EO Nashville - Peter Zeihan, March 5, 2024

From one Zeihanite to another, thank you sir.

Nah Zeihanists

Zeihanite. has a ring to it. I like it and Thanks. Q&As tend to be more lively and informative. still remember the one where Kim il Sung allegedly slipped in the shower and fell on a couple of bullets.

Dude! Thanks

I still like listening to it even though ive heard it a bunch

Finally someone do knows alot can pretend to know everything and frame it in a way to make you think he's a centrist and not a schill for the liberal establishment

😄

If you are interested, Peter's audiobooks are a hoot. The latest one especially comes off a bit like stand up comedy...in a manner. Really entertaining and worth the coin, also generally available at libraries. Most libraries have digital offerings too, so check it out!

@@sidequestsally Yes, Peter's audio books are a great way to sample his thinking. Actually, he reminds me of that occasional college professor whose office hours were actually worth attending.

He is either the best source of free geopolitical advice or one hell of a psyop. Either way, he is endlessly entertaining to watch.

@@burneternallylol, very fair point. The angle he has regarding the Chinese balloon was one that I haven't heard ANYWHERE else. He's definitely in the same room as folks in the know that are, how shall we say, "op-ish" lol. If I'm his useful idiot, at least I'm being properly entertained at the same time.

@@Indrid__Coldif you haven't yet, sign up for his daily vids on his website. Good fun.

I'd love to see him on a debate stage. A presidential debate.

There are so many trolls. Since he is mostly pro US in his views, you can only conclude that the overseas propaganda click farms are the source for a lot of outright negative and trolling comments. The politically based comments? (Sigh). Probably US based.

If you haven't done it, subscribe to his newsletter on his website. Monday through Friday you'll get Peter on his morning walk talking for a few minutes about something that probably bears no relationship to yesterday's topic or tomorrow's topic. I've lived a long time and before Peter, I had never thought too much about how important geography is or demographics. Makes you look at things differently. A lot of his topics inspire me to learn more about whatever. And he's fun to listen to! Gotta like the guy. He's been asked if he has a photographic memory and he said not exactly, he just has a very good memory. Way better than mine!

There is no competition between them. Not really. What, fishing rights?

Lol...us Canadians have a competitive economy to the US at high end skill. But we have such cheap oil that the US let's us sell everything else in exchange. But they don't view us as harmless.

I’m pretty sure his talks are heavily influenced by who is paying him the most for private consultations.

@@aaronlohr8477 that would be called the establishment.

@@mobilecivilian6124 that’s a less articulate way to say it.

I have heard that part of the consulting business is to tell the client what they want to hear. Plus, everyone has their own bias.

I entered college 2005. 6 years later, after treading water, I changed to trade school in2011 and got a job in aerospace manufacturing. Now the boomers are retiring and there are no Gen x to run things here. Made leadman in 2021 and in 5 years I am going to aim for management. The price in all this was giving up on a family and dating. Not sure if it was worth it, to be honest.

Yeah, same here. Dating was put off to pay the loans & catch up career wise which really made it too late to start a family. Also not sure if it was worth it@@FuImaDragon

Yup me too!

@@FuImaDragonI feel for you. Hopefully dating and family prospects are on your horizon, because nothing in the work world will make up for its absence. Good luck

Futurists deal in multiple futures…scenarios. Peter is great, and I’m a fan, but he attempts to predict the future, so not really a futurist. He also makes the mistake of stacking assumptions. It makes for great narrative, but less than great analysis. So, he says: A is going to happen, B is going to happen and C is going to happen. When explains D, it seems obvious and he sounds like a genius, but in order for D to be right, A, B AND C have to be right. Being right about A, B or C is hard…really hard. Being right about A, B AND C…almost impossible. So, if you think of his predictions as an elaborate, plausible scenario…very useful. If you think of it as the inevitable result, you’re going to be very disappointed. It’s a house of cards.

What is a soul and what is it comprised of? I think its a bit like a unicorn. Doesn't exist.

​@@IloveDoubleD how about it being a figure of speech regarding the mental struggles that will come with everything zeihan is saying. Doesnt have to be noncorporial.

Not yet they ain't.

According to Peter, all of history was like except for the age of the baby boomers was the only time when men’s souls weren’t being tried.

I was born for this.

