Can India Replace China in the Global Supply Chain?
Businesses considering the great decoupling from China face the dilemma of finding a new manufacturing hub, with India emerging as a popular choice due to its large workforce, affordable labour, and investor-friendly leadership. However, a closer examination reveals complexities in India's economy, raising questions about its readiness to replace China as the world's factory and its ability to navigate challenges still hampering India's growth. Can India replace China in the global supply chain, we ask our panel of experts.
On the panel this week:
- Velina Tchakarova (FACE)
- Ashoka Mody (Princeton)
- Arjun Ramani (The Economist)
- Michael Kugelman (Wilson Center)
Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 02:39
PART 2 - 10:31
PART 3 - 38:44
PART 4 - 1:00:55
Outro - 1:17:40
Also check out:
- How Strong is the Chinese Economy - • How Strong is the Chin...
- Wargaming: India vs Pakistan - • Wargaming: India vs Pa...
- Water Wars - • Water Wars - The Green...
Also check out our sister channel - @context.matters
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You can fix Infrastructure, you can fix the business friendliness but only God can make India's Judiciary move beyond a snail's pace. Judiciary is the biggest risk in India. They drive investors away.
@@ottohightower7649you are spouting nonsense and don't have a clue about what you're talking about.
@@libshastra All I intended to say is Judiciary just a limb. You have to target the Heart of the problems.
@@ottohightower7649You may be directionally right but you miss the target by a mile. You may have elaborated your point but it still is nonsense. You literally have no clue what you're talking about.
Yo you here too ? Damn
Judiciary is also the biggest protector of democracy in India. Chandigarh shows......
the main issue is India is not part of RCEP. you export from China, there is less paperwork and less tarriff in other asian country. India is just not integrated into the Asian economies by choice.
India wants to be white, to be Anglo.
"Replace"? Too high a target. A transforming era awaits India. As elsewhere, the fabric of society is shredded. Winners & losers.
INDIA IS THE COUNTRY OF THE FUTURE WHERE THE FUTURE NEVER DID ARRIVE
You should see the growth over the past 10 years rather than sitting in your couch and commenting invalid things
Sober analysis of US de-risk policy failure.
Great work as always and thanks for the reading list!
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 02:57 🌍 *India: Global advocate, non-colonial power.* 07:17 🇮🇳 *Modi's term: Maturity, reforms, infrastructure.* 09:28 📈 *India's rise: Geopolitical, economic power.* 11:36 🏭 *India vs. China: Manufacturing challenges.* 16:42 💱 *Overvalued exchange rate: Hampers exports.* 19:42 🚜 *Indian workforce: Challenges in transitioning.* 22:40 🖥️ *Digital infrastructure: Hype vs. reality.* 26:18 📚 *India's education challenges.* 31:16 🔄 *Political challenges in reforms.* 45:05 🏭 *Foxconn in India: Manufacturing disparities.* 48:04 🚂 *Indian rail challenges.* 49:15 🌉 *Infrastructure issues: Rail vs. road.* 54:49 🏛️ *State governments' power.* 01:18:43 🌐 *Reality Check: India's Potential* Made with HARPA AI
Replace? Delusional…
MANUFACURING REQUIRES ADVANCED TECHNICAL SKILL SET, AN EDUCATED WORK FORCE, INFRASTRUCTURE, LOGISTICS, POLITICAL STABLITY, SOURCING RAW MATERIALS, WORK ETHICS, CULUTURAL NORMAS, CORRRUPTION INDEX, HEALTH CARE, AND MUCH MORE COMPLEX ISSEUS. THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN WISH FUL THINKING.
No
very sad
nobody is saying India will be a superpower by 2030. India will be the 3rd largest economy by 2030 and a developed country by today's standards by 2047. Honestly i could have done better analysis than the guests you got and can give you pointers to some analysts that are not as woefully despondent as mody or out of touch like kugelman
India claims "India Superpower 2030", just like they claimed "India Superpower 2020". India will probably stall out at 4th/5th simply due to their culture; if it looks like they'll be #3, the USA will bring "freedom & democracy" to keep them in their place. The USA failed to stop China, so they'll work much harder to ensure India stays weak.
why india always live in dream
@@user-qt3uw5mk7x why Chinese always starting pandemic?
