The 2024 PECOTA Projections for MLB are pretty wild, with some interesting predictions for the 2024 MLB Season. Do you agree with the 2024 PECOTA Projections?
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Business Email: marc@slashmgmt.com
Marc posting 2 videos in a week is unheard of
Us OG’s remember when this was the norm 😢
@@BKrispy1 fr
I’d say a lot of it is because the offseason has been slow the past few years
@@BKrispy1 real
🤣🤣🤣
That nationals prediction is criminal, for a team that nearly went 500 in the second half and is trending in the right direction, I give them at least 70 wins, and if crews turns out to be that guy, maybe even 75
Their best players are CJ Abrams, a 90 wRC+ hitter with -8 OAA, and Lane Thomas, a 109 wRC+ right fielder with -3 OAA. Adding Jesse Winker and Joey Gallo does not make them better, they are as replacement level as replacement level gets.
NGL I see them as a sleeper but I feel like it will be a season of extremes either second in the NL east or last
@@alexisborden3191cj abram’s broke the franchise record for stolen bases in a single season and james wood and dylan crews are getting called up later
@@roadkill989 Stolen bases aren't as valuable as you seem to think they are, and that number was 47, which is kind of low for a franchsie record anyways, Abrams was a 2.1 fWAR player last year. James Wood is projected to play 16 games, and Dylan Crews for 56 games, with 0.4 fWAR. If those are your best most noteworthy players, your team has serious problems literally everywhere.
@@alexisborden3191 i’m not saying we’re a playoff contender. we have young players who can breakout in a big way. for example, cj abrams oaa is only bad cause his arm strength isn’t good but he’s still growing into his body and putting on some weight and muscle
Despite the Braves winning 6 consecutive division titles this is the first year it has projected them to win the title
I imagine the reason for this is the projection system treats every team as the same, but teams like the Braves or Rays or Astros or Dodgers have good player development, so overperform relative to projections that expect Reds or Cubs, or Blue Jays level player development.
@@alexisborden3191that makes sense those are three of the most analytic driven teams in baseball, so surprise the analytics favors those teams
@@maddog4269 No, my point is that it doesn't favor them, that's why they do better than the projections say.
One and done again?
They DID win the WS in 2021 though.
Question Marc, you doing Offseason grades this year?
I'm not that shocked about the Yankees win projection, but the O's losing 15 more games than last season seems crazy to me. Adding a top 5 starter to that great young core just doesn't look right at all.
Yes I agree
I agree. Orioles are not going to get worse, especially with adding Corbin Burnes.
I think it's more about how tough the East is going to be this year and the teams are going to be beating up on one another.
Its more or less saying they massively overperformed last year, which i dont think is a completely bad take. That rotation was a weakness entering last season and they did really well. Can they repeat the seasons they had last year, if not then i dont think third place at 86ish wins is a bad projection. Fun team, but im not completely surprised they're doubting them a little bit given how much that team outperformed their 2022 seasons.
@@lomakinalex If they didn't just add Burnes I'd be more willing to accept that, but he's a top 5 starter in baseball. Bradish's season wasn't a fluke if you look at his Baseball Savant page. He has the best breaking balls in baseball. GRod had his ups and downs, but once he figured out his pitch mix he was almost unhittable his last 12 starts of the season. Kremer as the 5 is solid. He has a 3.7 ERA over the last 2 seasons. Means is a bit of a question mark coming back from TJ, but he did get 4 starts in and had a 2.6 ERA, so he looked good. Even Tyler Wells, who I'm guessing is just going to get spot start work was really good. He was leading the majors in WHIP before an injury in July. They also have a guy in AAA named McDermott with absolutely filthy stuff. Batters hit just .167 off him last season in 120 innings between AA and AAA. He could kick Kremer out of the rotation early in the season.
The Dodgers actually DID win the World Series in 2020, so you're wrong when you say they haven't won it since 1988.
Yup, the year the sorry ass Mets couldn't make the playoffs with an expanded format 😅
@@DogerslLakersKingsRamsLA Maybe he's just salty, considering he IS a Mets fan. But I can sympathize with him, because I like the Mets, and my primary team has gone even longer since their last WS title than them, and both of their droughts have lasted longer than I've been alive. (I was born in 1993, seven years after the Mets last won the World Series.)
Not real. Couldn’t win a 162 game stretch World Series. Forever not a real world series
@@Supah_Penguin Maybe so, but there have been other shortened seasons before. Was the Dodgers' 1981 World Series title illegitimate because it came during a strike-shortened season?
