We’re Looking at Shrinking Communities, We’re Looking at Societal Collapse: Stephen J Shaw
2024 ж. 8 Мам.
11 882 Рет қаралды
NTD’s Lee Hall sits down with data expert and documentary maker Stephen J Shaw to discuss population collapse, why birth rates are plummeting and what we can do about it.
Thank you, KZhead algorithm. I love every opportunity to see Stephen J. Shaw preach, again and again, with indubitable intelligence, even brilliance - and make no difference whatsoever.
When the birds can’t afford a nest they won’t lay their eggs simple is that 😂😂😂
Women in Afghanistan are having 6-7 kids each, making 20x less money, living in dirt huts. It's not an economic issue.
@@Morphine242 Yes, because it is the only way to secure your future in those countries. Having a large family is priority for them. However in developed countries there are other ways to secure your future and live easier without children.
That's right! That's me right there! I knew this at age 10 when I spied an encyclopedia entry about the population explosion expected around the year 2000 (from the 1970s perspective), I looked at how young girls older than me were walking from home to store with a baby stroller rather than DRIVING to the store and back, and especially when I saw how Dad was destroyed by divorce - he got custody of me, but was left destitute except for an old International Harvester Scout 80, a travel trailer, and $30 borrowed money in 1974 when we showed up in south Texas, to start all over again. F no. F all y'all if you expect me to subject a child to even a hint of a possibility of repeating what my parents (AND I) went through. I cut the family line of misery right then and there. I was not going to subject a child to the things I suffered. And I was NOT going to make promises to a child that I wouldn't be able to keep anyway. I never married, never had children. I wouldn't have been able to ANYWAY because I am profoundly deaf all my life and grew up under my non-Christian father, who gave me the ability to look at things with a different eye and eventually find my own path. My parents passed from old age 25 years ago. It was a hard life of working retail and office work, and not being able to rise in any company. I have seen a LOT of "passovers," meaning seeing people getting hired 2-3 years behind me and yet promoted to a job that I wanted within a year or two and becoming MY supervisor. I ended up fleeing the US almost 6 years ago to save myself financially after 5 years of odd jobs and 3 emergency eye surgeries to keep from going blind in one eye. After I fled, I paid off all debt within 9 months and started rebuilding my life, however fragile it is. It's better than working retail somewhere and being emailed, "Don't come in. Our stores are closed nationwide. We will inform you more as soon as we get information" in early 2020. What would I have done without a job? As a part-timer, would I have qualified for unemployment? How much? Would it have been enough, particularly if I got sick with the particularly nasty bioweapon that was killing Americans by the thousands every single month? America has had the highest death toll of any country to date of this thing. How would I have paid for the bills imposed by the Medical Mob? And now look at today, where AI is being used to take away the jobs I used to do. There's no discussion by the US gov't regarding mass job retraining for the next 20 years, nor is there any discussion about UBI for AI-affected people. Read through the latest budget released by our gov't stolen by demons voted into office. There's nothing there to help us, but there's certainly plenty of money for Ukraine and everyone else BUT us. See, every time I had sex, I was always protected, and when we forgot about protection beforehand, I would always have this foreboding feeling that would pull and hold me back. "Don't do it, don't do it..." It felt like being at the edge of a cliff. I would always insist on protection before going any further.
@@Morphine242 Bro Afghanistan 🇦🇫 is ruled under Taliban it’s complete sharia law where women has no right than to stay at home and breed basically sexism is there and Afghanistan 🇦🇫 is in a worst humanitarian crisis situation than ever before it is an economic factor
@@Morphine242How many of those kids are wanted, treated well, and raised right? What good is a birth rate of broken people? I often joke "If the Idiocracy did not shit out brats, what's the loss?"
I would like for this man to look at women who delayed careers in America to have children then got divorced and left by the father of their children, and see where they are in life. These are youtubers. Population decline started when stability was no longer an option. If you are not stable for 30 years to raise a child and see them into the workforce and working then, the risk of having children is extremely high.
He also needs to look at how many women sperm jacked some random guy to desperately get pregnant, then played the victim crying single mother on social media...
This worldwide problem has been caused by five intersecting problems. (1) The Industrial Revolution (2) man, children and family hating Feminism (3) A family court system that punishes men and rewards women, who are well capable of looking after themselves and don't need financial support from an ex-husband to survive (4) Legalised abortion. Millions of babies have been murdered each year since it became law that it is okay to do so (5) The falling away from Christianity coupled with decline in morality and family values. We simply hate God and His commandments.
This has no doubt occurred, but the reality is that this is a minority of divorces and have always been a minority. Women are the ones that have traditionally initiated divorce proceedings.
Women initiate almost 80% of the divorces, go look it up.
70-90% of the time it’s not deadbeat men. The remaining percent that can be blamed on legitimately bad and deadbeat men, are often deadbeat before the child, often badboys, and there are plenty of signs/redflags Don’t blame us innocent and good men. We don’t blame innocent and good women. We love them. Adore them. Appreciate them. Respect them Can you women do the same?
