2024 Future of U.S. and China Conference: Risk or Reward? - Gauging China’s Economic Outlook
SAN FRANCISCO, January 18, 2024 - For the sixth consecutive year, Asia Society Northern California members and guests come together for a full day of live programming for their annual Future of U.S. & China Conference, part of its Seeking Truth Through Facts U.S.-China Program Series.
China’s economic challenges have garnered widespread attention over the past years, with headlines highlighting the country’s property crisis, pending or postponed IPOs, credit outlook, the youth job market, and the regulation over the finance system. Hear from experts on the Chinese economy and investors on what we can expect in the year ahead including potential impacts on global markets.
Panelists include, Li Song (Moderator), Managing Director, Asia, at Silicon Valley Bank; Andy Rothman, Investment Strategist at Matthews Asia; Scott Rozelle, Co-Director of the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions; and, Victor Shih, Director of 21st Century China Center.
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China must have done something right otherwise the U.S. government would not be so insecure and scared.
Mainstream media are 24/7 on China! When China coughs, they conclude China is dying. Such is their hate and desire. China is supposed to collapse every year for the last 20 years. The reality is that the world cannot afford to be divided to deal with existential threats of climate change, AI and nuclear weapons. Yet, the mainstream media are so obsessed with war mongering than peacemaking. Really sad!
Absolutely! China acts like it’s taking over the world even though it doesn’t have will nor capacity to do so. It’s the worst of both worlds.
Typical Wumao nonsense that is on all of these type of videos. Just listen, be objective, and stop making it a US vs China political thing
Amazingly, one panelist says no threats by US or Taiwan! There are over 200 military bases encircling China with missiles aiming at it! And US navy patrolling up and down China's coastlines, including the Taiwan Strait! And US military on Taiwan itself when Taiwan is recognised by UN (and US) as a part of China. Imagine this happening to US with Chinese naval fleet in the Gulf of Mexico and Chinese ships payrolling the California's coastlines. And Chinese military in Cuba or even some US territory?! Aren't these panelists even aware of their bias?
Evidently, this is sponsored by the CIA
They are just a bunch of BS. Bay Of pigs is a good example. Yugoglovakia, Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Cuba, Iran.. List goes on endlessly, how these nation are destroyed by the U.S and their bunch of colonialists
You guys certainly have not been to Chengdu, Chongqing and Yibin for example with incredible growth. It’s like saying that the Appalachians represent American economic story compared to say Austin or Cupertino. You give a fairly balanced view but does not take into account Chinese family support, civilizational history and multi generational homes. China is not America with individualistic attitude. It is not so bad here.😊
well said
This was, frankly, a moronic discussion. The panel's advice for China was essentially "deregulation" of the economy, which is precisely what led to the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis. Also, at a time when the entire world is making national security their number one priority, and at a time when the U.S. and its allies are sending warships and planes to China's shores on a weekly basis, while also arming separatists on Taiwan Island (officially recognized by almost all countries as a part of China); the panelists recommend that China ignore national security and only focus on economics. The only western economy which is doing reasonably well at present seems to be the U.S., as the one panelist explained, but the U.S. federal government added $2 trillion of new debt in 2023, so it is obviously deficit-spending to a tremendous degree in order to keep the impression that its economy is doing 'relatively well'.
USA make well because of wars and sucks the EU dry
US is propped up by money printing!
The person on the left is right on his observation and recommendations. He really wishes China doing better!
It is fashion now to paint China as down in Economics. But in 2023 the IMF 's figure showed that China had still 5% growth in GDP which was still the highest in the world. The current Gov. projection is still 5 % for 2024. You do NOT see beggars on the street. The Chinese debt may be high. However comparing with US, the US National Debt is over 34 Trillions and still growing rapidly. Chinese economy is NOT dying period. Donald Trump in 2016 forced China to stop saying " China 2025 ". China complied . Next year is 2024. Gentlemen and people around the world just keep your eyes open and see in 2025's China. US always wants to paint any country as inferior or backward , comparing with USA. But the US domestic issues are the tremendous, the infighting, the homicides, the rampant immigration problems, the high inflations, the failure of proxy war in Ukraine , the assistance of GAZA Genocide and sufferings of the poor and lower echelons people , ......... etc. the list is endless. Take care your own problem before ridiculing China and other countries.