@@Supah_Penguin clown 🤡
I'm picking 1 Over/Under in each division. AL East: Orioles Over: Last year didn't seem like a fluke to me. They seem like a genuinely great team. AL Central: Guardians Over: This is probably favorite team bias, but honestly the AL Central ones look mostly reasonable to me and we have some promising debuts this year, and I think we have a somewhat solid foundation. AL West: Athletics Under: I think they'll be absolutely pathetic again. NL East: Nationals Over: I agree with you, it's hard to imagine them collapsing that much. NL Central: Reds Over: More of a gut feeling on this one, but I like them for next year. NL West: Padres Over: Last year was really flukey with a few uncharacteristic performances and awful clutch stats. I doubt that'll happen again.
Cmon man. I’m no dodger fan but people gotta stop acting like 2020 was not a championship. Every team had a chance to win the same as the Dodgers did.
2023 pecota rankings had the world series winning rangers projected at 80 wins and 4th place lol
an unusual result does not mean a faulty projection system
@@YoshiClapz Yeah, it kinda does mean exactly that.
@@samstephens378 no it doesn’t. In a sample size of 162 games, with a projected win percent of 80/162, the probability of getting 91 wins is about 5% (according to binomial distribution). That may sound small and may seem like it’s pointing to the system’s inaccuracy, but consider how many other teams you could have looked at where the system was only off a a few wins, which it is in general. I’m not trying to say the system is perfect at estimating teams’ chances of winning 90 games, but instead just testifying to its quality.
@@CJA-jf8db The difference between 80 and 90 is not 5% , it's more like 13%.. NOBODY IS PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED.. HE'S PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF GAMES WON !! ° If a real estate agent told you he could get you a property that you desperately wanted at a 80k price... Then when you get to closing he then tells you... Oh, by the way.. the price has increased to 90k I'm sure you would have the exact same energy with the real estate agent... Oh... He's done a great job with so many of his past clients, I'll give him a pass on this deal. I DOESN'T MEAN HIS PROCESS IS FAULTY... IT'S JUST ONE OF THOSE UNPREDICTABLE THINGS THAT SOMETIMES HAPPEN 🥸🤡💩
@@CJA-jf8db No Sir... The difference between 80 and 90 is not 5% , it's 12% . He's not predicting the number of Games played, he's predicting the number of Wins. If a Real estate agent assured you that he could secure a property that you desperately wanted at a 80k price.. then when you get to closing he casually informed you... Oh By the way.. the price has increased to 90k I'm sure you'd have the exact same energy for that real estate agent. ° Oh Well, the guy is usually right .. this 10k discrepancy certainly does not mean that his process is faulty.. it's just one of those troublesome variables that sometimes happen in life 😂
As a Royals fan I feel like we will surprise some people, but the bullpen is weak even with some additions. The thing with the central is that we don’t know which team will have its players execute. We can agree with one thing and that most of the central teams have atrocious offenses.
The guy we just got today is a dawg. He's no '15 wade davis by any means but hes an additional reliable arm for that pen
I have the Brewers winning 82-85 games but still had them in third. I think they are a sleeper team with a lineup I think that can actually hit the ball but it came at the cost at our best pitchers. This will be an interesting year for us
Let me guess Your picks are this 3. Brewers 4/5 Pirates, Cubs 1/2 Reds, Cardinals 1. Reds 2. Cardinals 3. Brewers 4. Pirates 5. Cubs
@@jonathanfrimerman8855 Nah 1. Cubs 2.Cardinals 3.Brewers 4.Reds 5. Pirates
@@jonathanfrimerman8855how are the cubs 5, there defensive cieling and pitching depth alone makes them at least top 3
My Predictions: NL West 1. Dodgers- 109 (1 seed) 2. Diamondbacks- 87 (5 seed) 3. Giants- 83 4. Padres- 78 5. Rockies- 61 NL Central 1. Brewers- 87 (3 seed) 2. Cubs- 86 (6 seed) 3. Reds- 82 4. Cardinals- 79 5. Pirates- 76 NL East 1. Braves- 106 (2 seed) 2. Phillies- 91 (4 seed) 3. Mets- 80 4. Marlins- 77 5. Nationals- 73 AL West 1. Astros- 95 (2 seed) 2. Rangers- 94 (4 seed) 3. Mariners- 87 4. Angels- 67 5. A’s- 52 AL Central 1. Twins- 86 (3 seed) 2. Tigers- 80 3. Guardians- 76 4. Royals- 68 5. White Sox- 61 AL East 1. Orioles- 102 (1 seed) 2. Rays- 90 (5 seed) 3. Yankees- 89 (6 seed) 4 Blue Jays- 87 5 Red Sox- 79 - To note: Snell, Monty, Belli, Chapman, and JDM signings will change these. - I didn’t just make up a number, I actually went through and used my own formula.