It’s funny how he avoided the question about the economy. It’s too damn expensive to have children and getting a career is a necessary for most high-paying jobs. Capitalism is the reason why people don’t want as much children and are starting parenthood later on.
You re totally right!
The former Soviet Union, contemporary China, and even Nazi Germany all suffered massive fertility problems, this is not a problem created by capitalism or solved by socialism.
@@robertmartin6800 I would advocate for something completely different- like a money-less society but that would take an essay to dive into. How would one justify the homeless when there are more homes vacant, and the rich having multiple mansions? It’s just greed, plain and simple, and massive ignorance about the vast income inequality we have. We shouldn’t just continue breeding to make slaves for the elite
Actually poor people have more children. We are low income and on baby #9. We grew up poor so we are used to not having much. Our children have more and are better off than we were. It's the more well off that are not used to going without so they won't downgrade their lifestyle to have kids.
@@inthisseason it’s true, the very poor are the ones having the most kids. But IMO it’s not a good thing. I wouldn’t bring children into poverty to just grow up to be slaves of the elite. It’s very hard to put one kid through college, imagine many.
House to expensive for new family . Old rich people have 4 home As an investment. Increase house prices
The rich d3stroid society and now want us to breed more slaves in order to keep their priviledges.
Many young people are lazy and won't work for a rent to put head over family head. My mom owns a company and we are seing many unmotivated lazy employees. People need to have some attitude changes
@@Always1happy In earlier times . The average human life expectancy is 40 years. Your mother should be gone and have left her property to you. So the majority of wealth always resides in the younger generation
@@Always1happy old rich people destroy Yong poor people future kzhead.info/sun/pKmDZMyjp4ONa30/bejne.htmlsi=Optp3S8VxQZOFyIi
@@Always1happy Old rich people destroy poor Yong people future kzhead.info/sun/pKmDZMyjp4ONa30/bejne.htmlsi=Optp3S8VxQZOFyIi
My antinatalism is focused on the abject misery that my life has been and not wanting to pass any chance of such experiences onto any potential children. As a wise man once said, "life is suffering". And Agent Smith had a point too, sadly. I wish it weren't so.
Why are you still here if it so bad?
@@jackpotbear4559probably because it is hard to fight ones own survival instincts. I often joke about how popular it would be if Futurama telephone booths existed.
I don’t know your life and I’m sorry if it’s filled with suffering. All I can say is joy is found in others not the self. Is denying autonomy and existence to others because you believe you know best for them fair? You’re not just making the decision for children but also for when they are adults. I understand your immediate experience should be the significant factor in having kids. But the potential person should be considered in the decision.
Jesus is ALIVE and coming soon!
@@jackpotbear4559Are you really questioning why person has NOT attempted suicide? Because that's what I infer from your comment. That's callous.
I think it could be a combination of Endometriosis, low sperm count - widespread Pthalates in the environment. Higher education funding. Social media replacing real relationships (huge birth rate dip during lockdowns). No reasonably priced accommodation for under 30's graduates in the UK.
Yes, plus limited upward mobility, depressed wages, and sky high rent. The last thing the megacorps will tolerate is line not go up.
It's too expensive to have children and a giant nightmare for women if they don't have a serious partner who does his part.
No. Hormonal contraceptives.
None of what you listed really matters. In 1965 in the US the age of first child on average was 19. Today it is 29. The vast majority of people who have issues giving birth post 30 could have most likely given birth sub 20. We treat biological adults as children (not making a value judgement here) and shouldn't be surprised that the birth rate has subsequently collapsed in response to that. I'm not saying we should have more teenage mothers, but if we pushed the importance of finding a spouse in your early 20s it may help. People don't have as much time as they think.
There's many reasons for collapsing birthrates, most of which are tied to the misdeeds of the greedy and power-hungry.
Why rip the non consenting out of perfect nonexistence so that they can be a plaything fir the rich?
@@skylinefeverwait are you an anti natalist?
@@nah131 I opt out of having children, and I have no problem when others opt out. I say people should choose to have kids if they can afford them and make life good.
@@skylinefeverI am too an anti natalist, sure is I don't want my unborn children to be suffered, life is a gamble where the system is rigged.
Birth rates aren’t plummeting because of “antinatalist”. They are plummeting because governments and companies have made it impossible to be a human woman with a life and a job of your own AND a mother.
I would not have been surprised to See Mr Hall reading a newspaper while Mr Shaw was answerimg the questions.
What is the optimum birth rate? Also, should the population carry on increasing until there is one person for every square metre of land? What would life be like when the population of the world reaches 20 billion? Or 30 billion? Does exponential human population growth have to stop somewhere or can it carry on infinitely?
Allegedly we are in nothing more than a digital matrix of frequencies so there's an infinite amount of "entities" we can sustain.
@@bribri1657 thats just bs
If we reach 1.7-1.9 that would still mean decline but slow enough to maintain retirment and healthcare system. Anything Below that will be nightmare long term. I think it's South Korea that has fertility rate like 0.8. Imagine what will happen next 30 years, when current working class will retire and new geberation will be less than half... I imagine they will up retirment age to 70 or Higher....
