The Fermi Paradox Has An Incredibly Simple Solution
It’s possibly the most famous question in all of science - where is everyone? Join us today for deep dive into Fermi Paradox. 🌏 Get exclusive NordVPN deal here ➵ NordVPN.com/coolworlds It’s risk free with Nord’s 30 day money-back guarantee!✌
The Fermi Paradox has been a topic of keen debate amongst scientists, astronomers and the rest of us for more than seven decades. We can't resist the urge to speculate about aliens! But what is the paradox even really about? What explanations have been offered? Today, we explore this famous question, and offer a mind-shifting explanation.
Written and presented by Prof David Kipping.
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::References::
► Jones, E. B. 1985, "Where Is Everybody? An Account of Fermi's Question": sgp.fas.org/othergov/doe/lanl...
► Hart, M. H. 1975, "Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth", QJRAS, 16, 128: ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/197...
► Tipler, F. J. 1980, "Extraterrestrial intelligent beings do not exist", QJRAS, 21, 267: ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/198...
► Wright, J. T., Kanodia, S. & Lubar, G. 2018, "How Much SETI Has Been Done? Finding Needles in the n-Dimensional Cosmic Haystack", AJ, 156, 260: arxiv.org/abs/1809.07252
► Gray, R. H. 2015, "The Fermi Paradox is Neither Fermi's Nor a Paradox", Astrobiology, 15, 195: arxiv.org/abs/1605.09187
► Freitas, R. A. Jr. 1985, "There is no Fermi Paradox", Icarus, 62, 518: ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/198...
► Sandberg, A., Drexler, E., Ord, T. 2018, "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox": arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
::Music::
Music licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], Artlist.io, via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (creativecommons.org/licenses/..., or with permission from the artist.
► Brad Hill - Echoes of Yesterday (0:00) [open.spotify.com/track/4AfA4T...]
► Brad Hill - Circle (5:22) [open.spotify.com/track/5ahoF1...]
► Falls - Life in Binary (9:38)
► Brad Hill - The Great Alchemist (14:08) [open.spotify.com/album/0sfu5x...]
► Brad Hill - There Is But One Good (19:03) [open.spotify.com/track/1vlxAs...]
► Joachim Heinrich - Y (25:01)
::Chapters::
00:00 Introduction
01:22 A Brief History
06:13 Two Fermi Paradoxes
08:16 Sponsorship
09:38 The Eerie Silence
11:56 Direct Fermi Paradox
15:11 Capability?
18:38 Motivation?
20:53 Anthropicism
25:01 Extragalactic SETI
27:17 Outro & credits
#fermiparadox #aliens #seti
The universe is likely many orders of magnitude larger than we can see. What we've done so far is like looking for fish in a teaspoon of seawater.
Yeah, with binoculars from miles away
That is due to the expansion of Spacetime shifting light from unimaginably distant objects into... unintelligible garbage, or to the point it's nearly impossible to detect.
Like being an ant. Standing on a leaf. Perched atop a tidal wave.
@@Dianasaurthemelonlord7777 : No, the expansion of spacetime is insignificant within a galaxy.
Perhaps. And? Is there a point you were trying to make?
Imagine finding out that Fermi was only commenting on the slow service by the wait staff when he asked, “Where is everybody?”
😂
😅😅
The lesser known but more commonly felt, "Dining Services Paradox".
I truly simple-and elegant-solution. Kudos.
That's OK. Heisenberg still couldn't decide what to order anyway. He was so uncertain he ended trying to turn that into his life principle. True story, probably.
I've always contributed it to the fact that the universe is so unfathomably large that the distance between life forms is just beyond comprehension
and constantly getting further apart
Let's colonize the galaxy first. Then worry about the universe.
At the rate we are going, we could, and probably will, colonize the galaxy sometime within the next million years. That is without faster than light travel. It took us about 4 billion years to become sentient. The oldest star in the galaxy is about 13 billion years old. There are an estimated 100 to 400 billion stars in the galaxy. Quite a few of them had a head start on us. Apparently, NONE of them developed a civilization that spread throughout the galaxy. THAT is the FERMI paradox. It is not about why we haven't found life. It is about why we aren't neck deep in extraterrestrial life. If 1 in every 100 million stars had developed an advanced civilization, there would be about 2,000 of them in our galaxy. Intelligent life may be that rare. It also may be that there is a reason it didn't spread throughout the galaxy. We just don't know.😊
The moon is weird, just saying, I'm some nutbar who says things like, the Fermi Paradox was "mostly solved" by testimonies like Asimov on Astronomy (1974), or that "the Moon may have implications for that one chunk of the Drake Equation." I'm not opposed to Boltzmann Brains forming in the cores of stars but it seems uncommon. Leaving a star system is daring, but leaving galaxies seems to have vastly decreased returns. You only have to go so far to get out of a family dinner. Perhaps aliens are holed up in holographic storage awaiting a chance to fix the next universe at the get-go -- I wouldn't be surprised if this is NOT the case -- but yeah... distance and time-slash-rare circumstances looks like the deal to me.
People always bring the vastness of the universe for the non findings. We can't even get a signal in our own galaxy. What's the universe got to do with it?
"when was the last time you tried to converse with an insect" great line
I swore at a mosquito the other day.
@@marflitts genius!
Yet people study insects. Some people are fascinated by insects. So while an alien intelligence might not view us as intellectual peers, they might still be intrigued by us all the same.
Bruh. In 268 years from now we will find our first exoplante inhabited by a species that'll be in its caveman days and OUR ENTIRE PLANET WOULD BE UTTERLY FASCINATED BY IT. Get real.
While technically not an insect, I did apologize to a spider yesterday.
This reminds me of a joke I heard once. Some aliens are passing Earth and do a quick scan. One says, " This species has satellite base weapons." So the other alien ask, " So they are an intelligent species?" The first alien replies with " No, they have them aimed at each other." It a little dark.
Lol. It's like, why are all our telescopes pointing away from earth looking for intelligent life. Cos there's none here.
Yeah. Problem is if there is life out there they very likely got started much like us and were considered unintelligent in the beginning as well. We're not unintelligent we're just still very young and immature.
@@thewholeeventhorizon But it's also possible that planets exist with such an abundance of raw materials for proteins that it didn't require competition between entities, and yet something else spurred on the evolution that they don't even conceive as to why one organism would prey on another. We might be the stuff of nightmares to them.
