Stephen Kotkin & Orville Schell: What Drives Putin and Xi (Part Two) | The Foreign Affairs Interview
Foreign Affairs invites you to listen to its podcast, the Foreign Affairs Interview. This episode with Stephen Kotkin and Orville Schell was originally published on July 13, 2023.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin loom over geopolitics in a way that few leaders have in decades. Not even Mao and Stalin drove global events the way Xi and Putin do today. Who they are, how they view the world, and what they want are some of the most important and pressing questions in foreign policy and international affairs.
Stephen Kotkin and Orville Schell are two of the best scholars to explore these issues. Kotkin is the author of seminal scholarship on Russia, the Soviet Union, and global history, including an acclaimed three-volume biography of Stalin. He is a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Schell is the Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society. He is the author of 15 books, ten of them about China. He is also a former professor and dean at the University of California, Berkeley, Graduate School of Journalism.
In part two of our conversation, which we taped on June 16, we discussed how the leaders of China and Russia see the West and how that worldview is reshaping geopolitics.
SOURCES FOR THIS EPISODE
“Prigozhin’s Rebellion, Putin’s Fate, and Russia’s Future”: A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrain...
“Russia’s Perpetual Geopolitics” by Stephen Kotkin
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-...
“Life of the Party” by Orville Schell
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-...
“China’s Cover-Up” by Orville Schell
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-...
Two Stephen Kotkin videos in one day (The other one is in the Hoover institute channel). This is such a treat!
I know!!! Amazing
How brilliant is Kotkin?! No-one else brings alive complex geopolitics like he does.
These two should start a podcast together.
These guys should be running the State Department
Why can't we have a world where Stephen Kotkin is President
This answer is easy. I often saw journalists asking politicians stupid questions, and then I realised that the journalists are the smart ones. They aren't dumb enough to get into politics in the first place. In politics, you are dammed if you do and you are dammed if you don't. It's a no win situation.
Kotkin 2024 Curious tho who his VP pick would be
Swap our state department with him and we would be way better off, and save some money...👍
I think we want Kotkin for Sec State, not President. We need him in meetings with Sergei Lavrov and Qin Gang, not talking to the press and rubber stamping legislation along party lines.
Lol. I agree! 😂😂😂🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Wow! So educational! We are so lucky to have these two great minds to listen to.
I know you felt the need to break it up because it was so long but I listened to all of it in one stretch anyway. It was great.
Two great minds. The best, the latest, most complete and honest, and most insightful discussion on the topic.
More Kotkin, more Schell. This is a great discussion; very informative and enriching. Thanks!
I loved these two part conversations. I had actually posted a comment on another podcast channel that I would like to hear a conversation exactly like this one between these two gentlemen. Then these just popped up! Im grateful that my desire, and that of thousands of others, had already been anticipated and responded to. In the same vein, I would be interested to hear Steve and Orville comment on some of Peter Zeihan's apocalyptic predictions of China's demographic and supply chain challenges going forward. Of course if China invaded Taiwan, all bets would be off!
Great questions and conversation. Thank you.
Thanks for Uploading.
What an intelligent, substantive and helpful discussion! Thank you very much!
😂😂😂😂 27:01 Absolutely love listening to Kotkin. He is a real gem . 😎👍🏻🇦🇺
🤣🤣🤣
Congratulations Dan on a great podcast my new favourite ❤
Thought provoking. Kotkin is always worth listening to. Now I have to watch Schnell: another valuable insight. But Kotkin has a perspective that challenges anyone and everyone. A couple of hours of engagement with people of this level of insight is worth than years of university study for a PPE degree.
Want to see him in a debate with George Gollaway, Noam Chomsky, Jeffrey Sachs
I'd really encourage you to read their books. Can get the knowledge of a PPE degree for free at the library.
@@minhloi4536 Noam Chomsky, seriously? I'm sorry but he's senile nad can't distinguish fact from fiction anymore.
Two Kotkin drops in one day, and I feel spoiled.
One of the best and clearest analyses of Russia and China on the world stage
Brilliant. Many thanks.
Wonderful conversation and great sense-making.
Thank you very much folks. Very educational information.
Kotkin & Schell are Rock stars..Amazing convo!
I like how this whole discussion is framed. We, Americans are the ruling civilisation, China was our low-cost center, they refused to fulfill this role, we are happy to take them back as our low-cost center. We are generous. Just don't compete with us.
If "competing" means invading sovereign neighbors, violating international law, and threatening WW3 then yeah it's not good. This is the lesson of the 20th century.
