The Economy: What You've Missed
2024 ж. 13 Мам.
132 943 Рет қаралды
Gary analyses the economy over the past 6 months. And what he expects to happen next.
UNDERSTAND, SHARE & PUSH BACK
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Performed by Gary Stevenson
@garyseconomics
In Belgium we have a system of wage indexation. This means that our wages automatically rise when basic products become more expensive. Belgium is the only country in the EU that has this system and has received a lot of criticism for it in the past. However, this system ensures that the middle class retains its purchasing power in times of crisis, which is good for domestic consumption. Today Belgium is one of the few countries in the EU with positive growth figures. It could be interesting to make an episode about this system of automatic wage indexation.
Yeah my girlfriend lived there and told me about that wage indexation. I’ve always wondered why that wasn’t a thing ever since I was a young child. Especially in the UK and USA
That sounds brilliant. I'm shocked at how that came to be passed into law...
This system would have meant that doctors wouldn't have started striking which would have saved the government >£2bn in strike cover and saved the public thousands of cancelled appointments
@@D-X-rt5qd After the First World War, the situation of the working class in Belgium was very bad: in July 1920, Belgian prices had increased by 236% compared to 1914 (the reference year of the first NICP: National Consumer Price Index). More than half of the income went to food, many families had lost one or more breadwinners during the war, etc. Immediately after the armistice, spontaneous strikes broke out in vital industrial sectors such as coal mines and metal companies. In the first seven months of 1919 alone, the labor inspectorate registered 733 strikes. The main demands were a 100% wage increase, shorter working hours (the 8-hour working day), a minimum wage and trade union recognition. These strikes and the threat of revolution made the bourgeoisie willing to make concessions to secure its position as the ruling class. The system has of course undergone some changes in those hundred years, but it still works. In 2023, wages in Belgium increased by more than 10% and the central bank expects an increase of 3.5% for 2024.
@@lidlllTTTTTIndeed, the cost of social unrest is usually higher than the cost of fair wages.
This channel is one of the only online sources of clear explanation of real life economics - Good to have you back Gary
From a very far left point of view. Agree with a lot of what he says but there is a lot of bias goin on
@@eatmaishortzz given that what he says is correct then the bias merely reflects that something the opposite of what is going on in the economy needs to happen before things get very seriously out of hand.
Houses are definitely falling in prices in the most bubbly areas
@@eatmaishortzz "a very far left perspective" .... This is inaccurate and completely clownish statement. Please come back when you have read the basics of political terminology...... Some of his opinions were considered centrist or family conservatism back in the 1960s
Centrist in the 1960s. Keep up old boy. I think it’s you who needs to a refresher. lol you leftists never have any argument that can’t be disintegrated with a bottle top of water. Now go wash your hair, your pink dye is fading.
You have my full support. I have been robbed of the life I was promised. I can't afford a house and I can't afford a family. I feel politically motivated but I know that no party will help. The deteriorating of our entire society is happening in front of our eyes. I see and feel it everyday.
but apparently you will be happy owning nothing
Own nothing and be happy
The economy has been recked by the state why peoples keep thinking state will save them? All politicians do is to disrupt the economy everytime they try to fix it. Politicians are not the solution.
How dare they
Robbed of the life you were promised / LOL really funny . Let me tell you some thing , In 1969 I tried to buy a house 4 years later I was still trying ,and sick of going down on my knees in banks , building soc , Councils , because of low income no one would lend me money . Then eventually a council did a Labour run council . What I did not know was they ripped me off big time I was paying 6,5% interest to them on the principal loan amount , in the general market it was only 4% , so you can see how they screwed me . *8 years later with a good pay on time i still had trouble getting a new mortgage, until I paid a under the table cash payment to an insurance broker . It was not until my third house I got a good deal . The thing is mate you are under the impression it was easy for people years ago , it was not only if you had mummy and daddy lending you dosh pretty much like it is now . No one robs you of your dream ,it just does not come easy ,stop expecting parties and people to help you, help you self .
Gary, firstly well done for being basically the only person clearly and succinctly making these points. You say at the end though that this is a depressing message for the end of the year, and it is. I think quite a few of us are here because it’s refreshing to hear what we basically already know from someone with a platform and the potential to break through. What is missing is the path forwards. I personally would love to hear about the policies we should be advocating for and what positive effects they would have. If we want to create momentum for positive change, we’re going to come up against massive resistance from people with lots of resources some of whom literally own propaganda networks. It would be great see some videos that can arm us to have these discussions and get out there to push back.
I wonder if reducing the work week can drive reductions in inequality
He makes some good points ,but he knows very little ,just another left wing it's the rich bitching squirt. For a start property prices are high because of demand fuelled by mass immigration some thing the MSM will not admit to , neither will he . At the turn of the century cheap goods flooded in from China this caused a drop in the cost of living ,and money poured into gov coffers ,giving them more to spend on welfare ,it was not all that BS about Gordon being a great chancellor. Thing is politicians lie about every thing . Now there are no more cheap goods only at the lower end . We have little manufacturing real wealth come from production not tax , Not one government since HW has tried to improve manufacturing , until we have some thing to sell we are screwed
So pleased you're back! I find your explanations easy to understand. Even if they're depressing, it's better to have an idea of what we're facing. Thank you
Rory Stewart gave a shout out to your forthcoming book Gary on The Rest is Politics Podcast.
Rory Stewart is a hypocrite Tory, he was part of the problem - go and look at his voting record when he was an MP.
@@Skylark_Jones which makes his shout out for Garys book (which he had an advance copy of) all the more interesting. I suspect if you are thinking critically, plenty of Tory MPs voting records are going to be questionable given the last 13 years.
