Two years in to Russia's '10-day war'
It’s been over a year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A year of pain, destruction and bloodshed - Hundreds of thousands killed and millions more displaced from their homes. But it wasn’t supposed to be like this. According to a research by the think tank RUSI, when Vladimir Putin began his invasion, he expected to take control of Ukraine within 10 days. So what went wrong? Why did his plan fail? And how close did he come to succeeding?
To find out, we spoke to Ed Arnold, Research Fellow, European Security at RUSI, to uncover what went wrong for Russia during those crucial first 10 days of the conflict.
Notes - Unit movements are illustrative
'Ukraine: Photographs from the Front Line' is now open at IWM London. Plan your free visit: www.iwm.org.uk/events/iwm-lon...
SOURCES
RUSI study on the early phases of the War in Ukraine - rusi.org/explore-our-research...
ISW Interactive time-lapse of Russia's war in Ukraine - storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/...
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CREDITS
Russian military footage by Mil.ru - CC BY-SA 4.0 - creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Kremlin footage by Kremlin.ru - CC BY-SA 4.0 - creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Ukrainian footage by Armyinform.com.ua - CC BY-SA 4.0 - creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Volodymyr Zelenskyy at COP 26 by President.gov.ua - CC BY-SA 4.0 - creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Vladimir Putin photograph by Kremlin.ru - CC BY-SA 4.0 - creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Location map of Ukraine by NordNordWest. CC BY-SA 3.0. creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Maps by freevectormaps.com
Someone once said to me that any military plan that includes the phrase “and then the people will rise and join us” is bound to fail.
It worked for the annexed regions. They've been fighting Kiev regime for the past 8 years.
@@ericp1139 ok ivan, i see the vodka destroyed your brain
@@ericp1139 not really? The invasion of crimea and donbass benefited from the incompetence and disorganization of the Ukrainian command after Maidan.
Iraq in the Iran Iraq war… the Us in the Iraq war. Evidently everyone thinks that the Shia minorities in the south of Iraq will join them
@@ericp1139 Soon Bryansk people's Republic and Kursk people's Republic will be liberated 😁
I would like to congratulate Putin on the 1 yr anniversary of his 10 day special military operation
thought it was a 3 day war
@@glennhearn401 inform yourself better then.
The line is properly from Comrade X, 1939. Clark Gable to Soviet Commissar: Why, I've been an admirer of your five year plan for 20 years!
I would like to congratulate america on a failed 2 decades in Afghanistan and packing up and running away like america always does. 🎉
You👹👹👹👹👹
"What is your goal?" "To stop NATO from expanding." "And how will you accomplish this?" "By giving NATO enormous incentive to expand." ''And now Finland joined NATO and we have a 1270 km long border with NATO''' Great job, Vladdy. Absolutely great. You remain a master strategist.
Lmao
And Ukrainians keep dying because of nato, great job comedian zelensky🤡
Even Ukrainian public opinion was something like 60:20 against NATO back in 2012. Then Vlad did Crimea in 2014, and suddenly it jumped to around 50:20 in favour, and since last year's it's been something like 80:3 in favour of NATO.
Putin: "We are going to Disarm and Demilitarize the Nazi regime of Ukraine" Fast Forward one year, Ukraine now has HIMARS, Leopard Tanks and will aquire F16 planes. The exact opposite of Demilitarized Putin: "The Special Military Operation is a success. They cannot win"
Nato is going to break apart,russia is more powerful now than its ever been,Ukraine is running out of people, it’s just the west doesn’t want to admit it!
Any military campaign whose planning is based on the concept that your potential opponent either won't fight or can't fight, is doomed to failure.
So Russia was able to launch the biggest surprise attack of the century cos even the Russian soldiers didnt know about the attack.
lmao
Crazy to think of Divisions of US forces driving into Canada. Then when attacked by Canadians they don't even fight back because they were just told to arrive in Montreal on Tuesday.
@@joelwillems4081 : That's basically what happened in the War of 1812. The USA invaded Canada (a British colony at that time), didn't expect the Canadians to fight back, and were badly beaten.
😂😂😂Yup mainstream.Propaganda.
no terrorussia - no problems for neighbors and the whole world!
In other words, Russia underestimated its enemy.
And overestimated itself.
@@obsidianjane4413 lol. Russia didn’t overestimate itself or underestimate Ukraine. They didn’t estimate the fact that the Western nations could interfere in this war. Ukraine would have been invaded in days had it not been for the intervention of Western nations funding Ukraine with guns, ammo and through other means.
They over estimated themselves.
@@NEXUSNEST They had to know it was a very likely possibility. That happens behind the scenes in a high percentage of wars. There was also dialogue ongoing long before the war started between US and nato allies with RUssia. They knew what was likely to happen without a doubt. But in the end they are still only fighting Ukraine, with not even top nato capability equipment.
