RUSSIA-UKRAINE | First Thoughts on the Invasion
On 21 February 2022, Russia President Vladimir Putin announced that he had recognised the independence of the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Just days later, he order Russian troops to invade Ukraine as a whole. Obviously, events are unfolding fast. However, there are a number of questions about what the invasion means in the short, medium and longer term. This video attempts to give some initial thoughts on the war in Ukraine and some of the key issues to consider on the days, weeks and months ahead.
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CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
0:34 What Does Russia Hope to Achieve?
4:21 How is the War Likely to Develop?
7:30 Is this the Start of a New Cold War?
9:25 What Will this Mean for NATO?
11:04 Will This Spread to the Baltics?
12:49 What does this Mean for China-Taiwan?
16:00 Some Final Thoughts
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Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs www.mfa.gov.ua
Russia Ministry of Foreign Affairs www.mid.ru/en/
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KEYWORDS
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This was obviously a video that I was hoping that I wouldn't have to make. The situation is Ukraine is extremely fluid and unfolding very quickly. So these are just some first responses to the questions that many of you had - and kindly posted on the community tab last night.
The UN is looking weaker by Russia's actions. A permanent member of the security council illegally invading a neighbour undermines the legitimacy of the entire UN body. If the UN can't protect member states then what's the point of being members if you are prey to other nations tyrannical whimsy
You havent thought about your anti-russian bias being a problem for your authority James?
Can you do a 1 hour live Q&A sometime soon? 💪🙏
@@nativetorontonian We, in Serbia, ask that question more then 20 years.
Why don't you stand with Yemen like you do stand with Ukraine? Why is one group less than the other group? Can we take our "Hitler goggles" view of the world off and view all peoples from all countries as equal?
James: “Unfortunately, Ukraine will have to be given up.” Ukrainians: “Come and take it.”
Its hard to blame James for thinking that Ukraine was going to lose the war quickly...every western military analyst that could get a soap box had been saying this since the beginning. Its not clear to me exactly how Ukraine has managed this, be it due to their extreme valor, western military intelligence, or by virtue of the Russians being idiots (or maybe a combination of all 3). But the truth is that what once seemed inevitable is almost not even a possibility anymore.
They will never win a war unless other nations militaries get involved. Its not worth it. Russia and Ukraine are neighbors and practically the same people. The west should of never meddled.
@@reaperzeero james K underestimated them.. it’s too easy to go along with the fashionable narrative sometimes
Strictly speaking, he ascribed that stance to Western governments rather than himself.
It's wild to see the revolution of thought on this conflict in only a month's time. This was an interesting video for that particular reason.
Thank you for your input. I fully agree with your final thoughts. To me, the escalation in Ukraine has been tragic and surreal to witness. I fear we are indeed entering a new Cold War era. I think most people suspected a military escalation was imminent - but the scale of what is happening in Ukraine is beyond horrifying. The road which led to this is long and as you rightly point out, there could have been decisions made in the past to avoid it. But Violence cannot be the answer - it just must not be. Please stay safe everyone.
Violence , sanctions, debt-traps, propaganda, coups etc. There are numerous ways to make humans suffer.
Thanks PwP. I completely agree with all your sentiments!
It's morbidly interesting to witness a "historic moment" as it unfolds. Wishing the best to the people and independence of Ukraine.
same with covid tbh
Ukraine is already independent
@@natedlc854 for the time being. My hope is that they survive through this war with their independence intact, even if that seems unlikely.
This incident shows just how weak the euros are. Before invading, Putin was talking over their heads to the USA. That French guy Macron got reduced to playing the role of messenger boy between Putin and Biden.
@@natedlc854 For now, but that could change.
So glad I recently found your channel. Appreciate all your work.
Been waiting all week for this!!! thank you for your work!
Thanks for the video, James, it's been difficult to understand what the future holds
Finally! I’ve been waiting for your commentary!
same!
Thank you for another well structured video. This is perhaps the most concerning video you have ever had to make and I appreciate the effort you've made to raise a higher level of understanding of the issues. Such a difficult time for those affected in Ukraine, my thoughts go out to them every day that this war continues.
Thank you very much. It is indeed an extremely worrying time, not just for Ukraine but for the wider international system.
Thank you, James, for sharing your analysis now rather than waiting to see how the situation develops. We are all trying to make sense of this historically unfortunate event. What do you think about barring Russia from the SWIFT system? More specifically, how would it affect regular people in Russia who rely on or provide financial support to loved ones outside of Russia? Also, how would it impact innocent KZheadrs in Russia?
Your detailed analysis are so good and informative Prof. Ker-Lindsay. Thank you for your great work!! Respect!
Thank you
Thanks, I was very interested to hear your thoughts .
Great video, thank you for your thoughts on this
Thank you so much. It really is a shocking situation to see unfolding.
Thank you sir.
So much information per take, wow!!
Thanks for your analysis Prof James. This is very worrisome.
Great analysis professor. Thank you for the video
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. It is certainly very worrying to see all this happen. It hardly seems believable.
@@JamesKerLindsay it is very distressing to see all this happening, no matter from what creed or race you belong to. I hope and pray that everything gets better somehow. P.s. I really want to appreciate your channel. Your videos are so informative. Thank you professor!!
Thanks for this. I happened to start watching your channel recently because I wanted a better understanding of the former Yugoslavia. I really appreciate the objective and non-partisan tone of your videos.
Thank you and I also would have preferred that this was video did not have to be made however it is helpful to try and gain understanding.
Thanks for those analysis. Would be interesting to see a video from you how you assess the talks that have been taken place in recent weeks and the diplomatic strategies that have been followed during such.
Thanks. I might try to come back to this at some point. But having been involved in such processes, the reality is that we won’t know exactly what was going on for many, many years.
@@JamesKerLindsay Definitly true! Would still be interesting to hear about your interpretation of what was going on, bc like you said one can only guess (which is what I have been doing for weeks now) but some guesses might be more accurate than others 😉
Loving the old framed Bank of England note behind you. I stumbled across you in a video about Nagorno-Karabakh which was very insightful. Now, I find you in the comments of a video about video editing. Eventually I found my way to your channel and I really enjoy your analysis and insight. Thank you!
Haha! Well spotted. :-) There’s actually a bit of family history to that note. My great grandfather was the permanent secretary to the Treasury and his signature appeared on the notes, which were at one point called ‘Bradbury’s’ after him.
