The Sanction-Fueled Destruction of the Russian Aviation Industry
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Writing by Sam Denby and Tristan Purdy
Editing by Alexander Williard
Animation led by Josh Sherrington
Sound by Graham Haerther
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
Select footage courtesy Getty and AP; Select imagery courtesy Geolayers; Select music courtesy Epidemic sound
when in a war, you can count on Wendover to make a video about the Logistics and Aviation about it.
the privilege of getting excited about new content because of a war is insane....
@@neby_nebs *laughs in weapon industrial cartel*
This comment is going to blow up
@@ArcHelios117 Same in ALL wars. Big weapons manufacturers make the big bucks, all the way down to clothing companies churning out the uniforms to wear into battle. Sad but true.
@@bazsnell3178 Obviously. Wars is only hell for the brainwashed pleb killing each other. The top of the pyramid is fine. Always have been, always will be.
A couple of days ago I took the finnair flight from seoul to Helsinki, even though it was much longer than the original path, I got too see the vast north Pole and the northern lights, which I think turned out to be worth it.
Awesome
To be honest, if I were wealthy enough to afford to fly, I’d be okay with paying a bit more to maintain the sanctions on Russia.
@@josephbegniol2051 how in the actually hell did you determine that from such a normal comment
@@thatfellarosto it’s a Russian bot
wait so did you fly below or above the northern lights?
As an Irish person, I never knew we were so dominant in the Aviation leasing industry, the more you learn
You're really not though. Ireland is dominant in the Tax Avoidance industry. Just so happens airlines (like most big companies) like avoiding taxes.
@25bever Beg to differ. The dark shadowy figures with $€ in the west that 'control' the aviation industry are either Irish or of Irish decent (1st/2nd generation). And I mean money, not loans or state backed investment cash like China or the middle east. There's a reason we're a tax haven too. Benefits our own. I live among the ultra wealthy here. The wealth is staggering. Very low key folks. So many Americans moving 'home' too the last 20 years. Not unusual to see retired military guys here at the moment actually. That's new. We've also seen an influx of wealthy British/Irish. Fund managers are busy!
@@25bever nah, it’s mostly because we founded the first Aviation Leasing company, which collapsed to form the modern companies but our tax status isn’t insignificant I will admit
Yeahh., after the earlier days when RUSSIA threatened to UNDERWATER NUKE Ireland 🇮🇪 (Country of Peace and Kindness), to add insult to Injury Ireland has hundreds of Planes on lease to RUSSIA 🇷🇺 and they are refusing to return them to Ireland 🇮🇪…… Makes me very angry as an Irishman…… When will the Russian Mothers Rise UP 😢😢😢
@atix50 Nope it's the tax. Look at Apple, Amazon and Google's tax structure. The head office that owns the product rights are in Ireland. They then lease those rights to subsidiaries in say, the UK. All the profits are generated in the UK but after paying the Irish head office there are no profits in the UK, only in Ireland where the company tax is bugger all. Everyone loses except the company. They pay nothing to the civil infrastructure and stable society that allows them to operate. It's a shitty situation.
Russia : Has trouble managing aviation Wendover: Aviation is simple. What's trouble is managing dinner
REALITY 2024 WSJ: Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft lack parts manufactured in Russia
Never doubt Sam's ability to find a way to make a plane video out of any topic EDIT: Man I did not expect so many likes and comments, thanks a lot. On another note, I'm not criticizing the plane content, I love. And I know the way is a very serious topic it was just an innocent joke.
Wat
@@hansolowe19 the channel likes to post alot of plane vids
At least we're set for another year of self deprecating HAI plane jokes now.
@@anniekoenasdi2403 planes are cool. Trains, too ☝️
Smart dude!
If aliens invaded Earth, Wendover would come out with a video about how it affected airline logistics.
More like about alien logistics.
"Can airlines survive the Xeno invasion?"
"How aliens supply their invasion"
The successful logistics of alien invasion on humanity
don't forget the video about how poorly planned the alien logistics is which will lead to their inevitable failure to conquer earth
Would love to see a follow up on this
Same. The situation has changed so fast that many videos talking about Russia at the start of the conflict are outdated and many predictions were proven false not long into the war. It's great to see how the presidctions have changed based off New info
I've been purposefully avoiding the subject of what's going on because Putin is a big baby who will destroy everything in a tantrum if he doesn't get his precious Ukraine...how much have things changed???
@@jackryan4313 the war situation has greatly developed to russias disadvantage in comparison to the start
@@tvre0 they've been fucked from the start, wdym😂their military is a damn nightmare in terms of actual strength. It's nothing. Just like it always has been. And that's the problem. Cuz Putin has a shit military, but he's got nukes. It's just a waiting game now to see if he's ballsy enough to use them. The entire world sees his military for what it is now. If only we had let the Russians fall during WW2. They helped Hitler, so we should have made them suffer the consequences. Cold War could have been avoided, as well as all of the headaches that have come from the soviets
@@jackryan4313 rather, their military has performed less than we thought it would be capable of
Everything I never knew I wanted to know about Sanctions within the Russian Aviation Industry... truly fascinating, and informative!
12 billion USD worth of aircraft have effectively been nationalized, meaning colossal losses for the lessors. A lot of people are underestimating the impact this will have on insurance premiums, leasing rates and ultimately ticket prices.
Which adds up due to sanctions as airlines now have to take far longer route. Among other things less ecological.