@@beaur252 they probably knew it was a likely possibility. But they didn’t know the extent to which the western nations would help. Also, if you have noticed then you could clearly see that Russia has used less than 0.1% of its airforce. It probably means that they do not consider Ukraine as a big a threat as the USA…
What do you call a Russian tank battalion after a week of fighting? An infantry battalion
Infantry platoon :)
Infantry platoon
More like non-existent.😮
What putin doesn't realise he is neither Napoleon or Alexander with their personal military genius nor is he Hitler, with several extremely capable generals on his side and some absurd luck.
You missed a HUGE reason for the wild success in the south by Russia. The commander of that area was a Russian collaborator. All of the bridges crossing the Dnipro had been pre-mined and at the first sight of Russian aggression were supposed to be blown-they were NOT, allowing the Rusky's to just walk right into Kherson and the rest of that Oblast. The Commander was later dismissed and arrested. That was one Ukrainian problem in the early days-not knowing who in the government was friend or foe. Especially in the Security services-SBU where the US had already warned Zelensky that agency was crawling with pro-Russian or at the least, Russian sympathizers. The invasion came before Zelensky had time to clean house which is why you didn't see many FSB members dismissed or arrested until a couple of months into the war. He was too busy being the head fireman to make those decisions earlier. What Ukraine should have done was to believe the US and UK Intelligence that they started sharing with Ukraine in Ocober and Zelensky and SBU didn't believe it until the day before the invasion=they chose to believe the French who were asleep at the wheel.
Any idea of the name of the commander?
@@asasas9146 No idea. It happened a couple of months in when Zelensky dismissed me a number of SBU members also.
@@asasas9146 I think the reference is to Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych, the head of the SBU in Kherson.
Even with collaborators and critical help on the inside Russia still managed to get bogged down and have to level territory and lose it in southern counteroffensives. This war's been a disaster of epic proportions. It's interesting how Putin's made it illegal to discredit the military when that's pretty much all he's done himself.
@@annehersey9895 If you're going to openly criticize a well-sourced and informed documentary-style video from a source like Imperial War Museum... you MIGHT want to come across like not-clueless or not-completely-unprepared. Google exists.
The Ukrainian response to Russia is very telling. They know what life under Putin would be like.
It would be pretty good considering what Putin did for Russia in the 2000s, meanwhile, Ukraine is a poor and corrupt country.
@@eliasziad7864 good job, tovartistch troll, you earned tour 20 roubles for such a good comment.
@@oleksandrshymanskyi1129 What a great argument... But what do I expect from Khokhols?
@@eliasziad7864 sure, 2000's, 2010's, not so much.
@@eliasziad7864 Yeah, because Belarus, Chechnya, and Transmitria are all great places to live. Lol.
.....this didnt age well
This video aged well 🤣🤣🤣
Yeah, especially in Avdeevka.
How is it going for the russian military 2 years into the war
With the Hostomel Assault by the Russian Armed Forces, I'd say it's like Market Garden in 1944, they expected the airborne troops to hold out for a while until reinforcements could arrive and just like in Market Garden, those Reinforcements failed to arrive. Therefore, you've lost a chunk of your paratroopers and their equipment which was captured or taken by the Ukrainians.
A spot on assessment. Their offensive collapsed from that point on. Although, one must admit their force strength, to take a city of 3,000,000 was indicative of a half-hearted, let's give it a shot, attempt.
@@feedyourmind6713 thanks for the comment. I've pointed it out numerous times (even when I saw the BBC News articles) it's like Market Garden in 1944. They haven't learnt anything.
@@TankerBricks Curious, who's the "they"?
@@feedyourmind6713 the Russians. Should of read what went wrong with Operation Market Garden.
@TankerBricks Ok. Both sides have ignored history in their management of this war, though. The biggest being the piecemeal approach to prosecuting it. Ask McClellan about piecemeal battle strategies. But, keeping this regional instead of continental has something to be said for it.
“Ukraine is fighting a military. Russia is fighting a people. And that is a fight they cannot win”
Same as 20 years wasted in Afghanistan
Be sure that they will in fact win
@@makinganoise6028 Are you talking about the USSR army, murdering 2 million Afghans?
@@urospavlovic2043 And what would be next, entire extermination of non complying Ukrainian population ? Indeed, Russia can be good at that !
Reality is the exact opposite of that... Ukraine was murdering the people of Donbas, and Russia intervened to stop the Ukrainian military from massacring those civilians.
A most excellent recap of the last year. Thank you for putting this together.
You know who controls you when you know who you can not criticise.
I only saw the first 40 seconds and heard the question "how close did he come to succeed?". I can answer that straight away: Look at some of the former east block countries, like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia etc and note how supportive they are of Ukraine. There is NO way they are having any more of Ruzzia's tyranny and totalitarianism. And neither will Ukraine.
Unfortunately, there is Hungary, which has a memory that does not last back to 1956.
