The UK Housing Market Has Changed Forever - The Preserve of the Wealthy
There used to be a housing ladder which enabled people from all social classes to buy a house and share in the "British Dream" but at the moment, many find themselves on the wrong side of a broken market. Why it happened, and the implications for society.
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Sources:
www.economist.com/britain/202...
www.ft.com/content/985a608e-1...
www.centreforcities.org/reade...
www.Yougov.co.uk/economy/arti...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-4...
economy2030.resolutionfoundat...
About
► www.economicshelp.org was founded in 2006 by Tejvan Pettinger, who studied PPE at Oxford University and teaches economics. He has published several economics books, including:
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► What Would Keynes Do? Amazon amzn.to/2xShqq4
In this video, I looked at impact of immigration on housing. kzhead.info/sun/e91ro9GfkKiklqc/bejne.html (one omission from this video)
Too scared to say the obvious reason so how can we trust this guys view. Silenced as most are on youtube to say what is in front of them.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 10% to 14% and 5% to 6% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
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Finding financial advisors like Natalie Noel Burns who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
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I bought this place in 1988 when I was 19 years old. I had a decent job that paid well so I doubled my mortgage repayments and paid my 30 year mortgage off in just 7 years! Its an old place, huge garden, built in the early 1700s. Nothing is flat, plumb, square or level. but its well built and the best decision I made. I just didnt have as much fun as I could have had in my early 20s due to not having much spare money to pi55 up the wall. Eventually as my parents aged, they moved in with me. Most of my extended family and hangers on had no idea it was my place, they just thought I was 35+ and still living with mum and dad. I couldnt be bothered to set them right. I have no kids to pass the place onto but when I die, considering that most of my family stopped talking to me after my parents will was read ( I guess they wanted a slice of the house etc, lol) I decided, my little cousin is the only one who visits me and who is actually a nice person. They will get everything.
R u sure about the cousin? L
The sacrifices you made in your 20s were very wise. Most people don’t have your self discipline because our system is designed to turn us all into rabid consumers buying things we can’t afford and things we don’t need while stopping us saving for things we do.
What's the point of it all if you don't have children I have 3 houses two of them are rented & the other one i live in luckily my mortgages are paid off.
@@mohammedhussain-jd7er Having Children is not the be all and end all of years gone by. Having security for life has taken over in certain aspects, as many don't want children anymore.
@@mohammedhussain-jd7er You’re looking at it from a specific lens…..and I say that as someone who has 3 children! I never thought I’d be widowed at 37, never thought my husband would die (at age 38) before I did, as his health was generally good, whereas I’d been ill for several years…… I even put the properties (6 of them) into his name - took my name off them, as I was really poorly. Then in Feb 2017, I was in a house fire. I thought my time was up, I couldn’t escape as the fire was severe, I couldn’t see beyond the black smoke, I couldn’t breathe. I rang 999 and whilst on the call, I told them I was worried Imran (my husband) may be across the street at my parents, as he’d make me breakfast in bread, do the school run and then go and help my parents who lived directly opposite us (we’d moved into one of their houses, as we needed help with the kids, due to my health)….. My instincts were correct. My husband saw the fire and didn’t even pause to put his shoes on! He ran in, up the stairs into the bedroom, where I was unconscious. He broke the window using furniture, but it wouldn’t shatter, so he used his bare knuckles too. He carried my “lifeless” (unconscious) body in his arms and jumped. When we hit the ground, we both suffered from injuries, both were in ICU (he was in Neuro ICU and me the general ICU), but sadly Imran had a brain haemorrhage and then caught Sepsis from being on a ventilator. He passed away a few days after I’d woke up. I didn’t build what I have for my children alone, it was supposed to be for both of us, but more importantly I wanted Imran to have an “easy” life, if something happened to me, as our elder son is severely disabled. I love my kids, but I’ve never loved anyone like I loved Imran…… I really don’t think I’d have bought the properties (BTL’s) for my children alone, I’d have wanted to enjoy life a bit more with my husband. Yes, I’m a millionaire, but what’s the point if you have no one to enjoy it with….. 😢 My father passed away 2 years after my husband, but before he did, he tried his best to convince me to “move on”, but I will never re-marry. I can’t love anyone else and on the day my husband was being buried, I knew that I wanted nothing more than to be buried next to him, so I purchased the burial plot next to his….. I guess the point I’m trying to make is that the person/people you’re doing it for, may pass before you, even our children….. We should do things for ourselves FIRST, but I know that I don’t often follow my own advice!! Now that my husband has gone, I still don’t “enjoy” life and my guess is that you’re no different….. We know what we should be doing is to “enjoy life”, we’re tell others “what’s the point”, but we often don’t follow the advice we dish out….. I know I don’t. Anyway, I’m sorry for the long message. One of my autistic traits is that I have a habit of rambling! 😂
One of my current bugbears is builders building 3,4,5 bedroom homes and calling them ‘affordable’!
We have a housing shortage in Norfolk, for the locals that is. Plenty houses being built but are affordable (£350,000 plus for retirees from London etc).
Housebuilders only really build 3+ because they are more profitable because they know older millenials soon to be gen z will be later 20s/early 30s to buy them. Whereas in the 80s/90s people were happy to buy 2 bed homes as a starter then buy a bigger home. That doesn't happen now.
You forget that local councils want large houses built so encourage it, because the larger the house the more council tax they can extort
Or not really finished to any good standard, I would never buy a new build they use cheap materials, always go for an old house so much better off, my first house actually had proper floor boards, which is so rare, most are chip board, and not enough space between the heating pipes either, I onlyI noticed this because we had rewiring done, had too otherwise wouldn’t have got the mortgage, back in the 80’s but the electrician said it was such a well built house because it had proper floor boards, it’s just that People don’t bother to look after these old houses and let them get rot and damp such a shame, Don’t build houses like 1930’s builds anymore 😒
Yes, it's a joke. If you've got enough money, anything is affordable!😅
Key point missed: immigration. The UK builds 200K houses a year, net migration is running at 500K-700K over the last few years!. The UK Govt house building target of 300K homes per year is based on net immigration of 170K a year, yet immigration has been way higher than this for years. So even IF they could build the 300K homes target each year, it won't touch the sides without a big cut to immigration.
Around 500k people emigrate from the U.K every year (increasing), so the numbers aren't nearly as bad as you're pretending they are.
@alfsmith4936 the key point I raised is 'net migration' that is the number of people entering the country minus those that leave. In 2022 - 1.3 million people moved to the UK, 600K people left the UK, which left us with Net migration of an extra 745,000 people in the country.
@@FreeloaderUK Apologies, you are correct. I checked the ONS and saw this.. "The increase in overall net migration since the introduction of the new immigration system in January 2021 is entirely driven by the change in net migration of non-EU nationals. This has increased from 179,000 in YE June 2019 to 768,000 in YE June 2023." Just another Brexit benefit?
@alfsmith4936 No, the Tory govt relaxing immigration controls to prop up struggling universities and low wage businesses.
money
I recently went back to London after 5 years. There were close to 3000 new flats in the area where I used to live. The traffic is absolutely crazy. And they are not building new schools or new hospitals or new GP surguries to cater to all this new demand... Just selling 600sqft of space on each floor for £600k. Total insanity.
