CIA spy analyzes Vladimir Putin and the War in Ukraine | Andrew Bustamante and Lex Fridman
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Andrew Bustamante is a former CIA covert intelligence officer. Check out his work and podcast at everydayspy.com
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At 9:48 you used the term "the whole world". Keep one thing in mind. "The whole World" is not NATO
NATO is a minority in terms of world population
There are very few countries that are directly assisting Russia invading Ukraine. Iran and North Korea. There are a few other countries that are taking advantage of Russia by purchasing oil and resources at a large discount, namely China and India but they are not directly aiding Russia in the war.
@@HyzersGR Maybe you should join some East European and Balkan groups to see what people think of this conflict. South America does not care and a lot of African countries are on the side of Russia. And you should do some research what purchasing US from Russia too, not just uranium...
@@HyzersGR Recently, Emanuel Macron threatened to send French troops to Ukraine to fight against Russia. Guess who became the largest buyer of Russian gas in EU this year, overtaking Hungary? That's right, France :) You can threaten Russia very loudly in front of the cameras, but at the same time quietly and without loud statements conduct business with it
NOBODY SAID IT IS!!!!!
Would love to see this guy come back on and reassess the situation
This shows that even qualified guesses are still just guesses. Might as well ask your next Uber/taxi driver for his guess.
I mean the war hasn't ended so he was only wrong about the time we will see in the future if he was wrong about the outcomes
good lex
@@Korher6 exactly, last time I checked...Russia has control pretty much all of eastern Ukraine...timing might be off..but he's pretty much nailed the outcome.
@@vondahe whats your guess ?
This gentleman got it wrong with his first assessment, the reason Russia didn't take Kiev at the beginning of the war is because Russia agreed to retreat their troops while they were working on an agreement which now we all know it was a trick by ukranazis to make Russian troops retreat, it was not a Russian defeat.
"Ukraine is a pawn on the table" ... 100%
This thinking from school of realism got us to the cold war, and multiple pointless conflicts. Ukraine is Ukraine people, and they have right to do with their county whatever they want to.
Define " Ukrainian people ".
@@tatianalyulkin410 everybody who have ability to vote in Ukraine elections.
no "it will become one of the democratic nations that the 21st century is remembered by" despite being wiped off the face of the earth lmao. We've got 75 more years to go, if its remembered it will be because it almost started WWIII
Lol Zelenski is a piece of 🖼️… dude is a good beggar!!! Russia all the way baby!!!
“Hearts and minds are a luxury”…One of the realest things I’ve heard in a very long time!
Hearts and minds just sounds utopic and socialist. It's about practicality. You can either be practical, be a cult of personality or both.
Disagree. Both Russia and China invest heavily in securing hearts and minds. They do it with a propaganda infrastructure that democracies can't deploy. As a result, both Putin and Xi have broad public support. Hearts and minds are not a luxury, they are a necessity.
It's essential.. not a luxury His claim that it's a west idea is brain-dead beyond all belief.. all leaders must capture hearts and minds for any sustained control.. He does not appreciate the power and importance of propaganda in delivering hearts and minds while simultaneously being cunts
It makes me so much more hopeful knowing now (3 months later) that the analysis was wrong in a lot of aspects.
Ukraine is literally on life support and on the verge of irreversible collapse and you probably have no idea about the stamina of the Russians historically in wars . The west picked the absolute wrong battle .
@@82boulou How is the weather in Moscow today?
@@micomator 🤣🤣
@@82boulou Ukraine has been on the verge of collapse for about 9 months now, chap... At least that's what you Russian trolls like to repeat oh so often.
@@82boulou how’s Kherson?
It’s funny reading the comments after 1 year
why
@@SIMONREMISHHumour is subjective
because winter came, and nobody even flinched, not even the Germans
@@lukahitrec2438 Yeah, no one froze to death like the guy predicted. But most people lowered the heating temperature in fear of massive bills. This resulted in mould on walls for many people. Also there was a massive price increase on food and other necessities, making it hard for low income households and pensioners to afford enough food. The gov additionally putting up to 50% tax on necessities like electricity or gasoline, to fund the excessive CO2-neutrality-program and the overburdened welfare-asylum-system, does not help with the situation. People are fed up, society and unity seems far less stable compared to a couple years ago. Election results reflect this as the two major parties (who usually got >40% each in the past 60 years...) now struggle to get more than 25% of the votes. Radical parties (left and right) grew from negligible numbers to double digits. Of course, many bad decisions in the past decade, not just the situation with RUS, added up to that state of things. Still the RUS situation noticeable adds to the destabilization.
This guy is still working for the CIA and he is doing just that what is required of him. Information and misinformation that's all
When are you going to interview Col Douglas McGregor or Scott Ritter?
Well, Scott Ritter is a convicted pedo, so I hope never. He literally just got out of prison in the last 10 years for trying to meet up with young girls (like 13 online) over and over and over. It wasn’t like he was 18 and his girlfriend was 16. This was not that long ago. He is no genius and he can’t be sane. I don’t think a lot of people understand this about him, and I don’t trust anything he says anyway. Some people will try to defend him, but the guy was convicted and imprisoned with proof. If I was him, I don’t think I would show my face. He has also been paid by Russia to make commercials. I am not trying to be ugly to you though. I was just looking at comments, and I saw yours and thought I’d give you the heads up!
Great question!! Maybe he doesn't want to hear the truth. They give a better assessment than this man. He is close but not as accurate as Scott Ritter.
