Matt Harmon breaks down 2024 NFL Draft prospect Adonai Mitchell's film and RP Profile. Can he be an outlier and outperform his breakout profile. Shoutout to JJ Zachariasan - lateround.com/
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00:00 Intro
00:39 Production profile
03:18 RP profile
07:25 Film breakdown
11:13 Aggressive pro comp
12:11 Cautious pro comp
14:34 NFL outlook
17:15 Outro is important you nerds
If he wasn’t underthrown and overthrown on many of his catches after he beat his man he would have been able to pick up an additional 500 yards at minimum
That had nothing to do with it. X Worthy and JT Sanders were taking a lot of production. And we also wanted to run it a lot because we had J Brooks until he got hurt, more than some of the pass-happy teams in the top 10. I do think he was not targeted enough (see the Washington game in the CFP) but at best we get 200 more yards out of him because of the other players on our roster and scheme we run. We also didn't throw the ball downfield that much compared to the other CFP teams and other top 10 teams, which was head-scratching because we showed we could do that well against Bama and then I never saw more than 1 or 2 downfield throws in future contests. It was interesting.
Love the KZhead format
The only problem im seeing, with regards to split field coverages and Zone turning to pattern match, is that if you know he sucks against Zone coverages, so too will the opposing D coordinators. If they find him even remotely a threat to what they are trying to accomplish, then I suspect opposing D Coordinators will run zone against him.
I watch his tape and he screams 4th best wr prospect to me. He is lacking the production but his tape reminds me of nfl Ceedee. His body control and wiggle on route gets me excited.
And u are?
@@bendup52he's a fan like you 😂
I agree but can't shake the bust thoughs
He’s better than odunze
So when he wiggles you get excited 👀🤣🤣🤣
How does RP account for routes outside of the traditional route tree? Post-corner routes, zig routes, out and up routes. I saw some decent double move routes on AD’s tape.
"other" i believe
Ad Mitchell was underthrown and overthrown by ewers on many of his catches he beat his man which caused him to get tackled instead of running after the catch because he had to slow down and turn back for ball or dive foward to the ground which prevented him from continuing to run after catch
I'm a Texas fan. He was our deep threat. We didn't rely on him much for the short game unless he was in the RZ because he had the best hands on our team. And even then we didn't target him enough in the RZ. There was a nasty slant route he ran in the RZ when we threw it it always turned into a TD. X Worthy was that guy for us who did the short, intermediate, gadget style plays more often. They complemented each other well and we were able to bully other teams with our 12 personnel thanks to also having JT Sanders. His route running is effortless. He does lull you to sleep and often doesn't look like he's moving at top speed. He's deceptively fast.
As a Colts fan, I think Indy is a really good fit for him. We have Downs in the Slot and Pittman as a possession guy, but no one reliable to stretch the field. Pierce and Mitchell can battle for that. Plus Richardson has a canon for an arm. A WR with great hands and speed plus the right attitude can be a beautiful thing. lol
He is the perfect fit for Steichen's offense in Indy. I think Brett Kollman described Steichen's offense in Philly as "simplicity by aggression" where a wr basically faces man coverage once he gets 20+ yards down field, and Steichen knowing this wants to attack downfield. I think Mitchell's skillset is the missing piece to the offense in Indy and will help take it to the next level.
I want to see AD on the Bills
Where would JSN's prospect profile rank in this rookie WR draft class? This class seems stacked!
I actually have specific rankings just for that receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/
If AD Mitchell does get drafted by Buffalo, does that bump him up to the same tier as Brian Thomas Jr. maybe even ahead. Seeing your comments about the lack of QB play hurting his game at Texas, makes it seem like Josh Allen could make him the number 4 WR in this draft class. I know this may also be impacted by where Brian Thomas gets drafted as well.
If BTJ goes to Jags and AD goes to Buffalo I think theyre in the same tier, if BTJ goes to cinci and AD goes to Buffalo I'm taking AD 10/10 times. If the scenario is different than either of those two I don't know what to do lol.
Is Harmen a homer? Could be. Wait til he responds if Buffalo takes him.
We'll see in a few hours.
Was Quinn Ewers particularly bad against zone? Wondering if there’s a potential bump there
I just remembered you do win rate outside of the throw or read so nevermind
Mitchell could be great with zay flowers or with the raiders being a role player and learning from adams
How does his RP compare to Christian Watson? Seem like similar players to me. Good size/speed but a bit raw at the position.