Ohhh, nice to find this part 2 in my feed.
Another excellent presentation.
Terrific. Thank you
Rule # 1 - Stephen Kotkin is right Rule # 2 - Don't forget Rule # 1
Stephen is just “Brilliant”! Loved these 2 parts!😊
Great discussion.
Great conversation
I’d like to see more of Orvelle Schell ! I’ve listened to Stephen Kotkin every chance I’ve had; But, Schell is new to me and China is still an Enigma.
Holy molly ! 2 Kotkin interview drops in one day!! Oh boy oboy oh boy...
More Kotkin pls
Great stuff, thanks
“Stuck in a DO Loop” Steve is absolutely brilliant. I wonder how many politicians know what a DO loop is?
That was very insightful and I had a blast. Thank you very much I enjoyed listening and appreaciate their perspectives.
incredible analysis of the world as it is - not the opinionated one of the main press or politicians. Thank you for posting
Thank you sir for this decision
Stephen ❤… ..my FAVE! !
Ecce Kotkin -- bravo maestro
Where is the link to part 1??? 👀
Brilliant
Really enjoyed the discussion. Interesting point made how logic vs national leaders ego drive national policy. A leaders own ego may play even bigger role in authoritarian societies.
Great discussion from two giant luminaries of the academic world. I just wish we could be in a world where there is more in-depth discussion of issues, rather than tribal fights on policy.
12:00 is a really great point. "Why is this happening?" China was dealt the best hand ever; America wanted China to become rich (because we thought it would make them democratic); foreign-direct investment poured in; the American-led global order nearly collapsed under its own weight in 2008; America lost all international credibility with the election of Donald Trump. All China had to do was be moderately friendly for another 10-20 years, and they could have realigned global politics in their favor. Instead, they immediately pounced on their neighbors, cracked down at home, went on a navy building spree, and just became openly hostile to every non-subordinated country. They squandered their best chance to actually achieve their stated goal.
Well Kotkin already nailed it. Chinese society's exposure and ongoing interaction with the west poses an EXISTENTIAL threat to the CCP's rule and they need to reframe the west as an enemy to justify their rule. What legitimacy did they have for being in power? They are not elected into it. They gained power initially with the promises of land for the peasant and a socialist economic system, both none existent. Now that they adopted market economy, what was the point of them overthrowing the KMT originally? Even the ROC reformed into a full democracy and have been far more successful in bringing prosperity and security to its people. Large part of the chinese populace are not dumb. They can see the prosperity and freedom that people in other country enjoy. The large amount of students who studies oversea represents opportunities of bringing back the ideals that are lethal to CCP control. Had they kept the status quo for two more generations, the CCP would be completely irrelevant as younger chinese's drift towards the west would be unstoppable.
Ya that's an interesting point. It could be that Xi senses the appetite for regime change so he's going all or nothing, perhaps like putin, whom xi must be questioning if the failure outcome would be the same for him.
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.
Now the thug wanna kill china cause China is prosperous 😅
openly hostile to every non-subordinated country - You must be living in a cave. Did you know that those non-subordinated countries are rushing to join the BRI, BRICS, SCO, RCEP, which are China led?
Best two to listen to on the problems that were having!
great great people! Thanks for this!
Sweet first the Hoover had Kotkins now F>A, life is good, thanks fer the work! Both oh ya...
Lived in China missing my Students! I could probably get in Not sure I could get Out!
Excellent analysis of the current situation. The only problem is that the Chinese and the Russians are not in the market for it.
Russian and Chinese have longer history and they know only one superpower means trouble.
This chat is so interesting.. I’m a commoner that thinks beyond my pay grade, and worry that our leaders and thinkers are just playing ostrich politics.. this talk is so refreshing.. I do wish my “commoner ass” was sitting in at the afterparty….
@ 47:32 For France to give up its imperial tendencies, there have been 6 coalition wars and Franco-Prussian war. What would it take for Russia to set aside its imperial tendencies?
Simultaneous revolutionary uprisings in a majority of the former Soviet Eurasian states would do it. Seeing what the Russian Army has failed to accomplish in Ukraine, demonstrates that if enough former Soviet republics rebelled at the same time, Putin and the Russians would be powerless to stop the disintegration.
I am with them, a very good explanation of the two main strange moves; Why, for heaven's sake, did Putin make such a miscalculation (unless he stupidly took TFG/45's assurance he'd weakened the West/NATO alliance enough) Then how did the Chinese, crammed with smart people, join the lunatic? I was troubled when Xi started down the autocratic road, but this was very strange. Always there is the hope that such clever, and thoughtful people of goodwill we have just heard, DO exist among our, and even their, leaders.
