KZhead

Predicting Rolex prices is easy for everyone

This Watch, That Watch
2024 ж. 12 Мам.
13 177 Рет қаралды
Жүктеу

Wouldn't you like to be able to predict how popular a Rolex will be and how that will affect pricing? I've given it some thought and I think I've come up with a way to figure it out.
I'm not here to talk about investing and all that jazz - Watches are meant to be worn, but.... It's still fun thinking about what drives Rolex popularity.
Join me in my this little deep dive and let me know what you think.
If you enjoy - Like and subscribe of course. It really helps out the channel. 😀😀😀
For collabs and inquiries: twtw.mike@gmail.com
Cheers!

Пікірлер

  • Fun fact: As of just two days ago, John Mayer was featured in a post from an AD selling him the first White Gold Puzzle Daydate in the US. That watch is now officially “HOT”!

    @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • This was such an intelligent and thoughtful explanation. I'm not interested in Rolex but still appreciated the insight and effort. Many watch channels list the specifications of a model with some macro shots; I'm glad I found a channel that tries adding some sophisticated discussion.

    @danielk09@danielk099 ай бұрын

    • Thanks - That's what I'm trying to do - not just regurgitate facts but add a perspective. Glad you enjoyed it 😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • I watched intently without even taking a breath from beginning to end. It's an interesting analysis, and I must say I agree with you on every point, at least for the moment :). These are things I had thought about to some extent, but by laying them into 5 (+2) factors and summarizing them clearly, I feel like my perspective on future watch prices have expanded greatly. Thank you always for posting great videos.

    @wayleskim@wayleskim9 ай бұрын

    • I appreciate that you keep coming back. Cheers 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • I love your voice, I mean being yourself as something different. Not trying to fit a formula… What do many of us want? To sit in a room with friends and discuss our hobby - watches. I don’t drink or smoke but it would be like having a cigar or a nice glass of wine. And talk. It is nice to share intellectual conversations… Time for you to create a patron account = not for the money per day, but to establish a smaller group where dialogue occurs. All the best! Doug

    @dska2294@dska22947 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for the kind words. Cheers 😀

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch7 ай бұрын

  • Another Brilliant assessment. I really enjoyed your thoughtful analysis as always. Thanks. By chance, can you do a video of the state of mind for people collecting watches and going through the dilemma of choosing which watch to wear daily or how to do the rotation?

    @dstjoe@dstjoe9 ай бұрын

    • Brilliant assessment as ever 👌. Based on the end topic in the video, it would be interesting to hear you talk about how a (new) hype is triggered/started

      @cedarcanoe@cedarcanoe9 ай бұрын

    • Thanks. The topic would be super interesting but buyer and user behaviour and psychology aren’t really my strong points. If only Freud was a watch nerd 😂😂

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Best watch channel in my opinion. Very well presented and very pleasant narration. Always happy when there‘s a new upload!

    @pmr55555@pmr555554 ай бұрын

    • Wow, thank you! 😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch4 ай бұрын

  • Exception dissection of the subject! Although we all know bit and pieces of what you were explaining, you have managed to explain it so well. You must be an experienced marketing and corporate executive. Well done!👏🏻

    @pedramfirooztash8452@pedramfirooztash84526 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for that! Glad you found it worthwhile 😀

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch6 ай бұрын

  • I would love to see the same analysis on the tudor. Their line up is waaay more confussing to me than rolexes.

    @user-so7js8dj5p@user-so7js8dj5p3 ай бұрын

  • Super analysis, perfectly delivered!

    @gordo1002@gordo10029 ай бұрын

    • Thanks - Glad you liked it 😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • I said it before and I’ll sa it again…You sir have unique gift to pull the viewer (and listeners) into your content. I am so relaxed and so happy when I watch your videos. I haven’t come across on any youtuber who talks about watches with such an intelligent and fresh point off view, and you have even surpass Andrew Morgan from Watchfinder. Bravo!

    @anjav6@anjav69 ай бұрын

    • You're making a grown man blush 😂😂😂 Thanks

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Thanks for the insightful analysis

    @wongzy@wongzy9 ай бұрын

    • You bet😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • I like the badass graphic ! Good analysis

    @Copaindesmontres@Copaindesmontres9 ай бұрын

    • I know right? Pixar, eat your hear out 😂😂😂

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Great video. Thanks and Well done !