@@todortodorov940 I have some sympathies for the Hungarian people. They are not a large ethnic group, and if you go full EU, that means a lot of immigration that is difficult to integrate into society. The problem with today's west is that a big portion of our population thinks that anything but 100% wokeness from countries like Saudi Arabia, Hungary etc means we should just stop interacting with them. Terrible strategy, of course. I for one wants to be friendly with Hungary, without telling them they have to put up rainbow flags everywhere etc.
@@snuffeldjuret The EU / Hungary / immigration question is in my opinion a separate story. But going out and supporting Russia is reckless. If they support Russia because of the immigration question, to oppose the EU, this only shows how much they hate the EU and would prefer to live under a tyrant like Russia. Which again points their lack of memory and understanding of history.
@@snuffeldjuret Hungary is ruled by a dictator. If not liking dictators is being 'woke', well I got news for you
@@snuffeldjuret They signed treaties in which they guaranteed to uphold humans rights ect. If they choose not to comply with the treaties they signed there are consequences.
This is really underrated and possibly one of the best summaries of the opening part of the war I've seen.
No army is stronger than the one defending home.
Lol . this aged well
Watching unbiased news today, I completely agree with you. lol
There is nothing that motivates humans more than fighting a just cause. And there is nothing that demotivates humans more than fighting an evil cause.
The problem is, a powerful propaganda machine can easily convince people that they're the good guys, the enemy are animals etc. I struggle to believe that all these Russian soldiers are convinced that they're losing their lives for a good reason, but military culture is weird and essentially involves hardcore indoctrination so...
NATO and US Technically did started this war. What Russia is doing, is the same thing with America did with Cuba but on a smaller scale during the missiles crisis. America felt threaten with Cubans having missiles near Florida, while Russia feels threaten to have NATO countries surrounded them. Isn’t this a defensive action?
@@coffeelink943 No, as: 1) Back then the missiles had limited range, so they needed to be placed in cuba to reach the american mainland. Now, the advances in missile technology make distance irrelevant as any modern ICBM will be able to reach anywhere from anywhere; 2) Even if we ignore point 1, the baltics were still in NATO before the invasion and they were much closer to russian mainland that Ukraine (Estonia is only 140km from saint petersburg, the second largest city in russia).
@@coffeelink943 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Russian Kreml rat!
@@coffeelink943 no? America didn't invade and destroy Cuba, did it? Invading a country is by definition not a defensive action. Amazes me how people can bend reality to their will to convince themselves that a tyrannical despots anus tastes good. By your logic, Putins actions justify a "defensive" action from most of the world.
The early days of the invasion were like the Schlieffen Plan going off the rails in August 1914. Both the Russians and Germans split their power between too many smaller invading arms.
And Russian Empire was collapsed by German Empire.
@@AREMUP Partly
In 1914 where was the other smaller invading arms in the german west-Heer??...It was the error of 1st army which bypasses Paris in the east and not in the west...
It was bit different. Russians went with their text book deep operation, but forgot that they kinda didn't have follow-on forces - in theater or otherwise.
@@piotrd.4850 They grossly underestimated their adversary, as well.
A very well documented and well explained account of the conflict so far. The precision of a surgeon’s scalpel without puff or rambling.
Outstanding breakdown of the conflict thus far. Ukrainian victory is assured.
😂
Never interrupt your enemy as he makes a mistake
What went wrong - almost everything!
If it’s just Ukraine itself, with no NATO weapons supplies involvement, Ukraine wouldn’t last a year. Ukraine has no military capability near what Russia has
@@coffeelink943 "if they didn't have guns we would have won"
Some people try to minimize the seriousness of this unprovoked invasion of one country by another by saying,”oh well, Ukraine was a part of Russia before anyway”. Technically, they were both part of the Soviet Union. And that doesn’t give Russians the right to dictate to Ukraine anything at all.
they were part of Russia before the Soviet union though
@@randomguy6152 And the Philippines were part of the US. Doesn't change anything.
The capital of Kyivskaa Rus was in great old city of Kyiv, while Moscow city or town didn’t even existed. Ukrainians remember their history and their great ancestors.
@@Fly-the-Light but they were part of Russia for like the entire history until recently
@@Fly-the-Light Phillipines were NEVER part of the US amigo.
Great video and documentary. This is a good analysis of the fact of where things started and where they are. Thank you.
"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" Mike Tyson
Same thing that goes wrong for him every morning: he wakes up and says to himself "Blyat, it's not a dream."
and now we know that it was a withdrawal following a signed draft deal
The huge courage of the Ukrainians fighting and the great leadership of their commander in chief Zaluzhnyi fighting the criminal invaders gave president Zelenskiy the necessary arguments to convince the western world to help Ukraine.
is he the hohol who lost a massive chunk of the ukrop army while surrendering Bakhmut?
No, the western world convinced Kyiv to fight to the last Ukrainian in order to weaken Russia. Kyiv wanted to sign a peace deal but it was stopped by the west, remember?
@@mezjean5966 nope. We don't want a peace deal. Jews can't negotiate with Hitler.
@@mezjean5966source?
