Creating a chance as good as a penalty is almost impossible in football. With an average xG of 0.79, penalties often tip the scales unfairly in football matches. This video dives into why a 79% chance of scoring might be too high and suggests ways to make penalties more balanced.
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Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:43 0.79XG is Too Much
01:13 Punishment Doesn't Fit The Crime
02:12 Award Less Penalties
03:08 Make Penalties Harder
05:11 Award More Penalties
06:10 How to Change Penalties
06:50 Outro
This video is licensed as creative commons and can be used by anyone for any purpose across the internet. All external content in this video is being used under 'Fair Dealing' from the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
#Football #Soccer #Penalties #SportsLaw #FIFA #Refereeing #SportEthics #GameRules #Sport #UEFA #Matchday #Goal #Foul #SportJustice #VAR #FootballDiscussion #Tactics #Penalties #premierleague #FIFA #Refereeing #SportEthics #GameRules #Sport #UEFA #Matchday #Goal #Foul
I like the idea of forcing the player who was fouled to shoot the penalty except if they’re injured like with free throws in basketball. I would add that if there’s a non-contact foul like a handball then the last opposing player to touch the ball takes the penalty and if for some reason no opposing player touched the ball (like the team that kicks off kicks off the ball toward their own goal and there’s a handball) then anyone can take the penalty.
1.00 XG
100000 XG 😂😂
What if they can't take the penalty because they got injured from the foul and have to be subbed out right away?
@@crimson6172the last opposing player to touch the ball is the person to take the pen
@@0xD15EA5E💀💀 this is why your football knowledge is shit
If you make it more difficult to score penalties you could run into problems too. Imagine a defender fouling a player who was about to score a sure goal or stopping a sure goal with his hand, and just being punished with an old MLS style penalty. The chances of scoring went from almost certain to just 45%, so you would be giving a huge incentive to fouls when the goals are sure
Exactly my thoughts on this
Thought about this, there should be different types of penalties for different types of fouls imo
If the defender stops a sure goal the punishment is already very harsh - red card.
My Dad always thought for some penalties they should just give the goal rather than doing a penalty. Like if someone punches the ball off the line then you go from a certain goal to a non certain goal
I agree, 45% is definitely too little. I think we should give out less soft penalties and they should be scored around 70% of the time.
Making the fouled player take the penalty is such a simple rule change and it would make the game so much more fair. That would also add the drama of an unlikely hero getting awarded a penalty, because who doesn't love an underdog story.
Wtf go watch drama movies not football then
@@claudiukulcsar456 WTF how do you not now that a big part of what makes football fun is the drama? Give an actual argument for why it’s a bad idea instead of making an ignorant reply.
@@claudiukulcsar456 I mean, football is basically a drama movie
If this happens I think players (specifically wingers and attacking midfielders) might just feel incentivised to dive in the box instead of making an effort to play well. By racking goals this way they can always have a good argument to have their contracts extended.
Watching this right after watching Newcastle get robbed by PSG. You’re totally right, gifting a team that don’t deserve a 80% chance of a goal is so unjustified.
Couldn't agree more, Newcastle got robbed, that handball wasn't leading to anything, let alone an 80% chance of scoring.
@@offsideinsights Well then that's a bad decision but that shouldn't mean we just change penalties completely? If they are awarded correctly then the 80% chance is good since it's supposed to be penalizing the other team. Why would we make it more fair? And the argument you have is just completely illogical to say that it's penalties that should be easier when your reason is a bad DECISION.
I suggested in the video that we should look at penalising non-deliberate handballs with indirect free kicks @@tonypatino1765
@@tonypatino1765it was mentioned the average chance of scoring at the point a penalty is given is roughly 10%. The chance of scoring a penalty at 80% is then arguably disproportionate. One of the many arguments was that penalties are often too soft and VAR could help ensure only genuine fouls, and not dives, are given. That should be something everyone wants, regardless. It doesn't relate to the crime punishment disproportionality. To answer your question, the game should be as fair as possible so that the team which performs better on the day wins, and not the team that got a disproportionately advantageous penalty, that's obvious. Hope I cleared a few things up for you, almost got the impression you watched it on mute.