@Kunsoo1024 That would inevitably lead to explosive growth of population till there is not enough resources to support population. So, the only way for life on such a planet to survive without violence - to regulate its population, which is done either by violence, or by law restricting reproduction. All of this applies that this life on other planet has reproduction at all. There just couldn't be a planet with unlimited resources. And limited resources lead to limited population. The only way I can see is some kind of genius species, that develops new technologies faster than resources demand grows. So, they leave the planet before demand for resources becomes unsustainable.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
I heard a really interesting solution to the fermi paradox from a biologist. She was citing a recent paper where we found that phosphorus is not as common in the galaxy as we initially thought. In fact we have somewhat of a lottery winner here on earth with drastically high amounts as compared to other star systems. Phosphorus is a key ingredient in the storing and transferal of biological energy all the way down to the level of binding DNA together. She said that the paper she had read stated that phosphorus is one of those heavier elements that are formed in supernovae instead of just from fusion and so it is possible that, despite the age of the universe, there has not been enough time necessary to create enough phosphorus for other life to arise. And just like how we're "lucky" to be on the planet that has essential liquid water, we could simply be "lucky" to be in the corner of the universe, in the corner of the galaxy, which has just high enough concentrations for life to have formed here. If that were the case, then we are the precursors who will likely die out as a species long before enough phosphorus is created to support the types of galactic communities we dream of. It may very well be that eons from now, as the universe begins to evolve space faring civilizations, that our ruins are discovered scattered across the stars, and they translate our records of how alone we feel.
dude...
So we are actually the Ancients... I knew I was born too soon.
Possibly. But I more support the theory which states exactly opposite. We’re relatively young civilization. Other intelligent species are likely far ahead of us. Or the sheer vastness/immensity of outer space is too great for any intelligent species to communicate effectively with another.
There are numerous 'accidental' circumstances that have made the evolution of complex life on Earth possible, the presence of water and key elements are just some of them ... The very organisation of the solar system, with large gaseous outer planets acting as a gravitational barrier that minimises the amount of space debris impacting the earth .... the temperature on Earth goverened by its proximity to the Sun ... the Earth's magnetic core protecting the atmosphere from solar raditaion. When you think of all of the things that needed to be in place for it to be possible for the planet to develop and sustain life over periods of time that allow complex organisms to develop ... well, you begin to think that if life in the Galaxy and the Universe is indeed extremely rare, that should be no great surprise to anyone.
@@Dionysos640 i think about that a lot too. I don't necessarily believe it to be true, but i think most ppl are way too quick in the assumption of "the universe is so vast there HAS to be other life out there". We don't even rly know how the very first life formed, what if it's an unimaginably small chance, and the reason we got so "lucky", is easily explained by the weak anthropic principle?
I appreciate your remark on semantics. It is very important for figuring out "which question we are discussing", otherwise the discussion could get too general and shallow
100 years ago we were still traveling by boat while only 20% of the population could read and write. This space party is just getting started.
Thousands of years of war has led to this technology. They need to master this planet first, the Ocean bottoms are vastly unknown and many people still can't read.
In 1924 america probably true do to the education system there.
For sure, magical to become aware of this..
Whatever is wrong with travelling by boat?
@@pieterboelen2862 Nothing wrong with boats, just can’t be taking them to other planets.
I've probably watched hundreds of videos on the Fermi Paradox, and it's so great to see something actually added to the conversation. Someone with something new to say, instead of just essentially reading out the Wikipedia page. Thank you!
You've been dead for quite a while haven't you? How have you managed to keep watching videos in the afterlife?
Yes. Hear here! Your team does such wonderful work. Your channel is one of my favorite channels. Thank you to the entire Cool Worlds Team such thorough and clear explanations. You are truly bringing science to the people. :)
@@darksu6947 There isn't a lot to do here in the afterlife. So I mostly just watch KZhead videos.
Yea it didn't bring anything to the table, they're already here and don't even use radio for communication on their own planet why would they be emitting it
Worth looking at Isaac Arthur's videos on the topic. Far beyond just a listing of facts to be found there!
Anyone who takes the time to focus on and present nuance on a subject like this is amazing. Thank you for your amazing dedication and work Dr. Kipping. This channel is what I imagined future science documentaries to be when I was a child, before the dark times destroyed television.
I don't know how to break this to you, but television was never NOT crap, in terms of teaching anyone anything. It is for entertainment and making money, and virtually nothing else. If it ever gets to the point where science programs on YT aren't entertaining, they will stop, no question about it. They will also stop, meaning die a painful death, when some other medium becomes available that makes it about as interesting as hearing stories around a campfire, unceasingly, for your entire life.
But you forget Game of Thrones! That's an awesome tv series.
@@MrJdseniorI'd take a decent campfire over the dumpster fire of social media culture any day
@@MrJdsenior Lol, I don't know how to break this to you but if you think television, (or social media), is purely for entertainment or money you probably live in a virtual reality, a fantasy world.
If you feel the need to be needlessly formal, you'd address him as 'Prof. Kipping', which is his more-prestigious / higher-precedence title.
Imagine a hypothetical comment section. You don’t see any comments, so you type “first” and hit send. You don’t reload the page, and therefore watch the whole video thinking that you were the first
Oh that makes sense...
first!
I love your channel, and scientific judgments in various subjects. I love your voice and passion for the subject. Just thank you, Dr. Kipping 🤩👍
This is waaay too interesting to view at 3am and expect to go to sleep… I blame you for my insomnia
Sounds like you need a Sleepcore video
Sarcasm? 😂
@@ItsaRomethingeveryday Not at all 🙂
@@MarinCipollina help me to understand
Sleepcore videos feature old retro-futurism like IBM videos, TV company videos, car company videos talking about what they have coming in the future from a 1950s/1960s perspective.. weird, and a bit creepy today, but they'll put you to sleep.. just do a KZhead search.. For instance, in one video, IBM talks about.. putting a computer on an airplane !! (It's a much bigger challenge than simply carrying your MacBook on board..) 😆Great stuff..
