Why the US-China relationship is more stable than you might think | Ian Bremmer | Quick Take
US Secretary of State Tony Blinken just came from China, Beijing, and Shanghai, and the US-China relationship continues to be better managed and more stable than we've seen in a long time. Not clear that would necessarily be the case, given the number of issues and places where we have friction between these two countries.
Check the comments for more about Ian's insights, and let us know what you think!
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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken in the Middle East right now. But he just came from China, Beijing and Shanghai, and the US-China relationship is what I'm thinking about. Want to give you a state of play.
It continues to be better managed and more stable than we've seen in a long time. Now, not clear that would necessarily be the case, given the number of issues and places where we have friction between these two countries. Just over the course of the last couple weeks, you've got President Biden, putting new tariffs on Chinese steel, opening a new investigation into Chinese shipbuilding. You've got this anti TikTok policy that's coming down from US Congress. You've got $2 billion in additional military aid for Taiwan from the United States. You've also got lots of criticism from the Americans on ongoing Chinese support, dual use technologies for the Russians, allowing them to better fight the war in Ukraine.
Given all of that, is the relationship starting to become much more confrontational? And the answer is not really. It's true that the Chinese foreign minister said that the Americans need to choose between having a relationship of containment and a relationship of partnership, and it's certainly true that the Americans would rather have it both ways. They want to have partnership in areas where it suits the Americans, and containment in areas where it suits the Americans. The Americans getting away with more than that than other countries can because the US is the most powerful country in the world and ultimately the Chinese need Americans more than Americans need China. Still, there's a lot of interdependence, and there is an ability to push back. How much is China actually doing that? And the answer is there's been very little direct Chinese tit for tat, despite all of the policies I just mentioned. It is true that overnight, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that there would be resolute and forceful measures if the supplemental support for Taiwan, which is a red line for the Chinese, is signed and Taiwanese assistance from the US moves ahead, and I suspect that means we're going to see some more sanctions from China against US defense contractors.
That is largely symbolic. It is a tit for tat. But on all the other policies I've mentioned that the Americans have just brought against China, we've seen Chinese focus on making their country and their economy more resilient against American efforts to contain, but not hitting the Americans back, not calibrated, moves of sanctions or reciprocal investigations. In fact, the Chinese have been pretty stable.
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Why are Russia and China hoping for a Trump win in the 2024 US election? Why do America's biggest adversaries even care about November's outcome? Ian Bremmer explains here: kzhead.info/sun/dMyqhs2uiIFtoZE/bejne.html
They'd prefer Biden over Trump. Trump is a loose cannon who could easily push the red button.
The prevailing sentiment among many influential figures in China is that a more open approach to trade is the most effective strategy for managing relations with the United States. The U.S., widely regarded as the world's most powerful nation, has leveraged its considerable national influence, rallying support from allies to impose bans on prominent Chinese companies like Huawei and TikTok. Additionally, there are plans to impose steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and numerous leading Chinese firms have been subjected to sanctions. In response, China has chosen to prioritize collaboration, exemplified by the recent clearance of Tesla's data security checks and the granting of a Full Self-Driving (FSD) license, allowing Tesla to operate nationwide. Furthermore, China has extended a warm welcome to Tim Cook, treating him with great respect during his visit. Conversely, the U.S. has pursued aggressive tactics, such as the arrest of Huawei's CFO in Canada, a move seen by some as targeting a competitor of Apple. The U.S. has also invested significant resources into shaping public opinion, allocating $500 million towards depicting China negatively and influencing American perceptions. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has actively suppressed negative portrayals of the U.S. on its internet platforms, primarily to counter the sentiments of a small faction advocating for retaliatory measures. In contrast, China has adopted a more constructive approach in its engagements with countries in the global south, emphasizing the potential benefits of collaboration rather than disparaging the U.S. However, recent events, particularly the U.S.'s unwavering support for Israel amid the crisis in Gaza, have prompted skepticism among these nations regarding the U.S.'s claims of being a superior partner. Despite the strains in U.S.-China relations, many ordinary Chinese citizens continue to hold favorable views of America. However, there has been a noticeable shift in sentiment among some segments of the population due to perceived hostile actions by the U.S. Nonetheless, the majority of Chinese remain open to positive engagement with the U.S. In light of these developments, it appears that the current U.S. strategy may not yield the desired results. There is a pressing need for the U.S. to reassess its approach and explore more constructive avenues for engagement.
