This is going to be different: Learning to live with Chinese Power
1304th Ordinary General Meeting and Open Lecture of the Royal Society of NSW - 6 July 2022
“This is going to be different: Learning to live with Chinese Power”
Emeritus Professor Hugh White AO FASSA
Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies, Australian National University
Timing Marks:
00:00:00 Introduction to the Speaker: Ms Judith Wheeldon AM FRSN, Vice-President, Royal Society of NSW
00:03:52 Presentation: Emeritus Professor Hugh White AO FASSA
01:02:10 Q&A Session and Vote of Thanks: moderated by Emeritus Professor Christina Slade FRSN, Chair, Program Committee, Royal Society of NSW
Summary: China's rise drives the most consequential shift in Australia's international environment since European settlement. So far we are in denial about this, hoping that a reassertion of American supremacy will contain China's power and preserve the old US-led regional order which has served us so well. But what are the chances of those hopes being realised, and what can we do if they are dashed? How does Australia make its way in an Asia no longer dominated by our Great and Powerful Friends? How we answer that question will do much to define us as a nation.
America meddles in the internal affairs of other countries all the time Prof.White.
you're damn right Prof White how about that did China meddle or invade, colonize like the West?
Can we make a fair comparison between China's Uygur situation and fresh human organs for sale and American foreign policy. I dont think so.
What about the Israelis selling organs taken from Palestinians ?
@@nofutility Pure fantasy about China - lol - where is the actual evidence. There is none. Think you mean the Ukrainan sellings organs from dead soliders and cilvisans.
@@nofutility Really do you have proof on that or just trusting your US propaganda fake news? 🤣😂
The Chinese have never said they want to “retake” Taiwan - if you want to name something they KEEP SAYING, it would be their goal of “reunifying” with Taiwan in time, which many there would like to see happen as well. Please get your narratives right if you’re going to claim to have an opinion we should listen to.
I do appreciate your talk overall. Thanks very much.
You dont retake What you have, simple.
Taiwan is always part of china, period. Nothing is going to change with the 1.4billion Chinese nationals 👀🧐
A young vibrant & smart Australia must be able to think and act outside of an imperialist Anglo American mindset. America is under toxic leaderships and domestic political turmoils. We really don't need the sorts of corrupt and immoral American system in Australia. Thank you for the great presentation!
Why would a Country take back a province that is already their own? It’s because of “USuckicA” that is trying to divide Taiwan away from China because of TSMC. USuckicA is despicable, disgraceful & disgusting!🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮
What do we get from America a lot of homelessness and poverty and killing and bad health services not good value
You also get kicked around.
Don't forget our educational system is stupidly overpriced and forcing people into 50k of student loans. But hey don't worry I'm sure the democrats will fix all of our problems all they have to do is talk about ending white supremacy and your health care will be more affordable lol
And mass imprisonment & child abuse.
Y11
a nice media
Australia prefers american dominanted world order is because its to australias favor, not because its more fair, or more moral. The wolrd is bigger than G7, Look at south americans and african countries, are they enjoying americans rule based order? Ita funny that american have those first chain, second chain military strategy to contain china, while china hasnt fired a bullet in the past 30 yrs and rised peacefully, its like Uncle Sam always like to point a gun to your head and screaming, "you are threatening me"! Lets put it this way, even if china changed systematically to a democracy, as long as US cant meddling the election, creating chaos in china, american will still drive his G7 fellas ro accuse china as a crooked democracy and a threaten to "rule based order and western value"
It takes time to wean off the current good-feeling especially in the West today.
Australia is in racist mode with the rest of the five eyes,English speakers Anglo Saxon,who think they have a right to controls all other cultures,and someone’s else’s resources and lands.
There are those who are trying to remove the yolk of western state terrorism from within but the occult imperial state is oppressive for all. Best wishes to our collegues in Asia, Africa & S.America in their fight for independence from colonial capitalism.
Because it's THE CAUCASIAN values Prof White your 19th century dream has gone reality check you're no longer the dominant player now you're better adjusting to it or you're left behind and daydreaming to colonizing era
Definition of rule based order "blinks", " Do what I tell you to do or else....", "we know where your daughter is or where your family lives...we monitor your phone.", " we don't have to do or carry out our actions, even after what we agreed/declared/signed in our agreement/treaty/accord."