    @nitinmalhotra6938@nitinmalhotra69389 ай бұрын

    • Glad you enjoyed it!😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Excellent! Watched in Mall of Scandinavia, day 9 of my vacation.

    @structurescience@structurescience9 ай бұрын

    • 😃😂😂😂

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Wow 🎉 such a brilliant analysis! Loved the “heat map” at the end. Thank you!

    @el_manu_el_@el_manu_el_4 ай бұрын

    • Animation is my specialty 😂 Thanks 😀😀

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch4 ай бұрын

  • Brilliant video and on point in my opinion!! Looking back, the popularity of gold (particularly yellow) seems to be cyclical (popular in the 80s but not in the 2000s for example).. this effect likely affects short-term “value” but should be negligible in the long run. Keep up the good work!! 🙏🙌🏻

    @aDocandhisWatch@aDocandhisWatch9 ай бұрын

    • I have a 18yo nephew and he and his friends are all into yellow gold. You pull up a mall jewellery store catalogue and it's flooded with yellow-gold pieces. John Mayer tapped into that, to some degree.

      @thegorn@thegorn9 ай бұрын

    • Agree. Gold definitely goes in and out of fashion - Kind of like bell bottom trousers 😂😂 Do agree also, that it likely evens out over time as well. cheers 😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

    • ​​@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatchWhy wear a steel watch for 10k? It's a marketing stunt from the 70s and people still fall for it. A gold watch at a decent price at least holds some intrinsic value.

      @followyourpassion8378@followyourpassion83788 ай бұрын

  • GREAT video, made me subscribe, thank you.

    @stevenwebb9861@stevenwebb98619 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for the sub! 😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Brilliant analysis. Love from India.

    @tapaschakraborty3691@tapaschakraborty36919 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for the feedback - Appreciated 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Where do you think GMT Batman stands? Getting on at bargain $15,400 brand new 2023. Your help and guidance will be much appreciated.

    @parthjo123@parthjo1239 ай бұрын

  • Really nice and valid assessment. Being a new OP owner I somehow now know which way to go whenever I have the budget available. The position of the Rolex in the overall collection of watches is also a factor. For me for instance, the new Rolex is a start of somehow mirroring my Omega watches. With a Globemaster (OP/Datejust) and Railmaster, the “new” Milgauss might be the next one. Thanks for your insights. Very enjoyable to hear, watch and, afterwards, to think about.

    @jellebos6589@jellebos65899 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for the feedback - and happy you enjoyed the video 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Everything is cyclical-maybe even polyester bell bottom pants will come back in fashion?😎. Great video and best regards.

    @underachievingwatchcollect1878@underachievingwatchcollect18789 ай бұрын

    • We can only hope 😂😂😂

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Fantastic content. Support 🙏

    @mim5560@mim55602 ай бұрын

    • Thanks 😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch2 ай бұрын

  • Nice analysis. A couple of other factors to think about. The annual cycle of demand such as the busy holiday season & quiet summer dip. Also wondering when the new factory opens how will Rolex use that increased capacity … beef up supply of in-demand models or use the current capacity allocation?

    @AnthonyEarl@AnthonyEarl9 ай бұрын

    • I don't think the factory is going to make much of a dent. They won't be doubling capacity or anything near that level. The full scale facility won't be up and running before 2029 (with temp factories in place from 2024). My guess is, by then, any increase in supply will be offset largely by the organic increase in demand due to even more people, broadly speaking, becoming wealthy enough to afford a first time Rolex. Having said that - I think we'll start seeing some models as walk in models within the coming year if the economy stays as is. 😃😃 As to seasons - Absolutely. Completely agree there. Thanks for contributing 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Nice analysis. I disagree on verticality as I feel it’s more of an outcome of desirability rather than intentional. Further, I think you missed momentum/inertia when evaluating models.

    @mfp1016@mfp101625 күн бұрын

  • Amazing

    @stanlob1223@stanlob12239 ай бұрын

    • Thanks 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • So is it about the watch or the speculative pricing?