Why did Xi stood-up? Simple, America elected an imbecile in Don-the-Con Trump. The Trump administration's policies against China are guided by racism, tribalism, and self-enrichment (Ivanka's patents), stupidity ... No world leader will allow their country to be dictated by a thief, only the entire GOP will bow to a loser controlled by Putin.
Be careful of your choice of friends.
Am I the only one who skips through Schell's parts to just listen to Kotkin?
I really appreciate Kotkins insights and analyses of the situation regarding Russia, Ukraine, and China.
The only problem is ,he doesn't think Ukraine is an American proxy war.
Yass!
This was like kotkin at 8pm on a Saturday.
I wish we could get some of these guys or gals in or political offices. Very insightful and thoughtful. Thanks!
The smartest thinkers don't always make the best politicians and leaders, example, Jimmy Carter, brilliant mind, lousy President.
Why are European countries not upholding Western values? Why have they forgotten the lessons of WW2?
Can we swap the state department for these two guys?
Psychology vs hard logic.Good point.
Stephen, the Chinese provided the North Koreans with all their nuclear and military hardware from day one, as you say they don’t want a reunification! NK has been basically a Chinese vassal state!
19:32
why do they say "the ukraine" isn't that russian propaganda not recognizing it as a country?
Older people seem to incorrectly call it "The Ukraine", but in the Ukrainian Constitution it names itself as "Ukraine". Ukraine actually means borderland, so older people got used to calling it The Borderland even though the name of the country since 1996 has been just "Ukraine". I actually had to make this point to a professor who seemed still stuck in the 80's when she told me that "Ukraine" wasn't correct.
Need these guys to have a sit down chat with Tucker Carlson and Steven Crowder.
I find Dr. Kotkin speaks in ways others can hear. This is particularly important when the “others” are hostile or afraid. Dr. Schell speaks with words that too often sound like he is better than the “other.” I’d be happy to see Dr. Kotkin negotiate with China, though not so much Dr. Schell.
The same issue, but in a far more exaggerated manner, has been playing out in Iran of the last four decades. CCP is not a Chinese state and the Islamic Republic is definitely not an Iranian state. Putin started off as a Russian state, at least in being able to provide, for a brief period, what was required of a Russian state! What we now have are three non states engaged in what amounts to a “reverse adaptation “ (the ecology to the animal) by degrading the ecology and rearranging the western based ecosystem!
This a superb discussion, thanks.
Why does the Indonesian minister of maritime and investment affairs say that investment from China comes with no strings (“they never, ever, dictate”) while investment from the US comes with “a list of onerous conditions”? Those quoted statements make it seem that at least some think China is less coercive than the US. Seems like an image problem that the US needs to address, no?
The difference is China doesn't interfere in the political domain whereas America interferes strongly in the political domain.
As the globe integrates, nations hold their unique cultural and historical distinctiveness. They do not dissolve. They are not soluble. The story is very different in the political realm and for the future of their political leaders. They go from a product of their histories to a future commodity in the open world wide political market! Therein lies the existential and metaphysical conflict of interest between these leaders and their nations’ trajectories. One is not soluble; the other, is!
Case and effect…..is real
Prof. Kotkin, is the west an open society? Really, with all the neo-liberal partisanship going on in the USA and Europe, against alternative views to government policies, national and foreign, and increasing media and corporate censorship against people holding alternative views to the state policy?
Nobody is censoring me. I can say and put my thoughts out in public whenever I want against my government, nobody is going to come arrest me for it, unlike in Russia or the PRC. They're so afraid of their people they have to watch them continuously. And lock up anyone they don't like and send them to re-education camps.
United First Island Chain Alliance together, push back CCP agression... Then, we can talk about terms.
Well, I hold almost an opposite view from Schell. Based on the looooong history of China, it’s not looking good. Please bear in mind that Taiwan and Hong Kong aren’t typical “China” part. Taiwan has paid quite a price to get to today’s position and they had President Li who is not really a typical Chinese. Xi is a complete different story. He reminds me some sort of Ming dynasty emperors. And due to personality, I don’t think Xi would ever divide any issues and reach an agreement etc with the West. He is not Mao nor Dang. All or nothing. Compromise is seemed to be weakness. He can’t afford and will not accept to lose face.