Professor White is spot on regarding the resolves of the potential conflict between China-USA over Taiwan. Chinese people inherently love peace. China has not fired a bullet over the past 30 years against any other nation while it had risen together with the majority of countries in Asia. If you really understand the Chinese culture, you will realize that that majority of Chinese have been influenced by the lessons from the Confucius over the past two thousand years. But, let us not argue about the boring cultural things. Instead, let us talk about the few points Professor White lightly touched on. Once we understand more about the Chinese people, we would appreciate more about Professor's points. Sports: Historically, the fights between gladiators in ancient Rome as an entertainment were brutal, cruel and inhumane. The aggressive western culture is fully revealed from the deadly sports. Today, American people love football game. It is much better than the fight-to-death entertainment between the gladiators. But, it is still very aggressive. This aggressiveness also revealed itself on the foreign policy. No wonder America has been invading many nations as it sees fit without the approval of the United Nation. On the other hand, Chinese people did not like barbarian sports from ancient time. Today, soccer, basketball, and ping-pong are the most popular sports in China. This indicates that most Chinese people are not aggressive in nature. And, this gentle nature combined with the pains it has endured from the aggressive nations taught the Chinese government how to deal with many developing nations with respect. The goal is always win-win instead of the live-and-enslave western mentality. Religion: In China, about 15% of the Chinese people are Buddhists while 10% are Taoist. These two religions do not belong to the category of Monotheism which worships a single god. The religious persecution that drove settlers from Europe to the American colonies showed that the Monotheists could be non-flexible. In China’s history, religion had not been the primary reason used to initiate a war with other nations (e.g., Holy War and Crusades). Race:The majority of the people in China are Hans. The great warriors of Genghis Khan’s soldiers who invaded Europe were Mongolians. From time to time, they and the other ethnic minorities around China posed great threats to the Han Chinese kingdoms. In most cases, the Hans were just playing defense. Playing defense seems to be the norm of the Chinese policy until 2016 when Trump took over. Nowadays, Chinese people had enough of it. They started to fight back except towards the USA sometimes because China is forever grateful to USA for ending Japan’s aggression on China (www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2013/08/24/books/book-reviews/chinas-contribution-to-japans-defeat/). Neighborhood relationship: China has treated its neighbors well as reflected by the coherent rise of almost all Asian nations. There were some minor conflicts between China and India in 2019/2020. But, to the disappointment of some western nations, nothing serious really happened because of the agreement signed by the two nations prohibiting the use of modern weapons. That shows the gentle and restraint nature of both nations. China has no intention to treat any nation as enemy. Instead, China would be willing to corporate with any nation as long as this nation shows basic respect. If you are still not convinced about the gentle nature of Chinese people, think this way. It could have been great for the world and for the USA to have China at the other end of the bipolar world power. In fact, some nations in the world are only aligning with USA on the surface to avoid being bullied by the USA. Deep inside, they know that USA is the bully and just try to contain China to hang on to its world power. The only exception may be Japan which acts as the watchdog for USA. But, Japan might resist if America were to order them to attack China/Russia in a proxy war. Ultimately, USA has to face directly against China/Russia or the USA has to accept the United Nation based rule system. This bi-polar world power system could benefit USA and the world tremendously. Had it happened in year 2000, USA might have avoided many wars that were hurting other nations as well as itself. USA could have saved $10T (including the war in Ukraine, www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar) not to mention the lives that can be spared. If it were indeed so, God would have been truly pleased with USA.
The essence is that Taiwan's geography obviates the mainland's need to start a war. Taiwan's economy is extremely vulnerable. Business confidence on Taiwan will be further eroded.
How long did it take you to translate "your" comment from the Chinese?
Yes, you can see that people everywhere nowadays started to see through the barbaric nature of Anglo Saxon. Their aggressiveness and supremacy come from their beliefs that both democracy and science were invested by them alone.
You are still biased but you are awakening to the fact and realise that China is not the aggressor, it is the USA hegemony being threatened and you are often manipulating in to parroting the USA's foreign policy which yours is now mirroring. China does not want to 'dominate' only trade with respect - your model is of typical colonial times. China will only eventually 'reunite' with Taiwan peacefully - not with war as the USA always promotes as a 'threat' to Democracy and the rest of the Pacific - but the western MSM promotes conflict and aggression as war is profitable for their MIC who control both parties so the citizens there think they have a democracy and a choice but they haven't as whoever they vote for the MIC always deceide their policies and agendas. Corruption is legal and is called lobbying in the USA and the MIC controls everything. Why do you think they choose war and conflicts instead of putting the same amount of money towards their own citizens? The 'so called richest country in the world' with the highest incarceration rate, millions homeless, guns and drugs awash in the population, regular mass killings, dilapidated infrastructure, no universal free healthcare, lack of safety and security . . . you're sacrificing so that the elite and MIC can prosper but are convinced that you're doing it under the banner of 'freedom and democracy' - time to wake up!
@@alexanderzebroski2391 You speak as if anything coming from China is somehow suspect when the precise opposite is in fact true; namely that if it’s from China it is bound to be lovely, wholesome, and true….
Mr. White ignores its location closer to south east Asia, can‘t escape economic interaction with China. The idea that China presents a security threat is ludicrous. It is America that has been anxious seeing China‘s re-emergence as a dominant society.
Why ludicrous? China's 14 dot points itemising a raft of difficulties with the Australian government - labelled a “list of grievances”. This was China dictating the limits of Australian sovereignty
@@Andy-P And how did the Australia get to that point with China? I don't think Australia is that innocent in getting to that point with China. What did the Australia do with regard to Huawei both here and abroad? And What did Morrison do ?
@@jliang70 In 2021 The Chinese embassy’s 14 dot points itemising a raft of difficulties with the Australian government - labelled a “list of grievances. To satify these Chinese difficulties Australia would have had to give up some soverignty to China. Australia didnt back down - China did. China could still present these points again.
@@jliang70 Audtralia exercised soverign right and barred Huawei - just like China's new security law. Morrison 'dared' as a WHO enquiry into origins of Covid. Not only did China deny it started in China but blamed America. So China punished Australia with tarriff's. With new Australian government China quietly backed down
Professor White wants to ask Asian countries whether they prefer to be dominated by western powers or China, he forgets that most of them were European/American colonies that only gained their independence a few decades ago. The former Prime Minister of Malaysia once said, they have been neighbours with China for 2000 years and remained sovereign nations, yet western powers conquered them in less than a hundred years of arriving in the region. They know first hand what “western values” mean when directed at them. Also, ASEAN is one of the fastest developing regions of the world thanks to trade with China, while Latin America remains poor and tumultuous thanks to US interventions. It’s a no brainer whose sphere of influence Asian countries and other Global South countries prefer to be in, how presumptuous of Professor White to expect otherwise?
