🔴 Will a Currency Crisis Bring Down China? (w/ Kyle Bass & Raoul Pal)
Hayman Capital founder and CIO Kyle Bass is back. In this riveting conversation, he tells Raoul Pal exactly how, why, and when China’s economy will come unraveled. As China’s growth declines, Bass says that its currency is at the heart of a coming crisis. And with growth rates everywhere decelerating, he believes his China thesis is as relevant an investment thesis as any. Filmed on February 12, 2019 in New York.
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Will a Currency Crisis Bring Down China? (w/ Kyle Bass & Raoul Pal)
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You can watch the next video in this series of interviews about China with Kyle and Raoul here: kzhead.info/sun/jaalYJmwhaOVdI0/bejne.html
@Snow Bird Yes, although they were not released in order on youtube.
Yeas, the Chinese is thinking hard to get the money out of China. Thailand and Cambodia have experienced a *"all inclusive tours"* that was/is basically a money laundering business. Expenses for Thai tours landed directly in Singapore, so the Thai government banned them. China have now stopped what is left of the business from their side (they claims it is for safety reasons, a boat load of ChiCom drowned in Phuket).
You are right, America has 23 trillion dollars national debts and it's keep going up. But you don't think America will fall. How funny it is!
@@RealVisionFinance Only China's market can save America from falling.
@@ssmart2512 They think it with some vision in mind. That is they can grab like 50 % share in a revamp China. U can be broke, but when u have a serious gun, u can walk down the street and make some new deals.
Nice to watch and learn from people who truly did the research! Thank you for these vids Kyle.
Bass has always been racist against chinese people. I have a dossier to prove it
What about gold with a raising dollar
@Donald Kasper He is chinese 50 cent army backed by CCP.
just talk without supportimg with any real facts and figures. by the way, china has been collapsing since 5000 yrs ago. the prediction that she will collapse will always be accurate.
Happy Cakes Gold and the dollar will rise together.
I could listen to those guys forever!
christian neubauer Same here 👍🏻
Yes if you are just comfortable listening to one side of the coin. These two gentlemen are just repeating what everyone else knows, one side of the coin.
@@muvwambesichilindi1083 if you know finance u will see throw one coin to other side
@@muvwambesichilindi1083 so what's the other side of the coin?
Keep it up, Kyle. i hope you keep advising the White House on the China trade issues.
At this point he has to be working with the cia.... He is the exact kind of asset the agency likes
I agree...he gets it.
@@daniel-zh4qc DIA more than likely. We will never know for sure. They are even more hush-hush than the CIA.
All I know is I want that guy on our team.
You're a fool if you really think this clown is advising the White House on anything. lol.
fantastic interview as always with mr bass. Please more with him on china in the future
Kyle Bass has become one of my favorite commentators. Thank you.
Thank you for these videos Kyle.
A basic fact is How much RMB can be printed in China is based on how much US dollar deposited in China,s bank. he reverse the basic logic. At least China have real product to support the value of RMB... Other developed countries just transfer these inflation pain to the third world....
Hello Kyle, I always enjoy to watch your interview. Thank you!
Alexandra, I simply love your picture but not your comment. How can you enjoy from this dude?
Aramsa Wafer I leaned a lot of things from his points. Don’t you like the truth? He is releasing the secret, and that is great! BTW, what did he do to you? Why you don’t like him, I think he is a great man.
Alexandra you obviously don’t live in China . .
These are some of the most interesting and enjoyable interviews. THANKS
so I assume the most asymmetric trade that he was referring to was his ideas on the Hong Kong currency breaking its peg to the dollar. Is this correct?
I would also like to know :D
In this video, Kyle says "4or 5 months from now." Brand new video upload, but it was recorded in February! What gives?
Thank you guys great interview clean smart backed up and research I love it homerun
I didn't watch whole video, but honestly in today world we are already all tied to each other Be it China, USA or EU falls, everything falls, don't expect to stand one side and watch
We are in no way connected to the Chinese banking system China will go by itself. US is still where the money and growth is, especially since we have become energy independent.
