The new China playbook: beyond socialism and capitalism | LSE Event
China is a formidable and emerging power on the world stage, and its booming economy is the second largest in the world. Yet Western economists have long been incorrectly predicting its collapse. Why do they keep getting it wrong?
Because, according to Keyu Jin, the Chinese economy that most Westerners picture is an incomplete sketch, based on Western dated assumptions and incomplete information. We need a new understanding of China, one that takes a holistic view of its history and its culture. Professor Jin will be presenting The New China Playbook, a revelatory, clear-eyed, and myth-busting exploration of China’s economy, how it grew to be one of the largest in the world, and what the future may hold.
Speaker:
Professor Keyu Jin
Chair:
Professor Francesco Caselli
#China #Events #London
Full details/attend: www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2024/02/...
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low cost Chinese imports - that's how China affects my life (I live in Florida). China is not a military threat to the USA. Answer me this: which country has military bases encircling the other?
中国支持俄国发动战争，中国对台湾和南海国家构成军事威胁。这是众所周知的事实，当然，美国目前没有入侵美国本土的打算，但中国正在破坏威胁世界秩序。
China braggs of all the US bases in missile range of her missiles.
why US people buy from China? Ask Apple to produce IPhone in US.
She is beautiful and smart. ❤
And she got a great beh........ ooops !
Excellent presentation The china history play book!!
Superb! Thank you. Best wishes.
Her father was China's Vice minister of economics and now I think Chairman of AIIB. Brilliant daughter like her father. The west should sit up and listen to her wise counsel.
Excellent presentation as always. This is so refreshing to hear a professional assessment of China based on fact and not on Geopolitical narratives trying to advance a narrative. Hopefully this video gets the number of viewers that it’s due.
If a nation is slowly collapsing wouldn’t it be inclined to be more risk averse and be more likely to be a threat to other nations?
The comment section is flooded with geopolitical narratives 😂
完全胡说八道。根本不值得一看，我只看了标题。中国的发展依赖美国。是美国推动中国经济发展。当然这无可厚非，问题是，中国的强大必然导致现有文明世界秩序的破坏。很难想象，当中国价值观取代美国，或和美国分庭抗礼的时候，人类文明会被糟蹋成什么样子。这才是最恐怖的事。
How could someone be so intelligent, so pretty, so well educated and so articulate!
It is certainly refreshing to hear an English-speaking Chinese economist who, knows both the Western and Chinese models of economic success and malaise, to be able to present such a succinct and clear comparison of the socialist and capitalist impact on a country's economic development.
Excellent presentation. I hope China succeeds.
Yes, and CCP falls. Chinese people dont need or deserve to be ruled by a paternalistic mafia.
free peng shuai
Good lecture!
China engages in governance not politics.
😂There is no politics ..there is only CPC
@@sudhinalavil there’s only governance for the people, by the people, and from the people and that’s the CPC!
yes and CPC is a democratic party with China having free, transparent and fair election..lol!!! @@HK-tj8tf
@@sudhinalavilIt is CPC get your facts right !
@@jackreacher8858 noted
Thank you Dr.Jin for your brilliant presentation!
Respected, China 's success story is only one word Governance. It's immaterial which form of political system. Their government is delivering to their nation. Poor nations are not lack of resources, it's how they use it.
What you call "delivering" is very selective. Just ask the million Ughyurs incarcerated in Xinjiang. Or the Tibetans. Or Hong Kong democrats.
@@SuperMookles All are funded by CIA/NED to cause color revolution in China. For the activists from Xinjiang and Tibet, most of them are not even local e.g for Tibet, most are born in india or immigrated from india to US, Australia etc. For HK, CIA's plan was to turn it into independent HK which was foiled simply by drafting of National Security Laws. HK had too much freedom! Uyghur incarceration is just allegations and lots of it by CIA media which is most of western media. Wanna find out the truth, go and visit these places. You will be surprised at your own ignorance and how brainwashed you are!