@@JamesKerLindsay That is absolutely fascinating! They are still referred to as 'Bradbury's' in the banknote collecting community. His legacy lives on! Thank you for the wonderful reply :)
Amazing watching this 9 months on, how wrong we all were about the strength of Russia's miliatry and Ukraine's chances of survival.
Indeed. We all took it for granted that Russia would secure a quick and easy victory. It is a very useful lesson. But it's certainly interesting to look back on the period before the invasion. Going through the comments, you can see how many people - Russian trolls and sympathisers - insisted that Russia wouldn't invade and that it was all Western propaganda.
Great video! Most of your videos focus primarily on history and only have a minimal of discussion on the current events. This video is not like that. I hope you make more videos like this, where you discuss current events. Your speculation is simply at a higher level of sophistication than most people's speculation. We would like to hear more of that.
Nice to hear you speak candidly
Thank you. It is obviously difficult to say very much at the moment. But I think it was worth trying to address some of the main issues that seem to be on people’s minds.
I have seen many of your videos, and already have a pretty good understanding on your stance towards Turkey. Just wondering your opinions on the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. Should Turkey allow Russian ships through or not in your opinion?
The real question is would Turkey take the risk irritating an already angry bear ? I mean it feels like Turkey is walking on a razor blade right now
@@Pavlos_Charalambous looks like Erdogan does not mind
@@ataberknalcakar indeed he looks like he made his mind
Fantastic video
Really good analysis
Hi Prof James. How can someone do a PhD with you?
Hi Prof James thanks for the video. Do you think that an invasion of Taiwan could follow especially taking into consideration China's position towards this invasion?
There would be a much larger build up of Chinese forces
Ukraine is alone vs Russia, with non commital neighbours, but hordes of countries will come to Taiwans aid, like Japan, US & most Asean countries. If Taiwan falls, then Johnsons 'domino theory' will come true.
Japan better re-arm.....
@@chitrachannelvlog4822 I am not that optimistic given the fact that these countries don’t even dare to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country.
Taiwan invasion will happen but Before Chines Election. He will need for his compane
Great video James - STAND WITH UKRAINE ❤
At the time, I also thought Russia had a strong military. I'm glad we were wrong. Unfortunately, we were also wrong about the sanctions having much effect on the Russian economy.
Thanks. You are right. We made all sorts of assumptions about the strength of the Russian military. It really has been remarkable to see how badly it has fared in this war. The sanctions issue is really interesting. I keep meaning to do something on this.
Hi professor, I see you are flooded with comments, and have probably been asked this a dozen times. How do you rate Putin's chances of holding on to power in the event that Russian objectives are not met? Or that the cost in economic and reputational damage is so great as to out weight any purely strategic/military gains?
Great video professor. I would however add just a couple of extra points. 1) will other nations now look to build nuclear weapons for their own deterrence? 2) does this impact the west's ability to negotiate with countries on defence? Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 90s on the pledge that they would be protected and this has not happened. North Korea has based it's nuclear program on deterrence and can now point to Ukraine as an example of why they need them, and why making deals with the west is not a viable solution. The same applies to Iran. Who have equally similar desires. Does this situation make it harder for the west to negotiate the surrender of irans nuclear ambitions?
Having nukes doesn't matter. Pakistan has nukes but they have no long range strike capabilities. They and NK have ping pong Nuclear warheads Nk artillery against Seoul is more dangerous but they would be killing their own race. And all Koreans want a unified Korea Iran is different because Saudi and turkey want nukes but don't because of western military support. China for example can't protect middle east. It's navy is shit it can't even send them 1000 miles past a port
Thanks. Great questions. I think there will be questions now about the role of nuclear deterrence. More immediately, you may have seen that Belarus has changed its constitution and will be able to station nuclear weapons on its territory. This is an extremely disturbing development. As for the wider effects, we shall obviously have to see. Things are moving past and we silly have no idea where it is going to end up. But I suspect we will be living in a rather different international system.
Moldova is gonna be next
Ooooooooh! Better late than never 🤓. Another great piece James
Thanks. I really was in two minds about doing a video this week. I had a completely different topic lined up. But it just seemed oddly incongruous to do it with everything that it happening in Ukraine. I then wrote another script following Russia's recognition of the breakaway territories. But that then became redundant with the invasion. This was put together far more quickly than I had would have liked. But I felt it might be useful to at least offer some initial thoughts on what is happening.
@@JamesKerLindsay I knew that you put in the extra work to get this out as quickly as you did, but I never questioned your end product. Always top notch 👌🏿. The UN is looking weaker by Russia's actions. A permanent member of the security council illegally invading a neighbour undermines the legitimacy of the entire UN body
You're great, James.
Excellently put with an objective take. As are your other videos. However I note that there is a lack of videos regarding military actions by NATO and the USA (and it's coalition) such as Kosovo and the Iraq War. Perhaps if you do an analysis of under the rubric of international law that be great!
What do you think about people comparing this to the situation in Czechoslovakia in the 1930s? Do you think it's a comparable situation?
Thank you Professor James. In Brazil, we have been hearing from our Ukrainian community about the war and many were shocked by Putin's aggression. I wish Brazil will welcome these unfortunate Ukrainians escaping Putinist empire. 🇧🇷❤️🇺🇦
Probably will. Brazil has a history of taking in Eastern europians.
Doesn't make much sense for Brazil to be the one to receive eastern European refugees when they can go to other eastern European and European countries much better equipped to welcome them. Also, Brazil should focus on the Venezuelan refugee crisis...they don't really have as many alternative destinations.
@@FOLIPE Brazil is a non-NATO ally. So much so that Brazil has emotional obligation to protect Ukrainian people.
Thanks Prof James, how do you think this invasion will impact the position of the south-east flank of NATO (Romania,Bulgaria,Greece,Turkey)?
On the day of Ukraine independence and as we hit 6 months of this war. I would love to hear an update of this and what you think.
China just announced that Ukraine's territory and sovereignty should be respected and urged talks between Ukraine and Russia as soon as feasible, China calls for diplomatic resolution to the crisis.
