The Hidden Reason Ukraine Is Optimistic about Crimea
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Retaking Crimea has long been the goal for Ukraine. But why does Ukraine seem optimistic about its chances? The way that Russia has fought the war so far suggests that its position in Crimea is weaker than it might seem.
0:00 The Crimean Crisis
2:28 The Sevastopol Naval Base
5:02 Crimea's Demographic Challenges
9:13 Ukraine's Optimism
10:00 NATO Expansion as a Cause of War?
13:04 Separatist Regions as a Cause of War?
14:50 A Crimean Disaster?
19:21 Ukraine's Upcoming Tactics
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As a guy who grew up in a small industrial town in Crimea region and who is currently living in Odesa, Ukraine, I wanted to add some details from the first person perspective. The annexation wasn't a thing that people of Crimea accepted voluntarily. Before the war we had a political party which was promoting the idea of voluntary joining with russia, and it had only 3% of the voters' support in the years prior to annexation. The whole referendum was a bullshit, where you saw a lot of armed russian troopers on your streets, absolutely no agitation against the referendum (cause all of the Ukrainian tv and radio channels were cut off by russians). You cannot possibly say that it's a thing that the Crimeans were supporting. And not even 50-55% like you said. It was a military takeover and nothing more. And in the interview with Igor Girkin (you may know him as a guy who was declared guilty for the Boeing accident in the separatist regions by the Hague court recently) said himself that he had to force the deputies to sign the petition to transfer the region under russia's jurisdiction. The same happened with the separatist regions and Girkin is one of the people who was sent to Donetsk region from russia to take over the governmental buildings and form up a guerilla, when the people who were living there had no such thing in mind. It's totally ok that we have some cultural differences in our country, that is common for almost every country in the world, but it never came to total hostility between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians. Please don't let the russian propaganda make you think that the people of Crimea wanted to be with russia. That's a lie and a casus belli for doing anything they want in the region.
yeah i think the news coverage from liberated cities and villages shows pretty clearly how ethnicity matters very little for Putin's support among Ukrainians
Instead let’s just follow Ukrainian propaganda then! Just because you personally didn’t supported it doesn’t mean others didn’t Crimea remembers Ukrainian blockades and Crimea made a decision to join back home, people like you are the minority
Haha what a joker you are. I bet you speak pure Galician at home.
Post-referendum polls The results of a survey by the U.S. government Broadcasting Board of Governors agency, conducted April 21-29, 2014, showed that 83% of Crimeans felt that the results of the March 16 referendum on Crimea's status likely reflected the views of most people there, whereas this view is shared only by 30% in the rest of Ukraine.[153] According to the Gallup's survey performed on April 21-27, 82.8% of Crimean people consider the referendum results reflecting most Crimeans' views,[154] and 73.9% of Crimeans say Crimea's becoming part of Russia will make life better for themselves and their families, while 5.5% disagree.[154] According to survey carried out by Pew Research Center in April 2014, the majority of Crimean residents say they believed the referendum was free and fair (91%) and that the government in Kyiv ought to recognize the results of the vote (88%).[155] According to a poll of the Crimeans by the Ukrainian branch of Germany's biggest market research organization, GfK, on January 16-22, 2015: "Eighty-two percent of those polled said they fully supported Crimea's inclusion in Russia, and another 11 percent expressed partial support. Only 4 percent spoke out against it. ... Fifty-one percent reported their well-being had improved in the past year."[156] Bloomberg's Leonid Bershidsky noted that "The calls were made on Jan. 16-22 to people living in towns with a population of 20,000 or more, which probably led to the peninsula's native population, the Tatars, being underrepresented because many of them live in small villages. On the other hand, no calls were placed in Sevastopol, the most pro-Russian city in Crimea. Even with these limitations, it was the most representative independent poll taken on the peninsula since its annexation." Should i say anthing more ?
I feel like many of us, however much we think we are aware of and immune to Russian disinformation, have swallowed some of it. Thank you for pointing this out for us
Finland and Sweden being "relatively stable" is like saying a perfect circle is "Relativity Round"
Also if NATO’s role is still an anti-Russian alliance Finland & Sweden provide a very threatening position to the Russians, and allows an easy threat to st.petersburg so that’s hard to ignore
@Andy indeed. Rather the opposite can be said, that America is about to fall apart in yet another civil war... relatively to Sweden and Finland.
If Finland and Sweden are considered 'relatively stable' then the USA is -by all means- a banana republic. And after january 6, that's even an understatement...
Yeah, it would probobly be hard to find a more stable countery on our earth.
I dunno, man. I live in Sweden and we've had more Riots and deadly violence than ever, even beating the peak violence of the Nineties.
In my circles we believed it was always about keeping the naval base in Crimea and later connecting it to Russia. Your video demonstrates this very well, and I would suspect quite accurate.
This is my take too. And I don't Putin is going to bend. He is prepared to go all in for a naval base that really means nothing to my countries security. Bidens fixation on this also seems tainted to me as his son Hunter was under investigation by the Ukranians for fraud,Biden even bragged on camera about how he would withhold loans from the United States to Ukraine unless they dropped the criminal investigation of Hunter who had made millions of dollars working on a board of directors for an energy company over there.
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
@@alexuzun6314 Crimea is Ukraine!!!. Please dont say otherwise. The bit of land that Russia used to rent off Ukraine.
@@alexuzun6314 So, Russia said, "Hey, we stole Crimea fair and squarel." Really?
Great work William . This is probably the best explanation of the history leading up to this war.
Why it is best? How many other explanations you watched to compair?
@@gfan83 How do you know he hasn't?
@@gfan83 Theres a few but not many detailed explanations that are that indepth.
@@jesserawson898 And how do you know that I know? Did I say something about it?
But no mention of the fact that Ukraine has been a separate country for centuries and before the SU which Putin wants to "restore" and where that dream falls flat.
Whether or not the population believes that the more popular choice won in the so called referendum in 2014 is irrelevant. The “referendum” had two options, joining Russia or becoming an independent country. The Russians themselves admit that remaining with Ukraine was not an option on the ballot.
