ve seen him say otherwise
The Chinese could blockade Taiwan, the Island would be out of food in a matter of weeks. Fifth column forces would play a major role in securing important economic resources. Every single American on the island would be a target. Finally, at least half of Taiwan population would not fight, the military is having trouble getting the manpower it needs. And more Taiwanese live and work in China than are in the military, that is also where the food comes from.
It's doubtful their blockade could succeed
@@user-yb9dg4xm4d wishful thinking, Herr no content troll bot.
In a multipolar world, the first two nations who go to war with each other, will lose.
"Wagner and the russian military did not have a healthy relationship." No duh! Another brilliant exposition.
Isn’t it amazing how no matter what happens Mearsheimer presents Putin as the genius winner
You're right! Isn't it ovbious that Russia has lost this war already. It's ovious to me.
Because he is!
@@lukesteers81Eh? Russia is still holding on to large amount of Ukraine despite Western did the unexpected and flooded Ukraine with western weapons. The UA counter-offensive had stalled and the West is considering setting their moral standards aside to supply UA with cluster bombs. Objectively speaking Putin have done quite well to reacting to different unknown elements that came to play.
Being on the payroll of putin, totally understandable...
They aren't setting any moral standards aside. The Americans use cluster munitions themselves. Why do you think they have them to give? Also, Russia has been using them since the beginning of the war. None of the 3 parties involved here signed the relevant treaty which makes cluster munitions a moral issue, so none of them should have an issue, moral or otherwise, with them.
So insightful what knowledge. The Professor really knows his stuff. A pleasure to listen to such a debate. Thanku.
Really, when was the last time America entered a war against a modern military? They can't beat even so called backward nations. Have you notice that American industry can't even produce shells for Ukraine, hello. The only people that want a war is American leadership. China doesn't Taiwan doesn't. The good news is that when the elections in Taiwan happen next year the present government will be out the door and sanity will prevail.
Mr Miersheimer leaves too many unanswered questions, i.e. 1) what if the KMD party wins the next election and takes Taiwan into an alliance with PRC ? 2) What would be left of Taiwan and it´s economy in the event of war with the PRC ?, 3) Given China´s hypersonic missiles and a similar air defence capability to that of Russia, how would US supply Taiwan with arms and ordenance over the 12,000 plus kms which seperate it from the island ?. He also assumes that US will maintain it´s global primacy viz viz PRC/Russia in the medium to long term, which might be a big ask, given the BRICs alliance and weakening of the USD as a global reserve currency.
Well - he is getting ALL of that WRONG !
The US may just want to leverage the Ukraine war to rebuild its industrial base with a real world large war reference.
No. The US empire just needs to die. Post haste...
Not sure how China's a winner being tied down to a junior partner that's mischievous like North Korea -- a real wag-the-doh situation even worse than that between the U.S. and Israel! I respect Mearsheimer but do believe he's wrong here...China's freedom of action actually appears to be more constrained now, given how Russia's provided Europe, especially Central and Eastern Europe, to acquiesce fully to American demands to coalesce against a Chinese Renaissance. And let's not forget that Mearsheimer is against China himself and fully believes in doing literally anything (including biological-chemical warfare if need be; see his admission in one of them "Intelligence Squared" debates right here on KZhead) to stymie China, so putting out misinformation making China seem larger than life in order to lull the Chinese into complacency while sounding the alarm for his fellow Americans wouldn't be beyond him to do....
Those oblasts don’t seem to be very excited in being liberated by anyone.
12:59 balance of power! US spent nearly 800B, the EU spent 250B, Russia spent 60B and the Chinese spent 250B. Balance do not look like this.
I would recommend Sun Tzu Art of War to anyone who want to understand the Chinese mentality. It is at complete odds with the Western gunho way of waging wars but presents a much more pragmatic view on warfare and how the heavy expenditure could cripple a nation. China has already demonstrated this belief with its diplomatic policies with BRI so i doubt it would do something so out-of-character over Taiwan.
Excellent interview, Mearsheimer is a legend
Gosh. Quality content.
7:00 Westerner's define success one way, Russians another. Western analysts should probably listen more to independent media. Putin NEVER said he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine.
Well, I'm not sure the argument about peace time military holds water for China vs Taiwan conflict. Taiwan is 15 (!) times smaller than Ukraine, likely even Russia could obliterate it with just rockets and airplanes and then do the amphibious operation. Now compare the number of rockets/missiles of all kinds between Russia and China. That's the answer
another is half of those taiwainese do not want war with china.
The question I would have would be what comes AFTER the frozen conflict. Here, I would imagine that NATO countries and USA will opt to ramp up their defense industry, which will once again, shift the balance of power unfavorably against the Russians. Ukraine may no longer exist as a threat in the short-term, but there will be increasing danger with all the other NATO countries. This is not good news for anyone. Are we likely to rebuild a framework for peace especially in regards to nukes?
frozen conflicts in moldova and georgia have dragged on since the early 1990s. but yes, it does seem the nato powers, russia, and presumably china will all be dramatically ramping up military production for the foreseeable future
@@meshzzizk The future outlook looks like it can be stable, but everyone would be on eggshells because of the increased odds of nuclear escalation. The Russians would need to resort to nuclear deterrence and coercion because their conventional deterrence and power will no longer be sufficient over time.
@@rageburst Russia has positive growth or very slightly negative, that can't be said for anywhere in Europe and many economists are predicting a US recession as well, don't bet too much on whose economy is going to collapse. The bigger problem is that soon the only tool left for the US will be their military, sanctions already don't work.
You mean Putin, right? The "Russian people" don't care.