That's only because China doesn't want to see its own "breakaway territories" (Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang) recognized as independent nations by anyone.
also has limited loans to russia too i think
Morally I find the invasion appalling. Leaving aside the moral aspects. I just cannot understand how this is in Russia's interest. The only way I can make sense of this invasion from an amoral perspective is if he is looking at military interests over political/economic interests i.e. making it difficult to for the West/NATO to conduct a ground military attack on Russia. Secondly, he may want the oil in the black sea and shale oil in Eastern Ukraine. In other words he is valuing territorial gain, military interests and energy interests above economic and international relations interests? This one is so difficult for me to understand. Very nice to listen to your perspective to understand the Western perspective. It is a very informative and detailed explanation of Western thought.
Thank you very much. I think a lot of observers from around the world struggle to understand what Russia - or particularly Putin - is trying to do. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense unless it involves a long term occupation or the effective partition of the country; either of which will carry prolonged economic and political consequences.
Woohoo! Back again from just being all-around busy and a break from YT, but as always, I hope you're doing well. It's unfortunate what's been happening. The scare of WWIII is very apparent in the governments, and it's very anxiety-inducing with how cautiously the West is acting. With the news of troops moving into Europe, all of the views of Europeans and Russians I've seen are very puzzled and exhausted, and I can't say I blame them. Honestly, as an American, I'm kind of more scared of China. They're a bit more unpredictable, and the distance factor is also at play (West Coast here). And I won't lie, I don't fully understand, but India allying with Russia means that they are in a way allying with China, right? We all know about the relationship between India and China, what in all bless is going on?! Ultimately, stay safe everyone! ETA: wording
@@secretname4190 Which is why I'm so confused. I know their history with Russia, but this stance is just so weird to me. Like, it counteracts itself, if that makes sense.
Thank you for your work Proffesor James. I'm wondering what are your thoughts on EU and NATO pressuring Serbia to implement sanctions against Russia (something that unsurprisingly isn't very popular in Serbia). I must admit I was very distraught yesterday when I heard about the invasion and now, hearing the west criticism and calls to comply with their policies, I'm even more worried. Why won't they leave us be now that they have their peace in the Balkans and Serbia has been "tamed"?
It's stupid. We Serbs will never go against Russia. Never. They helped us during the Serbian revolution, in 1914, 1999, and are still helping us to this day. What has been west done to us? They invaded and massacred thousands in 1914 and 1941, started a war in 1991, bombed us in 199i and kidnapped our most precious land - Kosovo.
@@user-tj2dj7vq2x That's what worries me. We will get fucked for no fault of our own
Seriously, can we stop with this tedious mindless Russophilia. Most educated Serbs I have ever met will say that Russia has in fact been a blight on Serbia. As fur saying the West has done nothing, the EU and other Western countries have been by far the biggest aid donors to Serbia. Russia has given next to no assistance to the country. And you mention NATO Boko big, but show absolutely no acknowledgement of the disastrous policies of Milošević that led to that conflict. Really, it is so depressing to hear Serb nationalists trot out this rubbish. I know Serbia extremely well. I have close personal and professional ties to the country. But you do it no favours by acting as an apologist for Putin in this way.
Thanks. I do understand the position that Serbia is in. However, it is really poor at getting its message across. Unfortunately, the knee jerk Russophilia of so many Serbs in public fora only cements the international view that the country is an apologist for Putin. The sad thing is that Russia really isn’t a great friend of Serbia. It never has been.
@@JamesKerLindsayThank you for your reply. I do agree with what you said and I wasn't trying to defend Milosevic's policies, but as far as I've seen the majority or a big part of the population is pro-russian (not saying if its good or bad, I'm just saying what I see and hear). My comments might have come off wrong. I meant that today the EU and NATO has pretty much everything they set out to achieve in the former Yugoslavia and it seems, by the way some officials communicate, that despite that Serbs are still the enemy. I understand that Serbia has many internal problems, but to the people some EU statements might come off as demands (for example the recent sanction calls which are currently the main topic in my area). I'm looking to get informed. Once again thank you for your work.
Do you think that Russia can divide Ukraine after taking control, and then releasing the western half and keeping the eastern?
UK defence minister subtly hinted the UK will be supporting and propping up the resistance in Ukraine. He didn't want to give away too much detail for security reasons, but said the UK has ways of supporting the resistance even if Zelenksy is overthrown.
James, I saw one notable absence from your analysis, what about Moldova? It's case is essentialy the same as the Baltics except they have the breakaway region of Transnistira and are not a NATO member. If there is a 2nd country that will fall after Ukraine, it will certainly be Moldova. What do you think Moldova should do?
Moldova should try to reunify with Romania ASAP to get de facto admittance into NATO and the EU. As to how they should go about doing this, im not sure the situation in Transnistira complicates laws significantly.
@@user-vs2fx3ng5w Maybe they should negociate with the Romanian president. Then recognise Transnistira's independenece with an official act. And 10 minutes later unify with Romania with an official act. That would solve the Transnistira issue and keep Moldova out of danger. The question is whether the president or government are allowed to do that.
An absolutely horrific few days. I know the possibility of it happening has increased over time but it doesn't make it any less shocking to actually see. In your opinion how much of Ukraine do you think/ expect Russia to be able to hold?
Prof James do you think the US and EU sanctions to Russia for recognized the independence of the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk has lead and force the Russian to attack Ukraine? Its very clear that Putin had two options, plans for war and talk at the same time, but I think the reason Putin choice war is because he view the US and EU sanctions has shut down future hopes for peaceful talks. What is your thought on the matter? Biden must know this too, and why does he want to see Russia attacking Ukraine. Could this have anything to do with selling their own gas to EU?
Would love a video on Finland & Swden. Not in Nato, but are part of EU. I'm quite worried.
Fasinating James, thank you
I agree with much of this but there won't be many questions about who takes the seat at the UN for the same reason South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Northern Cyprus and Transdniestria are not represented at the UN - countries basically don't support violent annexations bc it might happen to them...
I'd like to know what average russians think about this. What's their opinion on the invasion, on Ukraine, on Ukranians, on the Ukranian goverment, on Putin, on NATO, on the EU, etc?
Hard to tell, but I heard that about 70% support Putin.
before the invasion, polls said that only around 43% of Russians supported war in Ukraine
A lot of mixed opinions, I guess. Even Russia’s spy chief was asking Putin to give one more chance to Ukraine but he was absolutely terrified. So there’s much opposition to the invasion even within the government but they’re scared to state it publicly. There are some videos of anti war Russians protesting in major Russian cities and being arrested for it.