Nah crimea belongs to Russia
Ukraine should learn from best land thief’s uk usa and Australia and kick its local population out.
@@Myanmartiger921exactly anyone who wants to be russian should be sent to russia, and also have their head examined for wanting to be russian.
@@Myanmartiger921 BUT WHAT ABOUT--
Wait so you literlay said that the peoples opinion is irrelevant. We are democratic when it suits us but when it doesnt we begin to do mental gymnastics and offer excuses. Bro there were polls done by western medias, western journalist including liberal trash like Vice have all made covereges of it and in all of them 99%of the people when asked always provided a pro russian answear. Besides lets not forget about the many other referendoms done in previous years which all avoided the question of joining russia they always were about more and more autonomy but strangly never ever gave the choice to join russia hmmm not very democratic dont you think ?
interesting analysis; i am very surprised that not more commentators have examined the significance of Sevastopol.
Military and geopolitical people have always appreciated its value. It has a great natural port that has been well enhanced...still, these days a substitute could be built.
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
@@alexuzun6314 the war could have been avoided had Putin decided to engage in diplomatic rapprochement, acknowledging the strategic importance of Crimea, and thus the need for friendly understanding and mutual benefit with their neighbours.
Thanks for the analysis. It sheds much light on this horrible war.
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
@@alexuzun6314 even crimea was part of Ukraine. Russia is just selfish or greedy
This analysis seems to forget that the first target of the war was Kyiv. They wanted to topple the government of the entire country, not just annex the southeast quarter to connect Crimea.
I think that was his reach goal. It makes sense that taking south and eastern Ukraine would be the bottom line given how hard they are fighting to keep them.
@@thomsen256 I mean, maybe. But at the outset it was clearly their main military effort. All their best units from VDV to the main guards tank units were pushing from the north or east, with the intent to roll into Kyiv like we rolled into Baghdad. They were destroyed, and the rest is history. The north fronts closed and the east front contracted, leaving the only defensible consolation prize, the land bridge to Crimea. I believe Putin wanted far more.
That too was my initial impression back in Feb. Putin takes over Kyiv, ousts Zalensky and possibly forcing Ukraine to sign off the entirety of the eastern side of the Donestk river. Toppling the current government too would have let him install a more Kremlin friendly government
@@matt9897 That was tactical. Take Kiev and the war is over. But we saw how quick they retreated when it didnt happen and threw everything into the southeast. It makes sense than that Crimea was always the main prize. I think Kiev was a reach goal.
No. It was not.
Hey William I wanted to thank you for providing a good look into the Ukrainian's situation for us. I've been watching you for a few months and I think you provide great insight into the situation.
WQestern bot
@@jeanpaulchristian3282
@@jeanpaulchristian3282 nazibotski
Yep, very insightful and well-reasoned analysis... Grazie! 'Fer sure Kyiv will try to interrupt the land bridge, if only to further thwart Russian supply lines. At which time it should become clear in what 'direction' their primary thrust will take. And agreed, the whole 'NATO made me do it' always did sound kinda 'dubious'.
@@jeanpaulchristian3282 Russian fascist bot
From what I have heard is that Crimean's at this point are on the edge. They were indeed supportive of the annexation but Moscow is simply not capable of providing what annexation took away. Businesses are crumbling, food is becoming scarce, economy is faltering, tourism is essentially non-existent compared to what it used to be, Crimean residents can only travel to Russia unless they are looking for a one-way ticket to flee and overall quality of life in the peninsula has essentially gone from a luxurious resort with a lot of things to do and places to see to borderline 3rd world status where everything sucks in just over a decade. There's also the problem that a lot of promises were made by the Russians, none of which have been kept, obviously. It's not like Moscow didn't try, they did and they did pour A LOT of money into Crimea. It simply isn't anywhere near comparable to what Crimea made by itself as a part of Ukraine and now they are entirely reliant on something that is inherently worse with no potential for improvement - hence the war and land bridge(which by itself was basically going all-in on a bluff).
lmao What a total BS.
First time I've heard these argument strung together so well. Thank you, excellent reasoning.
You should open a discussion with Denys Davydov, Ukrainian airline pilot born in Crimea and now a you tuber up to date on day-to-day events of the war.
Or with Jake Broe that also does a daily update on the situation in Ukraine and has interviewed several other KZhead personalities on his channel.
@@edwardblair4096 I suggested interviewing William Spaniel in a comment on one of Jake Broe's community posts a few weeks ago, and he did go to the trouble of hearting the comment, so I'm fairly confident Jake knows of William Spaniel at this point. I have no idea how easy or difficult it is for KZheadrs of their size to get in contact with each other. Now that I'm thinking about it again, maybe one or both of them think it wouldn't be such a great interview. I could see the interview degenerating into a fairly mediocre lesson on crisis bargaining or game theory as William tries to bring Jake's viewers up to speed, rather than a conversation where we get some unique insights or flesh out ideas in a conversational format. It almost seems like Jake might have to give a list of videos as 'homework' so there could be an interesting discussion, and that doesn't make much sense for KZhead.
@@lacklustermathie Jake often links an video by his interviewees as an introduction. William does a fairly good quick summary in his videos when game theory topics come up directly so either in the interview itself or the intro video should get most of Jake's viewers up to speed, if they are interested.
very good suggestion
Hi, Crimean here. I haven't been living in the peninsula since 2019 so I can't estimate the real mood of crimeans as of today but as far as I can tell, Russia made sure that pro-ukranian crimeans no longer live in Crimea and it also made sure to populate the peninsula with Russians. So, while I fancy the idea for Crimea to return home, It's a bit of an overstatement that todays Cimea population will support it, even if they have shitty life. What I think should happen is Russia should suffer a total loss on the battlefield, reinstall democratic institutions and peacefully return the peninsula back to Ukraine, while also return russians that moved to Crimea since 2014 back to Russia and pay them the expenses they took to relocate to Crimea and back to Russia
Russia will never take care of its citizens like you suggest
Good luck with your wish list :)
@@MsRuell You can compare the Russians living against Ukrainians.
