Why we make bad decisions | Dan Gilbert
2008 ж. 16 Жел.
1 874 651 Рет қаралды
www.ted.com Dan Gilbert presents research and data from his exploration of happiness -- sharing some surprising tests and experiments that you can also try on yourself. Watch through to the end for a sparkling Q&A with some familiar TED faces.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Watch the Top 10 TEDTalks on TED.com, at www.ted.com/index.php/talks/top10
I wish more TED talk videos would include a discussion at the end, because that's where the proposed ideas are tested, scrutinised, and criticised by other great minds. It helps you put things in perspective. Often, stories sound too good to be true, and appear to have perfect logic, simply because you are not questioning them as you listen. Having an audience full of TED attendees do that for you and hearing what they have to say really adds to the experience.
Mathijs g. G g Tieken
Agreed. It's too bad that many don't, but it's a good thing that they are all open to comment on KZhead... even though KZhead commenters aren't "great minds".
30:04 was a great example
i love that idea this would be the better decision for all media/mediums of discussion buuuuuuuuuuuuuuut.. people....
Mathijs Tieken, that would be absolutely fantastic. To have after each red talk a real life discussion where people ask questions, advice, more depth, come with real life cases and experiences!!
I used to think i was indecisive, but now i'm not so sure.
+andy elliott * slow clap *
No, I'm not now. Well, maybe a bit occasionally.
Good one!
U made my day
back of the net!
The same as his other talks, Dan Gilbert never fails to surprise me with his exceedingly astonishing facts, while showing us the undeniably funny and foolish aspects of some of our behaviours.
30:00 The guy makes a good point. The so-called 'rush' of playing a game is often better than actually winning it. Though the win would something like double that same rush
Tamas Egyed I thought what the rush guy said was a lot more interesting and insightful than anything dan Gilbert said actually
Which is a perfect example of "ignorance is bliss." If the people actually realized how insanely stupid it is to play because you won't win, they wouldn't get nearly as big of a rush.
That dude probably owns shares in the lottery lmao
Oh what a rush! I guessed the first 2 numbers again on one of my 100 tickets!! What are the odds of that!? lol Gambling is a waste of money. The "rush" is worthless. You can play a video game with fake money if you're not concerned about actually winning. They wouldn't pay if there was no prize for winning.
This man is a gifted presentator ~ love his ‘real’ attitude!
personally, i'd go as far as to say that this might be one of the more important TED talks released, & should have more views. dan's explanations on bad decision making IMO is just so incredibly fundamental to how all humans on this earth behave & respond, and understanding these behaviors could def. lead us to a more peaceful world.. his words during the talk at the video's end about "terrorism" i think are ENOURMOUSLY important insights for people today in actually dealing w/ matters like this
I wonder if part of the reason why people choose the $50 now vs. the $60 in a month is less about impatience and more about certainty. What if the subject forgets to pick up the $60 or the source of the money skips down or goes bankrupt? This factor may not enter into the parameters of the thought experiment but it could subconsciously influence the subjects decision. 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' if you will.
Good point. It could still be an error, but it is a learned response, as well as an evolutionary one. For early humans it was more likely that "tomorrow may never come.' For us, we may have learned not to trust. If you get that $50 now, you KNOW you've got it. If you wait, there is still uncertainty. - So it's not JUST impatience.
Exactly! It also relys on faith or trust that the offer will still be honored in a month.
Yeah, that's an incredibly bad way to gauge intelligence. The "right" answer is subjective for each individual given the context -- their current financial status or use for the money. It is a matter of significance for many -- would you prefer 5 cents now or 6 cents in 6 months? As it is an insignificant value, most people wouldn't care for either amount, let alone waiting for one. For most people, the difference of $10 is negligible, even if the difference is 20% more. Also, while many wouldn't be able to gain more than 20% interest in a month, it is wrong to assume no one can. Another reason for preferring the money sooner could be the anticipation of a "time sensitive" deal offering more than 20% savings (assuming the availability of the extra money was the catalyzing factor for the purchase). Could having an extra $50 now help you avoid a $30 late fee in some bill? In other words, the "right" answer is different for each individual case, especially as the question is phrased in a manner where the individual is expected to consider their current circumstances.
But at least in my case, I trust, I really trust and I chose $60 bucks in a month and of course un 13 months. I think it is a small amount then... but maybe if it was millions, I would change my decision.