@@lukapreradovic4466 But probably just for those countries with autocrathic regime or bad international reputation such as Argentina. Edit: Talking just by the leasing and insurance point of view.
Not sure what the Bermudan leasing companies can do, but I'm pretty sure that Ireland will manage to get the EU to separately sanction the airlines in question until the aircraft have been returned and any value loss in long-grounded planes that have been cannibalised for parts has been compensated. There's no reason we should make it easy for these airlines to get away with theft, even once the war is over.
Many russian private owned airlines want to return the leased aircraft, but its going to be quite problematic right now
Now the world knows about Russia what Ukraine has always known - it’s a gas station masquerading as a country that steals other countries’ territory, resources and planes
It is really impressive how you know about the leasing structure and companies, Cape Town convention, repossessions etc. This is an esoteric subject which very few people outside the industry know, yet it forms the backbone of international air travel. Good work.
I'm pretty sure he is inside the industry, this channel is one of the leading KZhead channels when it comes to the topic of aviation.
Welcome to Wendover it's good to have you
@@MimOzanTamamogullar It’s 2022 and Sam is now 25 years old. And Sam has been posting videos since 2015. He can’t have been THAT much of an insider considering he’s been full-time KZhead for quite a few of those 7 years.
@@qzbnyv He could have people he knows in the industry who tells him about this stuff. This would mean that while Sam himself technically wouldn't be an insider, his videos would still be produced as if he was.
@@MimOzanTamamogullar It’s esoteric knowledge but hardly a secret or something that an intelligent person can’t understand from outside. He makes aviation videos so he and the team do a bunch of research and prep so they can get the technical details right. That simply requires good journalistic skills, not necessarily insider experience. He may also work with a technical advisor who does work in the industry.
Compliments for this video, as it is extremely well made, going into minute details without becoming boring . Thank you!
As manager director ( Airbus) I can confirm that what he is saying about..... isn't 100 percent accurate, disagree 😮😮😮
@@carlosgamarrath244proof
@@carlosgamarrath244yeah your def capping
@@carlosgamarrath244let me guess…. You think Russia’s n3o-natzee colonialism is justified?
I literally woke up today thinking on and on about how flight paths work around no fly zones or areas of war or issues in the Middle East. Being a big fan of wendover productions. I asked myself if there was any chance he would eventually one day cover the topic. He does such a great job and sites the best facts. Truly allows a ready to understand things the way he breaks them down
Let's not forget the impact this will have on safety. The reason air travel is so safe is because the industry is relatively open about mistakes made either by pilots, manufacturers, or maintenance crew. Every crash is a learning opportunity, and so it's pretty rare that two airplanes are brought down by the same flaw. The 737 MAX was a very rare exception, and it paid the price. Not so in the Soviet Union though. Accidents were swept under the rug where possible and the findings from any investigations were never made public. If you go to the Wikipedia article about incidents involving AeroFlot aircraft, the list is so long it has to be broken down into collapsible sections by decade. Russia is rapidly sliding back to those days, so I won't be surprised if Russian planes start falling out of the sky again.
Any mentions of how much airlines used to pay for flying over Russian airspace? Removing those fees will affect ticket prices in a positive way, no?
Last I heard Russia isn’t getting maintenance parts anymore so they’ll either not service their planes or do it incorrectly
@@bornasiroki3976 we dont know how much the fees were since they were not published.But it will certainly affects tickets for those who travel to asia from europe
@@jobic4207 .....hopefully - for their passengers - they have a good supply of baling wire a duct tape........
And here I thought you were going to mention long flights over arctic airspace will rely on incredibly sparse emergency landing sites
Thank you for using a globe instead of a mercator projection when showing the routes.
Yes it's very good, necessary really, when talking about anything close to the poles.
Filthy mercator flat earthers
Did he mark Crimea as Russian at at 16:32?
@@nihilsson Well if they control it then it still can’t be flown over
@@circuit10 Nobody can fly over the rest of Ukraine
I binge watched your videos on Half as Interesting for the longest time and just now found this channel! I seriously adore the content you make, keep up the good work!
Russian airlines: under sanctions. Western airlines: have to do longer flights. Meanwhile Arab airlines: business is boomin
2024 WSJ: Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft lack parts manufactured in Russia
I knew there would be a problem in Russia with the airspace restrictions, but I never really considered how it would also affect the rest of the world. I realized the closure of Russian airspace would cause routes to change, but seeing how Anchorage is such an important point in aviation is very interesting.
During the Cold War Anchorage was big!
Strangely enough Alaska was Russia’s only colony
Getting Alaska was a HUGE win for the USA.
and now when a plane has crashed, it will find the passangers frozen, which is good for investigation
Interestingly, with global warming melting the north pole, it will probably also be the busiest port in the world in the future.
Another thing to consider is that when this is all over, the leasing companies are not going to lease any planes to Russian companies. So the nationalization of the planes is really just shooting themselves in the foot for later.
Same argument can be made about the USD.....and Russian Assets confiscation, even individuals. Trust in USD as a reserve currency is at an all time low, hence fed Interest rate rise?
So they buy them instead.
"Shooting nation in the foot" is like most of crisis decisions this government made, shows you how they care about people.
@@Mali-kd1zz don't tell me you are one of those "USD will fail soooooon!" cracpot theorists
@@FlymanMS 70% of Russians approve of the invasion. Why is that you think?
