MWI War Council: The War in Ukraine - An Operational Assessment
2024 ж. 16 Мам.
160 539 Рет қаралды
Last week, Russian forces invaded Ukraine and triggered the largest military conflict Europe has seen in eighty years. How did it happen, and what is likely to come next? The Modern War Institute at West Point hosted a multidisciplinary panel to provide an operational assessment of the current state and future projections of the war in Ukraine. The virtual panel features Dr. Rob Person from West Point's Department of Social Sciences, retired Colonel Liam Collins, PhD, who helped reform Ukraine’s defense establishment from 2016 to 2018, and Mr. Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses.
I never thought I would enjoy content like this but this past week has made me absolutely fascinated with all of this information. Thank you so much this has been amazing to watch and listen to
same
This conflict is mesmerizing. I’ve looked into Chechnya too. Wow. Having been in conflicts helps me better imagine what it’s like there.
If you like this then you’d probably love the KZhead channel “the operation room” he does animated breakdown of a sky view on wars and conflicts, my favorite is his breakdown on how the US and it’s Allie’s liberated Kuwait from iraqs invasion, it breaks down the whole ware and how we won it in a few days His videos are cool because it shows troop positions and movements on a sky view map
This channel and others like it have some *amazing* lectures!
@Simon Andrews the Jeep was in both World Wars! Know your history 😉
Interesting to watch this more than a month after the fact. I’d love to see another panel like this given how the past month has gone.
Michael Kofma. Has given more recent interviews that haven't shown a huge change in his opinion.
Very well done presenting the issue(s), enjoyed the round table discussion!
Dr Person undersells himself. He gave a fantastic presentation.
Thank you. I have enjoyed this panel a lot. Your analysis is very in depth and to the point.
I was really impressed by the level of professionalism and professional knowledge on display. Truly excellent
I Know right professionals acting professional blows my mind. 🤣🤦🏽♂️
I’ve been binge watching each and every videos with information with Ukrainian invasion topic. I love panel discussions like this. It’s not simplistic or sometimes partisan like the ones in mainstream media. VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATION especially were living in a time which is a big chapter in history.
Thank you , so great to have such access
Love this content, keep it coming, please!
Thanks for this. Extremely interesting and hope you do a weekly panel on this. I know you are all busy. But this really matters in terms of educating the global public.
Thank you. Very interesting!
Kudos to the moderator ending a question (about the 35-40min mark) with "Over".
Thank you. I have enjoyed this panel a lot. Your analysis is very in depth and on point. As a Ukrainian I can agree with most of the points presented by the speakers.
Thank you for uploading and sharing.
Good job, Liam. And you too, Michael-but your insights are always good.
Can we appreciate the guy in the bottom right has a painting of Captain Picard as a Napoleonic era officer?
I think you mean left 😀
@@joshualettink7582 the other right
Almost! It's Patrick Stewart as Gurney Halleck in Dune.
@@fortinbras47 I think it's just one of those memes that have been popular last decade of pasting some political figure head onto some napoleonic officer portrait. Usually napoleon him self, people do it to figures they like such as putin, trump or just some celebs.
@@fortinbras47 I see you are a man of culture as well ;)
Really good insights! Thanks guys! :)
Wow! I could write more but these intelligent people speak for themselves. Thanks for positing for the rest of us.
This was quality!
Can you guys host a follow-up to this discussion??
Well told. Thank you.
This is terrific.
Excellent panel! Thank you for sharing with the rest of us. I'd watch every bit of content you guys can produce on modern warfare and IR.
IR😮
amazing, super informative
great panel! well done!
This was a very interesting discussion!
Man, this was great!
At 1:08, he hits the MAJOR issue, which isn’t NATO expansion. The major issue is that Putin made no assurances or partnerships with Baltics States! This essentially pushed those states to cling to NATO as a hedge against Putin’s tyranny.
Historically, an assurance from a Russian head of state to a Baltic one were worth considerably less than the saliva required to utter them.
@@katarishigusimokirochepona6611 lol. He has 25-years to rebuild relations with Baltic States, and chose his own financial interest instead.
Anyone that has been recipient of Russian/Soviet aggression looks for defense alliances/strong defense militaries unless they are total fools.
superb analysis 24:00-36:00
How does this only have 1k views?
Modern War Institute, I find your aspect ratio alarming but you have been a fountain of valuable information for this conflict, thank you. o7
_Alarming?_
Incredible analysis! Thank you!
You really needs to get them together again for a new updated analysis!