If China keeps doubling down, and unfortunately it is looking that way. Their people will face a severe famine when those shipping lanes are blockaded which as Kotkin states, would be very easy by a western alliance. Their geography and dependence on imports for food is crippling in any major conflict. If Xi was smart he wouldn't be so bent on world conquest, he should learn from his pal putin what that would look like. Given paranoia is part and parcel with these despots, there is something all or nothing about the behavior of these dictatorships that would imply they are on the verge of collapse / regime change.
You're right that China is enormously dependent on open sea lanes of transportation (courtesy of the US Navy) for essential imports of raw materials, like fossil fuels and agricultural products. That same US Navy also has the power to close off seaborne imports to China if she misbehaves too aggressively such as invading or attacking Taiwan. In times past, when international crises occurred, the President asked, "Where are the carriers?" Now he/she would ask, "Where are our submarines?"! We seldom hear it discussed in regard to a potential invasion of Taiwan, but US attack submarines are the world's best and most lethal. Any Chinese amphibious force headed for Taiwan would quickly find itself on the bottom of the Taiwan Straits. I pray that Zhi's maritime advisors have apprised him of that fact.
America needs to restore everything it truly needs for a case of national emergency. It's a bill, but it's past due. While being intertwined has probably kept the peace, we can't trust Xi to not be aggressive over Taiwan. Edit: thé.US niilitaey shouldn't be dependant on China for rare earth material, but I heard that development was underway in Australia.
Minsk agreement duplicity has consequences. Might makes right. Russia now has enough might to be right.
Compulsive conversation sadly it only touches on the issues of today and what happens going forward. Both Putin and XI are old school Communists, Putin claimed the worst disaster of the C20th was the downfall of the Soviet Union leading to the annexation of the Crimea followed by the current war with Ukraine and Xi has committed the CCP to reverse the reforms of Deng Xiaoping moving China back to the ideologies of Mao. But what is I think the real question should be, will the current collapse of both their economies and the loss of trade with the west change the elite and powerful into understanding friendly cooperation with the west is in their own interests or not after the experience of being part of the global trade markets? The damage both have done economically to their respective countries both now and into the future is incomprehensible but will that matter will their Governments survive or will the people find their voice and demand change or will the people who benefitted most want to return and engage again like they did before? or is it all to late
military capability is the color and the culture of the cold war and not intentions. what can they do and not what they want to do. counter their military capability, either by "The Art of War" or "On War" counter. It is war by any means....
👍
This podcast is a neoconservative dreamscape.
This interview raises THE interesting point - these two guys study history and geopolitics, one is even a China “expert” - and neither one understands or grasps “China’s view” or why. And they admit it! I can tell you the China side is just as confused. That gap is where the danger and mistakes lurk.
Stephen talks about China “losing Japan”, as an example of fundamentally not understanding the Chinese perspective.
Orville is better. He keeps alluding to confusion or what he doesn’t know. Stephen really would like China’s viewpoint to fit neatly into the well known rules of “great power politics”.
So good. You notice there is rarely much discussion by either of these men about how US domestic politics plays a role here. Bill Gates doesn't talk about this either...
The contest between USA and China are economical as well as ideology in same order and effect. Those who think its only ideology should also read why suddenly anti-Japanese sentiments got prevalent in USA in 1980-90s , as Japan was closing-in in economy. Also in simple words, The world has been and will be run by the rule of most powerful nation's ideology.
Totally agree 💯 It's always the boss that dictate if history tell us anything.
You can hardly compare a little bit of grumbling about Japan in 80s to the current situation with China. And whatever that "sentiment" might have been, those Hondas and Toyotas just kept coming in. The Japanese got rich off of Trading with the west. It wasn't until China took on this new aggressive posture, that any kind of consensus developed about confronting China economically. It doesn't make much sense to sell them tech if they are going to use it to make war on Taiwan.
What’s missing, it seems to me, from the Russian perspective, the West having a 30 sum military alliance on their border, with nukes etc., it doesn’t allow for Putin and the leadership much confidence in coming to a mutual solution or compromise. Last month’s issue of Harper’s magazine, has quite a detailed analysis, essay, of the existential threat facing Russia. A 30 sum military alliance on their border! And we’re expecting them not to ‘flinch’! What about a European alliance of all concerned countries , including Russia, that work on existential threats like Global Warming or the absolute situation of some African countries, with war, famine, climate catastrophes?
Stephen is interesting but he can’t stop talking let Orval speak
What drives Putin is the psychological necessity of not facing up to Russia's challenge: it's going to lose everything east of the Urals, and in roughly the same time-frame it took to lose the Warsaw Pact countries, a generation. Xi: two problems, making a graceful exit from Marxism and keeping a supply of energy. In the long run, all of these are the same single problem, and both of them know it. More Fulbrights for Tuvans! Now! And maybe rebuild that Fuller Dymaxion Dome in Kabul...