@@arniciaurelian6767 Even if true, living standards is not what he's talking about. Try again... Or not.
Interesting point of yours w. the Immigration of mainland Russians into Crimea. That's what Turkey did w. North Cyprus, to make reunification nearly impossible.
Thanks for this analyst, this is the best explanation of things thus far!
Another superb analysis, clearly explained and supported. The best work I have found on the purposes of Russia’s seizure of Ukraine and the Western reaction to that.
Russian ability to use Sevastopol as a naval base has been reduced by Ukrainian developing and acquiring more advanced weapons. Russia’s transformation of Ukraine into a foe will end up with the remains of the Black Sea fleet acting a a diving attraction at the bottom of Sevastopol harbour.
Ukraine ought simply Himar & Destroy the Sebastopol Naval base thus eliminating the Russian interest - given they could not realistically rebuild it.
Comrade Robert - you are a simpleton!
@@SchrodingersPussyCat HIMARS doesn't have range to hit Sevastopol without ATACMS missiles.
@@Nethan2000 Ukraine will get glsdb 100miles/150km weapon from the US.
@@divumque Are you sure that they will get them?
The extension of the lease on crimean naval facilities beyond 2017, also known under the name "Kharkiv Pact", was a legal controversy in itself concerning the voting process and constitutional issues. I highly recommend to read up on this topic.
Anything that happened after 2014 is essentially moot by definition.
@@GeneralSamov It was done before the 2014
@@alohaal7125 What, the 2017 extension?
@@GeneralSamov yes. the extension was UP TO 2017. Not signed IN 2017
@@Daark_Karma You mean the Kharkiv pact extension from 2017 to 2042?
Good analysis of numbers. Thanks. I knew of it. Now it’s gathered on one spot. Your video.
Thanks for posting.
This land bridge idea goes back many years to analysis done by Stratfor which gave five possible scenarios. The land bridge was the most likely but would be subjected to partisan attacks due to the long lines of ground communication. We are seeing this today. So the idea put forth in the video of breaking the land bridge would fit nicely into Stratfor's evaluation.
This is the best explanation of the cause I have heard all these months. Thank you!
Look into all the oil and natural gas found off coast of Crimea in 2008. Putin stole billions in equipment from Exxonmobile and BP in 2014 when he took it.
@@Morristown337 Very true. But up until this video. All the reasons Putin was continuing this didn't make that much sense. Did he really care of those dombases?
@@FilmFactry He only cares to stay in power... without the system he built, he will no longer exist and sit in international court of justice alongside his accomplices who have been robbing russian citizens all these years....
@@FilmFactry he said in the video. "MEH"
@@FilmFactry Of course NOT, otherwise he would NOT be arming them with 1890 rifles and NO body armor and using them as cannon fodder!
Very thoughtful and astute. Thank you.
Great content! Thank you!
there is not one analyst on tv or elsewhere who is more lucid and accurate about the situation in Ukraine then you. Thank you for helping us to understand this conflict !
uh, perun?
It's likely the "Land bridge" idea for just taking Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in addition to Donetsk and Luhansk was a later revision to their original strategy: given they tried taking Kyiv plus Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, they likely initially thought they could just roll on and take over the entire country. When that failed, they tried for Novorussiya, with the four "Land bridge" Oblasts plus Kharkiv, while hoping they could also take over Myoklaiv and Odessa Oblasts to completely cut what was left of Ukraine off from the sea and link up with Transnistria, the thin slice of Moldova occupied by pro-Russian Separatists almost since independence. Given they also attempted the "genocide of Russian speakers" excuse on Moldova, it's possible at some point, they thought they could help themselves to Moldova as well. Putin may have even harboured ambitions of bringing his "Russiky mir" dream to life - especially given his numerous statements to the effect of granting Ukraine independence was a mistake, believing Ukraine is not, has never been, and ever will be a "proper" country and that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all one people.
I think the drive toward Kiev was to force Ukraine to agree to what Russia had done
They wanted to topple the government with their attacks on kiev - the manpower, logistics never indicated an occupation of the whole ukraine. they still would want a buffer state with a puppet or otherwise dependent government, as annexing whole ukraine would not solve their problem with having a border with nato states (maybe they could have wanted to annex with the idea of later sacrificing the territory again in a war ). and occupying a country is expensive - maybe that could work if they have the idea of letting ukraine pay for "protection" with the ressources
@@pedroewert143 Please forget the Russian talk about Nato. There was at least one Nato base on Russian territory to refuel transporter flights to Afghanistan. And Russia itself, already under Putin, wanted to join Nato, either in 2000 or 2001. This Nato phobia is just an excuse for an invasion.
@@pedroewert143 Toppling the government is effectively taking over the country. With no leadership the country cannot resist the rest of the invasion.
The Ukrainians recovered the operational orders for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It called for a ten day operation to decapitate the Ukrainian Government (literally - all the members of the Ukrainian government were to be executed).
Great analysis. Really, congrats. I love your analysis. Your channel is great.
Agree with the analysi. Since the start of the war I believed that the main goal of the war is to make land connection to Crimea and ideally to make Ukraine land locked : as a benefit to grab Azov sea. This way Ukraine will not be able to export its grains, etc
Extremely interesting and thought provoking. This provides a new prism through which to observe events. Thank you.
Thanks for taking the time to make your videos on Ukraine war. Appreciated. Bought your book as well. On my Kindle reading list (quite long!). Will post a review later. Thanks again.
Thanks for the analysis. Great insight. From what I understand though, the terrain in northern Crimea poses significant problems to a large land force incursion. T
Watching all the time , interested so much , thanks.
I really appreciate the break down of NATO’s role in this. Always understood NATO expansion wasn’t the real reason Putin invaded
It was an incredibly important factor.