@@SuperMooklesGod damn, you’re so real.
@@J-SH06 whereas you're... what? A CCP bot? A shill for authoritarian regimes? Please, do tell.
LOL, the original comment reads like it was AI-generated.
A great eye-opening of China model. Something new I just learnt and value it. Greatly appreciated.
Great talk, I surely would read her book
As an investor in Chinese equity the comment on equity investors, continuously not learning, resonated with me. In the same way debt investors in the US do not learn I guess. The point is that all this investment in over supply is being paid by someone. And that someone is largely equity investors in China and debt holders in the US.
It would be interesting if the history of development, transition between the old state controlled model and the free market model was brought along, comparison not only to India, but to the other Chinese models such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, could be discussed.
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as a non-expert, I wonder how important is the role of state-run and owned companies in China? also, how important is the role of workers organizations and activism, beyond unions, in shaping economic policy?
State owned companies are key. Let's take one example. State owned banks. They take some directives from the party, some from their own bottom line and ultimately, they determine the level of investment in the economy, for both private firms and other SOEs. SOEs in China serve dual purposes. They keep unemployment low and produce cheap input materials for other companies. The role of workers has been low but is seemingly on the rise. The CCP seems interested in reworking their union system so that it actually meaningfully represents worker interests. Hard to tell how successful this has been so far or will be in the future.
@@paytonmcdermott9111State owned companies and banks still take their cues from the central government and their 5 year plans. If you compare with the US , do you think the JP Morgans take their cues from the FEd or the other way round. Do u think Blackrock follows what the government says or the Fed or is it the other way around. Let me give you a clue, despite a terrible stock market, China is chugging along with some of its industries reaching new highs and even leading despite all the knee capping coming from Uncle Sam. I think China doesn't care too much how its stock market is doing. In the US, the importance of the stock performance is kind of synonymous with economic performance, but many already know that the stock market in US is manipulated. So, I guess ppl in the West don't mind being manipulated.
@@paytonmcdermott9111SOEs are the anchors of the supply chain where private SMEs can tether to anywhere in the supply chain
bigger than the West wants to admit. Because that would mean they need to admit that the CPC played a huge role in China's economic success. State-owned companies are important, because they are able to fund, lead and push the country towards a national unified vision or goal. We see this with their railways, EV industry, and now microchips industry and the amount of R&D being poured into it. I think the labor market is as free market as it gets. You see this with how workers often get creative with maximizing efficiency. For instance, there's a service similar to Uber Eats there. It's a very widely used service ( food delivery ). The delivery drivers found an inefficiency when they deliver to apartment buildings. So a new subsector was created, where they subcontract/partner up with people who will complete the last leg of the delivery for a fraction of the payout. It's absolutely fascinating.
With the National Security Act, the Espionage Law, and the HK National Security Act (especially Article 23, which is back on the table), any pretense or illusion that Deng and Zemin created as to 'ownership' has been rudely stripped away. Even 'home sales' is a farce since only the Developer 'owns' the land for 70 years. The 'home buyer' isn't buying anything: They are leasing the unit for however many years are still left on the 70-year lease after the developer finishes construction (IF they bother to finish it) and 'sell' the secondary lease to the buyer. There is no real appeal to Imminent Domain, either and good luck getting market value in compensation if some official decides your land is needed for a high-speed rail that goes to nowhere.
Prof. Jin plays a very welcome role as a bridge between china and the west. I would loved to hear more about how China should solve the demand problem as Michel Pettis highlights. Prof. Jin only slightly touched upon this huge issue. Further, if china wants to become a bigger smarter Germany, China needs to study the German famous vocational education system. I'd loved to hear whether and how China wants to do it; or every Chinese family still wants their child to go to the university? If so, China will never become that.
China currently has a surplus of such skills & talents. They're doing fine as it is
China already has a vocational education system, it is solely skill based, it has both public funded and private funded schools.