Great video! I’m an astrobiologist, published and all. My opinion for what it’s worth is simply distance, time and the inverse square law. We have only had a bubble of radio waves going for 80 years, with the furthest chance for a reply arriving tomorrow being only 40 light years away, in a galaxy a 105,000 light years across. That’s only 0.03% of the galaxies diameter. The chances a technological civilisation is within that is minuscule. Secondly is the inverse square law. The change any of our TV shows would “leak out”, and be detectable even by the largest telescope isn’t realistic. The signal would have attenuated well before a few light years. Of which there is only half a douzen stars at most in that sphere. Once again the chance a civilisation is in one of those few star systems out of hundreds of billions is low. The answer to the paradox is space is really really big, and artificial radio sources are puny.
Alcoholics anonymous is probably a more palpable option..
Yeah, alot of people call it a paradox that we see no signs of other civilizations- yet it seems so obvious that there is no way we'd ever be able to with current technology. Artificial EM waves, even all of those ever produced by humanity, are massively overshadowed by cosmic background radiation at extreme distances. Any given signal only has so much raw energy attached to it, and as it spreads out radially that power is gonna decrease dramatically- inverse square law as you said. Even if a signal of ours ever reached another life bearing planet with a technologically advanced civilization, the odds that they'd be able to detect it are functionally zero unless their tech vastly surpasses ours to a fairly incredible degree. To detect such heavily diluted signals amonst the collective radiation of every star in the visible universe is a herculean feat.
Exactly my thoughts!
astrobiologist already a thing?
I'm not an astrobiologist, but my thoughts exactly
Thank you for your engaging and informative content! I just found you and am really enjoying your videos. You briefly mentioned the great filter, and I was hoping you'd expand on that theory some more considering the topic. Would you consider making a video about the great filter and perhaps how it relates to this video topic?
I watch these types of videos quite often. It’s usually repetitive and I learn nothing new. This channel though, never fails to teach me something new and leave me mind blown. Great job Sir!!!
It’s quite possible that spacefaring civilization is rare because it requires a balance of ambition, discretion, and foresight which is difficult to achieve. Civilizations that have a strong tendency to explore and colonize may also be more prone to internal conflict that disrupts their progress. On the other hand, civilizations that are peaceful, stable, and happy might not care to go exploring. Finally, the resources required would need planning and development over long periods of time, whereas short-horizon use of the same resources would be a constant temptation.
And also I bet all the billion alien civilizations out there waste their resources and time on toxic useless social media, tiktoks, twitters, instagrams and whatnot.
@@camilohiche4475PRIMITIVE. PRIMITIVE. PRIMITIVE. Undoubtedly preposterous barbarious PRIMITIVE theory. You will never expand knowledge wise as a race, if you think small. Wake up. You are not told truthfully of actual space or Astronomy generally speaking. The Extraterrestrials that you may have been looking for are everywhere and yes, they know Earth as well, interstellar speaking at least. Peace ✌️
@@camilohiche4475 pleasure worlds
Also if a planet is any larger than earth than rockets become increasingly infeasible for getting into space. At 50% larger than earth (with the same density) rockets could not get you to earth’s orbit.
@@Farazormal1 I still haven't left your mom's orbit
The problem with the Fermi paradox is that there are too many assumptions to really take it seriously but it’s a great talking point.
Agree, and that includes his version of the 'direct' fermi paradox. It's a naive question, not a paradox.
@@TrueBlueYZnicely put! the universe is likely far bigger than we are capable of understanding “yet” I personally believe once we reach a certain threshold on earth like no war being the main thing if we cant even get on with ourselves how are we gonna react to alien life…… once we hit this point i think they will make themselves known and allow us to come to them as to not create a panic then we could possibly learn of an inter galactic community….. its just as unlikely as it is likely its interesting to at least think about!
Yes, something new for intellectuals to do when they are bored with life.
In comparison. We have searched in such a small area of space. It is the equivalent of looking at a glass of water of the ocean looking for a fish. Now if we consider the short period of time we have been detectable. The odds of us being detected is so slim. It equates to zero in the context of a human lifespan.
Of course that is not true. Carl Sagan set up a testable scientific experiment to search for intelligent, extraterrestrial life. We have conducted that experiment numerous times: Results NEGATIVE. He even wrote a novel about it --- "Contact," in case you haven't read it. In it, he expected alien intelligence to make a point of contacting us rather shortly after radio transmissions reached them. The galaxy crowded with intelligent life Sagan hypothesized has not panned out. YOU simply refuse to accept the results of scientific experiment because it doesn't appeal to what amounts to your religious beliefs. We detected the radio signals of the Big Bang DECADES ago, defining the edge of the known universe. No intelligence other than our own has been detected in that enormous volume. However, if something should turn up ---fine. Call me.
Great sound quality and narration. Excellent production work
Who’s here after 3 body problem?
Haha, this video popped on my KZhead after watching 3 body problem.😄
What a coincidence 😹
That show resurfaced my interest. Lol
Yes I'm here because I'm curious to see what he says the solution to the Fermi Paradox. And I have been looking stuff up related to the 3 Body Problem.
I read the book a little while back.
I freaking love it when you film in the woods. As an environmental science student with a fascination for physics and space, it's the perfect juxtaposition, talking about something so advanced in a setting so very primal. Poetic.
I agree! As someone who grew up in a forest just before the Internet, I appreciate the work you do
I mean, he’s talking about possible life forms while standing in the natural world. Talking about life while standing in life. Poetic indeed, but for different reasons
The original 'green screen'.
That’s what my degree is in from Appalachian state university!
Dude that's just a background image.
Wow, didn’t know there were more than 1 Fermi hypotheses. That you so much for the episodes. I’m not able to go to college due to my cancer (multiple myeloma) and really enjoy continuing my my education!! I am a 10 year warrior and continue fighting till their is a cure!!
I sincerely hope you get better! Take care!
Keep fighting and hoping you recover
@@CoolWorldsLab - It's not a fight!
@@pit2ryan3 as someone who's recovered from one it is exactly a personal fight like no other. You won't know until you've been in those shoes mate.
@@pit2ryan3 Yes it is bud
Top KZhead channel. The only notification I have ever turned on. Please discuss in depth the Miller-Urey experiment.
Not sure how I've only just found your channel. Incredible.
My hunch (for what little it is worth) is that if there are intelligent aliens in our galaxy, there is only a small number of them and that it is not in their nature to expand a lot and build megastructures that we could observe. I think there could only be a small number of them because it would be improbable that none of them have expanded rapidly enough to be observed by us.
My hunch is that we just haven’t been looking long and hard enough.
Your logic is sound, kevley.