Portuguese came to Malaysia in 1509 and by 1511, conquered Malaysia by taking down the Malacca sultanate.
"Nine dash line", Indian-China war, Vietnam China war, China&N.Korea war, constant threats to Taiwan.
@@gregohb Study history of each of what happened with the ones you listed above and you 'll understand that they are not Chinese who instigated the wars.
@@JonKino828 the Chinese very much did instigate the Korean War, and were the main supporters in the Vietnam war - but thats the old China - now they have nukes, the biggest navy in the world, and they are openly threatening to nuke the US and Japan. Sure we can avoid war by kowtowing and never criticizing Winnie the Pooh. How did that go with Australia when you asked for a study of the origins of Covid? Total trade blockade. Same that Norway got when a dissident got the Nobel prize, and what happened to Korea when they installed a US anti-missile system. If China were to get primacy, we would all be in vassal states afraid to speak up. Freedom is for the brave, learning chinese is for the appeasers.
@@gregohb Is that what you were taught in your Anglo high school? China joined the Korean War only after the US decided to send their military to China’s doorstep. The “nine dash line” came from a smaller version of the “eleven dash line” that the govt in Taiwan still claims. Taiwan, Phillipines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei all have overlapping claims with each other in the SCS, but western media perpetuate the image that China is the odd one out. The US has 400 military bases surrounding China and has been sending gunboats up and down its coast since the 1950s. You expect China to sit tight and not protect itself? The US starts sh** around the world then blame others for reacting. Typical. 🙄
Asia has lived with Chinese power for millenia. To learn about living with Chinese power you just have to visit Indionesia, and Thailand. There are Chinese diaspora's which has settle and integrated with local society since centuries but never were there any Chinese colonies. They run all the major business and financial institutions argueable had helped these countries developed without compromising their soveriegnty. These historic examples do not suggest the Australia need to be afraid of Chinese regional power which is not a new phenomenon in historic terms.
The Western countries are just in denial.
Hugh White really deserves a much larger podium. He is surprisingly logical and pragmatic which is the polar opposite of most of the academics I’ve come across. His dispassionate yet enthralling argument for a multipolar world not only offers a survival path for Australia but an opportunity to thrive in the coming century. All Australia needs now is a leader with the moral courage and intellectual wherewithal to wean the country out of its sidekick mindset and start walking on its own.
Learn to live with China, you may find it is the best way to make life much better than before. Australian should be clever enough to have the knowledge.
Unfortunately the Western superiority complex has a solid hold of their brain and cannot accept that people of another complexion are superior to them.
Yes, Morrisons only know what the USA told him to do...n plenty of 🤑💰 in his own pickets instead of taking care of the aussies' lives n livelihoods 👀👀🧐🧐🤔🤔
The US GDP is severely overinflated. For example a treatment for insulin might cost $500 in total hospital charges in US, but the same treatment would only be $5 in most European countries or Canada, but US would record +$500 GDP for that but doesnt mean its getting 100x the value.
That is why PPP is used! After all, printing the Green Backs is just the cost of the paper used! We have to wait a little longer!!!
@Pahat pahat , printing paper dollar note is out of date now. They just issue massive digital loans to the banks to increase money circulation. No paper currency is required. Transactions are all digital. Then the banks give all kinds of lendings (cr cards, business loans, stimulus checks, student loans, credit facilities, etc) for spending. That's how money is created.
@@HeresMyView That's even more dangerous. You just need a few mouse clicks to add trillions into the system.
@@snslifestyleorg , exactly right! 👍😜 That's why the Trump and Biden administration can spent trillions of dollars just like that. Do you know that the national debt spending ceiling had already reached (money already spent), then congress is ask to approve the debt ceiling. So, when the approval is made, it is NOT the budget approved for FUTURE spending. It is to pay the national debts for money already spent!!! Then the whole budget exercise is repeated next yr. That is how US Debt spending works. 😂
That's why we use PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), because the Purchasing Power in the Usa isn't that great because everything costs alot of money, Housing, Healthcare, Education etc.
Also consider Jeffrey Sachs Interview - US-China Relations and Grand Strategy. Take 30 to 40 minutes to watch the above title, to learn a bit from a Columbia university economics professor. There are commonalities for the superpowers, as opposed to the war path we're headed.
Wow. How refreshing was that. Why hasn’t this been broadcast on the ABC or SBS. It’s a bit of an ask to think the commercial networks would pick it up but they should. The public need to be more informed. Only then will we be more engaged in global affairs and demand the quality of Leadership required to navigate us through these difficult changing times.
You maybe wondering why,the reason is America is a cult and nobody is supposed to ask questions of the cult system because that’s how it has the power to control its people from cradle to grave pledge to the flag with all your heart or you don’t love America and love the military and join to be part of the external control system and inside join the police,also go to the indoctrination university and work for the government,vote for the two party’s who are really one and the same.