I agree with this point. The speaker talks about the importance of context a lot during decision making and this clearly is a relevant context. Another thought, if you change the number to $5000 and $6000 respectively, I wonder whether that will make a difference.
That second to last "question" was brutal and is so true.
Love TED intro, I don't need my ears anyway.
Too bad there is a dumb BMW ad. BMWs are so boring. Tesla is the only interesting luxury car maker.
😂😂😂😂
Speaking about the plague...
Lmfaooo 😂😂😂😂
I cannot like this enough! Helps me immensely with one of my biggest problems - decision making
Probably one of the best TED talks I've seen in a while. Bravo!
This is the best thing I've ever watched. Thank you. I'm blessed.
That was a great talk! I truly love TED for publishing these.
Awesome lecture. One of the best I've found. Thank you. We needed that.
Watching in 2021 and thinking about the covid pandemic when he speaks at minute 25:00 about a plague. Profound clip!
I don't know why so many people have disliked this video. This I think one of the most outstanding Ted Talk among others.
shirish kirtiwar it’s too basic of a concept, and really long winded for a simple message
it's a fantastic speaking, very informative man! TBO, I'm not a person easily moved by others, but man, you really provide some fun ideas to me and thank you with all my heart
Dan Gilbert just shot to a high position on my list of respected dudes.
My mind gets blown every time I watch one of these. This one in particular blew me away...perspective concentrated. Thanks to this channel for exposing those of us who question objectively, to objective viewpoints that we must confront.
I had to sit up and listening to Dan Gilbert's Bernoulli's obsession. He literally shredded marketers' strategies by a simple psychological and behavioral perspective! However, the big question tonight is: Are we that far in that we can barely see his point?
Superb, wonderful talk. One of the best speakers I've heard, and he has something interesting & useful to talk about no less!
Dan gave me a gift...His book Stumbling on Happiness! I loved it.
a great speaker, a great talk.
This was so very interesting. So many things to think about on a personal and professional level as a result of watching this.
The answer to the 1st question optimizes my thoughts, excellent speaker
Thank you very much for the knowledge
The QA part at the end ROCKS! it starts at 24:00.
This is one of the best ted talks of all time. The value is here the odds of gain are more than the height of Mount Everest
Brilliant and eye-opening speech. It's incredible that we have all these bias. We should study more our bias and "how we work" in order to improve how we make decisions and our impact in the society.
Brilliant lecture! Thank you.
Amazing research work on us behaviour. Great speach and presentation
However, on the $50 vs $60 question... you didn’t mention the factor of control. If you offered me money now or money later, I would take the money now and run. The $10 sacrifice, even accounting for interest, is insignificant to me because a lot can happen in a month, and you might not actually pay up. So the choice of payment now ensures that I actually get something. Something to think about. Thanks!
P. B Amygdala it’s a controlled question. If you throw other factors in there, then obviously it will skew
It doesn't really matter the reason. If the decision to wait a month were rational, then it wouldn't matter if that month were now or in a year from now. If the certainty of getting the money a month earlier is worth the cost, then it's worth that cost regardless of whether that month is now or later.
Well, in that case people should choose to get $50 in 12 months instead of $60 in 13 months because everything you said still holds true here as well.
Your final point "ensures that I actually get something" was my reason for choosing to go to the play after losing the ticket. If I already spent $20 on the play then I'm gonna see the play even if it's gonna cost me $40 I want to get something for the money I've already spent. If I lost one of 2 $20s then I might see the play or I might not. I haven't spent any money on it so then I've got to decide if it's worth my last $20.
the advice in the end was really inspiring
Took a while to comprehend but when he began using realistic examples, wow.
Did you stick to being “woke”? I even asked out loud, “ depends how hungry I am” for the $25 burger lol. Stick with it, much to learn.
Mike Simmons & xxNikkeh I am about to watch and listen again. I will be more focused this time and take notes!
This talk is very inspiring, I don't know why this get so much less views compared to other Ted talks
Quite revealing. Thank you!
Learned a lot from this mans speeches and book. Thank you
What an incredible speaker. Aside from the obvious, a thank you very much sir!
Incredible idiot more like it
Enjoyed the session, thank you!
Excellent. I thought I knew a bit on this topic but the speaker helped me think of things in a different and interesting way.
Excellent. I saw this a year ago and thought I understood it, but this was a great reminder.
surprisingly interesting and very very informative. the man's got it!