@@radwilly1770 Still, if it was NATO expansion that was the problem, invading Ukraine was the wrong answer. Go to NATO directly. Don’t go after the guy just standing there, minding his own business.
It's more likely that the Ukraine-EU deal was the real trigger to the fateful events of 2014, a commitment to values, anti-corruption and democracy which has served the Baltics and Poland comparatively well. The Kerch straits bridge enabled force projection in 2022 towards Kherson and Odesa, improving potential supply. So I think the slip by Belarus's Lukaschenko briefing taking the whole coast, taking Moldova & Trans-Nistria was the intended follow up to the Ukraine blitzkrieg that became a debacle near Kyiv. It fits with the Russian geo-political school's security ideas (totally insane but widely circulated)
It's more likely that the Ukraine-EU deal was the trigger, Vladolf Pootin's puppet was supposed to switch to the Kremlin Eurasian Union instead, but ended up fleeing the country.
@@radwilly1770 After the 2014 invasion any Ukrainian attempt to join nato went out the window
Pointing out the damming of the canal restricting fresh water, with the picture made your analytical arc very real and understandable! Shows the military thinking going on all during the Crimea conflict. When I can sense or see the foundations of assertions I find them most illuminating!
The Russians removed the damn months ago. Water is flowing back into Crimea.
Yeah, the entire war was about water. "The wars in the 20th century will be fought over oil. The wars in the 21st century will be fought over water." Read that in DOD publications in 2003.
Nonsense. Russia's goal is not a small semi-island. Russia's goal is "russian world" which is domination of russian culture in the world. Any undemocratic leader is afraid of revolutions and Ukraine is a "bad" example for russia
@@aaronbaker2186 The damming is a fight over land, not water.
Glad to see you are feeling a little better!!! Keep up the great news about Ukraine I enjoy your show and how u get the information across to us God bless and Glory to Ukraine
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
Best show and love how you take your time with the videos and don’t push garbage out everyday . Just a well rounded breakdown love it and look forward to more
Tremendous analysis has provided a quantum leap in my understanding of the underlying strategic implications of the war I had not been aware of.
I didn't hear him say anything about nazi's. So strange when he gives such detail with most other items. Or the eight years of shelling civilians in eastern Ukraine ie the Donbass region, why would he do that. Oh just heard him say nazi but he didn't explain anything ha he can't of seen the little girls doing the nazi salute, plus a male standing on a moving vehicle saluting, all this was caught on film by CNN, in Kherson not to mention the people suspected of collaborating with the Russians tied up to posts and tortured, sexually assaulted and humiliated, but I suspose their lucky not to have been executed, like the nazi's did in Bucha at the start of this war. He says nothing about the 15k fatalities in the Donbass region, which the Americans probably organized and if not they certainly knew about it. Why was the US building up the Ukraine army when it had just signed the minsk agreement. You are just this person wants to misinform. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he worked for the pentagon. The Rand Corporation wrote a document for the pentagon called Extending Russia -2019, which is very much a blueprint for how the war has panned out. It has more to the title -something like "taking the advantageous ground". But note the date. Very interesting people who don't spout propaganda is The Duran, The New Atlas, Garland Nixon, US Col.Douglas MacGregor Jeffery Sachs(prof) and Scott Ritter as just some but these guys know their stuff
@@hawkbartril3016 You know, actually the many fasicts/nazis are from Russia, as you can see, they are invading a neighbour, deportation of civillians to Siberia etc., lying to their own people to make them hate their neighbours and even kill them. Even their "elite-forces" are Wagner(Nazi)-Mercenaries, even openly wearing a signet/logo derived from the original Nazi-SS-Totenkopf. Not saying their have never been nationalists in Ukraine, but not really that many. Also the shelling of civillians in Donbass is a Russians state TV story, not a fact. Just look up the officially and independently acknowledged (from both sides) casualties of the conflict on Wikipedia (nope, it's not 14k civillians, but liek 3.250 or so until 2022). You can see that most people died in the conflict are fighters on both sides, but of course everything because of Russias invasion. Civllians were killed like 45/55% or so, little more through Russian separatists. You can also add the shot down passenger plane on their death count. Russian media will twist anything they get to create some story that not even a 9 year old intelligent child would believe, because it is so badly constructed, like the Moscva story and basically anything aboout this war. "We are not going to attack Ukraine" -> few days later invasion, "Moscka didn't sink, only one casualty -> yeah, right, .... - I hope you are just a scripted bot since I don't believe a homo sapiens is that stupid to even believe one single statement from Putin's regime. But yeah, obviously a whole country seems to be turning into Neanderthals. Misinformation campaigners like you are the absolute no brainers of our species and as anyone can see are now eliminating themselves in artillery infernos. Natural selection? Let me guess, you are not even from Russia , why not fighting but talking bs on youtube?
Excellent production and very plausible.
The first good analysis on KZhead about the real reasons behind this war! 😎
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
Finding people who have plausible ideas about the possible strategies involved is difficult. This one is very plausible. Thanks.
New subscriber. Thanks for an educational summary of the recent history and ongoing conflict in this region.
This stands a very comprehensive analysis. I like it even more than I did 4 months ago... We are about to get answers to our questions... We'll see...jt Slava Ukraini !
Very informative analysis! Thank you very much!
I’m Thai and I grew up just across the river from Lao, my first language is Laotian. My last name is Laotian , my ancestors were from Lao but I will support Thailand or die for Thailand if Thai and Lao would go to war, fortunately Thais and Laotians don’t care for each other land no more. We just love each other’s food and money so we do business not war
I also love Thai food!
Why would you kill yourself for no reason. Is it your love for your junkie king?
SMART PEOPLES
if only everyone would just be happy with what they have, and not need to take more...
Very interesting. In my opinion the tourist potential of crimea might even outweigh the military base. That is a lot of beaches, mountains, and warm coastline that Russia generally lacks, and would like to have for prestige. EDIT: To elaborate, annexing crimea seems to be one of the most popular things Putin has done for Russia. I have a hard time thinking this is because the average Russian cares about the strategic importance of the naval base. Clearly crimea holds a lot of symbolic value.
yep we have to retake crimea and demine the entire beaches so we can accept some shitty tourists
It may have some cultural value but its pretty clear that Russia is obsessed with having a warm water port so they can project naval power. Culture value is just the veneer for public support. The military application is the real issue here.
