The Causes of the War between Hamas and Israel
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On October 7, 2023, Hamas initiated an offensive against Israel in a manner unseen for a half century. This video goes deep into the broader source of the conflict. Unlike traditional explanations, it highlights bargaining frictions as a key cause. It is not sufficient to simply point to the substantive issues in dispute between Hamas and Israel. As long as war is costly, both sides should prefer avoiding a war in principle. Thus, we must explain the conflict using bargaining frictions: first strike advantages, long-term shifts in the balance of power, uncertainty over the outcome of war, or leader biases.
Hope you like some lines on maps, because there is going to be a heavy dose of them today!
0:00 Hamas and Israel at War
2:25 The Substantive Conflict
5:53 War's Inefficiency Puzzle
10:37 First Strike Advantages and Preemptive War
13:04 Power Shifts, Preventive War, and Saudi Arabia
16:13 Information Problems and Turbulent Israeli Politics
17:36 Leader Benefits and Violence as Advertisement
19:02 Which One Caused the War?
20:40 Can You Get KFC in Gaza?
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"As someone who at least pretends to be a respectable social-scientist, it is way too earlier for an answer." - and that, is why I like this channel. There's no crime in saying that it's impossible to know everything, especially as its happening. Yet, so many others pretend to which makes them inherently untrustworthy in my estimation.
I watched them vidio their atrocities they were proud to murder inocent people. Even the wife's of the palistinians geared at naked women who had just been striped raped and dragged in the street for even their children to see. They are evil.
True, the most likely scenario is that Netanyahu wanted this attack to happen.
@pd5826 Iran didn't even know about the attack but I get your point.
@@pd5826How, dose it justify the killing of innocent, hostage taking.
@@tomtom3889 We can come up with a few possible causes and future escalations and hopefully ways to solve the problem peacefully but fog of war can make things murky even for experts to know if its even possible to know at all right now
I have studied these options in class, but I always found that something was missing in all of this, and that's the fundamental fact of human emotions. There is very deep hatred and frustration in both sides when it comes to this conflict, and the more conflicts arise (such as terrorist attacks on one side, or the killing of journalists on the other, or attacks on mosques, etc.), the more there is a chance that these lead to a boiling point where tensions, and simply hatred, lead to one side just wanting to hurt the other, either as revenge, or just to kill the ones they see as the enemy.
That's not quite missing, 'cost' doesn't have to be dollars, it better represents economic value. KFC provides economic value in the happiness you get in eating it, hence it gets smuggled over the tunnel. If revenge has economic value, it can be represented as a negative cost of war. With enough desire for vengeance, you get a total net negative cost war like described.
Genocide is a staple of humanity it seems. Until we move these old fucks aside they’ll continue to get us into these genocidal wars. This is all in the name of their man made gods. It’s delusional. 🤦♂️
They are generations deep in hatred. Both sides have a fair historical claim, but Israelis are not as ubiquitous at hate as the Palestinians. There are many reasons for that but Israel has offered many fair compromises and Palestinians could never accept it. Now the children of Palestine are raised to hate the Jews. You cannot live next to a neighbor who is willing to do something like this. I say its time to end it. Peace is rejected Israel is the more powerful state, annex all the occupied territories and pull a Nogorno Karabkh and deport Palestinians to Lebanon and Syria plain and simple. I will never support a two state solution. I will never support the idea of Palestine again. Thats now all Israel.
Exactly. We are dealing with two pseudo-fascist powers here and fascists are often not rational actors. There's a reason why Putin then and Hamas now seem to have made so many miscalculations. Perhaps calculations don't play as big of a role as we would expect from rational actors. That is, imo, the main oversight when you focus on game theory like analysis.
Yeah, he did touch on this in the Russia-Ukraine war video, those are 'irrational' reasons for war and I have always felt that his coverage somewhat under-emphasises them as they apply to recent conflicts. But it can still be represented through the kind of model he showed with rather extreme values being the only practical difference
“War is not free.” I really feel bad for all of the innocent civilian people that are caught in crossfire due to this. It is heartbreaking
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
Humans fight. Its part of life and always will be. Always has been. It just is what it is.
🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸Yes!
True. Hamas blew up its own hospital in an attempt to blame Israel did it. Oops, America had taped Hamas on their cell phones planning the whole thing. 500 Palestinians killed. Hamas killed their own people in an attempt for sympathy and Israel did it. That's proof of your statement. Good one.
Events like this makes us realize that the world really is in financial turmoil 😔. Greed is all behind this
Russia. Greed and Russia. lol. This very much a broadening of the Russian/Ukraine war by Russia in an attempt to leesen NATO's support of Ukraine because now it must also help Israel. Yeah, but in reality it just means both countries get better, more powerful, more accurate weapons. Why Russia continues to think NATO has a shortage of weapons after 60 years of cold war, is completely beyond me. And I don't think you will see an end to either conflict unless Russia is defeated thus removing Putin. Or however you remove Putin. Until he's gone, he's going to be nothing but more and more trouble. Mark my word. Take care and good comment. Follow the Money bitches! (yeah retired accountant here. somebody had to do it :)
I wonder what kind of economical gain does Palestinian gets from this conflicts?? The sole reason why they fight is for their sovereignty. Stop trying to shift to whatever BS accusation you have.