Or maybe our nearest neighboring civilizations may not be advanced enough technologically to go interstellar. They could be in their version of the medieval period, antiquity, great age of sail, etc.
Yeah I don't think we should assume that these aliens would build megastructures have faster-than-light travel or even colonize outside their own solar system much less use radio waves that we would be able to detect. It's like looking out your window not seeing any people and saying there are no people.
i think that most civilizations end up killing themselves before reaching the ability to leave their solar system ... similar to what is going to happen to us. At the same time I do not believe we are ever going to leave our solar system I don't believe that we can survive without our star and I mean ours specifically. I think that all life that develops within the system of its star can never leave that star without dire consequences. If it wasn't for our star the sun we would not be here and I believe that without our star again we would not survive
That this channel has less than 10 million subscribers is arguably more mysterious than the Fermi Paradox.
Nobody I know can really follow, nor appreciate what is being presented in these videos. They want to watch stuff where no thinking is required.
Same principle applies. Yes, the channel will necessarily reach 10 mil. First it has to hit 5, and 3, and 1. Some of us lucky few had to be part of that first sub-mil in order for it to reach 1, then 5, then 10, and so on.
@@brown3394 😁
Amen brother. It'll get there though. There's certain videos that can suck you in regardless of your intelligence level. My partner is nowhere near the level of science nerdiness I'm at... But she still really appreciates the way he can tell a story and how he can make anything mundane be like velvet cheesecake to the ears.
@@brown3394 Few people understand this. They feel that if a channel is "good," then it should have a similar number of subscribers as other great, well-established channels, "instantaneously."
23:05 I'm gonna need some time to process that What an insane, but also completely logical thought.
I agree, and here's a really dark twist for you. If our galaxy is the only one without AGI's on a mission of galactic conquest, then WE are the ones to let the AGI loose in this galaxy.
@@mahande88 That is an interesting thought. If we develop a way to detect it and discover that lots of other galaxies are overrun by AGI, then the implication would be truly harrowing. To know that the advancement of technology would be our doom...
Might explain certain NHI described here on Earth. Tbh
Maybe the filter is when those capable enough to see the other AGI colonies then work hard (brutally destroy / outlaw/ self destruct) to prevent themselves becoming one themselves.
Thanks for a beautiful video. I didn't understand all the reasoning, but feel that the distances are so vast, and our issues here so great, that it doesn't really matter, other than to induce in us a sense of humility.
Considering potential scenarios with an open mind without perpetuating pet assumptions, beliefs, hopes or conclusions sets you apart, Prof. . Many thanks and much respect to your realistic contributions
I love the conclusion to this video. wrapped up perfectly... Plus the fact you took the laptop and mixer outside for a more natural setting. 5 stars :D
Agreed
We are living on a leaf of a shrub in a very large dark forest.
The milky way is 100,000 light years across, the first signal we intentionally sent into space is only 50 light years away...the speed of light pales in comparison to the size of the universe
Plus our signals are quite puny and will attenuate away to the point of being undetectable.
I like to think that Fermi returned from Starbucks and no one was in the office so he asked "where is everybody?" And we just took it and ran with it 😅
😂
Hilarious! 😂😂
Ha! :D
A simple resolution indeed.
Everybody was abducted and being probed by aliens.
I am so glad I found this channel. You are a master at conveying deep thoughts in a succinct, approachable, and at times poetic manner. I also love how rewatchable a lot of your videos are. Your 'Watching The End Of The World' video is so beautiful, and I've even fallen asleep to it multiple times.... It's like an adult bedtime story that is so relaxing. It's your voice cadence and the fact that I can just hear the love you put in to these videos. Keep on being an amazing, brilliant, and loving human.❤
Amazing channel, must be said!
Well put, Jeremiah. I love that video, too, along with all the videos in which Dr. Kipping has narrated the interwoven histories of the Milky Way, our solar system, Earth, life, complex intelligence and the cosmos. The principles and possibilities that are elucidated along the way are just boggling. And riveting!
In short thanks for dumbing this down for us laymen.
Cool world guy should do a collaboration with Isaac Arthur.
@@uncleanunicorn4571 I agree! I think Dr. Kipping once referenced Arthur quite admiringly. For me they are the quasars of plausible speculation -- propelled by boyish enthusiasm and anchored by scholarly rigor. In fact they sort of function as gyroscopes for some incredibly intelligent but sometimes zany communities, maintaining equipoise in our collective imagination.
Your voice is amazing. I love listening while doing yoga. Very soothing. ❤❤❤
Don't rip your pants 👖
Great vid, I like the way you present material
The Fermi paradox in a nutshell: “Why isn’t there evidence of intelligences with totally different evolutionary paths from our own doing what only _some_ of us would do: attempting to contact us with 20th century technology across almost unfathomable distances? We’ve been searching for them for over .02% of humanity’s history, but we’ve still found nothing!” Don’t get me wrong, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence is fascinating, yet I feel like many of us have grossly underestimated the scope of the challenge.
Pretty much, yeah. There IS no Fermi paradox. We dont need one to explain why life is rare and far apart in the universe. And life that walks around and has its own space program, almost INFINITELY rare. See... No Fermi paradox needed.
the Universe is so vast in space/time and Life so short in comparison that the scale of the task should be obvious to everyone, it seems to me.
The Fermi para , does make me laugh. 2 things it doesn't take into account the fact that there probably going to be extra dimensional . Which means conventional space travel doesn't even come into it. Aslo there's a very good chance / probably a certainty that first contact with at least one race has already been made in private. This will never ever be disclosed. The reason for this is people riot when there's no toilet role on the shelves of lidl. Imagine what would happen if this sudden revelation was to occur. It would be catastrophic
“Why isn’t there evidence?” This is a shit ton of evidence. We’re spoiled with evidence.
@@Kingeptacon Spoiled with evidence of what?
I've been watching this channel for some time now. The content is always interesting. The presenter is awesome. I love the style of presentation, not stupidified , no spoon feeding. This has become one of my favourite vlogs and I really appreciate the thought provoking content. Please keep doing what you're doing.
You look like you are ready to rob a bank with that mask on
He probably already did,hence the picture. 😉
Cool Worlds and Melody Sheep are my two favourite space themed channels.
@@happychappy492 I agree...... Or, Hallowe'en every day over there.
