Vote 2024: Sky News General Election projection
Professor Michael Thrasher, Sky News election analyst says 'it has been a dreadful set of results for the Conservatives' but points out that Labour has not made all the gains.
Sky News projects that Labour is on course to be the largest party, but would fall short of an overall majority in the next General Election, based on the local election results so far.
#localelections #skynews #vote2024
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Professor Thrasher will be truly ashamed of this when he sobers up. 1- A H of C prediction with no input from Scotland, Wales and NI (over 100 seats). 2-Not knowing the difference between general and local elections -no Ratepayers, Residents, hardly any Independents in a general. 3-The Greens will get, at max, 3 seats (Brighton, Norwich and Bristol), Reform will almost certainly win none. nowhere remotely like the 60-odd predicted here. If I were the Sky producer of this segment, I'd ask Thrasher for my money back. Can't say I'm surprised-after all, ultimately Murdoch is paying Thrasher for appearing here.
I also will the reform party will not get any seat, they are disgusting.
The model they used here is utterly worthless. I prefer to trust electoralcalculus. They have the chances of a Labour majority at 98%.
Prof Thrasher knows what he's talking about.
Labour will have a 100 seat majority, MINIMUM
@@user-sf7kl9uh7k I disagree. If they do win a majority, I'm 99% sure it'll be less than 100.
This is the dumbest prediction ive ever seen.
Yep. This is literally click bait to try and sell the ridiculous "bad result for Labour narrative" that Sunak was spinning. It's pathetic actually for a mainstream news channel to peddle this agenda.
It's not. The Conservatives changed the boundary lines months ago, which means Labour would need an even bigger swing than they've ever had. Our voting system is beyond corrupt. The killer is, the Tories will most likely close the gap in the run in, there's a big chance they still win despite most people hating their guts.
@@TheDandonian It is because they haven't taken into account that Scotland is going to have many more Labour MPS.
It hurts knowing these idiots are being paid well for talking bollocks
@@TheDandonianI'm not mad on them, but I'll still vote conservatives. Lesser of two evils
This is not accurate. Don’t believe it.
20% voter turnout, this doesn't mean a thing
I would love to know what the prof has been smoking. Labour are going to get a thumping majority.
How do make a prediction like this when large parts of the UK didn't have any local elections on Thursday?
No hope who ever ends up in government
Having that attitude will only allow things to get worse. Being fatalistic is just an excuse not to be politically engaged, which leads to worst outcomes for all of us.
@@Nico-ss9lrstop pretending like the uk is a democracy. We’ve had the same 2 parties for 100 years. This outcome is not in any way probable in a real democratic country
Labour's GE vote share will certainly be much higher than 35% and the Tories will slip further down. Plus, this is a purely English voting day....
The Scottish and Welsh constituencies might help Labour true. But I wouldn't bet on a Labour majority, these (and last year's) results are very similar to those of 1992 and 1993!
Let's come back after the GE and laugh and scoff at Michael (a Tory)'s biased blunders. I'm not even a Labour supporter but anyone suggesting they're not even going to get a majority has their head buried in the sand.
What Sky News calls a 'projection', psephologists would call 'guesswork'.
Professor Michael Thrasher is probably the top psephologist in the country.
Reading anything into PNS is terrible analysis, also because this calculates all constituencies in the UK based on only results in England (with low turnout).
Look at the numbers compared to 1993! The 1992 local election results were scarely similar to last year's as well. PNS is far from perfect but it is a very complex and established model that is constantly being refined.
@@quintuscrinis8032 kinnock was welsh , he was never gonna win enough seats in england
Deluded Sunak says the voters will stick with the Tories at the election.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
This prediction is not accurate
Stammer still short thats a really bad result for him and I'm happy.
@@mosheridan7016 Yeah, under this deeply flawed prediction which doesn't include Scotland
@@plutomissing6084 Let's hope he does not either way.
@@plutomissing6084compare these results to 1993 (or last year's to 1992). They are unnervingly similar.
Its basically a choice between the same parties that fundamentally pursue similar polices & are not significantly all that different anymore. We no-longer vote for the best party , we vote for the best of a bad bunch. . . . . it still leaves us with 'bad' 🙄
Claptrap like most things on sky
As a statistician I have never seen such a load of garbage in all my life
Look at this year's results vs 1993. Same as last year's vs 1992. Honestly this might be a bit optimistic for Labour.
This is so stupid it hurts
This is so stupid projection
Look at this year's results then look at 1993. Or last year's vs 1992. The modelling has been carefully refined and based on a lot of good modeling and statistical analysis.