@@mezjean5966 Ukraine was already invaded by Russia and they didnt want the Russians to easily stroll in and take Ukraine just like Crimea. Plus Putin will want Ukraine as a "buffer" state to NATO. Plus the 2014 Ukrainian revolution was due to a leader who was sympathized to Russia/Putin just like Belarus. Plus the western world didnt even think Ukraine could survive the "second" strongest military even for a few days since they werent even prepared for it so there wasn't a thought in other countries minds that it would cause a war of attrition. Ukraine would've provided arable land, more resources and more dominance over the Black sea. The only likely countries would've been the UK or US since they told Zelensky of Putin's plan.
Dicatorial regime seeks to prop up its rule with a Short Victorious War that turns out to be neither short nor victorious. How many times have we seen that in history?
Soilders when battles. Logistics win wars.
at 3:03 isnt that a clip from the 2008 Georgian Russian war?
In fairness to Russia, they have been walking into other countries on their doorstep for years in a virtually uncontested manner. So it was probably not entirely unreasonable that they had planned and hoped to do the same here. Difference here obviously is Ukraine has the will to fight whilst it is still being armed and supplied by third nations.
The difference is Ukraine was very quickly armed by nato
Those other countries were tiny puppies compared to Ukraine, which is the largest nation in Europe after Russia and with about a third of Russias population. Only delusion would make you think invading that would be a 3-10 day operation, no matter how many defenseless small countries you have destroyed beforehand.
@@tomorbataar5922 Not quite; the Russians underestimated the level of rearming the Ukrainian army received. A 2014-level Ukrainian army would've likely been swept aside easily.
@@Transilvanian90Yeah. Why do they still have army in Syria and Africa? Almost no aid from BRICS. They treat it like clown show for the poor. Russia could take whole Europe in months with full army. If NATO didn't wanted the war they would not sell military equipment to Russia and buy resources worth billions each year from Russia. Looks like everyone wants the conflict last as long as possible.
Russia has invaded Ukraine countless times over the past 600 or so years. Russia's victories have always been pyrrhic. Don't know why anyone thought it'd go differently in 2022.
" Never Underestimate Your Enemy "
I used to think of the Russian war machine as a mighty juggernaut rivaled only by the US military. Not anymore!
Neither has ever been true.
@@Poliss95 that’s very evident now. The only smart decision made by Putin during this invasion was to wait until Trump was out of office before attacking.
@@armnoir668 Trump and the Repugnicons would have supported Putin whole-heartedly.
@@SueFerreira75 yeah sure, the russians interfered in 2016, but god forbid if 2020 was rigged
Nobody rivals the USA, not even China. That is why the USA owns the world.
The title of this video didn't age well.
Neither did most of the comments. lol
There are some similar experiences with the Indians vs mongols. The mongols had been continuing to harass/raid indian villages in a very small scale for many years. And this had made the Indians aware of their tactics and how to defeat horse archers. So when the day came that the Mongols actually attacked in full scale they were repelled by trained Indians. I think we can see some of the same lessons here. If Russia hadnt attacked Ukraine in 2014, and made a full surprise attack now in 2022, this might have gone down quite differently.
Russian people don't realize it, but their true ancestors are the mongols. And they're only repeating their story.
@@Morphomerle even 500 years later people still treat Mongolia like a horde of bloodthirsty barbarians and use the name of the mongols to insult any large landmass invaders from the east...
@@Zenovarseit’s not even really an insult in this case, as the mongol empire had a huge impact on muscovy and later on the tsardom of russia
@@Cigmacica they took all the worst parts of mongol empire and just massacred for 500 years
@@Cigmacica fake
It will be decades until the history of this conflict can be properly written, but this is a start of understanding what and why. One day, perhaps, there will be evidence from inside Russia of the decision-making process that led to this disaster.
not hard to guess
Dont think Russian will ever open up their archives and release the information regarding the war. Ukraine probably will after a while
Thats pretty simple. Putin has taken Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union from a communist state to more like a fascist state as Nazi Germany in WW II. Everything, down to the minutia is decided by Putin. Shoot he has to, because he keeps killing any and all other top Russian leaders in the military, and politics. Just like Hitler did. It's called equal parts paranoia and insanity. All from a man with zero military experience and no respect for human life. When you have to force your troops to fight at gunpoint I think says it all.
a lot of the decision making process can be gleaned from the make up and condition of the invading forces.
Don't forget due to corruption and a power struggle. Not to mentionmysteriouss deaths.
How the hell do you lose with a 12 to 1 advantage in numbers? Prime example of poor logistics and planning in modern war
Ukraine had the numerical advantage in the first 10 months of this war, and nonetheless Russia is and was winning, not losing. Unless you call losing a fifth of your territory for winning. Look at the casualties, Ukraine lost all their battlehardened troops, while the Russian Forces are still intact. Ukraine lost all it's tanks, so that they now have to beg the West for more equipment - and that in spite of their numerical superiority on the battlefront. Ukraine has come out of this conflict as a band of beggars, who like to boast, but who have nothing to have their boasting in. The individual Ukrainian soldiers are very brave, but it doesn't really matter, when your commander-in-chief and president is a professional clown.