Messi fan!
i actually really like the idea of making the fouled player the one to take the penalty.
Imagine a goalkeeper idk lets say nick pope gets fouled in the box when hes up for a corner he now has to take the pen 😂 that would be so funny to watch
@@moonrust4939😂 nick pope would sky it
@@LynxoneYT onana would put it in his own net somehow
Yes, but what if the player is injured?
@@ssd3303 anything to lower the xg
To be fair - keep them the same and just allow the goalkeeper to rush off his line the moment the whistle is blown. No mind games from attackers, no stutters, no disrespectful penalties, no long distracting runups etc.
Watch benfica vs sevilla europa league final penalty shootout and youll see how unfair that is
@@Macacomauricio I just watched it again. Yes, I see two penalty takers playing mind games with the keeper, stuttering the run-up, taking way to long after the whistle to actually take the penalty, etc. This is the unfair bit.
The idea of the penalty is that the attacking team has a HUGE chance of scoring. It's a PENALTY. A PUNISHMENT.
Would you argue that the death penalty should be given to someone who litters? Sure most people agree that it should be punished but not that the dude should die.
@@jetsflyingoffatrain4338 Well if he is in a zone where he knows littering = death penalty then heck yea he shuold get the death penalty
It also puts less pressure on a ref for making a bad descision as well
They're called penalties for a reason, because you either fouled a player in the box or handballed, if they're made harder more defenders would throw caution to the wind and just foul.
penalties are given for little to no contact these days or often for unpreventable handballs. hell even yesterday we saw that soft pen given against barcelona. the game has gotten softer, so the rules must change to combat it
This is the only flaw in an otherwise perfect sport IMO. One solution I was thinking is that perhaps make the zone for the penalty foul to be a lot smaller than the 18 yards goalkeeper box. Like for example, make the zone to be only inside that 6 yards small box or anything else but the size of the zone definitely needs a massive reduction. And if a foul happens on the outside of the 6 yards but is still within the 18 yards then it will just be a free kick. I think it will still be much more difficult to score a free kick than a penalty even at that close range because there would still be a wall.
This. Agree completely
But from the first position shown, a player could cross it in for a goal the second your inside the box it becomes much easier to score. the aspect of the penalty is that due to it being 0.79 xg it makes the defenders think before going in for rash tackles therefore the game flows for longer and the tempo stays high
bro this vid was amazing, crazy how little attention this is given compared to the effort put in
Pleased to hear the effort is worth it :)
I think penalty shoot- outs are epic and a great way to end a match so no need to change those. I'm far more open to change for in game penalties.
The thing thats wrong about mls style penalties is that if a player has a tap-in in an open net and gets a pen he'll be losing out in an easy chance to score because a defender deliberately fouled him
Definetely an intresting idea. One thing about penalties is that depending on the situation, there can be a huge amount of pressure on the taker. Think Kane at the World Cup. Do think the idea that whoever wins the pen has to take it will make things more intresting.
Keep up with the videos bro, you will get there. A lot of quality in this video, is just a matter of time to have a viral video if you continue!
Really appreciate that, already working on the next video about changing the football calander ☺️
It's a bad idea because to fault players in a dangerous moment will be more profitable
I think your video brings up some great points, thanks for sharing!
Would it be crazy to take the penalty kick from the spot of the foul like a free kick but with no other player in the box except the goalie, of course
The thing is when you are given a penalty it is supposed to be easy to score that’s why we have them and why they are awarded when a foul is committed in then box. And that 0.79xg will change depending on the situation for example if it’s a derby or a full packed stadium things like these change everything for the player taking the penalty.
So only in big games penalties are hard. I just don't get how you think this rule doesn't need changing. Many players don't care about the crowd so why focus on it?
penalties are supposed tobe a punishment @@jamespadilla7070
Love the indirect free kick for handballs option. Very little advantage is gained from them, especially since you can’t really tell a defender where to put their hands. Id only give a pen in an egregious case such as Luis Suarez vs Ghana.
