Stephen Kotkin | REDS Seminar: European Security Past, Present, Future
Speaker: Stephen Kotkin, FSI senior fellow affiliated with APARC and CDDRL, Stanford
Moderator: Anna Grzymala-Busse, director of The Europe Center, Stanford
Traditionally, definitions of security emphasized military defenses and alliances against potential adversaries. Over the last few decades, of course, everything from financial flows and technology transfer, water and energy supplies, trade relationships, to information security and social media disinformation have demanded increasing attention, alongside or instead of hard power. Nowhere have notions of security been more multidimensional, and less militaristic, than in Europe.
Has Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine forced an enduring correction back to traditional notions? Or are some changes predating the war destined to persist? Can geopolitics return if it never went away? What is the future of the fiscal-military state? Is the modern state fit for purpose any more? What is technology actually doing to governance, if anything? How might security depend on new or reinvented institutions? Is China an even bigger game-changer than Russia for European security? Is there, could there be, a pivot to Asia, or is that a nonsense? So many questions -- how do we begin to sift them, and order them, to establish a workable framework with which to build notions of security that could last?
Stephen Kotkin is an FSI senior fellow affiliated with APARC and CDDRL. He is also the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and founding director of the Hoover History Lab.
REDS: RETHINKING EUROPEAN DEVELOPMENT AND SECURITY
The REDS Seminar Series aims to deepen the research agenda on the new challenges facing Europe, especially on its eastern flank, and to build intellectual and institutional bridges across Stanford University, fostering interdisciplinary approaches to current global challenges.
REDS is organized by The Europe Center and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and co-sponsored by the Hoover Institution. This event is co-sponsored by the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies.
Stephen Kotkin is the very best speaker I have heard on USSR, Russia, Eastern Europe etc. There is no one better than Stephen....I'd love to see you here in New Zealand Stephen.
Totally agree… add Australia to that tour too! Ha ha
I would add Timothy Snyder to that list too. But Kotkin is a giant without a doubt and a font of knowledge and insight.
@@alandworsky8926 Intellectual giants...both!
@@alandworsky8926 Thanks for that I'll look him and his work up.
Kotkin is a national treasure. Love it if he came to oz.
Stephen Kotkin's speaking is like good writing - clean, direct and succinct. Listening to him is a pleasure not only historically but esthetically too.
an elite an uncommon talent for oration for sure.
Mr. Kotkin brilliant as always
As always, Kotkin's analyses are solid and insightful. A plea to the organizers: please, get your mic&sound act together.
The audio needs a lot of work.
I simply cannot get enough Kotkin in my life
Stephen Kotkin is just brilliant. Brilliant.
So weird to see the Americans having bright minds such as Kotkin but many still listening to the likes of Chomsky.
He'd make a great secretary of state or at the very least national security advisor. He has a great global perspective most realistic . Non imperialistic but still western minded and American centric.. He understands the long slope of history , the dynamisms and transientness of state and regional geo- politics with more than a passing interest in economic and military affairs. But this comes from an independent and academic overview rather than a captive insular one like Putins and Xis . Praetoriian guard systems have little in the way of porosity.
@Pawwel Mussial au contraire mon freres. US was attacked 911 . By jihadists ergo Afghanistan. Iran armed up and so did Iraq with russian and French weapons largely with oil prophets from your gas purchases. Russia invaded ukraine and now is denying world food grain supply though they're an independent un member . America is still a force for good and will back ukraine . While Russia tries to bully its neighbors dominate world GRAIN supply and dictate opec oil prices . If they only knew nitrogen was used for fertilizer and less for explosives they wouldn't have blown up Beirut and help Iran build a super costly atomic bomb. Putin acts more and more like Stalin everyday who by the way made a pact with Hitler stop with this self flagellating hate America talk based on a scientific socialism bureaucratically entrenched centralized power that doesn't allow the little countries to thrive. America may invade some aggressors homeland but we do not colonize or stay long term. Is mussial your real name or just an avatar like barskys was? You've been treed and you know it. Just come clean.