I'm from Russia and I think that the war is the most critical political mistake of russian govt since 1991. Obviously the people who made the decision thought that there is no other choice left, and the alternative would be the full scale war with nato. But again I think this is a mistake on their side that is hard to explain. This war is a crime and I think the people who made this decision should be removed from power and face a military court eventually.
most russians don’t really know what happens because russian goverment names this «special military operation » instead of war (total absurd) and russian DoD doesnt reveal any information about troops loss. And huge propaganda ofc
Amazing to watch old videos back when people believed that Russia had a functioning military
I want to share my quick thoughts on the future implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, particularly on Professor Ker-Lindsay's points on a new Cold War and a similarly feared invasion of Taiwan by China. Just like in the last Cold War from 1945 to 1991, I envision the world being divided into two spheres of influence of democracies led by the US on one side and autocracies led by Russia and China on the other. As a person of Filipino origin, I have a genuine fear that if Beijing decides to invade Taiwan, the Philippines could be among the next targets for a Chinese invasion. It is frankly disheartening to see that we're regressing back decades to an era where great powers engage in acts of territorial conquest through violent means. Only time will tell how this moment that we're living through regardless of wherever we are in the world, would be analyzed in the textbooks of history.
Can I ask, why do you fear in particular a Chinese invasion of the Philippines? Putting aside the justification for such an action in this day and age, there is at least a historical connection and precedence for China's territorial claims against Taiwan. As far as I am aware (and I will admit to little specific knowledge on the issue), no such similar claims/history exist in relation to the Philippines. Is this accurate?
Is there any historical evidence to support your view that China will want to invade the Philippines? Assuming you are right, what benefit can China get out of the Philippines? It would be a burden instead. Taiwan is part of China and has always been. Why should China give up a part of its sovereign territory just because the US say so? Will Philippine give independence to Mindanao, a Muslim dominated state of majority catholic Philippines?
Id like to ask the OP the same question, why phillipines in particular? But wasnt taiwan an independent state for a very long time before the qing dynasty? It was only successfully sincised after the chinese civil war yes?
@@AmanKumarPadhy Taiwan has always been part of China long before the Qing Dynasty. Look at where Taiwan is located. Only 150 km away from mainland China. Look at the people of Taiwan. They are also Han Chinese similar to that of mainland China. They speaks the same language and share the same culture. They migrated to Taiwan from Fujian Province in mainland China many year ago. Even the US recognized Taiwan as part of China....Why waste time arguing...?
You have flushed out a few beijing trolls -- humongous hugo, eymeera osaka, pirate king 22017. They swarm all over western social media but ban Westerners from theirs (the few who bothered to learn chinese)
11:30 as a Cypriot I do not think we will ever join NATO. Mainly because Turkey will veto our entry.
Oh most certainly will. Childishness is a common trait of "bulky" neighbors
I would think Georgia would be the next target. There is already a Russian presence and it's a non NATO member
Moldova first, they will use the troops they have on the ground in Ukraine for that.
First of all, this was another great analysis professor. This is a rather sad turnout of the events and a beginning of a new Cold War. A small scale invasion was to be expected but a full scale invasion of entire country is a really surprising development. First of all there is no discussion about the fact that Russia broke international law. They are clearly aggressors in all of this and the victims are poor people of Ukraine who are now dying and whose homes are burning. Sadly this could all be avoided whit a little bit more common sense and pragmatism from all sides. Now I would like to share my opinions and insights in motivations and mistakes of all three sides of this conflict, that is Russia, Ukraine and West. This will be a bit long. As far as Russian motivation for all of this, in my humble opinion it is a geostrategic. Putin seas NATO as a hostile alliance to Russia, and Ukraine as part of NATO would be in case of any future conflict between Russia and NATO a fatal disadvantage for Russia. Sadly since the collapse of Soviet Union there was not one instance where NATO took the Russian interests in consideration, but it has almost always acted against the Russian interests. The most dangerous precedent was a NATO intervention against Yugoslavia in Kosovo War against approvement of UN Council. In Putin’s mind it has showed that the NATO will intervene when it deems it necessary for its own interests irrelevant of UN Council or international law. Now Kosovo War and independence is even today very controversial topic and I don’t want to discussed it here any further. There is a good video about it at this Chanel which I recommend. The fact is that this created a precedent for Putin and justification for his own interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. So this together with NATO expansion eastwards reinforced the Putin’s idea that NATO is there to get him. And it must be said that this is not only his opinion in Russia. Most Russians seas NATO as hostile power and even many opposition leaders in Russia have a negative view on NATO. This is actually not very surprising taking in consideration two last great invasions of Russia in 20th century, especially Operation Barbarossa in WW2 and devastating effect that it had on Soviet Union and Russian collective psyche. So the Russians are really anxious about any possible hostile force on there western borders. Also since Putin is effectively dictator NATO is a really good distraction for domestic problems that Russia faces and that are the real source of growing opposition to his regime in Russia. So any real of perceived NATO provocation is really good justification for his totalitarian regime to Russian people. Nevertheless I do believe that this current escalation of Ukrainian crisis was a last resort for him, and that he did wanted to avoid it, and with some assurances from either the West or from Ukraine that Ukraine will not join NATO this invasion could be avoided. But these assurances were not given and we are here now. As for the future we are now in a new Cold War. As for Baltic States they are save, since they are in NATO. Putin is a dangerous man but he is not an idiot and he knows that attack on NATO member means World War 3 and that he will not risk. But regarding Sweden and Finland I really hope they will remain neutral, cause a possibility that they could join NATO could antagonize him and there is no telling what could happen. Sadly I believe that Putin’s Russa has no future in a long run. It is an oppressive regime that is build on unsustainable foundations. Whit time it’s people will became only more pure and more miserable until they don’t rise up again in some violent revolution and topple this regime as they did before. There population is shrinking on alarming rate, and many who are smart and educated enough are fleeing to the west. Now concerning the Ukraine they are the ones who deserve our sympathy and are true victims of geopolitical games between two far mightier players that is between Russia and NATO. But seeing these images of Kyiv in flames and those faces of refugees I can’t but feel a bit anger of have they handled this entire situation. First task of any government is to provide peace and stability to its population and that means to avoid a war, especially a war like this one that you cant win and