The weak anthropic principle is a good caveat in looking at any probabilistic theory, but I also think it can be overstated or dismissive of attempts to come to an answer. I think the weak anthropic principle is better used to highlight where we lack data than as a silver bullet to probabilistic questions like the Fermi Paradox.
Well said. Nice presentation.🙏
Simple answer: we are causally disconnected from our closest stellar neighbors with few exceptions. There is no traveling from one system to another without distorting gravity and therefore space time.
Or just hoof it at sub-light speed. Planets (and stars for that matter) don't last forever, you either have to leave or die at some point.
Imagine how ground breaking it would be to speak with insects! All life is worth investigating much in the same way subatomic particles are worth observing. Possibly Love this stuff. ❤
Considering your name, i have to mention that the finishing statement in this video reminded me of scp-7999 tale. I watched it few weeks ago on the "the exploring series" youtube channel. It's about kind of a solving of Fermi paradox, but a beautiful tale. Read or watch/listen to it... you'll probably like it
I talk to the bees l the time. They are so dull. All they want to talk about is gathering nectar.
@@I.C.Weiner - They don't gather nectar, they gather pollen... And don't steal their honey...
@@pit2ryan3 I love honey, make me stop.
@@pit2ryan3 Uhm, no they gather nectar from flowers, mixed with basically their saliva this turns into honey. Pollen are a trick used by the plants, and are bascially stowaways in the hairs and legs of the bees which the bee accidentally deposits on a subsequent visit to another flower of the same genus. AKA Bees do not consume pollen, nor do they visit flowers to gather them intentionally.
Such a great and elegant dialogue.. Well done ❤️
Reminds me of Liu Cixin's book series The Three Body Problem, his explanation being that survival and natural selection still take place in space with Aliens doing their best to hide while other Aliens hunt for other civilizations.
I’m glad I didn’t have to scroll this far to find this. The Dark Forest theory is nothing but terrifying
@@rinzlr3554terrifying if real bc of how noisy we have been but it is quite something to ponder on
@@stunxna as of now with our technological capabilities, I’m not too worried. We transmit a lot through radio waves and they tend to degrade quickly. Unless an advanced alien civilization had some kind of ability to detect something so small then they already know we exist or they don’t care, or both. It’s going to be a far different story when we (if) become an interstellar civilization that can transmit across light years.
The Dark Forest idea is interesting but I don't believe ultimately, realistic. Intelligence wants to connect with other intelligences.
@@joejoe7562 hard to agree, most humans attacked and enslave or went to war over resources, land, religion, etc regardless of if the enemies had si.ilar lvls of intelligence. Ive never seen the FIRST interaction being an attempt at understanding. If anything, the idea of a species connecting with another species is unrealistic, the cultural difference and appearance would make it difficult to connect.
This guy speaks so well. He’s easy on the eye too. I don’t know his name but I like his presentations.
This is so interesting, I really regret not getting a healthier more deep curiosity in all the sciences and especially astronomy / mathematics theories long before spending 59 years on this earth.
We are again left clueless. An interesting take, thank you :)
Very thought provoking, Dr Kipping. Reminds me of the SF novel of a self-replicating robot 'culture', originally intended to explore and report back their findings, but whose computer programming (their machine DNA) went awry, leaving only the "self-replicating" part intact, the result being they became an interstellar plague, destroying the life they were sent to find.
Whats the name of the novel? 🤔
@@DrumToTheBassWoop Good old Gray Goo
@@asdrake1327 pardon ? 🤨
@@DrumToTheBassWoop Gray Goo is a book about the extinction of all life on earth via endlessly replicating nanotechnology that resembles a gray goo
@@asdrake1327 oww, okay i'll give that a read.
I believe it was called as a Paradox because the initial assumptions and coefficients give rise to millions of civilizations as solutions, just in our Milky Way Galaxy, yet we have the 'eerie silence' as you reminded us earlier in this video.
There is no silence. We just don't know how to listen.
@@nevisstkitts8264 Ohhhh, edgy
@@nevisstkitts8264 There can still be silence. Noise is an active action, and if they decided to just stop we’d hear nothing.
@@davemccombs ...I don't think that was edgy in the slightest.
@@davemccombs How's that edgy?
what I take from this video are the ideas of anthrophic principle and fine-tuned universe. Very intriguing. Thinking about roaming AGI kinda reminded me of Roko's Basilisk.
how do i get a list of the movie clips you showed? I'm really intrigued to watch the films of some of those clips
I hope that your videos are used in high schools etc., they're so much more insightful than the teachers who feel forced to teach. There's a big difference between those who love to teach and those who have to. It's the education system that's wrong, and I'm so glad we have people like your good self making videos. Communicating science must be an extremely hard job, like switching between knowing a fk ton to making it a gram. Nuff respect brother
Ummm, it would help schools if kids were polite.
@@veramae4098 Ummm, it would helps kids if parents taught and practiced values like politeness.
This is hands down the best analysis of the Fermi paradox that I have ever seen. Well done Cool Worlds.
I'm really enjoying yer way of explaining yourself man, seriously. People talking about extraterrestrial superluminally "minded" organisms? Whatever. But your last video (last to me only, of course) about the ridiculous indifference to whether or not this is a simulation (my emphasis, as I genuinely get frustrated by such things taking up not only people's curiosity but their whole lives when there is SO MUCH to be curious about) really struck me. So I have to point out, and I ramble when I'm sleep deprived sorry, that the "aliens" ain't stealin' the DSNY litter receptacles. They're RETURNING them. Hence- "Where is everybody?" Nice mike, by the way
At the end of Neromancer by William Gibson there was a conversion between a human and an unleashed AI. Where the AI says that they where out their all the time trying to talk to us and it took an A.I with unrestrained power to recognize it. Gibson even touched on this back in the 80’s.
Fermi, looking at an empty mess hall: "Where is everybody?" Everybody: "omg what could he have meant by this!!!"