I've always loved Wendover Productions. This one is off the charts. Thank you. I had a coworker with Ukrainian roots. He told me about a flight he experienced, not sure if Soviet Union or Russian eras. Most seat belts didn't work. Livestock on the plane. Plenty of vodka. Before reaching the destination, the pilot landed in "the middle of the night," some where. The plane had its own stairs built in, just like the one DB Cooper used. My friend described watching the pilot go down the stairs and pound on a door. No one answered. After a bit, he gave up, climbed back up, and took off.
Vodka and livestock ey?Sounds like the Soviet era stuff
@@PirateCat822 Most likely!
Your clownWorld is LOST: WSJ: Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft lack parts manufactured in Russia
Russian Eras - you outdated clown who stuck in Cold Era Paranoia. So funny))
I think this was one of the best summaries of the Russian Aviation situation I have seen yet on KZhead. Ergo, I am now subscribed and following Wendover daily. Good work!
It did not age well though.
I grew up in Anchorage in the 70s and 80s. About half of the time my neighbors were Japanese or Korean pilots. Right now international travel from there requires flying to Seattle first. Even though I don't live there anymore, it would be nice to see international passenger service come back.
Won't happen. Planes now have more range and can go around to the south and actually do so. An Anchorage stopover will significantly increase ticket price and I know how it was then. Aside from plane range, the Anchorage stopover was needed because of the national security law then which didn't allow Koreans to travel to communist countries except for government approved cases after anticommunist education at a facility. Two Korean airliners were shot down over the Soviet Union. This law was changed in 1991 as the soviet union didn't exist anymore and those charged before were acquitted.
As someone who lives in anchorage today, it would indeed be nice, although now that NPA announced that their first route is LAX to mexico, it is sadly unlikely.
No, Asia and Russia are too big to fly around, and going near either isn't any safer.
@@jcee2259If the West figured out how to fly around the much larger USSR with less advanced planes, they'll do the same with the smaller Russia with more advanced, modern day planes.
@@concept5631good luck competing with Chinese or middle Eastern airlines that fly straight through russia
The Comac 919 uses the LEAP engine, made by Safran (French) and GE (American). So making it free of sanctioned parts is going to be a challenge.
And China will have its own additional sanction problems when it invades Taiwan.
@@wubbalubbadubdub7597 Please, god, no. It would mean an instant jump in GPU prices. Again. It was starting to reach normal. :D
America was warned many many times that allowing all of our technological innovations to be manufactured in a communist dictatorship was a bad idea, but big business wanted to do it to save a buck and politicians of both parties caved to their demands. Now China wants to manufacture their own commercial airliner. Export of aircraft technology, and especially engines to China is specifically prohibited by ITAR laws. Oh, so we’re just going to sell them the engines. We won’t give them the technical data. I’m sure they won’t be able to take one apart and reverse engineer it, at least not for the first week or so. By next year they’ll probably have an exact copy installed in a military airplane.
@@Sekir80 I think we'd have bigger problems than GPU prices if we were to get to that point pal... Unless you're 15, then I understand why you would say something such as that.
@@singleproppilot that's capitalism buddy. You seem to love it but don't like the consequences that it brings. Corporations need to increase their profits year on year. If theyadr those products anywhere else it would cost you alot more to buy it. There is a huge consequence to all that cheap crap in Walmart.
As someone who was born in Odessa in 1975 I can confirm what he said. Odessa’s population of 1 million nearly doubled during summer months
Why?
@@concept5631Vacations. Watch the video.
@@concept5631it was one of the Soviet Union's most popular resorts
@@warmike Thanks for the info
Informative, as always ! Great work. Thank you.
I would love a deep dive video about the ramifications of the recent news that Maersk and other shipping companies are leaving Russia. What does this mean for the state of logistics in Russia? Will this affect more than just their ports, and extend to breakdowns in shipping within Russia due to the effects it might have on containerization? Will Russia just "nationalize" (steal) containers, port equipment, and computer systems? Does Maersk pulling out indicate that it's not profitable to set up shop there for anyone else? Can another company (or russia, or china) easily step in and continue operations at their port, or will it cause years of disruption to set up an expert system? Are ports owned by the state, leased, or owned by corporations. In general, I'm curious to know more about how standardized the workflow and equipment is, in the processes that are required in the computer accounting as well as the physical unloading/loading of shipments that arrive at the port. And how many different players (whether it's different companies, or state companies) that work together to get this accomplished. I could see Wendover producing an amazing video explaining these issues.
Are you Tiff Tiff?
Yes please
What sanctions, seizure of assets and tyrannical dictate mean at a functional level is that more countries now have more reason than ever to de-dollarize. And increasingly, countries are doing just that ... and as much as they can. Who, after all, wants to trade with an unreliable trading party apt to abuse the financial transaction system (SWIFT) and/or freeze assets at the drop of the hat. What would you think if your bank did that? And by the way, the non-stop invading of countries and instituting a questionable planetary world heath tyranny is not really an awe inspiring foreign policy either. And although countries don't vocalize this sort of thing out loud, don't think for a minute that by now some of the various intelligence agencies around the world have not figured out a thing or two over the past two years, For airlines in particular, adding huge numbers of flight hours to flights has to mean big raises in air fares to cover huge increase in fuel costs (adding to inflation). As to Russia, sanctions are just more of a reason to make their own stuff, and maybe more reason to lease less from undependable foreign suppliers. Basically, this thing with the Ukraine, sanctions and bullying the world in process is going to do much more damage to the United States and its 'allies' than to Russia or China. Power and industrial clout continues to shift to the East. The United States continues to unravel.