You are going to suffer when the truth destroys your cognitive dissonance. Russia is begging for help. Ukraine is reviewing help. Russia has lost its trained troops. Ukraine had a half million volunteers right away and its grown since then. You will see when the mud hardens. But regardless. Russhists have zero reason or right to be in Ukraine. Zero. And now the imperialist fascist Moscovites are going to lose territories outside of Ukraine because Vladolf Putler was turned into a joke along with the ruZZian military by the master comedian Zelensky. You have nothing.
@@vonduus LOL. Thanks I needed a laugh. Nothing you wrote is accurate.
@@vonduus Why is it taking so long for Russia to take over Ukraine, then?
@@obsidianjane4413 you are welcome, except everything i wrote was accurate, and you know it.
A really clear summary. Thanks.
He's he still losing?
Nope. This conflict has always been a bad decision by the West.
I am proud of Ukraine ❤
I'm not 🤮.
@@dancotton13 no one cares about you
ruzzians army is 10 times larger then our and they failed
@@dancotton13 support ruzzian invaiders?
@@eugenes9620 It seems that they didn't.
If Putin reasoned that Ukrainians were not different from Russians then he should have known that the fight would not be easy.
I’ve been saying that since the beginning. For a people with such a hero worship of WWII, you would think they would understand how hard the Ukrainians would be willing to fight to protect themselves.
@@ronkolek613 : Russians blame Ukrainians for the early Soviet defeats during Operation Barbarossa, after which Ukraine was completely overrun by the invading Axis forces.
@@ronkolek613 I guess you could chalk that up to Russian imperialist arrogance. To them Ukrainians have always been "little Russians", servile and simple in need of "protection" by the "real Russians".
This will be studied for decades.
This video will be laughed at for decades.
This aged well 6 months later still at war
Over 1 year already most people were expecting ukraine to fall in a few weeks glad it turned out much different
indeed, but also a lot of regret about how we could have taken this threat more seriously a decade ago.
Excellent video about the early days of the russian invasion. Thanks for the clear explanations and in depth analsysis !
@TheWW2BooksGuy No, Russian rat.
Not much
Well, apparently you were wrong 😂 I guess now the whole west underestimated Russia
Give the Russians enough time and they will win the war. It had always been like that. No one underestimates Russia. From the beginning Ukraine couldn’t stand against them. It’s the truth like it or not. The two countries have very similar armies. But Russia has the numbers.
I always assumed Putin believed his own hype or yes men. On paper Russia is supposed to be a first rate military with cutting edge weapons and large numbers of professional soldiers. In reality it seems like there is a lot of corruption draining money from their military budget so their equipment is not modern and the soldiers seem to be not the highest quality. The real army of course didn't perform to expectations because those expectations were based upon what they had on paper. But I think it extends to the other side too, for Russia I think the notion was Ukraine was really a Russia-lite country where a small cabal had seized power, a nation yearning for Russia to come and save them. They expected Ukrainians would greet them as liberators like US GIs rolling into WW2 France. Clearly they were mistaken. At least thats my assumption.
Well, the Russians shouldn't have expected that reaction from ethnic Ukrainians, only from ethnic Russians.
@@timonsolus Thing is I'm not even sure some Russians believe there is true ethnic Ukrainians. I think some believe Ukrainians are just ethnic Russians who hate Russia for some "strange reason" and made up Ukraine culture. To them "the" Ukraine has always historically been a part of Russian and therefore part of its culture.
It wasn't just US forces that liberated France.
@@timonsolusLike ethnic Russians don't know how bad Putin is. Political loyalties aren't genetic.
@@AA-hg5fk while that is true, us troops were the most numerous and captured the most territory. Plus it’s just an example.
No matter who the invader is, a fully mobilized society is hard to overcome.
And a sustained guerilla insurgency, near impossible
When you kill messengers who bear bad news, the messengers will soon avoid giving you bad news.
This was a fantastic recap!
Excellent video!' I well remember the days of nail-biting and pray immediately following 24 Feb. May we soon see Russia defeated. Slava Ukraini!
Back then I remember thinking it was great that Ukraine was able to hold out for a week, but the resistance couldn't last much longer. Boy was I wrong.
What went wrong , in my book it started years ago with their own arrogant belief that they had a invincible modern day Army which was portrayed firstly by their big bs annual May day shiny toy parade in Moscow and those big open area mechanised manoeuvres with lots of armoured vehicles etc , and yet underneath all of that , it was really all smoke and mirrors , a relic ,badly maintained with poorly trained and equipped conscripts with senior officers who really didn't have a grasp on how to fight a modern day combined arms warfare , especially in an urban environment, and as they say , ones troops are only as good as the people who lead them , and yet today this arrogance and deflection still prevails , more so the continues big exotic announcements , aka new shiny toys , the usual sabre rattling and talking up their nuclear deterrent, and yet they still haven't managed to master the basics and deserve to be beaten by Ukraine !
