👊 UFC 300 Full Card Prediction Breakdown 💥
Hey fight fans, welcome back to my channel! This Saturday’s UFC 300 is gearing up to be an epic showdown, perhaps one of the best cards in UFC history, and I'm here to break it all down for you. From the prelims to the main event, I'll give you a comprehensive analysis of each fighter, their stats, recent fight history, and my prediction based on a combination of data science models and fight analysis. Whether you're here to confirm your picks, avoid betting mistakes, or just for the thrill of the fight, I've got you covered!
📊 What I've Got for You:
- Statistical Analysis: I'll break down the numbers, offering a side-by-side comparison of striking, grappling, and overall fight IQ.
- Fight History Review: Understanding where they've been helps us predict where they're going. I'll look into recent performances that could influence the outcome.
- Data Science Predictions: I've crunched the numbers through 7 different prediction models, providing a weighted forecast that's more than just a gut feeling.
- Personal Picks: Combining hard data with the nuances of fighter styles and recent performances, I'll offer my own predictions for each fight. I combine qualitative and quantitative data to make highly accurate predictions, around 70% accurate on average!
This card is packed with potential, and whether you're here to fine-tune your bets, get a new perspective, or just ramp up your excitement for the event, I've got something for you.
Patreon link for support: / mmadataguy
Matchups:
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt 1:15
Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller 6:38
Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez 11:55
Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano 15:38
Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes 19:14
Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison 22:48
Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling 26:36
Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic 30:26
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage 34:54
Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan 37:31
Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway 42:21
Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan 47:21
Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill 50:46
If you find my content valuable, please consider hitting that like button and subscribing. Please also check out the patreon (link above) if you would like to contribute to my efforts. Your support is what fuels my late nights of data analysis, model adjustments, and content creation. It's been an incredible journey growing this community of passionate MMA fans, and every like, comment, and subscribe means the world to me.
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Video coming soon to cover promising underdogs and best inexpensive favorites, to give you all value bets and opportunities 👊💰
Mma data king
Thank you brother 🙏 happy to help everyone out and present all my work 👊
Really good breakdowns man, almost agree on every fight. Keep going!
Thank you for the support bro 👊 love working on these and sharing results
Been waiting for you to drop this!!
Glad you’re here bro hope you enjoy 🙏 let’s get it 💰
Can you do a video on each of your models on how they work?
Yessir, in fact since there’s a gap week between UFC 300 and UFC Fight Night Nicolau vs Perez, I’ll make this my video for next week 👊 I’ll go through my models, what they capture, how they work, etc. Be on the lookout 🙏
@@MMADataGuy Thank you so much!
Enjoyed the stats!
Thanks brother, really appreciate the support 🙏 looking forward to UFC 300
first time i have seen someone use fighter stats try to figure out who will win i think this is a little weird to do because you have to put into account how good the other opponents, such as in the Charles stats. and its not exactly basket ball you have to account for power and substation ability.
Welcome to the channel brother, thanks for your comment. You’re right, but I don’t go solely off stats, I use prediction models as a start, then do thorough research and film study to form my final predictions. I’ve watched MMA growing up, I love it and I know how complex it can be. I mention both stats and my final predictions in the video, to share all my findings with everyone. I’ve been 70% accurate so far for a little over half a year now, in all my picks including prelims, and it’s helped a lot of people out. I hope you give the content a chance or at least enjoy the information, but regardless, thank you for checking it out and commenting 🤝
Commenting for the algorithm! Keep ‘em coming 🔥
Thank you! 🙏
i think you may be discounting the fact that Green may be a different fighter after the brutal KO he suffered
Totally understand what you mean, no thanks to the ref. I took it into consideration but all things considered this should still be Green’s fight to win, at least logically. I’d love for Miller to win though, I respect him, and it would be great for his legacy 🔥
@@MMADataGuy give credit where credit is due, great call on Green my man!
@@joeypinnix5264 thank you for the appreciation brother, happy to help everyone 👊 70% average accuracy, tested over several cards and always improving
@@MMADataGuy awesome...I am subscribed now and will check it out!
Love the content
Thank you for watching and for showing support brother 🤝
This is awesome!!
Thank you brother 🤝 Glad you enjoyed and welcome to the channel
i do believe with this event you will have high hit rate
Fingers crossed brother 🙏
Easy money Jamal Hill plus 5.5 Alex for whatever you want to do for him
Rubs hand like birdman* Hell yeah this is THE video I’m waiting on Interested to see where your picks line up with mine*0:26
YESSIR LET’S GO 👊🔥
@@MMADataGuy last week I was rocking with most of the prediction model picks. This week 😅😅😅😅 not so much Oh goodness
@@babysharpMMA That makes sense because there’s hella good fighters on this card on both ends of each fight. This one was a tough one, we’re up for a great event honestly 🔥
@@MMADataGuy I feel it too man! Hyped as can be, I almost didn’t wager anything just so I could simply enjoy. But the plus money was too much of a tease 🫠
Just a comment for the algorithm
You’re a real one brother, thank you 🙏
Do any of the models take into consideration the jump up in weight class? Or do you think this is a negligible variable?
Great question, thank for your comment 🙏 2 key notes to help answer: 1) The models are based on all historical data, including fights where fighters moved weights, so it learns the results of those types of fights and implements them in predictions 2) I also consider things like that when forming my “Final Prediction”, so I’ll adjust the statistical probability % accordingly That final probability has been 70% accurate for me overall. So I don’t go based off of models alone or just one model, I have multiple, I weigh them to balance them out, I research and watch film again, then adjust the confidence % accordingly
How does model 4: Neural Network work?
Great question bro, I’ll create a video within the next week reviewing my process and information about the models, but here’s a general answer to help answer your question - the neural network model analyzes various factors and statistics, fighting styles, past performances, etc, and is then trained on historical data to learn patterns and trends that correlate with fight outcomes, to then spit out a probability for each fighter against their opponent in an upcoming fight. All models essentially do that, but neural networks utilize machine learning and intelligence to understand relationships between stats and fight outcomes
@@MMADataGuy very impressive! I ask as most of my picks this week align with model 4! I’m really enjoying your content, thanks for your hard work!
@@clarkh4133 That’s awesome! Great way to add confirmation to your models, that’s why I love doing what I do. If you already have algorithms you can cross reference to get confirmations 🔥📊 Thank you man 🙏
@@MMADataGuy unfortunately I don’t use any algorithms :( all off the top of my simple dome
@@clarkh4133 still impressive! You can use my models and research to complement your intuition 🤝
Lfg money money money
LFG 👊 I hope all your bets hit today brother 💰
Nice computer picks
Thanks bro 👊