#kentuckyderby2024
Preview of the 2024 Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs. The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby.
00:00 Introduction
00:47 2024 Kentucky Derby Field
02:49 Kentucky Derby Late Pace 2024
03:23 Honor Marie 2024 Kentucky Derby Contender
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Good luck everybody. Here's to a safe trip for all.
I am going to voice my Kentucky Derby pick, and please forgive me if I am a bit cryptic. My Derby pick's name happens to match the title of my all-time favorite Rod Stewart song. I just listened to it a couple of times (via my head-phones) and I did get a happy tear. All of you know the song - and my pick. Cheers and happy betting times to all!
I think Fierceness is going to have issues from post 17. I don't just look at post position but horses around him. Might be used early and wide for much of the race. He's has two horses right to his outside that will try to run out of the gate for position. Track Phantom will be gunning from his post. Brad Cox had two entries with speed ( Just A Touch /Encino) that from the middle of the pack will be up there early. Especially to set up Catch Freedom's late run. Dornoch obviously will be gunning from post 1. Sierra Leone in my opinion might have issues being stuck on the inside and have too much to do late if he even gets a chance. I'm sensing a fast pace where mid pack / closers with the best trips come up late. I'm bias about Forever Young being from the Sunday Silence line but UAE Derby winners haven't fared well. Hopefully he gets a piece. Catching Freedom will get the pace he wants, I think we'll be sitting 4 off the rail waiting for his spot to circle around horses. The same goes for Honor Marie who loves Churchill. Was only a length from Catching Freedom. Off track would be a concern. Finally I smell Coach might be getting Just Steel ready at the right time. I think he won't be as close pace wise as he was in the Arkansas Derby. For some reason I'm getting a Charismatic vibe with him. So with the strong speed pace. I want those strong 3/8 closers. Chasing Freedom / Forever Young / Honor Marie / Just Steel will be in my boxes.
A guy who thinks almost exactly like I do. I have the same 4 plus the 2 favs in my box, except I’ll be substituting Domestic Product for Forever Young whom I’m only putting in for show in all my Tri’s. Plus money on the nose of Honor Marie.
I think track phantom and honor Marie are the top two. The blinkers make the difference on phantom.and Honor Marie is prime for a huge run. Domestic product is my long shot play as well
I enjoy your DRF commentaries. You do an excellent job; thank you. My key is Honor Marie. i’ll be using him in my exact triples and supers!👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾
Good Luck and have fun on the Derby.
The most under rated horse in this field will be the winner #11 Forever Young, he s primed to take a step forward too. This horse is special .
Enjoy the Derby and Oaks
He’s almost a toss for me, but I still have him in for show in my Tri wagers. I think that a jockey unfamiliar with Churchill Downs and the pacing required to reserve enough horse for the long stretch run that will have many horses rushing for position after that final turn, and he’ll be outrun to the wire by a few who will already be in front of him who are faster as well as those who will also be closing who have stamina. But good luck!
@@bbbailey47 See thts smart thinking and I d agree with u 98% of the time but this horse and jockey are 5 for 5 and watching him ho 4 wide around the whole Dubia racetrack then running the fastest final 400m ever in the UAE derby was not only eye opening it says this horse can run all day and he was even geared down at the wire. For a 3 year old to do tht is not only unheard of its down right special. Now hes coming in 3rd off the layoff and should produce an even better race is just crazy to think about. Out of all these horses he checks ever box for me and my figs have him just under Fiercenesses perfect trip in the Florida derby ..Either way I hope u have sucess and have a great and profitable derby day
@@derbyologist you too, thank u for everything u do
Great video! I am also picking Fierceness. Underneath I will go with Catching Freedom, Honor Marie and Domestic Product. The #2 will not be a factor. The #10 and #11 will extend the Japan streak. Good Luck to ALL! Safe trip to the jockeys and their mounts!
Have fun with the Derby and cash some tickets.
Amen to the safe ride for the Jockey's and Good clean safe run for all the Horses today on the Churchill Downes track for every race today and this season! Rider's up! May this 4th May, Starwars Day, empower you all with THE FORCE to get it done! May the Force be with you all! ❤🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🏇🏼🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🏆🎊🥂🍾🕺🏻💃🏻🎉
If there was a curse it would have been on the extinct auxiliary gate. Colts since, just haven't had the speed or the maturity to maneuver around a field of 20. Fierceness, has it all if he brings his A game, curse or no curse. Cover your bases I say - sprinkle some Holy Water on #17 to be sure! Good show!