First time I hear Michael Kofman that negative about a prediction, in this case Russia: a more powerful Iran. The Russian state did indeed paint itself in a corner. Thanks for the content. Very good analysis.
Putin is in a big mess! I hope Ukraine can hold out until he loses.
Russia a more powerful Iran, imagine Russia Iran as allies lest not forget China and now India. If we are talking about weaknesses lest remember Irak war 20 years there and the US NATO using 670 thousand and couldn't dominate it
@@JeepCherokeeful that's just one more wishful thinking.
@@JeepCherokeeful the US is in a big mess. The US had lived in a crisis like what they are living before the crisis in the US is more worrying than that in Vietnam, and no American soldiers dead yet. Don't mess with Russia because Russi has nukes destroy the US
@@donone1493 India cooperates with Russia to develop weapons, but it also has very friendly relations with the West. If Russia and NATO went to war, India would most likely be neutral. If China joined Russia, then India would probably join the Western side just to have an excuse to fight China. They loathe each other. Iran is mostly irrelevant and can be held in check by Israel and/or the Saudis. Your numbers are way off for the Iraq war. The coalition had under a half million total personnel (including support personnel), and the US and Britain (primarily) only used about 200,000 troops in the actual invasion. They took Baghdad in 3 weeks and the whole country in just over a month. Iraq had over a million soldiers and more tanks than the coalition. The only area where the coalition outnumbered it was in air and sea assets. And the US/British coalition steamrolled the Iraqi army, just like we’d do to the Russian army. It’s only in the peacekeeping mission after Saddam was removed that we had some struggles. But Russia knows all too well how difficult it is to occupy a country, and is about to be reminded in Ukraine.
Thanks
Center for Strategic and International Studies also does a FANTASTIC panel discussion on the war. Great accompaniment to the points brought up. One thing I would say is the military's future warfare researchers ought to be at a growing glut of data points for fast-tracking MDO development. It's cynical, it's sad, but now's the time to do it.
L
Nice to see an objective take on this from people who know what they're talking about.
This is not an objective take. It is NATO propaganda. Experts become and stay experts by parroting the party line. That's how it works everywhere. Interesting discussion though.
Thank you for the knowledge and expertise without any political slant.
Political science being bad at predictions somewhat deprecates it as a science.
Closing Remarks: Having a powerful military and being able to feed and supply a powerful military are two different things
Also, numbers don't equal strength. All their kit is shit.
Amateurs talk Tactics, Professionals talk Logistics...
A army march on its stomach and all that.
@@RobertNaik This is particularly true if it's an army of Snails
a revision of the panel after a year would be a good follow up
Excellent
Great convo! But I will say that I wish Michael would provide some quick sources for his claims.
Brilliant, comprehensive analysis.
Riveting conversation. Especially the 36:28 "jean luc Picard" vs "Ranger pistols" background. Important stuff. Oh yeah. And the input on the war, i suppose.
44:45 if Putin had tried this in 2014 the politics might have been a lot more achievable. The Kremlin doesn't seem to have processed how much Ukraine changed post annexation and with the election of the current President.
Agreed. There was almost no personnel change in Kremlin administration since 2014, so that may be a reason.
They were fooled by their own propaganda.
Putin FSB Intelligence lacking in every sense then.
Exactly - Mi-28N (Nowhere to be seen) , Lancet Loitering Drones, Su-34 Not to mention standoff distance Rocket Artillery BM-30
I did wonder why there were no Mi-28's or the BM-30.
@@AXStryker: because they’re 5th gen kit attached to the 1st guards army. Which are ready and waiting for someone dumb enough to start ww3. Ukraines sacrificed 1/3 of their country to destroy barely 10% of Russian outdated equipment that needed modernising anyway. At current rates Russia will lose 40% of their forces. But still be a world power and now have twice the population and resources. Making them even more of a Porcupine for Europe to try and bully. Food wars are coming. Oil is about to become scarce. Gas is about to become scarce. Fertiliser is about to become scarce. Grain is about to become scarce. Crops are going to reduce. Herds are going to be cut. Power is going to be reduced. Russia’s just turtled and left the world with a economic hand grenade
We need a follow up video on this pls
Digital name tags would be welcome to ID participants and perhaps follow up on social media.
Thank you all!
Why wasn’t the southern UKR coast provided and set up with anti ship missile systems such as Harpoon or Exocet?
Include Rob Lee Next time aswell Thanks.