Even in Soviet times, military exercises went like this: "Advance to point X by 10:00 AM. Arrive at Y at 7 PM." Officers were punished for taking initiative, like, reconnoitering the local area if they arrive at X two hours early. They just rested if they arrived at some objective early. RESTED.
Completely agree. In fact if it were 40 years ago, today's Russian military would be a force to be reckoned with but modern warfare moves fast and the Soviet/Russian instinct is to dig in and become static targets. But wait you say. What about Russsian numbers? Can't they just overwhelm their enemy? They could in theory but they didn't even mobilize enough human meat bags for such tactics, even today they don't have enough people for proper Chinese style human wave attacks. Their butts are cooked and they know it.
In the doctrine of the Soviet Union that Putin admires war is a manifestation of class strugle and military force is a secondary factor. As an oligarch bourgeoisie I think Putin had to substitute Russian nationalism for class, but still focused on culture and history over military preparedness.
Еще никто ни кого не победил!
@@artem-eremin Конечно, но сейчас мы видим лучше оснащенную, лучше обученную и, что немаловажно, более мотивированную армию по сравнению с русскими! это ключ к победе в этой войне
Wonder how it would be if we revisit the situation, now.
lmfao, "Putin lost" K
From what I saw, from captured documents, the plan was to take Kyiv in the first 10 hours.
What captured documents?
@@zambotv8150 Were you hibernating in December when the details were released? I did make one small mistake. The plan was to take Kyiv in 13 hours, not 10.
The fools were carrying dress uniforms for the parade in Kyiv instead of food, fuel or ammo! The sheer hubris!
That's laughable, they must've been really confident, even though this would be the first time Russia has used its military in such a way.
@@Diggnuts It’s like Trump said. Putin thought the invasion would be a “48 hour deal.” Now he’s paying the price.
Well executed,informative feature......👍🇮🇪🇺🇦
Go on ya gud thing.
Odesa, not "Odessa"!!! Correct the spelling, please.
I'm from Odessa. It's always been Odessa
Excellent video, but could you change a word please? Around 8:28 you mention the "Ukrainian regime". You should change "regime" to "government".
Good summary of events so far without too much one sided narrative, well done!
very concise and informative.☮ The maps are well detailed.
I’ve been shopping at Dollar General in order to save money. But they are getting too expensive. Does anyone know where I can find a Dollar Cadet?
Yes, I lost in 10 days))) I wonder what this "expert" will say now)))
I’m proud to support Ukraine 🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸
@@MrJ027 Kremlin puppet.
@@Poliss95 russias ideology is > western ideology, looking at the state of the west economy they’re not doing any better
@@MrJ027 swedes and fins love Ukraine as well. And Norwegians.
@@MrJ027 U about to be mobilised 🤡
We appreciate it. We can defend ourselves thanks to support from all understanding people. 🇺🇦🇺🇲🇪🇺🇬🇧🇨🇦
Putin: "Plan B? We don't need no stinking Plan B." Ah yes, Russian planning.
Don't laugh, Russian average IQ is 55
If there was to be a Plan B, it would simply involve throwing more men into the meat grinder and take objectives by sheer weight of numbers.
You need an update. Almost 2 years now. What is going on by results... Forecast?
Theres a lot wrong with this analysis (1) RUS were largely organised as BTG (2) top driven and few quality NCOs (3) No schwerpunkt, point of overwhelming force or overmatch (4) did not gain air superiority (5) UA forces had a plan for defence in depth (6) They had fully mapped artillery kill boxes (7) They had plans for SMUT at pinch points with JAV/NLAW (8) They made excellent use of the land scape, blowing where necessary key bridges e.g. across the IRPIN River (9) Flooded key areas making them impassable e.g. east of IRPIN River (10) Held critical river crossings e.g. CHERNIV forcing RUS into marshland west of DESNA River - (8), (9) and (10) stopped the fall of KYIV (just one example of tactical nouse). (11) had a very good understanding of RUS logistics and timing. (12) Poor RUS training and RUS equipment. I could go on but won't. This review underestimates UA capability and willingness to fight and overestimates RUS ability to mount and sustain the logistics of a major campaign. Another key point, the invasion of UA is a war of aggression and a WAR CRIME. Wars are won by logistics and the application of overwhelming force. At this point in time RUS failed at both the former and the latter, however RUS might just keep on feeding shells and meat into the grinder until they get a pyrrhic victory. Whilst the US and UK have provided significant war materiel, monetary support and in-country on ground advisors, the rest of Western Europe is failing UA. History will judge much of Western Europe and the EU harshly for their perfidious behaviour. Remember this, Europe played footsie with the Russian Bear to get access to cheap RUS gas to keep going with an inane and completely unrealistic green and woke climate based agenda for short term political gain. Remember this, most NATO members failed to uphold their commitments to NATO and openly laughed at those who told you it would end in disaster. Remember this, you now have the blood of 500,000 UA-RUS casualties on your hands, have pushed RUS into the arms of CHN and emboldened the military aspirations of CHN. Well done EU, take a bow - by being weak and foolish you have put the world on course for a major conflict.
