Military Strategist Shows How China Would Likely Invade Taiwan | WSJ
What was once unthinkable-direct conflict between the United States and China-has now become a commonplace discussion in the national security community as tensions continue to escalate between Taiwan and China. Two big indicators that cause analysts concern is Xi Jinping saying Taiwan belongs to Beijing and will be reunified and their massive military buildup over the past 20 years.
WSJ spoke with the CSIS’s Mark Cancian, who lays out the outcome of a potential war in the Taiwan Strait based on the organization's recent wargames.
Chapters:
0:00 China-Taiwan tensions rising
1:00 Background on Taiwan
2:02 The war game
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#China #Taiwan #WSJ
China plans to boost its military spending by 7.2% this year as Xi Jinping continues to modernize the armed forces. Read more about Beijing’s plan to continue to build up its military: on.wsj.com/3uWnu1K
😂only 1.5% of gdp
@@Im-mono4% of GDP.
My opinion is China is making the world think they are gearing up for a major war but all they are doing is making the US spend more and more bleeding us dry from different angles from the fentanyl crisis to us spending more and more on our military budget because of the fears of China’s Power aggression in the Asian sea
7.2% in dollar or yuan?
Everyone reading this keep in mind, this is the military spending REPORTED by the CCP. Our intelligence agencies believe that there is MUCH more being spent in secret, in order to hide their buildup. The Chinese are now estimated to be spending more than the Americans on military. The Americans and they allies are going to need to increase spending in the coming years to contain this new evil.
In the Pentagon's underground facilities there is a secret room where trainees play Age of Empires II, Civilization VI, Victoria II, Europa Universalis, Star Craft etc...
We can just get AI to do that for us now 😅
Served there - it's actually a lot of card games, video games, shooting the breeze over hot coffee and donuts...
Arrh been there!
ononononooo
@@roydiehl sounds like a lot of wasted taxpayers money
Half the people watching this: “A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be catastrophic!” The other half: “That game looks cool!”
im both
😅Same. Found this worth sharing. If China does pull off an invasion of Taiwan, could they do it by 2050 if not 2027? By Quinton Smith China had "invaded" Taiwan in 1946 and renamed "Japanese colony - Taiwan" to "Taiwan Province of China"! (If the liberation of colonies can be called an "invasion", then the evil Western colonists must have become "saints". The emancipation of the British Colony-America seemed superfluous) Taiwan Provincial Government Office Building, located at No. 1, Shengfu Road, Nantou City, Nantou County, Taiwan You can check whether Taiwan's constitution says "Constitution of the Republic of China"? Is Taiwan’s airline called “China Airlines”? If Taiwan is not part of China, why is Taiwan's civil aviation company called "China Airlines"? Is Taiwan’s Steel called “China Steel Corporation”? If Taiwan is not part of China, why is Taiwan’s steel called “China Steel Corporation”? The Taiwan question is China's internal affair, a legacy of China's civil war, and a family matter for the Chinese, and has nothing to do with white-skinned, blue-eyed, speaking with a forked tongue Yanks. -CaiLei Even if you don’t understand Chinese, the Republic of CHINA says it all. Btw, the ROC still claims the administrations rights to ALL of CHINA, so the PRC is only forced to fight an illegitimate puppet regime propped up entirely by the USA that try to subjugate the entire Chinese population under USA control. CHINA STEEL Advanced High Strength Steels According to the study undertaken by the World Steel Association (worldsteel), the use of AHSS to replace the plain carbon steel can reduce the body weight by 25%, save 5.1% fuel consumption, and reduce 5.7% greenhouse gas emissions ... Taiwan is in China, and there are China’s symbols everywhere. Can you succeed in de-Chinaizing it? 🤣
This is a great game, I bet if mighty Afghan army, which was armed to the teeth with US tax payers hard-earned money, had played this game, they would probably not to make themselves disappearing when Taliban showed up on their door steps.
@@user-cr6yp7vx9r As an Afghan Army Officer, I confirm that in 2021 when the Taliban taking over Afghanistan we 100% successfully defeated them in the board game several times (Theoretically).
Let’s asked AI when war starts.
Did I just watch a 70 year old grandpa play a round of board game against himself?
@dalee2419 no, the wargame was already completed and Cancian simply replayed the events. Normally there will be two groups of people, American defense specialists vs people who have studied china and its military. The two groups go through a variety of scenarios and make their conclusions for the US military
No, you just watched a propaganda video (naive story for fools), in the geopolitical war against China.
Did you not see the other guy simulating the scenario with him that they showed multiple times in this video?
Retired USMC Colonel 70 year old grandpa, yes
That's ageism what you are saying, Sir. Don't you think that's cynical?
He didn't even show us his 12-sided dice! For this game, I bet they're made of depleted uranium.
lol
Wargames like this don't use dice, everything is done by tables and maybe a referee.
You made me laugh so much!
"Please stay conventional. Please stay conventional. Please stay conventional." - Everyone on the planet
More like - please don't get involved US. The Chinese are fighting for what they think as an integral part of China, while the US would be fighting for chips - is that really so worth it to destroy the global economy over? How about instead just boosting domestic prodction or even god forbid, be a trade partner with China
even if they do we will all feel the effects, not just in our pockets and much more pronounced than the Ukraine war did so far
You think China has nukes that work? Based on what evidence?
Or nice, my comments have been deleted (I didn't swear and didn't say anything bad btw). You don't want to hear the truth ? No problems. Keep living in nirvana. But don't forget that one day real life will sting painfully. But it will be too late.
Only use 'conventional' WDM's, you mean.
Ok can they actually sell this game though? It looks better than most of the current strategy games 😆
Hasbros would probably buy and sell it
I need a Friday night with a couple friends, beers, pizza and play this game.
GMT Games has a game called Next War: Taiwan. The second edition is coming out later this year.
It kinda looks like hoi4 with all the little tiles and units
funny guy, it looks like boardgames we played in 1980s. But they say they 'Stop' and calculate losses. So they are not rolling dices. It is that calculating thingy that I want to get my hand on and the weapon performance databases.