@@ebonytv3414 You sound like you’ve been listening to Crass? How about this golden oldie? kzhead.info/sun/nd1udrGei6OcaKM/bejne.html
@@ebonytv3414 sorry you might not like that music going by the video’s you’ve posted but look up the lyrics to that song. I think you’ll appreciate them. Cheers 👍
@@andrewmantle7674 thanks for the comment 👍🏾
Also consider Jeffrey Sachs Interview - US-China Relations and Grand Strategy. Take 30 to 40 minutes to watch the above title, to learn a bit from a Columbia university economics professor. There are commonalities for the superpowers, as opposed to the war path we're headed.
It's going to be a multipolar world whether the collective "west" likes it or not.
Also consider Jeffrey Sachs Interview - US-China Relations and Grand Strategy. Take 30 to 40 minutes to watch the above title, to learn a bit from a Columbia university economics professor. There are commonalities for the superpowers, as opposed to the war path we're headed.
As tragic and bloody as it is, the war in Ukraine is a mere side show compared to what is actually happening between the so called unipolar world order and a newly emerging so called multipolar world order. It amounts to being a contest between a US dominated unipolar world that advocates neo-liberalism and a China dominated multi polar world that advocates neo-socialism. As for where this is leading the human race; the expression 'follow the money' is still relevant advice. The global economic centre of gravity is migrating from its Anglo/American/EU centres toward eventually settling within Eurasia, where it will be kept economically viable and secure by a core China/Russia strategic trading and military alliance.The US dollar as global reserve currency will be replaced by a multiple of gold backed currencies, enabling more economic security and trading flexibility between sovereign states and thereby eliminating the economic domination of a single nation state.
"secure by a core China/Russia strategic trading and military alliance". That alliance is a threat to all westerm democracies. Putin want to recreate the Russiam Empire. China wants to create her own
Epitomises typical Anglo Australian sentiments. It's a historical and racial sentiment that many Australians are clinging to, but will fade as the Baby Boomers pass on.
clear and balanced arguments! Australia is better off to be diplomatic with China/India, befriend Indonesia etc, less dependent on US protection for the eventual rise of India/China; their combined economy already equals US.
The choice is not ours to make. The ousting of Rudd and the installing of Giilard was at the direction of the CIA. You are with China, or you are with the USA.
THE ECONOMY OF CHINA HAS ALREADY SURPASSED THAT OF US, MEASURED BY PPP. FURTHER, DO NOT FORGET THAT CHINA IS THE BIGGEST BUYER OF AUSTRALIAN PRODUCTS. SO WHY ANTOGONIZE UR BUYER, JUST TO PLEASE UR "FRIEND" USA?
Australia along with rest of American partners see the Chinese threat. China seeks control and domination. CCP don't beliebve in human rights, democracy or the rule of law.
It is absolutely fascinating to watch White civilization grapple with the end of White supremacy
It's going to be very interesting how the non white people treat western whites in a multipolar world order.
"We've relied on them to keep Asia and make Asia safe for us" The US has recognized Asia as a potential threat in the top-secret U.S. Foreign Policy written 76 years ago. Japan and the Philippines are cornerstones of the strategy to keep Asia poor and divided. February 24, 1948, Declassified U.S. Foreign Policy: Furthermore, we have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3% of its population. This disparity is particularly great as between ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. ... that Japan and the Philippines will be found to be the corner-stones of such a Pacific security system and that if we can contrive to retain effective control over these areas there can be no serious threat to our security from the East within our time. Taiwan was added to the Pacific security system after Chiang's army retreated to the island of Taiwan in 1949. South Korea was added after the Korean War in 1953. The attempt with Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia was abandoned in 1975. The 1989 attempt in China failed. The 2019-2020 attempt in Hong Kong also failed.
Every caring adult Australian should listen to this lecture delivered by Australian Prof' Hugh White; it is an excellent analysis of the increasing geopolitical tension between China and the US within the SE Pacific Region. However, we should not assume that America is the only one with allies EG; The Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) strategy could continue to be a strong enough deterrent against nuclear war if and when Russia and China form a strategic military alliance that announces to the world in general and the US in particular; that a nuclear war against one would inevitably be a nuclear war against both, China and Russia. Only then might the strategy be MAD enough to deter the even more insane American neocons.
中国的国策是不结盟，历史的原因只有朝鲜一个盟友。中国国家主席习近平每年都说中国和美国的关系决定了人类的命运，说明彼此都有毁灭人类的能力
Excellent indeed! Also consider Jeffrey Sachs Interview - US-China Relations and Grand Strategy. Take 30 to 40 minutes to watch the above title, to learn a bit from a Columbia university economics professor. There are commonalities for the superpowers, as opposed to the war path we're headed.
I suggest Hugh updates his history of Russia...
Isn't it fascinating how a professor can be so uninformed?!