All of the old saws turn out to be true. For example, Nature knows best.
You haven't followed the recent Hungarian data. Birth rates are collapsing there as well. It fell from 1.59 in 2021 to 1.51 in 2023. The data for first months of 2024 show another -9,3% decrease
A senator here in Texas tried to get a bill passed that would eliminate property taxes for large families. It was immediately mocked and shot down. This would have been helpful to us because We have a large family and the $3,000 saving a year would have covered our homeschool costs. We know many who want to have children but are concerned about being able to buy a home. A forgivable loan or down payment assistance would help those wanting to start families.
Not only was that senator mocked he was even removed from office after what seems like a political trap. The world isn't ready to promote large families yet
A tax break for "the help"? That wouldn't serve our overlords at all, the whole issue is they don't want to pay the help anymore as it is, they would have to inconvenience themselves by making a lifestyle change, no, its way better to put guys like this on the budget to shame the poors into taking on more responsibility.
It's not the number of people on earth that's important, it's the quality and intelligence. There is a much worse collapse in that but they don't measure it.
Harvey Danger has been around the world and only stupid people are breeding.
What he fails to take in to consideration is with the advancement of robotics, AI, and all together automation we’re not going to need so many people in the near future
Hmmm. Very prescient! AI and its Impact on Society Oct 31, 2023, updated on April 11, 2024 We must ask ourselves, "What will happen when AI has taken 85% of jobs present in 2020? What will we do? How will we eat and survive without incomes from jobs or other means?" What is disturbing is that while AI is taking these jobs, the gov't and the corporations have not done ANYTHING to prepare us for an AI'ed civilization. They have not said anything about major retraining of an entire economy to something else, and they have not followed up on a discussion of universal basic income. This is supposedly supported by a lack of information in the latest government budgets submitted and approved as reported by some KZhead videos. It appears that the US gov't and the corporations intend to kill off the majority of Americans passively, through starvation from lack of income to buy food. (check and see if farming production is declining or will start to decline ahead of the "starvation phase") (also check to see if the "makeup" of robot equipment allocation would change to reflect a trend away from retail and services for the masses, possibly indicating an extinction of the American public - this means taking a robot from Chipotle and repurposing it for some other job not related to the public, or scrapping affected robots to be remade for some other purpose that has nothing to do with the public) It appears that the decline of farming has already started with the state of Maine buying farm land under the pretext that there are "forever chemicals" present at around 20 parts per TRILLION (safe level is said to be only 4 parts per TRILLION), which does not make sense, BUT this would rope in a LOT of land across the US. Other states may follow suit in addition to the ten states that have similar laws in place. This way, there are only enough people alive to get some things done, and the rest is done by AI, and the survivors who planned this can claim the whole country for themselves. Imagine having an estate mansion half the size of a mall on several dozen thousand acres of land, and robots would be used to maintain and clean the estates and do the farming FOR THE ESTATE OWNERS. The White Man's wet dream of civilization. What will the Native Americans south of the US border do when they see this coming, especially when they can buy firearms legally now? Hopi prophecy...
It takes too much energy and you don't have it
What you fail to take into consideration is falling EROI on energy production
I see you are part of a death cult.
Back in the day a lot of manual labor was replaced with machines, putting people out of work but also taking society to another level. There is a downside in that the machines also enabled 2 world wars. Not the machine's fault, humans' fault, but still. Now machines (AI) are taking over the "low grade college educated" jobs. What will we do with those machines? Go to war or take society to the next level? It's up to us.
Also just to note the highest birth rates in Hungary are of regions with significant Romani population. Those that are of with little Romani/gipsy inhabitants have very low fertility.
THIS
I know a solution, instead of flying immigrants to rawanda, the government can arrange flights for single UK men to go to Thailand and get a woman, and then give her national status when see gets pregnant 😊
Thailand brith rate is 1.4 Thai women don't have many children
Ok dude you see how racist this statement can be taken? So are you saying Thai women should just be viewed as breeding animals for UK men? How about the uk get what it deserves and the east and west bifurcate their economy leading to the destruction of the UK. Hope the Muslims take over the UK in the next 10 years 😊
Good idea. But I'm sure if the men outshore will like the competition. There is already a surplus of males in Asia etc.
Or any other non western countries. Wow I never thought of this. As a happily married woman with 6 sons I want my sons to be able to get married to women who appreciate men and actually want children. It's so hard to find western women who are feminine and family oriented.
We're all fine with muslim people outpopulating the native uk population right? If the UK men can't do it with their own women, what makes you think getting thai women are going to fix it? Its not only racist but the hilarious thing is that they are going to lose regardless, but thinking that thai women are just there as breeding material for uk men, well I wish you the best but also don't cry if the muslim population outpace the native uk population.
Who cares what happens to humanity? Nobody lives forever.
Whites don't live forever. Africans are the original people and will be the last ones standing. Thanks for building civilization for us... essentially. Maybe God put you on Earth to develop technology for Africans.
But you want good for your kids , dont you? Just as generations before, struggled to make your life better.