China casually seeing this and saying - "Hmmm. We should rethink our strategy and avoid this scenario" 🤣
This is not as likely a scenario as this video wants you to believe.
@@Frizzlemanit’s actually China’s best case scenario
@@gregb5683 how does China attacking Japan help them take Taiwan?
@@Frizzlemanus military bases on japan, major resupply point for US. its basically most of the reason the bases even exist.
The Chinese philosopher, Confucius, would say buy a second board game and add more pieces to your side.
This is a war where one side talks about fighting but is afraid to fight, While the other side fears it will lose but will not lose.
You do realise what you said applies to both sides right?
只要习主席想赢，军队就会帮他赢
US will lose in the long run even if China doesn't succeed at first try since the Chinese have greater industrial capacity.
🐼Panda doesn't have the grape fruits to pluck the Bald Headed eagle!🦅😂🙃😉👍
Surprised the U.S. bases in the Philippines weren't mentioned.
And South Korea's
I guess those are more classified
@@yungphameThey aren't. Pretty well known bases.
Espionage and Sabotage of Naval Bases in Singapore and Australia where the US are likely to dock and resupply. There wont be any military presence but remember there many CCP agents, sympatisers and anyone can be paid handsomely by the Chinese to do their bidding.
Because China will consider the intervention of other nations as an act of war. Taiwan is an island and cannot be supplied like Ukraine. To do that, the Chinese navy has to be dealt with and that cannot happen without external military intervention.
It seems hexagons are the bestagons for war games.
Called sectors, the bestagons originated on a map like this
Hexagons are the bestagons indeed
I understood that reference!
ahh .. a fellow man of culture I see. Hexagons *_are_* the bestagons.
Slava BOBA Tea ☕ 🇹🇼
one thing they didn't show the moment taiwan was attacked, taiwan's southern part which is situated on Luzon Strait , luzon strait is a part of the philippines which is a maritime border is obliged to defend taiwan as well phillippines' closest island the ikbayat island is only under 200km and the americans are already set up bases on the northern most part of the philippines via the Defense treaty of the two countries
美國連也門都不敢打
@@user-bs2fd3gs4k Theres a video of Chinese soldiers in Afrika who were crying after they got ambushed. Oh wait, you have not watched it because its censored by the Chinese Commushit party, just like Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.
要说日本可能还有点用，菲律宾?中国海警就够他对付的了
Also, attackers should lose far more troops and equipment than defenders. This game didn't show that.
Great info
What are the system requirements to play the game?
I played one of these hexagon turn-based war games a few decades ago. It took more than 30 minutes to set up and over four to eight hours to finish the game. After playing for three hours, it became too boring, a truce was declared and all the pieces go straight back to the box and never to be seen again.
In undergrad I had nerdy friends who would play them…some took 3+ days…
The closest thing I've played that is similar to this game is Axis & Allies. What game is this that they playing or what game closely resembles what they were doing? I'd love to look into this, it might be my new favorite board game.
@@codyelder9201it’s one of those old war games back in the 19th century. Played on a giant map. There are much better version of it now since the longest one (D-Day) took seceral weeks to play out. It is sand table exercise.
Yes
oh man, that reminded me of the board game attack, one game in our friend group took weeks to finish. everyone sneaky sneaky making alliances and breaking them the same day. and no1 trusting each other:P when 2 people were just randomly talking other players tried to listen in to hear if we were forging alliances.
Did they roll dices for the outcomes of each battles lol
Statistical probability.
Virtual dice
Table of random numbers
Did they cards for territory captured?
No, an acne faced 14-year-old "Dungeon Master" called the shots.
This is a completely avoidable scenario. No one should want the US & China to fight.
No one sane. The same could be said of Ukraine and Russia but look at them now...
Totally agreed. There will be no miltery involment in US and Chainese will also not attack US bases
I can assure you China vs Taiwan will not be another Ukraine: 1. China has much more self restraint compare to Russia. 2. No country will want to fight China, not even Taiwan themselves. If you know Taiwanese, they are soft and they just want good life, and they know deep inside CCP rule will just bring prosperity to them more so than their current corrupt government. 3. Even if the West don't admit it, everyone knows they need Chinese products.
You know the worst part of this whole situation? I've just been to Taiwan for the first time and it's a whole country of extremely polite, quiet, nice people, with a highly functional Democratic government and a beatiful and highly modern country. It's exactly what China could be if it hadn't had the cultural revolution. It's just an amazing place and for this enclave of polite and functional Chinese culture to be lost to the CCP is just a nightmare
As a Taiwanese, thank you for mentioning this. People here don’t seem to notice this😢
American puppets
@forrestallison1879 taiwan is just an american puppet just like japan and south korea. Also if China doesnt care about its culture then why they proudly display their 5000 years history in 2008 olympics opening ceremony?
totally agree, im part chinese and when my family spent the holidays there, they were really respectful and not loud in Taiwan, one could forget they're still "Chinese"
@@EMPTYCUP111 they are still ethinic Chinese and they cant that. also extremely racist to say that all Chinese are loud and disrespectful. taiwan is just a usa puppet.
What I Heard Is Japan Needs Lots Of Air Defense
wait, why there is anything to do with Japan?....oh, right, US military base
The west doesn't have good land based air defence system available. a good system need multi-layer and mobility.
Which they're getting. They're getting defense systems the US only provides to key allies, like Canada, the UK, and recently Poland and Japan (Aegis systems). To give perspective on how advanced and secretive, we use Aegis in part of our homeland anti-nuclear missile shield. The Japanese are building two of the largest naval ships in the world with these system installed (the idea is to having it be a moving missile defense base to avoid the base bombing the Chinese attempted at 6:00). They'll also be there in the case that North Korea enters the war.
@@keli4068 Western systems have completely blunted the Russian airforce and missile forces. China may have some more success but I dont know where you get this info.
@@shawnz3307Ok, that’s an American Ally which allows us to put our bases there what’s your point?
Where can I get that game
This is same "Military Stratigist" that said "Russia will take Kyev in 3 days"...
If they operated like israel they would’ve but they don’t want to kill that many civilians.
