Poker Math Every Player Needs to Know

2024 ж. 3 Мам.
256 408 Рет қаралды

GTO Wizard helps you to learn GTO and analyze your game.
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Tombos21 delves into the fundamental poker math every player should know! Learn why every poker metric is secretly a risk-reward formula in disguise.
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Poker Math Every Player Needs to Know:
0:00 Intro
2:20 Building Intuition
4:53 Risk & Reward
6:45 Pot Odds
9:52 Value-To-Bluff Ratio
11:21 Alpha
13:35 MDF
14:51 Putting It All Together
18:15 GTO Wizard Example
21:43 Calculating Edges
27:40 Summary
#GTOWizard #GTO #poker

Пікірлер
  • Did you learn something new? What would you like to see Tombos21 cover next?

    @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
    • Yes! I learned I need more gin in my tonic 👍

      @stevefillier6951@stevefillier69514 ай бұрын
    • Tombos21 is the best coach))) can he make please video about how deadmoney impact in cash game, for example rush cash cash drops (10bb deadmoney), maybe ante games etc

      @postmur625@postmur6254 ай бұрын
    • Quantum Physics

      @zeouhu7345@zeouhu73454 ай бұрын
    • Loved it, I'm not sure if already has a video converting this, but I would like to know if I close my eyes and always play GTO would I be profitable in a field that plays way off the GTO, let's supose I play in a field that never bluffs, and I play GTO calling the MDF will I be profitable in the long run?

      @luizfelipeap@luizfelipeap4 ай бұрын
    • range advantage, nut adventage and that kind of stuff

      @modeob88@modeob884 ай бұрын
  • >start watching the video as a beginner >10 seconds in: "what do these 5 things I've never heard about have in common" >bruh 💀

    @fisher00769@fisher007694 ай бұрын
    • Like man I’m just trying to get better at poker not study theory 😭

      @elias60@elias604 ай бұрын
  • For the first question I need more information? Am I holding Kings? If I'm holding Kings the correct answer is the flop will contain an Ace 100% of the time. Fact.

    @AtGame7@AtGame73 ай бұрын
    • Exactly my thought 😂

      @schwarzer0se463@schwarzer0se46327 күн бұрын
    • Then shove pre flop

      @If6wasnine@If6wasnine23 күн бұрын
    • @@If6wasnine when shoving all in preflop with kings the caller will have aces 125% of the time. fact.

      @mikecheckov5365@mikecheckov536510 күн бұрын
    • Yah theres no math to truth

      @MrCEO-lp5sh@MrCEO-lp5sh10 күн бұрын
  • This is a comprehensive video on the science behind poker. Mastering both science and art is what makes any poker player greater than having only one, good job

    @kelvinlee7550@kelvinlee75504 ай бұрын
    • poker is not an art

      @nicolasspray@nicolasspray4 ай бұрын
    • it is. even if what a pure gto/math game, it's still art imo. the hard science and statistics is working in tandem with the flawed human element@@nicolasspray

      @sov3273@sov32733 ай бұрын
  • I love how in 21:28 "% of hero calling after raise" just ties in perfectly with you guys' True MDF video lol where we defend more than MDF suggests vs a raise suddenly the pieces of the puzzle fall into place ✅

    @josyvan7680@josyvan7680Күн бұрын
  • Man thanks a lot for this ! this is very good material

    @gillesabraham2257@gillesabraham22573 ай бұрын
  • Do you have a longer video on how to apply the math to your strategy? Kind of how you touched on the BB changing strategy based on value-to-bluff ratio at 11:06

    @raijin5280@raijin52803 ай бұрын
  • Err in short, Great breakdowns! Subbed.

    @DayOfVictory007@DayOfVictory0074 ай бұрын
  • Amazing content guys! Thank you!

    @Oque.Nos.Somoss@Oque.Nos.Somoss4 ай бұрын
  • i need more dozes of these Math. love it!!

    @x78963xx@x78963xx3 ай бұрын
  • A really great video tutorial

    @garnetbelik4190@garnetbelik41903 ай бұрын
  • Nice video !

    @wevertonsoaresdossantos1405@wevertonsoaresdossantos14054 ай бұрын
  • I must be the first person watching this video! I should go play poker with all this run good.

    @rileygibbs3128@rileygibbs31284 ай бұрын
  • Please help, I'm crazy confused by the calculations at about 25:38 How is EV Bluff Raise = Edge (Risk+Reward)? Wouldn't that mean that the more I risk, the better my EV? So if I raise to 1000 pots, it's EV Bluff Raise = 100.2 pots? I can't make sense out of it. It seems way more profitable to just call, because I put less risk into the same amount of possible profit. So what's off with my thinking here? Where am I going wrong with my logic?