Great to hear from you again! Unfortunately when I look at what the media did to Corbyn, I fear that any alternative party looking to redistribute wealth, would have a big hurdle to jump over. Keep getting the message out there!
Agree that the media pushes a right-wing agenda and targeted JC.
Welcome back, Gary, and thank you for your message. Although it's depressing as hell, fore-warned is fore-armed. I can see what you're saying coming true, and I've felt inequality and extremism has been growing since 2001, and accelerated in the UK since 2016. The problem is, something drastic has to happen to reverse these trends, as the political establishment aren't going to change course, no matter who is in power. Public school boys have a vested interest in keeping themselves and their cronies happy. The recent political upheavals and the policies being drawn up just show you how little they care about the electorate. I don't know what it's going to take to turn things around; the last time inequality and extremism were reduced (at least in the UK) was after World War II when more social policies were introduced and living standards began to increase.
We need to go back to that mindset from after ww2
100% agree about being forewarned and forearmed. Chose where you live carefully in the 2020s. Most of our options become much more limited after this. It'll just take a macro issue to collapse much of what we have at this point.
Great stuff Gary, good to see you back. We need a truly global movement to counter the ultra rich!
Yes, but peasants revolts don't usually end well :(
@@robswan5765wonder what happens when they don’t need actual troops or police? Ai & robotics will have it covered in about 5 years - time enough for Labour to do nothing. & be replaced by the new resurgent far right…
We had one. It was the Occupy movement, which was swiftly co-opted and morphed into the culture wars of oppression and victimhood that we see today.
I wonder what would happen if millions of people could be persuaded to cancel their direct debits for council tax and all the utilities......
gibbions Why do you think we need to counter the ultra rich ?
Finally, someone who knows what they are talking about explaining everything
Apart from how to do something about it. That will only happen with direct, physical resistance. That will mean political prisoners, hunger strikes and the like.
Judging by by the look of his kitchen, he's not made any money out of it.😀
@@anthonyferris8912 He made his money and kept it because he's intelligent enough not to spend it on crap no one needs to impress morons.
A bit like me then and now I'm loaded.
Your content is top notch. You're like the economics Robin Hood - spy on the rich and equip the poor with info so as to empower themselves. Keep up the good work....
Please post more often. It's incredible information you are sharing with all of us.
Good to see you back Gary. I'm really interested to hear more about these alternative solutions. Taxing the rich is of course the obvious choice but are there different ways to do this or present this. And are there other alternatives. I'd also be really interested to hear your views on the role and significance of national debt and of investment on the national economy, as I think both these are areas which are widely misunderstood and widely misrepresented by our media. Would you consider making videos on these topics?
The trouble for us / Garry is that the problem is so simple to articulate that it's hard to sustain its volume. The large media outlets, can constantly find new outrage bait because a Gary Lineker tweet can become a two day news story. Anyone think the Daily Mail wants its middle class readers to know they and their children are being slowly fleeced? Far better for them to chunter on about some cultural thing that makes you react emotionally. It's so depressing to watch a large portion of the country fall for a three card monty level trick over and over again.
Spot on. The right wing media has so much to answer for while funding for state education is squeezed more and more, making it easier to distract and mislead the electorate. Gary's vision of a move towards far right politics is terrifying. It will see the worst kind of rabble rousing demagogues rising to the fore. Looking at the current crop of cabinet members, it has been happening for some time.
I certainly agree that those in power have not only weaponised the overwhelming majority of peoples emotions against both the individuals themselves & the functioning of society itself, but have honed it over the course of the last century +. Some demographics having already started from the point of low/er intelligence - higher emotional reactions, which has spread through the human form of osmosis that naturally occurs. Edit: "low/er intelligence" as I had initially typed it would be better stated as; *low/er rationality / objectivity*
It's not in mainstream media's interest to promote this story. The imaginary money dumped on them indirectly is what keeps it rolling since people stopped paying for newspapers, and tv in steady decline since the birth of the internet, bleeding advertising money (among other factors). The entire media + social media apparatus is focused now on distracting people from important topics, often amplifying discord, polarising, redirecting anger from politicians and billionaires to your neighbour next door, making them the villain for voting for the wrong banner that doesn't actually change anything important besides the theme of the non stop violation we ants receive.
It seems to me that the cost of living for the poor is needlessly the high cost of a home , the parasitic nature of investment banking including through lending has become a barometer for growth when intact it is only reflecting growth in population and all the knock on effects . Population growth has been a political goal to allow the global rich to gain further wealth when in reality higher living standards should be the growth we should all be aiming for . The banks should have been allowed to suffer lost income through COVID rather than allowed to gather more debt from the people ....
@@Mandanara Well said.
Great to see you back. Looking forward to reading your book in March.
We are the good guys and we need to stand together. If we grow the numbers of this channel to a size comparable to TV audience figures for BBC news or readership numbers of Murdoch tabloids, then we will be highly representative of UK society, i.e. harder to ignore. So I am spreading Gary’s channel to as many people as I can.
Yeah, you got a good shout out from Rory! Nice work. Glad to see you back on KZhead
Falling inflation doesn’t mean prices drop. Just that it doesn’t go up as fast.
It’s worse than that. It’s relative to the same period in the previous years price rises. So say prices raised 10% and the next year they raise by 5% there is just over 15% in 2 years so when your pay only goes up a little bit your much worse off.
@@davideyres955they will use exactly this formula to give much lower increase to those on fixed income & benefits. Very bad.
That's right, thank you, Lesley. Yet people have actually been told this lie and sucked it in, hook, line and sinker! The only way for people to have disposible incomes again is for incomes to go up faster than inflation. But we currently have a government who are dead against that!