@Pawwel Mussial yet those terrorists who you Russians released , zawahiri Dagestan pre 911 took Afghanistan as their base of operations pre and post 911 under your and taliban protection. Now they've been eliminated . As for the wheat argument America would not substitute for sustainable local growth economies which you disrupt with revolutions. 4 % of the American distribution is a lot by SCALE !!! In fact greater than almost any other nation including yours . The local economies throughout the world would be better off if your two faced perpetuation of the Marxist lie weren't continued . Allowing some organic local autonomy to lead the way but unlike Mugabe s wrecking of the southern African food production cycle . You hate kotkin because he tells the truth with your own records about how you created a famine killed millions of people through starvation and forced removal of people . You think you own the Ukrainians but they do not think so which is why you INVADED THEM . NOT AFTER AN ATTACK ON YOUR SOIL. BIG BAD BEAR YOUR BORDERS ENCOMPASS 12 TIME ZONES . YOU NEED MORE LAND ? DONT BE PREPOSTEROUS . WILSONS 14 POINTS PROMOTED SELF DETERMINATION OF NATIONS YOU NOT SO MUCH.
I am afraid many brilliant academics aren´t self-serving, corrupt and incompetent enough to become politicians. But I agree its a damned shame.
@Pawwel Mussial Hey Pawel. I live in Western Europe, and I´d rather suffer under the "American yoke" you present, rather than any other alternative available. USA is the lesser of many, much worse, evils. But currently I am very grateful for USA´s global involvement, even with its less than stellar performance you describe.
@Pawwel Mussial putins explanation is a failure just like his military as the world absorbs his refugees . Because he's clinging to an incompetent aparatchik scientific socialism idea . It won't matter who operates that form of protofacist bureaucracy . Lenin was russian and gave Stalin and the other socialists power no matter the nationality centralized command and control governments in one party states do not work. National Socialism or Communistic Socialism ignore the localized imperatives and human factors that need checks and balances separation of powers and individual rights . And Russia has never had any of the above . It can't manage its 17 million Sq kilometers.never mind as socialist autocracy or not. Putins rationale on ukraine was absurd and flew in the face of UN membership Declarations. It is ridiculous IRREDENTISM altered by independence and time. The coup d'main failed now he should go home and bind up the wounds of his nation whose blood and the wounds of ukraine he's needlessly shed.
Fantastic! Stephen is always insightful. Thank you.
Dr. Kotkin is a "planetary treasure", as a central european living the history here for 43 years, he is correct in everything, what he says. Do not listen to Mearsheimers, Stones and other shenenigans.
Mearsheimer is head and shoulders above this guy.
As ever, Mr Kotkin is so interesting and insightful. I deeply appreciate the opportunity to hear him speak. I am so grateful that I will let you fly me from here in Australia to your campus to fix your audio system at absolutely no charge. You just cover airfare and accommodation and replacement parts. No charge for my time. It is worth it, so that we can properly hear Mr Kotkin in the next talk.
How could anyone eat in front of prophet kotkin?
?
Agreed
Eating? Whew!
Gotta be a deliberate slight. Or just uncouth character.
To you it’s a prophesy, but to the folks in the room, it’s just another weekly lunchtime seminar with free food. Kotkin is used to these, since he’s been a prof forever, so there is no offense either given or taken. Everybody besides Kotkin in that room is eating because it’s lunchtime. The faculty sitting next to Kotkin are quite busy and won’t have any other time in their day to eat. The broke grad students off camera are just glad to have free food, since Palo Alto is quite expensive, even on relatively generous Stanford graduate fellowships/TAships.
Very insightful discussion. Professor Kotkin is a great communicator.
Stephen Kotkin is a treasure. I found it annoying and a bit disrespectful of the two women eating their lunches while acknowledging a key point with a nod of a head and a mouth full of food.