Living in London 9 years now. Pretty much entire Elizabeth line, zone 2-6 is a massive housing project. Last 3 years in Hayes and Harlington. Block after a block for minium of 350k for one bed and extra 30k for parking space and like you said, traffic is horrible, no new hospitals, gps, nursery's and shops. Moving out in September
If I could describe London in one world it would be…dump get out while you can, get a 4/5 bed detached in the north for 300k
You have nailed it. This is exactly the question I ask myself as a born and bred Londoner. Everywhere you look there are Sim City tower block monstrosities built for foreign students or foreign investors. Neither of the groups I have an axe to grind with, it’s the councils not developing the infrastructure or public services to go alongside that are borderline corrupt. It’s so sad because we just seem to chase foreign investment at any cost.
I lived in a rural village, then 10 years ago they started the new builds now with all that you mention. These places are ugly ghettos for white flight.
@@third7715but then for those who can't work remotely it'll mean a significant drop in salary for lower paying Northern jobs
British society has been split in renter / home owner (bank of mum and dad,) The home owner faction has the media playing to its tune. The politicians follow suite. The UK economy is dependent on rising house prices. It's the drug we can't give up. When McDonnell wanted to make house prices part of the inflation target the home ownerist weren't too happy. Such a sad situation that peoples average people are waiting for inheritance to give them a boost.
WHENHOMES ARE USED AS PART OF GDP And The fact that This Dose Not ADD UP?
problem is higher house prices waiting for an inheritance boost you will end up getting taxed on inheritance or losing it all due to family member needing care from care homes, milking the money your parents have saved up and put aside either way if your not well off or parents not well off enough to give it while they are living your screwed.
You are right, and there will be a revolution.
@locien182 you're not likley to lose much if anything to inheritance tax but the council taking everything down to the last £16k for end of life care is very likely.
Good video, but you can talk about interest rates, inflation, Price earnings ratios. But the bottom line is that in 2000 the uk population was 58 million, as of january 2024 it is 68 million. You can not go on increasing population by 400 or 500k a year, for decades on end, And then be supprised when housing becomes unaffordable and pay becomes depressed.
hello
"You can not go on increasing population by 400 or 500k a year, for decades on end, And then be surprised when housing becomes unaffordable and pay becomes depressed." Average Voter; *Surprised Pikachu face*
Did you even watch the video? The increase in population should’ve meant an increase in the amount of housing being built, but the government has failed that
@@harrisr1018 yes, I did watch it (twice). You can not just go on building everywhere. The UK already has a population density of 280 per s/KM. Against France with 101 and Spain with 95 or Sweden with 26. You can not just go on building on farmland , gardens, parks etc etc
@@patdbeanthe UK has PLENTY of land to build on... just no building actually taking place.
He’s very wrong about one key thing. None of this costs the government anything. It costs us; the people; the tax payer. It’s our money the government are spending. We should be very interested in what they’re doing with it.
We are, and I'm pissed about the level of corruption. Back handers to friends of tory ministers. Tax policies and public spending aimed at increases Suanks family investments. HS2 wasteful use of money. They spend it like kids in a sweet shop.
Yep. No house building schemes under the Conservatives. No laws brought in to deal with NIMBYism OR banning buying property for investment purposes OR career landlords who own 50+ houses. Their part ownership schemes have backfired on many of those who did it - often the poorest in the workforce who shouldn't have to worry about keeping the roof over their heads. Their home ownership saving scheme was shown to be a joke at best. We have councils going broke because of Tory cuts. AND Tory austerity measures have been shown to have directly lead to Brexit, which in turn is leading to a slower economic growth and lower quality of product on British selves because of the massive loss in EU checks. For example Boots have been shown to be selling fake PPE.
@@idontwanttopickone What's wrong with career landlords? We are facing a crisis in some areas as small landlords sell up causing a shortage in the rental market with rents then going up. Renting houses is just business, like your garage and your corner shop. People rely on them too.
@@kevinu.k.7042Landlords don’t ’provide housing’ though they buy existing housing and rent it on for extortionate prices. They are no different to a ticket scalper except a scalper doesn’t sell basic necessities for living. They should be replaced entirely by COOPs and social housing like in Singapore-one of the only democracies in the world not currently in a severe housing crisis.
@@allergy5634 We shall have to disagree on the scalping. Another perspective is that landlords make housing available to those who need to rent _in the current market_. I rent a flat out in London. I don't have a mortgage on it yest still only make 3% net per anum against total value. Scalping? I'd get more in a deposit account. The problem is that a lot of small landlords are pulling out of the market because it doesn't pay. Shortages of rented properties are driving rents up, but here in London rents are already ridiculously high. Though I do agree with you expanding Council Housing is the way to go. I have little time for most Housing Associations, they bought their original stock from the Councils for pennies, then they became profit lead and now most are quoted on the stock exchange. Driven by profit. Yes, Co-ops are a good idea too. The problem with Housing in the UK is that it is commoditised.
I'm 49 and earn about £2M annually and save about 30% in HYSA's. I've been reading a lot of articles mentioning how worthless 'cash savings' are in this current unstable economy. Do you suggest I invest in real estate, stocks or Gold?
you need a certified financial planner straight up! personally, I invest in ETF's and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but am comfortable in my financial environment
Agreed, After taking charge of my portfolio in early 2017, i stumbled into losses. Upon realizing that a change was necessary, I consulted a fiduciary advisor in 2020 and since then my £3.2m portfolio has gained 28% annually through restructuring and diversification using dividend equities, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
Heather Ann Christensen is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Heather appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
745,000 arriving in the last year alone... they aren't all house builders either.
Exactly this. We are ever increasing our population (let alone with un friendly, un useful and completely different cultures) every year. I've seen supermarkets predicted our population is nearer to 80milion now.
This is the main reason for the housing shortage
@@dermotsheehan8614 100%. We (the natives) haven't been able to maintain replacement population levels for decades (1.7 children per household).
But... but... they're skilled workers!
@@avipatablebut 745,000... in one year?? China and Japan have a population replacement problem but you don't hear about them letting vast amounts of people into their country.
Isn't it kind of weird though.. folks can just buy their council house at lower than market rate and then just turn around and sell it for market price 5 years later..
It's a scandal, blatant theft of social assets.
Or rent it for double the price of social housing
They all end up being sold to people like Richard Tice, so he can rent them out for double what the council charged.
Maggie what have we done...To England...!!!?
They don't sell off housing stock with massive reductions anymore. People do get reductions but you have had to live in it for at least 5 years. So if you've paid rent for that amount of time then you have earnt a reduction
Remember buying my first house in 1978 for £7.5k ,was earning £70 a week at a local food factory. The very same house now with a flat roof small extension on the kitchen was sold for £520k 2 years ago.
Wages higher also .
@@snf321gotti6 £70 per week x 52 weeks is £3640 per year. Times this by 5 and you get £18,200 per year, which is roughly about the same as factory worker in the UK earns in 2023/24 (probably less after tax, NI, pension etc.). £7,500 x 5 = £37,500. This is a colossal disparity. The house has increased in price by over 63 times, while the wages have only increased by 5 times at most. This is why people are unable to afford a house.