And they speak of inflation like it is not the deliberate devaluation of currency , they speak of it being due to oil or gas or electricity or micro chip , anything but the creation of billions, trillions of new debt
@@dolphine675 I think you are perfectly correct, Dolphine. Ultimately, economics all just a debt of either one kind or another, and money or wealth is merely a measurement of debt. Don't you think? Albeit somewhat challenging to explain.
Good to see back Gary. I think the economy is becoming a big game of monopoly, if you go round and round the board and don't buy any property you end up paying rent every time you throw the dice,and land on a different square, And as we all know. at the end of the game the winners are those who accumlated the most property. In the real life game of monopoly the winners, the big property owners will be giant corporations who will most likely will not be British, but those that for tax reasons be based abroad
Well, it's only one side of the equation. Ultimately, wealth in the country comes from work, so it's us: ordinary workers, who produce it, not the rich who own the asset. Now the trick happens, as Gary points out, on the wealth transfer mechanism. The game is rigged against us by the government as we pay enormous taxes on our work, while asset owners suck all what's left without paying anything. Therefore, if we only make the tax system proportionate for everyone, we would make things much better and fairer. Now it's not possible to tweak the income tax, as rich usually don't pay it. What's left is VAT and wealth tax. VAT affects consumption and it's fair to the extent of how much people consume. However, as far as wealthy consume significantly more than poor, they accumulate even more than that. This is why Gary talks about a tax on the accumulated wealth. Such tax exist in many different countries and it seems that the main reason it doesn't exist in the UK is that elites that rule the country are in fact "the rich" who would be mostly affected by such tax, so introducing fairer taxation is against their interest.
Thanks Gary .. You hit the nail on the head..
Hats off to you Gary as you are always the sober judge in the court room. Labour’s vague mission of achieving the fastest growing rate of growth in the G8 is laughable. If Labour provides growth that just ends up boasting living standards of the wealthiest in society than inequality will remain the same.
Bingo. You get it 👍 We cannot vote our way out of this mess. Both party's are the problem.
Indeed, it's looking like inequality will continue to increase, not merely remain the same.
@@paulgibbons2320 but by not voting you ensure the continuation of what we have....... depressing isn't it!
@@skrich9690 it can only be changed by a revolutionary act.
@@paulgibbons2320 Revolutionary, read, the elite needs a reason to be afraid of us, the people, again, so that they don't (bleep) with us. Not a load of peaceful protests that not only falls on deaf ears, but only encourages even more laws to protect the elite from being even slightly irritated by the unwashed masses protesting against the elites ongoing actions against them. (Something more along the lines of succeeding where Guy Fawkes failed perhaps?)
Welcome back Gary, I have been looking forward to your insights. Happy new year, good luck with your book launch
Thank you. You have supporters and people willing to learn from all over the world. We are learning now from Sweden. Please continue and please continue sharing more light on the economy.
Thanks Gary, you deliver another excellent analysis! Your output should be headline news in mainstream media. It’s worth pointing out another effect of the greed that has driven the economy, which is poverty in old age as a result of the new generation of graduate workers starting with debt, living with debt, and unable to accrue pensionable assets. We desperately need an alternative to the inept, ineffectual, or malicious options in our politics.
Love the honesty and simplicity of the setting here ❤
Thank you Gary for your knowledge and insight. Its good to see you back. I have been following your videos and can see you have captured a real understanding of what is happening and the trajectories. I lived in London until 2014. I miss London. I grew up in London and had to leave because renting in London became too expensive. I was living in a keyworker rented property and the rent soared phenomenally and with the cost of living, it became too much. London is now the home of traders, bankers and oligarchs. I was talking to a young ITU nurse in a central London hospital just before Christmas who can hardly afford to live. What the Tories have done to the UK goes beyond criminal. They are being parasitical upon the nation, and sadly, I don't believe Starmer will do much to help the ordinary working people. I have ordered your book and pleased that you have published your insights in word as well as by video.
In these uncertain times, it's more important than ever to have a solid understanding of how to manage your finances, invest wisely and navigate economic downturns. But my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy.
it might be difficult finding the next apple within the tech stock sector, maybe look outside of tech stocks
This is why I've entrusted a fiduciary with my investmnt decisions. Many underestimate advisors until emotions lead to losses. My advisor crafted a tailored strategy aligning with my long-term goals, guiding entry and exit points for the equities I focus on. This has grown my portfolio to over $850k. My personal best so far
@@fabianhegemann9911 Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
@@JoseLuis-zn5tb Actually its a Lady. Yes my go to person is a 'MARY TERESE SINGH'. So easy and compassionate Lady. You should take a look at her work.
@@fabianhegemann9911Thank you for sharing. it was easy to find her, then I scheduled a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
This channel is huge. I hope that it continues to grow this year. We need more people to discuss economics!
The problem is we need solutions
There was A plan, a really good start - it was called the Labour 2017 'For The Many Not The Few' Manifesto. Even though it's over 5 years old now it still presents the kind of radical, nationwide policy ideas that we need to serious talk about and implement for the health of this country. We need to restrengthen the public sector, and present clear long term thinking about the state of our economy.
@@dog-ez2nu but its not on the table currently sadly. No ones offering it
lol, No matter which side of the same coin in power, the result is the same. It's a problem for the under class, not the beneficiaries. What is being seen is all part of the plan. The return of feudalism.
@@jamespaul6315Corbyn’s radical ideas were clearly rejected by the UK electorate last time… Can Labour find a toned down version that will be more acceptable? I know the Tories are in a right mess at the moment, but how far can Labour push their luck?