Happened to me once. Noticed that his morning video was from a hotel just down the street. I frantically looked up his name and my city, found he had just started speaking, and slipped out of work for an hour.

I already checked and they aren’t public ahead of time and he only speaks at conferences and industry shows and govt training etc. such a shame bec just to hear him in person would be cool

He is represented by a speaker's bureau. So if you contact them they should be able to let you know when and where he's speaking at. The military talks are probably off limits, but the business conferences should mostly be available for tickets.

I would love to see what they would say about him

Why would he go down to their level? lol

Poor bastards!

Easy he can't just BS

Depending on the speed with which that occurs I wonder what the market would be for mercenary companies like the ones we employ for ground operations to begin manufacturing their own ships to protect whatever remains of the shipping industry.

LOL I now can’t I hear that. He is usually more practiced.

They are designed here, but are largly fabbed in Taiwan.

You can check out the armed services materials on that topic. It depends on available infrastructure or potential for it. Trains require tracks. Trucks prefer good roads but its not a must although bad roads would mean either smaller loads or beefier trucks. Long distances are best served by trains. Huge loads with little fuel. It also depends on the location, output capacity and storage capabilities of structures involved in mining, refining, production and sales. If we could get our shit together we could essentially rebuild our infrastructure from ground up in a way that would allow higher efficiency, better quality and lower cost that was also practically sustainable in the long term environmental sense. When I mention sustainability I do not mean it like the Agenda 2030 people do either. I tend to think they suffer from narcissistic myopia. Their solutions are meant to sound good and make their believers feel good. They either neglect to inform them of the cost in suffering their solutions impose or try to write it off as a necessity for the sake of the future.

lol same! biden is sunsetting walking into walls deficating his pants

​@@postskeetclaritykzhead.info/sun/gZppk8mRiZ6PZYE/bejne.htmlfeature=shared

There are transcripts of all those calls or so I've heard. However, I have no proof of the source. Peter has a pretty good research team.

Why does it lose value if you live in there?

you literally just described a bubble - it's only a store of value if you can convince some sucker to buy it. And then that person has to convince some other sucker to buy it.

@@GSicKz Superstition, don't want to buy a home someone else has already lived in.

@@zapfanzapfan that's crazy and unsustainable

@@GSicKz Yes, but it's an investment. Unfortunately for whoever bought it there are not enough future buyers... it's the mother of all housing bubbles...

Well I am swedish and I love going around naked.

Not walking around naked outside this time of year, except my friend who bathes in a hole in the ice. Brrrrr 🥶

Easy - just search on "Peter Zeihan mexican cartels". He's done a few videos on the cartels. I think one was a short series. Other than Peter, I've no clue, but I'm sure there must be a few.

@@mjpfl8131he widely wrong on the Mexican drug cartels. He mentions cocaine and that drug is nowhere near the dominant force it once was it’s all about heroine or opium based products that is effecting Americans.

If Russia decides that they have to use the nukes to get what they want, America could lose a couple of cities. Atlanta and Detroit don’t have any particular vulnerabilities; he just picked two cities to try to shock the audience about how serious this is.

The bailouts were in 2008-9, so he was talking about the pre-2014 situation.

Otherwise and a few other assumptions he had, I really enjoyed his perspective and experiences.