@@alfredvinciguerra532 Don't be too arrogant. The US is not as robust economically as you would like to think, currently the world's biggest debtor nation. The US Fed continues to print money like there is no tomorrow.
CCP currency is not worth keeping. Also big thumbs up for Kyle, before Chinese troll bots and angry racist Vietnamese comments flood here.
I wouldnt mind having a lot of Chinese currency. I'd move to China and live the rest of my life enjoying beautiful women and fine living.
the vietnamese ought to be careful: they stand to gain in the trade war as companies offload from the PRC.
80's Nostalgia Guy Look at Venezuela’s situation now, that’s the future if not worse for China if CCP is not overthrown. Do you still think you can enjoy the wealth and submissive women under that occasion? I bet you will be scrambling for a plane ticket to get out of China that time.
b. griffin Vietnam is a place for investment. I have nothing against Vietnamese people actually some of my coworkers are Vietnamese and they are very nice people, it’s the ones who are angry at China’s aggression against Vietnam but choose to be hostilely to anyone Chinese.
It's hard to take a guy seriously when he wears skinny jeans purple socks and sneakers.
Really amazing interview.Very valuable. Kyle clearly knows the true economic conditions of China. Appreciated!
Wow. Great interview! Thanks for this.
😮 WoW ! Awesome interview! Thx for creating those and give it to the world 🌎
I’d love to watch a talk between Kyle Bass and Peter Schiff
I really like these chart. Does anyone know, in which program they were made? Is there a pack for these?
Great dynamic between you two! I hope you both can continue your collected reading of tea leaves.
Very powerful! Thank you for taking time to share.
At 40:47 you said `... I don`t want to be a nearterm Armageddon person ... ` but really, that`s exactly what you have been, and continue to hope for .. You repost this interview about 8 months after it was first recorded and nothing has collapsed as you were fear-mongering back then. The August 2019 decline was just overcome today with a bullish advance and here again you`re trying to fear monger for a bearish event. === IMHO you`ve built a bear case and now you`re busy promoting and selling it in the hope it will soon happen, perhaps because you`re short already. --- No harm done hearing about China`s reserve deficiencies and their urgent need to avoid 100 B of tariffs every year. --- Thanks for the info.
@Jason Cyr When I said `bullish advance` I meant the American markets just cleared the 50 day m.a. --- It`s clear to me that China is declining with all the info the authors of the video presented. But thanks for pointing out that I threw oranges in for comparison when we were talking about apples.
..this is what it is!! excellent Kyle!.. thank you very much for your insightful disclosure!!
Would love to see Kyle Bass vs. China Bull Jim Rogers talking about these exact same issues...
Bass has been wrong on China for 4 years straight. It looks like he is missing a big piece of the puzzle.
@@HR-yd5ib I don't know. If the average investor purchased China exposure via an ETF like FXI (China Large Cap), your 10 year return is 0%, give or take 10-15%. You would have to have been a shrewd market timer.
Wadel Radel wrong or just early?
@@HR-yd5ib He went short currency, he has been somewhat correct, just underperformed the S&P.
@Akin Khoo , having an underdeveloped stock market mught be one of chinas strongest assets. I don't see anything positive coming out of Wallstreet.
When was this recorded?
At 36:07 you said `...the March 1st deadline..` implying that this video was recorded, say in 2019 January but `published on 2019 Sep 6..`, today.
Amazing research & discussion. Thank you. New Sub.
What a treat to hear analysis from insiders with detailed knowledge!
Brilliant analysis. Well done.
wait at 12:02 the argument on bitcoin seems underwhelming. u said china banned it on jan 2017 and how should thatcorrelates with the fall of bitcoin in december? the prices roses till the year end regardless of the ban
BTC trend got picked up by Korea then. But in terms of Chinese demand, it felt off the cliff.
so interesting /this is the best show on
“I’ll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today”
😂🤣😂🤣👏.
totally
Fabulous discussion! Opening my eyes!