Everyone thought that, Russia was too incompetent to carry it out.
Yea but to be fair... no one knew just how bad the Russian army was
@@Te-gg4otlmao not a rusbot. We all saw the videos of Russian soldiers executing civilians bud.
@@Te-gg4otso what about those grave sites that were found? What about the videos of executions?
This video barely gave any details. Might as well have showed a game of monopoly.
what details needed? If they will talk about how units trade, how they move etc, it would be educational video for very narrow audience. This is not neccesary here. If you want to know about how it works, try this and iterate. Get some books, etc. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_wargaming
Read the CSIS paper if you want details. it's free. and make sure to stop by the CSIS store!
most likely scenario: partially take island, but loses naval fleet, devastates CCP's hold, and devastates Taiwan's economy. Requires Japan's airbases. Unlikely that whatever classified advantages/disadvantages are present would be told in the open. US does not want war to break out. Out of the public info you're able to get, this is what you got. The wargame rules are structured like the real conditions (e.g. the game rules aren't arbitrary or unlike how it could play out) and played many times with many strategies. Similar to using video games to try to fold molecules, you can then run the weird strategy of the PoliSci students through actual classified data and adjust odds. Likely that there's probably more cards / boosts / rules at play, say "US refill rate is 20% faster but chinese communication rate between units is 30% faster" that you aren't going to get in a turn-based time game.
@@cw6043 How would they even get to Taiwan without getting their navy obliterated by allied forces/Taiwan. The strait is 3x WIDER than the normandy strait that the allies had to cross. They didnt even mention it in the video.
@@jakob6960 a surprise invasion?
They should stream these games in full.
i bet this thing took days to play out
with over the top e-sports esque commentary. "the invasion of Taiwan is brought to you by.... Evian... stay ready for war... stay hydrated... Evian...."
Competitive finals start 2027..
Where can I get the rules sheet?
Where can we buy this exact game?
It is not a game like usual games, where the story is pre determined. In this game you have real people using their brains to play and the outcome is unknown at first.
HOI4 players, its our time to shine!
Yup
Quick download Millennium Dawn comrade!
ye boiii
Slava TSMC 🇹🇼
Putin: i like that game
Interesting. As someone interested in military games myself. I was always curious how those military game simulations worked.
They roll a D6 for pro-American propaganda
Search Wargaming Handbook from UK Ministry of Defense.
It always add 30% buff onto US military. Try simulate Vietnam war. You will know how wrong it is
boringly, unfortunately
I don't care
Where do I get one of those maps?? Who makes em??? Just wondering...
fun question actually idk
Speaking from experience, there are way too many variables that were not mentioned in this video. I wonder why that is...
Then answer it genius
@ElNegus9985 - It's not experience that I can share, but thanks for trying. 👍
@@ElNegus9985 the main thing not mentioned is how other asian countries would react, would Japan, South Korea or the Phillipines aid Taiwan? how about economic sanctions put on China for their aggression? Sanctions that were put on Russia were bad, but they would be far more devastating to China, enough to completely collapse their economy, that might be enough to end the war. Would Russia and Norht Korea get involved? Would North korea attack South Korea, splitting US forces in the area? What about China and India? would India take advantage of this and reclaim some Himalayan land?
@@stuart4341 China would likely agree terms with India and Russia to strengthen their position.
Stupid question.1
The map is like civilization
No. Civilization's latter edition maps are like the war games'.
No, civilization is 100X simpler.
What will happen to the warranty on my chinese EV in Australia 😅
void
You will be labeled a traitor by buying CCP shitbox and support enemy forces
If China won, it's ok. Unless the Aussie gov ban them.😅
I think thats down to you, considering you bought a chinese EV.
The chinese government would probably instruct companies to stop doing business with foreign customers. Whether they obey this or not is up to them but they likely wouldnt service your warranty
This assumes that the US would engage in an all out military naval conflict with China, and that China would invade Japan, both of which seem extremely unlikely.
It may sound unlikely if you’re not familiar with geopolitical alliances and the overall situation in that part of the world. If China attacks Taiwan, Japan would step in.
@@EhCloserLook or any US ally in the region, which includes SK, Australia and the Philippines
Please sell a simplified version of this board game CSIS :(
Though it left out some things. Such as, there is no mention of the Taiwanese air force or Taiwan’s navy & its own fleet of ships and submarines, as well as Taiwan’s own cruise and ballistic missiles. Lastly, it also left out both Taiwanese and Chinese special forces and spies, whose sabotage, assassinations, and espionage would play a major role in a hypothetical war. And there are many more things which are also important, such as other western countries reactions, NATO's reactions, as well as reactions of South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia, etc.
They also didn’t include the thousands of short and intermediate range cruise missiles China has pointed at Taiwan. Odd that none of these so called war gamers would use such an obvious advantage
@@scottwebb4722 thats why china is already invading the taiwan they already use their missles on taiwan defenses they already invading the land. taiwan loses its navy and air force, taiwan military force to evacuate in underground bases because of china's missiles
It is an overly simplified declassified representation for video demonstration. Either all the other stuff is built into the "calculations" or are simply removed from the video.
The key is how willing the US is determined to protect Taiwan. If it just "aids" Taiwan like they did to Ukraine, then China is likely to win. Otherwise I'd say China doesn't even stand a chance. Weapons (especially rockets) the military bought with a huge amount of money from Russia turned out to be trash in the Ukriane war. The military is corrupted AF that many top leaderships are either in prison or have committed suicide. and without any fundamental institutional reform within, I don't see any changes will happen. As a result, in terms of technology, Air Force, Navy, surrounding Allies, ... the US simply have a huge huge edge in every aspect.
@@oatyfrye6758 Yea, it was probably assumed all that stuff mentioned would be "thrown" at the start of the war which is why they started China surrounding Taiwan and landing on its beaches.
US is building a port in a Philippine island very close to Taiwan. 100 of the island's inhabitants have become military reservist.