On the last question, China GDP growth rate slowed down but in absolute term, it grew 5.2% in 2023. With this growth rate for a very large economy, some commodities could be very hot.
That def. is a fake # and no one who is in the know believes this.
That’s fake data
High unemployment, reduction in exports, poor domestic consumption and collapse in real estate which comprises 70% savings and 25% of growth. 5.2% is fake and she knows it. More like 1.5% growth
@@Ryanwong.6688 Baseless accusations is called rumors.
@@LL-xf9kfRyan is correct though, the demand for raw materials is down, the economy is not enlarging. 5% number is made up
中国的推理更倾向于循环而非线性；它不仅受到逻辑的影响，还积极地受到背景和复杂的关系体系的塑造。
What’s being left out is love and respect for parents and grandparents. Why is this important? Because decisions are still being made trans generational. That’s the secret sauce of success for Chinese and everyone who listens and respects their most important resources.
Profound understanding on China! Congratulations!
Professor Jin, I had a problems understanding your statement that China is will be over producing more EVs than global demand requires. While you cite 27 million as the annual demand, Statista says global sales of automobiles is more than 75 million in 2023. This number is sure to significantly increase in the future as the global south, including China’s demand increases. Another example relate to the statement you made about too much battery production. Batteries are not only used for cars, but huge demand will exist for storage of renewable energy and new technical devices. This and other statements you have made near the end of your presentation about China’s economy suffering from overcapacity could use a lot more explanation and data backup.
What's china human development index in comparison to the US?
@25:14 Why should China become a free market economy?? In another word, a capitalist economy?? China should and MUST continue its Socialist economy. China will continue to distribute wealth among its citizens unlike the US economy where the top ten percent of Americans hold nearly 70 percent of U.S. wealth. There are still poor people in China and China must raise their standard of living.
It's actually the richest 1% in the United States now own more wealth than the bottom 90 percent.
An interesting thing would be to compare China communism vs North Korea communism and the results in economic development and most important the human development and the quality of life of the people. Although, that comparison might not be adequate because of the economical system of those countries are different yet my perception is that corruption in the Chinese gov might be lower and the China's resources might be getting used in a productive way. i can speculate only but it would interesting to know from inside and expert people. On the other hand, socialism in Latinamerica in countries like; Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc.. the ruling political elites get enriched and the majority the people are living under poverty, then socialism has not worked well there for the benefit of the people.
Capitalism has created havoc in the global financial arena. Actually unbridled capitalism which is founded on greed, and its concomitant, power, is the cause. Only measured application of socialism can tame this runaway evil.
@@catsNcodeWHAT SURELY NOT ! FUN FACT HUH !
…… China must continue its socialist economy…… Are you kidding me ? In the real world, all countries that run socialism/ communism end up poor, and eventually starvation. China had its starvation during the cultural revolution. As a Chinese ( Hongkong ), I do not want to starve to death. You know how many Chinese people are fleeing China to Mexico, then try to cross the border to US ? Because they don't want to starve to death. Go watch Peter Zeihan 's KZhead videos on China.
Whose numbers you using?
59:26 So it’s the local governments that are doing the borrowing, and that’s because they can’t create money in the way national government can. So basically as long as those local governments can maintain production, the national government can help the local governments to absorb their debts. I would wage that the banks are not totally independent of the national government.
Is Tsai Yin-wen’s, Taiwan president, Doctoral degree from LSE fake?
Lol yes just like Ursula Von der Lyne is fake
How do you measure living standards?
Instead of "western economists.. predicting its collapse", at most "some western economists ... predict its collapse" (in the description of the video).
ooh I'm gonna make fun this slide: 8:26 "what we get wong" ... .... .. a big and smart germany?
Its the age of the dragon 🐲
Honestly just the 1st 3 students' questions alone are more curious and interesting than the nonsensical dogma I hear from Atlantic politicians and journalists. Interestingly 2 are Asians and 1 sounds South American.