Hugh’s dissertation on this topic is very honest, logical, accurate and thus plausible from most Westerner thinking. But as he admits that he is not a Sinologist and takes cognisance of the views of those Sinologist, presumably of Western origin, those views Are Not from the Chinese. They are still Western perceptions of what they believe are of Chinese origins. As a Chinese who has been educated and lived in Australia for nearly 70 years, it is abundantly clear to me that if I interpret all Aussie behaviour from a Chinese perspective, I am going to be wrong, especially on issues which have a cultural slant. I believe that if Hugh did spent some time with Martin Jacques and Kishore Mahbubani discussing China and the Chinese, Hugh will be an invaluable asset to bridging the gap of Western perception of the Chinese, for Australia and more importantly to the Anglo Saxon diaspora all over the world. Just by way of a cursory realignment of thinking, the world assumes Chinese as a race, but it behaves as a culture. It has evolved over possibly over 5000 years, the constituencies been 56 ethnicities, of which more recent ones are the the Uighur and Hui Muslims, whose uniqueness are confronting the integration into the constant evolution of the “ Han Culture “ , the Hans as a race constitutes the dominant 85% of the population. The very nature of Culture imputes that Time can also be measured in larger scales in decades and even in centuries. Without this characteristic in the culture, the Great Wall whose construction spread over centuries, could not happened. The Grand Canal of 1800km as it is today, which started in 540 BC and completed in 1327. Yet in 2015, a busy bridge in Beijing was replaced in 43 hours for use of normal traffic. This demonstrates the propensity to embrace technology and the eagerness to adopt technology to advance its infrastructure. The underlying characteristic of the culture is that everything has a price to be paid, even in terms of human life, when the longer term or future is at stake. It is inconceivable for the West to condone the loss of millions of Chinese lives in Mao’s Great Leap Forward, Tiananmen Massacre etc., but without these, the people do not believe that China can advanced to what the nation is what it is, today. The difficulty for the West to comprehend the Chinese is its innate evangelical obsession which highlights the Chinese aversion to interfere in the internal affairs of nations they interact with, whether it is in trade or other matters. I hope this is the genesis for a departure of thinking, intractably embedded in Western thought and thinking. centuries
Also consider Jeffrey Sachs Interview - US-China Relations and Grand Strategy. Take 30 to 40 minutes to watch the above title, to learn a bit from a Columbia university economics professor. There are commonalities for the superpowers, as opposed to the war path we're headed.
The so call Tiananmen Massacre has been thoroughly debunked by Wikileaks's release of diplomatic cables. The "massacre" is a creation of Western intelligence agencies. It was all part of a "color" revolution attempt by the West.
Living with Chinese power will be much safer than, what the whole world had experienced, living with Anglo-Saxon and other European colonial powers. At least for the 1st 300 years...
professor Hugh White speaks a lot of down to earth common sense cognisant of current geopolitical realities. What should define Australian foreign policy should be based on Australian interests in the Asia Pacific balancing off the US, China, India and Indonesia. Countries like Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Phillipines are in the same boat. Perhaps there can be more cooperation with these countries to present a united voice for a multipolar world where there can be peaceful coexistence and trade moving away from a zero sum game strategy. If enough countries in south East Asia are united in their voice for neutrality, peaceful coexistence and trade. The four super and regional powers will be forced to listen. This could be one of the guard rails that will prevent conflict and war. 🤔
The Philiipines are in a separate boat. Just been rammed by a Chinese vessel in Phillipino waters
There is a fundamental flaw in Hugh White’s dissertation on war and for that matter all conflict as fundamentally, it has to defend an entity called Morality. Conflicts are caused by abrogation or diminishing of morality by one party more than the other and in order to try to reach an equilibrium, the parties can negotiate, and in certain circumstances they do arrive at parity of satisfaction. Even Hugh is wrong to assign that the breakdown of the Soviet Union is caused by the defeat at the hands of the West. The Soviet Union with age didn’t cater for the spiritual and economic aspirations of the various nations within it and politically, it imploded. Government change because the incumbent is not able to cater adequately to the needs and expectations of the governed. So if people infers incorrectly the reason for the demise of the Soviet Union, they will carry a baggage of incorrect assumptions with far reaching consequences as they will distort the image of the future. Hugh’s assertion of the war in the Ukraine is a direct consequence of the Invasion of Russia, is flawed because it ignores the compellingly reason the the West reneging on its undertaking to not expand NATO west of Germany when East and West Germany were allowed to reunite in 1990. Academics are generally snobs because they feel like they can pontificate and nobody can challenge them. There is such an entity as the fact and another truism that if you cannot feel like a Chinaman, you don’t think like a Chinaman and vice versa. So every idea Hugh interposes on what the Chinese would do belongs to him and whilst it makes good reading, it doesn’t represent the reality which will transpire. The Chinese on the other hand has a plethora of academics who have been educated and lived in the West and familiar with the nuances of the English Language. Hence they are more likely to read the correct interpretation. So this potential disconnect in understanding between diplomats and others is more likely to emanate from the West. The tragedy is the ill founded confidence the Westerners carry with them in interpreting the Chinese . Humility can go a long way to diminish this misstep and despite not educated in Mandarin, the likes of Prof.Kishore Mahbubani and Martin Jacques seem to read the Chinese well. Former US Ambassador Stapleton grew up in China and together with a couple of others have been great assets in consolidating US/China relationships in the past.
In times of rapid change crystal gazing is hard, it will be interesting to see if and how quickly this speech becomes dated.
This man is from a time when "The Coming Collapse of China" by Gordon Chang and "The End of History" by Francis Fukuyama were on the New York Times Best Sellers List. He is so shaken up by the future he's flubbing his speech.
GORDON CHANG WHO CLAIMED TO BE A CHINA EXPERT, NEVER WENT TO CHINA, MUCH LESS LIVED THERE. HE WAS TALKING OF A SUBJECT ABOUT WHICH HE WAS COMPLETELY IGNORANT. AS FOR FRANCES FUKUMAYA WHO WROTE "THE END OF HISTORY". HE WROTE IT NOT REALIZING THAT CHINA WOULD RISE SO RAPIDLY.
Eh?
US led order is morally better?
The US has to learn to live in a multi-polar world, for humanity's sake.