Saying the tigers win that many games is wild
@@Jakester1472, just wait. Torkelson, Greene, and Skubal are gonna ball out. Feel free to come back to this comment after the season
I like almost all of this predictions but NL central i do not agree with the brewers finishing in first place they got some young talent that needs to prove themselves and Brandon woodruff is going to be missing time heck he may even miss the whole season. To me they will finish in 4th and the cubs win the division with the reds in second if they stay healthy.
@@generallukeproductions I agree those are good players with alot of potential but did you forget they have Javier baez on they're team SD well? That guy is horrible and will single handedly lose them games this season
@@Jakester1472, it’s not like I predicted them to win the World Series. Do you realize they won 78 games last year? 80 is not out of the realm of possibility.
Twins are still by far the favorite to the win the division. They didn’t need to add to get better they just need better health. A full season from Royce is big, and Correa being healthy is also massive. And if Buck is actually going to play the field. This team is amazing. I am sad they didn’t get a number 2 or 3 arm but the top 4 of this rotation is great. And people are sleeping on the bullpen. In my opinion it’s the best in all of baseball. And I like what the royals did but they are fighting for 3rd place.
I wish the Twins ownership was in a position to add payroll. Jordan Montgomery or even Blake Snell would make that team so fun.
What do you think of the Giants adding Jorge Soler? Do you think that will help bump them above the .500 season?
What the hell are you talking about? The Dodgers won the championship in 2020. They can't help it that there was a shortened season. The playoffs were still a full schedule. I didn't realize that the Dodgers were the only team trying to win it that year. That's why they don't get credit. The Dodgers just can't win. It doesn't matter regular season, nobody cares. And then the one year they win the World Series in a full playoff season people say, "Oh no, that doesn't count make up your mind. You can't have it both ways.
A longer and larger playoffs than we even have today!
Exactly! 💯
...oh and no home games
If the mets won in 2020. He would have jumping for joy...😂
The playoffs were even longer.
The Giants added Jorge Soler, Robbie Ray, Jung Hoo Lee, and looking at Matt Chapman.
Unfortunately Ray is going to be out half of the season on the IL. Definitely can still use another starter to shore things up until him and cobb recover
@@brandonsolis6911 yeah I know. We can stay in the hunt. We have enough bats. I think Bailey, Schmitt, Wilmer, Thairo, Soler and the rest of the guys will do their thing.
@@mattdennis7511 yeah I agree about our offense. I feel good about it especially now that we’ve added some pop with Soler.
Giants are my sleeper pick. they also brought in Bob Melvin. I don't think they're going to win the division but I could definitely see them sneaking into the postseason
I feel like baseball has to be the hardest to predict
Follow the pitching
Brewers in the last place without batting an eye is INSANE!!
So much young talent the hitting will improve.
@@Jacob-hy7dowhat young talent?
Crazy they have the first place team from last year in last place this year and the last place team from last year in first place I understand brewers not being as good but last and what did the cards do to have a turnaround like that
@@user-bl2ut5ei3r they're expecting the star players on st. Louis to have bounce back seasons. The Cardinals on paper are not the last place team, they underperformed as a team
One Interesting Fact is that the twins were well below .500 in Sonny Gray starts. Obviously not his fault, run support was abysmal, but just saying that the 2024 team has a decent crack at matching or exceeding the success sonny gray brought them if the run support jumps back up to what you would expect. (the w-l in sonny starts was somewhere around 14-18). Beyond that, Sonny Gray is a prime regression candidate according to both the advanced predictive metrics and his age
Did the dodgers not win the world series in 2020
I think he’s one of those “Mickey Mouse” denier trolls
@@Er059Definitely. You can bet if his Mets had won in 2020, he would be singing a different tune
@@BGV97aren’t the Mets the only team in that division that hasn’t won a World Series since the Berlin Wall came down
@Er059 162 game season vs a 60 game season, with no fans to fuel any competitive energy... the dodgers won a ring in 2020. But the FACT is that ring has a MASSIVE asterisk next to it. And if you disagree, you're the one in denial
there were fans in the NLCS and WS that year. Literally everyone had the same chance, just say you hate the Dodgers and move on from talking about a past championship. My God you guys have such a hard-on for bringing the past up. @@fullcircle8231
The Reds have improved their pitching, mainly in the bullpen. I think Abe Vigoda would predict a better win rate for the Reds than PECOTA.