that will left you devastated. Ever since Euromaidan they showed no effort to avoid confrontation with Russia. We have to be honest here in the west despite our sympathies that are, rightfully with the Ukrainians, that a Minsk agreement was not implemented from Ukrainian side. Instead of trying to integrate the secessionist peacefully they tried to resolve the crisis militarily. Instead of respecting the rights of Russian minority and Russian language, there rights were actively curtailed and suppressed. Now it is understandable a antagonistic feelings of majority of Ukrainian population toward Russia considering the events that have transpired in there country. But the responsibility of the government is to take actions that are not popular but are necessary for stabile future of you country. Not to ride the populistic and nationalistic wave to gain popularity as many Ukrainian politicians did. What is even more sadder is that the really had a lessens from a recent history. They could see what happens when you antagonize Putin on example of Georgia. They also could learn how to play smart with Russa on example of Finland. Finland was stuck between NATO and Soviet Union, that was far more prone to interventions and aggressions that modern Russia. Finland came out from cold war as stabile democracy and prosperous nation. And when it joined EU she could enjoy full benefits of membership. Sadly the Ukrainian politicians were not up to the task of navigating these dangerous waters, and Ukrainian people now suffers. Speaking of incompetent politicians that brings me to the West. I really am not sure what did we expected or what did we wanted. For 8 Years we were supporting Ukrainians in there confrontation with Putin. We sent some weapons, what we sent more were mixed messages, that we will stand with Ukraine and that an Invasion will not be tolerated but at the same time that there will not be military confrontation with Russia. We implemented sanctions that didn’t do anything significant, and at the same time we continued to buy a Russian gas. These threats to Putin and so called hard stance bring votes. Our politicians know that, cause people love to see how our prosperous and free nation will stand against oppression and tyranny. The problem comes when the other side seas you bluff and test you. And now what. Our thoughts and prayers are with Ukraine but our soldier stay in their basis and the Ukrainian people will suffer. We will lament them, support them, put the Ukrainian flags on our Facebook profiles and that’s it. We will not go in war against Russia, cause our politicians, despite their tough words and sometimes idiotic statements, are in fact advised by some people that are not crazy. People that know that war of Russia and NATO in this moment, would probably mean global suicide. They known that since the start of this conflict. Putin also knew that. But we continued to send mixes signals to Russia because of beforementioned reasons. But that is not what bothers me. What bothers me is that a couple months before the star of the Russian Aggression on Ukraine, Putin reached to us. They proposed an agreement demanding a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, and some honestly saying unrealistic things like retreat of NATO from east and even an expulsion of some NATO members that share a border with Russia. Now this demands are unrealistic, but that is how negotiation goes. You set your realistic goal, which in this case I believe was a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, and then you set some unrealistic goals so that you can settle with opposing party on your realistic goals. Unfortunately no one on the West event tried to negotiate. Our position stayed I would say rather idealistic, and that is that Ukraine is an independent country and that they can choose their security policy. No one tried to negotiate. And now we are here. I cant but wounder what have we accomplished. The Ukraine is good as gone. Our tough words will be there for Ukrainian people to suffer. And we are in a new Cold War. I just don’t understand why are we here where we are now. Maybe will future show something that I missed. Maybe someone tried to negotiate whit Putin and gave him a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO but that his further demands were unacceptable, I don’t know. I just know that as it looks to me now. West has spoken tough but we were bluffing. Putin knew that we were bluffing. He called our bluff and offered us a compromise, we continued to bluff, so he invaded and the Ukrainians are now paying our bluff. And I really hate the global reality in which a have awoken to on February 24th.
I don’t ever have to comment on this silly war, just copy/paste what you wrote good Sir. Being from former Yugoslavia, and being a Slav, it is really difficult for me to follow this war as my guts have turned so many times in the last few days, and yet, I am trying to gather information facing demons from the past. Thank you for taking the time to write such a long and great comment. Peace
Black humor: Why do Russian troops don't enter to major Ukrainian cities - save social distance?
James Thanks For Great Analysis Of The Situation in Ukraine. There is Strong Feeling Among Neutral Observers That Ukraine Got in This Situation As A Result Of There Failures To implement The Minsky's Agreement. Any Truth On That?
Thanks. I do agree that the Ukrainian Government had made serious errors in its handling of the situation. It should have shown a much greater willingness to accept a devolved autonomous status for the areas. However, this cannot be used as a justification for the wholesale invasion of the country and moves to overthrow the democratically elected government. This is really about Putin's wish to control the country.
@@JamesKerLindsay Prof. I would like to hear your opinion on the failure of the Ukrainian government to grant internal self-determination to the Donbass peoples and how this is viewed in international law.
Do you think that Russia may only try to keep a portion of Ukraine? Maybe the land east of the Dnieper plus Kherson and Odessa? This would link Russia to Transnistria, which would grant some leverage over Moldova.
Operation reach could be judged by looking at attack direction of flanking forces. I mean - Russians already on the west bank of Dniepr. By looking at the battle map, I would say - 2/3 of Ukraine under Russian control. With no intentions to seize Lviv and other western regions. But - whats left of Ukraine will be cut from Black Sea and all industrial centers be gone as well
As a African I really hate the idea of international piece because the world system we have right now is only peaceful for the west and it’s allies everywhere else is either poor or surrounded by countries that are collapsing I think it’s really high time Westerners take a step back and look at what’s going on and say maybe we need to look at the international order and maybe we need to split power a little more evenly
You are wrong. With respect, quality of life in every meaningful measure has increased exponentially in the third world in the last 80 years. Look at child mortality, like expectancy, gdp per capita, etc. literally anything. And as far as splitting power more evenly, there is no way to do that. Countries are powerful because they have the economy, demographics, and military to be powerful. There isn’t a way to artificially give a weak country “power” that others will respect if it chooses to test such power.
@@JohnSmith-dj2ml bro I live in Liberia I see what’s going on with my own eyes idc what the numbers say they are not true only people making money are the western backed politicians
@@JohnSmith-dj2ml also there are ways to give weak countries power look how the us and uk made Israel powerful
What about Finland? Could they be pushed closer to NATO after seeing what is going on in the Ukraine? Could that escalate tensions with Russia possibly leading to armed conflict between Russia and an EU nation? They fought a bitter war in 1939 after all.
Thank you sir, for a concise, rational and informative narrative, appreciated.