    @JakGruen@JakGruen20 күн бұрын
    • They can only fold a maximum of 100% of their range, so in practice your "edge" caps out. You can't have a 10% edge while risking 1000x pot, since that would likely require them folding more than 100% of the time.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard18 күн бұрын
  • Such an interesting video.

    @AlessandroOrlandi83@AlessandroOrlandi832 ай бұрын
  • Perhaps it is a technical quibble but if someone overfolds or over bluffs by 10% their frequency doesn’t go from 33% to 43% but to 36.3%. 10% of 33%. Imagine a limit game where the river bet is 10% of pot. The bettor should bluff about 8% of the time. If he underbluffs by 10% he only bluffs 7% not the impossible negative 2%

    @lvzee@lvzee4 ай бұрын
    • You can define the input over-bluffing or overfolding proportionally instead, but the resulting output equation isn't as clean.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • Excelent video

    @lucasdesiqueira6122@lucasdesiqueira61224 ай бұрын
  • I really love the art style in this!

    @nawhead@nawhead3 ай бұрын
  • cool video and all but i think i'll stick to flopping royal flushes every hand

    @sentimenta1664@sentimenta16644 ай бұрын
  • Here I was just expecting a 4X, 2x outs calculation vid and got a intro to stats class.

    @hectorlopez4075@hectorlopez407528 күн бұрын
  • Hi @GTOWizard! Excuse me but I am very confused in the example @19:04. I don t understand why OTF, BB checks before SB, and SB checks behind. Why does BB is first to speak? Anyway great content, love the simple way you put it. Thanks

    @mcc1200@mcc12004 ай бұрын
    • found it :)) its a heads-up sim

      @mcc1200@mcc12004 ай бұрын
    • I once had this on 888 poker. BB vs SB, I was the BB. after the flop the software decided it was my turn instead of the SB. I was completely flabbergasted. Eventually emailed support and told them I want my buy in back or i post it on 2+2. They gave back my buy in and a little extra, lol

      @ClockBain-ii4rh@ClockBain-ii4rh3 ай бұрын
  • thank u

    @parabellumCH@parabellumCH4 ай бұрын
  • I was under the impression this would be for people (like myself) who struggle with math lol

    @elias60@elias604 ай бұрын
    • are you implying that this math is difficult? honest question.

      @jeffe2267@jeffe22672 ай бұрын
    • @@jeffe2267 for me it is yes I’m dyslexic

      @elias60@elias602 ай бұрын
  • I shared this exact same theory of raising over calling in these exact same spots back when i was purely a pro poker player in 2009 and all the other pros at the time thought i was insane and just plain wrong. Didnt stop me from using it and crushing though. Especially in mtts, i made every online major Final table on every major site and won a ton of MTTs

    @Alexandertygreat@Alexandertygreat4 ай бұрын
    • how much money have you made in your career if you dont mind me asking? just curious

      @mr.annoying9453@mr.annoying94533 ай бұрын
    • @@mr.annoying9453 hard to have exact amount, but i played professionally from 2006-2010, both cash and MTTs. Between 1.5 n 1.7 mil USD profit. Quit in 2011, didnt play again til sept of last year. Made every major online ft in every major MTT yearly on pp, UB, FT and stars. Best placing for 4th twice. Had couple 6figure scores live including 2 wins. Won alot of online mtts, crushed 6max NLHE on stars and ft from 2007-2009 2-4- 5/10 mainly, with occasional shot at 25/50 n 50/100. Crushed 10/20 thru 50/100 at the commerce mainly and live at the bike and would play wynn and bellagio couple weekends a month and during the series. Quit in 2010 after breaking up with my gf and moved back to Canada. She was a pro on fulltilt. Prob tmi lol i quit due to burn out as well and never enjoyed being in casinos, so toxic and depressing.

      @Alexandertygreat@Alexandertygreat3 ай бұрын
    • Lmao people like this why did you stop playing if you were so good

      @mike8771ify@mike8771ify3 ай бұрын
    • And now he is commenting on KZhead instead of living it up

      @barygol@barygol3 ай бұрын
    • @@barygol lol who said i wasnt "living it up" there is life after poker. Just a game i was better then most at, i moved on to other things and guess what im still better then most.

      @Alexandertygreat@Alexandertygreat3 ай бұрын
  • Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.

    @omqbrown9041@omqbrown90414 ай бұрын
  • Hello GTO Wizard! Is there a way to compute for MDF without getting the alpha? For the example in 14:47 I tried doing 6.5 / 6.5 + 11.5 = 36% which isn’t the 43% of 1-alpha Not sure if I’m understanding this correctly.. Thank you in advance! And love the videos. Cheers!