Always a pleasure watching Real Vision Finance!
Keep us updated on this please. Great stuff.
I feel like I'm getting a Master Class in international finance. You Rock!
Wonderful discussion! Thank you Raoul and Kyle.
Well we now know what the end game plan was - Corona Virus
what kind of watch is he wearing?
What is "augmented" deficit? 7:11
One of the best interviews I have seen in awhile. Very thought stimulative. Can’t wait for the asymmetric trade!
Any fellow fans trade YANG? Is it properly managed?
Own bitcoin, gold, zilver and products...
Het is silver man 😂😂😂
Thank you sir, always love listing to you guys.
What's the update now?
Wow,sir it's my second time to watch your interview and you open up my
Their strategy is like Satan's lies deceiving all countries
Just fascinating, keep watching this over and over. Just starting to understand economics! Elite's always get away with it always!
excellent discussion, but not a single mention of the obvious right there at the end as to where the money CAN go. What are you going to buy? Gold, Silver... done.
Through dollar hyperdeflation and gold hyperinflation then pin back to gold. Debt paid with a fraction of gov gold reserves. All fiat including US dillar will be as worthless as yuan. Simply loss of faith is all that is required.
Since when did the dollar depend on gold?
@@morenobeyo 1971
@@morenobeyo Gold was is and always has been the only money. The dollar came about backed by gold to make it easier to trade at least until it went off it in to 1972. Nixon took it off the gold standard because he bankrupted the country and the english warships and others were coming over to swap their dollars for the guaranteed gold. Nixon pulled a swifty and took the dollar off the gold standard then turning it from the true reserve currency to a fake reserve currency so he could begin the print to oblivion being now within the final stages until the opposite of Nixon's actions will place it back onto the gold standard, ironically for the same reason. They are bankrupt as with the rest of the globe.
@General Luise Martinbanger I understand why you are thinking this way as it is the norm, however you also hit the very root of the reason Gold, is and always has been within the solution of money and bankrupt fiat. Simply as much as we would love to think mankind can serve one another and live together honestly, history says this requires something tangible and non corruptable as insurance to the deals. Gold is that exact tool when it comes to money and reason it is viemently apposed because it holds fiat and those who want to gain from its manipulation to account. Fiat is what can take many shapes, not that which has global faith sufficient to back it . Fiat now takes more shape electronicly than paper bills in the western world but cash is king many other places. Gold hase global acceptance as value and is transferable. Land also is the second but not easy to transfer from one country to another if the country becomes unstable. It is faith in succesive governments never to overspend and do the wrong thing which has proven to be the demise of an unbacked by gold fiat system time and time again over the centuries while gold has always been universily accepted through this whole time period with never a day it was not considered to store true value. Nixon took the US off the gold standard and as other fiat was pinned to it. He affectively took the globe off of the gold standard, because he bankrupted the US with the vietnam war and the english and other countries battleships were on their way with truckloads of Dollars to swap for their gold. He pulled a swifty ;) and they had to return ro their countries with their devalued paper dollars instead of the gold. To sort it in Gold willhave to be, as there is simply is no other way to clear the global debt. Governments have prepared and are now ready to carry this out. Only one thing missing now, is the painfull part. Hyperdeflation of fiat :( There has to be an enormous gap between the value of gold and fiat before there is enough to reboot the globe. My thinking is between 500 thousand to 1 million per ounce as per the post ww2 German period happening as quickly as 12 months. This could take ten to 15 years of enormous pain. Or it could be done prior to Trumps election if soon by concerted governments efforts. I am praying for the later however for the rich 1%ers they have a lot to lose with a short game and a lot to win on the long game. Both still extremely painfull for the masses though, but the shorter the better rather than the long and protracted.
@General Luise Martinbanger fiat has never worked and never will work because if it's not tied to anything valuable, why would anyone else want it? Why would another country want it, particularly? You add on top of that the point you mentioned about politicians having to be responsible, then you have an additional impossibility.