@@jakemorgan9275 yes according to that there is a huge disparity and yes it is very difficult . Those days are long gone. However not impossible. Average salary for people is actually in the 30/50 k mark . A couple both working with combined income of 50/60 k could HAVE saved up and then mortgaged a house upto 250/300k with a 10 percent deposit . However looking at what has happened in the last 18 months it's priced people out with higher rates and the demand is so high it's hard to now get a decent house at a reasonable price .
@@jakemorgan9275 In that way of computing yes it is a huge disparity. Buying a house is difficult but not impossible. Average salary is not 18k per annum it's realistic for most at around 25k low end but 35/40 k is achievable . A joint couple working could with a 10 % deposit 25k obtain a mortgage on 250k house , 250k being the average price. Not 500k.
@@jakemorgan9275 exactly. Why the fuck is this so difficult for people to grasp
Great video. The UK is a sinking ship due to greed, much like a lot of countries around the world. Too much money tied up in houses, with 40 year mortgages or people forced to pay uncontrolled rents that have increased more 30% in 3 years....
I think the only way forward is a conversion of all those empty shops in town/city centres into flats as an interim measure at least?
And the empty pubs into Mosques
@@stephfoxwell4620 Most I know of are being converted into flats. It's the derelict CofE churches they seem to be converting into their temples.
I can tell you where the jobs are at
@@angelachanelhuang1651 Weren't you married to Jim Kerr? The Huang-Kerrs.
HI AS INVSTOR
Same thing has happened in Australia, once the great Australian dream was to own your own home but this is now all but impossible for young working Australians.
Try telling this to young Brits please. Flocking to Australia in droves searching for utopia.
@@k1nkstar448to be fair one of my friends (electrician) left from uk to Australia. I asked him “What do you like about Australia?” “Loads of things mate, nice weather, good lifestyle, less crime, better wages… The list goes on.”
@@k1nkstar448they're not going to find utopia, but they will find an economy that pays better wages. I have family members who saved up huge money to buy a house at home from their stint in Australia.
Agree. Made so much worse with the covid lockdowns when everyone wanted more space, moved to the regions, divorce rates increased, expats returned and saved a lot of cash. The prices sky-rocketed!
@@k1nkstar448Goodluck to them. They might find themselves sharing a room with 6 others or sleeping on tbe balcony. Is that a better life? There is a huge housing crisis happening in Australia, many immigrants have actually returned home because of it. It's too hard to make a decent life in Australia now.
London Wembley is insane. I go there once a month for work and each time another building project takes off ( another 300 appartment building) nightmare
I've just bought a 2 bed terrace. Before Boxing Day they were asking £135k. Then £130k. I bought it yesterday for £118k which was my first offer and they took it immediately. I think there are a lot of distressed property owners out there.
In London?! Find me one😅
For this money is hard to buy house in Poland
Blackpool
@@rafalmyrcha7738You can buy a 3 bed semi in any Midlands town in the U.K for less than that.
Be careful. Might be something wrong with it
Three things. For every council house bought in the eighties, a new one should have been built. Without there being any cap in house price growth, the Bank of England base rate also used to check increases in house prices. As they were too low for too long, this created a house price bubble which benefitted a few, but has been disastrous for many especially our youngsters trying to get on the ladder. Government meddling schemes have only served to prop up prices, and not helped the majority they were designed for.
And another 10 million and rising immigrants to exacerbate the shortage
never say never, could be a big change on the way. not just Britain,this is an international phenomenon.
I am a youngen and just bought my first home and although I agree the housing prices are insane, to save a deposit isnt as hard as people make it out to be. If you have children before you own a house however then you basically are going to be in rented until someone gives you money or you get a higher paid job so I do sympathise with those in that situation but if you have nothing going on then you should not be in debt firstly, you should be paying board which shouldn't be insane and if you earn lets say 1.5K a month even, you should be able to save a good chunk of money every month, making it possible to save 10k quite reasonable in 1 year, with two people involved thats 20K and a decent deposit. Me and my partner ended up saving a lot more then we needed and in tern invested the rest into the house when we bought it. We are both in our twenties.
Councils used to build whole estates ,employed 1000s of trade workers on a good wage ,but once they stopped and Private corps came in,the profit is in large houses not small affordable housing,1 large house needs 1 kitchen ,boiler ,and so on and reaps more profit ,so they didn't build affordable housing until government made them build 25% on a suitable size site ,,the U.K has never built 300,000 homes in a year in the last 25years!!!THEN SOLD MOST THE COUNCIL HOUSING STOCK OFF AT RIDICULAS PRICES TO THE THEN TENANTS!!WHERE DID ALL THE HOUSE SALE MONEY GO!! BECAUSE THEY DIDNT REPLACE THEM
Government wins when people use right to buy Imagine you live in a housing association home for 40 years. Housing benefits are £100 a week, so you only pay a small top up. Over 40 years the government pays you £200,000 in housing allowance Nice But your next door neighbour is "smart". They save up and pay half price for their house. Its a £200,000 home but they only pay £100,000. The bank charges them £100 per week to borrow the money, and they get absolutely nothing in housing benefit My question is, who was truly smart here? Owning the home simply means less benefits. The government saves a fortune in housing benefit payments when someone buys a council house. But the "smart" neighbour who buys their house ends up footing the bill for the rest of their life paying interest to the bank.
conservatives dont like us owning assets. they want us to rent from them. tories sold it all off and they never build anything. the fact they are all landlords i am sure plays no part in their decision ;) /s
Shhh. Just pay for the migrants.
I’ve just watched a few of your videos and I must say that these video essays are brilliant. Very well researched and put together!
In the story "The Emperor's New Clothes", the courtiers pretended not to notice that the king was naked, to avoid hurting the king's feelings. You similarly seem to skirt around the impact of net migration on the supply and demand equation. Is it to avoid hurting the feelings of others?
He's a left wing remainer, he doesn't want to draw attention to the fact mass immigration has had a catastrophic effect on housing, NHS, transport, councils, police and the very fabric of our society.
Tories dog whistle about immigration, yet enact policies which increase it. Asylum is a small fraction of immigration. Most immigration is economic. Immigration has doubled since 2018 according to ONS under Tories. And mostly now non EU.
oil giants
you will not find many honest people invested in the UK regime's longevity
If you look back through his channel he actually made a whole video about it
The asset owning class is about to make it much worse, they've been stashing their cash while interest rates are higher and will snap up "bargain" homes as soon as interest rates drop again.
That's the reality and why I shake my head when first time buyers naively pray for a crash as if they're not going to be outbid for cheaper homes by those with deeper pockets and higher salaries. There's no way around having to earn more money and save up for a bigger deposit
I almost think that this whole housing price wobble was planned so the rich could get a discount on houses. Once inflation is under control, house and stock prices are going to 📈📈📈
I think a housing crash will happen because all those people who bought homes over asking price, although it was at a low interest rate, they are over their heads. They have no equity if the housing prices continue to go down, and if for whatever reason they cannot afford the house anymore and it goes into foreclosure because even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I think this will happen to a lot of people especially with the massive layoff predicted for the future and the cost of living rising at a high speed.
I recently sold my home in the Boca Grande area and am considering investing a lump sum into the stock market before the anticipated rebound, couple of folks have been discussing a potential May rally, speculating on which stocks may experience substantial growth during the festive season. Do you have any insight into which stocks these might be?