@@davemason9555 dave, youre reading this from a russian point of view. no other nation is going to just up and invade their neighbor for no reason any time soon. so, why would anyone want to trade with russia when they dont honor treaties or international law.
@@davemason9555 US dollar dominance has violated the fundamental law of physics and also human species: second law.
The biggest difference with closure of Russian airspace and the cold war is that now only Russian airspace is closed, which makes a route over Kazakhstan and China possible for flights between eg. Frankfurt-Tokyo and thus not all flights will be operated over the North pole or Alaska
Why does it make a big difference?
@@fabianr9394 China's air space is huge having to route around it would add massive amounts of time to flights
@@mythicalducky oh okay, thought it was meant in a positive way.
Also, the Caucasian Corridor avoids both Russia and Iran.
@@fabianr9394 Fuel use as well as time.
most insightful video !! fast pace, well written, impactful !! thank you.
I absolutely love these documentaries. Learn ssooo much.
Finnair's advantage has been it's ability to fly one return route between Europe and Asian cities in 24 hours, which has made it's routes and fleet usage really economical. Same time Helsinki Airport is still pretty small and transit times are short.
Finlands location has been great for Finnair. Before Soviet Union airspace was closed, Finnair was the first airline flying non-stop from Europe to Japan. Nowadays the same location helps to cut traveltime to Asia about 2 hours compared to flights from mainland Europe. Finnair has 17 destinations in Asia + four seasonal ones, one of the most by European carrier. This flight ban makes a huge cut into Finnairs operations. Good thing Finland owns majority of Finnair, so it will not go bankrupt.
Finnair is definitely taking a major hit here. They must also anticipated this situation to drag on for some time because they just canceled the HEL-CTS (Helsinki - Sapporo, Japan) itinerary I had booked for September, 2022. That’s 6 months from now!
Interst in planes on a normal day=0 Insterst in planes when Wendover uploads = 90000
Yes
It's over 9000!!!!!!
Nicely detailed and explained. Thank you
Great information... well presented !
More interesting than Northern Pacific, to me, is Alaska Airlines new potential. They already operate out of Anchorage. They already have a large fleet. There have been rumors that they’re looking into buying 787‘s. They’re already primed to have a great connecting network to the lower 48 as well. If Alaska plays their cards right, this might be a huge win for them as well, or instead of northern Pacific.
In 1983 I left London for Tokyo we flew over Alaska. I saw little lakes, little seaplanes. little houses. I saw one road: horizon to horizon. Anchorage was a little airport. Humans had not ruined the vastness of the country. I was a lucky boy. And Japan airlines was wonderful. Not like BA.
Maybe, maybe not. If the sanctions get lifted, whatever boom that occurs in Alaska is going to disappear overnight.
A fleet to little tiny planes, not capable of competing in international routes, with big planes, capable of hauling people, and cargo!!!!! Does AA even fly east of the rockies? Don't think they are even in Chicago.
You know that the HQ of Alaska Airlines is in Seattle, right? I know that y'all think that Seattle is in South Alaska, but the Alaska Air network in the lower 48 has been comprehensive for 20 years,. Maybe because, you know, they didn't foresee the Russian invasion of Ukraine...
@@paulstewart6293 PFtt "Humans had not ruined the vastness of the country."... Bet your life is not without impact.
What’s insane is all these planes leased by Russia are all up for repossession and one was even repossessed in Mexico. I’d have loved to see that live-streamed.
@Beavis & Butthurt Why not?
I can't believe countries got away with basically stealing planes.
they are not planes they are expensive paperweights
Odds are they will be dismantled and sold as parts to China for domestic flights there.
@@Vassilinia Why? It's incredibly easy. You think a country that has no qualms about invading a neighbour and slaughtering thousands of civilians would have a moral objection to stealing essential property?
Everyone: Ww3, pandemic, volcanos, earthquaks, astroids, armageddon??? Wendover: "Planes."
Good video. One minor comment- the c919’s engine is the LEAP engine. While Chinese engineers are working on a domestic cj1000 engine, it planned for entry in 2025 and is quite likely to be delayed. Therefore, since the engine (along with numerous other parts) is western, this cannot be sold to Russian airlines.
At first I wondered if COMAC would work with Aviadvigatel to offer a PD-14 engine version of the C919 for the Russian (and other sanctioned) markets, but I think there's a few reasons this won't be on the cards. Firstly, the Russian govt won't want to create competition for the MC-21, which is competing in the same class as the C919, and which has, thanks to sanctions, had the A32x/B737 eliminated from the game. Secondly, the C919 uses a ton of *other* western components as well as the engines (including avionics, HVAC, landing gear, hydraulics, electrical systems and more), so swapping for Russian engines really wouldn't make much difference. The MS-21 also has a lot of foreign systems, but Russia has long legacy of domestic civil aviation that China doesn't, and would find substituting these foreign systems for domestic analogues much easier, as many of them already exist from the IL-96, TU-204/Tu-214 and IL-114. Indeed, if push came to shove, and we enter a prolonged period of Russian isolation, they could even scrap the MS-21 altogether and instead update the older, but already existing and entirely domestic TU-204/TU-214, using the PD-14 engines, new interior, aerodynamic tweaks and the like. I suspect Sino-Russian co-operation would move more to the CR-929 which is much less mature, so can relatively easily be "sanctions-proofed" from the outset, and both countries would benefit from co-operating. Though Russia does have the IL-96, it is difficult to update, as ultimately a quad-jet is still a quad-jet, and as a Soviet design evolution of the IL-86 it was designed for robustness rather than economy - it's very over-engineered and inherited a lot of the IL-86s innovative but decidedly left-field design choices, and even before the war it was clear that Russia couldn't realistically finance (let alone project manage - something post-Soviet Russia has struggled with) a completely new wide body design.