Haha if you could honestly poll the Russian population if they prefer or identify with Europe and the west vs China, North korea, UAE and Iran...
Instead of China building out their nuclear capability why not just buy Russia's weapons? Win win for the two of them. 😉🙂
Q: How does Xi get the wedge back in between Europe and the US? A: Donald J. Trump, president, 2024-2028.
Xi see being victim as the path to being great. He recently ask young Chinese to “eat bitterness” 吃苦 willingly, because suffering makes them stronger and being great in future. That’s Xi’s own experience, so he can link his success as a dictator to his suffering during Cultural Revolution. I know many Chinese, young and old, think that way too. Because in dictator’s mind, he equals the whole country, so China now has to endure suffering and struggle and being victim all the time to be great again.
Yep gotta survive first before you can fight another day.
When suffering becomes the norm, or even a source of power, you are entering a different world. It’s the world of the humiliated and insulted, it’s an empowering, timeless and spiritual experience. China (and Russia) are in this black hole for way too long. Save the children.
China and XI's model is 1984
hhh cold war talking points. choose an ending for you in rhetorics and call that free choise
You just don’t like the fact that they won’t be subordinate and that the very worst sin that they have a policy of fairer redistribution of wealth. With the later being the obvious future failure point of American capitalism, you can see that in rapid progress today. The US neoliberal open society could never function in such a diverse and populous landmass.
The US itself is a diverse and populous landmass, so I don't see why it couldn't work in Russia or China. Would you say that the European allies are subordinate? France and Germany especially seem like they are anything but subordinate to the US.
She probably denounced his own father... that may be the syndrome...
Was Stephen Kotkin channeling King George III talking about the American Revolution? The American colonies are playing a losing game. They feel shut out and marginalized. Decoupled, the colonies will have no access to the trading routes of the Empire. They have a single coast with a barren wasteland inhabited by savages to the West. Their coastline can be easily blockaded by the British navy. Are the colonies prepared to be completely cut off from the Empire, FOREVER? The colonies are culturally English. It will be a difficult proposition to sell. They can do anti-Monarchism in the colonies, it is “mother’s milk”, it is the way the rebels maintain their grip and hold on society. It is “what’s on the shelf”. Eventually the colonies will become a vassal to France and some colonials sense that. Do they really want to be French? And what will the French get by supporting the losing rebels? To lose more colonies like they did during the Seven Years War? WHY ARE THEY DOING THIS? Look at the good thing going they had in the British Empire. We all “share and care” and we will all get rich. The colonies “had their cake and were eating it to”. Look at what we gave them, victory over the French in the Seven Years War, but they have done nothing to reciprocate/pay for it. On the one hand the colonies are the principal beneficiaries but see the Empire as their biggest threat. It looks “crazy and idiotic”. What the British did to the United States does not compare to the brutality of the American Civil War, what they did to themselves. We will have to wait until the archives open to see the true savagery. Imagine how much better off they would have been as British colonies. The rebellion was a military victory for the colonies but a strategic defeat for them. How will they ever recover? It is interesting to watch this miscalculation. No countries thrive independent from the Empire! (Like India, Vietnam, Singapore, etc.) We will get the colonies back, not by military action but “we will GET THEM” by peaceful evolution. (Perfidious Albion) Washington, Jefferson & Franklin are retrograde leaders, they shall pass, but the Monarchy is forever, so reintegration is inevitable. All of this colonial victim-culture / resentment was created by Marx & Lenin!!! Today’s world is an extension of the British Empire. YES!!! King George III died never understanding the American Revolution. So, next up for the United States will be another version of the Coercive Acts & Battle of Yorktown. (sigh)
After Russia and China have collapsed demographically and economically then maybe .....a possibility for a reformed relationship. But USA may also need a serious shake up.
look up the definition of "rejuvenate". the silk road was around hundreds of years before the start of the roman empire and lasted hundreds after its demise. china's rejuvenation in this group of speakers context is a joke.
The war in Ucrania helped mend the wedge between the USA and Europe, but so it did the absence of Trump. If he had won the elections, I doubt the outcome would have been the same.
In spite of his consistent (and necessary) calling out of the so-called American patriot, Kotkin is such an anti-American patriot when it comes to trembling at Putin's preposterous brinksmanship.
Great conversation