    @orange_caesar@orange_caesar4 ай бұрын
    • Yes, you can do 5 (size of pot before villian bets) divided by 11.5 (size of pot after villian bets). But I think MDF is only useful to ensure you don't start hugely over folding over a number of hands, and not a good way to decide whether to call or not in a particular situation.

      @jambojack@jambojack4 ай бұрын
    • You can calculate MDF directly for the initial bet using this formula: MDF = pot / (bet + pot) -> 5 / (6.5 + 5) = 43% = MDF Facing a raise, like in example 17:56 you have to account for dead money in the pot. In this case the starting pot is (5 + 2.5) = 7.5 because SB already bet 2.5 and that belongs to the pot after we raise, and the Bet (Raise) is 12.5. MDF = pot / (bet + pot) -> 7.5 / (7.5 + 12.5) = 37.5% Or more succinctly: MDF = Reward / (Risk + Reward) I recommend calculating Alpha first rather than deriving MDF directly, and understanding the basics of risk and reward make it easier to learn EV and develop an intuitive understanding of what you're risking vs what you're getting. Hope that helps! You can check out our blog for more details: Read more: blog.gtowizard.com/mdf-alpha/

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • Any tips off contents that I can practice these maths concepts more deeply?

    @matheusstotti@matheusstotti4 ай бұрын
    • Do them in your head, make the numbers up and practice. While playing, calculate on every street, especially when you're NOT in the hand.

      @dylanrobbins1245@dylanrobbins12452 ай бұрын
  • Very nice video! Thank you. I watched it just now so not sure if the question has already come up but I was wondering about the 10% over-bluffing and over-folding. Why is it additive? I would have intuitively thought that if the bluff frequency is 33.3% and they are bluffing 10% too much, they are actually bluffing 33.3 % * 1.1 = 36.63 % and NOT 43.3 %. But maybe this is more clear if you get the numbers out from the data base? Can you maybe share the discussion on 2+2?

    @schlauLern@schlauLern4 күн бұрын
    • You can define percentage changes as a relative (33% * 1.1) or absolute (33% + 10%). Both are valid, and if you wanted to define an equation using a relative input you could. I chose to use absolute differences because it made the math cleaner. Here is the 2+2 thread: forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory-amp-gto/theory-question-technical-players-1829120

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizardКүн бұрын
  • It is possible make alla this maths and calculation multitabling on 6 max cash game or zoom tables? I don't think so. There must exist a shortcut or easier way to do this

    @lucabossi7253@lucabossi72533 ай бұрын
    • Nah you just do all your math and decision making away from the table, so when you are multi-tabling you're already studied on your position. Like chess.

      @doktordiklegz@doktordiklegzАй бұрын
  • 18:10 with a 33% pot odds, and a 37.5% defending percentage, how does that work? Does that mean that 37.5% of SB's hands have a 1/3 chance of winning against BB's raise? Do you start calling once you reach the 33% win chance with your hand, or do you call with worse hands to protect against BB's bluffs?

    @shrankai7285@shrankai72854 ай бұрын
    • This is an interesting question, and my sense is that what really matters for the caller are the pot odds. Once villian bets, the only thing that determines whether we can make a profitable call or not is whether our hand is good 33% of the time or more. I believe MDF is not a particularly useful concept in practice.

      @jambojack@jambojack4 ай бұрын
    • Great question. Pot odds tells you how often your hand needs to WIN to break even, whereas MDF tells you how WIDE you need to defend to prevent your opponent from overbluffing. So if they're balanced, you'd call 37.5% of your range, and all of those hands would have minimum 33.3% equity facing the raise. However, it may not always be possible to meet MDF. For example, if villain is underbluffing, you would need to start calling unprofitable hands to meet MDF, which is a bad idea. So Pot Odds takes priority. It's ok to defend less than MDF if your opponent is underbluffing.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • @GTOWizard can you tell me where i can get those cool images from this video)

    @tommymeister9543@tommymeister95434 ай бұрын
    • I bet is IA

      @BenjaminK18335@BenjaminK183354 ай бұрын
    • These were generated with DALLE 3, and some editing from our Graphic team. Glad you liked them! Feel free to reach out to our discord server to get the pics.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • 🤔 🙋 Just so you know, the probability of seeing at least 1 ace on the flop is 21% only if you haven't seen your hand. And it can be expressed like this: 1 - ((4 C 0 * 48 C 3) / (52 C 3)) Once you're dealt a hand though, you've seen 2 cards and now you have to update your information. Assuming you don't have an ace in hand then the probability is expressed like this: 1 - ((4 C 0 * 46 C 3) / (50 C 3)), which is 22.55%. Small difference but I like math. Have a great day. Okay bye. 😁

    @justinbyrge8997@justinbyrge899719 күн бұрын
  • Liking the content so far except for one thing. Math is funny in that there are many ways to get to the same conclusion or at least many ways to wrap your brain around it. The graphics need some work though, even on my 27 inch screen the smaller text is difficult to read. It can all be better the smaller stuff I left guessing is that 57% or 64%.