@@stevenrix7024 it was corbyn who was the problem. Not his ideas, but his pro russia, anti nuke and anti nato stance were not good for a leader
Thank you so much Gary, for exposing the thruth. Keep up the amazing work you do. I do my best to educate those around me!!
Thanks Gary. Keep supplying your simple messages and analysis. It enables viewers to explain your views to friends and family... 👍HNY ♥️
Am 52 a dad of 2 and a renter, I have always worked for charities and my rent is about half of my income, the reality is that my life is just going to get worse and worse. We need to bring this money back into the economy the rich starve us all and then society gets worse. But still great to have you back dude!!
tomcooksound Who are these "rich" you talk about. Do you know any or are you just using the term rich as a general metaphor for somebody who is more wealthy than you. It reminds me of the Nazis when they refered to anybody not of their ilk as being a jewish, like a catch all narrative
@andypicken7848 just as income tax is done progressively in the UK vs a flat tax in Bulgaria, rich can be defined progressively, such that eg it starts at £1m liquid net worth without primary residence, and goes up from there. Anyone with say £10m+ in LNW is "super rich".
@@andypicken7848 as Gary not just explained this to you Are you not quite with it
@@andypicken7848 haha i mean people who have over 2 million in assets or the bank, I think quoting Nazis is hilarious, this is a comment on a youtube video not a national political party!!!!
@andypicken7848 you knew exactly what he meant, your comment was uncalled for
Professor of Geography Danny Dorling and other academics are finding that in rich modern economy Britain life expectancy is now falling, something unheard of in a modern western European country. Infant mortality is rising, as is excess deaths - and all this pre-dates the covid pandemic. Let that sink in.
The young are dying. All age groups have excess death rates . But young men18-45 are dying in huge numbers. Young men do not normally die. 28,000 gone in first 34weesk of 2023.
@@ashleylaw I stumbled across Danny Dorling's channel - he talks about rising inequality in Britain and its effects on society. It is absolutely appalling what this govt's harsh austerity cuts are doing to the people of Britain.
It's worse than that children's height is falling, we live in a country where almost 20% of children are living in food poverty. Its not just some shock stat, children are quite literally provided with worse nourishment in the UK post the coalition gov / austerity and its not getting better. There was a brief increase due to covid where people were home and assumedly furlough and excess cash from reduced spending meant children got better food. But thats already reversing now its back to business as usual and increasing inequality.
@@Skylark_JonesI'll check it out. Thanks
@@Skylark_Jones If you have time ? Look out Boris Johnson speech to the UN when he was PM. Couple of years ago now I think. He lays it all out. I know what comes next. I was told the in 2010. On time on target no matter the faces on your TV.
Putting the wealth transfers aside, isn't the more systemic problem that we're taxing income from labour too highly and income/appreciation from assets owned not enough? I'd like to hear your thoughts on something like land value taxes because it's clear that land value in the UK has become a main driver of many of these living standards issues.
Thank you for talking and continuing a conversation that needs to be discussed with an intent to cause a positive change
So to sum up in politics, as long as people continue to be distracted by the rhetoric of immigration, but there are no policies that directly tackle wealth inequality, then we will search blindly for a solution that was right in front of our eyes all along. It’s incredible, isn’t it, how those parties who shout the loudest about immigration but will not talk about economics? (Except for the old trope of “trickle down economics”.) Because in practice they only support the rich, and sit very contentedly with wealth inequality. You/We are being conned!
Immigration is the cause of the inequality in the first place. Labour surplus reduces wages. Companies literally use immigrant labour as strikebreakers. There are only so many houses that can be built in a year so rents go up. The rich own government bonds so taxing them more doesn’t work, they just get it back as dividends. Hence you lower taxes so at least they have to spend money here.
@@crown9413 I think increased immigration is only one outcome of inequality. Thatcher decided after defeating the miners that she was justified in breaking up all the major trade unions even if it meant decimating the country's manufacturing industries and privatising the big public utilities.......that was market economics after all. The unions were the big driver of decent wages and working conditions - once they were gone it became a race to the bottom in terms of pay and conditions and the rich/tories weaponised cheap foreign labour to fuel inequality.
@@skrich9690 Manufacturing was already on it's way out, it makes no sense to manufacture something here when you can do it vastly cheaper in other countries where they have the natural resources to do it more competitively than us. We just make a loss and we the taxpayer has to subsidize it. Unions were not a big driver. They just pass on the costs to the consumer. You might get higher wages but the cost of living was even higher. And starting a small buisiness is impossible which is exactly what the rich want.
@@crown9413One problem with sending manufacturing overseas is that we make ourselves dependent on the other countries who do our manufacturing. We saw the issue with this during the pandemic when China threatened to stop exporting medications and other necessities. They DID slow down the export of many goods, including things like parts for water treatment plants (my husband works for a water treatment facility company). Items that formerly took 1 to 2 weeks now take 6 months to a year to receive. Another problem is national security; without a manufacturing base in country, we're dependent on other countries to manufacture weapons, and what happens if we run afoul with them politically? They aren't going to send us weapons if we're at war or close to it. The Pentagon has been making noises about going to war with China - think about the repercussions of that! Another problem is that the best working class jobs don't exist anymore. When most working class jobs are server jobs, what does that mean for the future?
Manufacturing on its way Out?? Tell that to the Germans who manufacture great cars and all manner of white goods. Or have you forgotten that?