Thank you so much Marc. I know that it is a fast moving situation but I thought it might be useful to add some immediate thoughts on what we are seeing.
How on earth Russia managed to bully Ireland ? 😳 What really worries me is that if all that works for Putin others will jump on the trend technically braking the international system
Naval exercises off the coast or Ireland & buzzing Irish airspace with strategic bombers.
@@gregs7562 unbelievable..
Too late for that, NATO bombing Yugoslavia in 1999 already made a precedent and violated the international law by attacking a sovereign country without approval from the UN.
@@partizanbgd0113 kinda what happens when it's state back ethnic cleansing 😉
@@gregs7562 The west can always find an excuse. WMD in Iraq, remember?
It's interesting to watch this today. I think Ukraine has surprised so many people with its heroic resistance. Many of us completely underestimated the Ukrainians. The war crimes committed by Russia since its invasion makes any talk of abandoning Ukraine unimaginable now.
I see it was surprise to russians as well as to westerners. Guys, we ukrainians will never give up, even in case when russia use nukes, we suffered enough under their rule and if we lose, it will end for ukrainians. Also i surprised about thoughts that Kyiv will fall after 3 days. That's just imposible! Look at battle for Mosul (2017). Coalition taked the city with pop 1.5 mil. after 9 mounths of fighting. With full air domination and artillery. Witch isis does't had. In Ukraine even encirclement operation of Kyiv(that 2 times bigger than Mosul by population and 4 times bigger by area) is extremly hard. To take our capital, russia needs full mobilisation and years to do that.
China stepped back their level of alliance with Russia with the press. They clarified that the China-Russia relationship is based on non-alliance, non-interference and non-critical instead of China supports Russia. They said they support Ukraine and their soveign rights including not recognizing the Donbas region, this is in line with their view on taiwan as well. But they are also saying whatever Russia is doing in Ukraine is between Russia and Ukraine, so i feel that they have actually kept quite consistent with their foriegn policy so far. Also i believe China is very happy, if NATO enters the war full scale China just have to stay put and they may have a chance of global hegemony just like how US stayed mostly out of WW2 and emerged as the global hegemon cos it didn't suffer a lot of damage.
Kyiv, please. Not Kiev. We shouldn't enable and legitimise the murderous aggressors in any way. Thanks for the video. 💛💙
James, can Russia be removed as a Permanent UNSC member for this?
Thanks. Excellent question. No, it can't. There's no provision in the Charter for any permanent member of the Security Council to be removed.
@@JamesKerLindsay thank you for the answer James! That is very tough to acknowledge and understand for me (and I think a lot of people as well) that there would simply be no provision in the charter for stripping roles within the UN for egregious actions such as declaring an unjust war on their neighbor.
@@JamesKerLindsay Wasn't the seat given to the USSR initially? How then can Russia alone claim the seat
@@nativetorontonian the seat for china was originally held by the ROC which now only controls Taiwan but was switched to the PRC which controls mainland china because that was viewed as the “true” china
I thought the same thing. They should be removed!! They should also be penalized in the UN general assembly in some manner.
War is a terrible ordeal for ordinary people who are forced to go through it. A great pity that serious diplomatic efforts were not pursued. So we should be concerned for the people taking the brunt of this. Interesting that we never hear anything about the treatment of the people of the Donbass since the illegal coup in 2014. The anti-Russian language measures taken by the new regime, the missile bombardments and the loss of 14-15 thousand lives. A UN report has shown that over 80% of the shelling came from the Ukrainian army, so we can conclude that the people of the Donbass took a similar percentage of deaths. Is it not shameful that we hear nothing in the press of this disgraceful treatment of people in their own land, but it does not suit the interests of our side.
Your analyses are always on point and fundamentally respectful of the core Human elements. Thank you for your work, Professor.
Thank you for this analysis on the situation from multiple angles - including the role of China and the future of NATO. The situation is very worrying - and yes, I have Ukrainian friends who are extremely worried and anxious with most of their families are under bombardment. Overall, I am a little disappointed with the level of sanctions and I feel we haven't gone far enough - but I can also understand that it is easier for me to say from France as our energy dependence is less and same cannot be said of many of the other member states - the SWIFT payments mechanism expulsion is the only sanction that could have a real impact but the EU seems to be against it for now. And yes, it is Putin who is doing this and not Russia - and the way to stop this is the hope that the average Russians start protesting against the regime. Even assuming Russia has a military victory, it is not an area that they would be able to govern - not to mention the disgusting propaganda that the Russian establishment has been pushing. On that note - I wonder about some of the dangerous precedents this has set - can any country legitimately move their troops into a region by recognising a separatist force as an independent state (like what Russia did in Donetsk and Louhansk) ? Other hawkish countries could easily deploy this strategy or recognising a separatist movement and then move their own troops in. Is there any precedent to this ?
The UN truly is pathetic. The fact that we have to hope for powerless citizens to rise up against the 2nd most powerful country in the world is sad. We will just have to wait for Putin to die of old age. In that time, Ukraine will become a permanent Russian puppet. The UN is powerless and NATO doesn’t care.
Yes. The precedent is Chekoslovakia 1938.
I really can't think of a precedent for moving forces into a region after recognizing its separatist government. There is, on the other hand, plenty of precedent for moving forces into a region *before* recognizing its separatist government. And that's really a better description of what Putin did. I don't believe for a second that 2022 is the first year in which the Russian military was present in the Donbas. Some have been there covertly from the moment it looked like the Ukrainian government might crush the separatists, maybe even since the start of the separatist insurrection.
I think every reasonable person has the same worries My greatest one is that UN will end up like the league of nations...
Can you do a video explaining Pakistans visit to Russia while the invasion was happening? Very interesting. Also as to why India has not condemned Putin
India wants Russia as a potential ally against China. It would be unwise for them to unnecessarily antagonize Russia. There condemnations won’t have any effect whatsoever. Realpolitik
@@JohnSmith-dj2ml Russia are literally allies with China???
@@zccau2316 very uneasy allies. Have been since the Cold War. If it weren’t for there USA they would be clawing each other’s eyes out. Official Chinese diplomats openly claim Vladivostok and the rest of the Russian Far East as Chinese territory that was stolen form them via unequal treaties. The two powers are also fighting over who gets de facto control over Central Asia. They have many overlapping ambitions and desired spheres of influence
Georgia has been quite keen on joining NATO. Would like to know if this event will quicken it or will NATO still not consider Georgia's application?