I continue to be amazed at the level these folks go back and forth with.. it is like getting a phd in international finance. YUP piled higher and deeper. Totally fascinating and what a difference it has given me in what is really happening around the world
This vid is 6 months old! Where's part 2?
Still remember when you had 14k subscribers. These barage of videos lately have doubled your subscribers. Smart move Real Vision!!!
J.B. ………..it got me a board !!!!!!!!
Kyle and Raoul, what do you guys think of Jim Rickards take on the subject?
Great to hear this information. A bit annoying that the film vs published date seems to be 6-7months apart, but I'll take it anyway. Thanks for the info!
One major change is the rail systems now running from China to Spain with gauge switching wheels on the bogies. A few years ago this tanked the Baltic dry Index, a measure of shipping, goods shifted to rail. Cheaper, faster and clear of middle eastern war zones. People were seeing a crash in trade that was not true because the ships were counted but not the trains. It also strikes me that you can ship a lot of diamonds and precious gems on a freight train and it faces less inspection. China's belt and road may be making capital flight very easy.
Great material... I have so many questions, wish there was a discussion group for this. So now fast forward 6-7 months, and we're already through 7, on the way to 7.20/.50/8.00 in USDCNH. Funny that it gave back a quick 10 cents with the announcement of a principals trip to DC in October. Almost seems like the roles have suddenly flipped. Is the reserve problem the reason they are hoarding gold by the trainload?
I'd think that the CCP cronies are hoarding gold for themselves, not for the country and other wealthy tycoons protecting their assets. China loves to scam. They will just keep printing til it blows up. Just my $.50 (army) comment
Superb interview! Thank you!
Could you pls post the data as visuals separately?
That's on a need to know basis.
Why are all these videos posted months after the interview? This was recorded in mid Feb of this year (7 months ago)
@Will Buy It 😭😭😭
Sign up for there service? 180usd a year.
Kyle very informative and very true, hopefully the whole intire world realize it.
Why did he say brexit would be in March when this video is dated sept this year?
I did not think I would understand this, especially because I am in the kitchen cooking while I listen OK - get it - and I am now back tracking the video so my husband can hear it also. Thank you for this informative video!
12:45 both persons say it was the end of 2017 but the chart says start of 2017.
It's now proven: The whole world is run by crooks!
David, I beg to differ. You are referring to the US only. Yes, they are crooks and crooked
Define "crooks". People with power who's only priority is to preserve and extend it? When has the world NOT been run by "crooks"?
@@Aramsa-Khan US only? I don't know how to tell you this gently, you sound brainwashed. You might consider the idea that your government propaganda is lying to you.
@@77goanywhere There is a special kind of evil that seems to arise from transnational global entities calling the shots in what are supposed to be sovereign nations. That is what makes it worse today even though I agree with your central point.
USA INCLUDED
the new great wall is 20 stories high and how many miles long.? sub standard materials=
why didn't you publish this months ago????????
30:50 -- i think he said "should rise" not "survives".
Why does this same interview keep being "re uploaded" ??? This was from way back in February 2019
It's likely politically motivated.
It's not the same video.
There's a delay between when the interview was done and when it gets released on KZhead. To get interviews that are more up-to-date you have to subscribe to the RealVision website.
The news on Alibaba wasn't back in February
@@nerychristian It is, he's wearing the exact same outfit and the video quite literally says "Filmed on February 12, 2019 in New York." in the description. I think this is just the full interview.
Love the dudes laugh when Kyle asks 'You gonna own the pound?'
43.45 what currency are you going own when the dollar falls? Bitcoin
And you redeem it in what currency?
@@Pfsif BTC will always be worth BTC.
Physical gold. Crypto will suffer a similar fate as paper fiat will.
Gold stablecoin.
Kyle , hi , you related to the Thai bhat in this interview. Can you explain why Thai bhat remain s so strong? And who is controlling it ? It has been suggested that the are laundering money, hence their huge reserves Thanks for any comments.