A very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year to you Gary - and thank you for explaining so much (and doing it so clearly) for 2023. BTW - Rory Stewart gave your book some very high praise on The Rest is Politics. He said it was essential reading. I look forward to seeing for myself a bit later in January. 😀
Thanks Gary. Happy new year! I have a love/hate relationship with your videos. I love that someone with a great depth of understanding of the economy can tell it like it is and recommend a solution to the problems. I hate the impotent rage that comes with knowing that the political class has no interest in solving those problems. I’ve preordered your book but I think I’ll need to spread it out for my own mental health.
I finally understand economics! Thank you Gary.
Thank you Gary for the video, your book, and all the hard work you put in educating people, make this youtube channel and spread awareness about this topics. Have a happy new year!
House prices deserve more depth. You can't look at them without also looking at the volume of sales to properly understand the impact on things like GDP. We calculate GDP monetarily, so it's more a measure of liquidity (cash changing hands) than it is of actual productivity (creating stuff of actual utility value).
We need to stop being focussed on GDP altogether imo, it's almost totally irrelevant for reasons such as you one you point out, yet everyone puts such importance on it. Labour could make the country a significantly better place to live in while dropping GDP by 3%. And they'd be hounded out of government for it.
Hello 👋🏽 Gary. Great to see a new video from you. Looking forward to buying and reading your book 📖 Happy new year! I hope this is a great one for you. Best regards, Phupinder
Thank you for explaining things in such an easy to understand way, I enjoyed your post, thank you.
Welcome back, thanks again Gary, certainly the political parties refusal to address the inequality at the polls means we have a crises in democracy. You're absolutely correct about the importance in explaining the truth of the markets and the role government plays in moving the money from the public purse to the wealthy. We only have morality to keep humanity afloat and if this is threatened everyday by a repeated fall in our living standards then people will act desperate towards each other in order to survive while the rich and wealthy will continue to look towards the horizon.
Cheers Gary you're confirming everything i was feeling about life in Britain. Youve reset my priorities to get more of my mortgage paid off today too.
So well informed Gary and this is why the status quo will continue under Labour if they win next election because they will not challenge the fundamental root cause of these issues! Spot on about house price movements as lots of commentators predicting massive crash like 2008/2009 but politicians and estate agents/banks are already prioritising activity to mitigate this happening!
It will be worse under labour because they will splurge money on things they think will keep them in power. We saw it last time with things like working tax credits. Both major parties are incompetent with government finances. Sad state of the country. Maybe they are planning a power shift to rule by classes with CBDCs and the extra powers through things like the online safety bill.
Do you think the Conservatives will "challenge the fundamental root cause of the issue"?
Conservatives pull us further to the right, and liberals (centrists) allow them to do it. Exact same thing had happened in Australia, with the Labor party promising to keep conservative party policies. Thanks Murdoch
Great to have you back Garry. Missed you & your expertise. 🎉😊😊
Thanks for the clarity you provide, Gary!
Great to have you back Gary! Video is spot on as always. If we take the political scene ever shifting to the right to its natural conclusion then it inevitably leads to large scale wars where the rich get richer once again. We need to be the light in this world continuing to show that there is another way. I'd love to see you on Novara again soon if you have the time :)
I'd love to listen to your take on the recent changes in Argentina. Sure, not your area of expertise, but still interesting if you could take a look at the numbers and analyze it.
Thank you for the update, much appreciated.
Thank you Gary 😊 happy and prosperous new year 😊😊
Excellent Gary. Nice and simple so my mum can understand it. 👍
Great analysis Gary : Inequality > Debt > Poverty > Recession > Instability.....
Nice to have you back Gary and great to see you’re growing the channel. Some suggestions: visuals (e.g graphics/charts) would really help supplement your verbal analysis and explain things accessibly, especially to people like me with minimal economics background. Also, have you considered releasing these videos in audio podcast format? Big love ❤✌️
Thanks for the update Gary
Nice Gary, keep on keeping on. Possibility of using this channel as a platform for those spreading a positive narrative to solve these issues? Would be great to see more discussions on here. All the best!
Echoes of Prof Mark Blyth’s piece called Global Trumpism and Prof Danny Dorling’s outlook on inequality here in the UK.
Great video Gary, very clear message. Thank you.
Good to have you back sir. Greetings from USA and a productive new year to us all.
Over here in Ireland, institutional investors (pension funds, investment vehicles etc) have bought up vast amounts of housing
That's super interesting, I've been predicting for a while that this would happen - rents are up massively while house prices stall due to higher rates. This creates a huge opportunity for the massively cashed up rich to buy housing themselves via companies.
@@garyseconomics So, Gary, do you reckon when Labour get in next year policy will keep moving to the right in spite of what the electorate expect from them? Hope so as it should herald a resurgence of SNP support in the Scottish elections in two years time.
@@beachcomber1able it's not likely to be to the right of the current conservative government, but i also can't see them doing anything serious to reduce inequality (within an environment where it is rapidly increasing). As such I can't see them meaningfully improving living standards, which means further discontent is nearly certain.
@@garyseconomics My opinion exactly! Happy New Year to you. 🥳 🥂
People in uk can't afford rent, so living in vans.
Thanks for doing this.
God Bless You Gary !!
If only the mainstream media and the opposition parties could get this across to the electorate! Excellent work👌
How do you get a Government to introduce policy to balance tax take from wealth and income when that Government would be pilloried by the press and lobbied by the super-rich class. How do you think markets would react to such policies? Glad to see you back Gary and looking forward to your insights.
That’s the big questions👍 I fear until all countries around the globe adopt the same tax rates on wealth then it will continue because they just move their money offshore.