@@lmlmd2714 Very good points, although I think cooperation between China and Russia on a new aircraft is unlikely, as the Chinese will want to sell any new airliner to the west. Obviously including Russian parts on the aircraft would preclude that.
Russians know how to make engines too. What do think their migs use to fly? Brooms?
@@simplyincorrigible7708 you would need to totally redesign the plane for a new engine, which would take most of a decade.
@@jackroutledge352 The CR-929 is semi-Russian owned and is an ongoing project. Could China manufacture a de-Russianised jet? Possible but they wouldn't do it unless there is a big demand from the countries that sanction Russia. That won't happen. Though licensed manufacturing of Russian parts in China is possible. I guess that would enable marketing of the jet in the West. The C-919 is another topic. It is 100% Chinese owned but has a LOT of Western parts. It was a project planned for profits in a completely different age. Since Trump, the Chinese companies' and government's view on foreign tech have changed a lot. Before that buying as much Western tech as possible was considered the best business plan for many reasons. Indigenization projects were overwhelmingly central government driven. Now Western tech (particularly American) is viewed toxic and is avoided if possible. Even private corporations with no gov support are investing in domestic tech and choosing domestic products even if that costs them. They don't want to become the second Huawei. The C-919 will likely have a 100% Chinese variant in future.
A little off topic, but I wanna applaud y’all for using a GLOBE to illustrate this video. Map projections just aren’t up to scratch on these flights that go near the poles.
"Can Russian aviation survive without the West?" I really REALLY hope not.
you lost, clown))) WSJ: Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft lack parts manufactured in Russia
Nice video. I thoroughly enjoyed it. Had no idea that the airlines leased their aircraft. Thanks😎😎😎
These stolen aircraft are essentially paper weights now. They might fly them domestically, but they will never see NA & EU airspace again. Even if the war ends and access to airspace is reinstated. The maintenance cycles of these particular planes have been interrupted, It will be a mystery where any replaced part has been sourced from. Parts smuggled across borders, recycled from different planes and "homemade" parts are the dramatic consequences. All aircraft parts have to be traceable, which will no longer be possible. They are tainted and no longer usable since the moment they were stolen.
You mean you wouldn't want to fly an airline whose maintenance is suspect?? Where's your sense of adventure?!?
They can make service of their planes in Armenia, Kazakhstan, or even China. Just as any other sanctioned countries do today. It will cost more though
@@bennails3447 If those planes land there, they'll be repossessed.
@@_loss_ By Xi Jinping? I'm not that optimistic as you :)
They might be reused into military transport planes over NATO airspace
The fact that we get free documentaries on KZhead by Wendover Productions is truly a gift 👍
Can the west survive without russia? That should be the headline. This channel is nothing special. It is similar to cnn and msnbc.
Helsinki is such a nice airport and as a Finn it would be sad to see fewer people there. But I'm happy and interested to see Anchorage gain popularity and recognition, it truly is well positioned in a changing world.
Helsinki is nice except for the dungeon they had all of their flights to Russia departing from before the war (the gates are down stairs in a dim room that just has large metal benches with no back support). It was clear what the Finns thought of the Russians..
@@alquinn8576 they left from the normal jetbridges...
Excellent! I confess that I had not thought the sanctions through in such far-reaching manner.
The Sun: I have become a supernova and am about to destroy everything in the solar system including planet Earth Wendover Productions: What is happening with Airlines' business model and logistics
You don't take into account, that fuel prices become higher and higher, so it's not so easy to fly longer than now, every additional flight hour costs higher price. Some of air company can't allow this price. Flying longer means additional maintenance service.
U are right..that's what's wrong with the Western analytics.they always think that they're not affected by the sanctions they impose.
@@samuelsuse8746 We are fully aware it will affect us you fool.
Oil prices only increased for Western buyers while within Russia crude prices collapsed. So its possible Russian airlines are getting oil products like jet fuel at a much cheaper price.
We now have Zoom instead. Freight will go through rail and its derivative, quasivacuum tubes. We needn't business trips anymore and countries don't welcome tourists as they have increased restrictions on travellers. An example is Korea'x ETA which performs very tough background checks on those who want to enter the country.
@@AhmedW-sy9ti russian airlines rely on overseas maintenance and tools. most of them will be grounded permanently. the weak ruble will make purchasing overseas parts too costly adding to the ticket price
The interesting part of all this is what will happen after the war? As the Russians have now demonstrated that international law is meaningless, I’m thinking that aircraft manufacturers will be extremely reluctant to lease any aircraft to any Russian airline for a very long time. The Ruskies better hope that China builds good copycat airplanes, cause that’s where they’ll be shopping for replacement planes. Will be interesting to see whether Boeing or other US manufacturers will be allowed to sell to Russia down the road.
This poor guy must be out of breath by the end.... Great Video!!!!!!