So, PNS is calculating Scottish based on results in England only? Also, there is a substantial difference between local elections and general elections, particularly independents where Labour lost most of their vote and voter turnout is significantly lower.
Labour, Tories Two cheeks of the same backside,no chance of help for families
Imagine inferring national election based on local and last election 😂😂😂😂
After the hangover....no change...😂😂
Tories - Your done !!!!!!!
No vote for any party
The markets are suggesting that the economy will improve. Assume nothing.
Complete waste of time, not taking into account that labour will go from 1 seat to potentially 20-25 seats in Scotland.
The judgment of the people is the greatest judgment
Einstein would have difficulty working out this prediction.
So many have worked to bring down the tories but Sunak has done the job for them. The shambles created by the pygmy is helping to the extent that by autumn labour labour will have a resounding majority if the mighty atom can hold on that long. Fingers crossed.
Yep
Even as a casual observer I can’t help but laugh at this ridiculous projection. 400 seats for Labour is now a BARE MINIMUM. Who actually thinks independents/ small parties are gonna get 20+% & LibDem at 16%??? That 35% Labour is minimum between 45-48%!! What an embarrassing projection! Tories getting 100 seats will be a good day for them at next election day; getting 242 would be the dream even coke-d up Rishi won’t be imagining!
These local election results are eerily similar to 1993. Last year's were equally eerily reminiscent of 1992's local elections. Stop dreaming and deluding yourself that it's over, that's how they win.
It's almost time to swap scrips
I'm not underestimating the evident Tory disaster but do percentages of the vote really mean anything except a trend in a country with FPTP and not PR? Just asking.
I vote Putin the only person who would have the balls to deal with this cesspit of a country
Yeah me too
Or trump lol xx
I highly doubt it's going to be a hung Parliament this time. Especially how bad the SNP is doing in Scotland. I fully expect that once the general election does come, the SNP vote will collapse and labour will be picking up seats in Scotland.
Hunk *
Hardly a surprise
This analyses is all based on shaky data and because of that its pointless and means absolutely nothing.
A LabLib coalition then, anything other than the Tories.
Vote Reform UK 🇬🇧
Sky News tried its best to make its Tory bosses look like a bit of better. Both BBC and the Guardian have said that Lab is very likely to get a majority in the Parliament.
me and my husband also vote to Labour❤
1:04 How bout Labour + Lib Dems coalition? 294 +38 =332 > 326. 6 seats majority still looks risky 😅 🍿
👎
Exactly what I thought and said before we are going to have another Neil Kinnock out of Starmer.
He was terrible
This prediction is a load of nonsense. A far better prediction can be found at Electoral Calculus, which aggregates multiple polls from across the country: This currently predicts a 98% chance of a Labour majority. The Conservatives are totally stuffed.
Polls are polls, it's actual votes thay count. Look at last year's results against 1992. This year's against 1993. They are eerily similar and we know what happened then. Complacency like this is how they manage to win!!
Sir Jimmy Starmer!
Max headroom.
I’d laugh my arse off if Lib Dems formed a coalition with the “other” parties, and both Labour and Tories were left out. Let’s have some new ideas
guy clearly knows nothing about statistics
Very poor methodology.
Labour???
Starmers donald ducked
Laughable
It’s labour’s to lose
The pound went up today. That means the markets are predicting Labour are unlikely to win next election which btw is not a bad thing.
FTSE 100 at record levels due to excellent Tory handling of the economy.
We must stop the Labourkenesit party too.
lol
What the Uk media isn’t reporting - kzhead.info/sun/oLqModyKhZ96oKM/bejne.htmlfeature=shared
I still wont vote labour
good afternoon, Tory bot!!!
Hello there
😂
And here all the right wingers online had me believe they were the majority 😂
And yet labour think its in the bag!! 😂
someone is too thick to know the flaws with PNS 🤡
We don't need conservatives still in government and just as bad we dont want labour back in government as they make things just as bad if not worst. We need change. We need to reform this country to gain it's back bone back.
Unfortunately the masses need to experience the accelerated destruction of 5 years under labour before they’re forced into accepting reality and finally wake up to the betrayal, incompetence & corruption of the uniparty....God only knows how irreparable the damage will be by then. Bumpy rude ahead....
I don't mind the conservatives too much. I'll probably just vote for them
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Sky News Tory spin machine.
Israel k
What the Uk media isn’t reporting - kzhead.info/sun/oLqModyKhZ96oKM/bejne.htmlfeature=shared