Yes, they completely forgot that the Philippines will also be basing US fighter aircraft and long-range bombers. Also, I'd add that if the PLA attacked US aircraft or navy vessels then the US would likely strike the PRC staging areas on the mainland. In a scenario where Japan is attacked, there would surely be a wider war with allies such as the UK and Australia along for the fight to end the PRC's attack.
@@blazinchalice The Germans would be sure to send helmets.
Probably a reaction to these tests or something. They think a southern invasion is most likely, hence the northern Philippine bases.
@@blazinchaliceyou really think that the shinese are just going to let you bomb them. Lol. You don't even know what the shinese are capable of. Lol.
@@user-yw4rx6kb3r I have some idea what the United States is capable of, and I am confident that if there were a necessity, the USA would be able to strike targets that they needed.
On which side is CSIS research assistant Chris Park?
First of, the 2016 Arbitral Ruling is not illegal. It is very legal not just in the Philippines but also accepted globally and has become part of UNCLOS. Only China continues to insist that it is illegal, despite being an UNCLOS signatory. Secondly, China's sovereignty claim over areas within its so-called 9 or 10-dash line has already been declared illegal and this ruling was accepted globally. Thirdly, China cannot claim sovereignty over the area by using historical claims because even its history and historical maps did not consistently and clearly define the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and even the the Paracel Islands as its own territory. Lastly, China cannot claim the South China Sea as its own lake and part of its territorial waters because it is not a lake and its not within their land boundaries. Even if China includes Taiwan as its territory, it is not enough to support a claim of sovereignty over the SCS, more so the WPS.
Grown up’s world may be too difficult for you to understand, different entity will have different claims, all claims sounds legit in their own way, the difference is, do you have enough power to back your claims up, just that simple, don’t lie to yourself that there is a good one and bad one cus there isn’t
@@therealoneisneo I dont know what you are talking about. Just spell this with your children R-E-S-P-E-C-T L-A-W.
@@kapamilyatalks5420 Hi I respect your opinion about the 2016 Arbitral Ruling. But as a Chinese who grew up in mainland China, I must point out that most Chinese believe in some sort of Social Darwinism, and they think that law can be (and will be) controlled by the stronger side of the conflict. So, in the scenario of a true invasion of Taiwan, they will not respect the arbitral ruling but try their best to defeat their so-called American imperialism and its "puppet nations" and establish a new order where the international laws and rules can be bent under their will. I'm not writing this to scare you or someone else, but these are the words that I see on Chinese websites every day. You must have heard about the recent economic depression in China, sadly more and more people are craving a war against foreign nations (either the US or Japan), they believe if they win and establish a new world order, they will be richer and become the supreme race (sound familiar? yup third reich ideology are quite popular in poor Chinese social class). To be honest, the situation in China is getting more and more similar to that of the Japanese Empire before WW2, economic depression, radical nationalism and a dictator who refused to reform.
@@HowardZhang-gm2go I'm sorry, our Chinese circus clown got lost. Turns out he's here.
@@HowardZhang-gm2go I cant see any sense of what you are saying about. It's simple, respect LAW and I know Chinese knows that.
The assumption is that assets in the Philippines won’t take part in the defense of Taiwan. 🇹🇼 with EDCA there are already assets in place in the Philippines 🇵🇭
Even before EDCA, the mutual defense treaty was never rescinded. Any attack on Filipino/American units is an act of war on both. If the US decides to intervene with the invasion of Taiwan, the Philippines would be required to take action. Due to close proximity to Kaohsiung the Philippines will be a staging ground for its defense the evacuation of civillians. Japan and Korea bases will keep the norther part of Taiwan defended.
If you are designing a High Speed Train. You don't have to put the effect of general relativity in your formula, cause it is negligible.
@@pogzie The Philippines would be declaring war on China by acting as a staging ground for the US. The result would be an expansion of the war into the SCS.
ROC, not Taiwan,
other countries will not do anything. or will be ww3.
now we know a specific scenario that for sure will not happen
yo, thats why its unclassified
@@batmanyk This is just for the public to see, you are gullible to believe the government and military authorities will reveal how they think a war between China and US would play out. Just think about it if they do reveal the truth publicly, it would allow China to try to come up with strategies to counter how US thinks. They even admit in the video most of the real war games between China and US are highly classified, so Im willing to bet this specific scenario isnt actually the most likely one.
Of course the new high speed rail has connected Mainland and Taiwan😂
This is obvious just a brief snapshot at a very complex strategic game, but nevertheless surprised by the lack of mention of nuclear weapons. During direct military conflict between two major nuclear powers, it would seem like this a potential outcome that cannot be ignored.
Actually, the use of nuclear weapons by either side is very unlikely in this case, because neither Chinese nor American mainland will be attacked by the other side.
WSJ should've leaned into the game board aspect and included animations or representations of the fighting and casualties. This was way too dry.
Where to buy that board please?
Ali Express 😂
@@stanleyconnor6898 lol
I'm curious about the outcome if the game had not concluded at such an early stage.
As he said by the point the game ended the Chinese naval fleet had been decimated, the remaining troops on the island would be without additional supplies and as soon as food, water, and ammunition run out they would be mopped up. In other words, there was not much left to game out, as soon as China is unable to physically get to the island massive amounts of supplies they've lost.
Long term is only worse for China, as they have to import almost everything they need for their economy to run. Not having a long range navy, they wouldn't be able to keep trade routes open and eventually would run out of essential items like oil. If they don't score a knockout in the first month significant enough to encourage the US and allies to give up, they lose the long game.
In the grand arc of human progress, with advancements that would astound our ancestors, shouldn't we have transcended war by now? Shouldn't each society have the freedom to govern itself? It's a heartbreaking truth that despite our incredible leaps, the specter of conflict still haunts us after millennia of civilization. What if the very threat that unites us is one so immense, no single nation can stand alone? Are we prepared to face that future, divided?
Fear of the other is very strong in some groups. Racism, war, tribalism all these things are interconnected. There is something wrong at the core of 30% of humans which is why war, conflict and other issues can never be resolved. Also there is no and never will be any other threat to us other than ourselves.