Bro since russia took it tourism has increased like 5 times and investment has only gone up. You also forgot Sochi its a pretty good beach destination. Also yes it does hold a great geopolitical historic and cultural value
With all the russians there, Crimea is a messy sh!thole. When the russian rats run back home and Ukraine cleans it up, it has potential because the nature is beautiful. Only russians with their low standards of living can appreciate it in the current garbage state.
@@thomsen256 It's folly really. Russia's naval power is dubious to say the least, and there's a strong argument that they'd be better off refocusing those funds on a better army and air force. They might actually have 1000 T14 tanks if they weren't burning billions trying to be a naval power. Russia needs to wake up to it not being a superpower anymore, a navy is a luxury for a country which has very little accessible coastline anyway, 99% of invasions of Russia were land based.
Honestly, this makes more sense than anything else I've heard. It's hard to believe that it's just corruption and greed, for such dramatic loss, but stranger things have happened.
Really informative, thx!
This is really some fascinating food for thought. I love these videos of strategy and tactics on this kind of level.
Very, very informative and makes the historical interest and future of Crimea clear and intellectually stimulating. Well done. Thank you.
I didn't hear him say anything about nazi's. So strange when he gives such detail with most other items. Or the eight years of shelling civilians in eastern Ukraine ie the Donbass region, why would he do that. Oh just heard him say nazi but he didn't explain anything ha he can't of seen the little girls doing the nazi salute, plus a male standing on a moving vehicle saluting, all this was caught on film by CNN, in Kherson not to mention the people suspected of collaborating with the Russians tied up to posts and tortured, sexually assaulted and humiliated, but I suspose their lucky not to have been executed, like the nazi's did in Bucha at the start of this war. He says nothing about the 15k fatalities in the Donbass region, which the Americans probably organized and if not they certainly knew about it. Why was the US building up the Ukraine army when it had just signed the minsk agreement
Best analysis ive heard
@@hawkbartril3016 He did mention the Nazi accusations. But I suppose you chose to miss that. I don't believe you.
@@hawkbartril3016 go to bed Igor - Mummy has another client and she doesn’t want to hear you playing medal of honour 😂
@@djbrock65 get your thumb out of your mouth, can't understand wtf your on about
Nice summary. Thank you.
Great analysis. Thank you. G
Good analysis, thank you for the video. Much food for thought as this terrible war continues.
Sevastapol’s natural features make it a magnificent port, which is understated in this video: it’s a very special place on the Black Sea.
Right; too bad Russia has just destroyed its opportunity to use it in the future. Basically everything Putin has tried has backfired on him, including this. If he had simply complied with the Budapest Memorandum, and avoided interference in Ukraine's internal affairs, everything could have been worked out amicably. The US has lived peacefully and cooperatively with Canada for over 200 years, except for the "pig war" of 1859, in which the only casualty was a single trespassing pig. In contrast, post-USSR relationships between russia and Ukraine have careened from disagreement to hostility to disaster because of the megalomania of one man - V. Putin. Ceterum censeo Putin et eius percussores delendos esse.
@@RichardTaylor1630 the United States invaded Canada during the War of 1812 with the idea that they would join us against the Brits and Canada kicked our ass, so you really need the bone up on your history.
@@RichardTaylor1630 lol let ukraine dare launch their so called counter attack on crimea and you will see just how evil russia can be,you haven't seen anything yet
Many years ago following Ukraine's independence from the USSR in 1991, Ukraine's First President (Leonid Kravchuk) was interviewed by a Time Magazine correspondent and stated the following: "They (Russia) gave us a broken doll (the cession of Crimea from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954). We fixed it (Crimea) and now they (Russia) want it back." All in all, a rather diplomatic understatement considering the fact that the Russians have been willing to resort to any kind of subterfuge to regain control of this "Sudetenland styled" Ukrainian territory.
Very interesting! Thank you!
This is the best analysis 'ive read so far. Everything makes sense now. You are a genius William Spaniel!!!
Very astute and interesting study that does ask and answer some important questions. Its good to hear the thoughts of someone who has obviously done a lot of research and who is prepared to look a bit deeper than the usual surface skaters.
Keep fighting UA, you're doing it for your own freedom and wealth! ✌ 2:11 Yea, that one was beautifully done!
Brilliant assessment! Thanks for sharing.
I was living for the last 16 years in the Zaporizhzhya region and visited Crimea very often even a few times after the annexation. Your analysis is 100% to the point!!
Ukraine is being destroyed. Ukraine can't be optimistic about anything! It's people will be destitute before long! They'll be thinking about food not Crimea!
Read the top comment from someone who used to live in Crimea and who does not agree.
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
Yes, hit the kerch bridge again, after clipping the land bridge, and even with the canal still delivering water, Crimea will slowly strangle. The UA may not need to take on Crimea head on, if they can split the land bridge. I agree with you - splitting the RA in two is the key.
Ukraine ought simply Himar & Destroy the Sebastopol Naval base thus eliminating the Russian interest - given they could not realistically rebuild it.
@@SchrodingersPussyCat Wrong move, Sebastobol has also value for Ukrainians. Long range Himars, hitting every train going from or to crimea, destroying the Kertch bridge, and Crimea will fall like a rotten fruit
@@SchrodingersPussyCat the rockets currently supplied for the HIMARS in Ukraine have a range of around 80km. Sevastopol is around 200km from the land bridge. The Kerch Bridge is about as far from the shore in Mariupol. So, even if that was the ideal strategy, there is a ways to go before it could be implemented. The countries supplying ammunition for the HIMARS would have to start sending the long range ones (300km range). The Baltic countries might be talked into that, but most countries (especially the states) are hesitant to deliver any munitions that can hit very far into Russia.