@@lovrovalentic3056 I'm not having kids
Tactical nihilism?
@@Stoddardian No, I'm gay and I don't like kids, and I couldn't afford to raise a family anyway. It all worked out though on account of climate change and plenty other people's preference for having children.
Look at mouse studies. Exactly the same things happening with human. It is a cycle.
Mouth utopia its called
@@mateuszsmagacz8332 I think the original name of the study was "Universe 25".
Feminine men and masculine women? Yep, that's our world now.
I thought zero population was the goal since the 1960’s. Now what? I’m so confused!
We are in the mouse utopia
Civilizations end either by being overrun or large numbers of people trickling away. This reminds me of the population explosion hysteria. There are a lot of people right now. We are coming down from the largest increase in population ever experienced. Population grew too fast and this is a correction. There are still 120 million Japanese. They could half those numbers easily and be fine.
There are many errors the Japanese could make which would make that collapse accelerate to zero. Like replacing their youth with immigration among other things.
I’m one of the few people who agree with you. Japan is the size of California; they’d be a happier country with a population of 40 million. Same goes for the UK. There’s no reason there should be 65 million people crammed onto the island of Great Britain. They’d also see an increase in happiness with a population half that
@@bensanderson7144 The 'happiness' of the wealthy few is the unhappiness of all of us who are falsely considered an “unnecessary surplus population.” We've been there already with Nazis' 'lebensraum' ideology🤦♂ There is no such thing as a “surplus population.” We are here for a reason. Human reproduction is its essence. The current global human population could be gathered in an area of just 54 miles on a side. You would be able to see the entire global population within the distance to the horizon, with the farthest people only 37 miles away. We already know about 2 or 3 habitable planets per PERSON, and we have only discovered a fraction of the existing Universe, let alone the multiverse.
@@TheGalacticIndian thats wrong
@@TheGalacticIndian Those are nice theories but for now we have to deal with the reality we have
People simply dont want to walk to a job , live on absolute edge of poverty. And women became pickier and will wait till 28-35 to have children. We want disposable income, modern housing , good cars , tech. And 2-4 kids. So a nice life.
Rome 1. That is how America will end as well.
No. Mouse Utopia
Thankfully this isn’t an issue about which to worry oneself. Human society is incredibly resilient when adapting to the needs of the living.
I'm not sure why he claimed Paul Ehrlich's work on the population bomb is 'ideology'. Our population doubling time keeps shortening, and if you graph it our population over human history has had a crazy spike over the last 100 years. The earth is now overpopulated, and we're seeing the effects of that in terms of resource use and waste. That can be true at the same time as the issues addressed in this video. Low birth rates have problems for the economy, but the population growth we've had has problems for the environment. One we can live without, one we can't. It will be good for the planet that our population decreases, and it needs to happen so we can live sustainably. Unfortunately our entire economic system is built on infinite growth, and we're seeing the failings of that now. A really interesting interview.
WW1, WW2, threats of WW3, Vietnam, Boer War, Irish civil war. We’ve got the message.
The government needs to majorly reform family court laws. Men are not getting married or having kids anymore until obvious things change.
The obvious solution to an increasing old population is us dying because of lack of health care. Yes, the NHS goes away because they won't be able to implement cost effective rationing between effort and health outcomes. State funded education goes away because the voters just won't care. The current civilization won't survive, but you have to identify that the current civilization is the welfare state, not necessarily the people living in particular areas. The crash in population will be slower than the rise happened. The reason it seems so traumatic is not the extent of the change. It is that the benefits occurred during the expansion by following folks natural inclinations and the cost will be paid for on the decrease unless folks can change their natural inclinations.
In the 1960s, there was a huge number of babies and women staying home, compared to the work force. A child is two dependents: the child himself and the adult who must supervise and care for him. Children don't need much health care but they do need a lot of expensive education. In my family the ratio of worker/taxpayer to dependents was 1:5. The bloke in this video is carrying on as if children aren't dependents.
No they don't there are plenty of occupations that need little to no studies. I took only two years for my two diplomas, and I have an average pay and could earn more if I wanted to move. One thing I am happy is that I quit my degree. My friends are now in a long debt they will only pay by mid 30s. Amyway you can expect to witness a wave of self terminations in the future, that is not good.
The massive number of degrees devalued the degrees and the apprenticeship system is gone. There should be a thing known as "Big School" and have all the contempt as big oil and big tobacco.
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rr Really? When did you apply for jobs after spending a year looking after a baby? You still have a child and will have to take time off work to look after him when he can't be in school. Do you really think that you would be able to compete with workers who have no family responsibilities?
I have a decent life, but as a mother, I feel like burden to everyone around me including broader family. Its not cool to have kids.
This is something that Peter Zeihan has been talking about as well. Zeihan's work supports what Stephen Shaw is saying.
When I was growing up, my country's population was half what it is now. Yet everything got done, even though the women were out of the workforce, raising babies, and a high proportion of the population was still too young to be in the workforce. The idea that the human population can keep increasing is irrational.