This had nothing to do with money.
? U have no idea what u talkin about. It's about Israel wanting to destroy Hamas forever due to their never ending aim to exterminate all Jews and remove the state of Israel. This just was the last straw.
But not all actors see war itself as a negative. Some, especially religious zealots, see fighting and dying as superior to giving in even if they lose (either because of religious convictions or simply a desire for revenge). This also brings up principal-agent problems, eg, when an actor gains domestically from prosecuting a losing war.
I think it’s clear what Hamas and Benjamin gain from this. They share a symbiotic relationship where Hamas increases the far-rights stability in Isreal and in turn more death and destruction of Palestinian civilians causes an increase in support for Hamas and more radicalisation. This is horrible nonsensical war that will only lead to even more bloodshed and death of innocents on both sides. The international community should be pushing for a peaceful resolution and a two state solution.
Usa lies wars as they can sell guns as they have prisons made for slavery and profits aswell as places for main purpose to break human rights its not too far to see usa support genocide
Not restricted only to a religion there is also nationality, political side... People will use anything to justify their sick ideals
Damn, that’s an interesting take. Almost like an ancient factor that hasn’t had relevance in centuries.
It's not what you think, these people are fighting because they believe they own something, religious places etc etc thenfughting has been going on since before the Bible, holy land and so much more, they simply want that. You have other people that have nothing to lose and join because his entire family was killed in a bombing so they fight for them. It's always different from location to location around the world. The people thinking war isn't bad are crazy 😜 they usually stay far away from the fighting as well
In decades to come, they'll say "may your country's flag never appear in the thumbnail for a William Spaniel video".
In my experience, being aware of your own not-all-knowingness and communicating that with your audience is it's own qualification. I'm probably an expert in my trade because I dedicated my life to it. Yet, there are still more things I can't comprehend than the ones I confidently do. That's why we need to talk to each other. Learn from others, let others learn from you. Thank you Will for this perspective and your expertise. A 20min YT video won't solve the levantine decade long problems, but a conversation can eventually lead to sound decisions and reasoned opinions.
The term “Failure of Imagination” does not come from the 9/11 attacks. The term has been used since at least 1967 where it was used during the Apollo 1 hearings as a major cause of the disaster.
I was banking on you covering this, and I'm glad you didn't disappoint
It's funny. I was thinking to my self "Where is William Spaniel 's take on all this?" As I selected KZhead on my Roku and there it was, this video already selected and ready to play.
“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous." -George Orwell
War is a racket - Smedley D Butler
"Perpetual war for perpetual peace.-- Gore Vidal If prayers were answered, we'd be basking in perpetua peace and tranquility. "Religion poisons everything."--Christopher Hitchens
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
Nah, this is different, this war is biblical. Jews are trying to rebuild their temple. They think they can get one more good war out of America before we completely fall apart.
@@XX-qi5euwhy are you bringing religion into this
1:54 I really appreciate that you gave a fair warning about how many lines on a map we should expect. That really helped me get mentally ready for what was about to come.
OMG!!! This is another golden journalism by someone on KZhead. You guys are 100% better than what we see on TV or fake social media platforms... World Class Post
An AI wrote this comment.
@@LazyOtaku100%, or someone just regurgitating what they hear online.
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
He is not the source of the information and didn't directly investigate either. You still need journalist on the ground to report. It's like a nice, well sourced book report. But just because it's a good report doesn't mean you did anything to obtain those sources.
Very helpful context. Thanks for consistently providing some of the best international relations content out there!
And he's realy fast at getting these well thought out videos out. How does he do it?
@@nicolaj9510He's able to gather all this data without his data being harvested is all thanks to this video's sponsor NordVPN
@@nicolaj9510 Adderall
@nicolaj9510 Well he is a professor of international studies (at least I think that’s what he said in an older video), so it probably comes naturally to him.
This is the first time I felt like you said absolutely nothing. This is what safe get you. I have to give you a big F on this paper
video would have been fine I think if the title were "Possible Causes" Guy emphasized the fact he's ignoring the history alot of times like why not? Why not go over the history?
Good to have you covering this conflict. I enjoy your content. Especially the dad jokes. At the same time lets all pray that you need not cover many more wars 🙏
The phrase "failure of imagination" dates all the way back to the Apollo 1 fire, where Frank Borman used it to describe how a highly dangerous test scenario was allowed to be implemented.
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
Mr. Spaniel, you always take us to the deep end and make sure we're wearing our P.F.D. for our own piece of mind....thank you.
"I am not the CIA" sounds exactly like something the CIA would say 👀
CIA SOP #1: Deny Everything. Don't commit to anything, omit everything.
"the guy was an interior decorator" haha
It would explain why his analyses are always so on point.
There is no CIA.
It wasn’t a thirty year thing; it goes back to WW1, with the English and the Ottoman Empire. Throwing the concept of the Suez channel, giving away Palestinian land without negotiations that their land was basically being forfeited. Lines are great if everyone agrees, but when you take it for your own without consulting with the owners of the land; then there is a big deal.
Nicely done, Bill. Thank you for putting this together.