    @Mega-zi7ys@Mega-zi7ys9 ай бұрын

  • Going thru the archives before I found your channel. Very savvy takes - totally agree about the ‘core’ and middle. But a few things - the new blk/grey 2 tone GMT is not doing that great - only about $2600-$3k over MSRP. And glad you considered the ups/downs of the economy. I’m watching at the end of the yr - storm clouds on many countries’ horizons BUT BTC has been pumping and if the ETFs are approved there could be some new rich people looking to buy luxury watches.

    @WestCoastAce27@WestCoastAce274 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for sharing! 😀

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch4 ай бұрын

  • Great analysis! I agree with it. I have bought the new Air King and love it cos it is qwerky and not mainsteam, this is the same issue that makes this watch one that sells below retail but I bought it to wear, not as an investment and really enjoy it. Keep up the good work 👍

    @123Thucydides@123Thucydides9 ай бұрын

    • Thanks for sharing! and couldn't agree more - Buy. What. You. Like. 👍👍👍

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Unique and rare analysis too!! but just like the dollar is facing its darkest hour after being weaponized for so long, the watch market too has been blown up by the internet and e-commerce. Just how many watches do people need? just how much can watch brands raise their prices... a little deflation is most welcome before we loose interest or hope!!

    @tiempodesobrahn@tiempodesobrahn9 ай бұрын

    • Some of us dream of the days when all watches were below retail in the secondary market... Seems like just yesterday and yet it's so long ago... 👍

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Mike - almost certainly there will be other factors that stop a watch tanking (a good time to buy) or that cause an unexpected peak - you mentioned some possibilities. Thank heavens there are no **puts** and **takes** yet in the watch market but I suspect there may be other financial forces. Rolex can adjust the supply to prevent prices dropping due to over-supply.

    @chriscardwell3495@chriscardwell34959 ай бұрын

    • True - Rolex has no interest in pumpin out watches if their is a deficit of demand 😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • I think the model is accurate in concept but I think of it also in terms of elasticity with retail or just below retail as the object at rest. The baseline of rest will vary among the models by length of the rubber band. The longer the band, the more the potential for stretch, with Daytona and GMT as the models with the longest bands, and the explorer and datejust with the shortest, generally speaking.

    @BB-gl7zt@BB-gl7zt9 ай бұрын

    • Fair point and interesting perspective. 😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Can this model be applied to other brands eg Omega, Tudor, etc?

    @Masty13@Masty138 ай бұрын

    • Personally I don’t think so. Most companies don’t have as clear a lineup and very few have perpetually hyper popular models. The popularity of an omega speedy ed white doesn’t spill over to other models like it does in Rolex and the daytona. The closest I think you can get is maybe Patek or AP but that’s pretty much it, I think. 😀😀

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch8 ай бұрын

  • Hi Mike, loved the video. But wouldn’t you also want to talk more about the additional factory that rolex plans to setup ? Secondly, how will this impact the centre I.e GMT Masters and Daytona steel variants

    @ramjuneja6065@ramjuneja60655 ай бұрын

    • Thanks. Glad you enjoyed it. Watch my video "Rolex will control everything" / "What will happen with Rolex? kzhead.info/sun/q72cgsN7aaubo6s/bejne.html It covers the topic about the factory. Check it out if you haven't already. Cheers 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch5 ай бұрын

  • I own the Original Rolex Yacht-Master Ref. 16622. How my watch fit into this video and your point of view? I'm just curious. Thank you, Great video content!

    @julioerodriguez6097@julioerodriguez60979 ай бұрын

    • Good question - Since it's no longer in the line up, it kind of falls out of the scope. If it were in the current line up it would be in the same place as the current lineup, but tbh, I don't have a total overview of what the lineup when it was available looked like in detail. My guess it was even more dressy compared to the other models back then (no ceramic sub etc.) when looking at the line up at the time 😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

    • @@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Thank you for your response. I think you are the first "'u-tuber" in U-Tube that answer my questions. Have a wonderful day!

      @julioerodriguez6097@julioerodriguez60979 ай бұрын

  • Sorry to throw some cold water, but as higher interest rates take hold and people have to make rent or mortgage payments, prices for all luxury goods, including Rolex will tank. You can't eat a Sub.