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
David Willets adds more detail to this problem. Over 20% of boomers have bought investment properties, many of them have bought more than 1. So this very big demographic have bought probably 50% or more of the available first time buyer houses as investments. This is what has created the supply and demand problem for younger buyers who are being forced to rent. The rental income that boomers enjoy also contributes to the UK's productivity problem. They don't need to work, because property investing is a legalised scheme to transfer the earnings of those who work to those who don't. 60% of young workers take home pay goes to rent, meaning they are not investing in companies via stocks and shares ISAs and pensions, those investments are what will grow the economy. So there is a double negative caused by property investing which will eventually cripple the UK economy. Young people need to start voting and get political if they are to have any hope in the future.
I think that the monetary premium ( investment premium) component of price will start to reduce as more and more investors realise that housing isn't the best performing asset especially as the boomer wealth starts to be transferred to gen x and y who are more aligned with the exponential growth sectors of technology stocks and crypto assets and securities
The problem was made much, much worse with near zero interest rates. I had one property, in which I lived, and paid 1% interest for years. Nowhere else for boomers to put their money to get a return, so they were forced into real estate. I got smoked on the stock market in 1997 Asian crisis and again in 2008 GFC. I was young enough to partly recover back then but if I get smoked again, I'm toast. So I have zero in stocks and shares, countless millions the same as me. I'm finally getting a return on my savings after 15 years of nothing. The only things that have done well for me is gold and my house. I sold my house and rent an apartment now, living costs are about 70% of when I was a home owner.
Housing issues are land issues. What everyone is reluctant to discuss is whether the returns to land are justly distributed among society? Its arguable that as land is not supplied by human effort those returns should be equally distributed via the tax system. If that were the case, we wouldn't have any housing issues (land's selling price would be zero and rental incomes 66% lower) and we wouldn't need to tax output as heavily as we do (if at all), which currently shrinks our GDP by 30-50%. Tejvan Pettinger, is just another brainwashed economist who has been indoctrinated into believing everything that ails society is due to supply side problems. Disastrous for society.
Willetts is pushing an agenda. He doesn't even know when the UK had a birth boom. It was 1958-72.
Confirms what I have long suspected, and that is that the Tories aren't incentivised to make housing more affordable because that would bite their private incomes. I wonder how many homes some of these politicians own.
Gillian Keegan, married to the former Fujitsu boss, has four houses.
The big banks are increasingly building huge property portfolios... after WE bailed them out
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Lloyds Bank are now the UK's biggest landlord.
@@stephfoxwell4620 Yep. And the British taxpayer has literally funded them to do it
The problem in the uk is low wages relative to costs of living, a benefit system that distorts natural market forces and the difficulty of building a property by the average joe. In my country you buy a piece of land and build a house, and you do it gradually depending on finances. This year you build the foundations, next year the walls, next year the roof and doors etc.. the result is we have half the population of the uk and more new homes every year then the uk.
It happens when too many secret sponsors and members of the leading party dip their fat fingers in property market🤷. It's in their favour for the market not to be regulated and controlled properly in favour of hard working, tax paying people. On the other hand the family of million affairs don't want to part with their beloved land to allow Joe to build his house on it. All about satisfying the dodgy elites and keeping them rich.
Would your home country be Poland?
@@gedofgont1006Do you imply that this dump the UK is any better than Poland?
Ha, did he even mention immigration. Net migration was 745,000 in 2022, 672,000. in 2023. There is no way you are going to build enough housing to cope with this with the best will in the world. To put that in perspective, the population of Coventry is 345,324. It is also an environmental catastrophy.
He works at Oxford. He'd lose his job if he mentioned the Elephant in the room
Immigration (the import of skilled workers) is generally a good thing for the economy. The birth rate in our natural population is falling (and projected to collapse fairly catastrophically). Without an influx of young people, our economy will tank. We either lock down the borders, collectively get older, scrimp and save and slowly wither away, or we encourage young people to spend their energy building our economy. If you ever want to retire, welcome these young skilled workers with open arms.
''Skilled young workers''. The problem is , they are NOT ''skilled young workers''. A huge proportion are family members refugees and students. The UK spent 23 billion on housing benefit (2022). Relying on immigration to prop up the economy is a ponzy scheme. @@ponderwonder
@@ponderwonder That's nonsense. The millions brought in are a very bad fit culturally. Costing us £billions.
While i agree you simplt ignored his entire comment and the issue mentioned, 700,000 homes are not being built A YEAR, not even 10% of that.@@ponderwonder
Thank you. I thought that was really well put together. 👍👍👍
No way I'm moving out of my parents' any time soon. I'm 27 and earning more than I ever have done, and yet rent prices are a major turn off. Whilst living with my parents and paying far far less in rent, I'll save and invest a tonne of money instead.
Wise move but don't get left behind, you need to buy property sooner or later. Invest in s&p500 index funds, then when you can afford to, buy a doer upper, do it up and sell at a profit for tax free gains. Repeat and start to acquire a BTL property portfolio. It's a tried and tested method of acquiring wealth. Good luck.
@@ridethelakes I'll buy as soon as I'm viably able to, but right now I have basically zero savings as I've wasted my 20s up until this point. And I'm not earning crazy money now, only £40k per year, but it's certainly enough to start being smarter with my money. Soon as I get my first paycheck I'll be opening a stocks and shares ISA and yeah, s&p 500. My plan is to max out my LISA first, then put what I can into stocks and shares ISA. I also need to work out how much of a pension contribution I can make, as my company will match up to 10%.
@@ridethelakes harder to become a BTL owner now, stamp duty is a killer!
@@MikePhillips-pl6ov Yes true and other new taxes legislation, but the power of leverage means it's still one of the best ways to make money.
@@ridethelakescan’t agree with you more
Thank you. We seriously don’t need to build more houses, we simply need to transform empty offices & empty retail units into affordable housing. Monsterous Evil & Greed is killing us. 2024 is a time for change
and reallocate existing housing through financial incentives - there are an estimated 25 million empty bedrooms in UK homes. And 10,000 long term empty ministry of defence homes costing tax payer £25million a year to maintain. Add all those unconverted loft spaces, commercial buildings, defunct retail units etc.
I have met a number of older people who complain how their kids cannot afford to buy their own house and at the same time they do everything they can to stop development nearby who would take up a green patch they like to look at through their window. Planning is crazy restrictive in this country.
Bought our first home in 1988. The monthly payments took up 58% of our joint net pay. We had a mattress doubling as bed and sofa, no TV, no washing machine, no curtains just bin liners taped up. My grandma's 25 year old fridge, no holiday for three years. It has always been difficult to buy a house.
Think it's called "nimbyism", "Not in My Back Yard". People also want free health care but are reluctant to pay tax. Just part of human make up.
@stephfoxwell4620 We bought then, when in fact prices were the lowest vs wages in 20 years after the massive recession of the 90s. Prices vs wages has increased ever since. We could not buy today doing the same jobs we did then. The price factor vs wages and interest rates is circa 2.5x what we paid then.
@@stephanguitar9778 1988 was before the 1990s recession,not after it. The Cost of buying over 25 years on a 85% mortgage compared to average income was 7.9 times in 1990, 8.2 times in 2005 and is currently 8.7 times and falling. It is relatively 9% dearer now,but reverting to mean.