Stephen Kotkin is a national and global gem, I am so grateful to be able to listen to him on any topic, anywhere, at any time.
Always excellent, Professor Kotkin makes the wacky world a bit more comprehensible. Thanks for this.
Professor Kotkin is without a shred of a doubt, the best living historian of our day.
I would recommend Timothy Snyder too, in my view both are incredible historians. I would even argue that Snyder has more depth with his insight and language skills. He speaks Russian, German, Ukrainian and more and reads in 10 languages which is a massive advantage for a historian. I am not sure about Kotkins language skills, but i am sure he cannot compete with Snyder on that level. Anyway, Kotkin is far up on my list these days.
Thanks! I’ve never heard of him before. He seems great. Thanks again! I’ll definitely look him up right now.
Great points. Everything is interconnected, yet distinct. Hard balancing act. ⭐️Just an housekeeping suggestion: Is it ever okay to eat during someone's lecture? No. It's not. You can wait. It can wait. It's uncouth, and always dumbly distracting. Smarten up.
Quality audio is not that expensive.
Steven starts at 5:20
Thanks!!!
Always great information from Kotkin. Fire the audio guy.
Perhaps Stanford should divert maybe 1% of its enormous financial commitment to DEI - and buy a couple of microphones that actually work ? Environmentally and equitably sourced microphones, of course
Must buy from black female microphener .
SOMEONE PLEASE FIX THE AUDIO GOING FORWARD. :)
I always listen closely to these discussions. More need to pay attention. Nothing is perfect. He has the right analysis: what will bring peace and prosperity. We have to be realists, as there is no perfection. Careful analysis of original documents through time is the best way to look at things. How else can you make a proper decision?
Mr. Kotkin's insights are so stimulating and I want to say thank you sir!
I can’t believe that the host ladies sat there and ate food while he was speaking
Mr. Kotkin is a very knowledgeable and thoughtful man. Wise from his years of research. I appreciate the REDS organization hosting him. It was an informative presentation. As per several other comments, I do recommend that you elevate the quality of the sound in particular for future videos. The video is fine with the one exception of people eating while Mr. Kotkin was speaking. Perhaps the presentation was meant to be informal but somehow watching Mr. Kotkin discuss some very serious global topics while a couple of people are eating their lunch just seemed a little weird. Perhaps, it would have been better to keep the eating lunch part out of the video and use the speaker desk. Or maybe it's just me!
Kotkin is my new favorite, great teacher
Kotkin is like a character in The Sopranos - the Joe Pesci of academia.
150K words on the third volume already?! Holy- When's it coming out?
In Mother Russia, Kotkin introduces you!
Someone remembers Yakov Smirnov.
Brilliant indeed by Kotkin . Which can not be said about the microphone culture of the other seminnar participants.i
What, is this a film about lunch being eaten? Tasteless [the lunch probably too].
Excellent as always
Dr Kotkin, you are a poet of a man 🙏🏽
Stephen Kotkin is as incisively brilliant and observationally sharp as ever. A modern gem amongst contemporary academic dross.
A great interview. (rather low production values but great content. Stephen Kotkin is good at pointing out what we don't know about the current ongoing war. He cautions that Russia has deep resources. Had I had the chance to ask a question I'd have asked him why, he thinks, Russia is needing to go to Iran for those quite primitive drones which currently appear to be Russia's most effective weapon?
Brilliant as expected. I worry that Professor Kotkin underestimates the danger of Western self-flagellation metastisizing. It has already escaped its origin in academia.
He mentioned his enthusiasm for the greens in Germany....the ultimate self flagellators who are at the crux for blame in this entire fiasco.
Yea i dont think he understands how much society has degraded at the base level throughout western culture. Sure let's not do it at the bussines or governmental level, but that sounds too autocratic for my tastes. A multicultural society only works when their interrests broadly align, the divide between left and right has reached has reached monumental proportions so they don't align, a splintering of ideologies is forming. These are problems we should face, and align society again with common purpose even when we don't always agree. We can even forget about Russia. Keep the social cohesion for the love of god.