It feels like this entire TED talk was a warning of what social media and the Internet would do: Provide mankind with constant sources of instant gratification; completely available anytime and anywhere.
Dan is a pleasure to listen to and intelligent.
This is why i love TED Talks
one of the best TED talks!
Excellent talk, and it rings true. Another area in which we've not evolved as fast as the environment we've created.
The Q & A session is more powerful than the actual talk! "If you had to solve one of these problem Chris which would you solve, terrorism or poverty?" Both are wonderfully convincing. I was told last year to buy "Stumbling on Happiness". After reviewing this talk, I don't have much of a choice do I?
Once again, fabulous speaker, fascinating subject! On the lottery ticket purchase, I figure the fantasy of winning is worth $1 in itself. Also, at that point, my odds of winning are basically the same as the person's who will eventually win. But because I know the odds of winning are astronomical, it's the reason I will only purchase 1 ticket; you have to play to win. (It works for me!)
This guy is such a great speaker!..i wish i could do that...
This is amazing. Teaches to behave on stock market, way better than all those stupid books and tutorials and courses.
Excellent talk from Dan Gilbert and excellent intervention from "Jay Walker" at 30m02s (if I get that right). :)
Great topic and nice relevant examples... There is a rational thinking in humans but most of the times we tend to ignore and move ahead.
Gosh this guy stimulates my brain like nothing else wow.
Mike from breaking bad taught me a lot. This was very interesting
I didn't even notice the resemblance until you said it. I can't unsee it XD
He is what would happen if Walt and Mike fused into one ultimate meth dealer
Mike and Walt are antithetical. I admired the Mike character, but despised the Walt one.
5:55 Walter White's backyard? 🤔🤔🤔
@@rickybindahoose6193 8 h88 hh8uivi ib8 hi h8v i8 ihbh8 u8bh8vi9hivhvh 88hhvuhibi uiv viiui8vh8h 8hi i vi 8bbh vhu89 hibivhii hhivui h 8vivi ihhh8 8 iui8 vihh8 v8ii h bhh 98h ih hu ihbh8 vj8 hi88huihii uhvii8viuh7hi uhivbiuviv i8hu i bih 9viuuhhi iuv8hi hivihh8hiiiv99hviiv8h8ivbh988h8hb 87iv8h 8uh8888vh8 8hhvii hiii hh8 i i u h ib ih89u 88bbuh h 8ibbivh8bi vgiu8iih i8 8h8bvih ibu h8 88h88i h8h 8hi8h 89h8 8ihh8 vh iviu ihbi h8 h8 v vj vihihiihiuu v ih8ih ih h 8uhهةة٨ت ٨ةختهت٨ت ه هةختوهوو٨ت خووخ٨ هتن خ٨خ٨ ٨ةوهخت نخت هتو ٨٨وه ٨ ت٨ةهت تخة خهه ٨تتتة٨ ه٨٨ختته هةت٨ةهةة٨وخه٨تةت ن خهن تة٩ ةوةخ ةه٨و هخ ة تة ة هخ هه iuvi j hiihhiiuv8 v88v8 uh8ih iivj 8h v vh ibhhhhh u h hivhiuv8 vh8 b8vhii gii h u vi 8hh88h8hv ihiv 8i8v 8v8h 8v7hv8 8 8h 8hvh8ivu hv8v 8ub8 h88 iih iivbhhb8ihh ibuvivhhi8bu v88 bbi88 hv8h
sooo good! so true and actually by the same point really sad!!
Good and bad are subjective, and each individual has his/her own definition of what good or bad is, I think.
I for one don't believe in good or bad but wholesome and unwholesome actions resulting in the like Karma
You have more chance of dying on your way to the lottery than actually winning it.
People will gladly pay a dollar for hope.
You have an even better chance of drying while going elsewhere.
MaeMae II then if you survive the triip and buy yhe ticket than you've beat the odds and wining the lotto becomes more feasable when you just won the survival lotto. Its a mute point and never ending circle
feckin good odds if you are suicidal
This motivated me to go out and buy a lottery ticket
Wow! Jaw-Dropping Lecture! :) I wish all lectures on every university were so interesting and well performed as this one.
True
Brilliant presentation.