    @jjlad5037@jjlad50379 ай бұрын

    • Correct 🎉 and trends change. Rolex isn't real estate or art that's limited in supply or piece unique. They are mass produced watches like Toyotas or potato chips...

      @Mega-zi7ys@Mega-zi7ys9 ай бұрын

  • Pikachu daytona on oysterflex?

    @MichaelSavage-zq6gv@MichaelSavage-zq6gv9 ай бұрын

    • I’m more partial to the white gold version but put “daytona” in the title and it’s going to be popular 😀😀

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Where do you think two tone root beer will move?

    @TIWofficial@TIWofficial9 ай бұрын

    • I have one but I think you’ll be able to buy one at retail in the near future.

      @underachievingwatchcollect1878@underachievingwatchcollect18789 ай бұрын

    • Good question: The RB is likely the two-tone model that is generally considered to be the best looking of all Rolexes two tone sports models. Only real competition might be the bluesy sub. Having said that - it's in the dead zone, so I'm thinking it's coming down even more in price. Sub retail? Depends on the economy. At current economic levels, no, but we're still in this weird economy where it's unclear which way things will go.... What are your thoughts?

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Sounds plausible

    @Ride_on54@Ride_on549 ай бұрын

    • 👍

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • A lot of the Watch KZheadrs are just sensational and driving traffic to their videos

    @DigitalJunior2003@DigitalJunior20039 ай бұрын

    • That is kind of the name of the game 😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

    • @@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch yeah but yours are different- more fact based, less sensationalist and more calming.

      @DigitalJunior2003@DigitalJunior20039 ай бұрын

  • You skipped over a tool watch with a unique trait...ie the James Cameron?

    @temptingfate759@temptingfate7599 ай бұрын

    • Cameron is an attention seeking ass.

      @Mega-zi7ys@Mega-zi7ys9 ай бұрын

    • Fair point. To me it's just an even larger sea dweller positionally. Having said the the original cameron was super popular. Cool watch if you can pull it off 😃😃😃

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • now you can wear watch at home only

    @mpiny@mpiny8 ай бұрын

    • or get robbed 😂

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch8 ай бұрын

    • yep never go SF or NYC@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch

      @mpiny@mpiny8 ай бұрын

  • Except mass produced Rolex cannot be equated to piece unique works of art or real estate. You can have 1m Rolex identical Rolexes out there but not art and real estate which are finite. Rolex is like potato chips, they churn out the same pieces in the hundreds of thousands annually... that's why you see so many of them in mom and pop shops in hk , sg, Japan and rest of southeast Asia...real ones. They are not rare.

    @Mega-zi7ys@Mega-zi7ys9 ай бұрын

  • Here are 2 more factors - geography and bling. Geography can drive more demand for say, Arabic dials. And bling... I don't think it's simply a vertical from steel to gold to platinum to diamonds or being unique. This bling, Rainbow, Eye of the Tiger, Leopard, etc. can be like piece uniques.

    @kevincwleong@kevincwleong9 ай бұрын

    • Fair point - The geographic / regional thing is definitely a component. What I see on the wrists of people in Dubai or Tokyo is often very different from what I see in London or New York. Make sense - thanks for contributing 👍👍

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch9 ай бұрын

  • Yea….but. Apple is affordable. Rolex is NOT.

    @maxinahunt8652@maxinahunt86522 ай бұрын

    • I dunno... 4000 USD for a pair of front heavy VR glasses doesn't seem super affordable to me 😉😉😂😂

      @Mike.thiswatchthatwatch@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch2 ай бұрын

    • @@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch lol. Just the phone, just enough to tell the time and date with either a watch or phone. Not VR…. 😀

      @maxinahunt8652@maxinahunt86522 ай бұрын

  • clown tool watch whos never dive

    @mpiny@mpiny8 ай бұрын

  • Instead of one million watches, they are going to produce more than two million watches per year. All made by hand😅. All the marketing of Rolex is a big scam, and people believe in it. 🤣

    @bartobruintjes7056@bartobruintjes70569 ай бұрын
KZhead