Fr they had 82 wins last year and got better over the offseason. I could easily see them snagging the wild card or possibly even the division.
O’s might win closer to 110 this year. How does a team adding Corbin and Holliday go backwards from 101?
They have Craig Kimbrel instead of Felix is pretty bad
@@xXx_MakeAmericaGr8Again_xXxKimberly is an improvement. Not to mention, he is also a future Hall of Famer.
Yeah, I know Baltimore would go toe to toe with my Bravos as one of the better lineups in the League….putting them 3rd in the AL East is comical.
if u get good craig ur fine@@xXx_MakeAmericaGr8Again_xXx
@@jackkrick6936 36 year old Craig Kimbrel is not an improvement over one of the best young relievers we'd ever seen. Yeah he's a hall of famer, that doesn't mean he's a team changing talent still. He's projected for a 4.42 ERA over 55 IP by ZIPS, which is 256th among Relief Pitchers.
The Reds are so underrated. 4th? They had more wins last year, but added pitching and depth this offseason, with another year of the young guns under their belt. I see even as a minimum for this team. They could hit 90 wins.
assuming something killing the padres is not having outfielders at all when they will likely add an upgrade
Im a dodger fan, but phillies 84?!!!! Wins. 94-99
The Dodgers haven't won since 88? 2020? 🤔
Stay mad 😂
As a Rockies fan it’s a tough world we live in.
We beat the Mets and we have Nolan Jones
Sucks being a Rockies fan right now. We have Nolan Jones and our young guys may get better this year. Rockies might be DECENT this year if everything works out
@Ryouski knowing the Rockies, it won't work out 😂, I have faith when our prospects develop we will be good again, having leaders like Charlie and KB help that as well
You got the Nuggets and Avalanche so it’s not that bad if the Rockies are cheeks 😅
@@geeseoul it kinda sucks when the broncos are as well
Dodgers won a World Series a few years ago
Covid, doesn't count
The Marlins hate is crazy
Not really. Your team was very lucky in 2023 and they lost some key pieces to injury and FA.
Yes I can agree, we were lucky to make it to the wild card last year but that doesn’t mean we can’t do it again this year we acquired a bunch of new players under our new GM Peter Bendix and even if we don’t have a full year of sandy im still sure we can win 80 games or even 85 games this season
There's no way they have the same crazy record they had in 1 run games like last year. They could easily have a much worse record than last year.
@@Fly-The-W this
Lol Dodgers haven't won since 88. Guess you forgot getting cheated out of 2017 and the covid season. Guess it's better than 86. 😅
Don’t sleep on Milwaukee. Tampa Bay of the NL, they know what they’re doing over here. Some steps forward by last year’s rookies and this team could make some noise come Sept/Oct.
Seems like they are high on the comeback from historically dominant teams like the Yankees and cardinals, and are really sleeping on up and comers like cubs reds and even the O’s who won 100 games lol, seems kinda odd
The Cubs are a 3rd place team imo. Them and the Giants are mid to the core.
i think if the cubs add belly and snell they might be the team to beat coming from a cards fan, if not on paper i think the cardinals are probably more talented but let’s see if people stay healthy/don’t fall off a cliff again
@@sfcSpidey more talented 🤣🤣 cubs had 3 gold gloves last year, steele finished top 3 cy young, came second in the division after being projected 4th and 7 of the top 100 prospects in baseball. i could literally keep going what do you mean more talented 😭😭
@@airwicknem we all have our perspectives i can see why you feel that way…from my perspective we still have goldy and nado i think jordan walker will be a stud gorman if he stays healthy same donovan noot wilson it’s a long line up starting pitching i think cubs are better im hoping to see a game in wrigley this year…but good luck on the season
Yankees added Juan Soto, Cardinals added a starting rotation. Cubs have added Imanaga and haven't brought back Bellinger, the Reds were not that good, 77 pythag wins, and the Orioles weren't as good as 101 wins would suggest either, they had 94 pythag wins.
Marc when the season starts up again I really loved when you did 3 games in 24 hours More or those type videos PLEASE
The Dodgers haven’t won since 88. Mets haven’t won since 86. What’s the problem with the Mets Marc?