Building masses of overpriced houses wont help the situation
This is an excellent summary for anyone trying to understand the underlying causes of the current housing issues we face in the UK. One angle I had not considered before is the looming cost to the Gov't of retired people needing to claim housing benefit as the ave rental cost of £1k/month is more than the whole of the state pension. It's clearly critical to build more houses, but to do that, wholesale reform of the planning system will be needed.
THANKS FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND CONTENT.
I saw a documentary on who owns the land in England. The majority is owned by the aristocracy and corporations. A significant percentage of the population lives in corridors between large estates. Let’s guess who’s providing the financial and political support for NIMBY campaigns.
They own 92% we have to make do with the remaining 8%
I remember a few months ago you decry the house price collapse.
Excellent research, well done!
Surely supply and demand is a big driver in this equation. In other places around the world, take Spain for instance, many more people live in high density accommodation/flats in city centres. We now have a situation in the UK where many city centre are run down with shops closed and boarded up due to internet shopping, etc, so we have a unique opportunity to both improve the quality and quality of living within city centres and solve this housing and housing affordability problem, with decent inner city high density housing, it just takes smart councils with foresight and political will.
How can you have an economics channel with a video about the housing market that fails to mention even once the debacement of the currency by the central bank through quantitive easing ( money printing) resulting in the increase in asset prices in line with the increase in money supply. ...This video is ladybird book economics that apparently looks at all the factors affecting housing prices but doesnt even mention the number one economic issue of our time!
Anyone with any understanding of economics would know QE did not debase the currency but it did inject cheap capital into the system, much of which has gone into bricks and mortar. So you are right it has made things worse but it is not a principal cause of the lack of affordability. I used to teach housing development and l was saying the same things presented here 25 years ago. There are many causes but the principal ones imo are political. As mentioned here, we do not tax wealth as we do income and those comfortably housed are usually completely opposed to anything new being built. Where l live is a perfect example. It’s a village of about 700 houses outside Chester, not especially beautiful or historic. Nothing has been built here since the mid 80s and the merest suggestion that anything should makes people very angry indeed. And no wonder. The house l bought in 2010 for £225k is now worth £100k more. That is pure profit without me doing anything at all.
You say your house value has gone up. I say the value of the currency you're pricing it in has gone down and that you're not actually in profit at all. Just deluded.
@@guy35451 agreed
Yes, and no mention of population growth through mass immigration either.
Or mass immigration
0.5% of the UK population owns half of the lands due to being aristocracy and hand me downs. UK need to address this inequality to solve the issue of land for new apartments. Just tax land ownership to the roof.
We need to do like the French.
why ? You can't buy a house like your parents did. Things change
What, let in four million Algerians?
That’s only half of it. The granting of planning permission is like winning the lottery. It turns agricultural land into building land with a massive gain in value. The problem is that it is the same people winning this lottery every time! Landowners. Look at the value difference in the land prices in your area. Work out the% of a new house build taken by the land cost. I propose that each person in the country is only allowed to gain planning permission once, for one home. The government should start to compulsory purchase blocks of land( at fair agricultural land prices),divide them into plots and sell to people who want to build their own homes. With a bit of research, ingenuity and hard work you could actually build one yourself and family for a surprisingly small sum £.
@@stephfoxwell4620your comments are almost all race baits. Stop looking sideways and look up, maybe you’ll notice your strings.
I'd never seen a video that summarises the housing crisis so succinctly. Thanks for this!
With no mention of the effects of immigration 🫡
I've never seen a video that skirts around the real actual problem of over population...you guys are nuts.
All I know is that here in Leeds there has been non stop building of high rise flats, quite often aimed at students - but no social housing at all. We've also got some massive older buildings with not much going on inside. And of course, businesses on the high street going bust and moving out of the premises which are left fallow..
Frankly, this is how i would fix Residential housing. Restrict the ownership of domestic housing to one per citizen. If you are married, then you can own two, as both can share the entitlement. This would encourage marriage, Bringing an uptick in the birth rates of the country. But mainly, it would kick out investors who buy up properties just to use them as an investment vehicle. Whether that's just to park it like a gold bar, Or extract wealth from citizens In the rental market. It would free up a lot of properties for people to actually own. Scrap the concept of leasehold on residential properties. The idea that you "buy" a house but not own the land, to then have anything in the folio then become the property of the landowner after a period of time, is just fancy legal theft of wealth. At the very least, If they want the land back, they must buy the property on the land at fair market price, rather than it automatically reverting back to there ownership. It can still however be permitted for commercial Properties. Anyone who wants to live in a housing Association arrangement, as they feel they add value to the area. There must be the ability for residents to vote to dissolve the association. If the organization in charge of the land fails to do adequate upkeep, The devolution of the Association Makes every property on the parcel freehold, There authority is revoked and the Council is forced to adopt it. This harsh Punishment Puts a fire under The governing organization to actually spend the money beneficially to provide value to residents, and not just use it as a cash funnel so the owner of the building company can buy a new yacht. You find this common with new builds where you have to pay them a fee every year for the privilege Of living in one of their houses, Even when you've bought one outright. However, they do not seem to give back as much as you pay, Building on the greenery the fees meant to upkeep, and then upping the price, even though their maintenance costs just dropped. The banking industry should also be given a slap. They should not be any fees for making early repayments to your mortgage, And any early payments must go on to the principal automatically. If someone wishes and has the means to do so, they should be able to pay off the mortgage as early as possible and reduce the interest payments. Arrangements that force you to pay the bank more money for being financially responsible are just there to line the pockets of the bankers. Finally, House building should become permitted development. This is already done with vital infrastructure such as road building and telecom works, and it's time that we recognize that house building is essential infrastructure that does not need council busy bodys and NIMBY's interfering. Yes, they must follow building regulation. However The rejection of new house building because of drop in house values needs to be rejected outright. A house is a home, not an investment. Buy gold bars if you want line go up, Not a house. Buying gold does not deprive others. All of this Should be a push to turn housing back into a commodity, Not a gold bar that also allows you to live in it. On a tangent, which is also related. Care costs... They are rising to levels that frankly just makes the care industry look like They are plundering wealth, And leaching off the old and vulnerable. My nan ran up a cost of 98000 for 4 years in Care... I have no idea how they even get to that figure. How does it cost 32K a year for one resident, when the cost is spread across multiple residents? The council then expect to take the property to pay for the care, Leaving little wealth, or even just a house to live in, to pass down to their grandchildren. All caring must come back under government control. It should not be a for profit enterprise with guaranteed revenues. Whenever government money is guaranteed In private enterprise, costs always explode as the companies receiving the money Just start riding the free cash gravy train. Whether it is fair for someone to pay for their own care, or whether it should be classed as a health issue Is an argument that needs to be had. But one thing is for sure, It should not be an exploitative generational wealth extraction racket.
Leasehold is because you cannot get a mortgage for a freehold flat; hence the 999 year leases. Increasing the birth rate will put more pressure on current housing stock.