I don't see how the Bridge can be an inadequate supply route, atleast in times of peace
@@dontcomply3976 Too narrow to feed +2 million people, and since 2014 it's not time of peace
I have learnt a lot about the Russia Ukraine war from your videos. I didn't seem to understand the issues in the war.
Wow. Very insightful.
Thank you for an excellent discussion of the strategic issues.
I like how you enunciate every syllable. Native speakers usually dont, and it makes it harder not just for non native speakers to understand but even native speakers that are doing other things with background noise.
I call it speaking "deliberately", likely the wrong term for it. It's also nicer to listen to. Also props to Williams for not repeating himself and speaking in well thought out sentences.
@@incremental_failure newscasters are trained to do it so there probably is a term for it but yeah I havent heard an official one either
Hoping for a happy Christmas & New Year to all Ukrainians despite their sufferings at this time God bless you all .
Spot on!
I love the way you spoke about it in a way that seems real and very attainable to understand for those of us who are un-initiated in war tactics and the news over the conflict over the years.
My family is from Crimea. They told me how russian "referendum" was conducted. It is either "yes", or people in uniform will talk with you about your family, place of work, your address. I honestly proud that some people choose "no" inspite russian soldiers without actual markings, staying in front of them. Some was definitely pro russian back then. But now everything changed. They saw what it is like to be russian "friend".
Seethe, vatnik
I've been to Crimea 6 months after that (tourism) for 2 weeks (Simferopol, Sevastopol and Yalta). All people (who spoke English, of course) that I've talked supported Russia. Even if Ukraine get to Crimea, thei will have a hard time to avoid revolt on Crimea
Same with my relatives in Zaporizhzhia oblast. A few armed men showed up, gave them bulletins and watched how they vote. Considering that previously the Russians shot down three families of servicemen who fought back in 2014, they voted to join Russia. Crimea is another thing anyways, after 8 years of hardcore brainwashing, I believe the absolute majority of people support Russia, but I still believe that we can get along and earn their loyalty
@@eljosende873 It's not "thei" it is "they".....try better next time, bot.
Just to be clear, there were many russian supporters in Crimea, but after full scale invasion, many people changed their opinion and don't want to stay with russia. Many moved out from Crimea, and even more stayed to support Ukraine however they can.
Great brief. Thank you.
Mr. Spaniel, Thank you for this concise rundown on the causes and present situation in the Ukraine conflict. This is really good. Your analysis of the situation in Ukraine, while not new in much of it's information, ties together the Russian thinking. The Russian actions in Ukraine are not always logical it seems; well you articulate the Putin logic completely. Thank you Sir.
You have most certainly hit the nail on the head here, very strong analysis of the situation.
One of the best narratives I have listened to on Ukraine, and the occupied regions. Susinct and to the point, with clear understanding of what motivates both countries to gain control of these regions. Thank you!
great assessment -- Bang On 👍👍
Incredibly interesting analysis! Always a good idea not to automatically accept Russia's explanations at face value, since they lie constantly about everything.
Thankfully, the US govt is there to set the right example, eh? My God, man, are you that daft?
lol, so to Ukrainians... this war is a war of propaganda and lies. Reality is different and nobody not on the ground there has any real idea what is going on.
@@germanjohn5626 Precisely. kzhead.info/sun/e6aihpWgbnajaH0/bejne.html&lc=UgwcXFewAnmxkrIFq7B4AaABAg.9k7CLvWm-cw9kepOLcqKq9 Mate, I am surprised, you're smart. *sarcastic reaction on your sarcasm*
At keast thats what your told to believe. When your fed lies about lies it becomes harder and harder to believe anything once you figure that out. Usually the one that's repeated constantly in the media is the true lie.
@@glenzee9083 TRUE!!! And therefore, why not reach out to Professor Mearsheimer, and ask for evidence? Instead of saying: You lie, or he lies, verify the data. That is what I do, as well, sir. Or will you deny the fact that since the '50's, the Cold War has been raging, uninterrupted so, up to the point RIGHT BEFORE where Russia invaded Ukraine? That the propaganda about the "evil Commies" did stop, in that same time line? That MANY innocent AMERICANS died by Govt. hands who said: "Commie Lover!", while that one only came out with a truth? Here's a fun one: Are you denying the fact that Trump caused up to 1.3 MILLION AMERICANS to die, because he refused to take action during the first outbreak? What is it called, when you know people will die because of whatever reason, but you REFUSE to take action? Oh, wait, could that be .... MURDER? IF so, why was he allowed to continue? Why isn't he sued and trialled as a murderer? OOOOh, riiiight, I forgot. He said: "I do not take blame." and his word became law, right? Might want to wake up, lad.
Your video nails the problem. I am glad someone has finially pointed this out.
Excellent thanks 👍👍👍
Very interesting and well presented.
I think you probably called this one correctly. Good job man! You painted a logically sound and intriguing picture of the way those talks could’ve hypothetically went. I enjoyed this.
He is wrong. The main reason is a threat of Ukraine becomes democratic and ruined russias sweet dreams of recreation of its empire
First time watching this channel. I thought this might be biased towards Ukraine, but it was actually just really informative. Nice job.
They do do this aspect of the reporting well, don't they.
The moral of the story is: the war was not unprovoked! Ukraine could have avoided the war, but chose not to do it. Ukraine could just open the water gate to Crimea, and avoid one of main reasons for the war.
@@alexuzun6314 how much are the Russians paying you?
Thanks for this analysis.
An excellent analysis Thanks a lot
Thank you for the brief history and video lots of info
I also heard a theorie that the invasion of Ukraine was because of large oil and gas fields found under East Ukraine and the sea in front of Crimea. There are so large they could undermine the position of Russia in the energy market
This is the main reason Europa wants Ukraine. It is the reason Europa got rid of the sitting president in 2014 a week after he signed an agreement to trade with Russia instead of Europa. To me this is the entire reason we keep sending weapons, not bc of the Ukrainians but because we need the gas. It's all about money like every other war we started was.