@gregdiamond6023 they suck... just like the dodgers. Pretty easy logic to follow I think
That's not logical more like rational,logical thinkers gather as much information as possible and asses the facts, if u had done so u would admit that Overall the Dodgers have been regular season Beasts for quite a while and have been in the postseason every year for a decade since new owners and boast Nineteen Pennants 7 WS titles 8 if u count the one they were cheated out of in 2017 by the Houston 🗑️ trashcan bangers. 16:28 16:28
@@DogerslLakersKingsRamsLA Don’t cry. I don’t care how many times they’ve been to the postseason or what beasts they are during the regular season. It you want cry with the excuse that they were cheated one year. What about this decade of postseason failure. They choke every year and their billion dollar spending spree won’t change that. They haven’t won in 36 years.
Marc out here randomly hating the Marlins LOL I do love the content though
As a marlins fan, it triggered me. I know this team is tough to watch, even harder to be a fan… but damn! We still have good pitching Eury, Luzardo, Braxton, Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, Sixto ** 😂
@@Tony97548exactly. Lets go Marlins
As a Tigers fan I honestly think we will win more games than last year and we won 78 last year. I can see us going 81-81 or higher. Not even trying to be biased but I think we can win the division as well. I think this projection is poor. I don’t see how we would be projected to be worse than last year
Marc can u a make a video looking at your free agent predictions and see how you did?
Even as a Blue Jays fan, I gotta admit, I'm not too confident in them this year unless we sign some bats. Sure JT and IKF are nice to have as DH and Utility guy respectively, our pitching is in a good spot imo, but our offence needs some improvements
Marc, the ALC is not wide open. You bought into the media hype that the additions of Wacha, Lugo, and Renfroe are going to make the Royals a playoff team. They should win about 70 games. And as for the Twins, losing Sonny will hurt, yes, but we also should expect bounce backs from Correa and Buck, plus with a full year of Royce, Julien, and Wallner, our offense will be fine. Plus, Ryan and Ober looked good last year at times, and with Paddack as the 4th starter, we will be fine there. Our pen is going to be silly good, and even if our starters struggle, we have prospect capital to make a move at the deadline
as a royals fan i agree the twins are still locks to win the div but i do believe we can win at least 75-80 games
@@bradyerker I think 70 is reasonable because you guys won 56 last year I believe. I just find it hard to believe that you guys think you will improve by 20 wins
@@bennettdean7555 we finished the year playing like an 80 win team over the least month or so, and our record is a bit deceiving. our base runs record was 66-96, so really we are improving by 10-15 wins. with a new pitching staff and breakout performances we could definitely be in that 80 win range
Given the lack of market action, I'd be happy if the nats were around the same as last year...it's also the last year of that ridiculous corbin contract
9:40 lil bro he IS NOT bad 🙏😭 bro humbled you look how he is playing
I agree with your take on the nationals
Your making me love baseball Marc!
Such a great sport
Lux is going to be LA's shortstop...and he's going to open eyes. Nice try throwing shade over the Dodgers' 2020 LEGITIMATE title. The Dodgers don't struggle in the regular season, they typically struggle in the playoffs and if memory serves me correct, the 2020 playoffs were NOT abbreviated. The Dodgers won just as many playoff games in 2020 as any other team since the expansion of the playoffs has had to win....and they had to do all of it on the road, so can it!
Yankee fan here, I sincerely have the Orioles as my first place AL East team. They’re only getting better, more complete and more experienced. While I liked our offseason and we addressed how thin the outfield was, I just don’t think we have enough across the whole roster to outdo the Os.
How are they more experienced than the Yankees dumbass?
Lol Yankees fan here get ready for good pitching and dominant hitting. This will be the Yankees best season in a while.
@@TonyMontana-is6qd I have a feeling too. The lineup is LONG, and we can finally have alternating righties and lefties again
“Degrom’s not gonna pitch” Literally threw yesterday
😂
I think they’re saying August, barring any setbacks.
11:10 they had pitching it just kept getting injured last season
What’s the specific reasoning for the Astros having a “down year”? Solid lineup, with no players really declining. Outstanding back end of the bullpen. We have so many starters we don’t even know who will make the 5 or 6 man rotation. SP’s - Verlander Valdez Javier Brown Urquidy France McCullers (Mid season) Garcia (Mid season) The only question is middle relief, in which is still not terrible. Relievers- Seth Martinez Montero Bielak Dubin Sousa (Forrest Whitley most likely) Back end- Bryan Abreu Pressly Hader Just curious.
Good argument tbh. I agree with you
2023 was a down year.
@@myitbos1335 Astros won the division (which this video is about) and went 7 games in the ALCS. Not winning the AL is a “down year?” 😆
@@Nicholas-HTX Didn't win 100 games. Didn't go to the Series. Yep. That's a down year.