@@MRneushaar he talked about this before- the battle ground between leftist anti imperialism taking forms that limits western power and conservative fake populism that diminishes our international influence. He said we’re ‘managing’ the situation without proposing any good ways to solve it, other than decent politicians rising to the occasion. That’s a buttered summary of views he previously expressed but basically The toxic divide can largely be attributed to leadership failure across many countries, especially post 9:11. HyperPartisanship & polarization is a byproduct of mediocre politicians in many ways.
One of the best thinkers...
Why do i keep searching for the newest stephen kotkin content.. i share the sentiment of others on here... but its weird i dont listen to other professors and i had no interest in understanding modern russian history, or what the 'east' is ect ect until i heard him on fridman and the war broke out. I appreciate that he is smart enough to not have a podcast - he keeps his lectures tight and keeps to his points, but for christmas i wanna hear him ramble for 10 3 hour episodes to see what other crazy shit he has learned over the years and his views on geopolitics and modern politics... is it asking too much steve? He prob made too much money doing lectures and doesnt need another 500k or million dollars from a podcasting career.
I am with you .He could be more popular than Jordan Peterson.
I agree!
Me too. I was just thinking how beneficial a thematic kotkin internet archive would be to counteract the more self-destructive schools of thought & political views that seem to dominate most western societies these days. Princeton needs to work out some open source content from his courses - his voice is priceless in this era.
@X vonPocalypse ….sucks Borderline psychotic
Im always devouring anything Kurrent & Kotkin
The worst RED is China. Who is Steven Kotkin on China? Still Kotkin? I would take it ❤
Have y'all complaining about the eating ever been to small audience type expert seminars? Generally they provide refreshments during and after. Practically every one ive ever been to, as a geologist, has been like this, its not disrespectful at all.
So can I bring my antique thunder box and take a dump, while breastfeeding wailing twins? All casual and natural like.
Always appreciate Dr Kotkin- he is great
What are the direct and indirect causes of the Ukraine war. This question, needs to be adressed prior to speaking about how the war is conducted, what arms are used, how the information is or should be manipulated, or even who is winning or losing this war, if such thing exists.
Fossil gas is neither clean nor cheap,Prof Kotkin is mistaken on that point. The cheapest energy source almost everywhere on this planet, including the USA, is solar PV, combined with battery storage
Excellent
I am a fan of Dr. Kotkin's talks. However, I will venture to offer some advice. Please ask people who are going to be in the video frame, to finish their lunch! It is disrespectful to the viewer and, most importantly, to the speaker. Would the professor permit it in his class?
This nascent channel is about to learn about the Kotkin kick.
Generous & Brilliant 🇺🇦🌎🪷⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
That guy is amazing!
Pan in so we don't see people eating! Distracting!
As an American geologist and natural resources specialist, I humbly suggest that as the Russian dictatorship declines, the Chinese one may decide to seize its once held territories on far eastern Russia.
The glitches were very unfortunate
Stephen makes a great point at 26:00 . If Russia removes Putin and replaces him with a less antagonistic leader/regime, there will be nothing for NATO to do. The main reason countries want to join NATO is because they are worried about Russian aggression. Putin is his own problem, if he actually wants NATO to lose power over the long term then the most effective way to do that would be for him to resign.
I suspect the move if that comes to pass would be to reorient the mission and reinvent the organization to focus on keeping china in check, probably in a more cyber warfare sense, with smaller subordinate missions focused on the ever unstable Balkans, imported middle eastern islamic terrorism. Ideally it would be a wholesale reinvention of the organization as a defensive alliance based on countering threats to western society/government/freely democratic sovereignty of countries (like Taiwan). But yeah, if russia becomes not only less hostile, but becomes downright friendly and western-looking, thats a big problem for NATOs reason to exist. But that's a far better problem to have than dealing with Russia as an enemy.