Great video!!!!
What was the thought with the ozzie dollar. ??
Excellent conversation!
Fantastic interview guys!! Jimmy.
I am so glad you guys has this kind of videos. Guys I am an Brazilian Engineer and afther the graduation I went to a Pos-Graduation Level, here in Brazil is quite Common to do that. So, I start to understand Micro, Macro Economy and Financials. In a certain point I start up an American Corporation here in Brazil and I had to be trained in Chicago to understand the Financial System in the company and I used to serve the Automotive Industry in USA. After I went back to Brasil and start it up here. It was Automobile Outsourcing Services and quite revolutionary at that time. So, I would like to say: its is nice to see somebody in US is understand all the Stake we have now over table. I knew Detroit, Ann Arb, all the place were the strong American Automaker Industry was floreshing at that time. So, it is mandatory to the USA to get back and to industrialize its country again. I understand everything you guys is talking about. Please
Absolutely fantastic and scary interview....well done mates
Very informative
I tried to do an exhange of RNB to JPY to pay a Chinese manufacturer and it was not allowed. The Chinese government doesn't allow any exchanged of RNB to any currency. It is highly restricted. Only Chinese government entities can do the exchanged of RNB. So all Chinese manufacturers do commerce in USD. Doesn't this tell you something? Why is this done?
With many multinationals moving out of China or diversifying some of their supply chains to other countries like Vietnam or Thailand, I would assume there would be a lot of yuan selling by these corporations who no longer need yuan in order to pay for expenses. This has probably put extreme pressure on the forex reserves of the PBOC.
Excellent interview.
I am in awe of Kyle Bass. He sees what is really happening.
Why was this just published today, Sept 6, when the interview was done about 6 months ago? Also today 9/6/19, I read on another Blog that the the reserves the Chinese banks have to hold for the RMB was just lowered, making available billions of RMB more, i.e. devaluing their currency
more than that! He said China will wait it out the next 2 years until Trump may be out.
If I may quote Wikipedia: "Chinese banking collapse Starting in July 2015, Bass made a multiyear bet against the Chinese yuan based on a predicted banking collapse in China. Bass would close out his position against the Chinese currency in early 2019 when the predicted devaluation of the currency didn't occur. Bass argued in 2015 that the Chinese banking system was undercapitalized and its foreign reserves would be insufficient in a crisis. Bass predicted a hard landing for the Chinese economy following a bank crisis and a severe devaluation of the Chinese currency, variously given as somewhere between 15%-20% and 30 to 40 percent". Hayman suffered its worst year in 2017 with a loss of 19% due to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan." So according to this interview he is still betting against the yuan and continues to be wrong.
They are ordering their domestic real estate developers and builders not to drop prices. Yup, you can't lower the prices even though you can't sell those empty condos. That's where all the "strength" of RMB is hiding. Do you have an idea how many building and units are sitting empty in the country and how stable is their political power at the moment?
@@sunday8251 wait is that true?
At 00:56 you alluded to HongKong 5 months before it happened without mentioning any names. Very interesting.
what a great discussion! just terrific.
What is happening to USD? Will it crash with repo rates of 10 percent?
Great stuff guys, keep it up
Thanks! Awesome video
Kyle Badass!!!
Kyle Bass is always insightful
Thanks Kyle
Kyle is so well spoken !
I love it when Kyle carefully search through his charts...
there's nowhere to go but dollars. but once a viable alternative appears, the dollar will struggle to compete
That is why the elites want to push a cashless society.
The dollar is in trouble too, because of our federal budget deficit, so the only viable alternative is gold. (Some people see cryptos as an alternative too. Heaven help them because they're believing the devil.)
@@dlwatib Yes, gold!
wow. So much inside and information.
Thanks!
Such great material. Why was this video only posted 6 months after it was filmed.??
You guys are the Best.Communist Had to be STOP.
thank you sir for this truth