China is the adult in the room but even adults have limits to their patience so the US is stretching its luck here... China's responses will be subtle but far more consequential than the US can imagine. When the US realizes that it has overreached in its aggression towards China, it will already be far too late to repair the damage...
😢Delusional 🙄❤
In other words, out of tool to deal with China.
It is Quite a Bit More nuanced than that junior.
Although Soviet Union and USA had luckily no war, after WWII China and USA had actually two big serious and direct engagements: Korea War and Vietnam War. USA army was armed to teeth and those veterans might not forget what kind of bitter taste in fighting with "poor" Chinese army, which was considered by the west as being armed with stone-aged equipments.
You are still living in the 90's and early 00's, and seeing it from a Western view
Tik tok is not for Sale.
TTok show too much of GZ. The groups control U$ not happy. Sad for Emericans.
Don’t need to sell Tik Tok. Just get it out of the USA.
Tik Tok is a funny app and available freely.
@@blafonovision4342 The whites got to leave America to the rightful owner.
Cut a deal. US allows Tik Tok. China allows Google or KZhead or FB.. ? Just choose one.. everybody will be happy 😂😊❤
You have not considered the people. Disgusted on one side, fueled hatred on the other.
stable enemys
Do you reply on the supply chain from your enemy? It's all politician's fear mongering for their election.
That sounds very much like Blinken's tune. That he plays repeatedly to himself.
Chinese always keep the diplomatic option open .... But it's not as smooth as you mentioned for the following reasons . 1. No red carpet for blinken 2. No direct flight to Beijing 3. A municipal official received him 4. Stayed at a hotel where he could see a Chinese military ship 5. Leaked video from Chinese where Xi is asking one of his official quote "" when he is leaving " 6. No see off from any Chinese They literally humiliated him ......
All of that is Bullshit-Shit. There was A LOT of Positives that came of these meetings for both. It you focus on frivolous nothings, you miss what is germane ... child.
sanction, trade war, dictator, overcapacity, tiktok ban, uygur genocide... and then you expect China to have red carpet, warm smile, handshake and say "hello, welcome to China to lecture us Mr Blinken"? how arrogant are you
CHINESE NOT A HAPPY CAT WAVING AS BLINKEN REPRESENTS THE "UNFRIENDLY WEST" AHAHAHAAA!
Only this Bremner guy is forever blind on not seeing the obvious.
Peter Scweitzer is 100% right on this issue
The hand-shake between Xi and Blinken was appalling ! The look of DISMAY on Xi face was very apparent YIKES ! Update 17th May saw video of Xi waiting impatiently for Blinken who was late haha !
China has more strategic thinking and also made solid actions after decision is made. It is quite clear who is the uppper hand today , just looking at US officials keeping visiting Beijing.
Thank you for sharing.
It is reassuring to see that, in a world where there is so much chaos the two most powerful nations are able to finally sit down and even compare notes in some areas. It reminds me of US-Soviet collaboration during the Suez Canal crisis.
Ian Bremmer clearly doesn't understand Chinese diplomacy. What happened in the last Blinken trip was a further separation of Sino-US relations.
How so, specifically?
@dphuntsman watch the video of XJP waiting to meet Blinken. Also, look at what Wangyi said during Blinken's visit. They wouldn't even let Blinken land directly in BJ. They made him take another route visiting other cities first. It's all about symbolism and Ian Brenner misses all of it. He has zero understanding of Chinese culture, and he misses all the cues.
Ian Bremmer understood USA point of view only, and not China method and approach at all. . A gent named Mitch Presnick, who had done business in China for 30 years, knew lots in depth.
@@chriscromeyn7807 You totally missed what Bremmer was saying: a head of state is not supposed to even be meeting with a mere Secretary of State to begin with. A normal meeting is just between ministers. Yet XJP was there, pacing, waiting to see the US minister.
@dphuntsman It was only a photo opp. Did you hear what XJP said? He couldn't wait until Blinken left. It was a total dis. Meanwhile, most Americans don't get it thanks to ignorant journalists like Bremmer.
Well considering that China's media coverage on Bliken's visit is minimal and that China had already shown the US what it actually felt in no subtle way by parking a 052D destroyer right in front of Blinken's hotel and that the NPC pass a anti-santion law on the same day of Blinken's visit with nobody seeing him off at the airport at the day he left. I would say Bremmer's take on US-China relationship is a little bit navie. Xi also told the media that this visit while formally arranged by China is at the request of Biden which really means China would show Blinken the door if it were not to keep it's words. Wang Yi's conversation w Blinken in translated diplomatic speak really means China is sick and tired of the US's freak show for political gains back home but out of professional courtesy, we will torlerate it for the moment but we are losing patience.