The Multi Polar world seeks co operation mutual benefit and no meddling in politics.
You mean with a country who is building transportation and trade, bringing millions out of poverty?
oh good, 26 thousand years of humanity. we are just beginning to learn how to live each other.
Morally better than China and Russia indeed! And said with a straight face as if we have never heard of the West’s serial insurgencies…. And as for economies, there are few if any other economies currently as centralised or fraudulent as those of the US and western countries…. Ditto for democracies that are skin deep procedural ones in the west that preclude the input of the electorate whereas China’s is substantive, requiring participation and feedback at the grassroots level…
So you would rarther live in Russia or China?
@@Andy-P Yes! And definitely not USA, I don't wanna get shot buying candy. 😁😁
@@andrewlim7751 You are free to choose. I don't want to be shot for resisting Putin or Xi invaders
Most of all,the Chinese leaders are first required to be qualified,proven great leaders first, before they get to the election pool for election. So,you can be assured whoever on the leadership position is definitely capable of discharging their responsibility n duties. The world see clowns in the like of USA,UK,Aussie prime ministers,right??
Prof. H. White is one of few exception people who is willing to stick his neck to narrate a narrative that is contrary to mainstream government storyline which the politicians want you to accept.
This man leaves out a lot unfavorable facts unfavorable to the western narrative
o (edited) "Chinese and Arabs brought prosperity, white people brought sorrow." Quote from a South East Asian native. (He simply referred to Chinese and Arabs in general) For peace and prosperity, I wholehearted wish China will be the #1 superpower that force the USA to look inward minding their own problems and causing less sorrow for all of us.
The US is in terminal decline. It can't even take care of itself.
China does not seek to dominate as all their main goal is to secure economic growth for them and the region. They have no interest in war unless provoked. If Australia continues to follow the US, it will serve no benefit to Aussies. China is happy to trade fairly with their partners and look for win win. But for Countries who continue to bring up fake issues like Xinjiang and Hong Kong and even to stir up color revolution and think they can still trade as if nothing has happened, then there's no point in discussing with China because they will not budge on those topics.
China doesn't trade fairly. They have huge state subsidies, IP theft, closed markets ect.
What are our value we see people in America homelessness and poverty and lots of killing in America, The answer is simple get NATO out of Eastern Europe that what Putin wanted a buffer zone between East and West it makes sense, We don't talk peace that's a good value to have, Please tell what are your value
What happens if Tulsi Gabbard wins the next election to be President Tulsi Gabbard is for peace which would change everything
My understanding of her is that she is against senseless wars. I’m sure she recognizes that actual “real” threats can and do arise.
Tulsi wants to maintain US hegemony via peaceful means. Let others fight for US, much like what Ukraine is,doing now.
I am a huge fan of Mr Wright. His current analysis of global politics is spot on !
Multipolar order combination. 1) US and Western countries + Japan, South Korea 2) Russia and East Europe countries, China , North Korea. 3) ASEAN countries 4) Middle East countries + Pakistan. 5) India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka. 6) Africa continent countries 7) Latin America Countries 8) Also all other small pacific island countries.
Also consider Jeffrey Sachs Interview - US-China Relations and Grand Strategy. Take 30 to 40 minutes to watch the above title, to learn a bit from a Columbia university economics professor. There are commonalities for the superpowers, as opposed to the war path we're headed.
Whatever anyone says about China, China has not invaded Australia and massacred the Aborigines
A wise pragmatic and peaceful man.
The key is integrity and whoever is worthy of upholding that. A peoples wealth and happiness has to be measured over many hundreds of years along with it's transparency of rule to measure it's greatness as a kingdom. A democratic puppet based model may not necessarily be superior to what China presently has which could be improved by changing the Confucius concept of hierarchy. A worthy leader of both family and of state should be based on the capacity to earn and share the fruits of it's work. How a civilisation traditionally treats the marketplace is also of extreme importance and the trust built from business relationships without the need for legal practitioners.
A big fan of Mr. White. Unlike other "experts", Mr. White is honest.
And who do you think is being dishonest Lee? Practically no analyst agrees with Hugh, does being wrong make honest or is it more you are Chinese and like what you are hearing?
@@derekshaw8050 America has 800 military bases around the world. America has been at war with somebody throughout its history. Is China the threat? America supports Saudi Arabia, Does America really care about human rights? You should ask yourself the same question. Do you like what you hear because you are white?
@@johnlee-yo8jc 50c has been deposited right into your account Bing Lee. Keep this up and you'll have a higher social credit score.
@@derekshaw8050 It is difficult for racist like you to comprehend, but I am an attorney in America. So, go back to your trailer, drink your beer and pretend you are better than other people.
@@derekshaw8050 Lmao, this is called freedom of speech and he can say what he believes. Also, if you can’t name one dishonest analyst, it means you are damn blind and others can’t wake up those who pretends to be asleep. Have you heard Gordon Chang ? Or is that you, Gordon ?
How could one turn their back on the rules based international order? One can only look in awe at a country that's prepared to sacrifice their economy to be a part of it. Listening to the prof makes me realize how out of step i am with the intelligencia
Taiwan is not our core interest and their conflict is their wwii civil war continuation. Our border is wide open to let in millions invade every year. What is the point to focus on Taiwan?