Looking forward to the Derby. Enjoy the Oaks and Derby.
Fierceness, Chasing Freedom.
Excellent! Thank you.
Fierceness. I will be doing the 2-day daily double.
Fierceness is the one I'm betting on
Also have to consider Horses that thrive at Churchill. I know Mystic Dan loves this track and has won here. So many contenders if Fierceness doesn't fire.
The curse of Apollo was put to rest with Justify winning, I was disappointed you went with the favorite, even if he wins I can’t play him. I’m going with Honor Marie, sprinkle Just Steele and a flyer on Track Phantom. If the fav wins I lose in any race but especially the Derby
My top 4 horses are Forever young, Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Domestic Product who has beaten Fierceness in a previous race. #11,15,17, 2. Going to box these 4 horses and then wheel these 4 horses over the 4.6.7.8.14 for the triple and super. Good luck to all.
Enjoy the Kentucky Derby
Give me Sierra Leone, Dornoch
Endlessly honor marie resilience encino my four pick
Fierceness’ BSFs from the BCJ and FL Derby are at least 10 points higher than any of the contenders’ highest BSF. If he runs his race, he’s long gone. But he’s a vulnerable chalk. Fierceness is giving me Always Dreaming vibes although AD was not a 2YO champ or BC Juvie champ. Both horses look similar and not very big which is fine especially if it’s sloppy. Same jockey and trainer connection. Won the FL Derby. Always Dreaming benefitted from a much better post at No. 5. Then an ideal Derby trip. Baffert is not in this so who is the most winningest trainer in this race? It’s Pletcher. And Johnny V has won this race thrice (2011, 2017, 2020). Would’ve been four if Medina Spirit didn’t get DQ’d a year later. Got to look at the proven names. Post position #15 is a good one. American Pharoah broke from there. There’s a little space between it and No. 16 thanks to the auxiliary gate. And beware, Domestic Product has the fastest closing 3/8ths but it came from a very slow pace. Domestic Product is a good-looking animal like Sierra Leone. Big and looks strong but will they get there late? I don’t like betting closers. Domestic Product does have the claim of finishing ahead of Fierceness. The only horse in the Derby field to claim that. Affirmed and Sunday Silence had tactical speed over Alydar and his greatest son, Easy Goer. I want the horse leading already at the 1 mile pole. Not coming too late like Zandon and Angel of Empire did. Horse racing newbies are easily fooled by closers/plodders when having tactical speed is always better to have. Because they can create their own luck. If Fierceness runs a :47 and feels like running next Saturday, he’s winning it by open lengths. But I repeat, he is very, very vulnerable as he’s shown to lose races as the 1-5 chalk and has never won two races in a row. A paper tiger champion. But he’s clearly the fastest horse in it when he does feel like running that day. I might put a show bet on Domestic Product over Sierra Leone instead. The lesser regarded Chad Brown horse. Both are big, handsome horses. But it looks like Brad Cox is loaded this year as Catching Freedom, Just A Touch, and Encino have realistic chances to win. If a horse gets scratched late like what happened in 2022, Epic Ride enters. Watch out for another No. 21 Rich Strike deja vu.
@ThePatman1980 His times in the races he lost are lower than the par numbers for the rest of the field.
I like resilience and dornoch
5 horse box super 2-4-6-7-14 Counting on Fierceness bouncing from the 17 post.
Boom - Good Luck on the Derby.
Any stats on how many closers have won the derby? In years past I had Strike the Gold and Monackos, nothing more exciting than to see a horse that was last get shot out of a cannon and win, but more frequently someone can slow down the pace and steal it
mage
Catching freedom and stronghold.
Like: your on the money, love the stats......
I like fierceness alot but how can you leave out sierra leone I think they start moving earlier than usual but I like # 17❤
@lenordbrazil9580 No, they will all start at very nearly the same time as the stalls all open in unison.
@@vernonfrance2974 I mean making your move earlier
@@lenordbrazil9580 👍
Hey my buddy i love the hoodie look .Go derby #2/4-17-5
Good Luck Saturday.
Catching freedom mystic dan track phantom
LETS GOOOOO 🏇
Get to work - Take Vegas to the House - come back with a Casino
@@derbyologist that’s what I do! 😎🔥
Forever Young
Enjoy the Derby and Oaks
Forever young has tons of heart, too many people are sleeping on this horse, go back and look at his last 2 races, he refused to loose, If he gets a good trip he will win for fun, Cannot judge him by previous attemps from UAE horses.