I work for a research company specializing in global infrastructure development and I use your content as a recommendation to people outside of the industry who want to learn about certain issues Top tier KZhead content right here
This is one of the most intelligently, well-thought-out, and watchable videos I have seen recently regarding the consequences of sanctions and our new reality. So informative and necessary, takes me back in some cases - I've flown that Anchorage route, and the Finnair route to the Far East. The more things change, the more they may go back to being the older version of itself.... 💯👏👏👏🙂
@nehem Nevertheless the Anchorage stopover worked successfully for many years. You must also realise that, after two air disasters, confidence in Malaysian Airlines has taken somewhat of a beating. There may be other airlines that will fly into Russian airports, Etihad, Emirates, for instance, but then again, the West can make it very (ahem!) difficult to continue to do so on any worthwhile basis, altering flight patterns/air space (nothing like Alliances!) and so forth. It's been done before.
@@surquhart64 You can't just go around sanctioning the whole world. And the west knows it. For instance, America isn't happy with India now toeing its line on Russia, and yet they haven't sanctioned India yet. Why not? Cos they want to keep this isolated to Russia, the fallout of which they think they can absorb. If you start sanctioning every country that doesn't bow to your demands, you're quickly going to find yourself with a copious quantities of egg on your face. Your alliance is literally a minority of the world population, and worlds' nations. The west is not the world, nor is it infallible. Pride, as they say, comes before a fall.
@nehem Cry more Russian bot
i just realized that every single sentence he says rhymes
Writers: So, we could talk about the capabilities of the Russian and Ukrainian air forces, or what goes into supplying them... Sam: *airlines*
To be fair such a detailed vid on Russian Logistics and Strategies would unironically be more detailed and more in depth than the actual russian plans
The "writers" is Sam, and Sam knows nothing about military aviation.
Also, with the way this invasion is going, I'm not sure there is a lot of publicly available and reliable information about air force capabilities out there.
Even if when sanctions are lifted Russian aircrafts will be difficult to certified for international flights as lack of maintenance will be difficult to remove.
That, and you know. That they don't own them.
@@PerErikKarlsson I am pretty sure Putin has taken loan from China for Russian aircrafts.
These stolen aircraft are essentially paper weights now. They might fly them domestically, but they will never see NA & EU airspace again. Even if the war ends and access to airspace is reinstated. The maintenance cycles of these particular planes have been interrupted, It will be a mystery where any replaced part has been sourced from. Parts smuggled across borders, recycled from different planes and "homemade" parts are the dramatic consequences. All aircraft parts have to be traceable, which will no longer be possible. They are tainted and no longer usable since the moment they were stolen.
@@PerErikKarlsson Worse, leasing companies will be more hesitant for any negotiations with Russian carriers. Sure, Putin is more to blame than carriers, but can you blame those companies not wanting to take any chances anymore?
@@dbclass4075 i hope no one do any business with Russia until there is a change in government.
I have seen this one 4 times and i absolutely love it
thank you for mentioning frankfurt to tokyo flight. i am japanese living in germany and struggling now what the safest, cheapest and fastest way to get to japan. i know the anchorage route because i flew that route back than. but i was a baby so cant remember. 18h sounds though but with modern planes with enternainment devices on each seat and be able to drink alcohol at my age, 18h sounds fair to me.
I was so ignorant about how strategic Anchorage is so any audience member working at Anchorage airport? Did the recent geopolitical events significantly increase the traffic in that area?
I was surprised he talked so much about the new opportunities in Anchorage, but didn't mention China. Last I checked FR24, it was business as usual for them. Chinese airlines have a huge potential to dominate the Asia-Europe market as long as they can fly the shortest possible route across Russia, while almost everyone else is at a disadvantage.
As a resident of anchorage, I can confirm air traffic has increased immensely since the start of Covid, and will continue to do so. Because of the location, it will be a crucial component. Remember, Alaska is the northernmost, easternmost, and westernmost state.
@@elimckenzie7095 I went to my Korea assignment from leave back in the early seventies on a commercial flight. We were in Anchorage in the early AM just as the sun came up and lit up the mountains. One of the most beautiful things I've ever seen. Have had a soft spot for Anchorage ever since. They were busy then and I hope they get busier. I was also impressed with how well the ground crews worked in the November weather. Remember it clearly after almost 50 years.
@@justsomeguy5103 exactly! Though about that aswell. Same for ANA and Thai Airlines.
@@justsomeguy5103 I hope Sam expands on this in a follow-up video. The impact on China's airline and aviation industry could be huge. They're going to get a huge number of connecting flights and probably sell a lot more planes. Add in sales to Russia of planes and parts.
Thank you for answering the questions I was personally asking about the sanctions and Russian airspace. I hope I connect through Anchorage at some point in my lifetime now
Anchorage has a great wildlife taxidermy display.
I would gladly layover in Anchorage for a day or two, especially if the ticket price is a little bit cheaper.
I don't think you do lol !!! Connecting through a US airport means you need to take your lugage and register it again on the connecting flight (and go through security again). Except if you are from the US in the first place, but even in that case, that only work for one way !
It's stunning. You should! Spend some time there, too...
If you do it during the summer, then Anchorage is wonderful.
Excellent analysis.
Thank you. That was a concise, well-structured and understandable post. Well done.
“Hey, Sam from Wendover, Russia just declared war on Ukraine.” “I’m gonna make a video on it.” “And you’re not gonna make it about the aviation industry, right?” “…” “You’re not gonna make it about the aviation industry, right?”