    @loco4dogg@loco4doggАй бұрын
    • Thanks for the feedback!

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizardАй бұрын
  • Bit confused… you showed the chance of an ace being high card, not an ace being shown on the flop. Otherwise the odds would be same across all cards

    @wolfcake34@wolfcake343 ай бұрын
    • ace being high card is the same as an ace being shown since ace is the highest card

      @ryanpark1219@ryanpark121925 күн бұрын
  • Best poker books? I want to improve at heads up play, and single table tournaments. I would really appreciate if someone could give me a short list

    @lucianozaffaina9853@lucianozaffaina98534 ай бұрын
    • They are almost all outdated in my opinion. You will improve more watching all the videos by GTOwiz and playing with the free version that reading an old book.

      @simonep3443@simonep34438 күн бұрын
  • How do you bet an amount on the flop to get stacks in on the river? I remember seeing a simple formula before but I can’t remember it.

    @paataa5886@paataa58862 ай бұрын
    • You're referring to the geometric bet size, formula here: blog.gtowizard.com/pot-geometry/

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard2 ай бұрын
  • Saben donde puedo tener esta información en español?

    @alexise.floresochoa1482@alexise.floresochoa1482Ай бұрын
  • I have a problem with Method 2: The Easy Way at 25:38. Would increasing the raise to 4x initial pot increase the EV if we assume no influence on the edge to EV = 10 % (4 + 2) = 0.6? At the same time Method 1: The Hard Way at 24:47 calculates EV = 70 % (2) - 30 % (4) = 0.2. The two methods seem to give different answers. Am I doing the math wrong?

    @DirusSC@DirusSC3 ай бұрын
    • You're close. Alpha of a 4x raise is 66.6%. Retaining the 10% edge means they fold 76.6%, not 70%. Hard way: 76.6% (2) - 23.4% (4) = 0.6 Easy way: 10%(2 + 4) = 0.6

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard3 ай бұрын
  • The image on the presentation are too good, some IA there :D

    @modeob88@modeob884 ай бұрын
    • Intelligence Artificial

      @sky_rokit@sky_rokit4 ай бұрын
    • He is most probably french - it would stand for Intelligence Artificielle

      @jynx619@jynx6194 ай бұрын
  • 4:45 well… yes… but… no… Usually you‘d do these calculations assuming you have an Ace already in your hand, otherwise why would you hope for an ace on the flop? If you’re holding an ace that would be a massively losing bet. If that‘s just a bet between two spectators I don‘t really get the point of this example already but yes ofc then the math checks out

    @akantorman1@akantorman14 ай бұрын
  • Is there any good intuition for why MDF > Bluff %? For example, if villain makes a pot-sized bet on the river, they should be bluffing 33% of the time but MDF says we should defend at least 50% of the time, which means we should be defending against a portion of their value bets. What's a good way to think about why that is?

    @gallagherk11@gallagherk11Ай бұрын
    • That's a fun question. The intuition is that when you bluff, you are risking your bet to win the pot. But when you're calling a bet, you risk your call to win their bet and the pot. For that reason, MDF < Pot odds for all bet sizes less than the golden ratio.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizardАй бұрын
    • That makes sense, thank you!

      @gallagherk11@gallagherk11Ай бұрын
  • Im confused about the Ace high flop 4:35. How is it not a even 1/13 like all other cards? Is it because an ace out ranks all other cards thus discounting any sub ace high board? (AKx vs Kxx)

    @MajorBaker710@MajorBaker7102 ай бұрын
    • Yes, each card is equally likely but if you're filtering by the highest card on the flop the math changes

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard2 ай бұрын
  • Can someone explain to me the flopping an ace bit? I don't understand how flopping an ace would be so much more likely than flopping a 6 or jack. It just seems like simple math that any card is just as likely as any other

    @kylebennett4434@kylebennett44344 ай бұрын
    • The Ace bit is saying the odds are over 20% that an Ace would be the highest card post flop. It is just as likely as flopping a 6 or jack, but since an Ace would be the highest card when it shows up, it has the highest probability of being the high card post flop if that makes sense.