Patriotism
i think this war game has just forgot about anti air systems in general
They are showing you garbage. You think they want the enemy to know everything? What about the weapons that we don’t know about? My guess honestly is that they have private A.I running these simulations and not 2 dudes. This is a game of Chess not Checkers and A.I is the best Chess player on the planet.
@@-TheMaskedMan- Bro google gemini just made nazis and george washington black and told a 17 year old that he can‘t be presented c++ code because it could be dangerous for him… Of course A.I. is used but I think a lot of people overestimate what A.I. can do.
Possibility of nukes...
@@ivan55599Always possible, unlikely though. Simply isn't worth escalating for either side as it would ruin the jewel they're fighting over or each other.
Definitely not an accurate representation of military capabilities. Even still, this dumbed down military effort eliminated the Chinese naval forces in 3 weeks.
i remember when wsj said Russia ran out of ammunition 2 years ago a stale mate while Russia occupied 20% of ukrain now this
Russia ran out of ammo. They just bought new ammo from China, Iran and North Korea 😆
Russia hardly needs to import ammunition, they have a very developed military industry@@doom9603
@@doom9603now they not run out of ammo anymore? Does the strategist & analyst doesnt count that factor? Thats fatal.
lots of dumb here. wsj is not saying anything--they are reporting what this group is doing. further, russia had exhausted the majority of its guided ground attack missiles which is incredible. they are making more because they suck so bad at war that its been going on for over two years.
Yet since they started the war they haven’t gain any high volume territory but only a few hundred km, so much for the second strongest military in the world can’t even conquer a country without a navy
Unreal, if supply line is blocked, how can people survived in the island? Without supplies they will lose for sure, you think US is going to air supply eveyday?
US will only watch and do nothing, see Ukraine😂
Those likely scenarios are grossly errored based on the assumption of perfect military communication and supporting communication infrastructure and on the assumption that regional instability will not occur especially including the Korean peninsula. Events can happen simultaneously so that any mutually exclusive scenarios will be more complex and rather be dependent and inclusive scenarios. Once PLA rocket force successfully knock out military communication infrastructure in space, nearly more than half of US-Taiwanese military force will become inoperable further increasing the effectiveness and efficiency PLA military operation toward Taiwan. Whichever the side that preemptively can knock out satellite infrastructure in space wins.
The US has alternatives to satellite based command and control. China also lacks experience and it is likely their own command and control could break down in the field once they start meeting heavy resistance and take heavy losses. Heavy losses on the Chinese side could change Chinese domestic sentiment VERY quickly once families start losing their "little emperors" at a rapid rate. Remember most military aged males in China are only children due to the one child policy. As for Korea, DPRK is in no position to invade anyone, their military is a slave labor force, not an army and ROK's own military should be able to successfully defend South Korea. A malnourished army of slaves using ancient equipment is not going to beat a fully modern and advanced military force. Remember how poorly the Russian military is doing in Ukraine, North Korea's military is an order of magnitude worse.
Russia's EMP concept satellite killers can potentially knockout military use satellites regardless of alternative military satellites orbiting beyond the civilian satellite distance in orbit. Think about satellite blackout for US allies in the region due to Chinese strike on military-use satellites over Indo-pacific region. Economic fallout is catastrophic. Current GDP losses are understated. It takes at least one year to repair damaged satellites and more than a year for new satellites. Any civilian use satellites will be indistinguishable from military use satellites. The economic impact will be horrendous.
@@mrvwbug4423 I agree. I think NK sits back and sells whatever it can to China. Same MO they use with Russia. No serious quantity of NK troops to Ukraine, just arms for money.
If I were a PLA soldier taking part in a planned amphibious landing, the part of this that would give me the most pause would be when he said "and the submarines move back to Japan to reload and more submarines move in." He was understated when he said it, but that translates to a lot of ships at the bottom of the Taiwan straight. I'm hoping that's enough of a deterrent to prevent this whole terrible situation.
I noticed that too. A US Los Angeles-class submarine has 37 torpedoes and that's not even counting the Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles it carries. If it was emptied out and needing resupply, that'll still be a lot of sunk Chinese ships even if only half of them hit. And that's not even the largest active attack submarine class the US has. I actually wouldn't be surprised if there are probably over a dozen NATO attack submarines just waiting off the coast ready to respond just in case China FAFOs attacking Taiwan. 🤣
But the difference is this time war will reach US soil too@@pamirose8612
@@pamirose8612NATO is not even willing to go to war with Russia in Ukraine, in Europe, you think we are willing to go and die at the other side of the world for a island most people can't even find on a map? You have the wrong idea, NATO is not even obliged to go to war for scenarios like Taiwan.
@@toshitsuneomizu1678 What? NATO has been supporting Ukraine since the war began with arms/supplies and Russia is still struggling with their "special military operation" almost 2 years later and that's without a NATO military in country. Taiwan will be a much harder problem for China even without NATO support cause I'm sure other nations that sees China as a threat with all their land-grabbing BS like India (Kashmir), Japan (Senkakus), and all those "9 Dash Line" ASEAN countries would be happy to assist Taiwan against China if they ever do FAFOs. 😂
@@pamirose8612 Why on earhth would the North Atlantic Treaty Organization go to war in the west Pacific??? Was one of their member nations attacked? no. Is there a direct threat to a member country? no. So no reason to go to war and destroy humanity:)
Now they just need mini figures and some dice
Yessir. It would look so cool with little models of the ships and stuff.
US: China will invade Taiwan in the south. China: Are you sure about that?
Landing in the north was gamed out and it failed too often to be considered if they want to succeed.
What exactly was the point of this? What do you think you’ve said here?
@@jb76489 The point is that China landing in the South is a ridiculous scenario. If you read about the details of this war game, the testers never consider other more likely scenarios like a blockade. Also, if China can attack all the Japanese bases (heavily occupied by the US), then why wouldn't they have the capability to first destroy all the Taiwan defenses in the North, with missiles and bombing? This war game doesn't make sense.