Im going for a boom 💥 teack phantom to win Ex box 12,4,7,8 17 tri and super
Box Them Up and let it Ride.
I have a prediction. T O password full goes apey. Fractions are way too fast, setting it up for a deep closer. We might even have another Rich strike moment. The only thing that might change that is rain.
I’ve been on Sierra Leone for a while. I also liked Fierceness. After the post draws I’m thinking about tossing both of them. I’m just not sure who I’d use instead. Maybe Catching Freedom & Encino.
Enjoy the Races Friday and Saturday.
I like Fierceness too ! " Speed Kills " ! As long as he gets a quick enough start out the Gate ( Like in the Florida Derby )..... Johnny V. Will figure it out !
@willmorrisusa Johnny V. has only figured it out three times. The other times he was riding in the race he failed to figure it out.
@@vernonfrance2974 I know ! You want him to win Every Time ! Irad Ortiz 0-7 & not even a 2nd or 3rd. So Johnny V. Not a Great Jockey ?
@@willmorrisusaJohn Velazquez, 52. I don't want him to win at all because the payoffs will be higher if the favorite, Fierceness, does not win. I am just commenting about the numerous times Velazquez did not have it figured out. He rode Fierceness to a disappointing third-place finish in the Holy Bull in February. He is an excellent jockey and won Eclipse awards for outstanding jockey back in 2004 and 2005. Irad Ortiz Jr., 32, captured his Fifth Eclipse as Outstanding Jockey this January. Ortiz Jr. set an earnings record at $39.1 million, won a career-best 366 races. He will be on Domestic Product 30-1 which will start in post 15 while Fierceness will be the morning line favorite in post 17. Both riders are natives of Puerto Rico. The main thing is that all return safely.
11-2
The horses who got the best draw are Just A Touch (No. 8) and Honor Marie (No. 7). Now it won’t matter for Honor Marie since he lacks early speed but lucky No. 7 is always good to have. Post 8 has produced 9 winners and Mage was No. 8 last year. So I was watching Angel of Empire and Mage’s final prep prior to the Derby. I made a mistake on AoE. Everyone on KZhead liked him. But the Arkansas Derby had a slow 6F at 1:12. While Mage came from a 6F of 1:10. Then made the earlier move than AoE to win the Derby. Angel of Empire started way too slow while Mage was more assertive earlier. I was really considering Fierceness because he runs :47s for a half. He’s not headstrong. I’m thinking he’s Always Dreaming Part 2 while Sierra Leone is Zandon Part 2. SL’s closing time was not that fast. I would prefer a horse in his final prep to be leading at the top of the stretch like Mage did in the FL Derby before Forte caught him. Not another plodder like Zandon/Angel of Empire. If it rains or the track becomes hard from drying, it will be even worse for SL running on the inside. The rail is going to be bad if it rains at Louisville prior to the Derby. Dornoch is done for. He’s not winning from there. Both Fierceness coming from the winless No. 17 and Sierra Leone from No. 2 did not have a great draw. Moreso for Fierceness since he does have early speed. I do believe the pace won’t be that fast as the previous ones, but if it is, Fierceness will be behind like 4-5 lengths from the pace leader. The question is how wide will he be? Every speedy horse is inside of him. My two horses in Stronghold and Resilience did not have a great draw either. Stronghold seems like an off the pace type. The post positions I look at are 5, 7, and 8. Those are the ones that usually win. Silver Charm, War Emblem, Funny Cide, California Chrome, and Always Dreaming were No. 5. Street Sense, Justify, and Mandaloun were No. 7. Barbaro, Mine That Bird, and Mage were No. 8. Since 1990, No. 5 produced 6 winners and No. 8 produced 5 winners. No. 5 winners since 1990 1991: Strike the Gold 1997: Silver Charm 2002: War Emblem 2003: Funny Cide 2014: California Chrome 2017: Always Dreaming No. 8 winners since 1990 1990: Unbridled 1994: Go For Gin 2006: Barbaro 2009: Mine That Bird 2023: Mage No. 7 produced Street Sense and Justify but Maximum Security broke from No. 7 as well before his DQ. Medina Spirit broke from No. 8 before his DQ a year later. I’m not high on Catalytic at No. 5 but I am higher on Just A Touch at No. 8. The problem was his final 3/8ths were not very good at well over :38 and the Blue Grass prep has only produced one winner since 1996 which was Street Sense in 2007. A Blue Grass winner hasn’t won the Derby since 