Wonderfully concise analysis, which has offered me the chance to learn still more about the initial stages of the Russian invasion. Slava Ukraini
I hate to see Russia stoop this low 😢
@@SERGEYTIMOFEYOVICH I am part ethnic Siberian on my mothers side. Born and raised in the United States. I have always had a deep affection for the traditions of my grandmother’s land. The Russian people are close to my heart, but their forms of government have always been terrible.
@@stoneymcneal2458 I am from Нижний Новгород (Nizhny Novgorod). Moved away in 2016. I was tired of Putin. Plus a corrupt judicial system and restrictions on personal rights. He made himself de facto president for life too so he will be there as long as he is alive probably. It is not as bad as the Soviet days but in Russia you don’t have as many rights and privileges you have in say USA. Crazy part is those guy take it for granted and are so willing to give up their rights 😂😂. The people are great there though. Unfortunately the government betray them.
@@stoneymcneal2458 сибиряк по материнской линии🙂Привет из Ермаковского!
@@SERGEYTIMOFEYOVICH lol. You don't know much about the USA, do you? Топ кек, человек.
Very good video! Excellent reporting. Thank you
I'm just curious what happens now???I really have great respect for the Ukraine people 👍 and wish them luck against Goliath !!!
The invasion was lost before it started because it was based on myths. The myth of Russian military effectiveness / strength. The myth of a weak Ukraine. And finally the myth of western complacency.
Excellent, no frills or waffle just facts and insight into what is going on, just how us Brits like it. 🇬🇧 🇺🇦
Disagree the upper class love to waffle on
The Brits was sold all their information to America in ww2 because they fear German and want someone to protect them against this war machine of hitler hahahah and this video is just Liebig propaganda hahahahaha Russia has destroy Ukraine because Ukraine wan to destroy together with the us the Russian borders, Putin need one nuke and delete all Ukraine so stfu
Excellent summary, well done.
well he seems to be winning now! where do you get your info, the bbc?
Pretty informative bro!
Outstanding analysis. Glad I checked this channel out and gave it a 👍. Brief, concise, yet thorough-- everything the West has come to expect from the Brits. 😉
Thanks to the backup from Boris, shame about the name...
Best explanation of what happened in those first days of the "smo". Still pulling for Ukraine!
standing with Ukraine is like standing in a turd or standing with NATO in Afghanistan before it surrendered to the Taliban
Well this aged poorly
2 years of war and Russia stilk can't conquer Ukraine . Just accept the invasion was a failure
@@ananthu8534 keep malding.
This didn’t age well…
Didn't?
@@TheLaualamp ?
Putin massively overestimated the strength and quality of Russia's armed forces, and massively underestimated the strength of Ukraine's. And maybe he wasn't expecting so much material aid from NATO.
Yes. That said, Western news / propaganda tends to do the reverse. They're presenting the Russian army as utter buffoons and you'd expect the Russians to lose the war in a week, and yet it's ongoing. Both sides have a tendency to lie.
He thought they would be welcomed. But the Ukrainians remembered the holodomor.
I think the main reason for their loss is the really amazing quote of "I need ammunition, not a ride"
Is the IWM going to revise their evaluation?
They say that to rule a foreign country and to quell partisan attacks, one needs at least 1% of the population size as an occupation force. Even with, say, 10 million Ukrainian refugees seeking shelter in other countries, the Russian army would have needed about 330'000 soldiers in Ukraine, at all times. And that's a low estimate to begin with. An enormous drain on the Russian resources. The German population was tired of the war, and the Allied forces were pretty much safe in Germany after the Nazi government's capitulation. The Ukrainian isn't, and will never be. They remember 1932-1933.
What does 1932-1933 have to do with anything? In that case, Russia also remembers 1921-1922. The entirety of Ukraine was created by the Soviet Union, the country created by Lenin.
@@eliasziad7864 that’s a lie. Ukraine had short lived country doing ww1 when they were fighting for independence against imperial Russia. War ended, German and Austrian weapon shipments stopped and the Soviet Union picked up where Russia left of. And Ukraine lost in 1921 doing a 4 year war of independence. And even that, we have Kiev-Rus and after that the cossack state which is where the land is called Ukraine.
@@mikkel066h Ukraine in 1917 was literally created by Germany to be a puppet, ukrainians never fought against Imperial Russia. Lenin is the one who signed the treaty of brest litovsk creating ukraine.
@@eliasziad7864 Please explain your logic when you say that Lenin created Ukraine. So there were some misterious millions of people living in those lands, they were given that land by Russia and later Lenin created Ukraine? Is that what you're saying? Can it be that the Ukrainian people have been under the Russian occupation for at least 3 centuries, which tried over and over again to erase as much as possible of the Ukrainian identity?