@@timwoodger7896 tricky, because there are plenty of less affluent countries and places that would be more than happy to welcome the super-rich who leave UK. Having said that, Nordic countries seem to do OK and they have more wealth equality.
yeah, last time it took two world wars to shift status quo, can't imagine scenario that would organically shift present status quo without world going totally bonkers
It's actually very simple. 60% of UK wealth is land value according to the ONS, we can tax that (via land value tax) without hurting productive business, create affordable housing and end boom and bust, but neither the Tories or Labour are willing to do that as they are afraid of hitting middle class homeowners paper equity so we continue to punish workers and productive businesses alike and let the parastic landlords and corporate landowners and other such rent seekers off the hook.
@@dellwright1407 I feel like this is a lie used by the media and wealthy to scare the public from voting for these types of policies. Yes the wealthy can move their cash offshore, but they can’t move the physical assets themselves. Whether they own residential or commercial property or shares in UK companies etc. The asset would still be physically based here and so a Government could still find a way to tax the asset owner to help re-distribute the wealth and thus reduce inequality. “Oh but then the wealthy might just decide to sell their UK assets and buy assets overseas” Great; that means some less wealthy people in the UK can now purchase the income producing asset and thus help reduce inequality.
House prices and houses could become wild if your prediction becomes true. Just think; empty piles of bricks are considered more “economically” valuable than companies, businesses, not for profits and human decencies (like feeding people, and sheltering them). It’s like Easter island with the stone heads that were still being made as their society ended; but for us it’s crappy 80’s flats, semi’s and mock Tudor
We are already there posh twats in ch4 bidding 400k for a ex council flat
Me and my brother screaming at the telly it’s a council flat it’s a council flat we sat in them smoking bowl it’s a council flat.
Fantastic to have you back Gary.
Appreciate what you’re doing. Keep spreading the knowledge.
How is it going to be possible to deal with the tech companies extracting so much wealth? It would be great if you could get Yanis Varoufakis on to talk about Techno-feudalism.
Tech companies are the easiest thing we can deal with. Their only commodity is our attention. The minute we stop giving them our attention they vanish. Delete the apps, change your phone, use Tails, use a good VPN. Then they have nothing.
VPNs _ARE_ tech. companies and they know everything you do on their VPN. There is _NO_ provacy on the Internet - just the way it is. @@syncopatedsteve
Just read Apple has larger market cap than entire U.K. market
@@syncopatedsteve it might be easy for individuals, however with societies at large it is not so simple anymore, as these platforms are so integrated in the professional and daily lives of so many. imho, these things should never have been allowed to stay private. large scale, fast communication is as essential to a functioning society as water, energy and housing are.
we need o talk to Ireland to stop letting them get away with the tax evasion.
Hi Gary great video as always. I'd personally love to see a video from yourself solely focused the actual reality of the impact immigration has on the economy supported by the evidence available to hopefully give a concrete push back against the usual narrative that high immigration is contributing towards falling living standards. I personally very much doubt that immigration has anything to do with the current system failings and it seems you also don't see it as a contributing factor but having a video with clear evidence to refute the claim I think would be a very valuable thing to have.
I've been away for 6 months to .so clade to be out of all this stuff.nice to you back.happy new year
Great video. Thanks for sharing your wisdom 👏
Same thing is happening in all western countries. Society is in a down cycle, tumultuous times ahead then out of it will come peace. This system is too far gone. too much wealth has been amassed by people who others see as undeserving, and its almost impossible through hard work to achieve a normal life without the 'bank of mum and dad' and even then one financial misstep and you are toast. Media and government refuse to acknowledge the problem, corporations run the show, and they are going to keep kicking the can wayyyy past the point of dystopia. The west is entering a new dark age and the second/third world countries are about to get their pick of millions of educated western immigrants if they want them.
Importing millions of indo/Negro migrants will change countries to second/third world, no need to move 😂
This is so true. House price rises are such that we can't afford to "trade up" slightly ahead of retirement (i just mean trade up on area, not house size or quality) even though we're now at the point we would really like to, need to even due to my wife's health we badly need a bungalow. So here we are, pushing fifty and still looking to mum and dad, now elderly, for loans and such. Humiliating. Of course, we are lucky to have a house at all so if need be we stay put and live with the fact we don't have a living room cos it's now a bedroom, and my wife doesn't get to use the upstairs half of the house. We *could* be freeing this house up for a new young family who need to live near a choice of half decent schools, instead we're basically taking up space on the lowest rung of the ladder with little chance of changing our situation until our entire senior generation has died and we've got some inheritance to make use of which is, to put it mildly, a ****ing grisly way to plan a life.
Thank you, Gary, so please tell me about poor pensioners who have no home of their own? who rent what will happen to them as rent rises continue on the up? I have a sneaky suspension that there will be a massive elderly person homeless situation, and the far right news papers and Parliament will be campaigning for a return of the work houses for the unemployed ,elderly and disabled. And if you do one thing, just one Learn critical thinking skills, People And share the information with all your friends and see if they will listen? Have meaningful conversations about making our communities a better, more inclusive place to live . And don't read the papers, and don't look at anything negative, eg, the news.. It's all propaganda to make us feel hopeless, angry, and hateful of our fellow man.. Sending positive vibrations and love to you, Gary, and happy new year too all who read this message. Love is the answer, too, everything ♥️ ..
It is a great way to look at it and quite frankly, you would expect the top economists and bankers and officials in government to know this. It almost as if they want this all to happen..
One thing Gary doesn't focus on in his analysis is the part that WAR plays. (I hope I'm wrong, but I have a horrible feeling that the professional political class isn't by any means averse to a spot of prolonged major armed conflict at a time such as this - notwithstanding the wide scale death and misery it causes.)