The Southern Hemisphere needs some longterm Presidents and PMs ,its a must for the Stability for progressive progress of countrys to align too
During the question and answer session, a gentleman said he thinks it is too expensive for China. I could not agree more. And indeed it is much more than expensive. It is affordability. China simply could not afford any war at all because it has 1.4billion mouths to feed. China has shown to the world that peace is number one important. It is for the world of course. But it is more for itself. It could not afford a war.
这也说明中国领导人更关心本国人民的生活
NOT THAT CHINA CAN NOT AFFORD A WAR, BUT IT IS NOT A WARLIKE COUNTRY, UNLIKE THE US.
Stay neutral Australia there is no need to be hostile to China. Dont side with either China or the US look after yourselves.
Selective observations by Hugh White when he says the US hasn’t been an intrusive power in the Western hemisphere. To his credit he is much more pragmatic and clear about Australia’s place in Asia than the warmongers, though as with all other so called China experts, he fails to understand that China will never attack Taiwan if the troublemakers leave the people of Taiwan to coexist with the mainland.
There has to be Large stability for commerce to pivot around.
It is great to hear the facts. Unfortunately we hear a lot of bulldust from the blissfully ignorant people.
What about India and Indonesia they could be number one economy in 10 years if that the case the war with China be a waste of time,
You obviously have no idea what India or Indonesia is. Anyone who knows both countries well will tell you neither country has what it takes to overtake China.
India is not going to overtake China in economic development anytime soon, maybe in 100 years later. However, India will overtake China in population as soon as 1-2 years, that I totally agree India will have a #1 ranking spot in the near future. The current GDP of China is 5x of India. So, for example: if China continues to grow at 5% vs India at 7.5% per annum, it will take India 130 years to be equal with China. To surpass China, India will have to grow 35% per annum in GDP for the next 25 years since their GDP is 5x lower. We all can agree that a 35% GDP growth is impossible. India, keep dreaming or just wake up to reality. Even if India is capable as China starting from 2023, it will face huge obstacles from USA because USA will do whatever to prevent India to surpass them to fall into 3rd economic power after China and India. In the mindset of the USA, it’s already bad to be #2 (inevitable) but in 3rd, no way. We will utilize the strategy of “divide and conquer” to keep others down. m.kzhead.info/sun/ntB8mpdqjWuvlmg/bejne.html
They will be huge economies but they won't be no. 1 in the next 50 years. Beyond that, I have no idea. I'll probably be in heaven or hell or nowhere by then. A nuclear war between US and China would destroy the world. No economies to consider at all. There is already an ongoing economic and technical war between US and China.
Found it a very informative discussion, looking forward to getting through the quarterly essay.
Absolutely Fascinating! TEAM CHINA ALL THE WAY!👍🙂
This biased man talks about Russia's invasion of Ukraine but not a word about America's invasion of Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and so many others. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is justified for National Security reason --- NATO was expanded from 16 countries to 30 all the way to the Russian border, Ukraine was the straw that broke the camel's back. When the U.S.S.R. shipped missiles to Cuba, we know what happened. Would America do nothing if Mexico and China formed a military alliance and allowed Chinese military bases in Mexico? The genocide in Gaza is supported with U.S. money and weapons. How is the U.S. unipolar "rules based order" fair and moral??????
Thank you Prof White. Most of all for laying out a context broad enough for grappling seriously with the questions you raised. One thought on China - I worry it might copy the US as a model of what it means to be a superpower if it ever reaches that status. But as to its aggressiveness towards Taiwan, I blame the US. It knew the mind of China's leaders, took advantage of it and drove a wedge between the two. And China fell for it!
Morally better???? Pure evil!!!!!!!!!
What a difference a year makes huh.
Chinese economy bigger than America's and will get bigger...... yea right.
According to ancient scriptures in Aramaic language, is that both countries will be aligned together. It mentions Gog (Russia) and Magog (China) will become ONE together alongside all countries that end names in -stan like Pakis-stan and all countries that are on their border's will join them to become ONE Force together. Shalom the Truth will set you free.
America in the Western hemisphere has not been intrusive? You may want to speak with some of our Latin American neighbors about that. I agree that Australia could be comfortable in a multi-polar world. As far as playing China and India off of each other, unless China is greatly reduced through a war with the United States, India will not be on par with China in military or economic power for some time-probably for the rest of the century. As a great power India may be on par with Russia, but of course Russia will probably have a very limited role in the Pacific because of their geography, but it won't be non-existent.
Many of the world's problems stem from one group considering themselves superior to another and denying the rights or existence of others, believing that they are entitled to more than others. These divisions can be based on race, religion, gender, class, politics, nationality, culture, generation, education, ability, and geography. One group even has a written agreement with God that grants them special privileges and land. All of these divisions are caused by a scarcity mindset, characterized by fear of losing something, anxiety about not having enough, insecurity about lacking security, and greed for more. This mindset always strives for a win-lose outcome, where one's gain is someone else's loss. As Obama's Pivot to Asia suggests, "If over a billion Chinese citizens have the same living patterns as Australians and Americans do right now, then all of us are in for a very miserable time. The planet just can't sustain it." This scarcity mindset often leads to war, military action, colonization, slavery, and exploitation. However, these divisions can be mitigated by adopting an abundance mindset, which is characterized by cooperation, resource-sharing, and win-win outcomes. Avoiding war by using tools such as trade, commerce, diplomacy, and connectivity is possible. The scarcity mindset views the abundance mindset tool kit as coercive trade, debt trap, wolf warrior diplomacy, despotic infrastructure, assertiveness, and aggressively peaceful. It is the difference between mindsets. Each thinks that it is acting rationally and is on the right path. The world's richest and most powerful country faces these problems: Economic inequality, inflation, stagnant real wages for the last forty years, costly healthcare, an expensive education system, student loan debt totaling $1.7 trillion with an average balance of $38,000, poor public transportation systems, racial inequality, mass incarceration, the militarization of police, deteriorating infrastructure, housing affordability, homelessness, the opioid epidemic, and gun violence. Regional poles: African Union, 1340 million India, 1408 million China, 1412 million European Union, 747 million ASEAN, 683 million Latin American Union, 654 million Islamic Union, 512 million Five Eyes (US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), 399 million Non-regional organizations: BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), 3400 million Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), 3200 million Pan-Islamic Union, 1800 million This professor is advocating cleverly playing off each of these poles against each other.