The China playbook is quite simple: - Many workers - Strong ETHICS at work, home, public life and government - Benefit of the Society always above the benefit of the individual - NON intervention, ever (unlike the United States and the UK) in the INTERNAL AFFAIRS of other countries - NEVER threat of military intervention in other countries. Taiwan is clearly Chinese.
+East Asian discipline and diligence
Philippines EEZ Chinese?
China plsyook is huge Government subsidies and state directed investment
@@Andy-P No way, that’s the US. China don’t have any external debt, US is run by external debts.
@@MRT-co1sd External debt was 13.6% of GDP in China in 2022, compared to 8.9% of GDP ten years earlier. External debt averaged USD 13.9% of GDP over the past decade
7:09 stream starts here
You missed when she said that China has 0% poverty. Start is at 2:40.
She contradicts herself: overcapacity INCREASES efficiency in a given sector due to competition & factors of scale... however she's right to say it leads to very low or no profits - but that's the def. of maximum efficiency!
It’s such a relief hearing a balanced analysis of China’s economy. Thank you.
While the Chinese government faces fewer political constraints than governments in other countries (e.g., as Professor Jin said, if a village has to be moved to make a dam, it is moved much faster than is possible in a democracy), Professor Jin did talk about two political pressures on the Chinese government. 1. A market correction in the real estate sector that severely hits consumers' pockets is not politically acceptable. 2. Chinese parents do not want to risk their only child in a war, and presumably the government must take this into account, in e.g., planning a military takeover of Taiwan. Are there any political constraints that weigh in favor of greater individual liberty as understood in the West?
The dam building example, decisions and actions are much faster because the democracy in China is wholesome and unified. China’s one party dominance is the wholesome encompassing support of all voices. In the West, democracy is formed from an individual basis, that is self centered and more individualistic thus unable to produce a wholesome entity that speaks to the greater good or as the west always puts it- a majority good. This form of democracy is scattered, not unified, and cannibalistic to its societal being all for the label of individual liberty or freedom. Your views are not your fault, it’s just malformed and ill conceived. Look what western democracy has done for India’s population after liberation- not much. Just like the statement of China and the military takeover of Taiwan. Takeover or taking back and taking back from who? China will eventually reunite with Taiwan because it an inalienable part of China. You talk like reading from a playbook of the Imperialist mindset.
IMHO, it's the US, as the incumbent, that's itching for war to kill off the rising underdog. The European alliances that were formed during the years before WW1 is British attempt to contain German's economy. The punitive war reparations imposed on Germany post-WW1 was intended to make sure the German's economy can never overtake the British. It has happened before and it will happen again
It's very well program work that time development as possible by all version free longer available because this time now Warren nothing found someone to start development For rehabilition all programs
OLD Chinese PLAYBOOK
This book should be categorized as fiction. China is 0 5 to 1.0 roght now. They look at this woman's ideas as cute and fantastical.
1:00:41 I don't think stable is the right word to describe Chinese economy. The word should be secure from the government's perspective.
由于股市疲软，a股只作为融资平台，收益率低。加上外汇管制，所以热钱相对较少，外资只能投资实业。成就中国现在世界工厂的状况。 对发展中国家来说，高效的市场意味着资本掠夺发展成果也很高效。例如98亚洲经济危机中的泰国等。 发展是分阶段的，经贸政治充满了交换与妥协。加入WTO时主要矛盾在放开金融管制和粮食管制。中国选择放开粮食管制，从而加入WTO。之后经历了多轮粮食价格战，从大豆，到生姜大蒜都被反复炒作，直到中粮集团成为世界第五大粮商。 生产力达到一定水平，有更多的创新要求，下一步就是加强金融服务了。金融产业可以筛选优质科技创新。
First there was the Mao era, then the Deng era. We all know what happened. If we go back to the red mindset, we can predict what will happen next.