Honestly we have the technology to tell if the goal was ensured if not for a handball, in tennis they basically recalculate ball trajectories (of very small and fast tennis balls) to tell if it was out. And that's only if VAR wasn't enough.
Indirect in the PA are pretty useless. Might as well just give the ball tot he attacking team 20 yards out.
great video man. big props on this project. best of luck
Really appreciate that 👊
eventhough im a goalkeeper and i hate the fact how hard pens are to save, id not want it to change
I really liked this video, it's really direct and put really innovative ideas to the table which I've noticed not many others ever bring up when it comes to penalties, I hope you keep that style when it come to your other videos
Really appreciate that, got lots of new videos in the works :)
One thing I don’t get is when people say a hand was deliberate or not. It’s very rare that a player will deliberately hand the ball in the box. That makes no sense. But if a player stops a cross or shot with their hand in an unnatural position then that’s should be a penalty
I totally agree, non deliberate hand balls don't deserve to create a 0.8xg chance
How does bro have 200 subs, boy has ball knowledge. Should definitely blow up very soon.. keep it up bud!
It's very well produced video and also nicely put all the ideas. I liked that straight line idea and also from a comment that saying about the immediate GK movement after the whistle is blown. Thanks to you for bringing this up. I liked this video particularly because I remember there were some games I was watching with great interest but it was ruined by some illogical and comical penalty scenario. It makes me lose my interest in football day by day. It's just doesn't make sense to me.... Anyways.. Thanks again for this video. Have a great journey ahead 🎉
Great video. Well done mate
"Penalties are a guaranteed goal" Harry Kane on the 10th of December 2022 proving you wrong
Nice analysis. Good luck with your channel.
Great video, you deserve way more attention. I can't believe you only have 15 subs.
Really appreciate that, got lots more videos coming ☺️
Exactly my thoughts!!!
What about always taking from where the foul occurred, just if it’s in the penalty box then there’s no one allowed between the ball and the goal? Would give a much fairer representation of the actual xg of the chance imo
Definitely agree with that, but wouldn't work if the foul is right next to the byline as you'd have no angle to shoot at the goal.
@@offsideinsights then I guess that’s a fair representation of the actual xg of the chance 🤷🏼♂️ could just say no one else allowed in the box, like a pen, so they can try and lay it off
@@thomasrichardson6432 Clearly there's a difference between being alone on the byline and having an option to cut it back. You could have a clear cutback opportunity robbed by a penalty. A penalty should never have a near 0 xG
Except that you fail to realise that penalties should be PUNITIVE, i.e. they should disincentivise foul play in the box in order to preserve the beauty and integrity of the game. That’s why it’s fair for penalties to have a significantly higher XG than the goal-scoring opportunities that were prevented.
his argument was that TOO MANY penalties are given out resulting in a chance of scoring not proportional to the offence committed meaning the laws of the game are not being applied appropriately to ensure a fair and competitive game.so it needs to be tweaked slightly
damn your brother knows what he talking about
You mention giving yellow cards for diving as being something they should work hard on enforcing but I think they have to go a step further. For me the big problem with diving for penalties is that no one sends a player off for diving even for second yellow. The players diving in the opponent's box are usually attackers that aren't doing many fouls. So if you have a yellow card already you can dive to your heart's content.
The last time I remember seeing a player getting a second yellow for diving was Totti for Italy in extra time against South Korea. That match was 22 years ago and that was arguably the most hated refereeing display of all time.
If there was a dive with no contact at all and they are asking for a pen, it should be a straight red.
Dang.. Im sub #35! Never been this early to a future big channel
same, the fist video on refs was also class
You’re great bro 😂 hope to see more vids from you, +1 sub ❤
you've made absolute sense! i hope some people from fifa see this. im def sending to a friend at CAF
appreciate that 👊
Great vid bro!