Mitchell isn’t raw. He’s definitely got more polish than Watson did coming out. He’s just got to run with more consistent intensity run after catch, be aware of where defenders are to set up with moves and hit that extra gear better. That’s where Watson has an edge in a way. Still love both as players.
I actually would love for him to go to the Jags. Trevor Limerences' death has been greatly exaggerated. Also just a heads up, might be time to get some tweezers and clean out the mic cover. Great video. I just did a rookie draft last night in a big money league and I took AD at 1.10 and I'm very optimistic about it, so imagine my excitement when I get into work and see this video on my youtube homepage, now i'm even more hyped
Please land on the Chiefs tyvm
How does he compare to Alec Pierce? I have them comped pretty similarly, specifically with bad college QBs
I don't see them as remotely similar players. Pierce was a 9 route or nothing coming out.
All I gathered from this video is that Matt is a Dawes fan 🙌🏼
I think if Buffalo stays at pick 28 then he's the pick. I think Worthy is going to get overdrafted by someone based on his speed but i do think Worthy can be a dynamic player. That means AD Mitchell falls to the Bills
7:54 if AD runs the route and stays outside of the hash, he could be gone.
Does the fact that he had a high % of body catches concern you? I'm otherwise willing to take a punt on the talent with a good landing spot, but being a body catcher is a problem imo.
I’ve got 6 of the top 20 dynasty WRs and can only start 4 of them. I should really be looking at one of the RBs or a QB at my 1.09 but this type of video has me thinking AD as a target…..
Question about route frequency. Why is corner yellow at 4.5% but curl is red at a 14.4%? Is it weighted against specific average route frequency of other receivers?
Yeah that’s spot on, each route is weighted on an individual average
Phenomenal video, thank you Matt. Thought this quote on Lance Zielein's analysis of Mitchell, hit it on the head. "“If he can play every game like he played the Alabama game, he’ll be one the best receivers in the league. They have first-round corners and he gave them problems." You give Mitchell a quarterback like Herbert, Allen, or Mahomes I'd like my chances of him reaching that ceiling of being an alpha WR similar to DeAndre Hopkins.
I saw a guy who has huge ability but is lazy and appears to have a poor attitude. I saw him get handled when an aggressive DB got physical with him. He is not strong for his size. Whatever excuses you want to make for that kind of character, that’s fine. But it shows in many of his games. Where it doesn’t show, he looks like he could be a stud. If he goes to SF and you think Aiyuk spent time in the dog house, lol, he’ll get a life sentence. Maybe one of the Harbaughs will get him and make a man out of him. Or maybe they’ll bury him. This is not a world that it is easy to fix head cases. This is a world that excuses them. Oh well. We’ll see. 1st round natural talent. 5th round attitude. Good luck with that.
Fair criticism but even if that stands as true for the most part, he would still make for a phenomenal WR2 and deep/red-zone threat with a bit more development. I don’t think he’s far off for that at least. Just needs to buy in more with good coaching on a team. If he becomes more physical and focused, watch out.
@@aaiirssjoy the guy has the athleticism and talent to be great. No argument here. I question his head. That’s all. But I am rooting for him to win. As I am all of them.
@@gocraiger As a Colts fan, I like that he will be coached by Reggie Wayne. Reggie has been there and done that and if Mitchell is smart, he can get his head right.
Let's get him on the Dolphins and just see what happens
YPRR can't be used to compare all receivers equally. Some of these college offenses spam short, quick passes to guys and artificially boost stats like YPRR. It doesn't necessarily translate at all to NFL success or draft capital, as we just saw with Troy Franklin. Give AD a sprinkle of screen passes that he never got at Texas, and suddenly his analytical profile isn't so glaring.
The guy develops his first 2 years at UGA, wins two national titles there, but all we see is Texas now. Absurd. This is another Georgia prospect, period.
YOU'RE THE GOAT MATT
If the Chiefs get him every GM needs to resign.
He will thrive in Buffalo , once he adapts to our culture, he could be a gem
God don’t let him go to the Chiefs
AD is no where as physical as DHOP.
Adonai Mitchell has more talent than Rome odunze
*extreme outlier
Those are my favorite kind of outliers
He just laid it out for you why being effective against 2/3 of man/zone/press is a positive correlation to NFL success
I'd take Legette over him all day/everyday