But in the future there will be a huge number of elders compared to the work force, that's the difference
They must work, end of story. There will be no room for retirement. Those who are unhappy about it causing trouble is our biggest issue, so i suggest we do something about the peoples ability to be hysterical. Its just the regular kind of purge, not a big deal for me as a 27 year old male. In addition, it will a biotech or die world, becuase it can address aging, disease, food, and replace the birth process. @@olefosshaug5565
You clearly haven't been paying attention to the technological advancements in agriculture medicine, transportation and housing that enable a.large population wand the fact that more.people means more prosperity and and overall improvement. Environmental activist socialism has blinded you. Thomas Malthus and his spiritual descendants have been thoroughly debunked and yet people still cling unto population growth alarmism.
@@olefosshaug5565 In the 1960s, there were a huge number of babies and women compared to the work force. Children are dependents too. They don't need much health care, but they need expensive education. Young populations have a higher proportion of dependents than older populations. The elderly are often self-sufficient and sometimes even economically active.
So that is your take from the whole video? Geez...
Of all the looming crisis the world faces, this one frightens me the most. We can cope with war, climate change, and even massive _overpopulation_ easily enough, but population collapse in another thing entirely.
What population collapse? World population is growing by 100 million a year.
@@NashHinton I said "looming," as far as I'm aware populations aren't falling anywhere on account of low fertility yet. The birthrates around the globe fell below replacement within living memory, many of the people born immediately _beforehand_ are still alive, but once they start dying off en masse the population will begin to fall, because the people who came afterwards haven't had enough children of their own to replace them. Once the Boomers start shuffling off their moral coils, here in the next few decades, we'll see that population growth slow, and then turn negative.
@@robertmartin6800 And we all will be better off with a smaller human population. We have a huge workforce now, because women stopped giving birth to dependents and became taxpayers.
@@chriswatson1698 That's a dreadfully Malthusian perspective, I don't know that I agree with that at all, part of why we are as wealthy as we are is that there are so many of us working and generating so much new wealth all the time, if there were fewer of us we would have fewer mouths to feed, but there would be less food to go around. Even accepting that premise for the sake of argument, that's only true in the very long term, or if the decline were _very_ gradual. As it stands, in the immediate future, for the next couple of generations, the problems that population decline are going to create will be enormous, and the _speed_ of the decline is going to be such a sharp, abrupt shock to our civilizations that the consequences will be magnified significantly. A good analogy might be something like; it would, at least apparently, be good if we were no longer dependent upon hydrocarbon fuels for energy, but only if we're able to ween ourselves off of them over the next century or two, it _wouldn't_ be good if we ran out of hydrocarbon fuels tomorrow.
@@chriswatson1698did you even listen to any of the points raised in this video?
18:00 the only reason the birthrate in Hungary increased is because of the Roma. Magyar fertility is still 1.2
What a surprisingly good channel!
Given how horrible women are being treated world wide and how little we are regarded, what the hell is in it for us? I have one child who is profoundly disabled and he can't do even the simplest of tasks for himself. I would give up my life for him in a nanosecond, but had I know this was going to be our lives,I never would have had a child. And his Dad abandoned us so I reared him alone. The whole thing has been devastating. I can't recommend parenthood if I care about about other people. It's up to the woman if she wants to be a parent. Thanks to our misogynistic Supreme Court, women no longer have protected right to choose across the nation. In otger words, we have a group of misogynistic sickos that would rather force women to give birth rather choose whether they are financially and mentally able to have children. Well,women have already died from loss of access to reproductive health care. So now wonen are taking too much of a rosk having children. Its also expensive as hell, so many are opting out of whole situation. We are now going 4B in America like the movement started in Korea because women are done with the domestic violence, poverty, lack of resources they need to parent children, or having a partner that actually does his part in patenting.
I had admiration for you. People like you must be heard an cared for.
No money to care for you or your child yet they have unlimited $$ to give to illegal aliens. It has to be obvious at this point that this is not a coincidence
Everybody agrees, if you don't want children then nobody's trying to convince you otherwise
Total nonsense. Women were treated far worse centuries ago and yet we had very high fertility. If anything, women are treated too good.
The fertility/population rate doesn’t have much to do with how egalitarian our society is. Maybe 4B can exacerbate the population problem, but it isn’t the cause. They certainly aren’t capable of fixing any problem.
What's really sad is that my generation, gen-x, had a good chunk of our kids during teenage up to 20 years old. To young to be mothers in many cases. Generation after us, saw this and learned. Unfortunately, they learned that they didn't care to be mothers themselves. I wanted kids, but most of the people I dated already had ready made families that were missing a father. I wanted to start fresh. Unfortunately, most of the women available wanted to wait until it was too late and they could not longer have kids. Sadly, I missed my opportunity. Yeah, I'm not buying that economic argument either. If these people were honest, even if they were secure financially, they wouldn't have kids. Maybe they are similar to me in my 20s where there was really no true opportunities. There were women, but many had kids and/or they didn't want any more.
Suicide in 1914.