Surely CIA can use your expertise!
Great talk! I would like to hear more options about how China will deal with some of the emerging problems, including debts of the local governments, sharp decline of the population. Esp the population, she just mentioned one child can use the money of six purses for buying a new home for example, but she didn't mention this poor kid has to take care of 6 people when they are getting old.
What I really miss here is the important role of human capital. That's what the US has depended on by attracting immigrants with extraodinary talents. So how many graduates do China's universities produce each year in important sectors like AI and other technologies. That will be decisive.
China is dominating the AI industry. Hence the recent US tech sanctions on China
4.5 million STEM grads in China annually vs 450k in the U.S.
That will most likely be decisive for what country will be dominant. That is, when the level of the graduates is high enough and they are employed in sectors and research fields that matter. And provided the US doesn't start an all destructive war once they realise they're losing their hegemonic position. Empires come and go.
check out these cities across America - the truth is written on the street ' What happened to this Neighborhood? ' ' I've never seen anything like it': Inside the center of the tranq drug crisis ' ' Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Ave Documentary, October 25-26 2023 ' ' Real side of Vancouver | Downtown east [4K] '
Much of America is degenerating into third world-style slums.
China's poverty rate is not zero, FGS
Quite right, there is not poverty rate Zero in any country, not even the most "developed" ones. Being poor is not only a matter of opportunities is is also a personal matter.
Please answer one question at a time. So annoying to have three questions asked and then answer them together.
Allow the guest speaker to dodge and weave dodge and weave and than some !
China has an older and more continuous civilization as a result of which it has a far deeper knowledge of collective behavior. China knows the west a 100 times better than the west knows China. China knows its own limits far better than the US knows its own. China seeks security while the US seeks hegemony as a result China's global soft power will be greater than that of the US. Contrary to popular perceptions China is as a result far more innovative than the west.
yo Professor Jin....pretty sure China is doing some copying😎
The Economist always wrong @7:00
Thanks comrade! How's the weather in Hangzhou?
@@SuperMookles better than the place you are living in
They're paid to be wrong: they're a propaganda outlet.
Fresh look to LSE today. And probably UK university situation right now. Worrying.
She should register herself as China Agent 😀😀😀
From India?
CIA BOT spotted
Sounds to me like a planned economy, centralized control and artificial development - investing in things that are not needed. Just like their real estate and infrastructure investments. Top this with off with out-of-control corruption and dishonest not just in government but in the daily lives or average Chinese.
dude, ifi you got some spare time and if you are really interesting in chinese politics, read up some Mao zedong's writing and it will surprise you. surprise how? you will find out how you and Mao have the same critisim on this topic
Beyon socialism and caoutalism is simoly imperialism
7:11 how can she believe “a collapsing nation can’t ever be a threat” that goes against both Chinese and global history.
China Government Debt to GDP for 2023 is just over 80% not close to 280%. You are misleading your audience at 10:40 US is 123% for comparison. Which would you rather pass on to your children?
Another Chinese nationalist shill who can't abide any perceived criticism of the Glorious CCP-run Utopian State.
She is talking about China's debt, which refers to the overall societal debt, including that of the government, businesses, and households. China's overall societal debt level is close to three times its GDP.
@@liangbaoge Where did she get that figure from and why did she not say? If she calculated it thus, how does it compare to other countries she has calculated it for. To me is smells like BS propaganda. a lot of Chinese save money, so was this considered?
@@Andrew-rc3vhyou think this author is anti Chinese? Did you even read her book?
@@liangbaoge if that's the case, US is still worse than China. Whatever it's, debts are bad thing ONLY when it's spent on non-productive stuffs
Her book has mixed reviews. If you know nothing about China, you will fall for her book. If you already know China, her book will pissed you off. The title says "New" China Playbook - but what is really new?