1991. Red flag on Sierra Leone. My Derby Top 10 Prior To The Draw 1. Sierra Leone 2. Fierceness 3. Stronghold 4. Resilience 5. Catching Freedom 6. Honor Marie 7. Forever Young 8. Just Steel 9. Just A Touch 10. Endlessly My Derby Top 10 After The Draw 1. Fierceness 2. Just A Touch 3. Sierra Leone 4. Catching Freedom 5. Honor Marie 6. Just Steel 7. Stronghold 8. Resilience 9. Forever Young 10. Catalytic I keep looking at that 110 Beyer and he’s being ridden by a jockey who has won this race multiple times. And he’s coming from the Florida Derby, the best prep of the last 7 years. Fierceness is one of those horses who can either win the race easily or completely run off the board. It sucks Fierceness is breaking from No. 17. Moments before he drew it, I was hoping he wouldn’t get it but he did. But there’s always a first time for everything. Some horse will eventually win from No. 17. Why not next week? He’s clearly the fastest horse in the field but offers the worst value and the winless No. 17 makes his value even worse flashing more red flags 🚩🚩. If it’s a jockey’s race, I trust John Velazquez the most even though I personally don’t have the greatest betting history on him dating back to the mid 90s. But Johnny V has won the most Derbies among the other jockeys in this race. Then I probably would look to trust Flavien Prat (Catching Freedom) and Florent Geroux (Just A Touch) even though both jocks benefitted their Derby win from a DQ. Catalytic enters my top 10 simply because he got the No. 5 post. He did run 2nd in the Florida Derby similar to Mage last year but he was well beaten by 13.5 lengths. I like Jose Ortiz. His best finish was with Good Magic. Finishes behind another Justify horse again? I think Just A Touch won the draw for me. His pops will enter the HoF this summer and Justify won the Derby and Preakness in the slop. If you’re a Kobe Bryant fan, bet No. 8 in the Year of ‘24.
A technicality concerning post position numbers is the fact that if a horse is scratched those outside of him will keep their same numbers but move over to the left one stall. So those moved over are NOT in the same stall as their number would lead one to believe. For example, if #9 is scratched, #10 will leave from what is actually the #9 stall, #11 will leave from the #10 stall and so forth. From the AE's #21 will be added to the field and will leave from the #20 stall. To me this throws a monkey wrench in to our theory that the #17 stall has never sent forth a winner. The stall may have but it was just that the number was different. The good thing is that they got rid of the auxiliary gate. That was expensive to do but not nearly as expensive as it would be to make the race truly fair by using a mile and a quarter straight course eliminating the need to fight to get to the inside of the turn to "save ground."
How about a flightline moment part 2 with fierceness winning by 6
For me it will be 47
That race was a few weeks ago.
When it comes to the kentucky derby, always fade a Repole horse and a Chad Brown horse, at least on top. They are cursed or something.
Hi sir. Do you remember me from last year? I HIT MAGE NATIONAL TREASURE AND ARC ANGELO all documented....my picks are in for 2024. Ready?
Yes, Enjoy the Kentucky Derby.
@@derbyologist too much speed on the inside for FIERCENESS to pull off another wire to wire. I feel 17 is the strongest horse but I never take under 4 to 1 favorites. With 17 aside, DOMESTIC PRODUCT cant be ignored. UNDEFEATED in 5 races with the best jockey in the world on its back. HONOR MARIE from the 7 spot and JUST STEEL to round out my top 3. 17 15 7 6 - top 4 horses. How you play them is up to you
My exacta 2 -7
Enjoy the Derby and Oaks
#8 wheel top / bottom
Enjoy the Derby and Oaks.
How about the Kentucky Oaks Preview….
One thing that needs to be mentioned is that the last winner of the Derby from the #1 Post ended up being eaten. His name was Ferdinand.
Well that is something to consider - Dornoch may not want to be eaten so maybe he will not try to win.
@@derbyologist Fortunately, since the seller's of US horses of note now have a contract provision that assures that the horse can be bought back before it is done for. It was Ferdinand, of course, which suffered this fate in Japan but a horse which is the only one to beat two Triple Crown Winners in the same race, Exceller, was consumed in Finland. I am pretty sure he would have come under the Ferdinand inspired contract provisions as well.