@@myitbos1335 pretty good problem to have when your team’s “down year” is making it to final 4 teams.
the "alec bohm stinks" aged like milk. maybe it's just a hotstreak but a .358 doesn't seem that bad
Pirates bouta surprise everyone. Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Henry Davis are gonna take huge steps if they can stay healthy. I think pirates can make a wild card spot only problem would be our starting pitching, our bullpen is great and our offence I think is gonna be amazing
The Reds won 82 games with the likes of Luke Weaver, Ben Livley, Brett Kennedy, Conor Overton, etc throwing a bunch of innings. I think the reds can be better than 78 wins with a healthy starting rotation
I agree
Reds have an insane offense especially with how young they are. Also a completely healthy rotation isn't even that bad. I'd definitely say we're in the running to win the division.
@@noahverhoff6203Agree I think we might be able to win it with about 88 wins
No respect for the dodgers saying last time they won was 88 … 2020 was a ring no matter what people say
Nope
@@MNDPANTERA Was your team's failure real?
As a Cardinals fan, I agree with the assessment of our rotation. Outside of Sonny Gray, a great signing, the rotation has an upside of mid and a HUGE DOWNSIDE. Myles Mikolas as your #2 is not a playoff rotation so even if you win the division you aren't going anywhere. The Lynn and Gibson signings were very weird because they both seem like guys that would have still been available now in February and they were signed almost immediately. That took up two rotation slots before you even knew what the pitching market was going to look like. They didn't have the flexibility to sign someone whose price was lower than expected or make a trade for someone who was available for a reasonable return. Marmol is not a top manager in the league, and I'm starting to have severe questions about the front office as well. They have made some great acquisitions in the past, but maybe the league has passed them by at this point. I'm a Cardinals optimist so I can see the team winning 90-95 games and the division if they get healthy seasons from their key players, but I could also see them as a third place team hovering around .500 if things don't work out for them. I don't see a repeat of last year's sub .500 season and if that happens they need to clean house in the front office, manager, coaches, and older players to rebuild with new leadership around the young core that they have been building.
Why do we still question how good the astros are??? Adding Yainer diaz as a starting catcher that alone gives us 10 more wins. Pitching struggled at the end of the season but theyll be back and rested and ready to go. Altuve wont be injured before the season. Yordan will do yordan things and hopefully be healthy the whole season. We now have one of the best closers in baseball to pack it up in the 9th. And theres more
You seem to ignore the fact that the Dodgers won the 2020.
I agree, I am skeptical of the Cardinals this season. I would want Cubs/Brewers on top, but I am a Yeli/Belli fan!
With reds young pitching coming back this year I really think that they missed on the reds. Definitely going to be a team to keep an eye on
Numbers may not lie but guts over numbers is the way to go sometimes
They lost me when the Orioles went from 101 wins to 87 after getting better
Yeah as a Yankees fan I feel like were definitely gonna have a good season but it’s gonna really hard to take the division from them I think there the front runner as it stands right now
Probably expecting a sophomore slump I guess
I think it’s more about the division evening out then the orioles necessarily getting worse. They have all the AL East teams finishing above 80 wins, which means it’s hard to have someone win over 95 games
their offense is average, they got so lucky last year, they won so many close games
1, projections are inherently conservative, its giving you a 50th percentile outcome and rookies are hard to project of which the Orioles are going to have a few. 2. The Orioles had 94 pythag wins, they weren't a 101 win talent team. 3. The AL East is fucking stacked, 87 is a lot when the bottom team is projected for 80 wins.
You said the Dodgers haven't won the World Series since 1988 but they won it 2020
Mickey Mouse world series in a 60 game season
@@DumbTigerthat’s funny, what were the other teams’ excuses?
@@Perfectly_Cromulent351 I don’t know but I do know they haven’t won one in a 162 game season since 1988 🤷♂️
@@DumbTiger funny how no one holds that against all the other shortened season World Series winners.
@@Perfectly_Cromulent351 that’s because the only other 2 shortened seasons to have a World Series was in 1972 and 1981 which would you look at that 1981 was the Dodgers. The other one is the Athletics but they got their own problems right now.
Why did you say the Dodgers haven’t won a ws since 88?