This is the best analysis any expert with open-source intelligence can give. This channel taught me a lot about how war works.
everyone be saying exactly those words on almost any video about hamas and israel analisis, ive seen 6 vids, most say different things yet same comments
This analysis is shockingly bad, what the heck have you been watching ? This is the same channel that has gotten pretty much everything wrong about the ukraine war. 😂
some big mistakes. Lines on maps is not very useful for this topic as there is going to be no change in any lines on maps from before and afterwards regardless of what happens. The biggest mistake was that Israeli civilians would be deterred from living on the border with Gaza. Most of the people on the border were quite far left politically, so even if they don't return, then hardcore right wing people armed to the teeth would come instead or as well now.
fr@@qqq3426
@@qqq3426Ridiculous. He's actually been fairly prescient in several cases, and I don't think I've seen anything from him that was far off the mark. Let me guess, you've got a vatnik bias.
I am glad to see you are covering this conflict as well, you’re commentary on Ukraine is great and informative and I’ve seen every video, great effort!
i live in Beirut and i've been a fan of this channel since the RU invasion of Ukraine. The causes of this conflict have been known for decades. More Ukraine videos please, Slava Ukraini!
Love to Lebanon from the US. Hope times improve there.
I'd advise you kindly to leave Beirut for the meantime, just as a precaution. For your own safety. Things can get intense in a matter of hours, if some morons won't be cautious enough.
@@skvetnyyou said like its easy to just leave home.. how old are you ? 14?
@@beatlesleo I didn't say it was easy. Hell no. But it's necessary sometimes. When it's a matter of life and death, the answer for me is obvious. At least for a short period of time for things to settle. You have American F-18 doing fly-by warning right on top of your head. I'd take this thing seriously.
@@skvetny I agree. If it was me here in Sweden i wouldnt think twice at all. I dont want to take the risk that my child, wife and family dies for nothing. And to be honest Hamas has now put the whole of Lebanon at risk because they are selfish and driven by hate.
Long time watcher, first time commenting, but I would also like to raise a point that there can 'parasitic' incentives for organizations as well as individuals, that help the organization in question at the expense of the larger political unit. In particular to this, Hamas derives much of its legitimacy by being able to and willing to fight Israel. You go into this a fair bit in the leader incentive portion, but I would just want to raise a certain bleak possibility; that to reinforce its raison d'etre, Hamas might need to attack Israel periodically, simply to prove it still fights Israel, a proof necessary to its ongoing survival as an organization.
I believe you are wrong, slaughtering over 1300 people, mostly civilians while cheering, laughing and praising god isnt something you do to prove you can "still fight". Why they did it? For the same reason ISIS went around slaughtering people. Because of hatred, poor teachings and religion. From my comment section experience from over the years, most Palestinians doesnt want Palstine, but they want all Israelis to die and this was simply just an atempt to kill as many Israelis as possible and cause tension between Israel and Saudia.
I was about to write that comment, i actualy think the video should have started with that. If Hamas stop attacking, they have zero purpose.
Oh please, that bleak outlook of Hamas is a one off. It’s not like there’s countless organizations throughout the parts of world ignored by Western Foreign Policy and public attention that have proven the continued effectiveness of that strateg-wait… oh shit… wait…
Considering what Gaza deals with it's not just survival as an organization.
No, they'd still live under apartheid. @@peternystrom921
Thanks. I have been waiting for a geopolitics-tuber to do a decent breakdown of this situation. Now I have something I can show to help explain all this to grandma (and others). Keep it up.
It really Starts with the UK promising both sides a homeland Why do all modern conflicts stem from France and England not being able to a draw a map
And the UK had a two state plan that Palestine denied 3 times
@@simoncohen9323 so if Russia proposes two state solution to Ukraine should they accept it ? That's what am getting from your comment
@@Z-ds7uy the point is Jews and Palestinians have been their for a while Jews historically have been their longer however when Britain was giving it up they an the UN came with a two state system Palestine refused and never made their own country instead joining Egypt and Jordan teg so called occupied areas Israel has was taken from Egypt and Jordan not Palestine
@@Z-ds7uyThe situations aren’t 10% analogous. It’s more like if the USA had offered to broker a two state solution between Russia and Ukraine in 1991 when the USSR broke up.
@@simoncohen9323they denied it because they shouldn't have to give up any of their land.
I’ve missed your great informative videos,thank you for your reports
I am so grateful for the careful thoughtful walk through you give us on distressing events. It is your careful dissection of facts and your integrity in your expression of opinions and thoughts…it is so admired. Thanks again for such great content.
Good job William, very good content!
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
I don't understand why Egypt is unwilling to help palestinians out? Why are they blocking their border with Gaza? I frequently hear criticism about how Israel is blocking Gaza but no one minds Egypt. And for some reason no Arab nations are willing to take in palstinians
Jordan & Lebanon took in Palestinians but you can see how that went...
They do not want Palestinian refugees and iirc when Jordan accepted Palestinians before they turned and tried to overthrow the Hashemite government. That led to many Arab nations in fact turning against their previously unfettered support of the Palestinians.
@@caustictoad Jordan is doing fine, so don't know what your point is there. Lebanon's problems (sectarianism) go far deeper than its Palestinian population.
The last thing Egypt needs is (more) unrest. Those people are nothing but trouble and Egypt knows it.