@@antinatalist9995 Birth rate pressure can be relieved over time, Hence making housing permitted development. Developers don't need to worry about the expensive process of cozying up and greasing the wheels of local councils and NIMBY's, and there frankly frivolous Requirements to allow the project to go ahead. If the housing plans are good and don't look completely terrible, Let it be built. By the time the new Newborns are able to buy, the availability of new housing should be able to keep up. As for the Immediate problem, the sudden flood of housing on the market with the one per citizen rule, as well as kicking out foreign investors, Would significantly lower the housing pressures very quickly. Floods of housing will exit the rental market and enter Into the housing stock for purchase. Rental would not be completely dead, as Married couples will still be able to own two houses. However, given the rent seeking attitude that tends to permeate the market, It would be best to bring rentals only within the legal domain of local authorities, Or private enterprise is willing to play ball with heavy regulation that makes sure it is Overall, a beneficial community project. We already do this with lotteries For the simple reason that it is just a money Hoover for the private entity operating it, except for very few circumstances such as for charity, and the National Lottery operated by Camelot. They are allowed due to their generous grant/fund programs that make it an overall good, and not just a money vacuum. You do make a good point however that i did overlook. That is with flats. Leasehold are somewhat required with this, as there needs to be some form of way to create an obligation to pay for general works to maintaining the entire structure, Not just the box that you own. The building/land would need to be owned by a separate entity to the flats themselves in order to do this. I guess it could be justified to allow privet residential leasehold in these scenarios, given the density of housing that is created With these types of projects. You can own the flat, But still need to pay the building operators a fee For the upkeep of the building as a hole. But the amount they ask for would come under regulation preventing rent seeking, and must reflect the costs of maintenance with Reasonable profit margin. No hiring a construction firm owned by the same operator or a family member/friend. it must reflect a fair market price and maintenance contracts must go through a open procurement process.
@@antinatalist9995 I think your first point is incorrect. I recently purchased the freehold of my flat through a process known as collective enfranchisement, which involved cooperating and cost sharing with the owner of the other flat in the building. It wasn't cheap, but anyone can do it, as long as you have any other leaseholders onside - hence the term collective enfranchisement. The existing freeholder cannot, legally, decline to sell it. There are no implications for the future mortgagability of the property. Why would there be? The property offers just as much security to a lender on a freehold basis as it does on a leasehold, perhaps greater.
"The UK has not been building houses to keep up with the rise in the population" In other words, supply is not keeping up with demand. The fertility rate in the UK is about 1.6 children per woman, which is much lower than the "replacement rate" of about 2.1. One might expect the population to be falling, but it isn't, the population is rising: there has been an increase of about 9 million since 2000. Why is the population increasing?
Immigration.
THIS. This is THE question !
Not only. Data confirms UK has more dwellings/m2 per capita, in every region than ever.
Britain has more bedrooms than people.
The fuck does that even mean, elaborate@@BenJamin-rt7ui
Very interesting, Thank you!!
I really appreciate your concise analysis.
oh look at that, the house prices spiral in line with immigration. Who would have thought that. supply and demand would be a factor..
Everyone knows it, few have the guts to say it 👏
Tories point at immigration Tories increase immigration Tories take away rights from everyone Tories laugh all the way to the bank
@@jack504 Tories and labour are exactly the same now, i honestly can not think of even one conservative policy in the last few years. they have all been labour polices. and look at the state we are in.
So your saying we need more immigration?
We need to be build more council houses. Just building more houses won’t make a blind bit of difference to house prices. Making council houses that are well built and spacious available at a reasonable rent will provide competition for private overpriced rental rates. This will bring rent down and bringing rent down will provide a competition to mortgages again forcing house prices down. Just building more houses isn’t what people object to, it’s building a ton of houses in the south east and not building more roads and facilities to go with it. We should be building more up north, stuffing people in to more dense housing in cities is an idiotic idea.
With the rise of interest rates driving up mortgage payments, landlords relying on tenants to cover mortgage payments have had to increase rents to match, or sell up. Negative equity is also compounding this issue as the majority of existing mortgages are still based on house prices prior to their sudden fall in recent months. This in turn is further compounding the rental market crisis, as it means there are even fewer places to rent, never mind at anything resembling an affordable level, especially for people whose income is significantly less than the median for their areas. This would result in a further drastic fall in living standards and conditions for such people, as over 100,000 families already stuck in temporary accommodation, along with many more low income households and individuals, already at breaking point with sharply rising rents and ever lower availability, can readily testify too. With wages and halfway-decent job opportunities nearer the entry level of the job market completely inadequate in the face of such demand, this is not going to end well.
Financial planning is like navigation. If you know where you are and where you want to go, navigation isn't such a great problem. It's when you don't know the two points that it's difficult
True though unfortunately mine always end up with losses 😭
I'm 45, $800K net worth. Been saving 50% of my salary, investing in stocks & living below my means. My goal this year is to be more serious and consistent with my investments for long term. I want to invest more this year but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk. I'm worried with the numerous bank failures as of late, am I better off reinvesting my savings in the stock market or do I wait?
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only duo Its unclear which stocks and sectors will lead the market in the next uptrend. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory
I'm looking to give stocks another shot after staying on the sidelines since the pandemic, if you do not mind, could you explain a little bit how you're getting guidance and how can I contact the advisor?
Exactly what I'm doing again this week. The smartest thing I've ever done was having 30% in cash to buy on the way down in 2021. It hurt watching 30-40% discounts drop to 50, but grabbing Google, NVDIA, Apple, and others near the bottom has paid off
Thanks for sharing. searched for her full name and her website popped up, I set up a call with her
…and what if you get diagnosed with a life limiting nasty disease. All that scrimping and scraping and living like a monk, would have been for fuck all. Not saying you shouldn’t save but your balance is all out of calibration.
Yes good stuff, agree with all. Ex B&B branch manager here, when B&B imploded my share save scheme which 20% of my salary was paid into went from over £450K to zero, lost job, lost company car, lost staff mortgage, was not a happy time.
Interested to hear your take on the newest widespread rich class - those inheriting even modest houses can easily become half millionaires or even multimillionaires overnight and tax free without prior experience of handling such wealth.
Sorry to hear about your bad fortune. Won’t make you feel any better but it seems like a case of all eggs in one basket.
..- so sorry to hear this. Brutal outcome for you. My prayers are with you sir
So you were responsible for dodgy mortgage application acceptence like 125% mortgages on self certification?
Here in Vietnam a girlfriend owns a small apartment in London. She laughs it's so small you can't put a fridge in the kitchen. She gets more than 500 pound a week rent and lives like a princess in Vietnam...?
And she is part of the reason why housing in unaffordable here. Foreign investors
Great video.
What an absolute mess! These politicians elected and take a very very healthy salary and expenses off our backs to make this mess. Deeply concerning.
Worth adding on the financialisation of housing, total Uk housing valued at £8.98 trillion, outstanding mortgages (FCA data) £1.65trillion. 18% loan to value.
Is that good or bad? What does it actually mean?
1997 comes up on a chart that describes woe to middle and working classes yet again.
This will never change…the people who need to will never take the loss
You could argue it’s reverting to what is was up to the 70’s (I was brought up in a council house) The only issue is that cheaper social housing is pretty much impossible for most people so it’s private rents for these people with its associated costs The associated wealth effect (new cars big holidays etc) which was funded by home equity (or the perceived cushion it provided) is going to go too Big reductions in living standards is on the cards for most of the population
Until 1973 half of homes were rented.