Its always hidden forces that will make a decisive action that could turn the tide of the conflict
bottom left is a great analyst. more of him. 1:04:05. brief summary of Ruthenia. the mongols came and the archbishop of Novgorod, princess of Muscovy, Tver, and prem, all payed tribute and became independent vassals carved out of ruthenia. places like Ukraine and Georgia stook their ground and were wrecked hard by constant mongol raids. roughly 20k a year were apparently hauled off to slavery in Crimea Khanate to the ottoman empire and Egypt. The start of Ukraine as it's own started around 1250.
It’s nice to find out there are still actual adults discussing things in at least some academic institutions.
Am I seeing things or is that a portrait of Jean-Luc Picard behind Mr. Kofman?
#1 you are right. #2 you are seeing things, also.
Very cool to see a educated military.., good on the US for educating your solders n sailors..👍
Is being educated to kill and support the military-industrial complex (which takes 54% of your tax dollars) real education? It is certainly not productive education with it's massively negative ROI.
Extremely interesting analysis. And, also, yes; *Jean Luc Picard is the best Star Trek captain.* 🚀
Nope. James T Kirk
@@DeltaAssaultGaming Incorrect!
Interesting channel
It's not that Russia is stuck in 2014 and doesn't understand Ukraine today. It's that they don't care. And that should tell you everything you need to know about what Russia intends to do.
10 days later and Russian operations are still stalled. Seems to be mostly due to logistics issues. Ukrainian local defense forces are targeting trucks and by this point the Russian military is using civilian vehicles for logistics and troop movement. I think this level of logistical incompetence has been shocking to analysts everywhere and I’d love to see another panel focus on the logistics.
Take in fewer western/UKR sources.
@@dancooper4733 Indeed, ten days later and Russia is doing worse.
@@teo2975 Russia is winning
@@dancooper4733 🤡🤡🤡
@@teo2975 *this aged well*
finished the stream, now i'm glowing in the dark, how do i make it stop?
LOL!!!
My impression is that the Russian Army is surprisingly road-bound. Naturally, I don't have access to enough unbiased intel to be sure. If true, would that be because of mud, the vast size of the operational area or something else?
I think that by pouring so much combat power into the theatre , they have exceeded the capacity of the battlefield, greatly simplified, they are going to mask each others fires (if a real toe to fight ensues), make it more difficult to maneuver and further complicate Cmd/control
Rob Person speaking from the Black Lodge?
Very good! :)
lol I had to do a doubble take, but yes that is captain Picard of the starship enterprise.
I'm from Russia. Note on prices of goods at 14:30. Yeah, 50%, 100%, and more prices rises on everything. Including food and medicine. That is IF they are still for sale which many are not. Suppose limiting food exports will support domestic market
How do we intend to win the peace?
What is the name of the man that we should follow on Twitter? Michael?
Donald
When he said that Putin would eventually get out of the political scene either Vertically or Horizontally, by horizontally he meant dead? 😉
Amazing presentation, thank you. Question. I know on paper that Ukraine has 900,000 in reservists. How many have been called up so far? How many have been deployed? And how long would it take for various numbers of reservists to be called up, equipped, and trained up for the front. I know places like Switzerland or Israel have a 72 hour turnaround time. I've been trying to find any information on this, but number or analysis has been hard to find. And it seems to me with current intelligence reports indicating that Russia has fully deployed 100% of their combat strength that Russia's overall combat effectiveness is going to start to degrade from here on in. So Russia seems to be having a very hard time supplying their troops and this is to say nothing about how exhausted their forces are likely to be since it seems like none of the units have been rotated out to rest. Theoretically Ukraine is replenishing its combat strength with fresh forces with a high moral.