I would think it's pretty obvious: what's new in China is the focus on high-quality and high-tech growth as opposed to the earlier growth at all cost.
If you “really “ know about China, you’ll agree with her on most of her points. If you’re pissed off, only tells your understanding of China is superficial……
I think there is a difference between adapting best practices and outright copying but would not expect anything less from a ccp mouthpiece.
it is precisely the proliferation of such ignorant perspective of Keyu Jin that the Third World countries and China remain trapped in their crisis bound economy. to answer her simply, why did China failed in its Great Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward efforts to achieve comparable modernisation and prosperity but succeeded after joining WTO. like the 4 asian tigers, their success is due to their hardwork but more importantly hinge on their dependency model to subscribe to a win-win paradigm which ensure the access to modern development capital which they are not able to realise on their own. China will failed to achieve growth if they pull out from the dependency model, and would still achieve bounded expedient modernisation and prosperity that prioritised elitist regime if they continue to fulfill the conditions of win-win paradigm of the dependency model as prescribed by Developed countries underpinning WTO. Even Sri Lanka and Argentina are facing real collapse in their economy but they would pull through if they continue to abide and follow the directives of their Developed counterpart in the Dependency model. amazing an associate professor of such calibre in LSE
Western countries wouldn't have realized their success either if it wasn't for hundreds of years of free labor from slavery and exploiting colonies
Exactly the idea you should be asking US and EU which is asking for decoupling from China and China on the other hand is saying don’t.
Pray harder maybe bray harder!
You all forgot to mention/neglected the fact that she is gorgeously beautiful 😍 European man here
is she sent by the Party to spread party lines?
Is she beyond your understanding?
nope just to tell the truth and debunk CIA western led lies.
The poverty rate in China fell to 0% 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 If anyone believes that, I wish you the best.
THANK YOU ! THANK YOU ! I REALLY DONT DESERVE IT ! THANK YOU
The so-called Chinese Model has been proven false and failed.
China lifted 800 million people out of poverty while the US increased *inequality* instead, not to mention the countless US war crimes committed in the same period, so maybe you're "so-calling" the wrong thing "The Chinese Model."
yes dude they failed and they need democracy right. many countries with democracy and free market going nuts and dumping every week lol. instead of parroting this same line like always try something ideal and logical lol.
“Effectively zero poverty in China” “Confident, leisure traveling, Chinese youth” This is called propaganda dressed as economics. Vet your speakers, LSE.
Boring
poor chinese girl, she is just a propaganda megaphone
Shes richer, knowledgeable and more intelligent than most… why a poor fool wants to endure watching her and her propagandas and bother to make a poor comment.
不以为耻，反以为荣……
State is rich and people are poor, who want this model?
Chinese people are rich. One third of Mercedes Benz, BMW. Audi 40%Volkswagen.. cars are sold to the Chinese people. In 2022 cars sold in China is 28 millions compared to USA only 13 millions .
🤣🤣🤣 you are a 🥳🤡‼️🤣🤣🤣
@@Eva-eg4ve gdp per cap is very low
cost of living well is very low.@@bobyuan1254
@@Eva-eg4veChina has 4x the population…
中国人一直不愿意承认一个事实，也正是因为中国人的这个愚蠢行为，导致中国经济越来越差，那是什么事实呢？ 就是过去40年，中国的经济一直是美国在推动的。三驾马车其实是美国这一驾马车。 这本来就是尽人皆知的事实，可因为中国人爱面子，或出于自卑而死活不承认。不但不承认，还有些无脑的企图挑战美国，认为自己和美国做对也能玩得转。 结果会死的很惨。
It's a fact Nixon opened the gate. The rest was US hunger for cheaper costs of living from China sources. Chinese face is important unlike other cultures. Maybe, a weakness, maybe a family and community value. I welcome China emergence from poverty to second largest global GDP. Kudos to both US and China.
良药苦口，说真话恐怕粉红们听不进去
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