The education system, social media, chemicals, machine like life is the reason why population is going down. I say let it fall organically. Do not try to push it up artificially. That would be a disaster
The problem seems to be not the shrinkage in population, but the dependence on systems that rely, like a Ponzi scheme, on increased population, generation after generation. Social welfare systems were made to help the poor elderly widow and then expanded. The people who are most dependent on these systems are the poor. The wealthy can afford healthcare and all of that without relying on the government. Also, the people who are not having children are people on the left, primarily, who are the advocates of the systems. Leftists don’t want the children, but they do want the welfare system…
There is already intergenerational conflict. We are trying to raise a larger family while paying taxes for social security to boomers who spent their lives consuming and not saving. We will not see that money back. On top of that we are asked to support our own boomer parents who again did not save or have enough children so that way there'd be more of us to share the burden. This will only continue to get worse as the tax burden becomes unbearable and people with no siblings are the primary caretakers of aging parents. I fear for what will happen to those who don't have any children in old age. There will be no one who loves them to make sure they're not being abused, and it will be easier for the government to write them off for the "greater good" as I fear it will be presented.
Tell you what. As a 64-year-old childfree man, I share absolutely none of your fears. “They” can confiscate my future, but not the quiet and productive life I have had up until now, free of children and family constraints.
Life has just become more competitive over time, and eventually, more and more people are going to fall off and not procreate. Capitalism is working perfectly and these are the boundaries that it absolutely had to come up against. It's up to humans to move into an optimized population model in the coming centuries (after all the imminent suffering).
Competitive in Western and Eastern countries. Thank God that Third World countries are behind so they can learn from the mistakes of the First World. Already African women reject Feminism, even if it could actually help them rise higher in tax bracket, they refuse Feminism.
What's with the intercut of the female guest at 36:16?
I presume she is the Charlie Bentley Astor referred to by the interviewee.
@@raymond7427 it certainly is. Thanks for clarifying.
Wait... you called her "female"? Gosh... cringe!
@@anhangamirim cringe away, snowflake
I really like this guy. He is giving out a great message and ringing a warning bell. I am surprised for someone who lives in Japan that he doesnt talk more about this as Japan is already 30 years into their demographic crisis. There are a million and a half abandonded homes throughout Japan and its only getting worse. Schools are being converted into old homes, but the country keeps functioning. I dont beleive that Human civilisation will collapse due to depopulation but there sure will be some changes.
This argument is based on the assumption that the projections used are accurate but they may not be accurate. the alarmist argument that population decline is a problem is just the flip side of the alarmist talk in the 1970s that we were going to have too many people. The truth will be somewhere in the middle. The life expectancy in places like the USA has already started to stagnate plus the poor diet, loneliness epidemic and wider social problems means that the current generation are unlikely to live as long as the current elderly population, so the fear that things like the NHS will be overwhelmed is probably unfounded, especially if you consider the different A.I. technology coming down the line which can help prevent illnesses like dementia and strokes etc which will reduce the cost of such illnesses in the future by reducing the number of who get these costly illnesses. We may get a loss of population from a lower birthrate but also a lower population from a reduction of the population reaching retirement too so it will level itself out creating a new equilibrium with those that do reach retirement being healthier until the end of life.
Nope, they have solid evidence the other side was terribly wrong and we really have to worry about the downside. But I see forecasting your solution as a gigantic wave of self terminations. Is that any good for you?
The alarmists of the 1970s proved to be right. We do, indeed, have too many people on earth and our Earth is not coping with human consumption and waste.
Look around. This is exactly what it looks like. The specific idea doesnt matter. Just that a faulty idea takes holsl
As mr shaw said there are pockets of people with large families. If they raise their children well , they will also have large families and so forth. In a few generations this will be the norm again. The meek shall inherit the earth.
Let them inherit the earth. What do we care, we the childfree, we who have abandoned the idea of immortality through children, we who have nothing but despise for the very concept of immortality?
Or social media has turned each individual person into a llc social influencer marketing brand. How do corporations mate?
In a farming society children pay their parents back in manual labor before they leave the home. In a technological society children take 30+ years to pay their parents back if they ever do.
No, it's just less obvious. We've created pension systems and a welfare state. Which is good, I'm very pro those. But...they are paid for by the young in a transfer of wealth from young to old. That's how our current society functions, and has meant plenty of freeloaders without children (myself included) get back 10 times what's paid in to pension pots. Someone else's children will pay for my pension, just like they will yours most likely.
The human population is collapsing and the African population is exploding. What could possibly go wrong?
The corpos could put their faith in magic dirt and invite them in.
The world's population is still growing. Our Earth is not coping with the consumption and waste of 8 billion humans.
Oh how I wish you could live long enough to see the misery that is to come as the population plummets. That is a much scarier outcome, for us as a species at any rate. I have been praying for forty years that *this* time we had climbed high enough up the technological ladder to be able to make it 'stick' but, tho' we are close, unless we get fusion very soon, it's back to barbarism for us.
Harvey Danger has been around the world and only stupid people are breeding.