Just a Touch Honor Marie exacta Box
Box them Up.
7,11
Can fierceness get the mile and a quarter
We will see on Saturday, I think he can if the fractions are not too fast.
150th derby = 15 winner.
🏇
Actually starting to think the 7 horse...seen alot of Mary references in the news lately...his prep race was solid also...the 15 coming after over 8 weeks, we are talking 102 years ago...sneaky slow tampa derby almost a toss...the 7 also won already at churchill...tc.
17-9-4-7 Fierceness by daylight.
Good Luck on the Kentucky Derby.
2YO Champs Who Won The Derby Since 1984…. 2007: Street Sense 2015: American Pharoah 2016: Nyquist 3 for 40 = 7.5% BC Juvenile Champs Who Won The Derby Since 1984… 2007: Street Sense 2016: Nyquist 2 for 40 = 5% I don’t believe Fierceness is as good as Easy Goer, Holy Bull, and Point Given who all lost the Derby as the chalk, but he may not need to against this crop full of plodders with sub-100 Beyers. He’s not racing against Sunday Silence. It’s his race to lose but will he do so?? The last six Derbies have been some weird ones resulting with an asterisk *️⃣ or looking like flukey outliers. 2018: Justify is no longer “undefeated” 2019: Maximum Security got disqualified 2020: Authentic won in a pandemic 2021: Medina Spirit got disqualified 2022: Rich Strike at 81-1 2023: Mage another unraced 2YO It really hasn’t been that formful since 2018 when the last chalk won it. We’ve had a couple of disqualifications and a Derby held in September because of a pandemic. Prior to their Derby wins, Rich Strike and Mage only won their maiden. Rich Strike entered the Derby with an 89 Beyer and 4th place finish in the Jeff Ruby. Mage ran a 94 BSF in Florida. Just when you start to think it’s chalky, it never does. I’m betting on Fierceness but I’m not betting only on him. You better have him covered with other horses. Be completely foolish to single him knowing how weird it’s gotten lately and he’s lost twice as the heavy chalk. The best horse doesn’t always win. Ask Holy Bull and Point Given fans that. Ask Epicenter fans. Fierceness Domestic Product?? 👀 Sierra Leone Best horses came out of the Holy Bull and not the Risen Star that had Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Resilience, and Track Phantom? Then again, Hades did lose badly to Encino in the Lexington.
2023’s asterisk comes from all the scratches. That was just a weird as the other years. The vets are the biggest thing standing in the way of Fierceness winning the Derby.
Much of the time, the best/fastest horse doesn’t win the KD. I’m looking for a late runner or at least a presser to win.
Closers have done well the past few years with some fast paces three of the last four years.
Could there possibly be a Concern in this year’s Derby? I think so! Here’s a race for you to watch: the 1994 Arkansas Derby when Concern won at 20-1 and I won $6000 that day to the shock of my fellow bettors at the OTB in NYC! He also won the BC Classic that year! kzhead.info/sun/Y6efg66maqZ_a4U/bejne.htmlsi=CWV1_oiLMKktof7x
That was a nice hit, time for another score.
2-4-7-8-that’s my picks ex and tri
Good Luck Saturday - Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie
I seen par or below. Don't believe it. I think it has to be fast because they have to pressure Fierceness to stop him from running away clean. He is fastest horse
17-19-1-7
thorped anna preakness
McPeek is confident - should be a good Oaks.
@@derbyologist then she wins the preakness
❤❤🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪🇻🇪
Encino has been progressively improving his speed figures. He took well to the dirt in his last race, and I pick him to be the upset winner of the derby. I pick Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Just A Touch underneath to round out the superfecta.
Good Luck on Derby and Oaks.
I'd tell everybody who I was going to bet on, but then you all might start betting that too and there would be less money for me, so I'm not going to say. Sorry.
Don't Count out Encino!!
Encino drew a good post. Good Luck Saturday
I liked Encino too - sadly, he was pulled out of the Derby today.
@@rivaridge7211 that hurts
@@rivaridge7211 can he race in the Preakness
@@chrisdenney2915 Oh, I haven't heard any of the details as to why he was pulled out of the Derby - I hope we can see this good horse at the Preakness, or Belmont.
🇧🇧Thanks for noticing that #5 Catalytic, may pull off a "Mage" if those who actually pay attention, will view and preview this race with open minds🤓