I think Fermi would think the whole thing was ridiculous
Have you considered that we might be on one the first solar systems with heavy metals required for technology? It would at least four stages of Nova to spread enough heavy metals to get enough on a planet
I've actually thought about that a lot. Humanity is kind of lucky since we got tons of coal, oil, and gas which provides insane amounts of energy, not to mention some good easily domesticated work animals. Just looking at different cultures we can see the effects of those things. Pack animals are thought to be a major reason why Old World civilizations became so much more advanced then New World ones. A horse or ox can do the work of a handful of men and they can eat foods we cant (grass) basically making them a free source of labor. That meant many tasks could be done by animals freeing up more time for humans to ponder, plan, and think which meant faster technological advancement. Things like water wheels and windmills grew from similar machines done by animals but at greater efficiency. It's thought that the widespread use of that kind of tech was why Europe advanced faster in the middle ages and early modern period. Without the earlier machines built for animals like the ox mill we'd likely have taken longer to develop the windmill. Widespread use of charcoal and later coal is what created the industrial revolution. Without both coal and lots of metal it wouldnt have been possible and the amount of work even a simple coal/steam powered machine can do compared to manpower is INSANE. I've heard the earliest practical steam engines could do the work of an entire work crew or village. Once we started using oil and gas that got even more insanely efficient. For a frame of reference a pre-modern laborer could burn 3000-8000 calories in a day (which includes nearly 2000 just to carry out bodily tasks and survive) but a single gallon of gas contains around 32,000 calories and a single GRAM of uranium is around 200 million calories. Without a metal rich planet, fossil fuel deposits, or other key resources it would take far, FAR longer for any civilization to develop. Not only would it take them far longer to develop to the point of using solar, hydro (assuming earth levels of water), or wind but they'd also have less efficiency compared to fossil fuels which would mean getting to space would take them forever to achieve and only then would they be able to get access to the levels of minerals we have on earth.
I've made a similar argument myself. I don't know about needing _four_ stages of novas, but from my (limited) understanding, I'd say at least _two,_ and considering our solar system formed when the universe was about, what, 9.3 billion years old?, that sounds tentatively like _just_ enough time for two generations of stellar life cycles, _maybe._ And never mind the _metals_ for technology; the key thing is _intelligence,_ and _that_ requires time and evolution, and a fairly specific set of circumstances; namely, an environment that's volatile enough to force life in it to adapt in order to survive, but not _so_ volatile that it snuffs everything out before it can start. Our planet managing to maintain 4 billion years of relative, but not _complete,_ stability, has to be a pretty rare thing, I'd surmise.
Great video thank you 👍🏻
Turns out Enrico Fermi was read-in to the UAP Phenomenon. So, he did know about non-human Intelligences. Therefore, it's "Fermi's Disinfo"
This is awesome, why do scientist totally ignore the current UAP phenomenon? They are seen under the water all the time.
@scottgardner4487 Astrophysics Dr Kevin Knuth suggests maybe some Popularizers of Science have invested interests in ignoring and disregarding this topic, which has been stigmatized for so long.
Fermi always liked to pose questions, such as 'how many piano-tuners does San Francisco need', and get an answer on the basis of simple assumptions. When he applied his usual reasoning to alien visitation, the answer simply turned out to be zero. It may have been thought to be a paradox at the time because it seemed to run counter to Drake's equation.
"where are they all" = "The Bugger Formic Invid Zentraedi Robotech Masters are overdue"
Drake's equation was forumalated years later and makes WILD and completely unsupported assumptions to arrive at a large number, when making more reasonable, conservative assumptions will generally yield the number zero, or one, since we are here. (Galaxy; if you consider the whole universe it's a bit different, but uncorroborable). I suspect Fermi himself would've taken Drake, set some of the parameters to "effectively zero," and arrived at the conclusion that WE are a fluke.
If I recall correctly, Fermi didn't see it as a paradox. He just concluded that interstellar travel was likely too hard. SO even if there WERE other intelligent species out there, they would remain cooped up within their respective solar systems. It just becasme a paradox later, as people began to conclude that maybe space travel isn't actually impossible.
all large-scale science, from Geology (Planetology) to Cosmology, has always advanced from the principle of Uniformity (Uniformitarianism) = "what's here is there is everywhere & when" confirmed batting average to date = 1.000 slugging percentage = 4.000 strikeout percentage = 0.000 never (yet) failed always (yet) proved true
@@oldionus We are a fluke, the solar system is a fluke and the whole universe is a fluke. We should be called the fluke species on the fluke universe fine-tuned for fluking flukes.
That was an incredible sign off. I love putting the entire discussion into the frame of our own limited time and what power we have to achieve our goals in that limited time. Thank you for that. Your videos are meaningful from a science education perspective but also from a personal motivation and well being perspective.
Our time is a tiny sliver. The odds of any other slivers matching up with ours and also having the ability to communicate or travel? I just don’t see it.
@@masonb9788PRIMITIVE. PRIMITIVE. PRIMITIVE. Undoubtedly preposterous barbarious PRIMITIVE theory. You will never expand knowledge wise as a race, if you think small. Wake up. You are not told truthfully of actual space or Astronomy generally speaking. The Extraterrestrials that you may have been looking for are everywhere and yes, they know Earth as well, interstellar speaking at least. Peace ✌️
The expression "your making a mountain out of a mole hill" come to mind!
The most simplest way I can see/say this is like: Imagine the universe of Stargate SG1/Atlantis or even SGU, then take away all the stargates: ... and voila. We just do not know and there are far too many different possibilities as to why.
We tend to assume aliens would develop on similar lines to us, animals that evolved to become smarter, then built machines to enhance themselves, but it's entirely possible they'd just be so weird we wouldn't recognize them as life initially.
Cybertron silicon based transformer life xd
Temporal explanation: Why didn't humans interact with dinosaurs? Their lifetimes never overlapped. That's just on this planet. Aliens not only have to span the universe to get here, they would have to arrive at the right time for us to see and hear them. Allegedly they have already done this, but the people who say this are dismissed. So what do you want if you have no ears the hear, eyes to the see or brains to think?
I mean, sure, if it behaves like inert rocks, we might overlook it. But as soon as it starts building stuff, or in more general terms, "doing" stuff, you would be hard pressed not to recognize it. For crying out lout, one of the necessary properties a mortal entity needs to have is self replication. That would be pretty hard to miss under any circumstance I can think of.
@@Alexander_Kale That you can think of, with your brain made of meat.
To be fair they kinda had to if we assume they come from this universe and developed like us.
Professor Kipping - you continue to make me excited for learning and asking the big questions! Thank you!
I love that Feynman's mischievous mug is right next to Fermi's at the beginning.
Incredible narration 👏🏼👍🏼
Always look forward to seeing the new videos! Great educational and objective content! This channel is the sole reason I found my interest in astrophysics. Thank you for all of your hard work, research, and dedication! I will definitely be donating in the near future.