I honestly can't think of any. The demographics can't be changed. The Chinese birthrate keeps declining. I follow China to the extent I'm able and reports out of China mention Xi stockpiling food and oil. Kindergartens are closing for lack of kids. Unemployment is up, but no one knows what the real number is. For the last year+, some of the China sources report vague comments in Xi's speeches about "preparing for hard times" and so on. He also tells the unemployed to go home to the rural areas many in the cities came from. No idea how many have done so. Xi is said to want to return to the "pure" ideology of Mao. That's horrifying. Mao is believed to have been responsible for more deaths - mostly of his own people - than either Stalin or Hitler. If this is the model Xi believes China should follow - OMG! One of the sources I like is "China Observer" on KZhead. The channel was founded by the Falun Gong, one of the religious sects badly persecuted by the CCP. Look them up on Wiki. Some call them a cult, but what matters to me is that they are anti-CCP Chinese. There are still a couple million or so members inside China. They're known to have some tech skills and a lot of their videos include videos they find on Chinese social media and send out past the firewall. Those anecdotal vids give a lot of insight into what's happening. Of course, there are also any number of academic experts and a lot of other KZheadrs on China who specialize in the economy, military and so on. "China Observer" often gives me a starting point for further research. Peter's strong point is data. His weak point is under-estimating the ability of people to do something really good or really bad that might make no sense, but they do it anyway. What Xi might do is totally unpredictable. What is predictable is the fact that their society is aging and people aren't having babies (regardless of the modest incentives the govt. is offering). Will Xi set up some sort of program to force women to have babies? The govt. clamped down on "non-medical" abortions a couple years ago. New marriages are down. Young people talk about the "no's" - it was 4 "no's" and now it's 11 or something like that, but in essence it's "no love, no marriage, no children, no future". How depressing is that? Will China exist in 10 years? Define "exist". Will China be a world power? Very doubtful. As the number of workers decline as they age out, it becomes harder to keep the systems running. We've never seen this happen before, so 10 years is an educated guess. There will be Chinese people living in China. There may or may not be some version of the CCP. Just no clue. Look at Wiki - "Dynasties of China". You'll see some lasted a few hundred years and some only a few years. The pattern was breaking apart into separate kingdoms run by war lords and fighting each other until someone won and became the first emperor of the next dynasty. From what little I know of Chinese history, it seems that the period in between dynasties resulted in famine. If you take the men off the land to fight, makes sense. Japan figured out how to deal gracefully with their aging problem a few decades ago. They became experts in automation. They dealt with their labor problem by building car plants and so on in the countries that would buy the products and running those plants with local workers. Japan has managed to prolong their "not enough babies" problem for decades, but I don't see how China can follow their model. They industrialized so fast that it seems the crash will be just as fast. Check out "List of countries by total fertility rate" in Wiki. Demographics worldwide is not a happy subject. 2.1 babies per woman is replacement rate. When you look at those countries below that magic 2.1 number, you'll see the industrialized countries. When you look at the countries with really healthy birthrates, you'll see a lot of Africa and Muslim countries that aren't heavily industrialized - or just beginning to industrialize. I'm just beginning to learn about the link between industrialization and a sinking birthrate. Peter sums it up by saying that people on farms needed kids for free labor, but when they moved to the cities, kids were an expense and people had fewer of them. I spent an hour reading an academic paper the other day that essentially said just that, but took a few thousand words to do so. There are people everywhere searching for the cause of the worldwide sinking fertility problem. One of the causes some are looking at is micro-plastics, found everywhere. I hope that's not the cause, because how could a solution be found? The CDC has a page on micro-plastics. Anyway, sorry to go on so long. Blame it on Peter! He's the one that got me researching a few years ago! (Other than what I did at work before retiring, which was pretty boring stuff, to be honest!) The world is entering a scary time. I'm frankly glad I'm 80 - will crumbling societies like China and Russia collapse with a whimper or a nuclear shout? I'm terrified for my children and grandchildren - and everyone else's. We don't know how this will go. It's never happened before. China is only one of the countries in trouble, but they have nukes. Russia has a lot more nukes and an equally horrible birthrate. They have kidnapped a lot of Ukrainian children and women. Most of the children - or so I've read - have been sent to eastern Russia, too far away to be rescued. What's happening to the Ukrainian women I don't know. What is Putin capable of? Anyway, again I apologize. No clue if 10 years will be the timeline, but how can it not happen sooner or later? Here's another KZheadr you might take a look at. "China Update". The guy is an Australian lawyer who speaks Mandarin and has spent a lot of time in China over the years. His videos aren't very polished, but his information is good.

Its demographics. Not too easy to come up with a counter argument. Kids don't pop out of thin air.

@@VancouverInvestor Americans seem to be doing just that with immigration though.

​@@frOODAloops The natural population deficit for China is, due to their large size, big enough that China would have to capture like half of all the immigration in the world every year. The best counter argument is probably just that lots of countries go through terrible periods with population collapse, famine, disease, economic paralysis, and most of those countries come out the other side.

Asset backed securities

@@PullHardSkiFast thanks

I agree with your statement. But maybe millennial size will equate to a slight bulge for the next generation? I agree with you though

OK they are having kids at a rate greater than 4 percent though.

Immigrants are having kids to make up the numbers

Were your parents and their siblings rabbits?