The vast majority of Palestinians live in arab countries and Israel.
It's a good day when you drop a video man, you always cut through the biased rhetoric and really let us know what's up
Thank god I found this video. Definitely cleared up this issue for me a bit
William Spaniel brilliant as always! It’s amazing how he makes this difficult topic pretty understandable to the public. And all those, who couldn’t follow all of the content, get rewarded at least with one of the best samples of English diction available. Lucky all those who have William as a neighbour!
I hope you don’t discover that he is a voice bot, and not a human at all…
I think the only way the two sides can live peacefully is if they unify.
@philtucker1224 Past videos already commented on the “his voice is just an AI” speculation. He even used predictive text to write an outro for that.
as a neighbour would be great, invite him over for coffee and dessert and you might get lines on cake!
There are some cases where war is mutually preferred even though both parties have accurate information. If both parties prefer war as a method to justify their authority, or to get rid of excess young men before they become a problem, or stimulate the military industrial complex, or line the pockets of the leader at the expense of their people, war can be the desired state for both parties.
The people of Gaza are in an open air prison, with limited access to water electricity and medicine. The average age of its citizens is under 18. One side is occupied, one side is prisoners. And the sad truth is that only one side has a chance … the people Of Gaza will be wiped out. Genocide.
That makes war sound like cancer.
@@nathanlevesque7812as if without
@nathanlevesque7812 It isn't?
When your enemy declares his intent to destroy you to the last man from baby to old man you must go ahead and do the same to him
Thank you 💛. I may be dumb but I've got to say that even after listening to this, I still don't have a clue. Thank you 💛 William for taking the time to explain things. Even though I still don't understand.
Thanks! Excellent walk-through.
You can't throw up some lines for this one, sadly.
The British already did, in 1948.
@@teeteetuu94 👈 another ignoramus who doesn’t have a clue British Peel Partition plan 1937 UN Partition plan 1947 (without British or Arab input) If you’re going to comment at very least get the date right 🤦🏽
@@teeteetuu94 The problem is more that the British did not draw and enforce lines in 1948, they tossed the problem to the UN who themselves merely offered some suggested optional lines that could be used if the Arab States desired to. Both the British and the UN abdicated the responsibility of actually putting any troops on the ground to enforce lines, so it could only ever lead to war.
Excellent analysis, except for the part where you wrongly assume that Israel will seek to limit Palestinian civilian casualties. They don't - the official policy of the Israeli State has been one of slow starvation of the Gaza Strip and its people, and in past operations, they have knowingly and deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure - and then refused to allow in (re)building materials.
The whole video is useless without acknowledging that fact. Terrorist become prevalent during social upheaval and hard times. The Israelis are basically sieging the Gaza strip creating those hard times so Palestinians join terror group that give them the slightest hope of removing that situation and then become indoctrinated and seek goals which the Israelis can't and shouldn't agree to. If Israeli refuses to, you know, not kill off all the people in Gaza then they're only making it easier for extremist to prosper.
I'm new to this channel, and im really enjoying the presentation style, and the content. I've subscribed. Keep doing the good work and have a great youtube career!
Thanks, William, one of the very few creators I 'like' even before I've watched it.
Great take on this issue. Different from everyone else.
“The question is, why?” Distel Atbaryan continued, before explaining: “If Hamas collapses, Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas] may control the strip. If he controls it, there will be voices from the left that will encourage negotiations and a political solution and a Palestinian state, also in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] … This is the real reason why Netanyahu does not eliminate the Hamas leader, everything else is bullshit.” Indeed, Netanyahu himself had effectively admitted as much a couple of months before Distel Atbaryan made her comments, when he declared in a Likud meeting that “anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state needs to support strengthening Hamas. This is part of our strategy, to isolate Palestinians in Gaza from Palestinians in Judea and Samaria.”
Do Palestinians want a state? My understanding is they have never actually said they want a two state solution. They simply want Israel to be eliminated entirely. Is this not their position? It’s my understanding why piece hasn’t been and currently isn’t possible.
Unfortunately you don't know your history. I'm positive you believe the Palestinians are fighting for their homeland. They are not. Prior to the establishment of the Jewish people over 5000 years ago. That land was inhabited by the Canaanites. But the Palestinians are not the descendents of the Canaanites , that would be who we call Lebanon since the Canaanites migrated there after Israel forced them out. Nevertheless the Nation of Israel has not annihilated these people. But the PLO and HAMAS throughout the years have claimed to be their champions all the while exploiting them for their own purpose. Yasser Arafat became a multi millionaire stealing money meant for the people .Abbas is no different. All the while blaming Israel for the miserable plight of the people. All this information can be found by simply googling. Its not propaganda its research from an objective mind.
And if Hamas was stupid enough to fall for this "trick" why should I feel sorry for their inept decision-making. Did they really believe there would be no consequences from this attack? Also Netanyahu said he wants to eliminate Hamas. I guess he changed his mind about them.