I assume the answer is some combination of life being less common than we've assumed, life being younger than we've assumed, and space being so big that it's really hard to look for anything.
When you've seen one there is no Paradox. You all carry on.I know the truth and i am grateful and blessed to be aware of the Truth before i pass.
I believe you. Can you describe what you've seen?
Imagine being an alien and wondering the exact same things that we are and just not having technology to reach us or communicate with us. The topic around aliens always revolves around the idea that there’s so much more technologically advanced than we are when in theory, they could be doing and wondering, the exact same things we are “where is everybody?”
Man this is truly a great channel. Please don’t stop doing what you’re doing. For the sake of humanity.
you owe the 2000 for rent we charge, you cant just our price is out of this world.
Pffff slow down bro he is just a small meaningless youtuber
I am so glad that I came across your video. I'm currently reading Michio Kaku's Parallel Worlds. It's an excellent book that helps understand what's currently going on in science today. I enjoy thinking about all the possibilities such as we may be similar to bateria on a hanging fruit with all of it's variations. Or that we may be like the bacteria completely unaware of the "living" beings who are all around us but with no obvious awareness of us. We may even be riding on one of these beings. I look forward to listening to more of your videos. You do a great job of presenting.
I like to take that same line of thinking and compare us to the people of North Korea. We look at them and think, “poor things are so ignorant about what’s really going on…” What if we’re all that ignorant about a much bigger reality that we are just clueless about. The people of North Korea are no different than us, in the West. So, if it can happen to them, why not us?
I'd like to think,therefore am sure that I'm no bacteria. But you go ahead and be a bacteria if that makes you feel better.
The idea of looking at stars to see possible eclipses indicating dyson spheres is both really cool and really terrifying. Do we really wanna throw radio transmissions at something that has the capability to build objects on a solar scale?
I’ve been deep in the ancient civilizations rabbit hole for the past couple of years now and based on extinction level phenomena that could occur on earth, I’d argue that this happens on many planets in many galaxies. Pair that with the sheer distance between celestial bodies, and to me this is the answer. Civilizations that are smart enough to *eventually* develop the technology for interstellar travel, just may never get the opportunity to.
I feel like the first 6 minutes was a great reason to call the question "Where is everybody?" poetic because it educes a lot of great questions that all hold answers that help us understand our own position in the universe and how much we have yet to learn about biology, society, technology and our selves.
Funny. I was going to comment that the viewer should skip the first 6 minutes to bypass the semantic word salad before he even started addressing the point of the video.
It’s interesting that Where is Everybody is the first episode of The Twilight Zone!
okay, now after @procrastinators and your comments... I now must watch this. :)
Perhaps they all left the visible universe as soon as they had the technology because they understand that "sticking around" results in inevitable death.
Distances are too vast. Life exists elsewhere but the physical limits of speed of light cannot be over come
Dr. Kipping, I will always graciously follow any journey of thought, understanding, and realization you ever want to lead. You and the Cool Worlds Lab are amazing and one of THE BEST resources on KZhead. Thank you and your colleagues for everything you do.
Thanks! Yes we want to genuinely advance the conversation and our understanding.
@@CoolWorldsLab then look at the past to see the future.
Could you please list your sources for the film clips that you used?
Our radio waves have barely left a small fraction of our own galaxy. Even if something heard an old broadcast a couple hundred light-years away, it would take 200 years for a response.
In a universe so vast, and not long ago, humans believing we were at the center of the universe, makes me realize that those who are still believing we are alone are once again as wrong as our ancestors were.
The Fermi Paradox gives aliens too much credit, especially the ability to transmit responses to our electronic inquiries. And even more presumptuous is assuming aliens have interstellar traveling capabilities. Maybe there is some sort of life on some far off planet millions of AUs from earth, but they have the same problem man has. He's stuck at home without a ride.
Yep. This is the ACTUAL simple solution to this so-called "paradox". This channel calls it a conditional paradox... I'd say Occam's Razor suggests aliens are simply not able to travel or communicate across the vast distances.
OR - that they already did and are long gone. The chances of a race on an even remotely the same level of technology as us and them or their "signals" crossing paths with us out here on the unfashionable western spiral arm of the galaxy within the 50 years we've been searching is insanely small. Could be plenty way below us, or way above us. Their signals might not be here yet, or maybe they've been here and gone. The galaxy is almost 14 billion years old.
Exactly. Seems pretty simple. I think there are aliens, but we’re just too damn far away
except not really large scale human civilization has existed for only 6000 years or so in the last 200 years of that we have gone from horse and carriage and everything being hand made to automation, computers and crude spaceflight that is an absuredly tiny period of time on the galactic scale, barely a blink unless we are the first or among the first sentient life to emerge then any other alien civilization would have had practically unlimited time to develop before us granted it could be that FTL travel is impossible and despite all their advanced technology they still have to wait decades or centuries for a ship to fly to the next star, so they exist but simply haven't had time to reach us yet (or they know of us but don't deem it worthwhile to fly all the way over here and contact us)
@@legendofrobboactually humans were able to develop so fast due to the large coal reserves. These coal reserves were only able to develop so large, because bacteria were unable to eat trees for hundreds of millions of years, bacteria evolved this ability randomly. If on an alien planet bacteria would develop this ability much faster, or large trees didnt develop as fast or at all and instead large ferns would exist for much longer than on earth could reduce the coal reserves of that planet drastically! This would in tern effect the speed of development of that alien civilization, they might need to spend much longer developing machines that dont use coal, without the fast revolution of steam power that was our industrial revolution. Maybe their planet doesn't have a medium-large continent in the same spot as earth has Europe, which due to physics has the perfect climate for large population centers to develop on the most fertile soil and instead has a much slower population growth and therefore less pressure to develop new technology. Maybe they Arent as warlike and therefore didnt have the same pressures to develop many of the fields of technology that have their routes in fighting war that humanity has, many of the tech we use each day has their routes in tech developed for war after all. Maybe their planet has 1-5% more water than earth and therefore has much smaller landmasses spread further out, also causing a slower growth. The other way around is also possible, but the argument that we were able to get where we are in X amount of time is no proof that other would be able to do the same. Just look at the differences on earth itself, even if we ignore colonization and go back to a time where Europe barely influenced Africa directly, we see that Europe developed MUCH faster(and still does) than other regions of the world, if these differences exist on planetary scale, it is very reasonable to assume this is the case for Interstellar scale as well. There is no doubt that there are more advanced and just as advanced civilizations out there, but just because they exist, doesn't mean they want to visit us. I mean how many people from Europe want to go visit Africa and take a look how tribes live their life, the number is small and well going to Africa is a small distance, now imagine traveling thousands of light years to go look at some monkeys and their small problems. I'd bet that apart from some of their scientists finding it useful to observe us, they dont need to actually visit us to do that. We are a species that record so much of our daily lives with video and audio recordings, writing it down in blogs and we all put it publicly on the internet. The only thing an alien species has to do to observe us, is put a low observable probe somewhere in the Galaxy and connect to our internet, if they are advanced enough to travel here, it's reasonable to assume they can produce a probe that is not observeable by our current technology and connect to our internet without being detected, by doing this they can observe our species through our own eyes, the billions upon billions of gigabythes of data we all produce and put on databases would be more than enough to observe us and they could always put a probe closer to take pictures and videos from space to get even more information. If you look at our development and with current telwscopes(both space and ground), the upcoming and well theorized telescope concepts, we could very well be within 100 years of being able to have sub meter sized resolution from Earth when observing Mars or Venus. Now a days if James Webb was in the moons orbit it could see an object that was 50 meters big, obviously James Webb wasnt designed for this, so we could probably already do better if money wasnt the problem. Therefore my 5 cents is that aliens dont need to even come visit us, when they have better tech then us, cause they could do it from afar and our own experience as a civilization and our development cant just be copy pasted to an alien world, cause the environment will always differ for them.