@@chipishor A lot of territories of modern Ukraine are those territories which were given to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev. If they didn't, then in 1991 Ukraine would have neither western Ukraine nor southeastern Ukraine. Only the center.
It was interesting how despite Russia's heavy dependence on surface-to-air missiles they were completely unable to suppress Ukraine's SAM network. Even before the introduction of more modern American and European systems the Russians had completely failed at SEAD and lost a significant number of their best fighter-bombers like the Su-34 and helicopters like the KA-52. The KA-52 fleet in particular has been decimated.
Russia has like 200 KA-52 fleet and they lost around 25-30 until now, and lost a couple of SU-34s out of the many they have. Don't spread lies.
@@eliasziad7864 That's just on paper! IN REALITY, no one knows what and how many they have, and less in good condition, all thx to exorbitant corruption.
@@eliasziad7864 Many will not fly again as they have been stripped for spares. Half the Ka52 fleet is known to be grounded with issues.
@@eliasziad7864 cope
@@eliasziad7864 33 ka-52 and 19 SU-34 had been shot down with photographic evidences. You are cute believing every sample manufactured to be in flying conditions.
Putin’s ambitions far exceeds his ability. Not everyone can be a Tzar.
Pain, pain, pain, seas of pain. But we are still alive.
'10 day war', maybe its time to renamed it as the '10 years war'.
Sadly you may be right
An excellent analysis. Thanks
A nation such as Ukraine which has the perseverance and the will to refuse defeat, cannot be defeated.
Exceptionally well done thank you
*The ORCS Never Expected 🍍Pineapples to be dropped from Drones into T72 Tank Turrets !*
He thought this would basically be the same German invasion of Austria in 1938, boy was he wrong
thank you for talking about it
When the war has begun, like many others, I was certain that Ukraine has no chance to even defend itself for more than a week. Their possible victory didn't even cross the mind at that time and yet we're a year in and Ukraine still stands strong. The amount of troops and war machines is really not everything even nowadays, huh. Cause you know, objectively looking at the Ukrainian military and the Russian military at the start of the conflict, you'd never ever think that Ukraine has ANY chance. However, here we are lul
Many experts were not actually surprised of the poor Russian performance. They've been reading from open-source intelligence of the sorry state of the Russian military due to its...surprise...surprise....corruption. Many soldiers complain of the lack of supplies and adequate facilities even during times of peace. Of course, Russia being a dictatorial country, the tsar only surrounds himself with yes men who fed his ego and were too afraid to tell him the truth.
The war began in 2014 with the fact of NATO's invasion of sovereign Ukraine by a coup d'etat in the capital of Ukraine, Kiev. Which was opposed by residents of eastern Ukraine in the Donbass region, which was immediately bombed by the forces of the NATO puppet regime in Kiev. Thus, having started this war in 2014, which continues to this day, and which was joined by a limited contingent of the Russian army in 2022, in the role of direct military assistance to the forces of the native co-population of Ukraine in the East of Ukraine in the Donbas. Educational program from a resident of eastern Ukraine, which NATO forces could not occupy in 2014
@@rodjarrow6575 The "coup" BS again. You don't invade a sovereign country under a trumped up pretext which the UN itself had found to be already unsubstantiated. The UN said there isn't systematic oppression of Russian-speakers in Eastern Ukraine by Kyiv. If there is, it is mostly on person to person basis which is not government sanction. Funny that if someone made the analogy of Turkey invading the entirety of Cyprus under the pretext to "protect Turks in Northern Cyprus", or the Republic of Ireland invading Northern Ireland "to protect Irish Catholics", as both violation of UN Charter to uphold national sovereignty, you get crickets from Kremlin apologists. You know, Putin could have assuaged and calmed Russian-speakers diplomatically-- like the Irish republic tempering Irish nationalists in Northern Ireland-- instead of escalating by invading Crimea and stoking pro-Russians in Donbas. Shortly before the invasion of Crimea, there were Russian "peacekeepers" stationed in Donbas to prevent further Ukrainian advances. Now, some spin doctors might say Putin changed his mind in light of supposed aggression and circumstanes, but that doesn't justify invading an entire sovereign country. That's like Turkish "peacekeepers" in Northern Cyprus crossing the border and invading the rest of Cyprus for whatever made up and half baked cassus belli to justify violating national sovereignty of another internationally recognised independent nation.
@@rodjarrow6575 Yeah, people don't seem to understand that ethnic Russians living in Ukraine were treated like Black Americans in the 1950s. This is a situation that Russia could not tolerate, not to mention the potential of NATO membership for Ukraine and missiles based only a few hundred kilometers from Moscow. The West pushed Ukraine into maintaining this conflict when a simple negotiation with Russia could have prevented it. Thus, we are where we are today. It will be interesting to watch all of these videos when the conflict is finally over.