When is Lex gonna develop the cajones to interview me? Or the Brotherhood said " no "- once and for all? 🤣
The white supremacist who has been wrong on every single prediction and the convicted sex offender who has been wrong about every single prediction 😂
Where is Scott Ritter and Macgregor? They must be watching kiddie porn , the chosen past time of Ritter .
The constant struggle between feelings and logic inside Lex's brain is fascinating.
He's an INFJ mate
@@J7C. And Andrew is definetly a Te user and you see Lex's Fe clash with Andrew's Te a lot during this video
@@zeromath20 Yup! :)
LoL I can see that too
@@zeromath20 i have no idea what you are talking about. can you elaborate?
Lex: hearts and minds matter Spy: money and energy matter ✅
It’s less than a month and his predictions for Ukraine are laughable. Odessa by September, Moldovan border by the end of the year! Since then Ukraine have surrounded Russia in Kherson and stormed through Kharkiv.
@@lilze only fools who laugh while the war does not yet end and have its true winner as result.
Spy: money and anergy matter (according his ex-boss)
@@mackbedunduk1305 I didn’t say anything about a true winner?? Bustamante said that Russia would have Odessa by fall, that is a laughably shit prediction.
Einstein: energy and space matter 👌
It's so funny to read comments of people who heard this man talk about military strategy, then waited for like 3-6 months, didn't see the results and went ape shit , without realising that they mostly just have proven his point about not needing hearts and minds
Yeah some of them cannot handle the true, soon reality will hit them hard. And only thing there can do this dream on just say everything gonna be fine.
Russia is winning one year later
Lex living in MSM, Putin living in Reality
Most of them in comments too.
Can we bring this guy back and ask exactly the same questions now?
Same thing would be said. What do you mean. Russia can easily win this war if they wanted. They’ll win but do not want to destroy the place
@@davidwalker8778 Hahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahhah Hahahhahahahhahahhahahahha
@@davidwalker8778 mate, Russia had to get 400,000 prisoners on the front line. They are losing land to the current counter offensive. They weren't able to take any more land than they took. They failed to take Kyiv. They said the war would take 3 days. Millions of smart young people have left Russia. Yeah sure, they could just nuke the place but we could always win the war and just nuke Russia first by that analysis.
@@davidwalker8778😂😂😂
@@davidwalker8778🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Joe rogan: talks about DMT all day. Lex: Talks about Putin and Hitler every episode
Joe is a man with daddy issues who seems to have successfully dealt with by the assistance of drugs and Lex has Russian and Jewish roots so it kinda makes sense why they often bring up these topics
When Putin & Hitler took DMT thay had visions of Lex and Joe committing genocide.
No no let’s talk about Leopold and Columbus
Well, Lex is a Loyalist. What do you expect him to do- support Donbass?
We have to bring this guy back, grab popcorn, and watch his "assessment" with him.
Amen.
We really should yeah. He was right about 85%. Even the things he got wrong like Odessa he still got right in a sense that it’s a hard target outside of putins reach
he didint got odessa wrong. the war isnt over, the end game of putin has never been kiev but odessa. wait and see@@whiletrue13
how about now?
Ну я взял попкорн 🍿 и хочу сейчас взглянуть на Зеленского, втягивающего последние кокаиновые дорожки перед необратимой капитуляций..
CIA spy would never say he's a CIA spy >.>
he quit a long time ago
It would be really interesting to see this conversation being had again 6months into the war and reflecting on how the ground has shifted.
try now, 2 months shy but the ground has shifted
It hasn't shifted at all.
@@jo18533 would you please explain what you mean. We're talking war in Ukraine.
@@DedicatedAngler russia is still wiing.ukraine is destroyed and a joke.Only think supporting ukrine is the media propoganda.
@@hende8445 says you
Bro The entire WEST is giving Ukraine tons and tons and tons of weapons, also training and giving them intel 24/7
Does that justify an invasion
Just enough to grind down the Russian army but not enough for Ukraine do a major counter offensive. The US wants Russian stuck in another Afghanistan
@@BubblegumCrash332 more money in it that way for the war machines.
@@gngr2 did the Invasion of Iraq have any justification? The bombing of Belgrade in 1999, the shelling of the Gaza strip...some background and perspective, some accuracy in reporting, raising awareness on the propaganda machine on full steam on both sides, I'd say that guys speaks things that need to be heard.
@@user-og5fc5rt8g yes, if you opposed the invasion of Iraq, as I did, you should oppose putins invasion.
well this aged well
Lol...
It did. Russia has never not been winning. Ukriane is destroyed. They have no one left to fight and no army. One of their most famous mechanized bridgades is now an infantry bridgade cause of all the loses
Lil bro thinks Ukro natsees are winning lmaooo, stop watching CNN buddy boi
Russias winning so he was right
Putin didn't miscalculate anything, you guys wrong 15 days calculation wrong from day one. Russia Putin never discuss 15 days with the west so the matter of 15 days is west program.
Lex: so intelligent yet so naive…
Dlaczego?
Facts don't care about ur feelings
@@bryankowalczyk3982 100%
Especially for someone who originates from that part of the world, very "westernised"
@@viliusmu7849 most people over here are westernised. due to the fact that we reject everything that has to do with russia.
You can tell this guy is a former intelligence officer, his analysis has been proved to be completely wrong, with UKAF counter offensive. He says taking Odeca will be no destruction and street to street fighting, like Mari-U-pol, does he even realise what happened there, it was largely destroyed?