A country not fully in control of their territory usually wouldn't be considered for membership. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are definitely not coming under Georgian control anytime soon. Unless NATO drastically changes their policy, not gonna happen.
@@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022 Ouhh, I thought that only applies to EU membership.
Prof can you kindly do a video on why Russia has invaded Ukraine?
Had Ukraine fallen easily and the Sanctions had been weak, then Russia had already as a minimum invaded Moldova and Georgia maybe more by now. But I’m also convinced that the PRC had invaded Taiwan, if the weather permitted. I think the Ukrainians and EU’s strong response, have made them think it over a bit more.
Oh, you came to the Taiwan thing later.
Guess this video are from before we know just how badly the Russian army performed.
This conflict must have made the CCP unsure if the PLA, PLAAF and PLAN even could manage to invade Taiwan, even if the US and Japan didn’t send military support other then ammunition and weapons. Also, most have made the Taiwanese think that it’s worth fighting. They might have a better army and more advanced weapons, while Taiwans landmass are much smaller and the population are a bit more then half. But Taiwan anyway is a harder task. It requires an amphibious landing, the Taiwanese Air Force are really strong and their AS and AA systems are much stronger and they have a decent amount of cruise missiles.
They can't conduct a major amphibious invasion at the drop of a hat And the preparation required would be identified in advance just like how we recognized Russian buildup
Brilliant video as always, it would be great to explain how the NORD STREAM 2 influenced the current situation, how funny that after Olaf Scholz got into power the dynamics in Europe and Russia changed.
Thank you so much Javier. It is good that you bring up Nord Stream. I didn't cover this. But I was thinking that Scholz has already shown himself to be rather more decisive than I think many expected. It would be really interesting to know what any German viewers think.
Only a non German speaker may come up with an idea like this. The information that was produced fir the anglosphere showed either a lack of understanding or a lack of research.
@Prof James Ker-Lindsay It was always clear what would happen in case of a war. We often see that non Germsn speaker judge politics based on their government without speaking German or simply asking a German. Since 1975 in the middle of the cold war the delivery of Russisn gas to European countries has begun. It always worked while one took precaution to have several month reserve. What people often forget Germany would hqve been the battlefield if Warsaw pact ever attacked So living with Russia and knowing that million of Russians aren't far away to overrun us while German and NATO forces where present everywhere in Germany.
Professor, I see many people, especially from outside the main Western circle, talking about the inevitability of conflict because of NATO expansion. It sometimes feels like apologism for Putin, but they still raise some interesting points. Some of the arguments I see floating around are that that allowing further advancement of NATO would open up the possibility of support for internal dissidence against the Russian central government (with mentions of Serbia, Lybia, Syria and the Euromaidan) , that Ukraine is too geopolitically important for Russia to let drift into a hostile sphere of influence, and, centrally to both previous points, that reconciliation between Russia and NATO was never pushed by the latter after the Cold War. It'd be interesting if you could explore this sort of views and their historical validity.
If it wasn't for the expansion of NATO Putin would already be in the Baltics.
@Thomas Lauren 🤣👌
You mentioned geopolitics on this channel? kzhead.info
A balanced and thorough overview of at least one side of the story.
Frankly I am not going to give any credence, let alone justification, for the other side of this story. I have been critical of Western policy when necessary. However, I am in absolutely no doubt that this is an illegal war of aggression waged by Russia that is aimed at denying a sovereign state the right to determine its own future, including the right to join an alliance that would have protected that same sovereign state from an attack we are now seeing!
@@JamesKerLindsay I am wondering if I was teaching students would it be a defensible position to say - this is the only side of the argument that I am prepared to discuss, there will be no debate on alternative perspectives. I think they might be entitled to feel that their ability to pursue the truth in class is being compromised. There are credible alternative views out there, albeit in a minority in the West. For example, Professor John Meirsheimer of the University of Chicago has put forward the view that the US and NATO are to blame for the Ukraine crisis, and he does so with considerable academic rigor. I say this respectfully.
@@gracchus7782 Your failure to consider another point of view on NATO expansion is the same failure that has led to this crisis. The West has said to Russia, we are not listening to you, we ignore your concerns, we can do what we like irrespective of how you are affected. This is the same supreme arrogance that is destructive of interpersonal relations as well as international peace.
Before we so quickly pivot to China-Taiwan, perhaps we can backtrack on the issue you mentioned in closing. Consider a scenario where this tragic moment serves to awaken a critical mass of the Russian population from sleepwalking within their authoritarian state. The state control of the narrative in Russia was always leakier than China's with their Great Firewall (as well as linguistic and cultural barriers). All of the collateral fallout for the Russian populace from this seemingly isolated event (not to mention the deep people-to-people and historical ties) may push the society to the tipping point. Why so quickly overlook the not-insignificant protests against the war in Russia and fast forward to the post-Putin era? The longer the Ukrainians are able to resist, the more pressure builds up within Russia. Direct military is out but absolutely everything else should be on the table to counter Russia. This has the world's attention so the possibility of a black swan event is not zero. Of course, our thoughts have to be with the Ukrainians at the moment. Truly inspirational, heroic even.
Thanks. Good points. Things are undoubtedly unfolding fast. But perhaps not as we might have expected. 24 hours on from the video, it is interesting that the story is indeed turning more and more to Russia and Putin. The big worry is how Putin counters this. The harder it is for Russian forces to win, the worry must be that he will resort to more extreme methods to secure victory - and this protect his regime. Very worrying.
Is a comparison between the current absurdity of this conflict and the afghanistan invasion by the Soviet Union suitable or fitting? After all, the Soviet Union tried to replace Amin with Kamal and that didn't work out... The conflict in Afghanistan was less hated by the workers of the Soviet Union than the current conflict by the people of Russia, does that mean that the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan had more support by humanity than the current conflict?
This reminds me of Sudetenland nearly a century ago… indeed worrying times. Thanks a lot, James, for your thoughts on the situation!
Didn't realise anyone would still be alive to remember sudetenland fair play🙄
@@Ray67456 The Queen was 12 at the time, so I would venture that she remembers it.
What area you talking about? I have never met one Irishman who is afraid of Russia. Being neutral has worked very well for Ireland and I don't think they should join any alliance.