      @benjaminbereznak8588@benjaminbereznak85884 ай бұрын
    • It's a slightly misleading chart, stating what % that will be the high card on the board....but that number looks correct for A high, since it will always be the highest card (all the others should have a ~21.7% chance to appear on a flop too). The more interesting thing is that the percentage drops to (assuming the random 2p2 thread I found these numbers in is actually right) 16.88% when you have an single A in your hand (known card). So depending on the game stakes/ effective stacks, it might be more profitable to fold all your Ax hands to discourage flops (or better yet, opening some much larger bb amount to take it down without seeing a flop). It's actually a very interesting proposition, as the above mentioned play of winning preflop comes into factor. Then the reality vs probability factors that players are more likely to take flops/defend with Ax holdings. Looks profitable on paper, but closer or even losing in practice.

      @mad1337nes@mad1337nes4 ай бұрын
    • A23, A89 , AKQ OR 222, 234, 235. Do you see it now? If you got a deck of cards at home.. deal some flops and see how often its 5 high board and how often its A high board.

      @kezman82a@kezman82a4 ай бұрын
    • Thanks y'all, makes more sense now. I got a bit confused why he was talking about the % chance an Ace hits on the flop and then showed a chart of the chances of an X high flop. Those are the same thing but only for the Ace, so trying to apply that logic generally threw me off. Appreciate the comments!

      @kylebennett4434@kylebennett44344 ай бұрын
    • @kylebennett4434: Your intuition is correct. The percentage is wrong as it looks at A high flops rather than chances of flop containing an A. Since A high flops doesn't take into account cases where 2 or 3 Aces show up, as well as A + pair, the percentage on screen is actually smaller. The correct one is ~23.5% and it's the same for any card in the deck, as you rightly pointed out. It can be calculated as 4/52+4/51+4/50 (assuming no hole cards).

      @LectiidePokerRo@LectiidePokerRo4 ай бұрын
  • The comment of other player about how holding an A reduce the probability to see this flop make me think that if you want learn to play you Ax well you should first look at Kxx board (most probable board you will see holding an A)

    @karthage3637@karthage36373 ай бұрын
  • good

    @marceloramin3673@marceloramin36734 ай бұрын
  • Why in GTO Wizard Example BB acts before SB? I am very confused with that tbh

    @alexanderkornyukhin7241@alexanderkornyukhin72414 ай бұрын
    • Oh, just realised it is a heads up sim :D

      @alexanderkornyukhin7241@alexanderkornyukhin72414 ай бұрын
    • ​@@alexanderkornyukhin7241if you get confused by that just think "dealer acts last"

      @silencedogood711@silencedogood7114 ай бұрын
  • no longer providing us with the power point file!??

    @conorkleitz6837@conorkleitz68374 ай бұрын
  • I learned implied odds was something else.

    @toppace@toppace2 ай бұрын
  • Hi can someone tell me why do we count our chips in pot odds ? Like in 16:40, vilain asks us to put 10 chips on a pot of 20 (10 chips in the pot + vilain bet), how do we end up with a calculation of 10 / 30 = 1/3 ? Why isn't it 10 / 20 = 1/2 ? Thanks a lot

    @TFFYoutube@TFFYoutube4 ай бұрын
    • You can also count the break even. If you lose ten and gain 20, in a 1/3 odds scenario you would lose ten twice and win 20 once in three runs of the hand, resulting in ev 0

      @hungjon@hungjon4 ай бұрын
    • Check out 2:27 for an intuitive explanation. The basic idea is that you want to win your call back to at least break even. So if you win 1/3 of the new pot, you do just that.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • No hand is safe hand, every hand is winnable hand, and nothing beats luck. Chip count can dictate how you play each hand.

    @V1s10n0fl0v3@V1s10n0fl0v33 ай бұрын
  • Did anyone else wish they only had to listen to this one time to understand it lol has a total beginner it’s not so common sense but I know a couple weeks it’ll be more and more

    @rvoykin@rvoykin13 күн бұрын
  • Im confused when you say 1 minus 62.6% is 37%. Can you explain?

    @emkrisp11@emkrisp114 ай бұрын
    • 1 = 100% obviously. So it is 37,4% actually

      @soghotze@soghotze2 ай бұрын
  • first question regarding profitable bet or not is wrong!!!!! odds of flopping ace is not 21%

    @Chavyyy@Chavyyy4 күн бұрын
  • Hello guys! I didnt understand Alpha concept. If we bet 6,5 in 5 pot. We risk to lose 6,5(bet) + 2(already in pot) = 8,5 And if we win we get only 3bb, because 2 in the bank is ours What is wrong with this logic?