Glad you liked it :)
dude wtf you should have WAY more subs, I haven't seen much about you but this content was great, amazing editing really, congrats.
appreciate that, only just started the channel but got big plans ☺️
@@offsideinsights yeah, I've noticed, wish you the best🙌
1. Person who is fouled takes the Pen (I love this idea!) 2. Ban Sutter Run Ups (As a United Fan watching Bruno cheese his goals, this will hurt my team but its for the greater good) 3. No Second Touch from attackers - YOU EITHER MISS OR SCORE. Simple. After that its just a goal kick. 4. UNBAN GK BANTER. I loved watching GK's make fun of penalty takers only to get scored on or Banter a Player to then easily save the Pen like they said. Great video again mate. Like I said, I'm binging these videos mate. So hurry up with more of these types of videos for us.
I certainly agree with those 4 ideas. Working hard on new vids but they take me like 1/2 weeks each to make. I've promised myself to upload at least once a month for the rest of the year.
@@offsideinsights These videos are beautiful mate. Getting 1 of these a week would be awesome. I can't wait for your channel to reflect the quality in the subscribers too ☺
Agree with later half of video. Great take!
Glad you enjoyed it 👊
Penalties are BORING, the game is being ruined by them. They should only be given if a genuine goal scoring opportunity has been ruined by the foul. Otherwise, a free kick is fine.
To be fair if we just ban the stutter step the penalty will be fine reworking it in such a way would probably lead to complaints from teams and players around the world
The idea of letting players run to the ball as soon as the referee blows the whistle is actually very interesting, the thing is, some defenders could tackle the penalty instead, if you put a very fast winger or something along those lines, and the taker is not as fast to do the run up, then the winger could go up to a post and make it even harder. And as you said in the video, penaltys give small clubs more chances to make an upset, however, I do agree that diving should be punished in a harsher way, as (at least in the portuguese league) I've seen several players in the box just with the ball standing, waiting to try to make a penalty happen. This makes penalties a strategy other then a punishment in my opinion. Overall, great video, loved the concept and I think your Lil bro is up to something with that idea.
Penalty takes would have to stop the long run ups, I think it would be a good rule change
Great vid, some really good ideas.
Glad you enjoyed!
Great Video!, What do you think about corners? I heard 2% of corners result in a goal. Most teams have resorted to passing the ball out. What if the corner triangle was made bigger, or the offside rule was removed, would love to hear what you think.
working on a video about the offside rule soon, not sure about removing it but could definitely be improved!
The penalty should be taken from the spot of the foul. Or when closer than the penalty spot than the closest point on the "penalty line" eg) a line running even with the penalty spot right to left then curving when past the posts to maintain equal distance from the goal. If someone commits a penalty foul on a break when the striker is past them or a blatant handball then a normal penalty from the traditional penalty spot is awarded to disincentivise cheating. Also, shootouts are from the traditional spot, so it'd still be a big part of the game. At the same time, standard penalties would often be more like free kicks or set pieces, with more tactics, second-chance goals, etc. If you get fouled barely within the corner of the penalty area it should be a high xG freekick vs only the GK, not a gimme goal.
I like the brother's idea
Mad underrated
It's a penalty, one team made something against the rules, so instead of been giving a goal to the other team, you still got a (slighty) chance to stop it. Making it harder to score is misleading the entire reason of its existence.