@@robclarkson3697 its a split, most people want peace even if it means forming Palestinian state and doing separate but equal two state but one nation plan or reform/join into Israel full stop if it means stable access to food, water, shelter, jobs, ect ect and equal treatment. biggest problems are there is a deep hatred and distrust that is easily tapped by terrorists and political leaders to torpedo efforts to build peace and most of the leaders in Israel, Palestinian and others really dont like each other or only have their positions because said deep hatred and will be replaced/killed if they look like they working too closely with the others or giving the appearances of submitting/kneeling to the hated enemies so in short extremism
@@robclarkson3697 Hamas might not want peace but most Palestinians just want to live in peace and not be held captive in a strip of land. This is the difficulty with just talking about lines on maps and major power figures. There is a lot of context lost of social issues and how it affects the milieu of the civilians. You lose the context of Palestinians being forced out of their homes. You get a lot of projection about how every Palestinian must be supporting Hamas or at the very least that civilian life is expendable because of how much of a supposed threat Hamas is when most people who died were in no way affiliated. The current issue of the "big picture" is that Palestinians are dehumanized in multiple angles and treated as a threat despite a good majority of them just wanting to live normal everyday lives. The difficulty is that there are plenty of powerful figures who put it as either you are for Israel or you are for Hamas when the reality of the situation is that these power structures are murderers and it is just civilians suffering under megalomaniacs who live off of war profits.
Thank you for helping us simpletons with this valuable information. It all makes sense now that I am educated in the situation 👍👍
I've been waiting for days to hear your take on things ... and always.... you didn't disappoint... on the information side... ut I really wish you would post more.. I absolutely love your channel
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
Lines on maps are back! 🙌
Finally someone helps me to understand the situation properly
@panzerkeks8530 It's well complicated. Jordan Peterson has a book out about it and a Muslim will write a book also. I pray for the Innocent.👍
Jordan Peterson isn't a serious person, find better sources. @@janice2992
Thank you for explaining a difficult subject. As a bonus, I'll look into your book , Militant Competition.
Thanks for this exceptional explanation!
No matter what, it's important that we don't lose track of Ukraine.
I'm not sure how the video is going to be a start of William shifting away from Ukraine though?
Ukraine is doomed because of this conflict and Russia and China now found a new way of dealing with the western support to Ukraine.
Ukraine is losing russia started its offensive on all fronts lol
@@kidgaminggaming5731 It literally just started. How do we know that this is the start of a Russian victory? For all we know it could suffer the fate of that time Russia tried to take Kiev.
@@kidgaminggaming5731Stick to something you know about like kids gaming.
You should have started with what happened immediately after WWII.
during WWI actually
This is all because of America's failure to lead globalization. which has resulted in disappointment with America itself
I have been waiting for this since day 1 :)
Fantastic job making this conflict almost sort of make sense
You just explained geopolitical dynamics for me. It applies to me directly because I reside in a place that has been reshaped to confuse any type of activity that does not align to Moscow. So self determination is not part of it? I am speaking about the carving up of Circassia. Is Russia using Circassia to play with its neighbors? I mean is Ukraine in on the literal abuse of power taking place to lead in the region? Russia and Moscow are neither the leaders or the group who I turn to when I think of homeland? Russia is not a real country to me in that sense.
Complete oversimplification
This is the MOST comprehensive explanation of this area I have ever seen! In simple terms I can comprehend this, many thanks! Up to this point the out side extraordinary view point has been in my mind..wHY? Your seemingly through explanation has shown me how things are going> Got to the end and I applaude this video..finally a more direct show of what this entire area is generally all about. I ::salute::you and your work.
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
@@user-rq3xl1pp9hthis is why you can't take scripture out of context. Have you ever read it as a whole??
Thank you for sharing the video
One of the weird things I have never gotten used to is the assumption that mathematics can be used to understand the human condition. The level of abstraction in this type of mathematical reasoning becomes less useful when approaching parties that are unreasonable and irrational; it assumes that Hamas and Israel are acting rationally at the moment. From my interactions with war scholars, I have seen them tend to regard political actors as universally competent and universally rational actors. Because it misses the human factor, I believe there is little explanatory power to the game-theoretic models often assumed of war. Since constructivism failed to blunt the mathematical enthusiasm of political science, it seems to me as though the field is becoming less attached to understanding and more attached to "knowing," which is a dangerous epistemological distinction.
Even rational people buy a lottery ticket.😉
This. Game Theory has always struck me as an attempt to "quantify" something that's fundamentally not quantifiable.
Complaints about physics envy can certainly be valid. But the reason game theory is useful is precisely because it's able to explain away certain behaviors as more rational than they appear prima facie. I.e. it represents an improvement on understanding the human factor rather than an obstacle.
@thefance4708 my issue isn't that the logic isn't prima facie. My issue is that by its very nature, it must be reductionist. It presupposes a similar nature between types of variables and delimits the quantity of potentially viable factors to a set number. As a social scientist, I find this typically misses the mark and hedges our thinking far too narrowly.