The number of deaths for natural disaster has only gone down Multiple countries have proven that economic growth is possible without increasing emissions The Situation is dire not hopeless In one lifetime, we have seen the largest growth of wealth in human history. We can do this
It's going up by 100 million a year. What is this guy smoking?
@@NashHinton Well, some populations are going up, some aren't. Harvey Danger has been around the world and only stupid people are breeding.
You cant say all women want kids becaise so many parents complain about kids
How can it be that the average family size has remained the same while the average age of marriage has been rising? are mothers having children closer together?
It's the housing prices. Young people cannot afford to buy a home anymore
No, women since the start of humanity have been able to have children up untill very late in life. Those who live long have a fertility range up until 50 years. Look at when was the last child born to women who have large families. They had a surprise child in their late 40s. I think most men who are not married or who are not really interested in women and women's health do not understand that many women don't want children. Many women delay having children because they don't want them at all or initially. Very few want them from the get go. Those who do make moves in their careers to ensure they can have them. Ie, freezing their eggs. I guess conservative men need to understand that ivf is the future because stable careers don't exist anymore.
There are solutions.
I think best time living was 60‘s to 2019
Titus 1:15 - 2:5 ...that the Word of God be not blasphemed.
😊
Africa is still exploding
the elephant in the room is abortion-- why does he refuse to deal with the statistics from this massive baby slaughter . Its not ,of course the only factor but it is surely a very important consideration,which can be largely stopped.
Abortion only has a marginal effect.
How do you slow population growth across any and all cultures without anyone even realising it? Empower women (even to the point of absurdity) but say it’s about equality. It’s more effective and subtle than a one-child policy. And again, it works across ALL cultures. No exceptions.
Yes, then when those women enter the workforce and contribute to the GDP, blame capitalism as well.
Can Stephen comment on the feminist thought process of women delaying having children until they have established their careers and even more so, not having children?
Okay this makes me wonder if men are much more eager then women to start families and have kids before establishing a stable career.
@@FluxNomad678aha, with anti-men judicial approach and divorce rates filed by women and taking away children and assets from men.
The absence of a legally enforceable marriage contract makes motherhood untenable.
FairPoint if I understand what you're implying. A woman trying to be a traditional housewife and mother who lacks job skills could be in serious trouble if ever divorced and on their own or even a single mom. Even aside from that if the husband had an untimely death I think the modern economy is way too brutal for an unskilled person to try to suddenly enter the job market
@@FluxNomad678 Ageism kicks in at about 45. Employers don't want older people with no experience, even with qualifications.
You’re worrying about absolutely nothing. The Worlds population has almost tripled in my lifetime (I’m 61). Replacement birth rates are nonsense because as Western (yes and this is the issue) populations have shrunk so has available infrastructure. Societies expand and contract to suite the economic landscaper and resources available. Put simply, populations don’’t need to expand as many countries are struggling to look after, house and employ the population levels they already have.
I agree. What we need is a revised economic model aside from endless exponential growth. I think AI is going to change the economic landscape over the next 20 years more than anything we've seen. I worry more about social unrest due to rapid demographic shift than falling birth rates over the next 70 years. I just try to remain optimistic and trust that we can adapt and work together as a species.
The human race will just adapt, as it always has.
Keep dreaming.
But it will hurt the rich people's lifestyle.
By becoming smaller in popularity yes..
Yes, ultraconservatives and ethnonationalists will inherit the Earth.
Since the 1950s. the world's population has more than tripled. If we can shrink the world's population back to what it was in 1900, we will all be better off. The world's population is still growing.
You will also have to go back to 1900 standards of living and technology
@@davidjohnson-tq4qx Why?
@@chriswatson1698 2 reasons: 1. The loss of knowledge from population collapse resulting in a competency crisis. The beginning stages of this have already occurred just by replacing workforce with immigration. What we have leaned from this error is that civilization cannot be communicated. Furthermore, advanced technology of the complex type does actually require large numbers of people to explore ideas of which most will not result in productive outcomes. 2. The energy crisis. Return on investment from hydrocarbon energy surplus will begin to plumet in about 3 years and there is no replacement. You cannot build wind mills with wind mills
@@chriswatson1698 also, all of the most easily accessible resources have already been consumed. We can only obtain raw materials now with large scale production and high capacity energy surplus from hydro carbons. We mine Copper in the parts per million now. So when we lose the ability for large scale production we cannot just restart at a smaller scale
@@chriswatson1698 so it will actually be more like the 1600's
Doom and gloom sells
Tell that to South Korea.
Here's my take. The world is overpopulated. There is ecological overshoot now. But another way to look at it, we've hitched a ride these last couple of centuries or so on fossil fuel, but that's coming to an end, gradually but inevitably. The way down won't be as joyful as the way up, so in essence what Mr. Shaw says is music to my ears, the lower number of people in the future is inevitable. I'm all for people who want kids to have them, but by what you say birthrates are decreasing anyway. It dawned on me that lack of feeling of social mobility might be at fault and the rat chase continues. So maybe the economic system that brought all this material gain is the same one that is unmotivating people to bear children. Listen to human ecologist William Rees for a contrasting view!