“Dodgers haven’t won since 1988” … oh gawd give me a break .. I used to like your channel but that comment is just ridiculous. Every team had a chance to win . But since it was the dodgers , I guess it doesn’t count 🙄
Mariners slept on
Feels like the cardinals are projected towards their ceiling. With the pitching, they’re gonna have to out hit people a lot
Yeah, they seem like a sub 500 team to me. But who knows? They have a lot of young players to look at and their pitching may be better than we think...then again, I might win the lottery without buying a ticket...LOL
Did Marc just post twice in one week
“Phillies bullpen is ok” they had a top 5 bullpen last year and didn’t lose anyone but go off Mark
Padres are slept on still a playoff of team
Preseason rankings always hate the Orioles I dunno why
lol I love the hate that Mark has for the Braves. It feels good. Go Braves! 😎
Definitely a bounce back year for Houston and those boys were one game away from the WS so you know what that means.
Gonna lose to the best team in Texas again 😉
@@bon3lesspaghetti848 nobody believes that... you're like the Nationals. We are not the same.
@@PaulWheelockyou have 2* rings to their one you are in the same class
lolololololololololo@@Mostillist
@@Mostillist Houston has played in 4 world series since 2017 winning 2 while Texas has made the playoffs 1 time, yes while winning the world series, but still not the same
You were wondering about the (lower than expected) projection for the Phillies but when you described some of their players, you used words like "ok", "fine" and even "stinks". After Harper, there's gonna be a lot of crossing fingers to get results from that lineup.
This seems like an uninformed take.
@@OneEightTwoZero outside the top four in the lineup ( Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos ) they're kinda mediocre
Pls react to the mlb top 100 list. Your opinions on prospects are interesting asf.
my rankings sorry if i did math worng i did this all in my head AL EAST 1 yankeas 96-66 2 BAL 93-69 3 TOR 89-73 4 TB 84-78 5 BOS 80-82 AL CENTREL 1 twins 87-75 2 tigers 83-79 3 royals 77-85 4 GUA 75-87 5 chw 68-94 AL WEST 1 TEX 99-63 2 SEA 94-68 3 HOU 91-71 4 LAA 70-92 5 oak 57-105 NL EAST 1 ATL 104-58 2 PHI 100-62 3 NYM 82-80 4 miami 78-84 5 nats 76-86 NL CENTREL 1 reds 92-70 2 chc 85-77 3 STL 81-81 4 MIL 79-83 5 pit 76-86 NL WEST 1 LAD 108-54 2 SF 89-73 3 SD 84-78 4 AZ 83-79 5 col - 59-103
Don't see Seattle winning more than 90. The Astros are fully healthy and got better, one of the best teams in baseball on paper. Don't see philly winning 100 games with that mediocre lineup outside of the top four. Reds ain't winning 92 games with that rotation, adding crap pitchers doesn't make them better
As a nats fan, I am currently crying in my corner
There’s no way we’re worse than oakland
If we can go .500 this season, ill consider it a success. If our farm system can stay healthy and our star players can shine, I think 2025 we can at least be a Wild Card team. Our pitching is a big issue though. Wish we'd sign Trevor Bauer for cheap
At least yall got a World Series recently. The farm system is looking great too.
Srry dude
@@ravenclawnatsfan exactly, much better than the white sox too
Reds 4th in the central is absolutely insane
No kidding. The way I see it they undoubtably have the highest ceiling in the NL Central
@@zacktheexception1198 That doesn't mean they're likely to hit that ceiling. They also have one of the lowest floors. The projections are just trying to guess the 50th percentile outcome.
There floor was probably closer to last year unless all there pitching is injured again they where 28th best n pitching
Marc you hate the Dodgers way too much for a Mets fan, what the hell have we ever done to you really?
he's salty about the Dodgers signing Ohtani probably lol
I think the Orioles do regress to an 85-90 win team, I just don’t know if the Jays lineup has enough thump to win that many. Unless they sign Chapman and he has a bounce back season but Bellinger and Soler or JD Martinez felt like their best options and they got neither
How do the orioles regress when the just went out and add burnes and their young players only get better. Also they could be adding Holliday and Mayo later in the season
@@sammurray8525it’s less about the orioles regressing and more about the division evening out. The Red Sox are the worst team but they’re not so bad that they’ll lose 100+ games, the rays always seem to find a way to be good, the blue jays have had the talent for years it’s just a matter of them actually performing, the Yankees have gotten significantly better, and it’s not unfathomable to think the orioles overperformed and could regress. It’s not an automatic that their players all improve and it’s certainly not an automatic that Holliday is great immediately. I still would put Baltimore as the best team in the division but it’s not as wild a take as it seems
Honestly I think the marlins will do better than expected . Staff of pretty intact Sandy still being out wasn’t in cy young form and struggled last season and the closers were awful and costed the marlins games last season .