@@tom_561 Eh, I typically think of the weak-point of Game Theory as abstracting away all possible variables into an utility function. Game Theory has no way of compiling an exhaustive list of the actual hidden variables. Additionally, there's no guarantee that the real-world preferences are even transitive. But these problems aren't really unique to Game Theory. There's a lengthy quote by Carlyle that says something to the effect of "statistics can't prove; they can only disprove". I think the real issue is not the math itself, but a widespread attitude that math and science is an exercise in uncovering the transcendent truth, rather than a process of elimination of falsehood. This is probably what you meant by "reductionism", but I think le mote juste is closer to "mathematical realism". Although you'd think academia would have learned this lesson from Popper by now. I half anticipate a rebuttal along the lines of "yeah, but Spaniel's Lines-On-Maps still completely fails to model fanatical nutcases like Hamas". But I think you can salvage that line of thinking by factoring in tactical considerations like precommitment to sacred values, and the superrational nature of irrational tribalism (which again, I see as exactly what Game Theory was designed to solve).
This is the single best video I've seen on this subject, and I expected nothing less
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
Excellent as always.
Great video! The problem with skipping audio from previous videos is still present though.
Wow, a reference to "Dinosaurs." I've been waiting for over 30 years to see that. For anyone who doesn't know, this was a show that aired on ABC. Part of the plot involved a war between the two-legged dinosaurs and the four-legged dinosaurs. When reporting on it, DNN used "WAR" as an acronym for We Are Right.
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
You explained these geopolitical dynamics in a most unbiased, scientific take and I appreciate that. So much of what people are saying in the Tiktok comments are just parroting the same stuff without adding any context or subtext (on both sides). Unless we are actively living in it and seeing every decision their leaders are making and why, we can't know the extent of the situation. All I can see is that the situation is nuanced. I just wish they could come up with a peaceful agreement, but I think that ship has long sailed. Sad for all the innocent civilians locked in the crosshair and all the barbaric deaths of civilian Jews. The whole thing just sucks.
Well said.
I added a thumbs up to your comment. The whole thing just sucks.
William where does the mathematics article that flashed pas at 9'48" come from?
Thank you for your explainer.
Praise be the algorithm
Praise be!
I think we are missing a few key points that led up to this war, dating back all the way to 1917, with the Balfour Declaration, then in 1947 with the Partition of Palestine, as well as the Six Day War in 1967, which gave Israel control over Gaza and West Bank, and finally, the formation of Hamas in 1987, who started as an activist group but in the end took more extremist persuasions, which led to the first intifada which ended in 1993. Now while what has led up to this, does not excuse Hamas for their barbaric actions, nor does it excuse the Israeli leadership for effectively building an apartheid state, and Hamas is certainly not doing the Palestinians any favors with their barbarity. Hamas' mere existence is going to end up destroying the very people they claim to fight for. I don't think 30 years is enough, we would have to use all of the history of the current modern state of Israel, which has only been around since 1917.
It would be nice if palestinians could vote in new leadership. But they arent allowed to. Israel hasn't let them have an election in what? 16 years? Israel holds all the cards and they have for decades. the state of Israel bears a massive amount of responsibility for the terror attack given the decades long ethnic cleansing and also given that Israel was given intelligence about the attack ahead of time and it was ignored.
100% and for some added context there is strong evidence that Mossad helped popularise Hamas (directly or indirectly depends on your view). Before Hamas Palestinian liberation groups were primarily left wing and were United. Hamas came in and radicalised many people and weaked all those groups with infighting and direct conflict. This led to extremism and Hamas becoming the dominant force in Gaza. the fall of the Soviet Union and Iran’s funding also plays a major part in that. People don’t realise they often dehumanise. But the evil Islamist terrorism we see today is a very new thing in the grand scheme of things and it’s a direct result of Cold War era polices. A similar thing can be seen with ISIS, Al-queda, and the tailban who many of their leaders were trained, funded, equipoise by the CIA “to fight the commies”
The state itself was founded only in 1948. The declaration as such merely suggested the basis of political acceptance of the Brits to establish some form of a national home to the Jews. BTW I don't think that the first Intifada has ended in 1993. How do you conclude it was then? Israel is not even close to be an Apartheid state.
@@skvetnyAre you serious.. Just research Hebron.
Isreal has killed 9 times the people Hamas and other factions killed but somehow Isreal is not terrorist state.
When are you going to make an audio version of your book ?
First time watching, love this analysis.
I think the lines on map approach to Gaza takes a much farther back seat then the lines on a radicalization graph. Hamas doesn't necessarily care about how much land they have, they care about killing all the jews and can they get away with it. Moving the border of Gaza a few Km one way or another isn't important, which is why they didn't take guard stations after killing all the soldiers. Their goal was to kill, not to take ground. Lines on maps kinda falls flat on describing that kind of brutality.
"They just want to kill all the jews" is kind of simplistic low effort thinking.
Finally, the truth! Hamas doesn't care about land, they just hate Jews, and want to kill them.
lines on maps, especially the way this channel uses it in a qualitative and not literal-exact-coordinates way, is a good way to visualise conflicting goals between groups and decision-making interactions, a bit like simplified curves in economics are useful for understanding the core logic of economics but arent always that clean of a line in real life. the abstraction serves some purpose (video goes over this part from around 9:00 onwards)
You should first be asking why hamas exists at all, wich leads right back to the creation of israel and maps show what happened to palestinians after that.
@@Tyrgalon Hamas is a puppet terrorist organization, funded and led by Iran. The Palestinians voted for Hamas to rule over them, and now we have this horror.
Is it possible that there are non rational factors?
Thank you for having some common sense. This guy seems to assume every actor in a war is the US or China.