People cant even get council housing anymore with 10 year wait times as NONE are being built
Once upon a time I could only borrow 3x my wage and 1x my partners, if this simple rule had been kept then we’d be in a much better position. Or is it that our lords and masters prefer us to in debt forever?
Makes you wonder if there is something like this going on with the seeming madness?
Banks make there money on lending YOUR money back out ,it's banks greed that caused 2008 crash gambling YOUR money on stock exchange thats why they changed that law so they can't gamble savings account money and also stress tests on mortgages so they would have to show responsibility for the lending ,it wasn't the everyday person that caused the crash just greed driven bankers and now joined by energy companies whose 900%profit in uk is plain and simple war profiteering since uk government said in house of commons December 2022 and I quote "Putin is using energy as a weapon"!!
agreed....the greedy banks over lent, and that allowed house prices to increase, and that allows the mortgage lender to feel more comfortable. House inflation is the friend of Lenders...
@@rivergladesgardenrailroad8834 Lenders and also my parents generation. Who bought up all the housing stock for a pittance and are now happy to sell for ridiculously inflated prices. Totally destroying their children's ability to get a home themselves!
You say it in one.
Another thing that worries me is the amount of boomers that are so happily unaware how tough it is to rent privately let alone buy a house these days. Many of us don’t have an inheritance or the bank of mum and dad to fall back on. When the population of the UK starts to dwindle because people have less or no kids because of this very issue, and we have to rely on immigration to replenish our workforce maybe then they’ll wake up and so will the government.
Problem is the political class only care about themselves. They know where we are heading. But they will be fine, they are only there to make their money and pass the hot potato. All the migrants are happy to live in shared housing with a worser living standard than we are used to. This = more wealth to the political/1% class.
You can build all the houses you like but at £300.000 pounds for affordable housing who can afford this it all boils down to greed I hope the bubble will bust as every human and animal on earth needs a home 🏡
Leasehold law reform would enable hundreds of thousands of homes to be mortgaged again… Plus uncontrolled immigration only makes the situation worse.
People should be very careful about the neighborhood where they live. If you lock that in, you be unhappy with you location in the unrest that is coming. The state will not protect you.
Unless more houses are constructed, or 3 and 4 bed room apartments for family are build prices will never come down. Seems some are deliberately keeping prices high. Why is demand not being supplied for lower income groups.
the chart at 11:20 says it all Councils don't build and it has all been left to the market to build housing infrastructure.
About the income and cost of living. I'm a polish programmer for over 20 years, I used to work 2001-2006 in Germany (the earnings were up to x8 times than in Poland) 2012-2015 in France (it was 2-3x more). Right now I work in Poland and have no intention to move anywhere. In Germany as a programmer I would earn less when taking into account the cost of living. The same in France. In both of those countries I could not afford a home (which I'm buying this year in Cracow).
I am 36 years old senior developer from germany with russian background. So I understand polish and also have good englisch skills. Would you recommend me to move to Poland? Actually polish culture for me is similar to russian. Think i would really like it
Probably because theres a shortage of labour in poland as everyone seems to migrate to western europe forcing real wages in those countries lower
A crucial point. It is the relation between wages and the cost of living that is important. The ideal is to have a well paid job in a cheap location as opposed to a menial job in somewhere like London or New York.
@@Artur-gn7ym haha no. The pole OP most likely hates Russians. He wont be advising you move to poland. 😂
@@Artur-gn7ymHi Artur, I am Polish. Someone from above mentioned that we may not like russians now. I would say every polish guy would prefer to have russian migrant over muslim ;). You would easily find common language with us as I had with russian folks in past.
Main reason - importation of millions of foreigners. It will only get worse - for a number of reasons wealth has concentrated whilst the economy stumbles. Migration has not helped productivity and communities and towns have crumbled. The country cannot afford to build infrastructure and the young are demoralised as rents/mortgages are getting unaffordable while council tax etc will keep going up. Broken Britain indeed.
The country with the most home owners is Romania. The country with the least home owners is Switzerland. Having a large rental population increases not only labour mobility but also encourages strong competition between cities. Thus every city has a financial incentive to improve itself, instead of merely a political one. Home owners tend to stifle any developments, lest it devalue their property, which can also lead to stifling the economy.
It seems logical that house building slows down , especially considering how small the UK is . What needs to happen most of all is the regeneration of nearly all town centres . It is so evident now more homes are rented or run by housing association companies when you see how run down communities are.
Excellent analysis, i would also add one of the biggest mistakes was Gordon Brown giving control of interest rates to the Bank of England, before then chancellors had been able to increase interest rates to slow down house price booms as happened in the early 90's. Once the BoE had control of interest rates they could "not" include house prices in their shopping basket of goods to set interest rates, from 1997 onwards (combined with easy credit) house prices surged until the crash of 2008..
Interested to hear your take on the newest widespread rich class - those inheriting even modest houses can easily become half millionaires or even multimillionaires overnight and tax free without prior experience of handling such wealth.
and those with supportive parents who let them live with them rent free whilst working full time, to save for a deposit. Social mobility cannot always be gained by taking on uni debt followed by securing a graduate job; it seems to depend on parents. Wins the middle class vote, I guess. Sadly, there's no 100% mortgages now.
There is massive house building in London. Supply is increasing, Brexit is causing a fall in European migrants, buy-to-let is over for the foreseeable future, sterling is destroyed by Cameron and Truss so foreign investors are pulling out. Property prices will surely fall. They fell 83% in the 1930s. I do own a house in London but I want prices to fall for young people. A young professional couple, with a combined income of £150k, University debts, minimal deposit, might just afford a small family 3-bed flat for £600k. It isn’t sustainable.
There's also a council policy of caring for the elderly in their own homes as this apparently is inexplicably cheaper than operating a care home or small apartments with care on call. This is keeping a lot houses off the market.
The plebs will rent from the wealthy/investors.
should someone owe the plebs as you call them a home ?
I have a 1-bed flat in London which is now worth approx. all of my inheritance tax allowance. This means I have a 40% inheritance tax liability on my life savings. It is a bummer, but things could be worse. I am intending to leave the excess to charities rather than let the government have any of it.
Charities pay VAT when they spend.
How come nobody mentions the brilliant cohousing model like they have in Denmark or LILAC in Leeds?
Your analysis in this and others that you have posted is excellent.. thank you . We need to resolve the in balance we have .. owning a house should not be a goal … , enabling people to raise a family in a secure home rented in the private sector or preferably in the public sector should be an aim and then at if they to chose to buy a house by saving .. that is a life choice as it was before Thatcher … read that comment as you wish .. selling housing … but not building new ones with the receipts … that is the start of our current problem. We have a society which is based on wealth due to the housing market values .. it cannot be right that Doctors cannot have the choice between renting a house and house buying that we had in the 80’s .. Our society has a real problem based on respective wealth due to house inflation .. ( have I done well ..NO all you have done is benefitted by house inflation relative to income ) . I rent , I have owned several houses not at the same time , I have been a landlord … I got divorced .. I lost loads … that is life .. all I ask is to be able to feel secure in my rented home …as do families…
There will never be enough new homes built because the housing market is so commoditised. Controlled scarcity can keep pushing prices ever upward so supply will never ever meet demand.