@@user-ut6ji8my2hhave you ever wondered why you are lonely and it feels like no one loves you? Why people dont text or cal you first? It's because you are miserable to be around and you make the lives of your family and friends worse by being alive. Make your self better for their sake

He’s answered before. Essentially we need to expand legal immigration by orders of magnitude but understand it’s difficult culturally and politically with unions being an undecided voting block and anti immigration.

Well, my guess would be McDill AFB in Tampa, FL - the home of Central Command. I live near Tampa, but have no clue what sort of air defenses they have. I'm assuming they have them, but it would only take one missile to get through and Russia has a LOT of missiles/bombs Happy thought and one I've had before a time or two. Living in the boonies somewhere would probably be a good move!

@@mjpfl8131*northern command, but you’re on the money

I watched a silent movie of an automobile assembly line and there were no humans!

facts. Millenials were the first to integrate with internet, we didnt need identity crisis.

I know of some who studied overseas or switched their major 3-5 times. Most likely it was their parents paying for it.

I can second this point, I can barely afford my car and a one bedroom apartment with 23 an hour, and I don't have college debt to drag me down either.

Gen X are not hippies. That is a Boomer thing. We would not be caught dead doing hippie things.

Nigeria should be OK. Angola and South Africa too. The rest? Everybody probably going to starve.

Check out the List of countries by total fertility rate in Wiki. Most of those countries are still having plenty of babies. Would be nice if they'd stop killing each other off.

1) Stop shouting, type like a normal person 2) Africa doesn’t matter

He grossly over-simplifies for talks. If you want the data and the reasons why, it's in the books. And there's a LOT of backup data on the world's birthrate problem.

Yes, we need immigrants who come here LEGALLY.

Such a crazy divisive topic. I think the US accepts more legal immigrants than the rest of the world combined? The illegal immigration topic is crazy because it is so easy to get over... China has a tictok instruction/guide to do it easy as possible. It takes 1, only 1 bad person to f-up the entire system with ill intent that actually causes harm... we don't know the people that come through and is immediately released into the interior

How would that help with a SKILLS shortage? I think he means people with serious skills acquired through years of experience, not warm bodies.

@@baigandinel7956 Exactly why I wish Peter would elaborate. Here where I live I see help wanted signs. Yesterday I was at Home Depot and over the public announcement system the said what a nice place it is to work there and people could apply on line. At 89 do you think I have a chance?

say it louder for the people in the back of the room to hear!

A lot of this is truly Unbelievable propaganda

Biden or whoever is pulling his strings...I don't think it's Joe Biden either, but must be someone...

He means the deep state / powers that be that are behind him.

I’m curious about the number of white middle to upper middle class people there are in China, Japan, Korea, Mexico and Malaysia. Can you point to the source data he is using that supports your position?

Dear god. What ghetto and inner city would you prefer he focus his research on, and tailor his discussions to?

Peter is merely repeating the same "Russia has nukes and will use them" speachs that PUTIN has said multiple times since the beginning of the Ukranine War. Some people think Putin is bluffing, Peter is taking him seriously. Putin hasn't bluffed in any of the past 17 wars during his time in office. (I think Peter has a point)

Yup. When I "found" Peter, he had a total short hair professional look. Then it started getting shaggy and shaggier and one day he commented he hadn't had long hair since he was a kid. No sign of a haircut in his future yet... lol

He doesn't need you approval, boomer

Not... the criticism I was expecting. Close enough?

Depends on the dividing lines. I've seen the line placed anywhere between 1975 and 1982.

I’ve definitely seen 1979 as a starting point for that generation. I don’t necessarily agree, but I’ve seen it. So it’s not really a fact then, is it?

I think it's possibly true. Of the developed nations, we trade the least with the world, of those that we do trade, half is in nafta... (had to write a paper on this)

Yep, Ford Mavericks and Avocado toast@@bp3445

Mexico. Huge demographics and hard hard workers. The wall was always a dustraction to keep the other great game powers away from Americas little golden goose

It’s already true

It just passed China.

He is talking about blue collar jobs, manufacturing, construction, etc. If China collapses, and Americans want stuff, then someone will have to build a factory. And then someone will have to produce the stuff. And since everyone younger than 60 went for a college, and Zoomers are the smallest generation ever, then there is clear mismatch between supply and demand. And what happens when demand for stuff remains, but from 10 workers 5 retire and are replaced by 2 new ones? Well, the price of those 7 workers left will go up. Since they don’t have competition. And therefore, stuff they produce will be more expensive. Hence inflation.