    @MrVeenrok@MrVeenrok4 ай бұрын
    • The logic is wrong because we dont care what we already invested. We only see the pot now and what we win. So we win 5 and invest 6.5. 6.5/6.5+5= 57% it needs to work. This is the "sunk cost fallacy" you fall into.

      @schalke0494@schalke04944 ай бұрын
    • Compare to giving up with a bluff. You still lose that 2bb that you put into the pot earlier. So, if the river decision is to bluff or give up, the money you put in earlier is a sunk cost and doesn't count towards your risk.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • all poker math = 25%. that's what I learned.

    @austinmurphy8932@austinmurphy893214 күн бұрын
  • So you’re getting 3:1 on a call, and you decide you need to be 25% favorite to “break even”. so what you’re telling me is you’re a break even player therefore you’re not winning in the long run if you think like this.

    @taylorwoods8001@taylorwoods80013 ай бұрын
  • 4:42 is confusing me. I must be missing something. How does an Ace come on the flop 21.7% of the time?

    @jtcapperella3938@jtcapperella39383 ай бұрын
    • Probability of flopping an Ace = 1 - probability of NOT flopping an Ace =1 - (48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50) = 21.7%

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard3 ай бұрын
  • Could someone explain exactly how aces have a higher chance to land on the flop? All cards should be equally statistically weighted, so how in the hell can Ace flop 21% while other cards flop with less than 10%?

    @coryaw95@coryaw953 ай бұрын
    • Ace high flop not chance of an ace appearing. Ace is obviously the highest card so if it appears, it will be an ace high flop regardless of the other two cards. A 4 is just as likely to flop as an ace though.

      @berdyderg900@berdyderg9003 ай бұрын
  • I just don’t get why people often start with x:1 as an odds. The bets are rarely given in a simple ratio anyway. I just skip that step.

    @MrNicePotato@MrNicePotato4 ай бұрын
    • Odds tend to be more useful in live settings.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • My lord! If you aren’t a tournament player, I’ll eat a deck of cards. Long division with decimals and remainders on the fly? That’s why tournament players take 20 minutes for each hand they play?

    @realchicagophill@realchicagophill4 ай бұрын
  • Thanks for the video. but idk what calculation you used to get a 21% chance of flopping an ace!? That would mean close to 1 in 5 cards in the deck are aces. I get an average of 8.5% chance roughly.. assuming there are none in your hand; 4/50, 4/49, 4/48 = 8.0, 8.1, 8.3 % for each card on the flop respectively.

    @user-ce9bc5xb2u@user-ce9bc5xb2u4 ай бұрын
    • There are two problems with your approach: Problem 1) You are multiplying OR logic (1st card Ace OR 2nd card Ace OR 3rd card Ace). Problem 2) You are calculating the probability of EXACTLY one Ace, rather than AT LEAST one Ace. **My calculation assumes no information about your hole cards, so drawing from a fresh deck** Convert this from OR logic to AND logic to calculate it correctly: P(At least one Ace) = 1 - P(No Ace) P(At least one Ace) = 1 - (1st card not Ace AND 2nd card not Ace AND 3rd card not Ace). P(At least one Ace) = 1 - (48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50) = 21.7% Or alternatively, the much cleaner solution using combinatorics: Total ways to choose an Ace on the flop = (52 choose 3) - (48 choose 3) Total flops = (52 choose 3) Probability of a at least one ace = [(52 choose 3) - (48 choose 3)] / (52 choose 3) = 21.7% - Here’s the same calculation assuming we hold two non-ace cards: 1 - (46/50 * 45/49 * 44/48) = 22.6% ((50 choose 3)-(46 choose 3))/(50 choose 3) = 22.6% Hope that helps!

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
  • Why would I hit like or subscribe before Ive seen the video?

    @joshuapatrick682@joshuapatrick6824 ай бұрын
  • All this math assumes your opponent is playing this way. If they’re just firing random bluffs with random bets it doesn’t work

    @attackhelicopteridentifier7343@attackhelicopteridentifier734328 күн бұрын
  • So the UKTIMATE question comes down to how MUCH did all this "knowledge" INCREASE the PERFORMANCE of a REAL poker player.

    @fragslap5229@fragslap52294 ай бұрын
    • Ask the opposite question. How many professional players do you know who don't understand basic poker math?

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard4 ай бұрын
    • @@GTOWizard I'd be willing to bet that ANY "professional" poker player could pass an exam on the basic probability of poker hands and how they relate to successful play..