We keep hearing this all the time,, but whats fuelling demands? Isn't the low interest rates? So no more cheap money in the market therefore the ever demands you are talking about will be lessssssssss
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
I agree, It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
There are massive areas of the UK covered in bungalows and 2-story detached and semi-detached houses. If the planning system simply allowed the free market to work, making it feasible to redevelop these areas into 4 or 5-story Georgian-style terraces, the "housing shortage" would soon be solved and property prices would fall back to sane levels.
As a bricklayer in London in 1975, I realised I would never be able to afford get onto the housing ladder, so emigrated the next year. Best move I ever made
so u left one of the worlds most exciting cities to live in a suburb in aus?
Just put high taxes on any secondary house and they will force to sell. Put a cap of less than 20% minimum salary on one bedroom flats 30% on two bedroom flats and issue is solved.
I can’t think what caused this huge demand in housing……
Not a single mention…
Woke society, can't speak our minds these days.... I don't care what the statistics say, my three lads are all home owners, with modest jobs, by working, saving, choosing a good partner, and buying homes that required renovation. Just as I did in the 80s It's no different now..... but the demand is greater as the population explodes. Supply and demand... as old as time... and the reason behind the lack of homes that people are facing. No one can say the reason why the supply is restricted. Not out loud, at least.
The mass creation of money has inflated asset prices. Neoliberal economic model is based on debt financed government and concentration of wealth in corporate and wealthy hands.
Another £3 trillion since 2010. $ 25 trillion in the USA.
The great wave by David hatchet fischer is a good book to read that discusses this. It's all happened before... Kind of.
Great channel.The hope that high interest rates will cause a significant fall in house prices flounders on two grounds.Firstly, higher interest rates, even if they do cause a fall in house prices, mean that both the cost of a mortgage and the affordability criteria are harder to meet by prospective buyers and secondly the increase in house prices are an extremely accurate indicator of the true rate of inflation-so even if house prices do fall in response to higher interest rates designed to dampen inflation-this correction will be short term and in the medium to long term house prices will always rise to fully reflect what people believe they are worth.Houses will always be the best hedge against inflation-its been the case for at least 400 years.
I can only assume you're talking about the 400 years before 2009 ..because since then real estate most definitely hasn't been the best performing inflation adjusted investment. Relative to the BOE balance sheet it's gone nowhere.
Houses always cost roughly 8 times income. How it is shared between capital interest and fees depends on the interest rate. Higher mortgages mean lower face values, but that is only relevant to cash buyers.
I agree. I recently took my money out the stock market which had been flat lining for the last decade and bought another property. I’m banking on this being a safer bet over the next 40 years in an increasingly volatile world
@@blehoo1 FTSE hit 7,000 in 1999. Now it is 7600. Not even up 10%.
@blehoo1 the benefits of investing in property are not only do they tend to appreciate in value they are also a source of income in their own right through rental. The only way you will prevent people with money investing in housing is if you make laws to prevent owning multiple houses. I personally would be in favour of this despite being a landlord myself. People with hundreds of rental properties should be forced to sell or be jailed. Harsh rule but fair 😅 never met a poor landlord (at least not one that has more than 2 extra properties)
How many of these home owners have interest-only mortgages? Because this form of loan is nothing other than renting your house from the bank. I wonder how many London mortgages are interest-only and the impact on these on house price rises? I live in London and I do not know anyone in my circle of quite well-off friends, whose mortgage is not interest-only, Pure madness.
Yes, but with low interest rates, you are renting your house from the bank for practically nothing. You are living rent free and taking the the rise in the property value.
You can't get an interest only mortgage unless you meet their strict criteria which also means having a repayment vehicle in place. I have a very low LTV and high income multiple but couldn't get one. They are relatively few now in the market.
Nonsense. Since 1961 house prices have doubled seven times. Roughly every nine years. Currently doubling every 15 years. So buy a £250,000 house on a thirty year mortgage it will be £1 million at the end. The mortgage will less than 23% ltv.
@@jedg4746 I get that, but interest-only has only one objective and it's to speculate. It's never going to be a home where you are going to grow old. Let's face it, people who take interest-only mortgages take it because they can't afford a real mortgage, so they're never going to save the borrowed capital. You never own your house, you pay for what you hope will be an appreciating asset. that you will have to sell. A house that you will never gorw older in. In 20 years you sell it, you've doubled our money. And then what happens? What do you buy after you have paid the bank what you owe? Because it's not just your house that will have increased in value, it's everybody else's. Your only option is to downsize and start from scratch in a new home. More renovations, more debt, etc, etc. I will be moving to souther Europe soon where in mist cases a house is a home, not a speculative investment. I cannot wait.
@@jedg4746 The keyword here is "with low interest rates".
Plenty of affordable homes in the North East and also in West Cumbria. With so many insistent with working from home, these are real options now. Why do so many believe they HAVE to live in London especially if you are unemployed and are unlikely to be active in looking for work yet still expect to be housed in such an astronomically priced city? Housing will never be mid 90s prices again when you could barely give houses away with many being on the market for 3+ years with no interest. I certainly don't blame the boomer generation for buying investment houses back then. There were 1000s of them for 20k or less. Easy credit has done more damage than boomers ever have with people borrowing beyond their means thus pushing prices higher and higher along with generation flipper skimming over old walls, painting it all grey and putting in a 2k kitchen and bathroom and "Pretending" its renovated when in reality it is cheaply tarted up. Sadly a costly mistake for the new owner having to rewire and re-plumb 3 years later on an overvalued makeover which is 10s of thousands more than its really worth. In the 60s, 70s and 80s multi generations had to share rented homes as so many were unmodernised and not fit to live in. Many of those pulled down now but the Victorian wealth wasn't there to replace them and sadly what was replaced was often of poor quality with quite a few of those demolished within 25 years of being built.
Good video, what’s going on with your shirt collar !
I agreed with you up to the point where you said where houses are needed. You have huge potential through the country to build houses and create a more even economy in Britain. Scotland is under developed, the North East of England is as well. Making the whole country more even in terms of opportunity will help the housing crisis but not solve it.
Don't worry, "Levelling Up" is the government's number 1 priority....🤥
flats not houses mixed-use 15 minutes cities but it's not going to happen :/
Doesn't 15 minute cities mean ppl aren't allowed to leave specific places without a permit ?
@@orangesnowflake3769it doesn’t It means something like Tokyo or amestardam
@@Adi-bo5do ah okay
Living in the NE makes it a lot easier 180-250k gets a 3-4 bed detached in a nice area with garden,garage etc.
A very high level view. Simply saying supply doesn't meat demand isn't giving the whole picture. Overall economic development of uk is abysmal.
Housing benefits suit the Tories. Public money straight into private pockets
To say the house price is robust depends on the metric measuring the change. Compared to gold, the av. house is falling year on year, has done for over 20yrs. Compared to BTC, a house is a disastrous investment. It just depends on the reference. Don't invest in houses, top tip.
Your take on the market seems fair and accurate. I personally like Gary Stevenson’s take on the super wealthy partaking in a wealth grab since covid, compounding things further. With this understanding I believe house prices and assets in general may see a sharp rise in the next two to three years. Asset classes being the preserve of the super rich, creating even more wealth inequality.
3:27 *interest-only mortgages (not income-only)