You didn’t seem to get my point. This isn’t what Ireland may have though even a month ago. This is about now. Today. Everything has changed. I think there will be people in Ireland asking whether neutrality is the right option anymore. That’s my point.
I’m curious what you think about the possibility of Russia invading other non-NATO members after this. Moldova, Georgia and even Azerbaijan seem like possibilities
Thanks. I don’t think it will go against Azerbaijan or Armenia and it has what it needs from Georgia. But I could see a move against Moldova.
Would you please enlighten me on three of my query? 1. Was there any solid treaty or accord or even verbal accession between USSR or Russia and West during breakdown of Soviet where west promised Mikhael Gorvachev about future non-advancement of NATO to further eastern Europe? 2. Why was Russia sort of reaction-less when all of 3 Baltic states Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia entered into NATO in 2004 under the era of same Vladimir Putin? Why military presence in western border didn’t bother Moscow back then? 3. Why R.T. Erdogan is acting weirdly in recent? On one hand he gives open space to Russia through Strait of Bosporus & Dardanelles. On the other hand he says only sanctions is not enough to stop Russian "aggression". What is his motive? What he want to gain from this conflict? Some sort of attention? Thank you. 🙂
2) It did bother them. They couldn't do anything about it back then. They were still recovering from the 90's
1. No. Many people now try to find it and cannot do it...
2. There were big changes in Russian external policy. Initially Putin wanted to cooperate with the West even with plans of Russia joining NATO. Munich's speech of Putin and after it Euromaidan marked big changes in Russian external policy, but it happened after 2004. Baltic states were lucky and fast enough. Right choice for their sovereignty.
Thanks Prof. Hindsight is much easier to analyze isn't it. The one problem I have in all this, and I've never seen anyone over the years challenge him on it is, he always talks and acts like NATO has some kind of recruiters going out and recruiting all of these countries to join NATO and oppose Russia which couldn't be further from the truth. The simple truth is that all of these former USSR countries are running to NATO only proves one thing, there is only one aggressor, only one bully, and only one psychopath in the region. Yet over 20 years he has been allowed to direct that narrative to the point where no one questions it.
The best case scenario I can see at the moment is that Russia seizes half the Country splitting it into two regions East (Russian) /West (Ukranian. Both sides line up on their sides and a ceasfire is declared. Russia then negotaites with Ukraine and says it will withdraw but will take (liberate) the Donbas Region which will then be Russian. A hefty military presence is then put in place along that line and things calm down.
I don't know if Russia will seize alot of the country but if the capital falls the war is basically over and if they landlock the southern part that will it.
"Strong russian military", yeah, this aged like milk in 2 days.
While I would certainly like to be proved wrong, don’t be so sure! Evidence suggests that Russia has been holding back to a degree. Faced with growing condemnation, but unable to back down, it seems likely that that strength will be be displayed in the most brutal way possible.
While I would certainly like to be proved wrong, don’t be so sure! Evidence suggests that Russia has been holding back to a degree. Faced with growing condemnation, but unable to back down, it seems likely that that strength will be be displayed in the most brutal way possible.
Good assessment, horrible situation. Two big factors will be whether the Russians are going to successfully achieve the objectives in a reasonable time, and what sort of insurgence the Ukrainians can muster if Russia succeeds - both will influence Putin's hold on power in Russia.
What is the risk that Russia will set her eye on invading other former Soviet states in the Caucuses such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc.?
4:50, It's a very difficult message to bear, I just can't believe we can sit idly by and allow Russia to defeat Ukraine.
What will happen if Russia continue the invasion in to Moldova?
Since this a channel on nationhood and statehood, how about a video on governments and nations in exile. e.g. if a puppet Putin government is installed in Ukraine the legalities of a Ukrainian government in exile. I always find very moving the fact that formed the current Polish government he considers itself the successor of the Polish government in exile in London the last of the governments in exile that found itself in London during the second world war.
Thank you so much. This is a really great suggestion. Hopefully, it won’t come to this in Ukraine’s case. But this will raise a lot of important questions.
I cannot understand how Putin could think that occupying Ukraine would be a good thing for Russia.
You and me both!
This is an excellent synopsis of a very fluid situation, and you are right to highlight the many people who are being killed and suffer because of Putin's actions. I share you concern for the Baltics, but I am also very worried about Moldova. If Putin manages to set up some sort of puppet state in Ukraine, this will connect Russian-controlled territory to Transnistria, and it would not be that surprising to see him finally recognize that breakaway region too. There are already Russian "peacekeepers" stationed there, and as Moldova is a former Soviet republic as well, I can imagine Putin convincing himself he had some sort of duty to take all of Moldova as well. Anyway, thank you for your video, as always!
And it also looks perplexing while it doesn't appear odd not recognise People's Republic of China as a representative country of Chinese people but you recognise only Taiwan as a genuine representative of Chinese people-- What rational explanation can anyone give ?
I read a very intresting article from Henry Kissinger about Ukraine back in 2014. It proved prophetic unfortunately. This disaster could and should have been avoided...
Thanks James. Another excellent summary on Russia's invasion of Ukraine that raises a lot of questions. In my view, when a nation makes the same mistake,the results cannot be different. The Soviet Union collapsed because it became impossible to carry the weight of all the nations in the bloc. The invasion of Hungary,Poland etc all failed because they had to withdraw. Equally,occupation of Ukraine will be many times more cumbersome than Afghanistan and Russia will have to concede defeat. I therefore see another Gorbachev emerging in Russia because the current sanctions will hurt Russia that is a lot more integrated with the West than the Soviet Union. I also believe that the so called cozy relationship between Russia and China too will face huge headwinds. China cannot afford to decouple with the west because this is critical for its own growth and keeping its Billion people satisfied. Therefore, China will start to distance itself from Russia and this too will hasten change in the Kremlin. Ukraine invasion has now made Europe stronger and more unified and therefore Russia's expectation to extend this to other countries will fail.Therefore,the west should let this play out and allow Russia to stay this ill-chosen course
Putin could not stand by and watch Russians ethnicity cleansed in eastern Ukraine .You assume Putin wants to control Ukraine ? He has said he doesn’t but what is clear now Russian has taken a large part of Ukraine and will never give back .You need to understand Chinese foreign policy they don’t get involved in other’s business and try to have a friendly relationship with every country. With a population more than the g7 countries and a growing middle class it’s the west that need China not the other way around