But as a New Zealander, i.e. far away from the situation but with heaps of historical links to Europe and Asia; the problem with Russia is that after Putin they would find another Stalin and after him a another Putin! Tragic but it is True!
@@robertmiller2173 I agree - I feel like this senselessly brutal episode will solidify the commitment to NATO for many, many years to come. No one ever imagined another land war of this scale was possible in Europe. Now, even once this is years in the past, I’d bet the memory keeps NATO together in perpetuity until perhaps a world military under the UN - if and when that ever happens. The “no NATO” crowds in western societies are loud, but definitely the minority.
Stevie K rocks. Did time in the gulag cause of a remark by a French guy. Hero.
If it was about me, I could outwait a very long time for the Greens replacing the (green) social-democratic modell in Germany. - Sorry for that, Stephen master of suprising insights Kotkin.
I cant believe those ladies were just eating sitting next to Stephen while he was delivering his speech 😂😂
Volume, can’t hear
It just blows my mind that the moderators - high ranking representatives of Stanford - are casually eating their lunch during a lecture. Especially considering the lecture is being delivered by one of the world's eminent intellectuals. Also the random nodding while looking at their dish, acting like the are truly following what's being said... So out of touch and disrespectful both to the speaker and the audience.
Agreed. You would think they would have the courtesy to eat at any other time than when Kotkin is presenting. One even drops a damn tomato on her lap ffs
I am thankful that we get to see and listen to these discussions at all - becuase they do not need to put these online. thast nto their main focus, So keep complaining, and then you wil wonder why no one posts these sorts discussion. SMH
@@veronicamaine3813 going by your logic, they could've done far worse things because "it's not their main focus". I am thankful for these kind of discussions, and no, I'm not worried about it, because this is the first time I witnessed someone do what these moderators did in the hundreds of lectures I saw online. It's human to make mistakes, it's human to point them out.
Agree all the laudatory comments. But, the two munching away on camera really distracting and even disrespectful.
The woman almost entirely swathed in scarves, needs to turn up her microphone to break thru the woollen filter. Why does no-one notice?
She's too busy stuffing her face...
At 10:33 woman 1 drops a sun-dried tomato in her lap and pretends to be prompted to write something down on the pad. Eat your damn salad after he talks!
Poor sound and eating lunch when this man is talking is nothing short of discraceful , distractful and lacked professionalism
Those ladies are eating... ? Don't forget desert. wow
Isn't it also the same as Stalin's Korean battleplan, or similar to it?
Did Russian media provide the audio for this program? Did Iran provide the falafels to these scholars to eat in case they got bored?
I came here to listen to Stephen, and got to watch two ^%$^$%# eating in boardroom. WTH is going on here? Something with human rights???
@X vonPocalypse God forbid people eat...
Eating while someone speaks is distracting. Short of food in the Bay Area?
WTF do you mean "lack of data?'" Military forces at war don't publish details on military art operatjons- how absurd of an assumption that they SHOULD be doing so...just to satisfy your curiosity?!?!
Excellent talk! But, please,please,please, Take your audio production seriously. Get some fresh batteries and train everyone on staff how to test the system before you bring a million dollar analyst to your channel and ruin it with bad internet balanced audio. Certainly there is someone there that can check audio levels and battery conditions. Please do better next time. We care.
Why would you plan to retreat from a key operational area when you planned to win the entire war in 3 days? Why would you then remove the operational commander, (Lapin), if what happened was planned and the only cost sustained is the alleged infobattle loss ))
Sound is awful, eating salad next to prof Kotkin talking is awful, introduction is crap but Stephen Kotkin is, as always, very interesting and worth listening to.
Poor audio quality
Eating?
The eating is hilarious
It looks like other people are eating too!?! WTF!?! This isn't a working lunch....
All information of russian units is in open source
Do Americans have to eat all the time?
Reds is a baseball team in the US. ['Women will be better for democracy'? We'll see.]
. . . are those two women eating while Kotkin is speaking? Interesting.