Glad to have you back , mate. Looking forward to your book. Hope it smashes it. Have a great New Year Big love from Bangkok
Great that you're back
It's so refreshing to hear someone speak about issues like the economy and living standards who hasnt't got some agenda to push, just spitting facts. Thank you Gary.
Well he is pushing an agenda he is left wing
Glad to have you back, Gary. A very welcome summary and forecast; short of a meaningful new movement (as you suggest) I'll be voting Green for the first time as the only remotely proactive choice I can stomach. My logic is simply this: improving the outlook for the environment requires significant degrowth, degrowth requires dialing back on Neoliberalism and by extension a slowing of financial inequality.
that's the same as voting for the tories. look up FPTP - green have no chance of gaining actual power. You can only vote for Labour and hope for change, its 200% not happening any other way.
As for me i am sharing this channel with each and every young person that will listen!!!
Thanks again for excellent video.
Interestingly, there was a ward in Solihull, West Mids, that was neglected by both Labour and Cons at a local level. It voted something like 80% BNP. It now votes around the same for the Green Party.
Nice analysis - I fear you may be spot on. A lot of good logic and reasoning here, I have had similar thoughts about the future. As soon as rates are cut, which is likely next year, we will see a flood of investment into an already tight market. It will be a continuation of the mania and is perhaps more indicative of a "managed hyperinflation". The wealthy want assets and they know money will become less valuable - putting cash into physical assets is the safest play during times like these and the wealthy are all about managing their wealth in a low risk manner. The market has also stagnated - boomers don't want to leave their homes putting a tight squeeze on supply - any tiny increase in sentiment/ drop in rates will result in further house price increases. The system has become unstable where we are on a slippery slope of decline (so it appears). Likely / largely driven by demographics & large debts. Large debts will necessitate further devaluation.
There won't be hyperinflation. Because inflation is being driven primarily by energy costs, not consumerist demand. Unless you think of food and energy expense as consumerism, which it isn't.
@@uniteddreamer You're correct we won't see hyperinflation in the traditional sense hence why I used the term "managed hyperinflation". By this I believe we will see a prolonged period of higher than average inflation. Through the base effect / compounding this can devalue currency very quickly over a period of 5-10 years, perhaps not the 1-2 years you see in other hyperinflation examples. You don't consider food a part of consumption? I'm quite sure people eat every day... Also consumerist demand is still elevated whilst CPI has seen near record highs. I think we may see a repeat of the 1970s... waves of inflation / interest rate hikes. Commodities are booming (increasing prices for everything) and China is slowing down due to economic issues - this will result in long term supply chain issues as everything is "on/re-shored". Anyway I suppose time will tell.
@@__Wanderer ok to clarify. I guess you could call food consumption a form of consumerism, but high interest rates aren't exactly an acceptable remedy if all it does is push for prices up for what we all need to survive. Which is what higher interest rates themselves will do, paradoxically... Although I take your point about underlying cost increases of consumer goods but I don't see consumer goods demand (non essentials) being the primary driver.
I kind of agree with the rest of your points if by changing demographics, you mean an aging population. It's hard to tell these days what people really mean by that word!
@@uniteddreamer indeed an aging population is what i meant :)
Great to see you back Gary!! Something I do want to pick more on is the narrative that house prices will rise from 2024 onwards? Is there an assumption that many c.1.5m homeowners who are expected to come off their fixed rates next year (2024) will automatically be able to afford it despite falling living standards etc? Surely you'd expect to see a rather decent pullback (maybe 5-10%-ish) before thing start to go sideways then rise again?
HAPPY NEW YEAR GARY. GOD BLESS YOU MATE.
How much, if at all, is the UK economy being impacted by the growing middle classes in developing countries and the general shift to a "multi-polar world order" if you don't mind the term?
I agree with your analysis, but what about the wider context of the decline of globalisation and the rise of the BRICS nations as an alternative to the US based system? These are going to have a fundamental impact on the UK as we discover that in order to buy our goods from China and other manufacturing countries we'll have to actually have something tangible to sell back to them instead of just printing money.
This worried me 40 years ago with Thatchernomics that involved closing closing mines, steelworks, shipyards and heavy industry... You still need to trade tangible shit, can't just rely on city traders, high finance and service industries which might look great on paper but leads to mass unemployment and weakens our trading portfolio, which needs to be diverse... Whilst at the same time constantly cutting back on education and vocational training.. It was all about short term gains and the gentrification / clean hands image of the UK.
Gary is an expert on the economy describing the relationships between policy and markets, and the trend of impoverishment of the middle and lower classes. He's doing this in terms that the general public can understand, so we can make informed choices about the policies we want in future. In our current media and political environments, it's hard to find the quality of information that Gary is providing in language that's meaningful to the average person. I don't believe Gary is motivated by money or power, but out of compassion for the people whose quality of life and prospects are being undeservedly degraded. He is doing us a great service. I hope he receives widespread recognition. As better informed citizens, we must defend our interests and demand policies that redress this manufactured dilution of our quality of life. The priviledged minority must not be allowed to suck up our assets and security unchecked. I look forward to more videos, podcasts and articles from Gary and have preordered his book.
It’s great to see you back, I appreciate your content, I make sure to share. It’s not looking great, but still, I wish a Happy and prosperous New Year 2024. 🎉
Keep up the great work Gary ....I'm with you .