No it’s 100% of prestaged forces (150,000 men) of which over 50,000 men are reservists. There’s also 20,000 LPR. 30,000 DPR, 10,000 Chechens 10,000 police forces. (Which gives Russia another 180,000 men ) Russia’s main fighting force. The first guards tank army is still around Moscow protecting from the NATO Baltic army group (85,000 men) The Russians Expeditionary Forces are still in Syria (13,000 men) Which would give Russia the ability to throw another 80,000 men at the problem along with another 150,000 reserves. For policing and humanitarian. You have to remember. Ukraine is claiming 4-700 tanks destroyed. Russia has 12,400 tanks. They’ve killed less then 10% of Russia’s oldest kit and had to sacrifice a 1/3 of their country to do so. So no. Russia hasn’t gone full send yet. And the answer is Ukraine can’t Train Reserves sufficiently. 130,000/221,000Ukrainians are now in cauldron’s in east Ukraine. Another 5,000 dead. 17,000 wounded. Meaning they only have 81,000 troops left. We know at least 3 divisions are in south ukraine stopping Russia reaching Odessa and cutting off their last port. A further 4 are in the north holding the russian advance to Kyiv. Which leave 10,000 men. To train, do logistics, security etc for the rest of Kyiv. The same 10,000 that could possibly train other Ukrainians to a sufficient standard. Training soldiers takes large quantities of time. Resources, vehicles. Range packages. A minimum of 8 weeks for infantry. So a month and a half. Before you consider the setbacks of having every single one of their Airbases, camps, bases and headquarters destroyed un the initial bombardment. The inability to recruit 1/3 of Ukraines population due to them already being behind Russian lines. The lack of power, infrastructure, food and water to supply lots of forces in a area. The lack of air superiority to protect a base for large training teams. The U.K. currently has the ability to train 8,000 soldiers every 14 weeks. For Ukraine it will likely take the same period for reservists. Russia will likely lose 5,000 tanks by the end of the war. 10,000 vehicles. 1,000 aircraft. Ukraine will lose their country. And Russia will still be a world power. This war is just trying to throw people in the way of a unstoppable force. Reservists, volunteers and mercenaries can’t save them now. It’s only prolonging bloodshed and virtue signalling.
Russia will nuke them with small tactile devices, sub-Hiroshima, if they see that victory gets difficult. Imo wold've made sense to start with nuke threats straight away, which most likely would've lead to capitulation in the first days, after first strike in an unpopulated city let's say.
@@jugganaut33 thank you for a detailed and rational response. It's a breath of fresh air, considering that every media outlet would have us believe that any mathematical reality can be overcome by emotions and wishful thinking alone. Good stuff. I'm looking forward to watching the media meltdown as reality sets in.
@@jugganaut33 You're delusional if you think Ukraine only has 221,000 available troops after they've had the entire west of the country untouched to train reserves and volunteers with foreign assistance. And you're straight stupid to think Russia would redeploy their entire army into a single region. Sacrificing land is nothing, Russians have barely driven over 1/3 of the roads in the countryside since their tires burst in the mud 😆🤣😂 and you're assuming all their vehicles work. Russia has to occupy the cities quickly or Putin is kaput, and moving 5km a day ain't it
@@steveoc64 LOL Lomax as obviously never been in any military. the core of his claim is that it takes 8-14 weeks to train and then bizarrely puts both Ukrainian reservists and British trainees who have never seen a rifle in that same "training period." Ukraine has 925,000 reserve ALL of whom have already been trained as infantry, and most trained in urban combat. reserves get yearly exercises. You may get less fit a few decades after initial training, but you don't forget basic infantry or how to handle a rifle.
Interesting
Why are most comments directed at how great the panel is! Sounds like they wrote them themselves. Weird
Actually the petrodollar has nobbled the US, India buying Russian oil in rupees, Saudi selling oil in Yuan has split the world so that there is now an alternative banking system.
that's my prediction. The sanctions will hurt the rest of the world before Russia and the west. Poverty in the non-western world will force a geo-political split. They will want an end to sanctions against Russia. Essentially sanctions are the west declaring economic war on the entire non-western world. I'm expecting some sort of destabilizing of the American dollar in the near future. A demand to pay back loans, moving off the American dollar for payments. I only hope this ends soon.
@@harryflashman4542 The US is willing to fight to the last drop of Ukrainian blood to take down the EU. The US is also willing to create famines in Africa too. kzhead.info/sun/pq-bZ7SlsYecdac/bejne.html&ab_channel=CGTN
Do you think Russia is keeping its airpower in reserve for some future direct Russia-vs-NATO conflict?
No😂if they try anything with NATO, their air force will cease to exist.
no. over half is not even flyable
Fascinating question. Agree. Possibility exists that Russia's corruption has hollowed out the military. That pocketing of money trickles down.. And or they are simply behind, technologically
I suppose the argument about "having to" lead an insurgency doesn't apply to Iran's operations in Iraq.
I'm sorry, but is that a framed portrait of Captain Picard in a 19th-century dress uniform in the lower left? 😂
I think it's Gurney Halleck from the '80s Dune movie.
I thought the same, but its actually Patrick Steward playing Halleck in Dune (1984) ;)
@@lockelamora8099 Same guy
Engineer is like fuck your ranger moto, I'm listening to the dude with Jean Luc Picard on the wall!!!!
Kofmann, i almost missed this clip. Lets see what he has to say about this war.
Oh man... complete dissapointment.