And the fact that he is allowed to go on record is a sign that he never knew much to begin with, meaning they weren't afraid he would leak anything. This guy was probably a toilet cleaner at Langley
When I first saw this clip I thought maybe I was deluded, but the more I thought about it, the more I came to think he's on a payroll nowadays as a mouthpiece. This is stuff they'd push on Russian TV shows.
@@TheEthanOBrien It is. Its almost impressive how little he knows. Especially regarding the development the last 48 hours with the Ukranians kicking ass all over.
Perhaps you mean, he still is and have the job to manipulate citizens.. because the elites are getting exposed, people are waking up (slowly) 💪. Yess Ukraine people know exactly they re leaders are Nazi s just like the most western leaders
Don’t be quick to judge. 😂
Clear to see Lexi’s bias in regards to Ukraine’s dire situation. Emotion over logic. Sad situation.
Yep he was pretty biased on Ukraine side. That other dude was right all along
THANK YOU for explaining about lend-lease used in wartime. Virtually no average person in the US is even aware of this!
I’m Polish working in western Ukraine now as a journalist. This guy says a lot of things that reveal his cluelessness about the real situation in Ukraine. He predicts that Russia will take Odessa by the fall. It’s the end of august now, and the frontline has been stalled for 6 weeks or so. He says that Ukraine is receiving almost nothing from the West, but will pay trillions of dollars (!!!) for the weapons it is receiving now. Don’t you see the contradiction here? In reality, Ukraine hasn’t yet received anything under Land lease act that he’s referring to. The weapons in amount of ~15 billion dollars were supplied as an “aid”. He says Russia will occupy the South and East of Ukraine, while Zelensky will have to step down because he was too much anti Russian, so he will be substituted by some pro-Russian puppet president. How can you imagine that without occupying the whole country? Nobody in Ukraine will voluntarily agree on a pro Russian president. That’s how things work. He says “Putin will not use artillery to shell Odessa, because historic heritage of Odessa is important for russian culture, so Russians will just come to each house and kill everyone without damaging buildings, just like they did in Mariupol”. That’s a whole new level of cluelessness. Mariupol was bombed and shelled like no other city in Ukraine, 90% of buildings were destroyed. Historic heritage, russian culture, are you serious? He says “Ukraine has a chance to win if oligarchs in Russia organize a coup”. It’s a 1990s stereotype about Russian oligarchs. They have zero influence in todays Russia. If somebody can organize a coup, it’s only the Russian security services. He says that Russia desperately needs Ukrainian agriculture, and that’s the economic interest of this war. Well, the whole Ukrainian agricultural export revenue is about 10-12 billion dollars per year, while Russia has already lost ~350 billion dollars only in frozen Central bank reserves. It’s crazy to believe that this war can be in any way economically beneficial for Russia. Dude, just take a calculator and do a cold calculation, like you say you do. And finally, the guy says that information warfare in English is intended to influence English speaking Russians. What a BS. There are just several million of Russians who speak English, nobody cares about them because they decide nothing both in Russia and in the West.
Great post! Andrew must be either completely clueless or a bought and paid for Russian shill. I'm guessing just clueless.
I think he was proven far more right than you.
@@rg7535yeah, russia took Odessa just so fast and effective and… of no, it fucking didn’t. It didn’t take anything since than in fact. How in your brain is this guy more right than the commentator?
@@fedirshu3882 No, they didn’t take Odessa but they did hold on to all the land they had taken in the South and East of the country, and crippled the Ukrainians, which is the essence of what he was saying, and the opposite of what the msm prognosticated.
Its December now. How is Ukraine doing now?
Despite his frequent use of the word "empirically,", Mr Bustamante's opinions might be more compelling if he actually understood the scale of the aid that the US has approved for Ukraine -- or if he understood how the "Lend Lease" program actually worked for the UK (and other countries such as Russia) during the Second World War. He claims broadly that the US is not committing much in terms of its wealth to Ukraine when that simply is not true - if you count all aid, humanitarian, administrative and military, just this year (according to Congressional Budget Office, et al.) it nearly amounts to a staggering .3% of the United States' GDP. In absolute dollars, the US has contributed more than double all of the aid provided by the rest of the world to Ukraine, combined. By domestic comparison, it has contributed in six months pretty close to what it spends on all public housing in the US for the entirety of 2022. And most of this is not part of a lend-lease program - most of it is just pure foreign grants-in-aid. One other way of putting the amount of aid that the US has so far allocated to Ukraine into perspective is to simply compare it to the size of Russia's total annual military spend. It is generally accepted that Russia has the fourth largest budget allocated to defense of any nation in the world (after the US, China and India); estimates for this year range from US$61 billion to US$65 billion. Through May of this year, the US had approved more than US$54 billion to Ukraine, and if you count all forms of aid expected to be allocated to Ukraine by year's end, that number is conservatively expected to be closer to US$60 billion by the end of 2022. So the US, alone, is providing aid to Ukraine that rivals that of Russia's full defense spending for the same year. Want a little more perspective on the United States' commitment to Ukraine? The US has committed to provide aid to Ukraine that will likely be in the same rough range as the 2022 military defense budgets of Israel, Turkey and Iran -- combined(!). Also, Mr Bustamante either doesn't know how lend-lease worked during WW II -- or he is being intentionally disingenuous. The US provided the UK via lend-lease over $30 billion in goods and services; however, it ultimately accepted repayment of only a bit more than $1 billion from the UK for these items, and that was paid back over time. So that means that the US discounted and made a complete gift of 95-97% of the lend-lease aid it provided to the UK. The US hardly 'drowned' the UK in debt. We stepped in and gave them (and other allies) what they needed during one of their darkest hours. Lend-lease was just Roosevelt's way of getting items to Churchill (and other leaders) quickly while skirting around budgetary objections in Congress via the fig leaf that the US would be paid back later. I honor Mr Bustamante's previous military and CIA service, but perhaps he should review the hard facts again on several of the opinions he offered. But if his other opinions on "Russia winning" are like his opinions about the nature and scale of US aid to Ukraine now, or to the UK during WWII, it is hard not to think that his opinions are based more on conjecture and personal opinion than anything "empirical."