Why include 16-20 year old youth when you investigated unemployment rate?
Talk about the gap between rich and poor, there is no country in the world has bigger gap between rich and poor than the the U.S. By the way, don’t blame China for learning from the U.S.
That is factually incorrect. China's rich vs poor gap is greater
@@valetudo1569 you are wrong. US has a Gini index of 39.7 and China has 38.2. The higher Grini index the more gap between rich and poor. And China is a developing country.
@@peterwilliams7335 China's gini index is reported from their own government agencies and is not a reliable source. They also say their overall unemployment is 5%, when tons of people are unemployed at the moment. Yes, I live in China and not just talking out of my ass. You can plainly see tons of people with luxury cars and homes, and tons of people who only make a few thousand RMB a month. Average income in big cities can be like 7,000 RMB - yet you have so many migrant workers making less than that and so many rich running around. China will never ever ever tell you that their real wealth gap disparity or unemployment. They will always officially report its better than the US
Doom and gloom on Chinese economy! What about the gloom and doom of the US or EU economy? Why not be proactive in suggesting a master recue plan for the USE and EU economy?
US interest service on 34 trillions is 1 trillions per month. 100 USD = 720 RMB China interest service according to the panel is 1 trillions RMB.
The Chinese guy who is doing the speaking is doing an excellent job btw. As someone learning Chinese as a second language - I'm amazed at how he's able to transfer his charisma into a second language and do such a fantastic job
This anti-China sentiment is getting really old
So don't watch
Great discussion, thank you so much. I'd love to see more of this
China is booming for tourism industry. Pandemic changed local people's view for real estate, and people do not expect the property market of real estate is a good investment any more.
Andy nailed it!
Another Chinese economy collapse theorists. Lol
Not collapsing, but certainly faltering
@@tracyli5201 Projected to grow at 5% this year, which would add an equivalent of the entire Australian economy to China. Western media and many western academics claim the Chinese economy is "faltering" or "slowing" because it isn't growing at 10% anymore. Well, since China became the world's largest economy in 2014, according to the World Bank and the IMF, and it is now 125% the size of the U.S. economy, how quickly can you honestly expect it to grow on a yearly basis given that we live on a finite Earth? The Chinese economy is already the largest economy the world has ever seen.
Just come and live in China for a month. Then you can tell me if you believe the 5% fairy tale number.@@jasonjean2901 Property value dropped by at least 30% everywhere. New apartments sold down by 50% YoY last month. This is after the COVID lockdown policy has been lifted. Yeah, it is faltering alright.
Export down based on official number, aftermath of decoupling. Consumption flat or down, certainly below 2019 pre pandemic level. Household savings at all time high. Everything is depreciating. Government investment down in infrastructure, heavily indebted already. @@jasonjean2901 Where does the 5% increase come from?
That last joke was in bad taste.
He thinks he can be a stand-up comedian in his subsequent career. The audience may laugh because of the venue. In this setting, it is a nut job.
Not sure I need to hear from a failed bank 😅
What a joke, svb is alive and well ???
😅
Li Song: "We have three extinguished experts on Chinese economy" LOL ! We're here to dissect the state of Chinese geoeconomics, Li. Not to dissect corpses!
you expected lots of smearing,don't you ?
These people talk lies. Speak nonsense. They only see one inch
老白男听说中国经济要崩溃了，心想终于让我在死前等到了
this failed SVB Li Song is a dishonest lier
Fake guys love you china
Sure, all the fake guys in the west!
Semi-experts, at most. Can't believe it.
16 year old youth unemployed?😂😂😂
The guests this time round are quite objective and well informed, unlike many other times at this Asia Society forum which were rather biased with misinformation n smearing