New Sub! Great Video
Appreciate the support 👊 New vid out tomorrow ;)
The problem is not the penalty difficulty, it's the fouls referees are giving for penalties, those handballs and stupid contacts no where near the ball
I really like your ideas, though I don't know how effective they'd be. Imo the main issue with penalties is the handball, since fouls can somewhat be controlled, but handballs are most of the time unintentional
Everyone talks how to "improve game" to be more goals in match, i think opposite, goals should be rare and that makes them more beautifull and we would be celebrate it more, people who want much goals they have handball to watch. True football fan can enjoy 0:0 game like i do
Totally agree, the joy of a goal is what makes the game so special :)
@@offsideinsights thanks, that is why i still like Serie A the most
Well the foul in the box should be very specific and obvious and has to be a red card offense to earn a penalty
What if a player handballs it on the line or fouls a player who’s through on an open goal? then they would be being robbed with a harder version of a penalty. The penalty rule was added for a reason
Robbed? The defender would be given a red and the attacker will have the easiest shot in the game to convert. Plus all the advantage with the remaining time
@@jamespadilla7070a shot on the goal line would be very tough to score because the defending team would chuck everyone in front of it
Why do you have so little subs? This is a great video
only started the channel a few months ago and I'm very grateful to be close to 500 subs ☺️
@@offsideinsights I subbed to you. I hope your channel grows!
I love this also the thing your brother said is smart
Very well made video, with nice insights! Could you maybe cite your sources though?
I think changing how the penalty has to be taken to make it harder has more chance to do something than giving less penalties, as it ensures defenders don't abuse the "less enforced" fouls or handballs because "he won't give it anyway stopping a goal scoring opportunity has a higher chance of not getting scored at than trying to not do a penalty" and it's the only way that getting a penalty against your team doesn't feel like you are instantly at a disadvantage before it's even taken.
I like the ice hockey style penalty, I love watching salah dribble and score.
Very much agreed, noice video
I don't think they should make it more far from the goal and etc. A foul inside the small area is really unfair, sometimes the person is about to make a goal, but the idea of making the fouled player take the penalty (unless injury) is actually really good
Thank you been saying this for years. Either penalties need to be made harder or more scarce.
I totally agree. I think they should be harder to score, making going down to win a penalty a little less desirable. Plus everyone loves a penatly save! Its dramatic
Might have stopped the Liverpool players throwing themselves to the ground vs Newcastle
@@offsideinsightsstill crying about that when the Newcastle keeper even acknowledged it was a penalty😂.
it will be less dramatic if its easier to save. thats the paradox
I can see this channel going far in the furture
Really appreciate that, working hard on my next videos :)
banging vid
nice videos bro and ur right few changes need to be madee
Appreciate that :)
To add to the idea of a ‘penalty line’ , the penalty could instead be taken from the location of the foul, so that players don’t benefit too much from a massive increase in xg
The problem is this encourages players to give away penalties in easy goal scenarios, if there was a 45% chance like in the MLS of scoring suddenly we would be seeing many more Suarez vs Ghana moments because youre unlikely to concede from the pen
The only thing imo here good is the keeper thing allow the keeper to step out a bit or touch the goal to put of the taker but the run up thing is there to add strategy
If I could change the rules, it would go like this... - players can rush as soon as the whistle is blown(can block shot if fast enough, but can't touch ball before pen taker) - pen taker has to be whoever was fouled - pen taker can't touch the ball again until anyone other than the keeper touches it
But that's what FIFA wants - more goals, so obstacles will never be added
just move the penalty spot back
yea maybe even put the spot on the 18 yard line, although that would be too big of a change
What if u just took the penalty from when u were fouled unless it was in the 6 yard box
Good ideas. It's a shame that most of the football associations are corrupt and/or hate actually meaningfull changes.
The point of a penalty is to give a VERY STRONG incentive to the defending team not to foul. If you make a penalty harder. Then it will just be a lot better to foul. In fact, I think the fact that an open net and a penalty is the same xG perfect. That means if you get fouled when you had an open net. You are being given the same opportunity again. I agree that handballs should be indirect free kicks. If the handball is in the small box, then it's a penatly.