@@sotrue2976 🤡
@@sotrue2976 cope harder
@@sotrue2976 go on and put more cope cages and seethe bags on your tanks
*Disappointed Natalie Portman face*
0:06 With one rambling justification, and a subsequent brazen invasion came a cascading series of implications that brought the golden era of global aviation cooperation to a screeching halt ..My man had some cold bars
Not at all related to video but please make a video about the Klag Bay Airport, it’s in Alaska but only has scheduled flights to India and Bangladesh, and I can’t find anything more on it
With Russia violating their aircraft repossession signature on that international agreement I think that they should not be allowed to ever enter into another international agreement such as that again thus borrowing them from ever being able to enter international agreements that they will violate. They have made it very clear they will only honor those agreements until they decide to go to war and disagree with you at which point they will no longer honor them that is not how that should work
Ahaha, you are saying this like US and EU didn't violate lease agreements and closed airspace. It is like you can do whatever you want and for Russia is no no. This is not how it works weirdo
@@JulioCezar-we9zo US and EU violate the agreements? Sources?
oops WSJ: Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft lack parts manufactured in Russia
Can you imagine the happiness of Anchorage airport owner? It was useless for decades, but now it'll became a new transport hub, such as Dubai or Stambul
Can you imagine the happiness of Chinese airlines that do not need to fly into anchorage? Who do you think will have less expenses?
@@user-cq4tl8yp1y we will see
@@user-cq4tl8yp1y Western+ korean+ japanese airlines will get crushed! They will soon run out of business. ALL Gulf carriers pay discounted fuel , fly over Russia when needed. Nobody will pay 500Euro extra in Europe for flights to Asia. The biggest looser will be Lufthansa. Very soon nobody will order cargo routes with them, because that´s loosing time and money.
I'm honestly impressed by the time and effort you put into these videos. Keep it up! 👍👍👍
🤚
Just subscribed, God bless, keep it up Ace.
crazy how no one's mentioning the crazy rhyme scheme from 0:06 - 0:17 that shit was 10 seconds of straight gas
It's unlikely that Anchorage will get big customer usage. There is already a big demand for direct flights to Dubai, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Kuwait. This means airlines can simply increase capacity at these routes, by flying bigger aircraft. We could even see the return of the A380 as these connecting routes require more capacity. The customer gets shafted with an extra 2 hours flight time, but the airlines don't have to worry about additional costs or fuel burn. Dubai etc will love this, and will likely expand their airports to facilitate the extra flights, while increasing fees as a way to generate revenue.
Anchorage will still get a bump.
"World ending meteor hitting the Earth" Wendover : But the effects on Aviation though.
Be interesting to see if Anchorage International Airport becomes the 'Crossroads of the World' again as it was in the mid-80s. Maybe not, planes can fly further distances then they could then; still going to be an increase of air traffic I would think.
It’s going to become the cargo hub of the world, but probably not the passenger one.
WOW! This was awesome. Really nice done @wendover.
The laughter-fueled tear that's running down my cheek right now..
Theyre not sanctions theyre “Special economic operations”
"You market should be free..... for us to take over!" Theres not a single country with "free market" in this world, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela arent even at war. And hell, Iran has ALWAYS been the country TO BE ATTACKED, never really attacks anyone but it also got sanctioned.
@@meganoobbg3387 Iran attacks Israel constantly.
According to the US - the country that couped the first and last president of Iran, the country that attacked Iran after they revolted against the US backed monarchy in 1980, and the country that Iraq attacked during a time when Saddam and the US were BFFs. Im really sad Iran "attacked" the famous "liberal" and "free" countries of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon and Yemen - none of which are US backed dictatorships. XD
@N Fels You misspelt the US.
They are a declaration of war
Pacific US routes seem to only increase slightly. ORD Chicago via Anchorage, Tokyo, to Hong Kong increased only 5% from a direct route over Russia. The costs to European airlines are clearly the most affected but the war and the threat of larger aggression are in their back yard.
Anchorage is freight only. A passenger plane travel through Anchorage would be very expensive and this was the way I travelled in the past. Planes go southwards instead. Freight planes have shorter range and this is why they go through Anchorage which is similar to a marshalling station (without gauge change).
@@softmechanics3130 Plus, Anchorage is an ideal sorting hub for packages between North Asia and North America.
@@dbclass4075 Thus freight only
@@softmechanics3130 Mostly freight. Alaska Airlines do operate few passenger flights on that airport.
That's nice, the way you use Polar views, to remind us all that the Earth is a globe and the shortest route is not left to right on a 2D map.
I think the term “pissing on your chips” is apt here. Lol.
There are a few channels I go to for explanations of complex issues. This is one of them. Thank you Wendover!
Superlative video. Very informative and well done, as always!
The USSR was extremely innovative. Brilliant engineers and scientists.
It was the moment you highlighted the increased travel time between London and Murmansk that my jaw dropped open. War is brutal. My summer holiday to Murmansk is cancelled.
Poor baby. A ruined vacation! The hardship Cheers
Better to stay at home.
@@parnamsaini4751 wooosh
To be fair, GDS software was never fully functional for transfers to or from some Russian airlines. I often flew LAN to UUD bidirectionally, and while on paper bags were checked to destination, we had to claim and recheck at DMD every time including as recently as '18
this is due to the customs as you were switching international flight to domestic
That is very unlikely a problem with GDS, but more of an issue with the USA. The only time I have ever had to claim and recheck bags was arriving or departing USA with a connecting flight within USA territory. Any other country in the world - never had an issue. Connecting through Istanbul for example, you could leave your bags in transit even up to 24 hours between flights, yet during that time you could personally leave the airport and go into the city for the day. Back to the USA, AFAIK, it is the only country in the world where transit passengers require a visa for the USA, even if they never technically enter the country. Quite ridiculous.