      @fragslap5229@fragslap52294 ай бұрын
  • How can you flop an ace 20% of the time when aces are 1/13th or 7.7%

    @mr8966@mr89663 ай бұрын
    • There are three cards on the flop, not one. Probability of flopping an Ace = 1 - probability of NOT flopping an Ace =1 - (48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50) = 21.7%

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard3 ай бұрын
  • 8min in and i’m lost on the next one

    @stefkleij3891@stefkleij38912 ай бұрын
  • 2hard

    @Passion-tv4mx@Passion-tv4mx2 ай бұрын
  • wait. would human being really calculate 6.5/(6.5+5) on the table?

    @stefenleung@stefenleung2 ай бұрын
    • A good player would recognize that the risk is just slightly bigger than the reward, and would know that they need their opponent to fold just over half the time for this bluff to be profitable.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard2 ай бұрын
    • you can just say no.@@GTOWizard

      @stefenleung@stefenleung2 ай бұрын
  • How to play poker I mean I don't know anything about card games

    @Mstech20047@Mstech200473 ай бұрын
  • The beginning of your video is all black, dark nothing going on

    @davidrebocho2093@davidrebocho20933 ай бұрын
  • Dude lost me when he showed a chart that shows that an Ace flops more often than any other card in the deck. Over time, all cards have an equal chance of being on the floor. An Ace will not show up more often than a different card.

    @ccualumni@ccualumni25 күн бұрын
    • Yes, all cards are equally likely. However that chart displays the probabilities of the TOP card on the flop. Since there are 3 board cars, Ace high flops are obviously more common than 2-high flops.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizard18 күн бұрын
    • @@GTOWizard thank you for the clarification.

      @ccualumni@ccualumni18 күн бұрын
  • Why does gto wizard not consider a 222 flop to be 2 high

    @pwnd785@pwnd7854 ай бұрын
    • bcs is it.

      @modeob88@modeob884 ай бұрын
    • If you and your opponent is going to flop and nobody has a 2, the first card is 2 with 4/48, second 2 is 3/47, third is 2/46. If we multiply it, it is roughly 1 in 20000 that all three cards are going to be 2. However, if it is 6 or 8 player table, the probability of folded players having 2 is significant, so it is even less common. It's almost 0% for this to happen

      @torpeda8766@torpeda87664 ай бұрын
    • @@torpeda8766 that almost 0% happens all fucking days.

      @modeob88@modeob884 ай бұрын
    • @@modeob88 what he’s saying is it’s so low it gets rounded down to zero

      @pwnd785@pwnd7854 ай бұрын
    • @@torpeda8766 This is just incorrect there could be a 20 handed table, and the odds the flop comes out as 222 is exactly the same as if the table is heads up. The reason being that we don't care about the cards we don't know about, and we only know about our hole cards. So it would work out as 4/50 * 3/49 * 2/48 which works out as 1/4900. Or in your example where you somehow know your opponent's hole cards it would be 1/4324...

      @weare2iq376@weare2iq3764 ай бұрын
  • Flop an Ace 20% of the time? Seriously? Heads Up, 9 handed, 6 handed, how many players are seeing the flop, are there raises? The variance here is absurd to assume 20% yet alone encourage someone into believing that a prop bet is profitable, especially when there is no guarantee that the winner will offer the bet again. ...please do tell

    @firedandhandcuffed@firedandhandcuffedАй бұрын
    • The point is to teach people how to calculate implied probabilities. Take a deck of cards and deal out 3 of them. You'll get at least one ace more than 20% of the time. It doesn't matter if the bet is repeated, and it doesn't matter if multiple people enter the pot. Yes, card removal effects can influence these probabilities slightly. Yes, repeated bets matter if you're risking a significant portion of your bankroll, to the point where you need to consider risk-adjusted returns. But none of that has anything to do with the lesson at hand.

      @GTOWizard@GTOWizardАй бұрын
    • Sure it does... You're advertising supposed odds for prospective poker players to implement into their game. Asking a player to pay to see the flop 5 times at a minimum to hit an Ace. That's not reasonable especially in NL. Player bankrolls are destroyed on a daily basis in NL because the overwhelming majority of players DON'T have bankroll discipline regardless of bad beats they still have to avoid in the process. I've worked and played in live poker rooms for over 20 years and your "calculation" is only going to lead players to make multiple trips to the ATM. @@GTOWizard

      @firedandhandcuffed@firedandhandcuffedАй бұрын
  • awful. Why use 2.7 and 5.4 when you could have used 2 and 1?

    @joeblunt6126@joeblunt6126Ай бұрын
  • Bro. 4:1 is 25% so your analysis of Ace on the flop is wrong.