@@eng2271 so you’re saying that the war game about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, didn’t consider a scenario where China didn’t invade Taiwan. That’s a really incredible insight you’ve got there, how did you ever manage to figure that out? Next you’ll tell me they didn’t consider a situation where Chile invaded Denmark. You’re conflating “attacking” with “destroying”. You know those are different words, right? Just because you don’t understand something
@@jb76489 Listen to what he says and read the details of the CSIS war game (available on line), the gamers specifically say China DESTROYS massive amounts of US and Japanese planes and assets in Japan in the scenario. That's why the gamers' conclusion is that an invasion would be catastrophic for BOTH sides.
where can I get this board game?
Now I want this board game
I was going to say. this looks hella complicated. But have at it :)
This is a board game advertisement.
The same one that's been around since at least the 70's.
With this scenario, was there any information on how North Korea would react to the invasion of Taiwan? Because if Japan is bombed by China then that would bring in S. Korea in the fight due to pre-existing treaties. Did N.Korea have any impact to this or was it minimal?
China has a few million soldiers, and very easy to boost another 3-9 millions, for that 100 miles distance, China can win the war 3 times in a week. All other data is useless, China already study US military for so many years, it is easier to counter carriers and submarines near China.
Japan will not be bombed by China as long as they stayed away from Taiwan. But South Korea's situation can be tricky because North Korea has defense treaty with PRC. The moment China or North Korea got invaded, they can automatically join the war. If South Korea provided military support to Taiwan, they can be subject to retaliation by North Korea, who can't wait to invade the South. And it'd be hard for China to hold NK on leash.
North Korea is in regime preservation mode, e.g. nuclear program. If China commences hostilities against Taiwan, South Korea goes into full alert, which probably deters North Korea. The question is would China prompt North Korea to take surprise offensive actions of some kind to begin a dilution of Allied forces. I doubt it. I suspect if North Korea is in on the war they start at the same time as China does in an attempt to overwhelm allied forces. Like Russia, this effort could evolve out of extensive military exercises by both countries. Like Russia, that would be the giveaway that the attack is coming. North Korea would be risking its regime while China could not devote itself to their preservation as they did in the Korean War. I think NK looks for arms deals with China to raise revenue. I don't think the NK regime risks losses in a fight with South Korea and US forces there. Deterrence has worked for decades.
This analysis seems pretty flawed to me. It doesn't take into account that North Korea will likely see this as an opportunity to strike South Korea, and maybe Japan, further dividing the US forces.
So how do drones factor in
If anyone is into Turn based strategy games (TBS), they can consider games like 'Battle for Wesnoth' and 'TripleA'. Both have different themes, but the underlying dynamics are similar. :D
you should try Civilization VI
I suggest anyone interested to read about the Allied amphibious assaults on Sicily, Salerno, and D-Day. Then, ask yourself, how would they have gone if the German and Italian defenders had modern satellite reconnaissance that can see the ships loading in their ports, modern radars, and modern anti-ship missiles that can hit ships 100 miles away. I doubt ANY of the WW2 amphibious assaults would have succeeded.
only if the allies are still using WW2 technology.
As a Taiwanese, this is exactly what I think. Also, how do Chinese keep consistent military supply after landing?
@@TPM188 Yes. Important. That is why the Allies brought their own pre-fab harbors -- the Mulberrys Even when a harbor is conquered, it is usually destroyed -- like how the Germans destroyed Antwerp. It took the Allies some time to make it useful. If China is about to get a port, I am sure Taiwan will destroy it as they leave.
@@TPM188 Not to worry, though. I doubt China's ships will get close enough to land troops. Also, they are MOST vulnerable when disembarking troops. AND - I am sure Taiwan has made EVERY landing beach into a killing zone. One thing is obvious -- Taiwanese are NOT stupid.
@@TPM188 Always wanted to ask a Taiwanese --- What do you think of Biden's move making a Taiwanese women our Trade Representative to China??? That move cracked me up.
What is CSIS?
Where do I buy that game lol?
Doubt anyone would be a quote winner in any Taiwan invasion scenario. PS - Bigger question regardless of ending would be the aftermath of the war. Questions like: - Would USA quit trading with China for the next 20 years? - Would US mine Chines ports? - Would invasion cause a brain drain from Taiwan? - Would China quit importing from USA? - What would Japan do if their mainland was attacked? - Would China use fishing fleet to send men and material across straight? - Would South Korea sell arms like drones to Taiwan?
Would riots and cities burn here in the U.S. due to drafts Would we be able to help Ukraine, push back Iran attacking our bases in the middle east. Would our economy crash due to part shortages, and no chips from Taiwan. Think a few years back supply chain issues, and put a stop on all products. Would you be able to fix your car, or afford gas. Could the dollar cash too. What about attacks here in the U.S.
@@TheBuckeyeFarm next 20 years? only need 3 years, business back to normal, since you can't undo, what's for to hong on there for another 17 years?
Would US enter the war?