@Ron Zabel I agree it's probably a big reason why Europe is this involved. I don't agree Europe got rid of the Russia favoring president in 2014. The Ukrainians did that.
exactly
@@ronzabel3918 In case you missed it Europe didn't get rid of Ukraine's president in 2014, the Ukrainian people did. The US and EU certainly cheered the Ukrainians on in their quest for freedom from the Russian boot, but it was all the Ukrainian people's doing and Yanukovych's. Yanukovych was on elected running on the platform of joining the EU, being neutral, and not joining NATO. The Ukrainian people were jubilant at this and for the first time in decades held hope Ukraine might become prosperous instead of the backward and corrupt system Russia foisted on it. When Yanukovych came home one day and told the people, "remember that idea to join the EU you guys elected me for? Well guess what, I got a great deal for myself and can expand my private zoo, I took it upon myself to sign a deal with Russia instead. Screw you suckers" The Ukrainian people peacefully demonstrated and demanded he retract his deal and join the EU, they were not even demanding he resign. It was only after he opened fire on the Ukrainian people that they ran him out of the country. Shitty pre-2014 Russian puppet leaders and Russia being Russia are the main cause of this war. The Ukrainian people will be free of them soon. Russia should worry less about keeping countries on its border subservient and miserable and should maybe start focusing on itself.
You all seem to forget that the results of the elections in 2010 were very pro Russian. Like every other country in the world that has had civil war and natural resources, we are always the ones igniting and escalating to destabilize and put our people in place. But as it always turns out after a while, the people don't want this and we fail. Yet, we are making a lot of profit in this war in the US and Europe is bleeding, freezing and bankrubt.
Your analysis was very interesting and informative - thank you. I agree that after a thrust through Zaporizha the regaining of Crimea would be best achieved by a pause. It would probably be necessary to first stabilise the Azov and Black Sea coasts there to then enable an operation similar to the Kherson counteroffensive - i.e. to bottle up and blockade the 30 000 Russian troops in Crimea at the same time encouraging Crimean occupants to vacate over the Kerch bridge until the position became strategically untenable for the Russians.
At this time, the Ukrainians are maintaining their efforts on the Eastern battlefront, so I would target Crimea asap with everyone else. The Crimea citizens will flee. The Russian Navy already has, or will be sunk once in range. Ukrainians can then turn their forces North as they concentrate their superior Army on taking the remaining East of the country with double the resources, and one front. Continued victories will provide an even greater motivation towards total success.
@@willmears1111 pipe dreams
Cool, so of starvation is legal, just let Russia starve Ukraine into a 21st century Holodomor.
@Opus Dei Russians haven’t beaten anyone since 1945. 15 months in and 200,000 casualties later they’ve only advanced 50-60 miles…Whereas before this war, Russian military was feared and respected. Now the world understands how corrupt, weak, and ineffective they really are… Kiev, Kharkiv, Lyman, Kherson all highlight the Russian militaries favorite operation: the headlong Retreat. And with the counteroffensive right around the corner, we’re sure to see more of the same in Zaporizha. From Tokmak simultaneously to Berdiansk and Melitopol 😙 they gonna be RUNNING east, west, and south to the sea. Maybe the brave Black Sea fleet will peak out of their harbor and make a few rescues, but probably not. They know Ukrainian drones will be waiting 💥💥💥 I wonder when the Kerch bridge will be blown up again…..Ukraine could keep the west to east route open so that Russian civilians could escape, but blow up the east-west section to prevent incoming supplies, ammo, reinforcements from entering. It it were me, I’d blow Both routes at the same time. More Russian civilians stuck in Crimea=people start starving and turning on eachother sooner… You see, what goes around comes around. How many missiles has Putin wasted targeting Ukrainian civilians…? But Russian civilians in Crimea will surly be spared the horrors of war…? 😅😅 It All comes back around baby 💥💥💥 Coming Soon to Russians in Crimea 💋💀 what was done in your name will be happening to You soon 💫
Thanks William and friends, TTFN
Excellent analysis.. Add to this the oil and gas reserves, coal and steel and processing and extraction thereof, there was too much at stake for Russia to leave it alone. In a decade, with western fracking technology, Ukraine could have replaced much of Russia's oil and gas supply to Europe. But with all these addition of troops it seems like an offensive would be so costly I question the feasibility of it.
Like William has said, it may be more than enough to simply cut off the land bridge and wait. Russia can't even defend the Kerch Strait Bridge, as has already been proven. They cannot supply the people living in Crimea, let alone a significant military presence, without the land bridge to Crimea.
Ukrator.....
Dang muh western technology can make your nation be like gardens eve apperantly 1st stop thinking your technology is in any way supirior without actualy proving it 2nd there are already many nations within the weatern sphere of influence rich in recources yet even after so many years they remain poor. Ukraine will not have the same living standarts as germany or any western nation not in 10 years not 20 years not in however many years, untill it actualy gets a government that is not corrupt, with no bootlickers and has strong united political stance, lets not mention the massive advantege of neutrality they could have had. It will need a patriotic economic model with a lot of protectionism. All of these are just no feasable in our globalised world and foreign intervention. 3rd no matter how hard ukraine tries or how much money is invested the amount of oil and gas that can be pumped is still limited
@@Xelief they can defend the bridge that wasnt a missile strike it was a covert operation with a lot of preparation which did absolutly nothing and the predictions for the repairs of the bridge being finished in 2023 are being proven wrong with photos of major parts of it already fixed. Crimeans have better living standarts than some of us in the eu.
@@Silver_Prussian "did absolutely nothing"... Okay buddy, I'm not going to waste time arguing any further than this against such demonstrable bullshit. The damage to the bridge was very much something and has been shown to the world.
Extremely insightful observations that explain the seemingly odd moves of Russia. Many many thanks!!!