@@DragnEYEYeah I was thinking that maybe it's just not something that can be academically measured easily?
this, political science demands that we assume some degree of rationality but this conflict is a highly emotional one from all involved and interested
Great well balanced and educated analysis!
Prove me wrong! Hadith Riyad as-Salihin 1820 nis a call for a Genocide: Abu Hurairah (May Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah(ﷺ) said, "The Last Hour will not come until the Muslims fight against the Jews, until a Jew will hide himself behind a stone or a tree, and the stone or the tree will say: 'O Muslim, there is a Jew behind me. Come and kill him,'
My favorite Warographer is back!
You have very much glossed over why the Palestinians (if not Hamas) might see this as an existential crisis. Going into the full history is obviously impossible, but it is very important to the premise of this video to understand why participants and supporters might believe they have no other choice, and how the actions by isreal and it's current leadership play into that. The indiscriminate attacks into Gaza, the support for violent occupation in the West Bank, and the denial of basic rights/necessity/practical autonomy to Palestinians in general all play a role in why Hamas is able to carry something like this out. If I were subjected to that, I would certainly believe inaction meant death.
> I would certainly believe inaction meant death. What is “action” then? Killing a thousand Israeli civilians? How does that solve anything?
@@definitely_not_a_robot People in desperate situations often act in whatever ways remain to them, if only because they feel inaction is certain death. Though terror attacks have so far been arguably the only way they've ever successfully gotten anything from israel in the past, so it's not surprising they would go that route again, especially since you can't do much else when under an extensive blockade. None of this is even alluded to in the video, despite being a major part of the actual academic literature discussing the dynamic of terror attacks in general, in which the Gaza-israel dynamic is a pretty major focus. So this video is basically leaving out arguably one of the major factors that should enter into his simplistic game theory model.
Terror attacks worldwide have never been successful in the long term….
@@definitely_not_a_roboti mean when they protest they get killed to. Search up Great March of Return protests and tell me how many unarmed civilians the IDF killed. How does killing protesters solve anything?
@@definitely_not_a_robot war is politics by other means. The deaths of israelis serve Hamas by making clear to Israel that there will be a human cost to its continued occupation. The goal of Hamas is to inflict as much pain as possible. The more pain it inflicts, the greater the pressure on Israelis to end the occupation of the WB. The fact that they may die is irrelevant because they consider themselves dead if they don't win a war anyways.
If everyone talked about the problems we have in America like they did other places meybe we could fix some of our own problems
I was really hoping you would cover this.
Dr. Spaniel, thank you for giving detailed information for this. I was totally confused when I turned the telly on during October 7th, hearing the surprise attack in Israel and abduction of 250 people, as I didn't have prior knowledge of the history of Hamas or the Israel-Palestine conflicts.
The chicken is Steve and he crows after each bombing. Steve is a savage that never dies. This is Steve’s 3rd tour🐓
😂 I heard him.
Steve Lookner
Thank god. I needed to see some lines on maps today. I was Suffering from withdrawal symptoms.
My two penneth worth on this is, that the Leadership of Hamas dose not care that much for the people that live in Gaza, they are just a way to make they're lives richer and better. So from their point of view there is very little cost to war, in fact it is more costly not to go to war, as to do nothing would make them irrelevant. Hamas is in fact spitting its dummy out of the pram, due to the fact that the west has ignored the Palestinian question over the last year and a half and has been concentrating on Ukraine, making the leaders irrelevant.
I very much enjoyed that video thanks
Pretty sure this has gone way beyond anyone being worried about civilians now.
Your just saying this to justify killing civilians without having to deal with the implications of the historic wrongs of Israeli. Over a hundred thousand Palestinians have already died unjustly under the Israeli apartheid in the last 75 years. By just labeling a small group as terrorists this allows the media to turn a blind eye to Israeli completely massacreing a population of over 2 million (while completely displacing the surviors). There is a lot of propaganda online especially throught the news media but almost all on the on the ground footage (which is undeniable evidence) shows Israeli demolishing neighborhoods with civilians.
I Love these informative videos , good job William
Excellent monologue, to say the least.
No way Mossad was surprised, NO WAY
I think 'lines on maps' do not apply to that war/conflict at all, even as an illustration.
War is fundamentally political. Yeah there’s underlying hatreds but somebody had to choose to go one step further. Somebody in Iran had to choose to ship arms to Palestine for their own ends. Somebody in Gaza had to choose when to attack and how. It’s not a spontaneous street brawl.
The war in Ukraine is, among other things, about territory. The people of Gaza could not be made Happy by expanding the borders of the Gaza Strip, the issues are self-determination, free travel, political representation, oppression and occupation. It's really hard to draw a line showing the amount of oppression a population will accept. This is not a a conflict that can be resolved with territorial concessions. It requires real substantive changes. Considering the trajectory of Israel's politics I don't see that happening anytime soon.
When even the children lose hope for a better future, as do the children of Gaza, then it has simply gone on for too long. But it's not a solution in and of itself if Israel clears Gaza and annexes the area, that will only fuel decades more of hatred and bloodlust. This whole thing is such a tragedy with no appearant way out.
Good overview thankyou. It seems your lines on maps will be east-west rather than north-south though..