    @bigcountry503@bigcountry5033 ай бұрын
    • Odds and fractions are not the same… with fractions, one of the represented numbers is the total amount… with odds both numbers represented get added together for the total amount… he’s not wrong, and if you need further proof, google this exact phrase… “4:1 odds as a percentage”

      @Cross40Productions@Cross40ProductionsАй бұрын
  • YOU SHOULD USE EASIER NUMBER TO YOUR YOU TUBE!!!

    @vicosam6055@vicosam60553 ай бұрын
  • No disrespect to GTO Wizard but the odds of flopping an Ace is closer to 23.5% 4/52 + 4/51 + 4/50 = 0.235354…

    @DKBlair@DKBlair3 ай бұрын
  • umm no

    @rosenpelovski3998@rosenpelovski39983 ай бұрын
  • Good video but not interactive enough. Next time place some family guy or subway surfers on the side to keep the audience engaged.

    @PGproductionsHD@PGproductionsHD3 ай бұрын
  • the entire poker world needs to focus on an ai or auto game that deals the cards random or almost random and is reviewable after the fact. the entire process front to back needs to have no humans at all.except the players...smart contract crypto can do this, its still not done...ridiculous this is not done yet. imo the industry "giants" pay the developers to not make this...ohhhh its soooo hard. give me a break. poker world is full of ...well..the naive.

    @peterhook2258@peterhook22584 ай бұрын
    • What would be the point of smart contract poker? I could program it, but what’s the reason? Wouldn’t it be slow as shit?

      @wysonlegion5398@wysonlegion53983 ай бұрын
    • Coin poker do it no ?

      @karthage3637@karthage36373 ай бұрын
    • the point sir, is that poker players know that if you involve a central human authority there is always the danger of "knowing the deal" or "seeing the hole cards" always always and also collusion takes meeting at the same table or flooding the tables to by chance get together however live poker prevents some of that by the floor man sitting players (players do not decide which table they sit at). also anonymous player sitting prevents player tracking and heads up displays. you will see white papers come out professing crypto poker that does all this, and they never come to fruition...why? not enough money in it...for the house, for employees or for collusion. peace. A program that autodeals can be random enough, there are proven deal methods already in cryptoworld but and always always always...there is a human central authority? why? why no auto front to back..why why why. a smart coin and smart platform on the blockchain could do allllllll this with a human "manager" never lifting a finger and crypto knowledge already has beaten "hacking the blockchain" so...put auto poker on the blockchain with zero human interaction. have the table rake fuel the growth of the coin. have the smart contract deal the cards and the players engage with no human manager, it will be the most lucrative coin and poker "room" the entire history of humanity has ever seen. mark my words Software that is updatable or manageable by humans , and there will always be cheating...why? one word ..money. why will it be the best coin and smartcoin in the world...one word...money money money. if anyone knows crypto programmers let them know. finally we will have a fair online poker choice and an investment we will all make money from. Peace. Governments and Casinos will have a fit for sure. blockchain poker was headed in that direction..look them up...bye bye why? because it was headed there. they are probably remaking blockchain poker in exactly the way I am sayin and nobody in the world will ever see the riches this platform will produce..nobody knows the value of this except people who know both worlds..poker and crypto. this will be the most valuable crypto coin since bitcoin. they always make "coins" for poker but they always move to managing the table , software and people..why? got to get those humans involved. ridiculous @@wysonlegion5398

      @peterhook2258@peterhook22583 ай бұрын
  • This is like listening to grade 3 teachers droning on with drivel, whilst over analysing and over complicating shit. Total garbage.

    @nevmat1595@nevmat1595Ай бұрын
  • Blahblahblah, blahblah. Blah blah.

    @bennybeeeee@bennybeeeee4 ай бұрын
  • This is over complicated. I have much simpler way of teaching my students the same thing.

    @chezchezchezchez@chezchezchezchez4 ай бұрын
    • Nice what is it?

      @moldyorangepeel@moldyorangepeel4 ай бұрын
    • @@moldyorangepeel want to become a student of mine?

      @chezchezchezchez@chezchezchezchez4 ай бұрын
    • @@chezchezchezchez I'll just listen to the complicated explanations for free thanks though

      @moldyorangepeel@moldyorangepeel4 ай бұрын
    • ​@@chezchezchezchezconsidering you feel the need to withhold your teaching method for one of the most basic concepts in poker, I think anyone with a couple braincells to rub together would pass on hiring you.

      @Tryptameme@Tryptameme4 ай бұрын
    • This sounds like those Nigera e-mail I´ve got recently.

      @kezman82a@kezman82a4 ай бұрын
  • This is a waste of time.

    @SeamyEmail@SeamyEmail4 ай бұрын
  • Get to the point besides babbling nonosense.

    @cctt3083@cctt308329 күн бұрын
KZhead