Thank you for the educational session 👏👏😜
Superb analysis and insights
Everyone needs to watch this video. This is the best explanation and compilation that supports my exact thoughts and feelings for the real reason behind this entire war in the first place. Thank you
I didn't hear him say anything about nazi's. So strange when he gives such detail with most other items. Or the eight years of shelling civilians in eastern Ukraine ie the Donbass region, why would he do that. Oh just heard him say nazi but he didn't explain anything ha he can't of seen the little girls doing the nazi salute, plus a male standing on a moving vehicle saluting, all this was caught on film by CNN, in Kherson not to mention the people suspected of collaborating with the Russians tied up to posts and tortured, sexually assaulted and humiliated, but I suspose their lucky not to have been executed, like the nazi's did in Bucha at the start of this war. He says nothing about the 15k fatalities in the Donbass region, which the Americans probably organized and if not they certainly knew about it. Why was the US building up the Ukraine army when it had just signed the minsk agreement
@@hawkbartril3016 Oh you just heard him say nazi, good for you. Have you got anything sensible to say, now that you have finished gargling Putin's balls for about 30 seconds. You forgot to mention the neo nazi elements in Mother Russia herself, and oh, any number of countries around the world. You forgot to mention that there has been active progress over the last 8 years or so to purge the Azov of its more extremist elements, including, yes, pro-Nazi sentimentality. You forgot to mention that the vast majority of the deaths in the Donbass have been between the fighters themselves, although let's not ignore the fact that of course, civilians got caught up among it also. Most importantly, you outright lie, blaming "probably" (in your own words) the Americans, when it was the Russians who started it. You ignore that Russia herself, has become the imperialist Nazis, by action (not name). Do you remember the old saying about actions and words, hawbartil?
@@hawkbartril3016 Absolutely agree. Biased, mixed with Wikipedia history. Missed all unpleasant "details". Not to mention militaristic coup 2014, against Yanukovich, for who voted all Eastern Ukraine. That votes didn't mentioned at all. Another point, Russia heavy invested in Crimea infrastructure, neglected by Kiev 20 years. That increased quality of life in Crimea, under sanctions. Oh yes, Crimean citizens "love" westerners. Organized rebellion in Crimea... bua ha ha. And marketing statistic - that was a pearl.
@@Santor6 yeah may as well watch CNN as they say the same crap. Problem is so many in the comments are believing him, and if you don't know the truth then how do you know these brainwashed aren't right. It's so bad it the way the media is giving us the same rubbish. I couldn't believe it when I first started looking into it, how does this work. The details would be very very interesting. It might take a few years for that to surface
Agreed. This is first time I have seen a logical explanation that made me sit up and go "ah ha, that's why they are doing this"
DEAR WILLIAM, THANKS FOR YOUR EXCELLENT FORENSIC explanation of the situation in Crimea. As for my opinion on how we got to this situation: unfettered greed and egotistical behaviour was the means. Human behaviour is sometimes vile and repugnant. Most of what Putin has done is just that. Why he hasn’t been put down long ago is testament to the rigid wall of self defence that he maintains. I’m looking forward to his testimony before the Hague. It no doubt will be comedic and stupid. Monty python will gather a new set of lines from it. Cheers.
I agree and good explanation.
The real world has long ago crossed the Monty Python lines. It's almost impossible to parody the modern stupidity.
In order for Putin to end up in The Hague, NATO would have to occupy Russia and capture him. That will never happen because Russia is a nuclear power, and unofficial Cold War MAD doctrine still applies to both them and the West. That's why Ukraine is playing out as a proxy war, and not a direct US-led coalition action with NATO boots on ground like, say, Desert Storm. Remember, nukes are the only thing that can guarantee the survival of a regime. Even the Soviet regime still survived the fall of the USSR. None of its leaders ended up in an international court like Milosevic did after Yugoslavia collapsed. The continued existence of the Russian Federation and Putin himself are simply remnants of the Soviet regime, and the only way they'll fall is from within.
in the Hague, the criminals of the United States and NATO will be tried for destroying dozens of countries and killing millions of people. Putin deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for fighting against Western aggressors.
Impressive demonstration. « Tout ça pour ça ! » Tens of thousands of dead for a naval base… John from Belgium
Yes,Putin will pay any price for that naval base,plus supply fresh water from Ukrainian river, that water make the entire region sustainable and make this game worth fighting for Russia. All stems from broken Soviet empire!
Very helpful!
Very good detail it's great you explain matters
Nice and logical analysis much enjoyed especially with the historic content. Thanks.
The canal issue has been what I've seen as the sticking point since I first learned about it early in the war. Lack of water is a pressing issue in many parts of the Western US and having that much pop without water would cause irreparable damage to Russia's ability to actually hold the peninsula.
Crimea has sufficient fresh water for domestic and most industrial uses. It is just not enough for agricultural use at the scale it was done prior to 2014.
Yes and who stopped the flow, Ukraine?
@@hawkbartril3016 yes, they stopped the ARTIFICIAL canal built by Russia. Russia is an occupying force. It is Russia's legal responsibility to manage resources like that in occupied territories, not Ukraine's. Ukraine cutting the canal simply means the Crimean environment starts to return to its natural steppe.
I do wonder how receptive the Crimeans will be to Ukraine after having issues with power and water. But, I do agree that those are basic provisions the occupying force should provide, without expectation that the country that was invaded should provide them. And, Ukraine could provide better stability to the region. If Russia spends $1 Trillion in an attempt to steal power and water from Ukraine, as well as killing hundreds of thousands of their own soldiers, then perhaps a better investment would have been a nuke plant, desalination plant, and pipelines across the Kerch strait. Ukraine should demand further repatriation of Crimean Tatars post war.
@@Hjernespreng Crime is Russia. Was, is, and forever!
Beautiful. I’m convinced by the idea.
Thanks you for posting this very interesting Ukraine Russia conflict video. Things have changed since this video was posted 5 months ago... I would like to know your opinion now Mr. William Spaniel. Is it the same? is it too soon to tell what the outcome of the war will be?
I read in a book once "the history of wars in Russia is a history of wars for a warm water port"
Good analysis!