Thank you for this very insightful comment
This was a very good comment
Preach!!
Also, Europe, especially the Baltics and the rest of Eastern Europe are very much interested in helping Ukraine, no matter the cost.
I couldn't have said it any better
This dude admitted he was wrong in the beginning, and now looking back he was wrong during this interview lol. Some expert.
He's right and you can't handle the truth
Do a follow up interview now
This didn't age well...
Meh, Russia will reconquer it within a short amount of time.
@@goedel. My prediction russia is done, like state i mean.
Your comment didnt age well
@@eachday5705 you prediction is silly lol, russia is doing better than ever
It did 😂
Anybody can win a war when you keep redefining what winning a war means.
The definition of war has evolved alongside of our technological evolution. No particular entity redefined what it means
But the definition given in the video wasn't a definition from Russia, it was a definition based on what he thinks it takes for Russia to win and not what Russia says it needs to win. He gave a good explanation of why he thinks that way and if Russia would back down and say something like they don't need Luhansk or the south for whatever reason, im sure he wouldn't argue that russia is still winning even if they claimed they did.
The USAF and newer analyst perspective might actually be that fighting doesn't matter. It stinks of cluelessness. That economics and politics are important and that force underwrites those is pretty clear to anyone not believing in post scarcity thinking
He lost me at Russia taking Odesa.
Winning a war has nothing to do with the fighting. As he said, its control of supply chains and Russia is winning hands down there. It would be quite easy for Russia to destroy Ukraine, but that's not what they're after.
This aged like milk
Thank you. Excellent interview….very objective.
I love the contrast between Andrews perspective and the perspective of Lex. 30:17.
I don't agree with most of what he says , hindsight is great as this was over a month ago but his assessment is way off the current reality
Excellent interview. subscribed!
Two years into this and Bustamante is 💯 RIGHT!!
Absolutely
how so?@@FN-im9xj
True
I like how he analyzes things and yet all his “assessments” and predictions are wrong….. I don’t know what to say 😂
How are they wrong?
@@jo18533bc they’re wrong. he said things would happen by the fall. it’s the winter and those things haven’t happened.
@@MichaelJordan-fp4ih such as..? I mean, do you honestly think Ukraine, even with all the money and equipment it gets from the West, can defeat Russia??
that's why he left CIA too early
Agreed. Really poor assessment (just reviewed it). Not sure if this chap was a field officer or an analyst. Either/or, his AO was South America or suchlike, definitely not CEE, and a Slavonic expert he is not.
Haha, armchair military analyst gets it badly wrong! How unexpected 🤣🤣🤣
Lol! He's badly right and you can't handle the truth
@@markdaniels4178 🤨 This is the level of intellect that gets impressed by these guys, empty headed muppets.
Glad Andrew was wrong about Odesa and Moldova. He's not wrong about Ukraine losing... unfortunately.
Signing off to go to a channel where I actually respect somebody that I can see is knowledgeable
This is a dumb take. Lex is a saint for sitting through it so calmly.
It’s arrogant and cynical. I could accept the argument that Russia will win (although I pray they don’t!), but the way he makes his case discounts everything unique about this particular situation in this particular time period.
The certainty with which this man passes his opinions as fact is obnoxious
More obnoxious than the opinion of a youtube rando? Shut up and keep your thoughts to yourself
Agree
Maximum obnoxiousness. Arrogant.
Hey, but your opinion is obnoxious. Now what?
@@coderentity2079 your name is obnoxious so it cancel each other out..
Everything this guy said, in an incredibly self-assured way, didn't happen. Actually the exact opposite happened. Maybe he was simply kicked out from the CIA...
Come back and do another analysis at this time I think the situation now is totally f***** up in Ukraine but I would love to see this gentleman's analysis on the present situation
One year later. He was totally right LOL
The America on which we Americans, born before 1980, base our National pride on is so far past we cannot even see it in the rear-view mirror anymore.
This ex-CIA schmuck (Andrew) is so uninformed about Ukraine-Russia situation I’m ecstatic he’s out of CIA - his lack of in-depth research & generalization. Like, at every step of analysis. It is only eclipsed by Lex’s “I float in clouds” blind optimism.
* your america in which you based your national pride on is far past. You grew up during the cold war. Propaganda on every page about the good capitalist v the evil communists. So I can imagine why national pride was high.
I hear & feel you comrade America had a very real & tangible strength in ourselves. Nowadays it is a Shitshow and we lost whatever it was we had. When the jobs went overseas we were a different America than now.
Born before 1980, met many many good people born after who have fought for and loved this country as much as the generations before them.
🍏🍏**We have become a medieval feudal society where the ultra wealthy are at the top**, and varying levels of peasants labor under them. The peasants live paycheck to paycheck and are distracted by the political theater that is encouraged by the elites. The elites like to keep the peasants divided and in a constant state of gridlock.
It's early October 2022. Just wanted to hear this guy comments on his prediction back in August that "by this fall Russia will take Odesa". Not exactly what is happening, is not it?
They're progressing in the East but the South/Odessa is not happening.