Great speech
Typically Australian. Mumbling away. Australia must pivot to Asia. For its own comfort and prosperity. USA is too far away…..and declining. Britain is no more.
Good point Europe had a multi-polar order for a long time. And as the CCP keep pointing out a good few wars.
good work
Take it easy! Chinese cannot be bothered to muddle with Australia's fair, beside fairness. Other eye for eye😂
The political air in US has no room for muti-polar system.
11.00. Broadly supported only by 13% of the world population, aka the minority, if we talk about this democratically. The West should stop this condescending attitude. 200 years of Western domination as compared to 3-5000 years of Indian, Chinese, etc. Culture and Civilisation. Wow.
White is wrong. The alternative is a system which his more financial oriented which also is able to accommodate a wider range of political systems. Isn't that a better form of democracy? This system will be more focus on good governance versus ideology.
The thing is Westerners are not Asians ... Culture is so different. Besides there is mo Winning in a War but Win-Win is about Co-Existence. We have experienced what's it like in CoVid, in nature there could another similar to 'CoVid' where millions is at stake. War is about Power. Why War where there is Peace?
Q 2 is for Ukraine and Russia be one country, Q 3 carry on the same with the killing and war
Why are Anglos so obsessed with power - to subjugate others?
With all the atrocities done by the devils in Africa how can this guy talk about morality?
The world caused Brexit to tell a Royal Conterfeit Goods had been noticed.
Thank You ❤️🇦🇺🦾😇👋
Using Chinese against Chinese
Living with British and American power was just as Bad
America not intrusive in other countries’ internal politics? That must be meant to be a joke!?
All occupiers in Australia must leave.
What do we want ,The American system people living in poverty and homelessness I wont to know who looks after it people the best ,Australia sacrifice it troops, and we have people homeless and in poverty, China is getting there people out of poverty, in other words CHINA is looking after it people a lot better
We will not
Kudos to the Royal Society. This was a thoroughly intellectually honest lecture. So satisfying to watch.
20 minutes into the video and stop watching, made a lot of projections and baseless presumptions while neglecting the obvious evidence.
Who are these people and what do they want? How did they get on my feed? I'm getting hungry, what's for lunch?
Ignorance is bliss!
Hugh wrote the last paragraph of his speech first…….. clearly has more reading to do. Don’t stop now
Some people claimedi was mad byilding canals in the niddle of rhe outback,,but they ikwd ut when i leasedThe Great Barrier Reef and Aires Rock .ThisBrit likes publicswith financiL options.
Ten Grand Pomnes dont disagree Sir ....
I don’t think there is a town or city in the world where you can’t get and egg roll and some fried rice. Chinese cuisine has been at to forefront of Chinese power for centuries. Chinese have converted billions of people to be fans of their local Chinese restaurant.
C'mon in SPINNER!!
Clearly he hasn't seen the trending hashtag #WarForTaiwan on X (formally known as Twitter) 😂
living with prc is easy. i wish oz would learn to live without usa. i know the place well - really, no ethical person would have anything to do with them.
Please talk to the expat in Russia and China and they say how safe it is in Russia and how safe it is in China children in China and Russia are safe How safe are they in America no not safe in the streets, How many troops have we sacrifice for America with out a sense of purpose,
Very good point of view and good lecture
Australia First. All kidding aside, United States will defend Taiwan, cheaply. Professor White, although this is difficult, need to outline what Australia is willing compromise with China in exchange.
That is the assumption that leads to conflict
Australia doesn't need to compromise anything with China, all we need is for our leader to show them respect and that's enough. Respect goes both ways.
T Wood : well said !
@@jimt2762 again playing the zero sum game brainwashed by the US, the real master of Australia. In a game of you lose, I win is very risky and lethal.
Looking at China’s major trading partners around the world, nobody has compromised anything, it’s been mutually beneficial for all parties involved, unlike western relationships with the Global South
Yeah we love bullys !
The world want a new leader " China " ...the last one sucks😂
The framing of this video is problematic, it should be reframed to "Living with multipolar power" not Chinese, why? xi jinping time and again reiterated that China is not interested in leading but rather leave it up to BRICS
This is 21st Centuries Era not the 20th Centuries now Everything things Changes is norms accordingly naturally Adaptations is needed to Changes is Common sense . Forget the past in Changing world situations rest depends the mindset Frames . China left the rest in it trajectory momentum for its Survival those who wish to contain will regrets those who cooperate will benefits 😂❤🎉. Fate and Time Never wait and listen to anybody no matter How Powerful and intellectual, rich ,academic one is 😂❤🎉 .