As a die-hard Jays fan am shocked, guess it is predicting a Jays big offensive bounceback, but we still dont have a four-hole guy. I love my birds but I see us as the fourth-best team in the al east as of our roster ATM
It’s unbelievable how underrated the cubs are especially after the last half of there season. I think they will at least be 10-15 games above 500. They should get to the playoffs but they most definitely won’t win the World Series. Most likely the Dodgers will considering they got Shohei Ohtani.
A's fan. Yes, I do still love my time, but it's like having a loved one in hospice care. I'm just enjoying the shell of what used to be and trying to accept the inevitable end.
Gavin Lux will be the dodgers shortstop
we defo won a chip in 2020 mark, c’mon give us some credit!! and we winning this chip this year. go dodgers!
Royals will be better in 2024. They’re going to be a dark horse pick for me in the AL. And as a long suffering Rockies fan, I’m not surprised nobody has faith in us. It’s a rebuild year, so I can’t have expectations. I don’t think we lose another 100 games, but it’s not gonna be much better. I just need to see if the rebuild is trending in the right direction. Also, put some respect on Brenton Doyle. Once he gets his bat right, he’ll be an All-Star! Dude won the Gold Glove in CF, for goodness sake!
I think people are underratting how important Monty was to the Rangers run. If they didn't have him in the rotation, imo they for sure don't make the WS, let alone win it.
Reds are gonna win their division with about 90 wins. Bookmark this.
How are the padres 4th in nl west bro like we have Tatis,machado,ha seong Kim,bougarts,yu darvish and joe musgrove like wth
The Rays were projected to have more wins than the Orioles but finish behind them in the standings?
As a blue jays fan, I do not believe we’re going to finish 2nd in out division. We’re gonna blow this year because management haven’t done anything to help improve the team
Too low on orioles, losing over 10 games more from last season While adding a top 5 arm and that young core is just going to develop even more. That just doesn’t seem right
3 teams I would play the over on are the Royals, Nationals & Reds
how does alec bohm suck, he has gotten pretty good at third had 20 hr and near 100 rbi and batted like .280
He doesnt profile well offensively at 1st and 3rd and wasnt good defensively anywhere..yeah he got better at 3rd but thats not saying much and him as a first baseman should never happen again. I love the guy though and he's not a finished product I still see more pop to come which will then make me say "Marc! Wth do you mean Bohm stinks" lol but for now I kinda understand where hes coming from....kinda.
By stats like OPS+ and WRC+ he is pretty much just perfectly average. He also isn’t that good on defense and he doesn’t run the bases well either. Basically the only thing he does at an above average level is hit singles
bohm is good and is only gonna get better this dude a mets fan
As a jays fan, we’ve had a shit off season, I’m very disappointed in them.
HAW HAW
The Reds need a good manager
I feel like Joe Maddon would be a good fit there
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles finished 4th honestly, they are a very young team that over exceeded expectations last year, and only addressed Burnes to their pitching. I can definitely see them taking a step back. I hope they prove me wrong, but I’ve seen many young teams in all sports do that
Orioles definitely played above expectations last season but they addressed the weakest part of their roster now by adding Burnes and warming up G Rod. I think they are due for a bit of a regression lacking star power but not much. I still see them at the very least finishing 2nd as I see the Rays and Jays regressing. In 2023 the Rays rode so much on the momentum of that insane start but in the absence of that they’re a high 80s win team which is what I expect them to finish around.
As a Twins fan- we got worse. Our ownership group cut our payroll in anticipation for a TV deal that ended up not happening, and then they announced they still aren't spending the money on players. The Pohlads don't care about winning, just about building a good enough roster to still sell tickets.
Marc, I can’t tell you this with confidence, the Astros will not be having a down year
Cards in 1st is blasphemous so is Reds in 4th. I'd argue the brewers could very well finish in last place. Pirates also slept on. Also kind of funny O'Neil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz are in the same division I feel like they're clones 😂😂
Brewers are better than the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals still! Reds are gonna take a huge step back this year I think. Steer and McLain are not as good as they were last year 🤷🏻♂️
Idk about the Reds taking a step back, but I can see the Brewers finishing above all those teams you mentioned. However I can also see them selling off 1 or 2 more key pieces and finishing last place. Players Like Willy Adames, and Devin Williams.@@ImMacco
Giants could use new ownership/management. They're just REALLY against spending money. I know the Farhan Avengers would argue they're willing to spend money, but idk. With Yamamoto and Ohtani they needed to be the highest bidder to stand a chance and they didn't do that. They just want to be active enough to keep fans off their back, but not too active. Don't want to be stuck paying someone 🤦
It’s Marc Season!!!