The US is lending money to Ukraine? I thought they were giving it to them? The US media doesn't say that. Where does he get that?
He's full of crap. They're just barely starting to do this now
Always fascinating interviews with divers seasoned guest speakers at Flex Clips! On this update suffice to remind all and sundry that ONCE A SPY, ALWAYS A SPY.
What scares me is not that Andrew and probably Alex as well are CIA. What scares the hell out of me is that a field agent is sitting there pontificating like he's a Ph.D. in Modern Eastern European History or something- and the world just swallowing his act. Andryusha is a fake and a fraud. End of story.
This guys went from talking about things that he’s very well qualified about like spycraft and such, to saying Russia will take Odessa by November… I think he’s stepping outside of what he’s actually qualified to speculate on. I just don’t see that happening. Anyway, I’ll revisit in 3 months and hope I’m right.
thought the same
Yea. Not only Odessa or Nikolaev, but even smoller towns like Bahmut or Avdiivka russian can't take, this war is lost for them.
Agreed. It's like he's read a few headlines from US and Russia news and formed his what seems like a strong opinion from that. Saying the US is putting Ukraine in debt trap is just false, so far anyways. All aid so far was not through Lend-Lease and does not have to be paid back. And to say the Presidents low approval rating shows that Americans don't support US involvement in Ukraine - makes him seem out of touch with everything that's been going on.
There are many other independent analyst looking at this who have been making predictions that have been far more accurate than main stream sources. They agree with this guy, there thoughts are that when this is all over Ukraine will be a small rump state.
The American people are on Ukraines side. I feel like i see 10 Ukrainian flags a day. The only way ukraine looses is if the US withdraws their support. Otherwise western weapons will prevail over Russian weapons like they have over the past 50 years.
Watching this guy from the future kills the credibility of his assessment with every minute
Just wait for the Counter offensive. I am from the future and the Ukrainians have cross the Dnipro River as of the April 24th. It has begun.
how? Russia is still winning
@@RSVPrr sure :D
@@RSVPrr lol russia is wining a meter a day!!!! in 2085 they'll have the whole of ukraine!
Still think Ukraine is going to win? Without NATO weapons, Ukraine would have been done 6 months in
Beautiful conversation
I'd love to hear how this guy feels about his predictions now.
People worldwide lost their "hearts and minds" the moment they ran out of toilet paper. God knows what those same people would do if it was food/gas/power at stake. It's most definitely a luxury for those who are at no risk themselves.
My father was in Germany after the war as a photographer. He showed me a film of Hamburg. Or maybe it was Berlin? Anyways, was taken from a plane that flew really low with a speed of a couple of hundred kilometers. That's 130 miles. The movie lasted half an hour and during that half hour there was nothing but ruins. Ruins and ruins and ruins as far as you could see. But people still lived in the ruins. Shops, theaters, cinemas. Schools, factories, busses, trams. Apart from everything being ruins, the city were alive. People had no heating, very little power, everybody slept in their cellars. And still they were completely unbroken. Everyone had believed in German victory until the very day they surrendered. And even those who understood the war was lost, still were determined to fight on. That is why I don't believe the Europeans will give in even if Putin turn the gas of completely. It will just make them angrier.
that's a really good point, I really worry about what will happen if something actually serious happened
Almost every male in my family works for power companies in some capacity. Many of them are lineman, dispatchers, IT professionals, etc. All I'm going to say is that you have no idea how susceptible our grid really is and if we faced a determined adversary we could have some really serious issues. That said I think people and indeed society are stronger than we give them credit for. I know the world is strange in this futuristic year of 2022, but I still believe in the soul of mankind and I believe we would come together in the event of a real emergency or attack against us.
@@beardly0121 Yes, our leaders and especially the leaders of our enemies, who tend to despise us, tend to expect us to break easily. But that didn't happen during the blitz in London or not even in the much, much worse blitz by the allied on Germany. Didn't happen in Saint Petersburg or Stalingrad either. Didn't happen in Tokyo or any of the other large Japanese cities. When people do give up, is when they understand they really have no chance and their enemy can just pour it on forever. But if they believe they have even a small chance, they will "take it on the chin".
Oh thanks for saying that. I've been trying to make this point for years, even before the pandemic. Ppl have very little perspective on how the rest of the world lives, now and historically... We RARELY ever see times of peace with so many human rights and resources available to us.
Looks like his next assignment from the CIA handlers is to gather intel while working undercover at a surf shop.
We're not a " democracy ", Andryusha.
Mr Bustemonti you did a good job of opening his eyes it's with his heart he sees Ukraine.
"There's no support from the West to Ukraine" How in the hell can someone say those words with a straight face? Whether you think the support is good or bad, denying it is simply an act of ignorance or dishonesty.
US Marines landing in Normandy or Sicily and fighting to Berlin is SUPPORT. Will US / NATO troops land in Odessa and fight to Moscow or even Kiev? ... NO
There is a easy way to provide your point - how many Dollars where sent with no questions asked? If this is a charity sum it's is.
I would have to say he probably still represents the US government to some degree. So saying the west is actively helping ukraine is admitting the US is involved in helping Ukraine fight Russia and that can be taken as a act of aggression possibly leading to direct conflict between the US and Russia. Long story short he cant speak freely and has to choose what he says wisely because his words carry more weight then a normal citizen when talking about what the us government is doing.
Just a guess I could be wrong
@@Jimbo_Swaggins huh? The US admits it. Biden continues to make it a campaign narrative about how much he and other figures “support Ukraine.” It’s not a secret.