You don't mention another important part of aviation: software. If Lufthansa Technik is not servicing Russia anymore, I bet Lufthansa Systems, the biggest aviatiom software provider will do the same, and that means at best retraining your whole staff, and reengineering your IT infrastructure to a competitor's product, and at worst, having to build your own alternative software, which will take years, and millions of Euros.
Don't you mean trillions of rubles?
@@billolsen4360 lol 😆 😂
They will use abacus and paper.
Everyone knew perfectly well what would happen with foreign exchange reserves, aircraft and a bunch of other things. Although I do not share Putin's policy, he is definitely not an idiot, this was done on purpose, the Russians now have a strong opinion that the West cannot be trusted in anything at all and everything must be done within the country.
@@user-cb2df9zy6d Maybe China gives some old trains
Great program.
Would be good to consider how Anchorage could help a new airline use Boom Aerospace's new supersonic plane with a 5,500 NM range. Could the old airstrips on Midway Island be turned into a refueling depot to allow Trans Pacific supersonic trips?
I love that you mentioned LH716. I was literally on it yesterday. Not to mention how much longer flights from Tokyo to Germany/Europe take now. Great video as always!
1:00 - The Tupolev Tu-154 is equivalent to the Boeing 727, not the Boeing 707. The 727 had 3 rear-mounted engines, while the 707 had 4 wing-mounted engines.
Who cares really
@@lilshrimp5781 its definitely not you
He isn't talking about apperance but their role. The Boeing 727 is smaller and shorter range than Tu-154.
@@vectorpacer2063 i agree
@N Fels well said. Russian technology is easily 3-40 years behind American/Western technology. They just buy bots to spread their lies and propaganda around the internet to make people think Russia is actually modern.
I recently took that Detroit to Seoul flight, and I just want to say that 14 hours is the best case, my flight took a little over 16 hours because there were also strong headwinds. So add this with the time change, and My flight left at 1:00pm on a Monday and did not land in Seoul until 7:00pm Tuesday, I basically lost an entire day.
Considering that it's 1/2 around the world its still extremely quick.
Ah yes but when you fly home it only takes 30 minutes
@@kaixiang5390😂😂
Very informative…thanks
I love how even economics defeats flat earthers
Most comprehensive article so far on sanctions impact. Should be on all national news networks. Lease info and Lufthansa spare parts info was insightful and significantly damaging. Good job reporting.
Why no sanctions when the US destroyed Iraq? Lybia? Syria? Vietnam?
this channel definitely will be played in classes in the future
Great info.
Sam, of those ‘Internationally Leased’ aircraft that the Russians have, what % of them were inside Russian-allied territory at the time that all of the flights stopped? Were there many already in international airports that could be seized? Or were they mostly in Russia?
A lot, airlines only buy about half-75% of their capacity, the rest are all leased
I know of one in Egypt where the crew had to beat a hasty retreat with the plane to keep it from being repossessed.
Most were already in russia. There were a few that im aware of that were seized in some places but very few were reposed in time.
They gave them like three days to get home. Stupid move. Should have repoed them immediately.
They can't leave Russia pretty much every now because they will not be serviced or fueled by anyone in the west.
Whenever a world event happens, I am eagerly waiting for wendover productions' video on the effects it will have on aviation.
Civil aircraft operations are vital to supporting military operations. Air freight for example is critical to military supply systems. Nearly all military logistics is in effect an extension of civilian systems which originally produce then deliver what armed forces use.
These video's are the one's that make flat earthers rage 😂
Was just thinking earlier today “damn, I wish Wendover would release a new video soon!” Thank you! ^^
When I first watched this video when it first came out, I had no idea what GDS systems were. Rewatching this video 3 months later, I realised that Amadeus is the same software I've been planning flights with for the last 2 months.
Anchorage is not just a refueling stop, it used to be a ginormous cargo hub as well. Cargo airlines don't usually stop just to refuel. Whenever cargo airline lands, they usually have at least part of the cargo offloaded and replaced with something else to maximize efficiency. Looks like anchorage will get back some of its former glory. Time to get stocks there, temporary at least.
I'm currently almost graduating to work as an aircraft mechanic but watching wendover gets me really interested in the logistics of the aviation industry lmao. Know any jobs in the aviation industry that does logistics?
I mean if you get a degree in mathematical computation or applied statistics you can work in any industry’s logistics branch
You can get a degree in aviation management. It’s not solely logistics but involves a lot of the same concept
2:11 To be fair, the Warsaw pact countries were available for travel too, my mother visited all of them. But she was not permitted to go to London because she wasn't a member of the Communist Party.
I wonder how it worked the other way. Could people from NATO countries easily visit Warsaw Pact countries?
@@marekpodgorny9089 I think the commenter and their mom are/were in Russia/USSR, not in Poland.
@@Spacemongerr Yes, exactly. The video talks about USSR, I thought it was obvious.
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 I can say about USSR - not easily, but it was certainly possible. There was a special tour operator called Intourist.
Marek had some interesting info though, I wish he didn't delete his comment. He was saying that someone he knew in Poland could travel to London even though they were not a party member. So restrictions were lesser in other WP countries (at least Poland) than in USSR.