This guy doesn’t know China period
I hope you are right and not complacent. It doesn't look good to many of us elsewhere.
in short, one side functions like adult
I remember one of your analysts I love listening to Robert Kaplan said the goal of the US China relationship is to get things to a post Cuban Missile Crisis detente scenario I'm glad we're heading there
it will be awesome if ppl can all get along in this tiny planet earth I really got huge adoration to so many specialist from US for their superb expertise ,great country really makes my mental and body healthier by great person like drberg on and so on
Thanks, from Australia
is this a joke? Sanctions coming and then full on military action. Lets revisit this next summer
China is too weak and cannot afford to fight.
The video looks to me as you says US can't contain China but you don't want to say
Very well said…..
That's just like Chamberlain meeting with Hitler before WW2
more stable than you might think. Yes, because everything has reached the bottom, if to go any worse, it has to drill a hole in the floor, to reach the basement, as some TV commercial showed back about two decades ago, where the slogan goes like this: "How could they go so low?" (because the other company just went through the floor falling into B1.
Ian, you need to learn more from Chinese “The Art Of War”.
Very interesting. Thank You!
So in other words: China has decided it doesn’t want to have to deal with Trump.
China doesn't like Trump, but China loved Trump. One of the first things that he did was withdraw from the TPP, which was calculated to have given a $200 billion per year windfall. When Chinese diplomats got caught trying to rig the APEC meeting in Papua New Guinea, it backfired and VP Pence (who was attending) was able to jump on the opportunity to show China was sneaky and untrustworthy. Less than a year later, Trump threw the Chinese a lifesaver, when he started threatening North Korea with "fire and fury." The Chinese diplomats jumped on it and started spreading the "America is unhinged" narrative, which only received pushback from the US core allies but this did resonate with a lot of the fence sitters (Pakistan, Hungary, etc.) and so-called Global South countries. Trump would throw the occasional curveball (the 2018 tariffs) but by and large, China was glad Trump came along.
US no 1 bully.
That shirt!
YES, TOO INVOLVED WITH MATTERS OF SERIOUS CONSIDERATIONS, HOPEFULY COMMUNICATION & COOPERATION PREVAIL, LOVE & UNDERSTANDING AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!
What are you smoking
Gouda
I feel strange as well, Ian is used to being very arrogant with American hegemony.
2024-4-17 Tension escalated. Always lead by the empire. Mid-range missile dep10y in PH by U$. -->able to deliver nuclear to China city
with nuclear capability
China match by meeting with Cuba defense member, announce provide defense capability "assistance"
Russia match by announce may dep10y the same in Cuba.
The Cuban Missile Crisis, also known as the October Crisis in Cuba, or the Caribbean Crisis, was a 13-day confrontation between the governments of the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba.
Full of arrogant☹
Such a stable status is mainly based on a strong/united China, plus a declining/splitting America.
Idk china is in bad shape. Economy, discontent and demographic issues. China is probably fucked in the medium term.
You are wrong. It’s the opposite actually.
@@GowthamNatarajanAI Although Soviet Union and USA had luckily no war, after WWII China and USA had actually two big serious direct wars: Korea War and Vietnam War. USA army armed to teeth and those veterans might know what kind of bitter taste in fighting with "poor" Chinese army, which was considered by the west as being armed with stone-aged equipments.
@@GowthamNatarajanAIAs I commented, USA finds China nowhere to bite.
Just the opposite, if anything. Plus…what do you mean by ‘strong China’? You clearly mean here a strong CCP/Xi- which is the worst possible thing for humanity, as I think you’d agree.
If the previous $113 billion from the USA didn’t help Ukraine win, remember the disastrous summer offensive, how will the $61 billion make a difference? $$$ won’t buy new Ukrainian men and Ukraine lacks men. This is why they send their POWs back to the frontline after 3 months of “rest”.
The $61 billion is a curse to Ukraine, preventing them to surrender before the election date.
I remember it vividly. You are being disingenuous.
It is because of military aid that Russia has failed to defeat Ukraine. So military aid works.
@@GowthamNatarajanAINo, most money comes back to America, instead of the war field.
Just another legal money laundering.
Blinken got roasted in China and here you are, saying he was treated well. Who the F believes you?