Lex.... you might want to search what's the Azov battalion, who's Bandera and check the comments Ukranian hosts were making in live national TV saying the people in Donbass should leave and that they were not Ukranian back before the Maidan, this is not new, if you check all that saying it's Na-zi it's not that far fetched.
This guy analyzed the whole topics correctly for me
Odessa by fall is a very bold prediction which is nearly impossible
This is a man from the same agency that lost to the Taliban
"I wear dreds, trust me bro."
Very little if any of his predictions have come true. I'm not calling him dumb, i'm merely stating that there are more variables than any one human can compute. At the end of the day, the war of attrition stands as just that.
There are so many aspects of his assessment that are either blatantly wrong or incredibly faulty. In no way were Europeans ever in danger of ”freezing” to death, lol. That's so absurd to even think about. The worst-case scenario was an increased cost of heating and electricity bills (which did occur) and some infrequent power outages to save electricity for hospitals etc... Ukraine got along fine. The EU provided heaters of different sorts but also the fact that Ukraine’s industry is demolished meant that they could focus their energy on civilian households.
This was such a good episode. Not unworthy for this “clip” to be 40 minutes long. Listening to Bustamante talk about the Mossad and even DGSE was a thrilling experience.
Its a bunch of a bullshit.
He makes a few mistakes (such as regarding the stipulations of Lend-Lease) but overall it's pretty good. To clarify, he says that the Lend-Lease Act of 1941 was a "buy now pay later" scheme, which is incorrect. The Lend-Lease Act of 1941 was by and large free, paid for by the American Taxpayer with certain materiel (such as warships) being returned after the war. What he was describing is more akin to stipulations of the Neutrality Act of 1939.
@@getmeoutofsanfrancisco9917 The Russian winter had more to do with the defeat of Nationalist Germany than Lend-Lease did. Were it not for that winter the world would be a much better place today.
Be careful this giy might be doing a psy op to get people to think a certain way. We dont know for sure.
Yea he talked out of his a.s..s this episode..it was great...
The first question that I would like to ask is, what is the accuracy rate of the guest's data analysis of past conflicts? How many times has his analysis been correct?
all of them
Aged like milk
@@diondowney1466 How?
Wahaahhhaahahaha, exactly!! Really poor assessment (just reviewed it). Not sure if this chap was a field officer or an analyst. Either/or, his AO was South America or suchlike, definitely not CEE, and a Slavonic expert he is most certainly not.
Missed this one, Andrew. Odesa still is Ua. Slava Ukraine.
Thanks for sharing 🤙
The CIA guy kept saying he had all these data points, seemed kind of vague about them to me though. Also I think pessimism may seem like critical thinking but I think it's a trap a lot of intellectuals fall into because it often seems like a negative outcome is a safer thing to bet on, whenever something good happens it's usually a surprise and no one saw it coming. I think many people have a tendency to magnify on the worst elements of our nature and overemphasis those traits, when in reality people are much more complicated and dynamic then that, and things can change very quickly and without warning.
You're absolutely right. Cynicism easily passes as intellectualism. Andrew's full of it, the "data points" he actually shares are mostly incorrect or prove the opposite of what he's saying. He also claims the Russians will conquer Odesa without artillery before the fall out of nowhere, then says there's only a 60% chance Russia will win the war, and hey, "winning" takes many forms, and anyway, in his mind, they're already winning right now! So I guess he's just covering his bases. 😂
@@PBz0r If he took a billion dollars from the taxpayers and gave it to drug dealers in Venezuela during the interview he would actually be the full embodiment of the CIA and their capabilities lmfao.
This ex-CIA schmuck (Andrew) is so uninformed about Ukraine-Russia situation I’m ecstatic he’s out of CIA - his lack of in-depth research & generalization. Like, at every step of analysis. It is only eclipsed by Lex’s “I float in clouds” blind optimism.
@SlimJimLim I'm actually curious what are the data points that look like a Russian victory is immanent. With the aid of the US, insurgents kept the Russian's busy for years in Afghanistan before the Russian's finally decided cut their loses and leave. So far Russia has sustained massive casualties in Ukraine when you compare the two conflicts, also Putin already has a shortage of professional troops because he doesn't want to call this an actual war which would allow him to begin mass conscription. If he is backed into a corner and decides that he has to reclassify this into an real war so that he can get the man power he may need very soon that could be politically very dangerous for him. The Russian people are going along with him now, but once he starts sending Russian sons to go die in a conflict the Russian people don't fully understand that could begin to create factures in his grip on power.
This guy would run laps around you mentally. He understands power in every form and I would listen to what he has to say
"War is a terrible thing. That is a quote..." - Andrew Bustamante 🤣
Not clear why CIA hired this man but his read on Putin and view that Russia is an autocratic government is positively laughable. The same is true for his assessment of Odessa. Andrew needs to take a good, hard look in the mirror and understand that arrogance does not mean one is intelligent.
This didn't age well... Odessa is still free.
I'm Ukrainian and I'll even ignore the pro-Russian propaganda here.And the fact there is clearly a tremendous support for Ukraine and we are winning as well)But when a person says that Lend Lease puts a country in debt- it just immediately says there have 0 idea what they are talking about)
What are you winning?
What are you winning?
Interview guy is like: "No way Putin can take control of the south, he would need to butcher countess civilians who will fight to the death. There would be a bajillion war crimes!" CIA guy is like: "Yes. And?"
It's like that Anakin/Padme meme... Lex: But Ukraine is gonna win, right? Andrew: ............. Lex: Right?
And it's not gonna happen by Fall. Impossible prediction.