Awesome speech!Nothing more to say.(And BMW ad in the end really surprised me :D )
it's about happiness because he's talking about, in a sense, the fabled equation for happiness. from what I understand, that's what behavioral economists study... how humans invest time, money, energy in search of happiness... what drives them to do so... and what we can do to manipulate that knowledge to our advantage. great talk.
Gave another perspective. Thanks.
Great guest, great audience!
i just started watching it and it'll have to be real impressive to beat the one from john hodgman but so far i'm impressed.
WOW, Someone who shares my point of view of the world! I couldn't have explained rational utilitarianism and how far we are from it better myself.
Thank you, Professor Dan Gilbert for showing how even people who aren't distressed choose poorly. Most people miscalculate gain and pain. It's no wonder distressed divorcing people make bad decisions.
On a relationship level, it works magic. I once asked myself, why I have only three exes and already tired. The reason is: decision making. I underestimated the odds of my past by overestimating the value of my present pleasures.
One of those ones where you get to the end and just say wow
This man is so capable of opening people’s eyes
Great talk! I was entertained the entire time and I feel a wee bit more confident in my ability to make more logical decisions, even though most of this information will evaporate from my mind by morning. Regardless, it was a great listen. Thanks Dan!
I hope you still remeber the important points of this talk! :D
He got me almost every time!
Compliments Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow nicely.
30:20 the voice of the man reminds me of Aaron from the Prince of Egypt
OMG, Aubrey de Grey out of nowhere at 31:55. Haha! Awesome!
Resonates so much with the covid situation now!
Thank you.thank you.
Fantastic! Thanks!
That was friggin beautiful, I love it.
I love your mom
Thank you!
18:30 it all depends on the needs in your life, if i dont really need $50 to survive for the month then i will wait for the $60 but if im in dire need of money for this month for instance to pay a bill and to avoid late fees then i will take the $50 dollars now and not wait a month for the $60
I definitely prefer being a long term thinker and beginning with the end in mind
It's still a good example. His point is that the thing you're more able to recall is the thing you'll predict as more likely to happen. For the vast majority of people, it's easier to recall words based on the first letter. Even though your first thought was different from most people's, you confirmed the theory that your prediction of probability correlates with how quickly the idea comes to mind.
@30:00 Who is this Jay Walker guy? His take was spot on.
Best Ted talk in a while.
lol. I'm sure he spent plenty of time on his speech, and there are plenty of really good examples and points. I just think this example highlights a serious flaw in certain ways of thinking about economics. It was fun talking with you, I definitely agree with your points about the power of marketing and sales -- it is a powerful tool, especially against those who don't understand it.
I've seen another vid with this guy. Makes interesting points.
Its seems to me that Bad Decisions come largely from Bad Information. Bad Input=Bad Output
jjsiegal
jjsiegal, however good input doesn't guarantee good output, perhaps people often jump the gun and assume they have all relevant information when in fact they do not.
"We under-estimated the odds of our future pains, and over-estimated the value of our present pleasures...!"
JUST LIES
Great talk! Really facinating topic that makes you think :)
He's amaaazing
Great talk. Felt that whatever he said is true
Love the talk. It really doesn't help that there are far more entities that WANT the masses kept stupid.
great stuff! I want to attend TED Palm Springs, hope it'll provide great content like this!
No more half measures. Thanks Mike.
Regarding the lottery. The payout is so huge compared to the price of entry that it makes the odds of winning irrelevant because no matter how small a chance you have of winning, you do have a chance and your ticket is just as likely to win as anyone else's. I've heard people say of something that could probabilistically happen at any given time "We won't see this in our lifetime or for millions/billions/trillions of years because the odds against it are astronomical". They overlook that it is just as likely to happen now as it is to happen at any arbitrary point in the future.
Right. Winning the jackpot is as likely the first time you play as it is after playing for 30 years.
@30:58... well done!
good questions from the interviewer
This was very inciteful and logical. The first 10 minutes already had a lot of interesting stuff, and it doesn't even seem to have anything to do with the title.
This is still more relevant than any other Ted talk
damn good video, thanks for posting
......depending on the circumstances I would choose the delayed gratification of the instant $50.00 provided the money was 1.) deposited in my bank account and 2.) the only stipulation was that it would not accrue interest and I could not touch it until 13 months were up. 3.) that assumes my current situation, I got money in the bank and my health is great. etc......... Still I liked the talk and the Q&A at the end was great..!
@alSation81 if you see his talk from the year before, it will be alot more obvious how this relates to happiness
Truly great.