penalty line genius! hope wenger takes notes
I remember watching a Newcastle game in the prem and seeing someone go down in the box when the ball was barreling towards the line 5 metres from him and wondering how in the world did that 0.00001xg opportunity deserve to become .79xg 😂
kzhead.info/sun/f96zhcyqhHtnd3A/bejne.html around 1 min in
please what is the name of the music in the background? great video
At the beginning? It's called Yellow Boots Instrumental
It won't be a penalty if it's hard to score
you little brother is a genius
Yeah yeah hes so smart
Agreed
I think the penalty area should have a small area, a middle area (new one) and the big area. Fouls made inside the small area should be taken where they already are taken, fouls made in the middle area should be taken a bit further and fouls made in the big area should be taken on the edge of the box. There's no reason for the penalty to be taken where it's taken today when a player handball at the edge of the area while trying to intercept a cross for example
I agree the laws encourage cheating. I have thought for a while fouls inside the penalty area and handballs should be direct free kicks outside the area unless it is an obvious goalscoring chance. For instance a player fouled on the edge of the penalty area whilst moving away from goal, or at a very acute angle from the goal, should not result in a penalty. The "effective penalty area" should reflect were most goals are scored from and the fouled attacker should have gained meaningful control of the ball before being fouled. I have also think there should a timing system like F1 starting lights, which forces the penalty to be struck within a 1 second window to be valid. This could be reviewed by VAR to check the light was green when the ball was struck if a goal is scored. And yes 15 yards. If pens were 0.5 xG, it would make them more exciting.
"Ask Roberto Baggio"
this is a great video, but i would argue its the same for both teams, therefore why should it matter? rather than overhaul the handball rule or change how a penalty is taken, why not just accept that it is flawed, but flawed for both teams equally. that is almost the beauty of them
A free shot (no defense or wall) anywhere on the outside of the penalty arc. Ranging 18 to 20 yards. You are right. They should have changed this rule years ago.
Yes, what a great idea, i've also thought they're so easy In many plays that won't lead to a goal, a penalty is given. That's unfair
I'd like more indirect free kicks.
Same, would be alot fairer
@@offsideinsights For random handballs it would be a good option. They are pretty fun and we hardly get to see them.
if you see the thumbnail of the video in messi shirt it sayes "Pessi"
👀
Penalties are perfect the way they are. XG and other statistics are hard to apply to such a dynamic sport as football. The penalty is SUPPOSED to be this easy, because if not it would be impossible for anyone under prime Messi levels of dribbling to enter the area with the ball. Plain and simple. I do agree some adjustments are to be made regarding handballs and diving, but otherwise don't touch what is already perfect. Thanks.
naa i think a penalty being 50/50 is perfect if anything either the keeper gotta get good or peer presure hits and the pen taker misses and its a team game it doesnt matter who takes the pen fr.
yeah but a let's not forget that it's the foul that leads to the penalty, so since you are brought down by the defender who illegally dispossesed you from the ball and because you had dispossesed the attacker illegally, there is some more sense in giving the fouled player a better chance than he initially had
Stuttering on the run up has annoyed me since forever. I hard agree and don't think making new lines on every pitch is troublesome, white paint is easy to get, you jest kill some skeletons and craft bones into bonemeal and then into… wait it's not minecraft. A change in PK I thought about before is just shooting from the 16 meter / 18 yard line. This may combine well with the idea of kicking from the nearest point from the offense (which I loved tbh). And if you handball in the penalty area, how about you prove your hands worth as the keeper during that penalty lol
Another change that would only require a rule change and no pitch change; The team that gets the penalty can decide to add or takeaway 10mins of playing time.
NO
bro is cooking but we are not eating
what is bro talking about
I hate penalties. I like any and all of these ideas! Especially the fouled player taking it. Just like in basketball
I hate the idea we don't need this type of innovation in a sport thet it more watch then any other it good how it is now
@@claudiukulcsar456 penalty goals aren’t entertaining… they’re cheap
@@klicclak the fouled player taking it won't change much. The probability of scoring the penalty will remain around 80%
@@bna919 it’s still better and more interesting than the current way. Any improvements are welcome
whether the fouls could "lead" to a .80xg or not it doesnt matter. simple as that the foul was conducted inside the penalty box and that warrants a penalty. its supposed to penalize the team that committed the foul, so why would anyone in the right mind make it more "fair". the whole point is that it gives the shooting team the advantage.