Why would we want it to?
provides lots of jobs and raises income?
Simple answer no and never will be
Only China was able to be China the "Asian Tiger" for a very short time.
It's the people. Culturally caste system and ungovernable mass of people, too many poor and uneducated people, the class that does have money, won't spend money on the poor due to caste. and infrastructure doesn't benefit the elites. So they don't fix anything. India been the next China for along time. Meaning the West wants some easier targets to deal with. China unlike India didn't play along with their colonizers. You'll find them where everywhere went the British Empire went. As soldiers/workers etc.. always carrying out orders. Tiny group of people took over a huge area. Due to collaboration of the people. Just wishful thinking of West and Indians. Indians are a super power in the comments section of the internets for sure.
100%, it is the people that make a country great or not
Dog meat supremacy is real
@@damianmoodley594Japanese supremacy over china is real
Ya like the west had the best of the cultural righteousness?? No one has forgotten slavery in 1960s America The question of culture just doesnt makes any sense with this regard. Its just americans trying to save their asses that now the world isnt as unipolar as it was when they were growing up.
Indians talk the talk, but Chinese walk the walk. But it's deeper, because Indians are opportunists in the moment, which is why they bandwagon whenever a small advantage appears. Chinese are strategists executing against multi-year plans, willing to invest for big long-term payoffs.
global regions BORDERLESS FREEDOM land/water/sky for democratic NEW ERA ONE GLOBAL BODY of mortal mankind inhabitants..GREAT DIVINE universal resources ENDOWMENT for PEACE, PROTECTION and PROSPERITY. Very pleasing and lovely given by GOD for anyone else needs for life. NOT FOR DEADLY SIN FOR GLUTONY AND GREED.
😯 experts are biased ‼️
😱 ✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️🐒🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌😁
hahha DDD an het ngon nen chay sang chu cong an tiep ma thoi DDD
Nice propaganda 👍
Lots of misguided thinking here. The reality is as follows; After WWII, the USA rebuilt Japan, to keep it out of the Russian sphere of influence. Japan became the shop floor of the Western world. But by the ‘80’s, Japan became too expensive (and powerful), so businesses moved to S. Korea. As Korea became too expensive, business moves to Taiwan, then HK, then finally to China. Now that China is too expensive, businesses are moving to Vietnam, India, Mexico, Bangladesh and ultimately into Africa. It’s actually a very natural process. It will take time for the relocation, but it doesn’t help that Xi is threatening to turn the Taiwan Straights into a war zone that no Costco freighter would venture into. Let’s be clear… Japan is STILL the #3 largest economy. China will still be powerful, but its demographic timebomb, astronomically high debts and political risks are strong points against China’s ascendancy. It’s not that the West is against China, it’s that Xi is against China. He is scaring the West away. Big difference! Business always finds the cheapest place to manufacture and stays until it isn’t. It took China from 2002 until now to ascend, so it will also take Mexico, India, and others time to build up the manufacturing infrastructure to become powerhouses - just as it did in China. It’s happening now as we sit here.
Some sanity against this long winded anti India multipart podcast. None of them compared the state of India vs China, an obvious 15 years of gap that's only getting plugged, a totally different form of government where we can't do modern day slavery without recourse. Indians of 2020s aren't as desperate as Chinese of 1990s - a simple fact. Have better quality of life than Chinese of 1990-2010s who worked like slaves in the factories in China funded by the US money. As US moves away China will face so many problems but well now they have money so can handle most of them.