Russia is taking it by force they're not worried about what people think
@@WinstonSmithGPT well as a Russian I can say that the propaganda in Russia and the way it’s embedded within that culture is in a different level. And the big difference between western and Russian propaganda is that here in the west we HAVE THE CHOice to choose whatever sources of info seem best to us. Not the case there for most people, and the penalty for speaking out against the government or the war etc is getting steeper by the day. But for the Russian people, that’s just normal.
@@fartnutssupreme4930 In addition to the choice - not all propaganda are lies. There's positive propaganda where you convince that your way is better (Taylor, Journalism Studies, Volume 3, Number 3, 2002, pp. 437-452 for those interested). It's basically about convincing a population under repression AND propaganda that there's a better way. For that you need positive propaganda to counter the propaganda of the oppressor. Conclusion: western media point of view may be pro Ukraine, but it's not necessary biased or nefarious.
Excellent interview, especially in light of the Tucker Putin interview. Can you schedule another interview to update your audience relative to the Putin interview in contrast to this interview and to assess where things may be headed. I wish I would’ve seen this before the Tucker, Putin interview. Thanks again. Keep up the good work and the dialogues open and going.
The people who did not get good information were America with 34 trillion dollar debt and European economic dilemma.
I'm sorry but this guy present some incoherence between several points (the winning part: all depends on what the initial goals were. If they failed, there's no winning. If we just talk about territorial gains, in that case Russia wins, but does this mean Russia will be able to occuppy such a large portion of Ukraine ? I strongly doubt it if we look at what happened in the Donbass region after 2014. But anyway, this is not the end of story, the war is not over. The lend lease act during WWII was exponential as well, meaning slow at the beggining and fast and decisive at the end) and especially doesn't seem to understand what happened in the European Union since the invasion of Ukraine. The only way for Germany to be again supplied with fossil fuels from Russia is that Putin must win. This doesn't make sense. Although we can surely say that Germany was in the first place reluctant for many explainable reasons to not be able to fully supply Ukraine with military equipment, the only way Putin would be left to win, followed by negociations, would be a regime change in one of the major countries in the EU, in France it would be with the far right or far left taking the power; they are pro Putin. Or in Germany, with a collapse of the coalition. At this moment, after the many massacres in Ukraine, the way things are now it is quasi impossible to go backwards and talk to Putin like nothing happened to make an agreement and let Ukraine loose a large part of the country. And even in this case, except Russia of course, the only country that can really decide whether this war has to stop or not it is the USA. They are the only country to be able to supply Ukrain with such a large amount of military equipment. No other country can do that. This means that Germany will do what the USA tell them to do. And I can add, that still on the political level if one of the major western countries in the EU, had today the idea to make an arrangement with Putin in th back of Zelensky, I can tell you it would be the end of the EU, and therefore the end of german economic power. The east and west europeans within the EU would just break up on that point due to the history towards Russia of their respective countries.
this man is very quick witted but, perhaps as a consequence, the sum of what he is saying lacks coherence, in my opinion.
It's not about military equipment, once the money stops flowing to Ukraine the end of war will be near. Initial goals were clear from the start: demilitarization (neutralizing Ukrainian armed forces) and denazification (removing right-winger loonies from governing structures).
LOL. Who is here after Ukraine retakes Kharkiv and Kherson?
Russia did say no eventually, and a country without a navy destroyed the great red Russian navy. 11 boats in 10 days.
Very interesting and very informative conversation 👍 👏 👌
It appears that Andrew's "assessments and calculus" of the Ukraine invasion comes off too smelling of his personal political beliefs rather than actual empirical data that he keeps trying to claim he is going off of.
I think that he has a professional deformation that leads him to the biggest mistake of every side of the conflict - hugely overestimating Russians, and state of their army/weapons. He is so deep into the rabbit hole he actually believes Russia is playing some bigger game here. Dude drops the ball the moment he tries to claim that reassessing a grand war plan 3 times is totally fine for an army and Russians have it under control. You have no idea how much bribery is going on right now to sound those opinions, he either fell for them because for years he has been afraid of russians professionally, or he's straight paid/blackmailed to say those things. Every time I question somebody's opinion I remember the quote that "Propaganda is designed to put doubt into minds" and his 'opinion' does sound like that, I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's doing it unconsciously/without malice.
he did give the ukes a 20% chance to win. that seems about right to me.
@@peetky8645 Assigning such a chance, or any chance is clowning. What does %20 mean?... If they fight 5 times, Ukraine wins?
@@cagribaba4464 No that means every time they fight there is still a 20% chance.
I don't understand what Bustamante is basing his assessment on. The Russian advance is pretty much a crawl, and this is without having to siege major cities such as Odessa. I do not see how they could conquer the south all the way up to and including Odessa in basically 2-3 months. Furthermore, Odessa itself is way better fortified than Mariupol. And by the way, the ONLY way Russians were able to take Mariupol was by essentially bombing it to the point where it's a smoldering ruin. If, as Bustamante says, they wouldn't use that strategy in Odessa then I truly don't see how he expects them to conquer the city. I also don't think the support given to Ukraine is NOTHING. I agree that the support could be much better, but it IS making a difference. Even the power to hit Russian bases, supply depots and so on at a distance behind the frontline is an amazing advantage to have. Not to mention whatever that hit in Crimea was, not even sure how Ukrainians accomplished that exactly but it looks like they took out a bunch of Russian airplanes on the ground. When Bustamante says there's no economic benefit to the West to support Ukraine I think he's extremely wrong. I get the argument about the US, a country sitting an ocean away from the conflict. However, if Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine he will not stop and proceed to exert military control over Moldova and, if necessary Belarus thus becoming considerably stronger and more dangerous over time. This would directly imperil EU member countries as they will now share a direct and large frontier with Russia as well as suffer the consequences of waves upon waves of refugees from all those battlefields.