Thanks for this Gary. Ive been watching your videos lately, and it seems like you understand the economic fundamentals really well. Others have been talking about these concepts of money moving to assets for a long time but from the angle of telling people how to get rich, ie people like Robert Kiyosaki with his 'Poor Dad Rich Dad' book. These kind of people regard people who do jobs for a living with total contempt which is so small minded and bleak. We all need to wake up try and make a more positive world before the extremists rise again. Keep them coming Gary
Great to have you back mate ❤
Thanks Gary. ❤
We've been waiting
Thank you for your videos. They have lit quite a few lightbulbs in my head. I have a question/ video request: I would like to know how you see the possibility of making some money with investments for "normal" people. Obviously the rich reap the bulk of gain on the finalcial markets, and so putting our money in there means increasing the inequality level even more. In addition, going with the market basically means thriving in a situation where the poorest people are hit the most (betting that the stardards of living will go down and people will be forced to pay even more to fulfill their needs, for example). So what is a decent person to do? I am managing to save a bit of money. I don't have enough to buy a house in cash and nobody will ever give me a loan (and if they do, it's going to be at extortionate rates, so I'm not going to to go for it), and even if I did... I would rent it, hence exploiting some poor guy (perhaps less than someone else, but it's not feasible to rent a place for, say, -30% of the market price, at it will attract the wrong people and make you look dodgy). If I invest the money in the financial markets, I'll also be part of the problem and increase inequality... What am I to do? Sit on the money so that it gets eaten away by inflation? What is the moral alternative, if there is one?
The reason I make the videos I make, political videos rather than videos about trading (which is my profession and something that I'm much better at), is because I honestly think that ordinary people have no realistic hope here rather than political action. I know that people want individual actions, and, for those who want that, there's always Martin Lewis and the Bitcoin crowd. But, the way I see it, that's just day trading and changing our gas providers while the economy quickly collapses. It's deckchairs on the Titanic. The unfortunate truth is that collective political action is the only realistic chance here, and most other alternatives being sold (like day trading and Bitcoin) are in most cases frauds. If you want my personal investment tips though, I'm long everything - gold, property, and I've been building into stocks.
Personally I think if proper financial management and investing were taught to everybody in schools then there would be far less wealth inequality. Best thing you can do is learn to invest, make steady returns, and encourage your friends and family to do the same. Consider a stocks and shares LISA if you're saving for first home.
@@garyseconomics Are you aware of the recent changes to the Prevent strategy from the g-ment? The wording now classes being left wing as a t*rrorist ideology, limiting a lot of what you are suggesting. Do you have access to this info?
@@garyseconomics thank you for your reply, but i've must explain myself better. i am not after actual financial advice (if it wasn't off topic, i'd rather have a video in which you explain how to get better at financial learning and research). the way i see it is actually worse than what you are saying: at the moment, it is a game of musical chairs, but if it keeps going like this, i think everyone will lose. because of global warming, or because when inequality goes mad and it stays there for long enough, heads are going to roll, leterally. i agree with you 100% that the answer must be political: in italy, people got disillutioned with the "left" and simply remained at home. if you look at the last election's results, it's not that the right won: they had more or less the same amount of votes. it's the people that didn't want to vote for them didn't vote at all, for the most part, rather than voting for any opposition. now, until that opposition appears, what are we going to do? keep on playing the musical chairs and hope enough talking about what's going on will wake up some serious political alternative? by the way, if you want to add subtitles to your videos, I can translate them into italian. i don't think you have a script, but if you're interested there are easy work arounds for that. EDIT: subtitles by themselves will probably won't do much good. but youtube is rolling out the automatic dubbing, slowly but surely. and if you have a good written translation to begin with, it's going to help a lot when that feature will be available for everyone. ;) i wouldn't be surprised if it happens by the end of 2024, the way AI is progressing.
@@rudolphteperberry3888 not quite: i can't talk about everyone's country, but the way taxes are set up here, you need to have some *serious* money in the markets before you can actually see a big difference for you. i'm talking about 1 million or more, which is obviously much more than the average person can hope to have saved up with honest labour. that's another thing that financial "gurus" forget all the time: each country has its own tax laws, and you can't just assume that what works in london or in new york works everywhere, even if you actually invest in those markets (which is not a given, for many reasons)
Clear explanation focussing on main points.
Another fantastic video Gary
One thing to consider about the economy is this... A lot of people who immigrate from other countries to the UK to work tend to fill the low paid jobs "that people in the UK do not want to do". There is a reason that people in the UK do not want to do certain jobs. It is because it doesn't pay enough to live a good life in the UK. Take cleaning, carers and alike. All of these jobs are worthy jobs to have and are essential in the workforce. The problem is that if people are willing to be paid peanuts, then the employers will take advantage of that, so the problem of low wages continues.
low wages don't attract workers when the benefits aren't there.....unless they come from countries with lower wages. then there are benefits.
Can't be said enough that Labour are not serious about reducing inequality and it's a huge problem.
The Tories have and will openly continue to push austerity and killing off the people on the bottom rung. It's their number one priority. Put x here to vote CONservative
They're not Labour anymore..they're Tory lite..have been since Blair
Well the Tory's create inequality if I'm honest I wouldnt trust any political party if they realy cared there wouldn't be different parties they would join forces and actually do something to better this country rather than arguing amongst themselves.
I have never really said a video is garbage and commented about it but this one for sure deserves it.
What's wrong with it? Not saying I agree or disagree but I'm just wondering what makes it rubbish in your opinion?
@dazpatreg stuff like " I was right about this , I said this a year ago " he doesn't understand the reason why we have inflation, his answer just seems to be " money given to the rich during covid" when the reality is way more complex; food costs aren't higher because rich people are buying lots of it, energy costs aren't higher because rich people are using it all etc. He also says inflation will go below 2%, which is not happening in the UK any time soon, food inflation is at 9% and salary increases will make inflation much more sticky. He said a lot more horse shit without any way to prove it.
Very well produced video