@@raviramanathan5565 China’s wealth is really in the urban, CCP environment. The rest of the rural population is still dirt poor. That wealth is also trapped by the provincial debt burden of infrastructure overbuilding. It will take 4 decades for that to work its way through the system. India has lots of warts, to be sure, however, Apple setting up there is just an example of the beginning of a sea-change for India. It’s time for India to drop its chaste system and move into the modern world. It might take a century, but as with all countries, it either modernizes or it falls apart. History will tell
@@sandymilne224 This wealth inequality is what India will avoid (& had avoided in the past successfullly prior to the British colonization) Caste system is the fundamental structure that differentiates Indian culture from the others and it is more ingrained. What must & will go is any discrimination owing to it. This will happen and will not not take a century but with the right will less than a decade. India will be a beacon for millennia to come unlike any recent nation state constructs. It's the only living of the ancient civilizations and will continue to thrive because continuous reformation is built in - it's not static but rather dynamic and hence self correcting. Caste as Discrimination in India is a hyped phenomena than truism and what Brits used to divide and rule us when the social equilibrium had already been dislodged by the lengthy foreign rules and invasions prior to the colonization. It was a non discriminative social construct respecting the humongous diversities in the then societies but that later morphed under influences. It's not the reason for poor state of affairs in the country directly as India used to very rich till 1700s. There is no room for any discrimination in modern India under the constitution and any that's still found will be eradicated. India's growth will be more equitable.
@@raviramanathan5565 That's a very wishfully positive view of the caste system that many social elite are propounding on social media. However, even today, caste permeates all strata of Indian society. As far as caste being constitutionally discarded, that hardly makes any difference for the day to day experience of Indians living in India. Caste makes it impossible for people to relate to each other on an equal footing. It fractures the fabric of society. Caste groups often work against each other rather than as one team. With the caste system so deeply ingrained in the indian mindspace, there needs to be a radical change in Indian societal structure to help us overcome the challenges to our society and our country. I would say that's the single most important change that we can make to our society to effect positive change. However, I dont see much hope of that happening at least in my lifetime.
Not a chance that India replaces today's China, or even China of 20, 30 years ago. India failed to invest in people and infrastructure like Mao did for China, thus India doesn't meet the preconditions for advanced industrial work. India is many decades behind China, but the millstone of 1.4 Billion poorly-educated and poverty-stricken Indians makes progress far more difficult.
…but assured. As it did with China, the West will set up plants and indeed, move Chinese operations into India (and other locations) no matter how bad local infrastructure really is. Business fixes those things. And it wasn’t Mao, who developed China, it was Deng.
All true, but time will tell how India develops. There are a massive number of Indian youth in countries like the USA, Canada and Australia studying offshore, getting critical skill sets.
@@sandymilne224 LOL, the West may set up plants, but they won't make a single penny because India will file lawsuits and fine them to ensure that all money stays in country, hence the reason India is known as "the graveyard of foreign investment". They certainly won't be building the massive infrastructure of roads, power plants, power distribution, housing, railways and so forth. That's massive immediate capital cost over long term with low operating revenue compared to resource extraction or neo-feudal labor - the only things India can actually provide. Deng opened China to global investment, but Mao laid all of the groundwork necessary. Mao expanded healthcare via barefoot doctors, and expanded education, increased literacy. Mao invested into infrastructure and heavy industry, which is why China grew ~6% annually under Mao. Without Mao, Deng would be where India is today.
@@sandymilne224 Those non-resident Indians will Never Return India. They'll do well for themselves, like any immigrant desperate to avoid returning to the misery that is India. It's classic "brain drain", siphoning India's best and brightest for American benefit. China used to be like that, before China developed and created huge, lucrative opportunities domestically. Now, they're going back home, bringing their skills and knowledge with them.
Yes, Mao did it by outright murdering some 7-8 million people by causing famine deaths. India luckily didn't have any such disasters post the British engineered famines (last one being the Bengal famine). Indian talent vs China talent is a digression since the upward growth of China since 1990s. The gap now is due to this 10-15 years of difference, will be plugged soon. Infra investments is happening big time in India and so we will also have a good base in the next 5 years. India will never replace and will never aspire to replace China. No modern slavery possible here being a democracy. We will chart our own path ahead.
Joke