Sounds like the decline of faith in god is the biggest factor, mabye that can also be translated as hope for a better future is declining?
Every society had the exact same issue - children and society are built on the unpaid labor of women. Men get an education, get a job, make money, get promoted and never worry about carpools and birthday parties and sick kids. Women get jobs who don’t allow time off for doctor’s appointments, can’t promotions if they have kids, are expected to cook and clean and run the errands and plan holidays and take care of the elderly (both their husband’s and their own). It’s only a shock to the men who benefit from this unpaid labor why women would choose to not become mothers or wives.
If it’s TED talk or “thought leader” you can be sure it’s very dodgy. Falling birth rates are very good news. In Philippines for example, women can see clearly that if they have 10 kids like their mum did there’s nowhere for them to go in 20 years time, other than the NHS in UK of course. If I were young in Japan or China I’d be very relieved about the 1.4 or even latest .78. Real opportunities coming.
Ahh, the "Silver Lining of the Back Death" position :)
@@dallassukerkin6878This is the real reason for open borders political moves. The bigshots will do anything not to be like feudal lords after the plague.
Your argument seems to be that couples only remain childless because of delays in starting families. Or perhaps medical problems. But nowhere in your presentation did you mention abortion. The discontinuity between the 1960s and the 1970s in the UK at least, seems to me to be due to widely available abortions. I have never seen calculations of what the fertility rate would have been in western countries in recent years if there had been no abortions performed.
I don't think these individuals understand how people in their 20s are dating, and the ridiculous unrealistic standards women gave for a lifelong partner. How many women want to settle for an average earning man?
Governments need to do more to support familes, not just importing immigrants.
Thankfully these days men can get pregnant 😄
Why do you still have female politicians?
You re are the reason women avoid males.
Let's not pretend the male politicians are all that great.
@@Stoddardian females admire great leaders, so when you ask a woman to lead you it should be no surprise when she admires your enemies
If we want to fix the problem, we need to look at which countries have the highest birth rates and emulate them. Outside of Africa, the highest is Afghanistan, with women having 6-7 children each on average. Perhaps we have something to learn from other cultures?
Wrong. It is because that country is a Muslim country, and they want to spread Islam. Do you have any idea what happens to women and their rights within Sharia courts? Do you have any idea how they think of themselves and think of YOU if you are not Muslim, as compared to how Hindūs, for example think of themselves and others? Study Islamic invasions of India, documented by no other than Muslim scholars. See, Muslim men are circumcized, and and so have lost sensitivity down there. They're always trying to have that full orgasm experience that they can never have, and they're always striving for that experience, just like they have been mislead to think that they are human beings trying to find that elusive spiritual experience. It's so sad, really. My Mom knew about this and so didn't allow my brother to be circumcized because she knew the difference in response between circumcized and uncircumcized men and explained it to me when the topic of sex came about as a child.
Yes, women have learned from those countries. Which is why they are not having children.
@@chriswatson1698 Then we need to more closely emulate Muslim countries, so they have children. Especially if Muslim countries are the reason why they are not.
@@Morphine242 There is NO problem. Women have little freedom in Muslim countries. We don't want to be like Muslims.
@@Morphine242 Women in Muslim countries are in a difficult position. They have few rights and little freedom. Observe the direction of migration. Who is migrating to Muslim countries permanently?
At the same time he needs to look at the number of women who left the child's father and pushed him away after cheating, and how many women stole sperm from a random guy just to get pregnant then used them for an ATM machine while crying on social media that they are a single mother...
Easy solution. Ban hormonal contraceptives till youve had 2 kids.
The earth will be beautiful again after humanz LEAVE.
No, just enough that my fishing spot isn't over crowded then we'll be good. 👍
"God is simple. Man is complicated." ~ Mother Meera. Be fruitful and multiply ~ Genesis 1:28
But I fear lest by any means, as the serpent beguiled Eve through his subtlety, so your minds should be corrupted from the simplicity that is in Christ. II Corinthians 11:3
The pill! The day after the pill women were free. They could have sex with whomever they wanted no consequences. This lead to inflated value.
Let me quote Mark Knopfler: "What you gonna do about it?"
Incorrect. The pill was illegal for ten years after the start of Japan's birthrate declines. As the interview says, the start of most birthrate declines correlate with big economic shocks. It's all economics 100%
@@jaykay5142 Yep. That also. Where there is no will, there is no way.
@@jaykay5142 Economics? We were much poorer centuries ago and yet had very high fertility. It's female liberation and emancipation. That's the problem.
@Stoddardian watch the birth gap doc, it's very good. The only thing that was found to correspond to big changes in birth rates are these economic 'shock events'.
26:30 WRONG!!!!!!!!!!! MOST WOMEN DON'T WANT TP BE MOTHERS
He's done the research.
@@Stoddardian Honey, we are Gen Z. His research is due to how people feel NOW. Feelings change over time.
@@suezcontours6653 Honey? I'm not your honey.
Nuclear family is a curse
How?
Titus 1:15 - 2:5 ...that the Word of God be not blasphemed.