Really? Then why is my hospital, and all the surrounding hospitals, understaffed at all levels?

What types of jobs are those you are seeing? Why are none of the applicants getting the job? This sounds like hyperbole to make a point.

Which means those pieces of paper that many were directed towards, if not out right indoctrinated in high school to get, are less than worthless because they usually have a boat anchor of debt attached to them. A college degree has become so common that jobs that have no right to require a college degree are now highly suggesting or requiring them. There's such a glut of degreed workers now that they're actively suppressing wages and taking jobs that people who don't have degrees subsist on. And that's not getting into the ludicrous 3-5+ years of experience being required for an entry level job.

This is a horrible take. A college degree doesn’t mean one has the skills to do any or even most jobs. Especially trades which require experience. Boomers were skilled at trades. Something most younger people avoided. Just like Gen Z focuses too much on tech.

link?

The Black Sea Deal staved off the worst of the fertiliser shortage but the increased costs of grain that peaked in 2022 still created unrest in North Africa, particularly emboldening the Houthi Rebels of Yemen.

He may be off by a years or two but the analysis is sound.

1. Peter mentioned in his update that last year had good weather and good harvest 2. Black Sea deal delayed the worst of the worst, but even then agricultural players are stocking up fertilizers and grain (e.g. India) 3. Peter makes things dramatic but even when hes right the reality will play it out as boring as possible. Take a guess why there has been an uptick in the number of coups in Africa last year

Do you have a link to that talk?

Wow. That's deep.

Enjoy being left on the wayside, begging for more government subsidies and handouts because you invested poorly.

Okay, I can see how you could say that based on his conclusions. However, the fact that the Human birth rate is declining in almost every place on Earth is true. I see this as a GOOD thing. He admits to generalizing with his hour presentations, but this is KZhead the home of short attention span videos and info-entertainment.

Then why are you watching?

​@@tomchristianson858a declining birth rate means less humans. Less humans mean less progress and less technological advancements in fields like engineering and medicine. The entire human race benefits from those types of discoveries and advancements. If we don't keep growing, we all will die.

I am a retired engineer (boomer). Agree that the rate of change will slow down. That does NOT mean we won't be okay. We currently have over 8 billion people on the planet. the planet had 2 Billion in 1927. It had 2.6 billion when I was born in 1951. In 2127 the earth will probably be around 4 billion people. That is still over one billion people than was alive when I was born. We will be fine @@polyticks04

​@@polyticks04who or short list of whomever taught you those conclusions

Then don't watch his videos?

@@MrGunlover12 oh I don't. Thanks for the expert advice. I suppose you hang on every word, good luck with that. Also maybe get an IQ test sometime. Seems your on the end of the curve that he casters to,-)

You sound like you’re projecting. Both on the commenter and the presenter. If you don’t like or agree with the info being presented, then state why & move on. Getting so worked up & insulting others says more about your character or at least your maturity level.

“nasley” bro didn’t finish grade school

Lol what a trash comment coming from trash commenter. Nothing of value given in any of the comments you've posted so far, other than pushing the engagement algorithm for Zeihan.

What a peculiar waste of your time. Working so hard to attempt to discredit someone who is doing his best to give a heads up to others concerning a few things he's discovered over the last decade. If you can't identify the value in the information and analysis presented, move on. Your rubbish criticism is influencing no one......

@@rodstubbs horseshit

Yeah man, so glad all of these trade groups also agree with you about Zeihan. I love how he is invited to talk to so many different trade groups about his inaccurate information. Can't wait to hear your analysis "leadbreastplate7496"! I'm sure I'll learn a lot from you!

@@user-bp9cs9zb6y hope not. Trade groups? Like an orgy?

If you read his books (thick and full of data) and then fact-checked and did your own research, you'd most likely reach some similar conclusions. Geography and demography are the root causes of a lot of problems we're dealing with now and in the future and there's not a whole lot we can do about either of those. He over-simplifies on this sort of speech. People have asked him "What keeps you up at night?" and the answer is always "Famine". We'll all find out if he's right or wrong, or if he's right, but it doesn't happen when expected, but if he's a dip shit (to quote you), he's a dip shit who CARES.