- China would fracture politically and possibly geographically and new leaders would be needing (and would) focus their concerns internally to shore up support and rehabilitate their political and economic control - The USA is already in the process of on-shoring, near-shoring, and friend-shoring aka exiting China that would only continue while some trading would continue - In order for China to have any chance of victory it would need to cut off outside aid which means they would need to attack about 5-10 additional nations simultaneously in addition to Taiwan (the same as Japan tried to blitz over all of their neighbors to secure critical war supplies) which they don't have the capability to pull off successfully either, but if they did all of those nations would respond in kind, and that includes Japan. - Taiwan would be damaged but there would be a lot of money to be made in the reconstruction so no one would be going anywhere as Taiwan would remain/return to being a safe democratic country in very short order - China would attempt to use anything that floats because it doesn't have enough airlift or sealift capacity and the million man swim would lead to a lot of casualties - South Korea is gearing up to be a major force on the international arms market and they would have no issue selling to friendly nations like Taiwan
@@msytdc1577 stop throwing around opinions as if they were well-informed insights. Everything you said doesn't make the slightest sense. Where did you get that the US nearshoring is actually working? Research how the same thing happened with the sanctions on Russia, with European countries increasing their exports to Kyrgyzstan,Georgia and Azerbaijan by 2000% since the war in Ukraine began. The same happened with the US and the miraculous increase in its imports from Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia. China continues to sell to the USA in the same way, in the same way that Europeans continue to export goods to the Russians. And the USA, despite all its efforts, is not managing to reindustrialize. Biden's push to bring semiconductor factories back to America has failed resoundingly. And this argument that China will fracture geographically is exactly the same argument I heard when Russia invaded Ukraine and what happened? Russia is more united than ever. You, like other naive people, know nothing about the determination of these people, you think that they are artificial countries, that they are held together by some kind of tyranny that makes people who hate each other stay as one country but who wait for any opportunity to become 50 countries like the Balkans. Stop thinking that the whole world is the Balkans. China also has allies. Although you are delusional and know nothing about it. Anyone who thinks that China would fight alone does not understand Chinese influence over Myanmar, Thailand, North Korea, Pakistan and most likely Russia, which would directly help China. And South Korea would be the first country to be crushed in that war with North Korean artillery capabilities. These war scenarios are child's play, and totally unrealistic. Anyone who knows the basics of the subject knows that it would be impossible for American nuclear submarines to enter the Taiwan Strait, firstly that the strait is only 50 meters deep at its deepest point, and therefore any nuclear submarine would be visible to the naked eye from helicopters and to planes. And secondly, the entire strait would be blocked by sensors and anti-submarine mines. This war would be completely catastrophic, and it would involve several other Asian nations. Thinking that all of Asia would unite against China is an American delusion that will be crushed by the complexity of reality. This would not be a localized war, as these stupid wargames think. This would be WWII. The whole world would join this war. Good luck getting Africa to fight alongside the US in this war. Good luck making Latin America fight alongside the US in this war. Good luck getting the Arabs to support the US in this war. Wake up and see the reality, how many countries supported the sanctions on Russia? The entire Global South have supported Russia. Do you really think the Global South would miss this unique opportunity to resolve its differences with the West if the mother of all wars occurred? Think again, no one would have anything to lose, it would be humanity's final war and we would all be finished.
I am not a military strategist or analyst whatsoever. The US also has bases in the Philippines. Not only the Chinese attacking US bases in Japan but the Chinese also has to attack the bases in the Philippines. If the amphibious forces of the Chinese landed in southern Taiwan, those forces would likely be hit by US missiles from the northern Philippines. Unless the Chinese cripple the entire bases in both Japan and the Philippines they might have a chance of landing forces into the island. but this whole invasion is very complex but not impossible. both sides will suffer huge casualties but more on the Chinese side/
A fool trying to be a military analyst, what a laughing stock
LOL YOU THINK THEY WON'T USE NUCLEAR DRONES?
@@icet6665 I’m not sure if the PRC wants to get nuked over territory expansion. All the US and Taiwan have to do is make any invasion scenario massively unpleasant. Any invasion would hurt both economies, and the US currently has the PRC outmatched in terms of military capability. As long as the US and Taiwan can keep launching anti ship cruise missiles and control the sky, they win any conventional war.
Found the commie, you'll never win@@yaoliang1580
@@yaoliang1580no they're pretty spot on
Does anyone know where I can buy this game?
Where can I buy this game?!
Ebay😅
So why was my comment about an EMP first strike deleted??
youre advocating nukes now
@@evanfinch4987 How did a comment become an advocacy? I was merely pointing out (in the deleted post) why surprise EMPs were never considered in their war games.
I want to play this game so badly.
Join the military and you might become an actual player
Lies again? Chevrolet Higher Chinese
There's a full pdf report and a few videos of the game. I think it's published somewhere as it's open source.
the game looks badass!!
Just as a video game haha Just as a video game, right?
3:00 submarine in the strait? That area is shallow water!
it’s not like they just sent once troops to taiwan and leave it there. they just gonna send more troops
What about the scenario concerning the bashi channel where ph is fortifying the defences and for sure will be use for resupply, and we can see the effects of this move where china continue to harass ph, a move which is wrong, for it will only drift ph closer to us. For sure jp and ph will be drag in this war, which china with a wrong move returns no gain for them.
Dont play with fire. PH & Jap are non nuke countries. If its get nuked by china, i wont bet US will nuking china back. Since US also will get nuked also if do so. Ask US, would they throw nuke for PH or Jap?
China would have to take Penghu first, and it's the most fortified place on Earth with 60,000 well-supplied and well-entrenched infantry.
Whatever the "first" move is. It'll have to be completely out of the box and a totally shocking surprise not represented by this board game. Therefore Taiwan must get serious about arming their citizens like Switzerland.
Where would you put that many soldiers? Those islands are not very big.
@@eitkoml probably on paper, you can put unlimited amt of soldiers on paper, like wallstreetbet's paper trading
@@davebauman4991 The shocking surprise is called flight.
They're not called infantry, they're called thermal pixels
What was the movie name at the beginning of this video
I hope the combat is more complicated than counting up the attacking points of the attacker and then comparing them to the defending points and consulting a table with stuff like 3:1, 2:1, 1:1 etc etc. Roll of dice "oh look I lose half strength and have to move back one hex."
Where i can get this board game?
you mean the same war game simulations that US and NATO did for the Ukraine war 😂
kind of different. Since land connects Russia and Ukraine, Russia's strategic maneuvering isn't as predictable. If you're trying to take an island, there are only so many ways you can approach it...
Ukraine’s has has 6 years and tbh only 3 true years to prepare for conflict with Russia and it shares a massive land border with breakaway oblasts in its own country. The true Republic of China in Taiwan has had 75 years to prepare and the 20th best economy in the world as well as being an important island nation. China is also surrounded by countries that hate or fear its power. Vietnam is an interesting one to research
China : WRITE THAT DOWN WRITE THAT DOWN! Someone had to say it.
How does game decide who loses how many troops etc?
Percentages and odds, whos attacking what, and the terrain with what support
Russia said to China, we will do it first, then you do it after us.
Slava 🇹🇼 Heroyam TAIWANese 🦾
Remember, there’s a lot more to take into consideration rather than a conflict. Since there is also consideration like economics, morale, and most importantly political incentives.
Plenty noncombat aggression they can do like trade wars, culture wars, sabotage, etc.