Congratulations on reaching a half million subscribers!
Man I looked up the uncensored footage of the Hamas attack. I should not have done that.. I like how you called out all the keyboard warriors that are truly going bonkers the last couple days
Part of the cause is the extreme imbalance in the application of lethal force over the conflict, more than 20:1. According to the UN, 6,407 Palestinians and 308 Israelis have been killed while 152,560 Palestinians and 6,308 Israelis have been injured since 2008. A critical mass of desperate, hopeless, vengeful people make very different cost/benefit analyses than outsiders would. Consider how different things would be if the Palestinians were the ones with a world class military, US protection in the UN Security Council, and the casualty ratio went the other way. Then the Palestinians wouldn't attack like this, it would be the Israelis. Anyone ignoring this difference and the psychological dynamic is going to be surprised.
Actually, you don't need to imagine this, just check what happened when Jewish communities were under attack in Arab countries. They haven't massacred their neighbors, they just left and Israel accepted them.
@@DavidLaninoh my God isreal ethnically cleansed 750 000 palestinians by terrorizing them by massacres like dar Yasin all according to Plan Dalet
I never heard of a victim that could instantly cut off its oppressor’s access to food, water, fuel, and electricity.
I never heard of a victor giving back conquered land to its defeated enemy who will never stop trying to genocide the victor, which is exactly what has been happening in Gaza since 2005. The fact that the Israelis let the Palestinians continue to exist and live there is a testament to their restraint because if it was the other way around, the arabs would genocide all of the jews from their homeland.
You smashed it!
You seemed to have missed some info in the "leader benefits" segment. Netanyahu's goverment is deeply unpopular with a decent section of the Israeli population (the more secular, moderate and tolerant section of the population). What happened now is that one of the most advanced and competent intelligence agencies somehow missed the preparations of the one faction (HAMAS) it spends most of its focus on countering. As a direct result of their failure the Israeli populace gets attacked meaning that there is a strong incentive for that population to unify behind a leader and it just so happens that this leader tends to have very strong anti-palistinian and far right views that a large part of that population would normally not support. It get why you didn't mention it, because it comes across as very tinfoil hat. Though you can't argue that this entire chain of events happens to be very convenient for Netanyahu from a purely "leader benefits" point of view.
I agree. I think the whole Palestinian situation was created so Netanyahu and his far right govt. can stay in power. Their expansion in the West Bank makes no sense. Tbh, I don't think current Israel govt. wants peace at all. If they really want to resolve the situation in Gaza, they could've worked extensively with Fatah in normalizing the relationship and perhaps modernize the West Bank for all its worth, and perhaps people in Gaza would look other way. Instead, the stupid things they did in the West Bank and East Jerusalem... it really just makes Hamas look like a more viable option for Palestinian and other anti-West Arabs.
The problem with that theory is that the security of the state trumps any and all qualms about Judicial reform- failing to maintain security is the absolute worst case scenario for an Israeli politician. There’s a reason why every single person in charge of the government and army during the Yom Kippur War was immediately forced out of office afterwards. More than anything else, the government must be able to credibly promise security. There’s already polling released today showing 95% of Israelis blaming the government at least in part for the deaths. Including more than 80%! of the current ruling coalition supporters. 60% of those polled currently support the statement that Netanyahu must resign immediately after the war. And this is all before any formal investigations have taken place while in the middle of an active war.
@@Brian82406 Absolutely, they had decades to figure out a sustainable workable solution. Instead they turned Gaza into a ghetto and colonized the West bank further displacing and antagonizing Palestinians. What further supports your thesis is also that the settlers on the West-bank are taking this opportunity to fire upon Palestinians there (that have nothing to do with what's happening in Gaza). This entire thing was the excuse that the radical Israeli wanted to attack and oust the local Palestinians.
So this is basically like a Filler Episode for the war in Ukraine
odd question i noticed in the intro slides the bookshelf has only czech language literature there makes me wonder why?
This a good one
I think you missed one really important potential cause - capability. Hamas isn't a modern developed state with the ability to fight full wars virtually at will. They're a very weak force in absolute terms, and an offensive like this takes significant planning and a large share of their available resources (plus some luck, of course). I'd wager a significant sum that they didn't have the capability to launch an attack like this until fairly recently, and they took the first good opportunity they had. Honestly, as much as I like lines-on-maps theory for the Russia-Ukraine case, I don't think it accurately describes the Israel-Palestine case. Hamas in particular feels a moral imperative to draw the lines on the map "from the river to the sea", as they say (i.e., achieving the complete annihilation of Israel). Anything less would be unthinkable, and perhaps even literal blasphemy to them. This isn't a case of bargaining theory, because they do not want to bargain. They want to exterminate their foes - they're quite open about this, and discuss it regularly. And by all accounts, they actually mean it. It's not just strutting for game-theoretical reasons. In a case like that, you'd expect to see things ebb and flow based on ability, not willpower, which seems to accurately describe what we see out of Gaza.
Why not mention how both sides feel constantly threatened by the other side & how that stress builds over years? Hamas & it's actions are evil, but it also seems obvious that if a group of people is oppressed for decades that can radicalize some of the people.
The split second I heard that lines on maps had been crossed, I sighed and knew a video was in the works.
Thank you!