@@janezjonsa3165 Oh man, no one cares
Great educational discussion! My concern is that Russian power will be so degraded China may use country like Pakistan to take over Russian territories. Degraded Russia is fine but who will fill that the power vacuum.
Pakistan and Russia are hundreds of miles away
Obviously this war is terrible for Russia. So maybe it’s all as simple as Putin being a 69 year old man looking for a legacy. The oligarchs took most of the money that should have been used to build the army and other countries have over estimated Russian military capacity because they have been told by there own weapons manufacturers that they need to invest more. Anyway this was all very interesting and the guests were all brilliant.
Bot posts in this comment section. I have followed this channel for some time and these panels do not normally get nearly this many views. Very questionable.
Great video. But moderator, please please please work on limiting your “uh”s and “you know”s.
Will Russia ever have an economy big enough to replace the SU34s and other frontline hardware lost in theater? 6 SU34s shot down means there are only around 30 left in the world.
RF had 131 operational aircraft in inventory as of December 2021.
@@vonravik2012 You are right there were many more SU34 made. I think I was thinking about Mig29ks.
That's a good looking strike eagalskie
Lol. There’s 131 Su34’s There’s 284 SU25’s 280 Mi24’s 160 Mi28’s 127 Ka52’s So… no Russia isn’t running out of aircraft. 67/1000 attack aircraft isn’t even a dent in Russian airpower.
@@jugganaut33 You really think that all those aircraft are flyable? Yes I did make a mistake but the reality is their tech is junk and their system of government amounts to the organization of a mob crime family. 40 percent graft means not even half of those planes are probably airworthy.
Lol best part one guy gives an answer with a bit of a question mark, then says “over?”
Kofman sounds like Hikaru Nakamura
36:28 The host mocks the guy on the bottom left for being an arm chair general :D
Interesting to see several of the top experts, including Collins in this talk, now noting that the massive blunting of the initial Russian invasion was accomplished by ordinary citizens forming informal militias with their own iron sight AKs. This is what shocked the Russia and non-Russian analysts the most and what forced Russia to change its entire strategy into one they had not prepared for
Lol. The Russian invasion has been blunted by the regular army using anti tank weapons and air defense against an overconfident Russian police operation that assumed they could take East Ukraine in 100 hours
Captain Picard making an appearance.
Why does the dude in the bottom left have an oil painting of Jean-Luc Picard Captain of the USS Enterprise in a 19th century military Dress uniform?
This video aged well
I agree with Masha Gessen. Sanctions will not change Putins behaviour. He does not care about his people suffering. If we use sanctions it is for moral reasons which are important in my mind. His money reserves he has access to will sustain his army for a long time. I think the world must engage him on the ground in Ukraine unfortunately
Masha Gessen has a very bad record of predictions. She isn't an economist and certainly is not informed on military issues whatsoever. The Russians in general and Putin and particular will be deeply harmed by sanctions long term. It is a strawman to set up sanctions as something that must work in days. They will in fact see putin destroyed but it will probably take a year. There is no support in the major NATO countries to engage russia on the ground in Ukraine. Best to slowly strangle the beast.
Russia has an internal economy, the external value of the ruble won't matter to the average Russian.
Then I’ll show u what Michael Coffman said BEFORE the war. And compare the 2
Is that a painting of Picard???
Part 2 when? Regards, over.
40:06 - " ICC is purely ceremonial" sounds like a preemptive apology for not acting. Was Nuremberg 'purely ceremonial'? Is the Hague a 'ceremonial city'? Is the EU a 'ceremonial institution'? Was the Cold War a 'ceremonial half century'? Is the USA a 'ceremonial constitution'? The mind boggles.
Slava 🇺🇦!
1:18:00 - AI. Clear that The Kremlin don't have 'it' but are still trying to cause an escalation to capture and harness. Which is where attrition and Ukrainian pressure /demands for kit could pay off (Med to PRC-term strategic)
Algorithm.
The Ukrainians have been keeping quiet about what their heavy units have been doing. Lots of videos of light forces, civilians and drones. How well have the heavy units been doing?
Probably getting shredded in the initial assaults. Although I’m not sure where their armor was
Probably staging in the west with troops for a breakthrough at Kiev (when it's needed), a thrust through Dnipro to relieve Mariupol/any eastern encirclement, or reserve if Russia moves for Odessa. My gut tells me Mariupol is a necessary sacrifice until Russia forces are thinned out enough to allow a counter-attack somewhere
Why aren't the railway lines in Belarus and Russia being attacked? They are important to Russian supply lines.