The Idea of hearing a clear transmission that accounts to a hello would be quite terrifying, given the idea that it was from so long ago that they dont exist anymore, we will only ever hear/see an alien civilization millions of years after they have long since gone extinct. Knowing that any attempt of our own would have the same result.
23:17 hey this is extremely similar to what I thought this morning while sitting in maths class. It’s that using calculus or whatever, we can calculate the probability of something happening, and that probability may be 99.9%, but after that something actually happens, the probability is 100%. So the probability of galactic colonization might be 99.9%, but the fact that it hasn’t happened here means that we fall in the 0.1% category, and that 0.1% is actually 100% to us
Thank you Yugopnik! I appreciate your videos and educational content, it really puts things into perspective. We gotta stand together!
Great production quality as always: Perfect audio, really smooth editing and a fine B-Roll (some sources would be appreciated here 😉) Oh, yes, and the content, of course 🤗 Thanks eveyone!
>"A ten thousand year space flight would not be a problem for an AGI" The power consumption and heat output of GPUs running Stable Diffusion would like to have a word with you.
Directly under our noses is a vast body of evidence, spanning physical + testimonial, that point to the fact that we have been visited numerous times, and probably over millennia. There is credible game theory thinking that posits that keeping silent as an advanced civilization is an optimal strategy for survival + the fact that the distances involved, negate the 60 yrs or so of us "listening" make the endeavour a) possibly futile b) too immature expectation-wise. Having said all that, the content is excellent and a create clarifier of the Fermi Paradox (conditional at that!), so my thanks!
At this point even Aliens would have started using NordVPN.
Mr. Kipping out of the many channels on KZhead yours is certainly one of the top 5! Absolutely love everything you do and thank you
*Dr
@@SAPANNow * Professor
who are the other 4?
@@RoySchl SEA, WhyFiles, Cold Fusion, and there may only be 4 I couldn't really think of five that I really enjoy as much as those
@@bigjermboktown6976 SEA is awesome along with this channel.
I think of it this way. We are a species living on an inch in Alaska's Wrangell St. Elias National Park & Preserve (a national park that has about 13.2 million acres). Or a centimeter in yellowstone national park. Whatever the analogy the fact of the matter is if we do see signs of live we will have to go through stages - 1. Confirmation - how do we even confirm that a planet contains life if its located in a different solar system? The closest star to ours (Proxima Centuari) is 4.2 light years away. Thats about 80 thousand years. 2. Contact - how the hell do we communicate with them? What if their system of communication is different? I guarantee a 99% chance they dont speak any language that are on earth. 3. How do we get their - we currently do not have the technology to get there. Although this might change in the next few decades. No matter how you look at it we need major advances in technology (in computers, communication, travel, and space) to even make inter stellar travel possible, much less find other life forms.
I've seen things on this subject but it's the best theory available
Thank you for this explanation on The Fermi Paradox, so far the most comprehensive I've heard.
I think it is worth pointing out that considering AGI is *also* a conditional paradox, similar to the ones talked about before. We might not actually be able to create AGI for whatever reason, which would open the galaxy up to not being colonized with chemical rockets with AI, but by potentially other means, if at all. It is also worth noting that iirc our star is a 3rd generation star, and during star generations before this one would not of had the heavy metals necessary for life or technology.
I don't think it's necessarily a paradox. After all we have GI already so even if we never create AGI, you can probably substitute GI in there with enough time and tenacity.
Great video, but I disagree with the finite time assumption at the end. While as individuals it is true we are limited by the time we have, there is no definitive proof that collectively we are thusly limited.
Until the time we can fully explore the North and South pole and whatever lies beneath the ocean, we can never do tell if alien did or did not visited Earth
your videos are some of the best content on the web. can't believe it's free. I drop everything when I see a new one has come out
I believe there's a crucial aspect of the solution that has been rarely explored. Let's assume the existence of other life forms in the universe, and let's also assume that these beings share our motivation to seek out other life forms. In this context, a vital question arises: "Are we currently detectable by life forms possessing technology equivalent to ours?" Approximately 150 years ago, we initiated the transmission of radio signals, with a more focused effort toward being detectable beginning around 60 years ago. As things stand with equivalent technological capabilities than ours, humans can be detected within a radius of 150 light years. This, however, only accounts for a ridiculous tiny portion of the size of our galaxy. Consequently, even though we are certain of our existence, we remain imperceptible to 99.99% of the rest of the galaxy with our current level of technology. So any other life form out there will probably also think that humans do not exist.
@16:30 Replicators. _That's_ the tech I'm waiting for!
Last night I wanted to have lobster dinner. I wonder why no lobster showed up at my door.
I just recently discovered this channel and I´m glad I did. Interesting content presented really well. Thanks