Couple of seagulls snacking at work. Can you imagine a man doing this in the same context? Good luck now you're in charge, ladies!
Are they really?
At 26:20 S. K. says a Ukrainian victory will create problems for NATO , no problem, deal with the nato problems later .but win first .
The Ukrainians attack in Kharkiv region..THEN Attacked in Kherson region...they never gave up their objective of freeing the Kherson Region. They saw an opportunity to free Kharkiv Region, took it, and then focused on Kherson...DUR!!!
Stephen Kotkin is always a pleasure to listen to but I'm disgusted by the hosts choosing to eat as Stephen Kotkin speaks. Ill mannered, disrespectful and distracting.
I have a bit of a problem with using words like "power" in a kind of a universal way: German power, Turkish power, but mostly Polish power as if they were all of the same dimension. What is it, the Polish power? A rapidly aging population with high emigration rate among the young and skilled, almost no producing industries, let alone military industrial complex, low wages, low average education levels, a tiny GDP way smaller than the US defence budget, almost no military, which never saw action. What kind of power is it?
Not sure about the education level, you might wanna check that out. Not to mention Turkey's GDP is 100 billions dollars more. It's not that much.
This show is not ok. Eating.... While in a presentation and a poor sound. But, heck, Mr Kotkin is speaking, so you should listen.
These two women have „late pregnancy social science eating disorder“ (L-SSPED). It’s important for pregnant women over 40 to eat all the time in order to make „the world a better place“ which women automatically do.
I don't like it when historians get asked to become prophets. They struggle to describe the past that be a clue as to their predictive powers.
I don't think we need to worry about NATO loosing relevance after Russia's defeat. If we are very lucky and if the West is very consistent in its support to Ukraine, Russia might be defeated on the battlefield. However, Moscow will remain, angry, bitter, resentful, unassailable at its core, impotent on many aspects, but with an immense power of nuisance for its immediate neighbors. The real problem for NATO is not a defeated Russia, it is the US losing interest, or becoming an autocratic theocracy.
A brilliant man is speaking and these two women just go right on eating . Omg . Lmao .
The real first shortcut is russia win. And then?
No, it's not gas. It's geothermal. Do try to keep up with the technical facts.
Those ladies start eating lunch ten minutes in. A little disrespectful?
Completely disrespectful. Academics shall be intelligent and having good manners and those two fem.. making a stupid fool of themselves. Which super university is that ?
They are showing who is in charge of the cultural space.
It's actually a century long tradition in some US universities serving food in the seminars. The only way to get people into. But admittedly, a little weird for non-US eyes..
Maybe Ukraine should wait for trump to end the war? I love to listen to Kotkin but I'm not sure that he likes democracy
How rude and ignorant those women were, sat there stuffing their faces. Probably checking their phones for latest discounts on dresses. Nietzsche was right about them.
The West's previous actions/conduct. Russian escalation = Western limited sanctions, sporadic diplomatic objections. The West's present-day actions/conduct. Russian escalation = Western sweeping sanctions, united diplomatic objections, increased Western resolve, additional Western military support.
@X vonPocalypse While maintaining national goals is well and good; most nations share the goal of not being invaded. When like minded nations band together and form an alliance like NATO they make a commitment to this shared ambition. Yes there are obvious implications within this situation. The most important and strategically beneficial being: You are now far more powerful and robust, this added might now forces aggressive nations that might have previously taken a chance on military actions, to reassess this assumption. The direct security benefit is fairly obvious. The bigger you are, the less likely trouble comes your way. Additionally when and if trouble does come your way, you are very well equipped to deal with said trouble.
I love Professor Kotkin, but I'm compelled to take issue with his closing statement about the harmlessness of "flagellation of the West" in academia. He advocates an end to it from corporations and government, but where does he think that comes from? Most of it emanates from individuals who were indoctrinated on college campuses and peripherally in K through twelve classrooms all over the country!
NATO needs to develop competence or Poland will fall next.........
people are eating , how rude