They don't have to take Odessa its enough to take the shore around the city or more specifically north and south.
its called war of attrition
Thank you , great interview. Everything he say makes sense , even after 1 year
lol. Both were talking out of their asses 😁😂😂
Gosh, this hasn’t aged well!
Lmao.
6:48 Does he really think if Russia takes Ukraine the sanctions will be lifted? He is just so wrong on so many points it's unbelievable.
Russia is doing great at the moment the Ruble is the best it's ever been and the sanctions have back fired on the west especially the US and UK
What if you are wring?
Russia doesn't want to take Ukraine. It wants to chop it in half to end Ukraine's civil war. Russia can only successfully annex the pro russian parts of ukraine, because they much prefer living in Russia.
@@michaelcarney6280 LOL Ruble is not even traded on exchanges and Russian companies are forced to convert 80% of their foreign currencies to rubles. Ruble is dead right now.
@@peter.g6 wrong anyone buying oil or gas has to pay in Roubles get your head out of the MSM arse
Andys prediction that Ukraine would fall by autumn 2022 was incorrect; as was his prediction Ukraine would fall within 14 days - however good his analysis is he’s not infallible.
Oh, God- Andryusha, don't. You're so not in the same league.
While I respect the man's opinion, he was proven incorrect about his asssesment of the battlefield, which makes me doubt everythign else he says about Russia's stauts in the war.
He wasn’t though.
@@JoelEmmettMcGarrity Russia is withdrawing from Kherson,the man was dead wrong,stop the cap..
Wow. This didn’t age well…
The US and NATO are nations of endless WARS. We are not the good guys anymore. Even our elections are crooked.
Very good analysis!
This didn't age well
Haven't watched the entire video, but the lend lease act doesn't put Ukraine into debt - If something is destroyed, it's automatically written off, after the war Ukraine can return all the equipment that is not destroyed OR they can buy it from USA, which is a lot different than putting a country into debt.
To this I would add, what is this debt in comparison of a partially destroyed Ukraine or even worse a country taken over, occupied and colonized by Russia again for many decades with all what that implies regarding the population, freedom, economy, etc ? To me, this part is laughable. And actually seems even quite weird at many levels that kind of consideration comes from a former CIA spy.
If Russia wins do they have an obligation to return the gear/pay the debt Ukraine accumulated?
@@Salvara Unfortunately I don't know that part, never even thought of that
It took the Brits paying back the land-lease 65 years and you saying they just had to return the tanks to avoid it? You are so funny. Please take a look at the current 54bn loan's structure, how much of that is for weapons and for what else ukraine needs to pay for. Eye opening stuff.
@@coderentity2079 Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Please read about the lend lease act. "The terms of the agreement provided that the materiel was to be used until returned or destroyed. (...) Supplies that arrived after the termination date were sold to the United Kingdom at a large discount" "The Lend-Lease agreements with 30 countries provided for repayment not in terms of money or returned goods, but in "joint action directed towards the creation of a liberalized international economic order in the postwar world."" "Britain wished to retain some of this equipment in the immediate post-war period. In 1946, the post-war Anglo-American loan further indebted Britain to the U.S. Lend-Lease items retained were sold to Britain at 10% of nominal value" The debt Britain paid was exactly for keeping the items and that was a new loan, which was set to be paid over 50 years, not that they needed that much time. And it was paid off in 2006, just as agreed, instead of 2020
I would like to see revisit to this video from this span of time and developments.
Nothing about this man strikes me as being ex military or ex CIA?
Well, this aged like milk
It actually aged like fine wine!
@@hatimaheddar2411 He literally said they'd take Odessa all the way into Moldova before the fall of 2022. It's now 2024 and they still don't have full control over Kherson oblast let alone Odessa or Moldova. Edit: He also said that people all over NATO were going to freeze to death because they are so reliant on russkie gas. You are very incorrect.
@@Omevoc I don't think the russian ever stated their goals. But even if they did, being wrong on timing is very normal in military affairs. All that matters is they are winning the war, and Ukraine's military is probably close to complete collapse. They had a chance in March 2022 to avoid all this mess, but they went along with the west.
@@hatimaheddar2411 They did multiple times. We are also talking about this person's view not Russia's. Their military isn't even close to complete collapse. Well, they had a chance to become a russian puppet state and they absolutely refuse to, understandably. You are lost
@@Omevoc can we keep this discussion about the subject and not throw meaningless words like "you're lost" Ukraine didn't need to be a puppet state of Russia, it just needed not to be a puppet state of the USA and be neutral. Are you Ukrainian??
Lex seriously how much credibility can a CIA guest have?
Enough to put him on interview and releasing it. You decide for yourself if he made a factual error or drew bad conclusions from facts.
@@coderentity2079 if you're lex. Poor choice. If you're not lex. Why are you answering
@@mikeutube7888 I didn't know only Lex may respond to you. Did I get your pronoun right? Sorry. Next time advertise next to your opinion so we know only Lex may respond. That would clear it up.
@@coderentity2079 it says Lex. First three letters. You need bold font ?
@@mikeutube7888 say Lex and only Lex may respond. It sounds stupid because it is.
Well this has aged like milk. Nice “assessment”.
i’d love to hear what points you thought he got wrong.
This guy was well off the mark
This is a really great discussion!