True. China should have passed the two child policy instead of the one child policy. That would have prevented a lot of problems from occurring.
I like that they magically forgot North Korea exists.
@@eitkoml2 child started long time ago beside they wouldnt be like what they are today if not for 1 child policy now its 3 or 4 someth
and currently the CCP is seeing foreign investment disappear, a property market crash, youth unemployment, there was a banking issue last year, etc.
I can not think of a worse way to structure this video. A dreadful watch.
The CSIS cover for "The First Battle of the Next War" tells you all we need to know about their state of preparedness and readiness using tanks as shore artillery defense. I also hope they understand Chinese war planners have also studied it cover to cover and will likely do the exact opposite of the CSIS's prediction or will follow it closely to make defending forces think they knows what is happening then China immediately changes their tactics.
The Philippines 🇵🇭 and US 🇺🇸 forces are stationed on Batanes Islands controlling the Bashir channel, making Chinese blockade surround Taiwan and landing on the beaches tasks impossible.
Source ? Proof ?
@JonySmith-bb4gx are you serious?
You keep lying every day, lastchang
@@JonySmith-bb4gx Going around to spread Chinese lies, uh?
@@AhmetTekin101You must be blind 💀 Bro didn't even say anything.
Many words about airplanes and ships. But what about missiles?
What stops China from building artificial islands east of Taiwan?
No way the Chinese try to take Japan as well !
Where can I buy the game?
I think it’s free if you go to your local recruitment center!
@@mikegate6764I can't imagine him coming back to this comment section years later and saying "got it :]"
Does the game include a second war on the Korean Peninsula? It’s very likely
Back in high school (many decades ago), we tried to play a very complex board game with lots cardboard tiles. We never did get far into the game. Besides using national resources to raise units, we also had to designate certain cities a logistic hubs (and only cities above a certain size can be designated as such), we also had to create supply depots along the line of advancement and leave troops to garrison it. Besides supply point, you also had foraging point for certain areas. If you are not careful, your army can disintergrate from starvation. Even if you are careful, if you try to go too deep into enemy territory, and to keep your troops fed, your 100,000 men army may be down to 60,000 troops at a battle just from troops loss assigned to guard your supply depots.
Where can we buy that boardgame? so I'll play that one when I'm bored and I'm alone
Don't forget the Philippines contributions. Allowing US bases into increasing strategic sites.
China 0 wars USA constant wars
You seem pretty chill with a country that tried to genocide you 100 years ago (really, I am not misusing the word)
Next thing you know those base gets bombed to oblivion, US forces falls back to Hawaii, Chinese forces move in and now you have forever PLA presence in Philippines, lol
@vlhc4642 and this is when world War three starts...
cannon fodder
I've served at the Pentagon and have served as a military war game developer and playtester for dozens of titles. One, in particular, for those who are interested, is Decision Games' Red Dragon/Green Crescent, which posits an aggressive China and Iran. Having playtested this title a number of time, sadly Taiwan never fares well.
The usual cities in rubble scenario?
Bro, I didn’t know that we were deciding what wars to conduct with warhammer.
Curious as to what the U.S. and Japanese losses were regarding military, civilian, aircraft, and ships.
Although it's a good to get a rough idea on what a potential conflict might look like, I was a little skeptical about two things for this wargame: 1. the effectiveness of air mobile battalions getting the initial landing. If the Ukraine was has shown us anything, air defense saturation makes successful airborne operations near impossible to pull off unless there's a serious element of surprise. 2. I was surprised the Chinese were able to perform a successful amphibious landing in the first place considering the 100 mile distance between the strait would a.) allow the defenders with ISR assets to get a rough idea of where they would land well before it actually happened and set up shore based defenses/anti ship defenses to counter and b.) severely strain Chinese logistics (especially with U.S. subs raiding logistics convoys.) My assumption is they had some conditions for the wargame where Taiwan and the U.S. were completely taken by surprise allowing the naval landing to occur. I really wish they had a video of the full wargame so we could see the conditions, scope, and lead up to the game.
Yeah they kinda glossed over the landing itself. I'm guessing part of the scenario was an assumption of a successful landing in order to be able to game out the land operations. In reality Taiwan and the US would likely have weeks of warning because of how large of a buildup China would have to do before they could launch their invasion. It would be like the lead up to the Ukraine invasion, where the US clearly saw it coming weeks in advance. The PLA would suffer greatly to get that landing, and it's not guaranteed at all that they would get it.
@@hydra70 Yep, Taiwan and the U.S. would have plenty of advance warning if China decides to invade. I wonder if Taiwan has any naval drones like Ukraine. Probably so.
CIV 7 looks great!
In non-digital form.
99.999999% sure this scenario will never happen.
Not a single "war expert" in history has ever gotten anything right.
False
Hate to say this but this simulation significantly underplays casualties the attackers typically takes in an urban amphibious assault. 1 battalion just won’t make it.
Should have included the EDCA Bases too. Remember the Philippines and United States has Mutual Defense Treaty. An attack on one is attack on both. This is a handicapped game.😂
You'll realize the actual implications after America loses and signs ceasefire with China, but China refuse to sign one with you.
Yes, in some ways it was. But that is intentional as while this video showed one scenario when they do these war games they are plural, multiple scenarios are played out with various handicaps imposed on both sides in different games, the one represented in the video was just the most likely one. Another game could start out where the US gets super unlucky and loses 3 carriers in the first week (imposed by the scenario, not due to being the result of calculations, i.e. it is not an expected event), or where China is able to attack in a surprise move instead of human, signals, and technical intelligence giving away the build up weeks and months in advance, etc. This is done as the point of doing war games is to find where you are weak to improve, and to find where the opponent is weak to focus your efforts there in an actual conflict.
Minor factor.
This is not how wars are fought.
Under what legal grounds would the USA intervene in this conflict? Do they have a defence pact with Taiwan?
To protect the US’s strategic interests
@@zachb1706 just like Russia defends its strategic interests in Ukraine, right?
@@snowsnow4231 it is in Putin’s interests to control Ukraine
Someone make it into a mod for Civ6 please.